Arkansas State at Southern Miss - 2022 Matchup Preview

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Southern Miss Golden Eagles

Saturday, October 15th 2022 (7:00 PM EDT)
Southern Mississippi -4.5 (53.0)
Southern Miss 20 - Arkansas State: 19 (Sun Belt)

Red Wolves (3 - 9) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (21 - 22 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ARST is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: -7.5 (SP+ USM -10)
Projected Score: ARST: 25 - USM: 27 (52)
USM Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
ARST Travel: 322 miles

Golden Eagles (7 - 6) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Will Hall (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 29 - 27 (31 - 27 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ARST Players
USM Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas State's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Arkansas State vs Grambling	-25.5	57.5	W 58 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/10	Arkansas State at Ohio State	+44.5	68.5	L 12 - 45	U	Y
Sat 9/17	Arkansas State at Memphis	+14.5	64.0	L 32 - 44	O	Y
Sat 9/24	Arkansas State at Old Dominion	+5.0	55.5	L 26 - 29	U	Y
Sat 10/1	Arkansas State vs UL Monroe	-7.5	58.5	W 45 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/8	Arkansas State vs James Madison	+11.5	55.0	L 20 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/15	Arkansas State at Southern Miss	+4.5	53.0	L 19 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/22	Arkansas State at Louisiana	+6.0	51.0	L 18 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/29	Arkansas State vs South Alabama	+9.0	52.5	L 3 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/12	Arkansas State vs Massachusetts	-17.0	49.0	W 35 - 33	O	N
Sat 11/19	Arkansas State at Texas State	+6.0	50.0	L 13 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/26	Arkansas State vs Troy	+13.5	43.5	L 19 - 48	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule

Southern Miss's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Southern Miss vs Liberty	+3.5	50.0	L 27 - 29	O	Y
Sat 9/10	Southern Miss at Miami	+27.5	51.0	L 7 - 30	U	Y
Sat 9/17	Southern Miss vs Northwestern State	-32.5	50.5	W 64 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/24	Southern Miss at Tulane	+12.0	48.5	W 27 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/8	Southern Miss at Troy	+7.0	44.0	L 10 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/15	Southern Miss vs Arkansas State	-4.5	53.0	W 20 - 19	U	N
Sat 10/22	Southern Miss at Texas State	-2.5	43.0	W 20 - 14	U	Y
Thu 10/27	Southern Miss vs Louisiana	+2.5	42.5	W 39 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/5	Southern Miss vs Georgia State	-2.0	47.5	L 14 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/12	Southern Miss at Coastal Carolina	+4.5	48.0	L 23 - 26	O	Y
Sat 11/19	Southern Miss vs South Alabama	+7.5	45.0	L 20 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/26	Southern Miss at UL Monroe	-3.0	49.5	W 20 - 10	U	Y
Sat 12/17	Southern Miss vs Rice	-7.0	46.5	W 38 - 24	O	Y

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	.17	37%	25.2	35%	2.99	81	38%	313	3.37	.35	45%	27.4	48%	43%	4.51	46	1.8	1.2
USM	.02	35%	28.8	35%	2.82	121	38%	146	2.53	.24	42%	27.4	42%	41%	3.11	62.5	2.6	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
USM		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Offense	12	25.2	21	37%	3.37	1.8	21	394	81	313	2.8	36%	63%	35%	38%	27%	.17
USM Defense	12	27.4	27.3	41.6%	3.11	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	42%	41%	19%	.24

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Defense	12	27.4	21.8	45.3%	4.51	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	48%	43%	19%	.35
USM Offense	12	28.8	30.9	35.5%	2.53	2.6	16	266	121	146	3.1	52%	46%	35%	38%	25%	.02

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas State	12	29:07	21.4	32%	29%	5.6	46	1.8	1.2	5.5	2	3	25.6
Southern Miss	12	30:52	15.9	29%	41%	8.2	62.5	2.6	1.9	5.7	1.9	4	29.1

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Offense	12	36%	35%	29.1	81.3	2.8	4	-	2.99	57%	16%	0.79
USM Defense	12	53%	42%	-	-	-	-	.17	3.27	81%	12%	1.05

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Defense	12	52%	48%	-	-	-	-	.38	3.27	70%	12%	1.3
USM Offense	12	52%	35%	38.8	120.8	3.1	8	-.07	2.82	67%	18%	1.02

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Offense	12	63%	38%	25.8	43.8	313.1	7.2	12.1	27	17	.29	1.7	34%	29%	.35	11%	2
USM Defense	12	47%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.32	1.9	32%	32%	.39	7%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Defense	12	48%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.32	1.7	32%	33%	.5	7%	2.3
USM Offense	12	46%	38%	13.3	23.9	145.5	6.1	10.9	14	17	.2	1.6	37%	25%	.12	7%	2.1

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #88
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Arkansas State's 2022 Expected Record: -
Arkansas State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.0 #107
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.7 #89
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.5 #118

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: Southern Miss: 0.75

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -13.0 Southern Miss: -3.5

Southern Miss's Power Ratings
Southern Miss's Power Rating: 0.75 NR
Southern Miss's Offense Rating: NR
Southern Miss's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #85
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Southern Miss's 2022 Expected Record: -
Southern Miss's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.5 #80
Southern Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.0 #107
Southern Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #40

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.8

Arkansas State's 2022 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Southern Miss 27
Arkansas State 25

Projected Total Points: 52

Southern Miss Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.9
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.3

Southern Miss's 2022 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/08	Arkansas State	21	Southern Miss	27	Southern Miss -6.5	Arkansas State	54.5	Under
2024	10/19	Southern Miss	28	Arkansas State	44	Arkansas State -7	Arkansas State	57.0	Over
2023	09/23	Arkansas State	44	Southern Miss	37	Southern Mississippi -7	Arkansas State	46.5	Over
2022	10/15	Southern Miss	20	Arkansas State	19	Southern Mississippi -4.5	Arkansas State	53.0	Under
2008	09/13	Arkansas State	24	Southern Miss	27
2007	11/24	Southern Miss	16	Arkansas State	10
2005	12/20	Arkansas State	19	Southern Miss	31

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Southern Miss	5	0	2 Overs
Arkansas State	2	4	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 4	2 - 2	0 - 1	2 - 1
Road Teams	4 - 3	2 - 2	1 - 2	1 - 0

(#) ARST at (#) USM

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARST	USM
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#107	#80
Perf GradeGrade	#93	#92
OffenseOff	#91	#119
DefenseDef	#108	#41
Spec TeamsST	#55	#118
TalentTal	#88	#85
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Arkansas State Injury Report

Southern Miss Injury Report

Arkansas State on Offense


CategoryCat	ARST Off	USM Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#91	#41
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#89	#40
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Arkansas State Run Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	USM Def
Run GameRun	#112	#16
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#107	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#59

Arkansas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	USM Def
Pass GamePass	#54	#81
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#118	#70
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Southern Miss on Offense


CategoryCat	USM Off	ARST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#119	#108
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#107	#118
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Southern Miss Run Game


CategoryCat	USM Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	#68	#105
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#126	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#120

Southern Miss Pass Game


CategoryCat	USM Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	#117	#108
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#135	#64
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
USM 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'22 Profile: Up to Top G5

ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'22 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in M. M. Roberts Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 7
Southern Miss -4.5 (53.0)
Southern Miss won vs Arkansas State this year (20-19)

Previous Matchups
Southern Miss beat Arkansas State last year (27-21)
Arkansas State beat Southern Miss in 2024 (44-28)
Arkansas State beat Southern Miss in 2023 (44-37)

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Rob Harley (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

USM's OC Sam Gregg (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Southern Miss's Full Roster

USM's DC Austin Armstrong (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD