Troy at Arkansas State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Troy Trojans at Arkansas State Red Wolves

Saturday, October 26th 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Arkansas State -8.5 (50.0) (-275) Open: -7.5 | 51.5
Arkansas State 34 - Troy: 31 (Sun Belt)

Trojans (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Gerad Parker (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (23 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TROY 2nd straight Road Game
ARST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Arkansas State -4.5 (SP+ TROY -3.5)
Projected Score: TROY: 23 - ARST: 28 (51)
ARST Win prob: 71% | Cover: 46%
TROY Travel: 389 miles

Red Wolves (8 - 5) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (11 - 26)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (29 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TROY Players
ARST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Troy's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Troy vs Nevada	-7.5	44.5	L 26 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/7	Troy at Memphis	+18.5	57.5	L 17 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/14	Troy at Iowa	+23.5	39.5	L 21 - 38	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Troy vs Florida A&M	-21.5	48.5	W 34 - 12	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Troy vs UL Monroe	-6.0	46.0	L 9 - 13	U	N
Thu 10/3	Troy vs Texas State	+14.5	56.0	L 17 - 38	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/15	Troy at South Alabama	+10.0	53.0	L 9 - 25	U	N
Sat 10/26	Troy at Arkansas State	+8.5	50.0	L 31 - 34	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Troy vs Coastal Carolina	+4.0	52.0	W 38 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Troy at Georgia Southern	+7.0	54.0	W 28 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Troy at Louisiana	+7.5	51.5	L 30 - 51	O	N
Sat 11/30	Troy vs Southern Miss	-17.5	48.5	W 52 - 20	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Troy's Schedule

Arkansas State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas	-18.5
Sat 9/7	Arkansas State vs Tulsa	-9.5	65.5	W 28 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/14	Arkansas State at Michigan	+22.0	47.5	L 18 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Arkansas State at Iowa State	+20.5	52.0	L 7 - 52	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Arkansas State vs South Alabama	+2.5	62.5	W 18 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Arkansas State at Texas State	+13.5	66.0	L 9 - 41	U	N
Sat 10/19	Arkansas State at Southern Miss	-7.0	57.0	W 44 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Arkansas State vs Troy	-8.5	50.0	W 34 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Arkansas State at Louisiana	+14.0	60.0	L 19 - 55	O	N
Sat 11/16	Arkansas State at Georgia State	+2.5	60.0	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Arkansas State vs UL Monroe	-3.0	51.5	W 28 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Arkansas State vs Old Dominion	+5.5	58.5	L 32 - 40	O	N
Thu 12/26	Arkansas State vs Bowling Green	+10.5	54.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TROY	#56 (.21)	41% (78)	23.5	42% (79)	3.12 (66)	154	41% (79)	265	3.78 (78)	#4 (.03)	38% (27)	23.9	37% (22)	40% (43)	2.96 (10)	46.4	1.3	1.6
ARST	#81 (.17)	42% (73)	25.2	43% (71)	3.12 (65)	148	41% (80)	225	3.21 (114)	#110 (.25)	42% (72)	27.4	44% (80)	41% (59)	4.05 (92)	60.9	1	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TROY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TROY Offense	14	23.5	23.4	41.4%	3.78	1.3	21	419	154	265	4.4	48%	51%	42%	41%	15%	.21
ARST Defense	13	27.4	27.2	42.3%	4.05	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	44%	41%	15%	.25

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TROY Defense	14	23.9	25.9	38.1%	2.96	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	37%	40%	18%	.03
ARST Offense	13	25.2	29	41.6%	3.21	1	20	374	148	225	4.2	50%	49%	43%	41%	16%	.17

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Troy	14	30:59	21.1	41%	45%	5.1	46.4	1.3	1.6	6.9	3.1	1	30.9
Arkansas State	13	26:17	19.8	36%	35%	6.2	60.9	1	1.2	6.2	1.8	4	30.4

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TROY Offense	14	48% (85)	42% (79)	34.6	153.9	4.4	19 (69)	.15 (75)	3.12 (66)	72% (88)	10% (62)	1.03 (50)
ARST Defense	13	50% (65)	44% (80)	-	-	-	-	.17 (88)	3.09 (66)	85% (124)	10% (71)	1.01 (78)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TROY Defense	14	47% (29)	37% (22)	-	-	-	-	-.03 (10)	2.75 (18)	60% (9)	13% (9)	0.97 (48)
ARST Offense	13	50% (72)	43% (71)	35.3	148.2	4.2	20 (61)	.16 (66)	3.12 (65)	69% (104)	9% (58)	1.05 (43)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TROY Offense	14	51% (45)	41% (79)	19.9	32.6	265.1	8.1	13.3	29 (18)	6 (14)	.29 (66)	1.7 (41)	33% (85)	29% (80)	.3 (78)	6% (60)	2.2 (31)
ARST Defense	13	49% (73)	41% (59)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.34 (105)	1.6 (59)	31% (83)	24% (11)	.3 (66)	5% (111)	2.2 (116)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TROY Defense	14	52% (105)	40% (43)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.12 (11)	1.4 (12)	34% (36)	28% (41)	.2 (16)	5% (105)	1.9 (28)
ARST Offense	13	49% (65)	41% (80)	16	28.5	225.5	7.9	14.1	17 (85)	9 (40)	.24 (83)	1.7 (40)	31% (59)	31% (68)	.28 (88)	6% (87)	2.1 (53)

Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: -14.63 #112
Troy's Offense Rating: 20.68 #58
Troy's Defense Rating: 15.27 #111
2024 Talent Rating: 208.00 #113
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
Troy's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Troy's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.6 #96
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #93
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #90

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 235.21
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Troy: -14.63 Arkansas State: -6.33

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Troy: -6.6 Arkansas State: -9.9

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -6.33 #91
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 20.48 #62
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 17.18 #124
2024 Talent Rating: 322.00 #67
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #97
Arkansas State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Arkansas State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9 #104
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #87
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.2 #119

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 235.21
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Troy Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.4
Defense: 23.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.9

Troy's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Arkansas State 28
Troy 23

Projected Total Points: 51

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

Arkansas State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/01	Troy	10	Arkansas State	23	Troy -7.5	Arkansas State	52.5	Under
2024	10/26	Arkansas State	34	Troy	31	Arkansas State -8.5	Troy	50.0	Over
2023	10/07	Troy	37	Arkansas State	3	Troy -15.5	Troy	52.0	Under
2022	11/26	Arkansas State	19	Troy	48	Troy -13.5	Troy	43.5	Over
2020	10/31	Arkansas State	10	Troy	38	Arkansas State -3.5	Troy	0
2019	09/28	Troy	43	Arkansas State	50	Troy -7	Arkansas State	59.5	Over
2017	12/02	Arkansas State	25	Troy	32	Arkansas State -1	Troy	60.0	Under
2016	11/17	Troy	3	Arkansas State	35	Troy -8.5	Arkansas State	53.5	Under
2013	09/12	Arkansas State	41	Troy	34	Arkansas State -10	Troy	0
2012	11/17	Troy	34	Arkansas State	41
2011	12/03	Arkansas State	45	Troy	14
2010	09/25	Troy	35	Arkansas State	28
2009	09/26	Arkansas State	27	Troy	30
2008	12/06	Troy	35	Arkansas State	9
2007	10/27	Arkansas State	0	Troy	27
2006	11/18	Troy	26	Arkansas State	33
2005	11/12	Arkansas State	9	Troy	3
2004	10/16	Arkansas State	13	Troy	9

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arkansas State	10	3	3 Overs
Troy	8	6	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 10	1 - 8	1 - 7	0 - 1
Road Teams	10 - 8	8 - 1	1 - 0	7 - 1

(#112) TROY at (#91) ARST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TROY	ARST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#112	#91
SP+SP+	#96	#104
Perf GradeGrade	#89	#102
OffenseOff	#52	#82
DefenseDef	#107	#121
Spec TeamsST	#125	#76
TalentTal	#113	#67
Blue ChipsBC%	#65	#97

Troy Notes(11/18) 2 str W's, upset GaSo. QB Caldwell great TW
(11/3) Blasted C. Car, Rgame 344 yds, 6.4 ypc in upset
(10/27) Still fighting, close L (Ark St), Off 450+, Def bad
(10/22) QB Crowder out for season, 2 QB split for now
(10/16) Run game is awful, Run defense is almost as bad
(10/4) Runs 56% but horrible success. QB decent, D bad
(9/8) Serious Rgame issues, bad 0-2 start. Lotta flags
(9/8) QB Crower JAG, D all. 214 Ryds @ home (Nev L)
(7/30) New HC Parker (ND OC), OC Reagan (WVU QB)
(7/30) Major roster TO. 25 transfers out, only 11 in
(7/30) Bottom 5 ret prod. Lost QB, RB, top 3 WR
(7/30) OL has some pieces, Def massive losses
Troy Injury Report

Arkansas State Notes(11/18) Close W @ GaSt, QB Rynor sucks, Rgame great
(10/27) Worst Def in CFB? Near L to Troy? Raynor great
(10/26) Off improving, will be a threat to win out
(10/12) Killed by Tex St, gave up 600 yds, 2 TO's
(10/12) QB Raynor torched S Al, Def enough 4 upset W
(9/1) Lines beaten badly vs C Ark, RG 140 (3.3) vs 235 (7.3)
(7/30) Vet. staff saved themselves LY to bowl game
(7/30) Def was poor LY, took a lot of P4 portals
(7/30) Off was meh LY but returns nearly everyone
(7/30) QB Raynor was SBC ROY in 23. JAG+ with legs
(7/30) OL has 4/5 back, RBs good, WR good
(7/30) Butch's best team could sneak into SB CG
Arkansas State Injury Report

Troy on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	TROY Off	ARST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#52	#121
SuccessSuc	#78	#72
ExplosiveExp	#33	#62
PPAPPA	#56	#110
PowerPwr	#58	#124
SP+SP+	#93	#119
Pts POPPO	#78	#92
HavocHav	#63	#103

Troy Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	TROY Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	#51	#124
Run SuccessRSuc	#79	#80
Run ExplRExp	#50	#78
PPAExp	#75	#88
Run BlockR Blk	#66	-
OL YdsOLY	#66	#66
Stuff RateStuff	#89	#71
TackleTak	-	#128

Troy Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	TROY Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	#88	#120
Pass SuccessPSuc	#79	#59
Pass ExplPExl	#41	#59
PPAExp	#66	#105
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#92	#78
F7 HavocF7	#62	#71
DB HavocDB	#60	#111

Arkansas State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	ARST Off	TROY Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#82	#107
SuccessSuc	#73	#27
ExplosiveExp	#35	#28
PPAPPA	#81	#4
PowerPwr	#62	#111
SP+SP+	#87	#90
Pts POPPO	#114	#10
HavocHav	#69	#25

Arkansas State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	ARST Off	TROY Def
Run GameRun	#101	#77
Run SuccessRSuc	#71	#22
Run ExplRExp	#43	#48
PPAExp	#66	#10
Run BlockR Blk	#27	-
OL YdsOLY	#65	#18
Stuff RateStuff	#70	#15
TackleTak	-	#95

Arkansas State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	ARST Off	TROY Def
Pass GamePass	#45	#106
Pass SuccessPSuc	#80	#43
Pass ExplPExl	#40	#12
PPAExp	#83	#11
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#113	#133
F7 HavocF7	#58	#9
DB HavocDB	#87	#105

Program Comparison
ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

TROY 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'24 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Centennial Bank Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 9
Arkansas State -8.5 (50.0)
Arkansas State won vs Troy this year (34-31)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat Troy last year (23-10)
Arkansas State beat Troy in 2024 (34-31)
Troy beat Arkansas State in 2023 (37-3)

TROY's OC Sean Reagan (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Matthew Caldwell	141	224	63%	1608	13	8	7.2
Will Crowder	44	63	70%	547	5	0	8.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Damien Taylor	173	1010	7	5.8	56
Gerald Green (Tr)	111	545	3	4.9	51
Tucker Kilcrease	39	118	0	3.0	25
Will Crowder	17	63	1	3.7	12

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Devonte Ross	76	1044	11	13.7	98
Landon Parker	27	350	0	13.0	33
Peyton Higgins	31	301	1	9.7	37
Zeriah Beason	16	208	0	13.0	35

View Troy's Full Roster

TROY's DC Nathan Burton (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brendan Jackson (Tr)	77	16	2	2	3
Jordan Stringer	77	8	2	1	0
Justin Powe	67	2	1	0	4
Ian Conerly-Goodly (Tr)	54	2	0	1	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Phillip Lee	30	11	5	7	1
Julian Peterson	25	5	3	1	0
Brendan Jackson (Tr)	77	16	2	2	3
Jordan Stringer	77	8	2	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Damaje Yancey	49	4	2	0	8
LJ Green	27	2	0	1	6
Justin Powe	67	2	1	0	4

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaylen Raynor	259	420	62%	2783	16	10	6.6
Timmy McClain (Tr)	14	21	67%	163	3	0	7.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Zak Wallace	154	721	11	4.7	57
Ja'Quez Cross	115	638	2	5.5	49
Jaylen Raynor	137	387	3	2.8	40
Devin Spencer	40	206	0	5.2	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Corey Rucker	69	1053	7	15.3	79
Courtney Jackson	42	494	2	11.8	44
Reagan Ealy	23	262	0	11.4	22
Adam Jones	21	255	3	12.1	46

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Rob Harley (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marvin Ham II (Tr)	98	10	2	1	1
Justin Parks	96	6	0	3	3
Charles Willekes	92	9	1	2	3
Trevian Thomas	79	1	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Jayden Jones	25	7	4	4
Bryan Whitehead II	24	11	4	15
Ian Jeffries	21	5	4	5
Noah Collins (Tr)	26	5	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Dontay Joyner	50	1	1	7
Websley Etienne	56	2	0	5
Jordan Mahoney (Tr)	19	1	0	4