Arkansas State at Troy - 2023 Matchup Preview
Arkansas State logo Arkansas State Red Wolves at Troy TrojansTroy logo
Saturday, October 7th 2023 (4:00 PM EDT)
Troy -15.5 (52.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
Troy 37 - Arkansas State: 3  (Sun Belt)

 
Red Wolves (6 - 7) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Butch Jones (6 - 21)
Avg Score : 27 - 30 (21 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.7 - 7.3 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
ARST 2nd straight Road Game
TROY is playing their 6th straight game
ARST is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Troy -17.5   (SP+ TROY -18)

Projected Score: ARST: 18 - TROY: 35 (53)
TROY Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
ARST Travel: 389 miles
Trojans (11 - 3) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jon Sumrall (13 - 4)
Avg Score : 30 - 17 (33 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 4 (#13)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Arkansas State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Arkansas State at Oklahoma+36.057.5L 0 - 73ON
Sat 9/9 Arkansas State vs Memphis+21.057.0L 3 - 37UN
Sat 9/16 Arkansas State vs Stony Brook-24.047.5W 31 - 7UN
Sat 9/23 Arkansas State vs Southern Miss+7.046.5W 44 - 37OY
Sat 9/30 Arkansas State at Massachusetts+2.555.5W 52 - 28OY
Sat 10/7 Arkansas State at Troy+15.552.0L 3 - 37UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21 Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina+8.559.0L 17 - 27UN
Sat 10/28 Arkansas State at UL Monroe+1.055.5W 34 - 24OY
Sat 11/4 Arkansas State vs Louisiana+9.060.0W 37 - 17UY
Sat 11/11 Arkansas State at South Alabama+14.554.5L 14 - 21UY
Sat 11/18 Arkansas State vs Texas State+3.559.5W 77 - 31OY
Sat 11/25 Arkansas State at Marshall+2.054.0L 21 - 35ON
Sat 12/23 Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois-2.554.0L 19 - 21UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule
Troy's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Troy vs Stephen F. Austin-26.048.0W 48 - 30ON
Sat 9/9 Troy at Kansas State+15.050.0L 13 - 42ON
Sat 9/16 Troy vs James Madison-2.546.5L 14 - 16UN
Sat 9/23 Troy vs Western Kentucky-3.557.0W 27 - 24UN
Sat 9/30 Troy at Georgia State+1.050.5W 28 - 7UY
Sat 10/7 Troy vs Arkansas State-15.552.0W 37 - 3UY
Sat 10/14 Troy at Army-6.541.5W 19 - 0UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Troy at Texas State-6.553.0W 31 - 13UY
Thu 11/2 Troy vs South Alabama-5.544.5W 28 - 10UY
Sat 11/11 Troy at UL Monroe-23.547.5W 45 - 14OY
Sat 11/18 Troy vs Louisiana-17.547.5W 31 - 24ON
Sat 11/25 Troy at Southern Miss-16.548.5W 35 - 17OY
Sat 12/2 Troy vs App State-6.551.5W 49 - 23OY
Sat 12/23 Troy vs Duke-7.044.0L 10 - 17UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Troy's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARST#81 (.17)42% (73)27.143% (71)3.12 (65)14841% (80)2253.21 (114)#110 (.25)42% (72)30.444% (80)41% (59)4.05 (92)60.911.2
TROY#56 (.21)41% (78)29.642% (79)3.12 (66)15441% (79)2653.78 (78)#4 (.03)38% (27)17.137% (22)40% (43)2.96 (10)46.41.31.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARST#81 (.17)41% (91)43% (84)3.01 (77)14839% (96)2103.96 (63)#126 (.31)48% (124)51% (131)44% (110)4.62 (127)47.81.31.4
TROY#50 (.22)44% (49)42% (94)2.88 (95)15748% (15)2134.43 (22)#77 (.18)43% (87)45% (87)42% (76)3.77 (65)58.81.30.7



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARST Offense1327.120.741.6%3.211203741482254.250%49%43%41%16%.17
TROY Defense1417.118.638.1%2.961.6 - - - - - 47%52%37%40%18%.03
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARST Defense1330.436.342.3%4.051.2 - - - - - 50%49%44%41%15%.25
TROY Offense1429.633.441.4%3.781.3214191542654.448%51%42%41%15%.21

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Arkansas State1326:1719.836%35%6.260.911.26.21.8430.4
Troy1430:5921.141%45%5.146.41.31.66.93.1130.9
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARST Offense1350% (72)43% (71)35.3148.24.220 (61).16 (66)3.12 (65)69% (104)9% (58)1.05 (43)
TROY Defense1447% (29)37% (22) - - - - -.03 (10)2.75 (18)60% (9)13% (9)0.97 (48)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARST Defense1350% (65)44% (80) - - - - .17 (88)3.09 (66)85% (124)10% (71)1.01 (78)
TROY Offense1448% (85)42% (79)34.6153.94.419 (69).15 (75)3.12 (66)72% (88)10% (62)1.03 (50)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARST Offense1349% (65)41% (80)1628.5225.57.914.117 (85)9 (40).24 (83)1.7 (40)31% (59)31% (68).28 (88)6% (87)2.1 (53)
TROY Defense1452% (105)40% (43) - - - - - - 10 (67).12 (11)1.4 (12)34% (36)28% (41).2 (16)5% (105)1.9 (28)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARST Defense1349% (73)41% (59) - - - - - - 8 (100).34 (105)1.6 (59)31% (83)24% (11).3 (66)5% (111)2.2 (116)
TROY Offense1451% (45)41% (79)19.932.6265.18.113.329 (18)6 (14).29 (66)1.7 (41)33% (85)29% (80).3 (78)6% (60)2.2 (31)

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -7.23 #100
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 14.66 #85
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 11.64 #95
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Arkansas State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30
Arkansas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #72
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #108

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -7.23   Troy: 10.24

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -7.5   Troy: 10.4




Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: 10.24 #35
Troy's Offense Rating: 16.62 #64
Troy's Defense Rating: 1.67 #14
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Troy's 2023 Expected Record: 10.00 - 4.00
Troy's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.4 #26
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #34
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 27.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.7
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 36.3

Arkansas State's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Troy 35
Arkansas State 18


Total Points: 53

Troy Scoring
Offense: 29.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.4
Defense: 17.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.6

Troy's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/26Arkansas State34Troy31Arkansas StateArkansas State -8.5Troy50.0Over
202310/07Troy37Arkansas State3TroyTroy -15.5Troy52.0Under
202211/26Arkansas State19Troy48TroyTroy -13.5Troy43.5Over
202010/31Arkansas State10Troy38TroyArkansas State -3.5Troy0
201909/28Troy43Arkansas State50Arkansas StateTroy -7Arkansas State59.5Over
201712/02Arkansas State25Troy32TroyArkansas State -1Troy60.0Under
201611/17Troy3Arkansas State35Arkansas StateTroy -8.5Arkansas State53.5Under
201309/12Arkansas State41Troy34Arkansas StateArkansas State -10Troy0
201211/17Troy34Arkansas State41Arkansas State
201112/03Arkansas State45Troy14Arkansas State
201009/25Troy35Arkansas State28Troy
200909/26Arkansas State27Troy30Troy
200812/06Troy35Arkansas State9Troy
200710/27Arkansas State0Troy27Troy
200611/18Troy26Arkansas State33Arkansas State
200511/12Arkansas State9Troy3Arkansas State
200410/16Arkansas State13Troy9Arkansas State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Troy863 Overs
Arkansas State923 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 91 - 71 - 60 - 1
Road Teams9 - 87 - 11 - 06 - 1

(#100) Arkansas State Info
Power Rating: -7.23 #100
Offense Rating: 14.66 #85
Defense Rating: 11.64 #95
Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #72
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #108
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30


Arkansas State has won 3 straight
Arkansas State has won 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 2 - 4 (3 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )

Arkansas State Highlights
Arkansas State has a great TO Margin (#82)

Arkansas State Deficiencies
Arkansas State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#88)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatTROYARST
OverallOver#11#47
OffenseOff#22#50
DefenseDef#7#51
Special TeamsST#58#91
PassingPass#12#78
RushingRush#8#50
Run BlockRBLK#88#22
Pass BlockPBLK#72#80
Route RunningWR Rt#9#44
TacklingTkl#24#29
Run DefenseR Def#3#64
Pass Rush DefPRush#14#87
Coverage DefCov#18#14

Rematch from Week 6
Troy -15.5 (52.0)
Troy won vs Arkansas State this year (37-3)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat Troy last year (34-31)
Troy beat Arkansas State in 2023 (37-3)
Troy beat Arkansas State in 2022 (48-19)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Veterans Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: ARST | TROY
Depth Chart: ARST | TROY
Rosters: ARST | TROY
(#35) Troy Info
Power Rating: 10.24 #35
Offense Rating: 16.62 #64
Defense Rating: 1.67 #14
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.4 #26
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #34
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 10.00 - 4.00


Troy has won 2 straight
Troy has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 6 - 1 (3 - 4 - 0 vs Spread)

Troy Highlights
Troy Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Troy has a really good defense (#82)
Troy defense does not give up big plays (#50)
Troy defense is really good in red zone (#123)
Troy has a good run defense (#94)
Troy Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#110)
Troy Defensive Line is very good (#125)
Troy Front 7 is disruptive (#48)

Troy Deficiencies
Troy Fumbles a Lot (#1)


  
Arkansas State's OC Keith Heckendorf
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaylen Raynor16628558%25431778.9
JT Shrout245147%227024.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ja'Quez Cross12871675.666
Zak Wallace12657564.641
Jaylen Raynor12338053.162
Cedric Hawkins3115625.028
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Corey Rucker (Tr)36705219.668
Courtney Jackson (Tr)39689717.760
Jeff Foreman28540419.346
Reagan Ealy19198110.433

View Arkansas State's Full Roster
Arkansas State's DC Rob Harley
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trevian Thomas913004
Charles Willekes919211
Melique Straker857000
Javante Mackey847221
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyron Crawford4411671
Nate Martey369640
Javante Mackey847221
Thurman Geathers48132120
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Samy Johnson5730015
Leon Jones260006
Justin Hodges252005

Troy's OC Joe Craddock
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Gunnar Watson26743861%35572768.1
Will Crowder (Tr)91369%94107.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kimani Vidal2961662145.669
Damien Taylor6734615.245
Asa Martin (Tr)2511404.616
Jarris Williams146914.925
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jabre Barber74994513.452
Chris Lewis (Tr)327341022.964
Deshon Stoudemire43563113.151
Devonte Ross40428310.738

View Troy's Full Roster
Troy's DC Greg Gasparato
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden McDonald7510221
Dell Pettus734104
Jordan Stringer685130
Irshaad Davis662004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Javon Solomon54171650
Richard Jibunor59191140
T.J. Jackson278422
Malaki Pegues93210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Reddy Steward5041010
Don Callis261104
Irshaad Davis662004