Arkansas State at Troy Game Matchup

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Troy Trojans

Saturday, October 7th 2023 (4:00 PM EDT)
Troy -15.5 (52.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Troy 37 - Arkansas State: 3 (Sun Belt)

Red Wolves (6 - 7) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Butch Jones (6 - 21)
Avg Score : 26 - 32 (21 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.7 - 7.3 (#83)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 13.7 MPH
ARST 2nd straight Road Game
TROY is playing their 6th straight game
ARST is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Troy -17.5 (SP+ TROY -18)
Projected Score: ARST: 18 - TROY: 36 (56)
TROY Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
ARST Travel: 389 miles

Trojans (11 - 3) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jon Sumrall (13 - 4)
Avg Score : 26 - 28 (29 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 4 (#13)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ARST Players
TROY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Arkansas State at Oklahoma	+36.0	57.5	L 0 - 73	O	N
Sat 9/9	Arkansas State vs Memphis	+21.0	57.0	L 3 - 37	U	N
Sat 9/16	Arkansas State vs Stony Brook	-24.0	47.5	W 31 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/23	Arkansas State vs Southern Miss	+7.0	46.5	W 44 - 37	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Arkansas State at Massachusetts	+2.5	55.5	W 52 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Arkansas State at Troy	+15.5	52.0	L 3 - 37	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina	+8.5	59.0	L 17 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/28	Arkansas State at UL Monroe	+1.0	55.5	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Arkansas State vs Louisiana	+9.0	60.0	W 37 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Arkansas State at South Alabama	+14.5	54.5	L 14 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Arkansas State vs Texas State	+3.5	59.5	W 77 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Arkansas State at Marshall	+2.0	54.0	L 21 - 35	O	N
Sat 12/23	Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois	-2.5	54.0	L 19 - 21	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule

Troy's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Troy vs Stephen F. Austin	-26.0	48.0	W 48 - 30	O	N
Sat 9/9	Troy at Kansas State	+15.0	50.0	L 13 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/16	Troy vs James Madison	-2.5	46.5	L 14 - 16	U	N
Sat 9/23	Troy vs Western Kentucky	-3.5	57.0	W 27 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/30	Troy at Georgia State	+1.0	50.5	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Troy vs Arkansas State	-15.5	52.0	W 37 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Troy at Army	-6.5	41.5	W 19 - 0	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Troy at Texas State	-6.5	53.0	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Thu 11/2	Troy vs South Alabama	-5.5	44.5	W 28 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Troy at UL Monroe	-23.5	47.5	W 45 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Troy vs Louisiana	-17.5	47.5	W 31 - 24	O	N
Sat 11/25	Troy at Southern Miss	-16.5	48.5	W 35 - 17	O	Y
Sat 12/2	Troy vs App State	-6.5	51.5	W 49 - 23	O	Y
Sat 12/23	Troy vs Duke	-7.0	44.0	L 10 - 17	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	.1	36%	25.8	35%	2.36	88	38%	227	3.48	.24	44%	32.2	45%	43%	4.58	54.5	0.8	1.1
TROY	.15	40%	26	40%	2.93	116	41%	243	3.45	.08	40%	28.4	42%	38%	3.04	49.9	1.5	2.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TROY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Offense	12	25.8	20.7	36.1%	3.48	0.8	17	315	88	227	2.8	42%	57%	35%	38%	21%	.1
TROY Defense	14	28.4	22.5	39.7%	3.04	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	42%	38%	16%	.08

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Defense	12	32.2	37.3	44.2%	4.58	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	45%	43%	18%	.24
TROY Offense	14	26	29.3	39.7%	3.45	1.5	20	359	116	243	3.3	49%	49%	40%	41%	16%	.15

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas State	12	30:14	17.2	29%	61%	5.7	54.5	0.8	1.1	6.4	1.9	2	29
Troy	14	30:25	19.5	32%	67%	5.4	49.9	1.5	2.1	5.6	2.9	1	29.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Offense	12	42%	35%	31.8	88.2	2.8	16	-.03	2.36	75%	16%	1
TROY Defense	14	47%	42%	-	-	-	-	.08	3.09	72%	10%	0.89

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Defense	12	55%	45%	-	-	-	-	.16	3	76%	12%	0.97
TROY Offense	14	49%	40%	35.5	116.1	3.3	21	.07	2.93	73%	11%	0.93

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Offense	12	57%	38%	20.6	33	226.8	6.9	11	16	5	.21	1.6	38%	25%	.19	6%	2.1
TROY Defense	14	53%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.1	1.4	32%	26%	.16	6%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Defense	12	44%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.4	1.8	31%	31%	.31	6%	2.1
TROY Offense	14	49%	41%	17.9	28.6	242.6	8.5	13.5	20	15	.29	1.7	31%	29%	.2	5%	1.9

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -7.23 #100
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 14.66 #85
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 11.64 #95
2023 Talent Rating: 560.00 #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Arkansas State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30
Arkansas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #72
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #108

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 393.43
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -7.23 Troy: 10.24

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -7.5 Troy: 10.4

Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: 10.24 #35
Troy's Offense Rating: 16.62 #64
Troy's Defense Rating: 1.67 #14
2023 Talent Rating: 344.00 #123
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Troy's 2023 Expected Record: 10.00 - 4.00
Troy's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.4 #26
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #34
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 393.43
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.7
Defense: 32.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.3

Arkansas State's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Troy 36
Arkansas State 18

Projected Total Points: 56

Troy Scoring
Offense: 26 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.3
Defense: 28.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.5

Troy's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/26	Arkansas State	34	Troy	31	Arkansas State	Arkansas State -8.5	Troy	50.0	Over
2023	10/07	Troy	37	Arkansas State	3	Troy	Troy -15.5	Troy	52.0	Under
2022	11/26	Arkansas State	19	Troy	48	Troy	Troy -13.5	Troy	43.5	Over
2020	10/31	Arkansas State	10	Troy	38	Troy	Arkansas State -3.5	Troy	0
2019	09/28	Troy	43	Arkansas State	50	Arkansas State	Troy -7	Arkansas State	59.5	Over
2017	12/02	Arkansas State	25	Troy	32	Troy	Arkansas State -1	Troy	60.0	Under
2016	11/17	Troy	3	Arkansas State	35	Arkansas State	Troy -8.5	Arkansas State	53.5	Under
2013	09/12	Arkansas State	41	Troy	34	Arkansas State	Arkansas State -10	Troy	0
2012	11/17	Troy	34	Arkansas State	41	Arkansas State
2011	12/03	Arkansas State	45	Troy	14	Arkansas State
2010	09/25	Troy	35	Arkansas State	28	Troy
2009	09/26	Arkansas State	27	Troy	30	Troy
2008	12/06	Troy	35	Arkansas State	9	Troy
2007	10/27	Arkansas State	0	Troy	27	Troy
2006	11/18	Troy	26	Arkansas State	33	Arkansas State
2005	11/12	Arkansas State	9	Troy	3	Arkansas State
2004	10/16	Arkansas State	13	Troy	9	Arkansas State

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Troy	8	6	3 Overs
Arkansas State	9	2	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 9	1 - 7	1 - 6	0 - 1
Road Teams	9 - 8	7 - 1	1 - 0	6 - 1

(#100) Arkansas State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -7.23 #100
Offense Rating: 14.66 #85
Defense Rating: 11.64 #95
Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #72
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #108
Talent Rating: 560.00 #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30

Team Profile

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Arkansas State Ratings Matchup Troy

Power #100

#35

Off #85

#64

Def #95

#14

Talent #81

#123

SP+ #92

#26

SP+ Off #72

#34

SP+ Def #108

#26

Rematch from Week 6
Troy -15.5 (52.0)
Troy won vs Arkansas State this year (37-3)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat Troy last year (34-31)
Troy beat Arkansas State in 2023 (37-3)
Troy beat Arkansas State in 2022 (48-19)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Veterans Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 78° - Wind: 14 mph

Team Information
Injuries: ARST | TROY
Depth Chart: ARST | TROY
Rosters: ARST | TROY

(#35) Troy Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 10.24 #35
Offense Rating: 16.62 #64
Defense Rating: 1.67 #14
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.4 #26
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #34
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26
Talent Rating: 344.00 #123
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 10.00 - 4.00

Team Profile

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Arkansas State's OC Keith Heckendorf

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Reagan Ealy	1	1	100%	11	0	0	11.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Zak Wallace	154	721	11	4.7	57
Mike Sharpe II	4	22	0	5.5	9

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Courtney Jackson (Tr)	42	494	2	11.8	44
Reagan Ealy	23	262	0	11.4	22
Adam Jones	21	255	3	12.1	46
Emmanuel Stevenson	28	203	1	7.3	29

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

Arkansas State's DC Rob Harley

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Justin Parks	96	6	0	3	3
Charles Willekes	92	9	1	2	3
Trevian Thomas	79	1	0	0	4
Gavin Potter (Tr)	75	11	1	4	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Charles Willekes	92	9	1	2	3
Gavin Potter (Tr)	75	11	1	4	0
Blayne Toll	9	1	1	2	0
Justin Parks	96	6	0	3	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trevian Thomas	79	1	0	0	4
Justin Parks	96	6	0	3	3
Charles Willekes	92	9	1	2	3

Troy's OC Joe Craddock

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
JD Sherrod	2	7	29%	18	0	0	2.6
Landon Parker (Tr)	1	3	33%	29	0	0	9.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
JD Sherrod	13	67	0	5.2	30
Jabre Barber	8	26	0	3.3	8

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jabre Barber	38	381	2	10.0	58
Landon Parker (Tr)	27	350	0	13.0	33

View Troy's Full Roster

Troy's DC Greg Gasparato

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jayden McDonald	125	10	4	8	3
Keyshawn Swanson	63	2	0	0	2
Damaje Yancey	49	4	2	0	8
Jack Tchienchou	47	1	0	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
T.J. Jackson	40	14	7	1	0
Jayden McDonald	125	10	4	8	3
Damaje Yancey	49	4	2	0	8
Caleb Ransaw	31	3	1	0	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Damaje Yancey	49	4	2	0	8
Jayden McDonald	125	10	4	8	3
Keyshawn Swanson	63	2	0	0	2