Arkansas State at Troy - 2023 Matchup Preview

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Troy Trojans

Saturday, October 7th 2023 (4:00 PM EDT)
Troy -15.5 (52.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Troy 37 - Arkansas State: 3 (Sun Belt)

Red Wolves (6 - 7) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Butch Jones (6 - 21)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (21 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.7 - 7.3 (#83)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ARST 2nd straight Road Game
TROY is playing their 6th straight game
ARST is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Troy -17.5 (SP+ TROY -18)
Projected Score: ARST: 16 - TROY: 34 (50)
TROY Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
ARST Travel: 389 miles

Trojans (11 - 3) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jon Sumrall (13 - 4)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (25 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 4 (#13)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ARST Players
TROY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Arkansas State at Oklahoma	+36.0	57.5	L 0 - 73	O	N
Sat 9/9	Arkansas State vs Memphis	+21.0	57.0	L 3 - 37	U	N
Sat 9/16	Arkansas State vs Stony Brook	-24.0	47.5	W 31 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/23	Arkansas State vs Southern Miss	+7.0	46.5	W 44 - 37	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Arkansas State at Massachusetts	+2.5	55.5	W 52 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Arkansas State at Troy	+15.5	52.0	L 3 - 37	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina	+8.5	59.0	L 17 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/28	Arkansas State at UL Monroe	+1.0	55.5	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Arkansas State vs Louisiana	+9.0	60.0	W 37 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Arkansas State at South Alabama	+14.5	54.5	L 14 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Arkansas State vs Texas State	+3.5	59.5	W 77 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Arkansas State at Marshall	+2.0	54.0	L 21 - 35	O	N
Sat 12/23	Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois	-2.5	54.0	L 19 - 21	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule

Troy's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Troy vs Stephen F. Austin	-26.0	48.0	W 48 - 30	O	N
Sat 9/9	Troy at Kansas State	+15.0	50.0	L 13 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/16	Troy vs James Madison	-2.5	46.5	L 14 - 16	U	N
Sat 9/23	Troy vs Western Kentucky	-3.5	57.0	W 27 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/30	Troy at Georgia State	+1.0	50.5	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Troy vs Arkansas State	-15.5	52.0	W 37 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Troy at Army	-6.5	41.5	W 19 - 0	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Troy at Texas State	-6.5	53.0	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Thu 11/2	Troy vs South Alabama	-5.5	44.5	W 28 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Troy at UL Monroe	-23.5	47.5	W 45 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Troy vs Louisiana	-17.5	47.5	W 31 - 24	O	N
Sat 11/25	Troy at Southern Miss	-16.5	48.5	W 35 - 17	O	Y
Sat 12/2	Troy vs App State	-6.5	51.5	W 49 - 23	O	Y
Sat 12/23	Troy vs Duke	-7.0	44.0	L 10 - 17	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	.1	36%	25.2	35%	2.36	88	38%	227	3.48	.24	44%	27.4	45%	43%	4.58	54.5	0.8	1.1
TROY	.15	40%	23.5	40%	2.93	116	41%	243	3.45	.08	40%	23.9	42%	38%	3.04	49.9	1.5	2.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TROY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Offense	12	25.2	21	36.1%	3.48	0.8	17	315	88	227	2.8	42%	57%	35%	38%	21%	.1
TROY Defense	14	23.9	22.8	39.7%	3.04	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	42%	38%	16%	.08

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Defense	12	27.4	21.8	44.2%	4.58	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	45%	43%	18%	.24
TROY Offense	14	23.5	25.3	39.7%	3.45	1.5	20	359	116	243	3.3	49%	49%	40%	41%	16%	.15

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas State	12	30:14	17.2	29%	61%	5.7	54.5	0.8	1.1	6.4	1.9	2	29
Troy	14	30:25	19.5	32%	67%	5.4	49.9	1.5	2.1	5.6	2.9	1	29.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Offense	12	42%	35%	31.8	88.2	2.8	16	-.03	2.36	75%	16%	1
TROY Defense	14	47%	42%	-	-	-	-	.08	3.09	72%	10%	0.89

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Defense	12	55%	45%	-	-	-	-	.16	3	76%	12%	0.97
TROY Offense	14	49%	40%	35.5	116.1	3.3	21	.07	2.93	73%	11%	0.93

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Offense	12	57%	38%	20.6	33	226.8	6.9	11	16	5	.21	1.6	38%	25%	.19	6%	2.1
TROY Defense	14	53%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.1	1.4	32%	26%	.16	6%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Defense	12	44%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.4	1.8	31%	31%	.31	6%	2.1
TROY Offense	14	49%	41%	17.9	28.6	242.6	8.5	13.5	20	15	.29	1.7	31%	29%	.2	5%	1.9

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -7.23 #100
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 14.66 #85
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 11.64 #95
2023 Talent Rating: 487.40 #92
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Arkansas State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30
Arkansas State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #72
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #108

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 437.55
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -7.23 Troy: 10.24

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -7.5 Troy: 10.4

Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: 10.24 #35
Troy's Offense Rating: 16.62 #64
Troy's Defense Rating: 1.67 #14
2023 Talent Rating: 454.06 #101
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Troy's 2023 Expected Record: 10.00 - 4.00
Troy's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.4 #26
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #34
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 437.55
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.8

Arkansas State's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Troy 34
Arkansas State 16

Projected Total Points: 50

Troy Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.3
Defense: 23.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.8

Troy's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/01	Troy	10	Arkansas State	23	Troy -7.5	Arkansas State	52.5	Under
2024	10/26	Arkansas State	34	Troy	31	Arkansas State -8.5	Troy	50.0	Over
2023	10/07	Troy	37	Arkansas State	3	Troy -15.5	Troy	52.0	Under
2022	11/26	Arkansas State	19	Troy	48	Troy -13.5	Troy	43.5	Over
2020	10/31	Arkansas State	10	Troy	38	Arkansas State -3.5	Troy	0
2019	09/28	Troy	43	Arkansas State	50	Troy -7	Arkansas State	59.5	Over
2017	12/02	Arkansas State	25	Troy	32	Arkansas State -1	Troy	60.0	Under
2016	11/17	Troy	3	Arkansas State	35	Troy -8.5	Arkansas State	53.5	Under
2013	09/12	Arkansas State	41	Troy	34	Arkansas State -10	Troy	0
2012	11/17	Troy	34	Arkansas State	41
2011	12/03	Arkansas State	45	Troy	14
2010	09/25	Troy	35	Arkansas State	28
2009	09/26	Arkansas State	27	Troy	30
2008	12/06	Troy	35	Arkansas State	9
2007	10/27	Arkansas State	0	Troy	27
2006	11/18	Troy	26	Arkansas State	33
2005	11/12	Arkansas State	9	Troy	3
2004	10/16	Arkansas State	13	Troy	9

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Troy	8	6	3 Overs
Arkansas State	10	3	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 10	1 - 8	1 - 7	0 - 1
Road Teams	10 - 8	8 - 1	1 - 0	7 - 1

(#100) ARST at (#35) TROY

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARST	TROY
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#100	#35
SP+SP+	#92	#26
Perf GradeGrade	#58	#13
OffenseOff	#54	#25
DefenseDef	#60	#9
Spec TeamsST	#113	#72
TalentTal	#92	#101
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Arkansas State Injury Report

Troy Injury Report

Arkansas State on Offense


CategoryCat	ARST Off	TROY Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#54	#9
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#85	#14
SP+SP+	#72	#26
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Arkansas State Run Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	TROY Def
Run GameRun	#72	#4
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#26	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#26

Arkansas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	TROY Def
Pass GamePass	#93	#21
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#92	#15
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Troy on Offense


CategoryCat	TROY Off	ARST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#25	#60
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#64	#95
SP+SP+	#34	#108
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Troy Run Game


CategoryCat	TROY Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	#8	#74
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#117	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#31

Troy Pass Game


CategoryCat	TROY Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	#13	#16
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#84	#118
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
TROY 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Up to Average P4

ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Veterans Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 6
Troy -15.5 (52.0)
Troy won vs Arkansas State this year (37-3)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat Troy last year (23-10)
Arkansas State beat Troy in 2024 (34-31)
Troy beat Arkansas State in 2023 (37-3)

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaylen Raynor	166	285	58%	2543	17	7	8.9
JT Shrout	24	51	47%	227	0	2	4.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ja'Quez Cross	128	716	7	5.6	66
Zak Wallace	126	575	6	4.6	41
Jaylen Raynor	123	380	5	3.1	62
Cedric Hawkins	31	156	2	5.0	28

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Corey Rucker (Tr)	36	705	2	19.6	68
Courtney Jackson (Tr)	39	689	7	17.7	60
Jeff Foreman	28	540	4	19.3	46
Reagan Ealy	19	198	1	10.4	33

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Rob Harley (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trevian Thomas	91	3	0	0	4
Charles Willekes	91	9	2	1	1
Melique Straker	85	7	0	0	0
Javante Mackey	84	7	2	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keyron Crawford	44	11	6	7	1
Nate Martey	36	9	6	4	0
Javante Mackey	84	7	2	2	1
Thurman Geathers	48	13	2	12	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Samy Johnson	57	3	15
Leon Jones	26	0	6
Justin Hodges	25	2	5

TROY's OC Joe Craddock (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Gunnar Watson	267	438	61%	3557	27	6	8.1
Will Crowder (Tr)	9	13	69%	94	1	0	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kimani Vidal	296	1662	14	5.6	69
Damien Taylor	67	346	1	5.2	45
Asa Martin (Tr)	25	114	0	4.6	16
Jarris Williams	14	69	1	4.9	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jabre Barber	74	994	5	13.4	52
Chris Lewis (Tr)	32	734	10	22.9	64
Deshon Stoudemire	43	563	1	13.1	51
Devonte Ross	40	428	3	10.7	38

View Troy's Full Roster

TROY's DC Greg Gasparato (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jayden McDonald	75	10	2	2	1
Dell Pettus	73	4	1	0	4
Jordan Stringer	68	5	1	3	0
Irshaad Davis	66	2	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Javon Solomon	54	17	16	5	0
Richard Jibunor	59	19	11	4	0
T.J. Jackson	27	8	4	2	2
Malaki Pegues	9	3	2	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Reddy Steward	50	4	1	10
Don Callis	26	1	1	4
Irshaad Davis	66	2	0	4