Arkansas State at Georgia State - 2021 Matchup Preview

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Georgia State Panthers

Saturday, November 20th 2021 (2:00 PM EST)
Georgia State -15.5 (66.0)
Georgia State 28 - Arkansas State: 20 (Sun Belt)

Red Wolves (2 - 10) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (21 - 22 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ARST 2nd straight Road Game
GAST is playing their 5th straight game
ARST is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: -12.5 (SP+ GAST -20)
Projected Score: ARST: 29 - GAST: 23 (52)
GAST Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
ARST Travel: 385 miles, 1 hrs behind

Panthers (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Shawn Elliott (23 - 27)
Avg Score : 20 - 38 (22 - 30 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ARST Players
GAST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas	-13.5	64.0	W 40 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Arkansas State vs Memphis	+5.5	65.0	L 50 - 55	O	Y
Sat 9/18	Arkansas State at Washington	+17.5	58.5	L 3 - 52	U	N
Sat 9/25	Arkansas State at Tulsa	+14.5	65.0	L 34 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/2	Arkansas State at Georgia Southern	+1.5	66.5	L 33 - 59	O	N
Thu 10/7	Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina	+20.5	74.5	L 20 - 52	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/21	Arkansas State vs Louisiana	+17.0	70.0	L 27 - 28	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Arkansas State at South Alabama	+9.5	67.0	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/6	Arkansas State vs App State	+21.5	67.5	L 14 - 48	U	N
Sat 11/13	Arkansas State at UL Monroe	+3.0	66.5	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/20	Arkansas State at Georgia State	+15.5	66.0	L 20 - 28	U	Y
Sat 11/27	Arkansas State vs Texas State	-2.0	62.0	L 22 - 24	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule

Georgia State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Georgia State vs Army	-2.5	50.0	L 10 - 43	O	N
Sat 9/11	Georgia State at North Carolina	+26.0	65.0	L 17 - 59	O	N
Sat 9/18	Georgia State vs Charlotte	-4.5	62.5	W 20 - 9	U	Y
Sat 9/25	Georgia State at Auburn	+27.5	57.5	L 24 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/2	Georgia State vs App State	+10.5	54.5	L 16 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/9	Georgia State at UL Monroe	-16.0	49.5	W 55 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/23	Georgia State vs Texas State	-10.0	58.5	W 28 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Georgia State at Georgia Southern	-6.0	55.0	W 21 - 14	U	Y
Thu 11/4	Georgia State at Louisiana	+13.5	53.5	L 17 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/13	Georgia State at Coastal Carolina	+12.5	53.5	W 42 - 40	O	Y
Sat 11/20	Georgia State vs Arkansas State	-15.5	66.0	W 28 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/27	Georgia State vs Troy	-6.5	49.5	W 37 - 10	U	Y
Sat 12/25	Georgia State vs Ball State	-6.0	52.5	W 51 - 20	O	Y

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	.25	43%	25.2	39%	2.82	125	46%	364	3.99	.22	42%	27.4	37%	47%	3.88	57.4	1.5	1.1
GAST	.17	42%	19.8	42%	2.72	194	42%	230	4.55	.13	41%	37.8	40%	41%	3.45	58.3	2	2.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
GAST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Offense	11	25.2	21	42.8%	3.99	1.5	24	490	125	364	3.6	42%	57%	39%	46%	16%	.25
GAST Defense	10	37.8	30.3	40.6%	3.45	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	43%	57%	40%	41%	20%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Defense	11	27.4	21.8	42.2%	3.88	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	37%	47%	17%	.22
GAST Offense	10	19.8	21.5	41.9%	4.55	2	21	424	194	230	4.4	57%	43%	42%	42%	17%	.17

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas State	11	28:38	24.5	40%	50%	6.4	57.4	1.5	1.1	6.9	1.8	1	25.9
Georgia State	10	28:38	20.7	45%	64%	5.5	58.3	2	2.1	7.4	3.2	1	34.4

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Offense	11	42%	39%	34.9	125.2	3.6	7	.01	2.82	64%	9%	0.9
GAST Defense	10	43%	40%	-	-	-	-	.04	2.75	56%	12%	0.99

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Defense	11	50%	37%	-	-	-	-	.02	2.44	64%	11%	1.06
GAST Offense	10	57%	42%	44.1	193.7	4.4	22	.12	2.72	64%	11%	1.05

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Offense	11	57%	46%	25.1	42.2	364.4	8.6	14.5	39	9	.43	1.8	34%	36%	.4	7%	2
GAST Defense	10	57%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.19	1.7	32%	34%	.32	8%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Defense	11	50%	47%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.42	1.7	31%	34%	.4	5%	2.2
GAST Offense	10	43%	42%	17.9	30.7	230.3	7.5	12.9	18	10	.24	1.7	30%	35%	.41	6%	2

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Arkansas State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Arkansas State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.9 #120
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #109
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.0 #125

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: Georgia State: 3.4

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -17.9 Georgia State: 1.8

Georgia State's Power Ratings
Georgia State's Power Rating: 3.4 NR
Georgia State's Offense Rating: NR
Georgia State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #102
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Georgia State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Georgia State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.8 #71
Georgia State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #78
Georgia State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.8

Arkansas State's 2021 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 9
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Arkansas State 29
Georgia State 23

Projected Total Points: 52

Georgia State Scoring
Offense: 19.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.5
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 30.3

Georgia State's 2021 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/16	Georgia State	20	Arkansas State	27	Georgia State -2.5	Arkansas State	60.0	Under
2021	11/20	Georgia State	28	Arkansas State	20	Georgia State -15.5	Arkansas State	66.0	Under
2020	10/15	Arkansas State	59	Georgia State	52	Arkansas State -3.5	Arkansas State	72.5	Over
2019	10/05	Georgia State	52	Arkansas State	38	Arkansas State -6.5	Georgia State	69.0	Over
2018	10/18	Arkansas State	51	Georgia State	35	Arkansas State -13.5	Arkansas State	55.5	Over
2016	11/03	Georgia State	16	Arkansas State	31	Arkansas State -2	Arkansas State	48.0	Under
2015	10/31	Arkansas State	48	Georgia State	34	Arkansas State -18.5	Georgia State	57.5	Over
2014	10/11	Georgia State	10	Arkansas State	52	Arkansas State -13.5	Arkansas State	0
2013	11/23	Arkansas State	35	Georgia State	33	Arkansas State -23	Georgia State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Georgia State	2	3	4 Overs
Arkansas State	7	6	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 3	3 - 6	2 - 4	1 - 2
Road Teams	3 - 6	6 - 3	2 - 1	4 - 2

(#) ARST at (#) GAST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARST	GAST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#120	#71
Perf GradeGrade	#123	#60
OffenseOff	#112	#62
DefenseDef	#129	#63
Spec TeamsST	#41	#95
TalentTal	#82	#102
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Arkansas State Injury Report

Georgia State Injury Report

Arkansas State on Offense


CategoryCat	ARST Off	GAST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#112	#63
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#109	#65
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Arkansas State Run Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	GAST Def
Run GameRun	#110	#39
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#131	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#94

Arkansas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	GAST Def
Pass GamePass	#76	#90
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#77	#27
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Georgia State on Offense


CategoryCat	GAST Off	ARST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#62	#129
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#78	#125
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Georgia State Run Game


CategoryCat	GAST Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	#56	#134
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#36	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#127

Georgia State Pass Game


CategoryCat	GAST Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	#83	#99
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#110	#39
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
GAST 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'21 Profile: Up to Top G5

ARST 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Georgia State Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 12
Georgia State -15.5 (66.0)
Georgia State won vs Arkansas State this year (28-20)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat Georgia State in 2024 (27-20)

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Rob Harley (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

GAST's OC Brad Glenn (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Georgia State's Full Roster

GAST's DC Nate Fuqua (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD