Memphis at Arkansas State - 2021 Matchup Preview

Memphis Tigers at Arkansas State Red Wolves

Saturday, September 11th 2021 (7:00 PM EDT)
Memphis -5.5 (65.0)
Memphis 55 - Arkansas State: 50

Tigers (6 - 6) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Ryan Silverfield (11 - 4)
Avg Score : 33 - 23 (35 - 21 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ARST 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: -7 (SP+ MEM -19)
Projected Score: MEM: 31 - ARST: 24 (55)
MEM Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
MEM Travel: 64 miles

Red Wolves (2 - 10) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (29 - 27 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MEM Players
ARST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Memphis's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Memphis vs Nicholls	-22.5	68.0	W 42 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Memphis at Arkansas State	-5.5	65.0	W 55 - 50	O	N
Sat 9/18	Memphis vs Mississippi State	+3.0	63.0	W 31 - 29	U	Y
Sat 9/25	Memphis vs UTSA	-3.0	66.5	L 28 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/2	Memphis at Temple	-11.0	58.5	L 31 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/9	Memphis at Tulsa	+3.0	60.5	L 29 - 35	O	N
Thu 10/14	Memphis vs Navy	-11.0	55.5	W 35 - 17	U	Y
Fri 10/22	Memphis at UCF	+1.5	63.5	L 7 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/6	Memphis vs SMU	+3.5	72.0	W 28 - 25	U	Y
Sat 11/13	Memphis vs East Carolina	-4.0	58.5	L 29 - 30	O	N
Fri 11/19	Memphis at Houston	+9.0	59.5	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/27	Memphis vs Tulane	-5.5	58.0	W 33 - 28	O	N
Fri 12/24	Memphis at Hawai'i	-10.0	56.0

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Memphis's Schedule

Arkansas State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas	-13.5	64.0	W 40 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Arkansas State vs Memphis	+5.5	65.0	L 50 - 55	O	Y
Sat 9/18	Arkansas State at Washington	+17.5	58.5	L 3 - 52	U	N
Sat 9/25	Arkansas State at Tulsa	+14.5	65.0	L 34 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/2	Arkansas State at Georgia Southern	+1.5	66.5	L 33 - 59	O	N
Thu 10/7	Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina	+20.5	74.5	L 20 - 52	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/21	Arkansas State vs Louisiana	+17.0	70.0	L 27 - 28	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Arkansas State at South Alabama	+9.5	67.0	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/6	Arkansas State vs App State	+21.5	67.5	L 14 - 48	U	N
Sat 11/13	Arkansas State at UL Monroe	+3.0	66.5	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/20	Arkansas State at Georgia State	+15.5	66.0	L 20 - 28	U	Y
Sat 11/27	Arkansas State vs Texas State	-2.0	62.0	L 22 - 24	U	N

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MEM	.2	43%	32.5	41%	2.62	145	44%	308	3.72	.19	43%	23.2	41%	44%	3.63	47.3	1.6	1.8
ARST	.25	43%	25.2	39%	2.82	125	46%	364	3.99	.22	42%	27.4	37%	47%	3.88	57.4	1.5	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MEM		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MEM Offense	11	32.5	35	42.7%	3.72	1.6	24	453	145	308	4	46%	54%	41%	44%	18%	.2
ARST Defense	11	27.4	27.2	42.2%	3.88	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	37%	47%	17%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MEM Defense	11	23.2	20.8	42.6%	3.63	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	41%	44%	16%	.19
ARST Offense	11	25.2	29	42.8%	3.99	1.5	24	490	125	364	3.6	42%	57%	39%	46%	16%	.25

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Memphis	11	28:57	23.5	45%	58%	5.5	47.3	1.6	1.8	6.1	2.4	1	27.8
Arkansas State	11	28:38	24.5	40%	50%	6.4	57.4	1.5	1.1	6.9	1.8	1	25.9

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MEM Offense	11	46%	41%	35.9	145.2	4	9	-.01	2.62	72%	11%	0.82
ARST Defense	11	50%	37%	-	-	-	-	.02	2.44	64%	11%	1.06

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MEM Defense	11	47%	41%	-	-	-	-	.05	3.01	73%	10%	0.92
ARST Offense	11	42%	39%	34.9	125.2	3.6	7	.01	2.82	64%	9%	0.9

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MEM Offense	11	54%	44%	23	38.3	307.5	8	13.4	31	10	.38	1.8	33%	36%	.49	7%	2.1
ARST Defense	11	50%	47%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.42	1.7	31%	34%	.4	5%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MEM Defense	11	53%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.31	1.6	32%	35%	.42	6%	2.1
ARST Offense	11	57%	46%	25.1	42.2	364.4	8.6	14.5	39	9	.43	1.8	34%	36%	.4	7%	2

Memphis's Power Ratings
Memphis's Power Rating: NR
Memphis's Offense Rating: NR
Memphis's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #65
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Memphis's 2021 Expected Record: -
Memphis's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.0 #74
Memphis's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #60
Memphis's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #78

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Memphis: Arkansas State: -6.45

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Memphis: 1.0 Arkansas State: -17.9

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -6.45 NR
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Arkansas State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Arkansas State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.9 #120
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #109
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.0 #125

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Memphis Scoring
Offense: 32.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 35
Defense: 23.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.8

Memphis's 2021 Record
Record: 6 - 6
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Memphis 31
Arkansas State 24

Projected Total Points: 55

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

Arkansas State's 2021 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 9
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/09	Arkansas State	3	Memphis	37	Memphis -21	Memphis	57.0	Under
2022	09/17	Memphis	44	Arkansas State	32	Memphis -14.5	Arkansas State	64.0	Over
2021	09/11	Arkansas State	50	Memphis	55	Memphis -5.5	Arkansas State	65.0	Over
2020	09/05	Memphis	37	Arkansas State	24	Memphis -18.5	Arkansas State	71.5	Under
2013	09/21	Memphis	31	Arkansas State	7	Arkansas State -3	Memphis	0
2012	09/08	Arkansas State	33	Memphis	28
2011	09/10	Arkansas State	47	Memphis	3
2008	09/27	Memphis	29	Arkansas State	17
2007	09/27	Arkansas State	35	Memphis	31
2006	10/14	Memphis	23	Arkansas State	26
2004	09/18	Arkansas State	35	Memphis	47
2003	09/27	Memphis	38	Arkansas State	16
2000	09/15	Arkansas State	17	Memphis	19

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arkansas State	4	3	2 Overs
Memphis	9	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 5	2 - 3	0 - 2	2 - 1
Road Teams	5 - 8	3 - 2	1 - 2	2 - 0

(#) MEM at (#) ARST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MEM	ARST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#74	#120
Perf GradeGrade	#74	#123
OffenseOff	#81	#112
DefenseDef	#45	#129
Spec TeamsST	#76	#41
TalentTal	#65	#82
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Memphis Injury Report

Arkansas State Injury Report

Memphis on Offense


CategoryCat	MEM Off	ARST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#81	#129
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#60	#125
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Memphis Run Game


CategoryCat	MEM Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	#94	#134
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#87	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#127

Memphis Pass Game


CategoryCat	MEM Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	#90	#99
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#88	#39
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Arkansas State on Offense


CategoryCat	ARST Off	MEM Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#112	#45
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#109	#78
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Arkansas State Run Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	MEM Def
Run GameRun	#110	#64
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#131	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#30

Arkansas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	MEM Def
Pass GamePass	#76	#22
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#77	#92
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ARST 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

MEM 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Centennial Bank Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 2
Memphis 5.5 (65.0)
Memphis won at Arkansas State this year (55-50)

Previous Matchups
Memphis beat Arkansas State in 2023 (37-3)

MEM's OC Kevin Johns (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Memphis's Full Roster

MEM's DC Mike MacIntyre (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Rob Harley (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD