Arkansas State Red Wolves at Troy Trojans
Saturday, November 1st 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Veterans Memorial Stadium - Troy, AL (Sun Belt)
Red Wolves (1 - 2) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (18 - 31)
Avg Score : 24 - 35 (24 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.4 - 7.6 (#108)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 9)
Coach Butch Jones (18 - 31)
Avg Score : 24 - 35 (24 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.4 - 7.6 (#108)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 9)
TROY 2nd straight Home Game
TROY is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Troy -11 (SP+ TROY -3)
Projected Score: ARST: 21 - TROY: 32 (53)
TROY Win prob: 78% | Cover: 49%
ARST Travel: 389 miles
TROY is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Troy -11 (SP+ TROY -3)
Projected Score: ARST: 21 - TROY: 32 (53)
TROY Win prob: 78% | Cover: 49%
ARST Travel: 389 miles
Trojans (1 - 2) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Gerad Parker (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 20 - 25 (23 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.1 - 5.9 (#79)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
Coach Gerad Parker (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 20 - 25 (23 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.1 - 5.9 (#79)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
| Arkansas State's 2025 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Sat 8/30 | Arkansas State vs Southeast Missouri State | -15.5 | 59.5 | W 42 - 24 | O | Y | |
| Sat 9/6 | Arkansas State vs Arkansas | +23.5 | 62.0 | L 14 - 56 | O | N | |
| Sat 9/13 | Arkansas State vs Iowa State | +21.0 | 55.5 | L 16 - 24 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/20 | Arkansas State at Kennesaw State | -6.0 | 56.5 | ||||
| Sat 9/27 | Arkansas State at UL Monroe | -2.5 | |||||
| Sat 10/4 | Arkansas State vs Texas State | +11.5 | |||||
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Tue 10/14 | Arkansas State at South Alabama | +12.5 | |||||
| Sat 10/25 | Arkansas State vs Georgia Southern | -5 | |||||
| Sat 11/1 | Arkansas State at Troy | +11 | |||||
| Sat 11/8 | Arkansas State vs Southern Miss | +8 | |||||
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Thu 11/20 | Arkansas State vs Louisiana | +3 | |||||
| Sat 11/29 | Arkansas State at App State | +8 | |||||
Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
| Troy's 2025 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Sat 8/30 | Troy vs Nicholls | -16.5 | 46.5 | W 38 - 20 | O | Y | |
| Sat 9/6 | Troy at Clemson | +31.0 | 51.5 | L 16 - 27 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/13 | Troy vs Memphis | +4.5 | 51.5 | L 7 - 28 | U | N | |
| Sat 9/20 | Troy at Buffalo | +6.0 | 42.5 | ||||
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Troy vs South Alabama | -1 | |||||
| Sat 10/11 | Troy at Texas State | +8 | |||||
| Sat 10/18 | Troy at UL Monroe | -10.5 | |||||
| Sat 10/25 | Troy vs Louisiana | -5.5 | |||||
| Sat 11/1 | Troy vs Arkansas State | -11 | |||||
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Thu 11/13 | Troy at Old Dominion | +9 | |||||
| Sat 11/22 | Troy vs Georgia State | -16 | |||||
| Sat 11/29 | Troy at Southern Miss | +5 | |||||
Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Predictions for Troy's Schedule
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Important Stats (2025)
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST | #108 (.09) | 41% (87) | 24 | 45% (60) | 2.62 (101) | 153 | 38% (103) | 233 | 3.65 (88) | #130 (.42) | 52% (132) | 34.7 | 52% (125) | 52% (128) | 4.61 (110) | 72 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| TROY | #101 (.1) | 38% (110) | 20.3 | 42% (84) | 3.09 (60) | 130 | 33% (116) | 146 | 3.09 (115) | #57 (.11) | 42% (82) | 25 | 44% (94) | 40% (67) | 5.08 (123) | 72.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST | #81 (.17) | 41% (91) | 43% (84) | 3.01 (77) | 148 | 39% (96) | 210 | 3.96 (63) | #126 (.31) | 48% (124) | 51% (131) | 44% (110) | 4.62 (127) | 47.8 | 1.3 | 1.4 | ||
| TROY | #50 (.22) | 44% (49) | 42% (94) | 2.88 (95) | 157 | 48% (15) | 213 | 4.43 (22) | #77 (.18) | 43% (87) | 45% (87) | 42% (76) | 3.77 (65) | 58.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
Overall Stats 2025
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST Offense | 3 | 24 | 24 | 41.5% | 3.65 | 1.3 | 23 | 386 | 153 | 233 | 3.9 | 47% | 53% | 45% | 38% | 18% | .09 |
| TROY Defense | 3 | 25 | 24 | 42% | 5.08 | 1.3 | - | - | - | - | - | 53% | 47% | 44% | 40% | 17% | .11 |
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST Defense | 3 | 34.7 | 34.7 | 52% | 4.61 | 1.3 | - | - | - | - | - | 51% | 48% | 52% | 52% | 14% | .42 |
| TROY Offense | 3 | 20.3 | 22.5 | 37.5% | 3.09 | 1.3 | 17 | 276 | 130 | 146 | 3.9 | 49% | 51% | 42% | 33% | 16% | .1 |
Additional Stats 2025
| Teams | Games | Possession Time | 1st Downs PG | 3rd Down % | 4th Down % | Penalties PG | Penalty Yds PG | Off TO PG | Def TO PG | TFL PG | Sacks PG | D/ST TDs | Avg Field Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas State | 3 | 34:10 | 22.7 | 48% | 33% | 7.7 | 72 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 1.7 | 1 | 30.9 |
| Troy | 3 | 28:57 | 17 | 42% | 50% | 7.3 | 72.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 6 | 2.7 | 1 | 26.3 |
Run Game Stats (2025)
Pass Game Stats (2025)
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST Offense | 3 | 47% (91) | 45% (60) | 39.3 | 153.3 | 3.9 | 4 (79) | .04 (98) | 2.62 (101) | 60% (103) | 12% (112) | 0.96 (67) |
| TROY Defense | 3 | 53% (96) | 44% (94) | - | - | - | - | .04 (62) | 3.33 (125) | 77% (98) | 11% (48) | 0.81 (36) |
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST Defense | 3 | 51% (87) | 52% (125) | - | - | - | - | .31 (128) | 3.23 (113) | 100% (127) | 7% (115) | 1.06 (92) |
| TROY Offense | 3 | 49% (80) | 42% (84) | 33 | 130 | 3.9 | 2 (109) | .12 (75) | 3.09 (60) | 77% (45) | 8% (63) | 0.98 (61) |
Pass Game Stats (2025)
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST Offense | 3 | 53% (45) | 38% (103) | 22.3 | 33.7 | 233 | 6.9 | 10.4 | 4 (72) | 3 (92) | .14 (105) | 1.6 (42) | 28% (47) | 30% (80) | .4 (53) | 6% (96) | 2.3 (20) |
| TROY Defense | 3 | 47% (44) | 40% (67) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 2 (56) | .18 (58) | 1.6 (85) | 30% (105) | 27% (53) | .17 (49) | 5% (85) | 2.2 (99) |
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST Defense | 3 | 48% (50) | 52% (128) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 3 (28) | .58 (129) | 1.7 (105) | 27% (122) | 36% (117) | .58 (120) | 7% (48) | 2.2 (103) |
| TROY Offense | 3 | 51% (57) | 33% (116) | 15 | 29 | 146.3 | 5.1 | 9.8 | 4 (72) | 4 (121) | .08 (119) | 1.6 (56) | 36% (121) | 24% (113) | .26 (86) | 8% (128) | 2.2 (40) |
Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -20.80 #131
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 7.87 #90
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 28.87 #134
2025 Talent Rating: 702.00 #75
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #79
Arkansas State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.4 - 7.6
Arkansas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.2 #104
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.9 #80
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.2 #122
Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -20.80 #131
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 7.87 #90
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 28.87 #134
2025 Talent Rating: 702.00 #75
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #79
Arkansas State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.4 - 7.6
Arkansas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.2 #104
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.9 #80
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.2 #122
Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85
Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -20.80 Troy: -4.7
SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -10.2 Troy: -7.7
Arkansas State: -20.80 Troy: -4.7
SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -10.2 Troy: -7.7
Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: -4.7 #97
Troy's Offense Rating: 6.79 #95
Troy's Defense Rating: 13.48 #95
2025 Talent Rating: 584.00 #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #65
Troy's 2025 Expected Record: 6.1 - 5.9
Troy's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.7 #91
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #107
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #88
Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85
Troy's Power Rating: -4.7 #97
Troy's Offense Rating: 6.79 #95
Troy's Defense Rating: 13.48 #95
2025 Talent Rating: 584.00 #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #65
Troy's 2025 Expected Record: 6.1 - 5.9
Troy's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.7 #91
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #107
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #88
Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85
Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense on Road: 24
Defense: 34.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.7
Arkansas State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense on Road: 24
Defense: 34.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.7
Arkansas State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Troy 32
Arkansas State 21
Total Points: 53
Troy 32
Arkansas State 21
Total Points: 53
Troy Scoring
Offense: 20.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 22.5
Defense: 25 PPG
Defense at Home: 24
Troy's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 1 - 0
Offense: 20.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 22.5
Defense: 25 PPG
Defense at Home: 24
Troy's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 1 - 0
| Year | Date | Home | Score | Away | Score | Winner | Spread | Cover | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 10/26 | Arkansas State | 34 | Troy | 31 | Arkansas State | Arkansas State -8.5 | Troy | 50.0 | Over |
| 2023 | 10/07 | Troy | 37 | Arkansas State | 3 | Troy | Troy -15.5 | Troy | 52.0 | Under |
| 2022 | 11/26 | Arkansas State | 19 | Troy | 48 | Troy | Troy -13.5 | Troy | 43.5 | Over |
| 2020 | 10/31 | Arkansas State | 10 | Troy | 38 | Troy | Arkansas State -3.5 | Troy | 0 | |
| 2019 | 09/28 | Troy | 43 | Arkansas State | 50 | Arkansas State | Troy -7 | Arkansas State | 59.5 | Over |
| 2017 | 12/02 | Arkansas State | 25 | Troy | 32 | Troy | Arkansas State -1 | Troy | 60.0 | Under |
| 2016 | 11/17 | Troy | 3 | Arkansas State | 35 | Arkansas State | Troy -8.5 | Arkansas State | 53.5 | Under |
| 2013 | 09/12 | Arkansas State | 41 | Troy | 34 | Arkansas State | Arkansas State -10 | Troy | 0 | |
| 2012 | 11/17 | Troy | 34 | Arkansas State | 41 | Arkansas State | ||||
| 2011 | 12/03 | Arkansas State | 45 | Troy | 14 | Arkansas State | ||||
| 2010 | 09/25 | Troy | 35 | Arkansas State | 28 | Troy | ||||
| 2009 | 09/26 | Arkansas State | 27 | Troy | 30 | Troy | ||||
| 2008 | 12/06 | Troy | 35 | Arkansas State | 9 | Troy | ||||
| 2007 | 10/27 | Arkansas State | 0 | Troy | 27 | Troy | ||||
| 2006 | 11/18 | Troy | 26 | Arkansas State | 33 | Arkansas State | ||||
| 2005 | 11/12 | Arkansas State | 9 | Troy | 3 | Arkansas State | ||||
| 2004 | 10/16 | Arkansas State | 13 | Troy | 9 | Arkansas State |
| Team | Wins | Covers | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troy | 8 | 6 | 3 Overs |
| Arkansas State | 9 | 2 | 3 Unders |
| Wins | Covers | Favs | Dogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Teams | 8 - 9 | 1 - 7 | 1 - 6 | 0 - 1 |
| Road Teams | 9 - 8 | 7 - 1 | 1 - 0 | 6 - 1 |
(#131) Arkansas State Info
Power Rating: -20.80 #131
Offense Rating: 7.87 #90
Defense Rating: 28.87 #134
Overall SP+ Rating: -10.2 #104
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.9 #80
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.2 #122
Talent Rating: 702.00 #75
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #79
Expected Record: 4.4 - 7.6
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 41%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.65 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 52%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.61 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 52%
Awful Pass Def Success 52%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position
Arkansas State has lost 7 straight
Arkansas State has lost 4 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 0 (0 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )
Arkansas State Notes
(8/1) Tempo was top 20 in CFB LY, likely same TY
(8/1) OL 1/5 back. 6 OL portals & some good adds
(8/1) Def added 17 portals, fired most staff LY
(8/1) HC Jones 1+ win each year, but 5-19 on road
(7/13) QB, WR, OC & HC all back. Could jump TY
(7/12) WR Rucker great (1k LY), 5 portal adds
(5/23) Ark St was 7-1 in 1 score games LY, -4 SOW
(3/23) QB Raynor a weapon, fun but must limit TOs
(3/23) RB Cross back, Clay (USM) added, some depth
(3/23) Def was near worst in CFB LY, not much back
Arkansas State Highlights
Arkansas State offense is good on 3rd downs
Arkansas State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)
Arkansas State Deficiencies
Arkansas State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#109)
Arkansas State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#117)
Arkansas State pass game is really bad (#103)
Arkansas State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Arkansas State has a bad defense (#132)
Arkansas State Does Not Stuff Runs (#119)
Arkansas State has a bad defensive line (#113)
Arkansas State has a bad red zone defense (#110)
Power Rating: -20.80 #131
Offense Rating: 7.87 #90
Defense Rating: 28.87 #134
Overall SP+ Rating: -10.2 #104
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.9 #80
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.2 #122
Talent Rating: 702.00 #75
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #79
Expected Record: 4.4 - 7.6
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 41%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.65 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 52%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.61 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 52%
Awful Pass Def Success 52%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position
Arkansas State has lost 7 straight
Arkansas State has lost 4 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 0 (0 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )
Arkansas State Notes
(8/1) Tempo was top 20 in CFB LY, likely same TY
(8/1) OL 1/5 back. 6 OL portals & some good adds
(8/1) Def added 17 portals, fired most staff LY
(8/1) HC Jones 1+ win each year, but 5-19 on road
(7/13) QB, WR, OC & HC all back. Could jump TY
(7/12) WR Rucker great (1k LY), 5 portal adds
(5/23) Ark St was 7-1 in 1 score games LY, -4 SOW
(3/23) QB Raynor a weapon, fun but must limit TOs
(3/23) RB Cross back, Clay (USM) added, some depth
(3/23) Def was near worst in CFB LY, not much back
Arkansas State Highlights
Arkansas State offense is good on 3rd downs
Arkansas State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)
Arkansas State Deficiencies
Arkansas State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#109)
Arkansas State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#117)
Arkansas State pass game is really bad (#103)
Arkansas State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Arkansas State has a bad defense (#132)
Arkansas State Does Not Stuff Runs (#119)
Arkansas State has a bad defensive line (#113)
Arkansas State has a bad red zone defense (#110)
| Performance GradesPerf Grades | ||
|---|---|---|
| CategoryCat | TROY | ARST |
| OverallOver | #85 | #84 |
| OffenseOff | #79 | #81 |
| DefenseDef | #85 | #94 |
| Special TeamsST | #84 | #70 |
| PassingPass | #92 | #63 |
| RushingRush | #66 | #81 |
| Run BlockRBLK | #44 | #92 |
| Pass BlockPBLK | #48 | #38 |
| Route RunningWR Rt | #93 | #78 |
| TacklingTkl | #96 | #47 |
| Run DefenseR Def | #90 | #90 |
| Pass Rush DefPRush | #77 | #110 |
| Coverage DefCov | #71 | #95 |
(#97) Troy Info
Power Rating: -4.7 #97
Offense Rating: 6.79 #95
Defense Rating: 13.48 #95
Overall SP+ Rating: -7.7 #91
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #107
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #88
Talent Rating: 584.00 #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #65
Expected Record: 6.1 - 5.9
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 38%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.09 PPO
Bad Run Success 42%
Awful Pass Success 33%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Awful in Scoring Position 5.08 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 44%
Bad Pass Def Success 40%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
Troy has lost 7 straight
Troy has lost 3 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 1 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)
Troy Notes
(8/1) OL bad LY, 3/5 back, 5 portal adds. Looks Ok
(7/12) Finished 3-1, fought hard after 1-7 start
(7/12) RB 3 portals, 2 FCS adds. Lots of ? all over
(5/4) M Caldwell lost QB battle, transfer to Texas
(5/4) QB1A, RB1, TE1, DE1, CB1 all gone post spring
(5/4) QB Crowder (starter/inj) won QB1 job in spring
(4/14) RB Taylor (1k LY) big spring portal loss, big ?
(4/8) Top CB LJ Green (So) into portal in spring
(3/24) WR rebuild. Higgins/Taylor exp'd. 3 portals
(3/24) Def solid LY, returns a ton. 5 portals, looks good
Troy Highlights
Troy Deficiencies
Troy has a really bad Offense
Troy Commits a Lot of Penalties (#103)
Troy throws a Lot of Interceptions (#121)
Troy offense is really bad (#110)
Troy offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#115)
Troy pass game is really bad (#116)
Troy Does Not Stuff Runs (#110)
Troy has a bad defensive line (#125)
Troy has a bad red zone defense (#123)
Power Rating: -4.7 #97
Offense Rating: 6.79 #95
Defense Rating: 13.48 #95
Overall SP+ Rating: -7.7 #91
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #107
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #88
Talent Rating: 584.00 #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #65
Expected Record: 6.1 - 5.9
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 38%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.09 PPO
Bad Run Success 42%
Awful Pass Success 33%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Awful in Scoring Position 5.08 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 44%
Bad Pass Def Success 40%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
Troy has lost 7 straight
Troy has lost 3 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 1 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)
Troy Notes
(8/1) OL bad LY, 3/5 back, 5 portal adds. Looks Ok
(7/12) Finished 3-1, fought hard after 1-7 start
(7/12) RB 3 portals, 2 FCS adds. Lots of ? all over
(5/4) M Caldwell lost QB battle, transfer to Texas
(5/4) QB1A, RB1, TE1, DE1, CB1 all gone post spring
(5/4) QB Crowder (starter/inj) won QB1 job in spring
(4/14) RB Taylor (1k LY) big spring portal loss, big ?
(4/8) Top CB LJ Green (So) into portal in spring
(3/24) WR rebuild. Higgins/Taylor exp'd. 3 portals
(3/24) Def solid LY, returns a ton. 5 portals, looks good
Troy Highlights
Troy Deficiencies
Troy has a really bad Offense
Troy Commits a Lot of Penalties (#103)
Troy throws a Lot of Interceptions (#121)
Troy offense is really bad (#110)
Troy offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#115)
Troy pass game is really bad (#116)
Troy Does Not Stuff Runs (#110)
Troy has a bad defensive line (#125)
Troy has a bad red zone defense (#123)
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Raynor | 66 | 98 | 67% | 692 | 4 | 3 | 7.1 |
| Josh Flowers | 1 | 3 | 33% | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Raynor | 35 | 138 | 1 | 3.9 | 21 |
| Kenyon Clay (Tr) | 40 | 120 | 1 | 3.0 | 13 |
| Devin Spencer | 18 | 104 | 1 | 5.8 | 43 |
| Kameron Thomas | 8 | 38 | 0 | 4.8 | 23 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chauncy Cobb | 16 | 216 | 0 | 13.5 | 45 |
| Corey Rucker | 6 | 105 | 1 | 17.5 | 50 |
| Hunter Summers | 6 | 96 | 0 | 16.0 | 39 |
| Jaylen Bonelli (Tr) | 8 | 95 | 1 | 11.9 | 34 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nigel Nelson | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Terry Kirksey Jr. (Tr) | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Barnes | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| AG McGhee (Tr) | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan Hassler | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Cody Sigler (Tr) | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Drew Collins | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Terry Kirksey Jr. (Tr) | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trenton Alan Yowe | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| AG McGhee (Tr) | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Nigel Nelson | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Crowder | 35 | 58 | 60% | 374 | 4 | 3 | 6.4 |
| Tucker Kilcrease | 10 | 29 | 35% | 65 | 0 | 1 | 2.2 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tae Meadows | 44 | 269 | 1 | 6.1 | 47 |
| Jordan Lovett | 20 | 83 | 0 | 4.2 | 15 |
| Will Crowder | 17 | 53 | 1 | 3.1 | 16 |
| DJ Epps | 2 | 12 | 0 | 6.0 | 8 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tray Taylor (Tr) | 5 | 97 | 2 | 19.4 | 44 |
| Roman Mothershed | 10 | 90 | 1 | 9.0 | 27 |
| Ethan Conner | 7 | 73 | 1 | 10.4 | 24 |
| Rara Thomas (Tr) | 5 | 47 | 0 | 9.4 | 19 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Stringer | 26 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Lafayette | 23 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Jaquez White | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Taleeq Robbins (Tr) | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donnie Smith | 9 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Luis Medina | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jah-Mal Williams | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Devin Lafayette | 23 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Lafayette | 23 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Jaquez White | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Taleeq Robbins (Tr) | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |