Arkansas State at Troy Game Matchup
Arkansas State logo Arkansas State Red Wolves at Troy TrojansTroy logo
Saturday, November 1st 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Veterans Memorial Stadium - Troy, AL  (Sun Belt)

 
Red Wolves (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (18 - 31)
Avg Score : 26 - 32 (21 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#96)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 10)
TROY 2nd straight Home Game
TROY is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Troy -9   (SP+ TROY -4)
Projected Score: ARST: 23 - TROY: 32 (56)
TROY Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
ARST Travel: 389 miles
Trojans (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Gerad Parker (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 26 - 28 (29 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.9 - 5.1 (#53)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
 
Arkansas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Arkansas State vs Southeast Missouri State-12.5
Sat 9/6 Arkansas State vs Arkansas+23
Sat 9/13 Arkansas State vs Iowa State+19.5
Sat 9/20 Arkansas State at Kennesaw State-7
Sat 9/27 Arkansas State at UL Monroe-1.5
Sat 10/4 Arkansas State vs Texas State+4
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 Arkansas State at South Alabama+11
Sat 10/25 Arkansas State vs Georgia Southern+5
Sat 11/1 Arkansas State at Troy+9
Sat 11/8 Arkansas State vs Southern Miss-0
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/20 Arkansas State vs Louisiana+2
Sat 11/29 Arkansas State at App State-0.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 5, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 5, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule
Troy's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Troy vs Nicholls-19
Sat 9/6 Troy at Clemson+32.5
Sat 9/13 Troy vs Memphis+4
Sat 9/20 Troy at Buffalo-0.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Troy vs South Alabama-1
Sat 10/11 Troy at Texas State+2
Sat 10/18 Troy at UL Monroe-8
Sat 10/25 Troy vs Louisiana-5
Sat 11/1 Troy vs Arkansas State-9
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/13 Troy at Old Dominion-3.5
Sat 11/22 Troy vs Georgia State-14.5
Sat 11/29 Troy at Southern Miss-2

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 6, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 6, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Troy's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARST#81 (.17)41% (91)25.843% (84)3.01 (77)14839% (96)2103.96 (63)#126 (.31)48% (124)32.251% (131)44% (110)4.62 (127)47.81.31.4
TROY#50 (.22)44% (49)2642% (94)2.88 (95)15748% (15)2134.43 (22)#77 (.18)43% (87)28.445% (87)42% (76)3.77 (65)58.81.30.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TROY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARST Offense1325.820.741%3.961.3203571482104.348%52%43%39%16%.17
TROY Defense1228.422.543.3%3.770.7 - - - - - 53%47%45%42%17%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARST Defense1332.237.348%4.621.4 - - - - - 52%48%51%44%15%.31
TROY Offense122629.344.3%4.431.3203701572134.454%46%42%48%16%.22

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Arkansas State1326:5620.340%75%5.147.81.31.44.51.4127.6
Troy1230:1720.350%47%6.758.81.30.76.31.5227
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARST Offense1348% (83)43% (84)34.8147.84.316 (90).12 (72)3.01 (77)73% (71)9% (48)0.9 (99)
TROY Defense1253% (89)45% (87) - - - - .12 (68)2.99 (64)71% (52)11% (40)0.91 (36)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARST Defense1352% (84)51% (131) - - - - .28 (131)3.45 (127)73% (65)9% (82)1.02 (85)
TROY Offense1254% (43)42% (94)36.1157.34.417 (84).11 (82)2.88 (95)76% (49)11% (89)0.95 (77)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARST Offense1352% (49)39% (96)19.631.6209.66.610.717 (79)9 (48).21 (90)1.5 (88)31% (67)32% (55).39 (42)8% (115)2 (97)
TROY Defense1247% (48)42% (76) - - - - - - 6 (109).25 (79)1.6 (76)29% (107)30% (71).28 (58)5% (91)2 (47)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARST Defense1348% (52)44% (110) - - - - - - 14 (23).35 (115)1.7 (103)29% (106)32% (89).51 (125)6% (74)2.3 (122)
TROY Offense1246% (92)48% (15)17.828.3213.17.51221 (51)9 (48).36 (25)1.5 (81)31% (64)35% (32).41 (35)5% (50)1.9 (109)

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -12.25 #99
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 15.08 #62
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 27.33 #130
2025 Talent Rating: 682.00 #75
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #73
Arkansas State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Arkansas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9 #100
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.9 #68
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #122

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 527
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -12.25   Troy: -1.845

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -9.9   Troy: -6.0




Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: -1.845 #74
Troy's Offense Rating: 12.96 #75
Troy's Defense Rating: 15.65 #74
2025 Talent Rating: 560.00 #90
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #73
Troy's 2025 Expected Record: 6.9 - 5.1
Troy's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.0 #86
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.8 #96
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.8 #81

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 527
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29


Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.7
Defense: 32.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.3

Arkansas State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Troy 32
Arkansas State 23

Projected Total Points: 56
Troy Scoring
Offense: 26 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.3
Defense: 28.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.5

Troy's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/26Arkansas State34Troy31Arkansas StateArkansas State -8.5Troy50.0Over
202310/07Troy37Arkansas State3TroyTroy -15.5Troy52.0Under
202211/26Arkansas State19Troy48TroyTroy -13.5Troy43.5Over
202010/31Arkansas State10Troy38TroyArkansas State -3.5Troy0
201909/28Troy43Arkansas State50Arkansas StateTroy -7Arkansas State59.5Over
201712/02Arkansas State25Troy32TroyArkansas State -1Troy60.0Under
201611/17Troy3Arkansas State35Arkansas StateTroy -8.5Arkansas State53.5Under
201309/12Arkansas State41Troy34Arkansas StateArkansas State -10Troy0
201211/17Troy34Arkansas State41Arkansas State
201112/03Arkansas State45Troy14Arkansas State
201009/25Troy35Arkansas State28Troy
200909/26Arkansas State27Troy30Troy
200812/06Troy35Arkansas State9Troy
200710/27Arkansas State0Troy27Troy
200611/18Troy26Arkansas State33Arkansas State
200511/12Arkansas State9Troy3Arkansas State
200410/16Arkansas State13Troy9Arkansas State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Troy863 Overs
Arkansas State923 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 91 - 71 - 60 - 1
Road Teams9 - 87 - 11 - 06 - 1

(#99) Arkansas State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -12.25 #99
Offense Rating: 15.08 #62
Defense Rating: 27.33 #130
Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9 #100
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.9 #68
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #122
Talent Rating: 682.00 #75
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #73
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 3.96 PPO
Bad Run Success 43%
Poor Pass Success 39%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 48%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.62 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 51%
Poor Pass Def Success 44%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position


Arkansas State Notes
(5/23) Ark St was 7-1 in 1 score games LY, -4 SOW
(3/23) QB Raynor a weapon, fun but must limit TOs
(3/23) RB Cross back, Clay (USM) added, some depth
(3/23) WR Rucker great (1k LY), 2 portal adds
(3/23) OL 4/5 back. OT Smith a turnstile, lots of depth
(3/23) Def was near worst in CFB LY, not much back
(3/23) Def added 9 portals, fired most staff LY
(3/23) New DC Dreiling was Utah St Int HC LY
(3/23) HC Jones improved wins each year. Bowl LY
Arkansas State     Ratings Matchup     Troy
Power #99
#74
Off #62
#75
Def #130
#74
Talent #75
#90
SP+ #100
#86
SP+ Off #68
#96
SP+ Def #122
#81

Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat Troy last year (34-31)
Troy beat Arkansas State in 2023 (37-3)
Troy beat Arkansas State in 2022 (48-19)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Veterans Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: ARST | TROY
Depth Chart: ARST | TROY
Rosters: ARST | TROY
(#74) Troy Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -1.845 #74
Offense Rating: 12.96 #75
Defense Rating: 15.65 #74
Overall SP+ Rating: -6.0 #86
Offense SP+ Rating: 23.8 #96
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.8 #81
Talent Rating: 560.00 #90
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #73
Expected Record: 6.9 - 5.1

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.43 PPO
Poor Run Success 42%
Great Pass Success 48%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 43%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.77 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 45%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Troy Notes
(5/4) M Caldwell lost QB battle, transfer to Texas
(5/4) QB1A, RB1, TE1, DE1, CB1 all gone post spring
(5/4) QB Crowder (starter/inj) won QB1 job in spring
(4/14) RB Taylor (1k LY) big spring portal loss, big ?
(4/8) Top CB LJ Green (So) into portal in spring
(3/24) WR rebuild. Higgins/Taylor exp'd. 3 portals
(3/24) OL bad LY, 4/5 back, 3 portal adds. Bump?
(3/24) Def solid LY, returns a ton. 5 portals, looks good
(3/24) 2nd year staff, could have big year w/ roster


  
Arkansas State's OC Keith Heckendorf
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaylen Raynor25942062%278316106.6
Ethan Crawford (Tr)5012042%849077.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ja'Quez Cross11563825.549
Jaylen Raynor13738732.840
Kenyon Clay (Tr)8438774.670
Ethan Crawford (Tr)9720932.221
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Corey Rucker691053715.379
Ja'Quez Cross3522816.520
Kenyon Clay (Tr)21225110.737
Nazeviah Burris (Tr)2220919.522

View Arkansas State's Full Roster
Arkansas State's DC Nate Dreiling
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
AG McGhee (Tr)541000
Christopher Boti361111
Gavin Ransaw (Tr)262131
Bryan Whitehead II24114150
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryan Whitehead II24114150
Gavin Ransaw (Tr)262131
Christopher Boti361111
Terry Kirksey Jr. (Tr)10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Avante Dickerson (Tr)192003
James Reed III71002
Marcus Bradley71011

Troy's OC Sean Reagan
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Will Crowder446370%547508.7
Tucker Kilcrease274955%373317.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tucker Kilcrease3911803.025
Will Crowder176313.712
Tray Taylor (Tr)65809.726
Jordan Lovett175313.19
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Peyton Higgins3130119.737
Tray Taylor (Tr)18262114.659
Ethan Conner1211509.629
Jordan Lovett85607.026

View Troy's Full Roster
Troy's DC Dontae Wright
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Stringer778210
Justin Powe672104
Devin Lafayette506031
Jah-Mal Williams291020
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Julian Peterson255310
Jordan Stringer778210
Justin Powe672104
Steven Cattledge221110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Justin Powe672104
Trent Henry212002
Devin Lafayette506031