Southeast Missouri State at Arkansas State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Southeast Missouri State logo Southeast Missouri State Redhawks at Arkansas State Red WolvesArkansas State logo
Saturday, August 30th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Arkansas State -15.5 (59.5) (-750)  Open: -10.5 | 59.5
Arkansas State 42 - Southeast Missouri State: 24

 
Redhawks (0 - 1) (0 - 1 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 24 - 42 (24 - 42 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: -13   (SP+ ARST -10)
ARST Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
Red Wolves (1 - 2) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (18 - 31)
Avg Score : 24 - 35 (29 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.4 - 7.6 (#108)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 9)
 
Southeast Missouri State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Southeast Missouri State at Arkansas State+15.559.5L 24 - 42ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Southeast Missouri State's Schedule
Arkansas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arkansas State vs Southeast Missouri State-15.559.5W 42 - 24OY
Sat 9/6 Arkansas State vs Arkansas+23.562.0L 14 - 56ON
Sat 9/13 Arkansas State vs Iowa State+21.055.5L 16 - 24UY
Sat 9/20 Arkansas State at Kennesaw State-6.056.5
Sat 9/27 Arkansas State at UL Monroe-2.5
Sat 10/4 Arkansas State vs Texas State+11.5
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 Arkansas State at South Alabama+12.5
Sat 10/25 Arkansas State vs Georgia Southern-5
Sat 11/1 Arkansas State at Troy+11
Sat 11/8 Arkansas State vs Southern Miss+8
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/20 Arkansas State vs Louisiana+3
Sat 11/29 Arkansas State at App State+8

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 6, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 6, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SEMO0%240%000%000%420%0%0000
ARST#108 (.09)41% (87)2445% (60)2.62 (101)15338% (103)2333.65 (88)#130 (.42)52% (132)34.752% (125)52% (128)4.61 (110)721.31.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SEMO0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ARST#81 (.17)41% (91)43% (84)3.01 (77)14839% (96)2103.96 (63)#126 (.31)48% (124)51% (131)44% (110)4.62 (127)47.81.31.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SEMO Offense124240%00000000%0%0%0%0%
ARST Defense334.72452%4.611.3 - - - - - 51%48%52%52%14%.42
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SEMO Defense142420%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
ARST Offense3242941.5%3.651.3233861532333.947%53%45%38%18%.09

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Southeast Missouri State10:000NAN%0%0000000100
Arkansas State334:1022.748%33%7.7721.31.341.7130.9
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SEMO Offense10%0%000000%0%0
ARST Defense351% (87)52% (125) - - - - .31 (128)3.23 (113)100% (127)7% (115)1.06 (92)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SEMO Defense10%0% - - - - 00%0%0
ARST Offense347% (91)45% (60)39.3153.33.94 (79).04 (98)2.62 (101)60% (103)12% (112)0.96 (67)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SEMO Offense10%0%000000000%0%0%0
ARST Defense348% (50)52% (128) - - - - - - 3 (28).58 (129)1.7 (105)27% (122)36% (117).58 (120)7% (48)2.2 (103)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SEMO Defense10%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
ARST Offense353% (45)38% (103)22.333.72336.910.44 (72)3 (92).14 (105)1.6 (42)28% (47)30% (80).4 (53)6% (96)2.3 (20)

Southeast Missouri State's Power Ratings
Southeast Missouri State's Power Rating: #NR
Southeast Missouri State's Offense Rating: #NR
Southeast Missouri State's Defense Rating: #NR
2025 Talent Rating: #
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #NR
Southeast Missouri State's 2025 Expected Record: -
Southeast Missouri State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: #N/A
Southeast Missouri State's Offense SP+ Rating: #N/A
Southeast Missouri State's Defense SP+ Rating: #N/A

Average Talent
Average OVC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Southeast Missouri State:    Arkansas State: -13

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Southeast Missouri State:    Arkansas State: -10.2




Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -13 #131
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 7.87 #90
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 28.87 #134
2025 Talent Rating: 702.00 #75
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #79
Arkansas State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.4 - 7.6
Arkansas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.2 #104
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.9 #80
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.2 #122

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Southeast Missouri State Scoring
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense on Road: 24
Defense: 42 PPG
Defense on Road: 42

Southeast Missouri State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Arkansas State 34
Southeast Missouri State 27

Total Points: 61

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 34.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 24

Arkansas State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202508/30Arkansas State42Southeast Missouri State24Arkansas StateArkansas State -15.5Arkansas State59.5Over
201809/01Arkansas State48Southeast Missouri State21Arkansas StateArkansas State -32.5Southeast Missouri State56.0Over
200309/13Arkansas State21Southeast Missouri State3Arkansas State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Arkansas State312 Overs
Southeast Missouri State010 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 01 - 11 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 31 - 10 - 01 - 1

(#NR) Southeast Missouri State Info
Power Rating: #NR
Offense Rating: #NR
Defense Rating: #NR
Overall SP+ Rating: #N/A
Offense SP+ Rating: #N/A
Defense SP+ Rating: #N/A
Talent Rating: #
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #NR
Expected Record: -


Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Southeast Missouri State Highlights

Southeast Missouri State Deficiencies
Southeast Missouri State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatARSTSEMO
OverallOver#84—
OffenseOff#81—
DefenseDef#94—
Special TeamsST#70—
PassingPass#63—
RushingRush#81—
Run BlockRBLK#92—
Pass BlockPBLK#38—
Route RunningWR Rt#78—
TacklingTkl#47—
Run DefenseR Def#90—
Pass Rush DefPRush#110—
Coverage DefCov#95—

Rematch from Week 1
Arkansas State -15.5 (59.5)
Arkansas State won vs Southeast Missouri State this year (42-24)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Centennial Bank Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: SEMO | ARST
Depth Chart: SEMO | ARST
Rosters: SEMO | ARST
(#131) Arkansas State Info
Power Rating: -13 #131
Offense Rating: 7.87 #90
Defense Rating: 28.87 #134
Overall SP+ Rating: -10.2 #104
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.9 #80
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.2 #122
Talent Rating: 702.00 #75
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #79
Expected Record: 4.4 - 7.6

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 41%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.65 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 52%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.61 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 52%
Awful Pass Def Success 52%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Record at home: 1 - 1 (2 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

Arkansas State Notes
(8/1) Tempo was top 20 in CFB LY, likely same TY
(8/1) OL 1/5 back. 6 OL portals & some good adds
(8/1) Def added 17 portals, fired most staff LY
(8/1) HC Jones 1+ win each year, but 5-19 on road
(7/13) QB, WR, OC & HC all back. Could jump TY
(7/12) WR Rucker great (1k LY), 5 portal adds
(5/23) Ark St was 7-1 in 1 score games LY, -4 SOW
(3/23) QB Raynor a weapon, fun but must limit TOs
(3/23) RB Cross back, Clay (USM) added, some depth
(3/23) Def was near worst in CFB LY, not much back

Arkansas State Highlights
Arkansas State is Undefeated vs Spread at Home

Arkansas State offense is good on 3rd downs
Arkansas State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Arkansas State Deficiencies
Arkansas State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#109)
Arkansas State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#117)
Arkansas State pass game is really bad (#103)
Arkansas State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Arkansas State has a bad defense (#132)
Arkansas State Does Not Stuff Runs (#119)
Arkansas State has a bad defensive line (#113)
Arkansas State has a bad red zone defense (#110)


  
Southeast Missouri State's OC
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jax Leatherwood599264%642507.0
Patrick Heitert1250%8014.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Payton Brown3413614.014
Brandon Epton Jr.3110513.416
Cole Ruble556011.251
Patrick Heitert61001.710
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam Pedro14189213.555
Donnie Cheers9123113.760
Kalvin Gilbert488122.065
Anthony Westervelt771010.124

View Southeast Missouri State's Full Roster
Southeast Missouri State's DC
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Landon Sylvie121001
Jared Pedraza60010
Amare Townsend60000
Slade Dollar50000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Landon Sylvie121001
Trey Lisle21000
Trel Riley10000
Temidayo Odugbemi10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Landon Sylvie121001
Justus Johnson10001
Trey Lisle21000

Arkansas State's OC Keith Heckendorf
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaylen Raynor669867%692437.1
Josh Flowers1333%7002.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaylen Raynor3513813.921
Kenyon Clay (Tr)4012013.013
Devin Spencer1810415.843
Kameron Thomas83804.823
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chauncy Cobb16216013.545
Corey Rucker6105117.550
Hunter Summers696016.039
Jaylen Bonelli (Tr)895111.934

View Arkansas State's Full Roster
Arkansas State's DC Nate Dreiling
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nigel Nelson210001
Terry Kirksey Jr. (Tr)181100
Brandon Barnes161000
AG McGhee (Tr)161002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ethan Hassler72230
Cody Sigler (Tr)52201
Drew Collins21100
Terry Kirksey Jr. (Tr)181100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trenton Alan Yowe90012
AG McGhee (Tr)161002
Nigel Nelson210001