Southeast Missouri State at Arkansas State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Southeast Missouri State logo Southeast Missouri State Redhawks at Arkansas State Red WolvesArkansas State logo
Saturday, August 30th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Arkansas State -15.5 (59.5) (-750)  Open: -10.5 | 59.5
Arkansas State 42 - Southeast Missouri State: 24

 
Redhawks (0 - 1) (0 - 1 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 24 - 42 (24 - 42 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: -7.5  (SP+ ARST -10)
ARST Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
Red Wolves (7 - 6) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (18 - 31)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (29 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 6.5 (#75)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 9)
 
Southeast Missouri State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Southeast Missouri State at Arkansas State+15.559.5L 24 - 42ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Southeast Missouri State's Schedule
Arkansas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arkansas State vs Southeast Missouri State-15.559.5W 42 - 24OY
Sat 9/6 Arkansas State vs Arkansas+23.562.0L 14 - 56ON
Sat 9/13 Arkansas State vs Iowa State+21.055.5L 16 - 24UY
Sat 9/20 Arkansas State at Kennesaw State-4.557.5L 21 - 28UN
Sat 9/27 Arkansas State at UL Monroe+1.555.5L 16 - 28UN
Sat 10/4 Arkansas State vs Texas State+14.063.5W 31 - 30UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 Arkansas State at South Alabama+8.557.5W 15 - 14UY
Sat 10/25 Arkansas State vs Georgia Southern+1.559.5W 34 - 24UY
Sat 11/1 Arkansas State at Troy+7.552.5W 23 - 10UY
Sat 11/8 Arkansas State vs Southern Miss+6.554.5L 21 - 27UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/20 Arkansas State vs Louisiana-2.554.5L 30 - 34ON
Sat 11/29 Arkansas State at App State+1.054.5W 30 - 29OY
Thu 12/18 Arkansas State vs Missouri State-1.555.5W 34 - 28OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 6, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 6, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SEMO0%240%000%000%420%0%0000
ARST#112 (.09)42% (71)25.240% (102)2.65 (118)12444% (47)2603.31 (110)#89 (.19)43% (90)27.444% (81)43% (93)3.9 (93)57.81.81.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SEMO0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ARST#81 (.17)41% (91)43% (84)3.01 (77)14839% (96)2103.96 (63)#126 (.31)48% (124)51% (131)44% (110)4.62 (127)47.81.31.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SEMO Offense124240%00000000%0%0%0%0%
ARST Defense1327.427.243.4%3.91.3 - - - - - 52%47%44%43%16%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SEMO Defense142420%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
ARST Offense1325.22942%3.311.8223831242603.642%56%40%44%18%.09

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Southeast Missouri State10:000NAN%0%0000000100
Arkansas State1329:3122.239%60%6.357.81.81.36.33.1330.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SEMO Offense10%0%000000%0%0
ARST Defense1352% (96)44% (81) - - - - .12 (80)2.75 (45)69% (50)11% (39)1.01 (92)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SEMO Defense10%0% - - - - 00%0%0
ARST Offense1342% (122)40% (102)34.5123.53.614 (107)-.01 (125)2.65 (118)70% (80)10% (89)0.8 (125)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SEMO Offense10%0%000000000%0%0%0
ARST Defense1347% (44)43% (93) - - - - - - 7 (75).31 (97)1.6 (89)31% (87)32% (99).41 (118)5% (109)2.2 (117)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SEMO Defense10%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
ARST Offense1356% (13)44% (47)25.739.1259.86.710.120 (86)12 (60).21 (86)1.4 (122)30% (47)28% (86).27 (83)8% (125)2.1 (27)

Southeast Missouri State's Power Ratings
Southeast Missouri State's Power Rating: NR
Southeast Missouri State's Offense Rating: NR
Southeast Missouri State's Defense Rating: NR
2025 Talent Rating: NR
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Southeast Missouri State's 2025 Expected Record: -
Southeast Missouri State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Southeast Missouri State's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Southeast Missouri State's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average OVC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Southeast Missouri State:    Arkansas State: -7.31

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Southeast Missouri State:    Arkansas State: -9.8




Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -7.31  #108
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 3.63  #102
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 13.45  #102
2025 Talent Rating: 702.00  #75
Blue Chip Ratio: 2  #79
Arkansas State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.5 - 6.5
Arkansas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.8  #105
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.4  #97
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.2  #104

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Southeast Missouri State Scoring
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense on Road: 24
Defense: 42 PPG
Defense on Road: 42

Southeast Missouri State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Over/Under Record: 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Arkansas State 35
Southeast Missouri State 24

Total Points: 59

Based on Last 4 Games
Arkansas State 35
Southeast Missouri State 23

Total Points: 58

Based on Entire Season
Arkansas State 35
Southeast Missouri State 26

Total Points: 61
Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

Arkansas State's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202508/30Arkansas State42Southeast Missouri State24Arkansas State -15.5Arkansas State59.5Over
201809/01Arkansas State48Southeast Missouri State21Arkansas State -32.5Southeast Missouri State56.0Over
200309/13Arkansas State21Southeast Missouri State3
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Arkansas State312 Overs
Southeast Missouri State010 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 01 - 11 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 31 - 10 - 01 - 1

(#NR) SEMO at (#108) ARST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSEMOARST
Power RatePwrNR #108
SP+SP+NR #105
Perf GradeGradeNR #93
OffenseOffNR #86
DefenseDefNR #94
Spec TeamsSTNR #62
TalentTalNR #75
Blue ChipsBC%NR #79
Arkansas State Notes
(10/14) Won 2 straight games at the buzzer. Raynor clutch
(9/20) Def #'s near bottom of CFB, but vs P4 so far
(9/20) QUIT WATCH? Bad, bad loss at Kennesaw St
(9/20) Run Off 3.3 ypc vs Kennesaw? Down 21-0 early
(8/1) Def could be awful again TY, Off will be fun
(8/1) Tempo was top 20 in CFB LY, likely same TY
(8/1) OL 1/5 back. 6 OL portals & some good adds
(8/1) Def added 17 portals, fired most staff LY
(8/1) HC Jones 1+ win each year, but 5-19 on road
(7/13) QB, WR, OC & HC all back. Could jump TY
(7/12) WR Rucker great (1k LY), 5 portal adds
(5/23) Ark St was 7-1 in 1 score games LY, -4 SOW
Arkansas State Injury Report
Southeast Missouri State on Offense
CategoryCat
SEMO OffARST Def
Perf GradePerfNR #94
SuccessSucNR #90
ExplosiveExpNR #95
PPAPPANR #89
PowerPwrNR #102
SP+SP+NR #104
Pts POPPONR #93
HavocHavNR #70
Southeast Missouri State Run Game
CategoryCat
SEMO OffARST Def
Run GameRunNR #79
Run SuccessRSucNR #81
Run ExplRExpNR #92
PPAExpNR #80
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNR #45
Stuff RateStuffNR #64
TackleTak -  #48
Southeast Missouri State Pass Game
CategoryCat
SEMO OffARST Def
Pass GamePassNR #97
Pass SuccessPSucNR #93
Pass ExplPExlNR #89
PPAExpNR #97
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNR #82
F7 HavocF7NR #39
DB HavocDBNR #109
Arkansas State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatARST OffSEMO Def
Perf GradePerf #86NR
SuccessSuc #71NR
ExplosiveExp #124NR
PPAPPA #112NR
PowerPwr #102NR
SP+SP+ #97NR
Pts POPPO #110NR
HavocHav #111NR
Arkansas State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
ARST OffSEMO Def
Run GameRun #115NR
Run SuccessRSuc #102NR
Run ExplRExp #125NR
PPAExp #125NR
Run BlockR Blk #79 -
OL YdsOLY #118NR
Stuff RateStuff #111NR
TackleTak - NR
Arkansas State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatARST OffSEMO Def
Pass GamePass #78NR
Pass SuccessPSuc #47NR
Pass ExplPExl #122NR
PPAExp #86NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #13NR
F7 HavocF7 #89NR
DB HavocDB #125NR
Program Comparison
ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

SEMO 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Centennial Bank Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 74° - Wind: 9 mph
Rematch from Week 1
Arkansas State -15.5 (59.5)
Arkansas State won vs Southeast Missouri State this year (42-24)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
SEMO's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jax Leatherwood17427763%19691227.1
Johnny Weber10617959%1110856.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Brandon Epton Jr.14053563.880
Cole Ruble7537745.051
Payton Brown5520113.714
Patrick Heitert112302.110
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam Pedro65814412.559
Kalvin Gilbert46653714.265
Donnie Cheers44585513.367
Jobe Bryant18207011.525

View Southeast Missouri State's Full Roster

SEMO's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Landon Sylvie121001
Amare Townsend60000
Jared Pedraza60010
Slade Dollar50000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Landon Sylvie121001
Trey Lisle21000
Temidayo Odugbemi10000
Justus Johnson10001
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Landon Sylvie121001
Justus Johnson10001
Trey Lisle21000

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaylen Raynor33250066%336419116.7
Josh Flowers2633%13112.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Spencer10855935.243
Kenyon Clay (Tr)13952333.830
Jaylen Raynor15442872.842
Josh Flowers96006.716
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Corey Rucker731029414.171
Chauncy Cobb73797110.951
Hunter Summers44505411.543
Tyler Fortenberry (Tr)3229429.228

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Nate Dreiling (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aaron Alexander (Tr)923100
Kyle Taylor841011
AG McGhee (Tr)833015
Brandon Barnes683012
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Demarcus Hendricks5314971
Ethan Hassler5614971
Cody Sigler (Tr)347566
Bryan Whitehead II219402
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cody Sigler (Tr)347566
AG McGhee (Tr)833015
Avante Dickerson (Tr)543004