Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Bowling Green Falcons
Thursday, December 26th 2024 (9:00 PM EST)
Bowling Green -10.5 (54.5) (-380) Open: -6.5
Arkansas State 38 - Bowling Green: 31 (68 Ventures Bowl)
Red Wolves (8 - 5) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (11 - 26)
Avg Score : 26 - 32 (21 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Coach Butch Jones (11 - 26)
Avg Score : 26 - 32 (21 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Bowling Green -6.5 (SP+ BGSU -8)
Projected Score: ARST: 23 - BGSU: 30 (53)
BGSU Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
ARST Travel: 539 miles, 1 hrs behind
Our Line: Bowling Green -6.5 (SP+ BGSU -8)
Projected Score: ARST: 23 - BGSU: 30 (53)
BGSU Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
ARST Travel: 539 miles, 1 hrs behind
Falcons (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Scot Loeffler (20 - 35)
Avg Score : 27 - 22 (24 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Coach Scot Loeffler (20 - 35)
Avg Score : 27 - 22 (24 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
| Arkansas State's 2024 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Sat 8/31 | Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas | -18.5 | |||||
| Sat 9/7 | Arkansas State vs Tulsa | -9.5 | 65.5 | W 28 - 24 | U | N | |
| Sat 9/14 | Arkansas State at Michigan | +22.0 | 47.5 | L 18 - 28 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/21 | Arkansas State at Iowa State | +20.5 | 52.0 | L 7 - 52 | O | N | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Arkansas State vs South Alabama | +2.5 | 62.5 | W 18 - 16 | U | Y | |
| Sat 10/12 | Arkansas State at Texas State | +13.5 | 66.0 | L 9 - 41 | U | N | |
| Sat 10/19 | Arkansas State at Southern Miss | -7.0 | 57.0 | W 44 - 28 | O | Y | |
| Sat 10/26 | Arkansas State vs Troy | -8.5 | 50.0 | W 34 - 31 | O | N | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Arkansas State at Louisiana | +14.0 | 60.0 | L 19 - 55 | O | N | |
| Sat 11/16 | Arkansas State at Georgia State | +2.5 | 60.0 | W 27 - 20 | U | Y | |
| Sat 11/23 | Arkansas State vs UL Monroe | -3.0 | 51.5 | W 28 - 21 | U | Y | |
| Sat 11/30 | Arkansas State vs Old Dominion | +5.5 | 58.5 | L 32 - 40 | O | N | |
| Thu 12/26 | Arkansas State vs Bowling Green | +10.5 | 54.5 | W 38 - 31 | O | Y | |
Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
| Bowling Green's 2024 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Thu 8/29 | Bowling Green vs Fordham | -15.5 | 60.5 | W 41 - 17 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/7 | Bowling Green at Penn State | +35.5 | 51.5 | L 27 - 34 | O | Y | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 9/21 | Bowling Green at Texas A&M | +21.0 | 50.5 | L 20 - 26 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/28 | Bowling Green vs Old Dominion | -11.0 | 51.5 | L 27 - 30 | O | N | |
| Sat 10/5 | Bowling Green at Akron | -17.0 | 48.5 | W 27 - 20 | U | N | |
| Sat 10/12 | Bowling Green vs Northern Illinois | -3.0 | 46.5 | L 7 - 17 | U | N | |
| Sat 10/19 | Bowling Green vs Kent State | -24.0 | 54.5 | W 27 - 6 | U | N | |
| Sat 10/26 | Bowling Green at Toledo | +1.5 | 47.5 | W 41 - 26 | O | Y | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Tue 11/5 | Bowling Green at Central Michigan | -14.5 | 47.5 | W 23 - 13 | U | N | |
| Tue 11/12 | Bowling Green vs Western Michigan | -9.5 | 57.5 | W 31 - 13 | U | Y | |
| Sat 11/23 | Bowling Green at Ball State | -12.5 | 54.5 | W 38 - 13 | U | Y | |
| Fri 11/29 | Bowling Green vs Miami (OH) | -3.0 | 37.5 | L 12 - 28 | O | N | |
| Thu 12/26 | Bowling Green vs Arkansas State | -10.5 | 54.5 | L 31 - 38 | O | N | |
Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Predictions for Bowling Green's Schedule
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Important Stats (2024)
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST | #81 (.17) | 41% (91) | 25.8 | 43% (84) | 3.01 (77) | 148 | 39% (96) | 210 | 3.96 (63) | #126 (.31) | 48% (124) | 32.2 | 51% (131) | 44% (110) | 4.62 (127) | 47.8 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| BGSU | #53 (.21) | 43% (68) | 27.1 | 41% (99) | 3.01 (74) | 134 | 44% (38) | 207 | 3.84 (77) | #43 (.13) | 38% (15) | 21.6 | 39% (29) | 37% (20) | 3.47 (32) | 41.1 | 0.8 | 1 |
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST | #81 (.17) | 41% (91) | 43% (84) | 3.01 (77) | 148 | 39% (96) | 210 | 3.96 (63) | #126 (.31) | 48% (124) | 51% (131) | 44% (110) | 4.62 (127) | 47.8 | 1.3 | 1.4 | ||
| BGSU | #53 (.21) | 43% (68) | 41% (99) | 3.01 (74) | 134 | 44% (38) | 207 | 3.84 (77) | #43 (.13) | 38% (15) | 39% (29) | 37% (20) | 3.47 (32) | 41.1 | 0.8 | 1 |
Overall Stats 2024
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST Offense | 13 | 25.8 | 20.7 | 41% | 3.96 | 1.3 | 20 | 357 | 148 | 210 | 4.3 | 48% | 52% | 43% | 39% | 16% | .17 |
| BGSU Defense | 13 | 21.6 | 18.5 | 37.6% | 3.47 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | 50% | 49% | 39% | 37% | 16% | .13 |
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST Defense | 13 | 32.2 | 37.3 | 48% | 4.62 | 1.4 | - | - | - | - | - | 52% | 48% | 51% | 44% | 15% | .31 |
| BGSU Offense | 13 | 27.1 | 24.2 | 42.6% | 3.84 | 0.8 | 18 | 341 | 134 | 207 | 4.4 | 47% | 53% | 41% | 44% | 18% | .21 |
Additional Stats 2024
| Teams | Games | Possession Time | 1st Downs PG | 3rd Down % | 4th Down % | Penalties PG | Penalty Yds PG | Off TO PG | Def TO PG | TFL PG | Sacks PG | D/ST TDs | Avg Field Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas State | 13 | 26:56 | 20.3 | 40% | 75% | 5.1 | 47.8 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 1 | 27.6 |
| Bowling Green | 13 | 29:21 | 18.2 | 37% | 59% | 4.8 | 41.1 | 0.8 | 1 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 2 | 29.2 |
Run Game Stats (2024)
Pass Game Stats (2024)
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST Offense | 13 | 48% (83) | 43% (84) | 34.8 | 147.8 | 4.3 | 16 (90) | .12 (72) | 3.01 (77) | 73% (71) | 9% (48) | 0.9 (99) |
| BGSU Defense | 13 | 50% (66) | 39% (29) | - | - | - | - | .17 (94) | 3.28 (109) | 80% (113) | 10% (75) | 1.1 (116) |
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST Defense | 13 | 52% (84) | 51% (131) | - | - | - | - | .28 (131) | 3.45 (127) | 73% (65) | 9% (82) | 1.02 (85) |
| BGSU Offense | 13 | 47% (92) | 41% (99) | 30.6 | 133.5 | 4.4 | 20 (67) | .14 (64) | 3.01 (74) | 78% (34) | 12% (118) | 1.08 (30) |
Pass Game Stats (2024)
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST Offense | 13 | 52% (49) | 39% (96) | 19.6 | 31.6 | 209.6 | 6.6 | 10.7 | 17 (79) | 9 (48) | .21 (90) | 1.5 (88) | 31% (67) | 32% (55) | .39 (42) | 8% (115) | 2 (97) |
| BGSU Defense | 13 | 49% (66) | 37% (20) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 11 (52) | .11 (19) | 1.6 (65) | 34% (31) | 24% (3) | .15 (9) | 6% (69) | 2 (46) |
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST Defense | 13 | 48% (52) | 44% (110) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 14 (23) | .35 (115) | 1.7 (103) | 29% (106) | 32% (89) | .51 (125) | 6% (74) | 2.3 (122) |
| BGSU Offense | 13 | 53% (42) | 44% (38) | 18.7 | 28.4 | 207.3 | 7.3 | 11.1 | 16 (87) | 6 (10) | .28 (53) | 1.4 (127) | 32% (86) | 32% (67) | .29 (85) | 5% (53) | 1.8 (128) |
Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -7.76 #91
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 20.48 #62
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 17.18 #124
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #97
Arkansas State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Arkansas State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9 #104
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #87
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.2 #119
Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -7.76 #91
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 20.48 #62
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 17.18 #124
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #97
Arkansas State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Arkansas State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9 #104
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #87
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.2 #119
Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -7.76 Bowling Green: -2.285
SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -9.9 Bowling Green: -1.8
Arkansas State: -7.76 Bowling Green: -2.285
SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: -9.9 Bowling Green: -1.8
Bowling Green's Power Ratings
Bowling Green's Power Rating: -2.285 #73
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: 20.86 #56
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: 7.25 #46
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Bowling Green's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
Bowling Green's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.8 #77
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #79
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #75
Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Bowling Green's Power Rating: -2.285 #73
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: 20.86 #56
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: 7.25 #46
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Bowling Green's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
Bowling Green's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.8 #77
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #79
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #75
Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.7
Defense: 32.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.3
Arkansas State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.7
Defense: 32.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.3
Arkansas State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Bowling Green 30
Arkansas State 23
Total Points: 53
Bowling Green 30
Arkansas State 23
Total Points: 53
Bowling Green Scoring
Offense: 27.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.2
Defense: 21.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.5
Bowling Green's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Offense: 27.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.2
Defense: 21.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.5
Bowling Green's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
| Year | Date | Home | Score | Away | Score | Winner | Spread | Cover | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 12/26 | Bowling Green | 31 | Arkansas State | 38 | Arkansas State | Bowling Green -10.5 | Arkansas State | 54.5 | Over |
| Team | Wins | Covers | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bowling Green | 0 | 0 | 1 Overs |
| Arkansas State | 1 | 1 | 0 Unders |
| Wins | Covers | Favs | Dogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Teams | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 | 0 - 1 | 0 - 0 |
| Road Teams | 1 - 0 | 1 - 0 | 0 - 0 | 1 - 0 |
| Arkansas State Recent Bowl History | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Bowl | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result |
| 2024 | Ventures Bowl | Arkansas State vs Bowling Green | +10.5 | 54.5 | W 38 - 31 |
| 2023 | Camellia Bowl | Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois | -2.5 | 54.0 | L 19 - 21 |
| 2019 | Camellia Bowl | Arkansas State vs Florida International | +1.5 | 60.0 | W 34 - 26 |
| 2018 | N/A | Arkansas State vs Nevada | +1.5 | 56.5 | L 13 - 16 |
| Bowling Green Recent Bowl History | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Bowl | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result |
| 2024 | Ventures Bowl | Bowling Green vs Arkansas State | -10.5 | 54.5 | L 31 - 38 |
| 2023 | Lane Bowl | Bowling Green vs Minnesota | +2.5 | 45.0 | L 24 - 30 |
| 2022 | Lane Bowl | Bowling Green vs New Mexico State | -3.0 | 51.0 | L 19 - 24 |
(#91) Arkansas State Info
Power Rating: -7.76 #91
Offense Rating: 20.48 #62
Defense Rating: 17.18 #124
Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9 #104
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #87
Defense SP+ Rating: 35.2 #119
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #97
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 3.96 PPO
Bad Run Success 43%
Poor Pass Success 39%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 48%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.62 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 51%
Poor Pass Def Success 44%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position
Arkansas State has played in 3 Bowls in the last 5 years (2 - 1)
Arkansas State has played in 12 Bowls since 2000 (5 - 7)
Arkansas State Notes
(10/27) Worst Def in CFB? Near L to Troy? Raynor great
(10/26) Off improving, will be a threat to win out
(10/12) Killed by Tex St, gave up 600 yds, 2 TO's
(10/12) QB Raynor torched S Al, Def enough 4 upset W
(9/1) Lines beaten badly vs C Ark, RG 140 (3.3) vs 235 (7.3)
(7/30) Vet. staff saved themselves LY to bowl game
(7/30) Def was poor LY, took a lot of P4 portals
(7/30) Off was meh LY but returns nearly everyone
(7/30) QB Raynor was SBC ROY in 23. JAG+ with legs
(7/30) OL has 4/5 back, RBs good, WR good
Arkansas State Highlights
Arkansas State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)
Arkansas State Deficiencies
Arkansas State has a really bad Offense Away from Home
Arkansas State offense is not Explosive (#62)
Arkansas State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Arkansas State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points Away from home
Arkansas State does not Sack the QB (#80)
Arkansas State has a bad defense (#132)
Arkansas State has a bad defensive line (#113)
Arkansas State has a bad red zone defense (#110)
Power Rating: -7.76 #91
Offense Rating: 20.48 #62
Defense Rating: 17.18 #124
Overall SP+ Rating: -9.9 #104
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #87
Defense SP+ Rating: 35.2 #119
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #97
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 3.96 PPO
Bad Run Success 43%
Poor Pass Success 39%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 48%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.62 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 51%
Poor Pass Def Success 44%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position
Arkansas State has played in 3 Bowls in the last 5 years (2 - 1)
Arkansas State has played in 12 Bowls since 2000 (5 - 7)
Arkansas State Notes
(10/27) Worst Def in CFB? Near L to Troy? Raynor great
(10/26) Off improving, will be a threat to win out
(10/12) Killed by Tex St, gave up 600 yds, 2 TO's
(10/12) QB Raynor torched S Al, Def enough 4 upset W
(9/1) Lines beaten badly vs C Ark, RG 140 (3.3) vs 235 (7.3)
(7/30) Vet. staff saved themselves LY to bowl game
(7/30) Def was poor LY, took a lot of P4 portals
(7/30) Off was meh LY but returns nearly everyone
(7/30) QB Raynor was SBC ROY in 23. JAG+ with legs
(7/30) OL has 4/5 back, RBs good, WR good
Arkansas State Highlights
Arkansas State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)
Arkansas State Deficiencies
Arkansas State has a really bad Offense Away from Home
Arkansas State offense is not Explosive (#62)
Arkansas State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Arkansas State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points Away from home
Arkansas State does not Sack the QB (#80)
Arkansas State has a bad defense (#132)
Arkansas State has a bad defensive line (#113)
Arkansas State has a bad red zone defense (#110)
| Performance GradesPerf Grades | ||
|---|---|---|
| CategoryCat | BGSU | ARST |
| OverallOver | #26 | #73 |
| OffenseOff | #40 | #67 |
| DefenseDef | #22 | #100 |
| Special TeamsST | #16 | #64 |
| PassingPass | #29 | #37 |
| RushingRush | #34 | #71 |
| Run BlockRBLK | #70 | #23 |
| Pass BlockPBLK | #62 | #97 |
| Route RunningWR Rt | #17 | #74 |
| TacklingTkl | #33 | #112 |
| Run DefenseR Def | #63 | #99 |
| Pass Rush DefPRush | #34 | #67 |
| Coverage DefCov | #14 | #98 |
Rematch from Week 1
Bowling Green -10.5 (54.5)
Arkansas State won at Bowling Green this year (38-31)
Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat Bowling Green last year (38-31)
Weather Forecast
Playing in Hancock Whitney Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Team Information
Injuries: ARST | BGSU
Depth Chart: ARST | BGSU
Rosters: ARST | BGSU
(#73) Bowling Green Info
Power Rating: -2.285 #73
Offense Rating: 20.86 #56
Defense Rating: 7.25 #46
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.8 #77
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #79
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #75
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 43%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.84 PPO
Poor Run Success 41%
Good Pass Success 44%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 38%
Good in Scoring Position 3.47 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Great Pass Def Success 37%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position
Bowling Green has played in 3 Bowls in the last 5 years (0 - 3)
Bowling Green has played in 11 Bowls since 2000 (3 - 8)
Bowling Green Notes
(11/13) Off better, Rgame good 220+, 7.4 ypc in WMU W
(11/8) Off OK vs CMU, Rgame 181, 5.2 ypc. Def great TW
(10/20) Bazelak torched Kent St, Rgame was really bad
(10/14) QB Bazelak hurt vs N. Illinois (day to day)
(10/14) Backup QB Lucian A. cannot throw the ball
(10/13) Scored open TD and 0 after in 17-7 L (N Ill)
(9/28) Bazelak 300 yds in W over ODU, Rgame really bad
(9/26) Great fight w/ A&M. Off is good, Def is underrated
(9/8) Nearly upset PSU, QB Bazelak/WR Fannin v good
(8/6) 14 starters back w/ momentum. MAC sleeper
Bowling Green Highlights
Bowling Green has a really good defense (#29)
Bowling Green has a good run defense (#11)
Bowling Green has a good pass defense (#58)
Bowling Green has a great TO Margin (#1)
Bowling Green commits very few Penalties (#95)
Bowling Green Deficiencies
Bowling Green Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#56)
Bowling Green Does Not Stuff Runs (#30)
Bowling Green has a bad defensive line (#31)
Power Rating: -2.285 #73
Offense Rating: 20.86 #56
Defense Rating: 7.25 #46
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.8 #77
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #79
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #75
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 43%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.84 PPO
Poor Run Success 41%
Good Pass Success 44%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 38%
Good in Scoring Position 3.47 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Great Pass Def Success 37%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position
Bowling Green has played in 3 Bowls in the last 5 years (0 - 3)
Bowling Green has played in 11 Bowls since 2000 (3 - 8)
Bowling Green Notes
(11/13) Off better, Rgame good 220+, 7.4 ypc in WMU W
(11/8) Off OK vs CMU, Rgame 181, 5.2 ypc. Def great TW
(10/20) Bazelak torched Kent St, Rgame was really bad
(10/14) QB Bazelak hurt vs N. Illinois (day to day)
(10/14) Backup QB Lucian A. cannot throw the ball
(10/13) Scored open TD and 0 after in 17-7 L (N Ill)
(9/28) Bazelak 300 yds in W over ODU, Rgame really bad
(9/26) Great fight w/ A&M. Off is good, Def is underrated
(9/8) Nearly upset PSU, QB Bazelak/WR Fannin v good
(8/6) 14 starters back w/ momentum. MAC sleeper
Bowling Green Highlights
Bowling Green has a really good defense (#29)
Bowling Green has a good run defense (#11)
Bowling Green has a good pass defense (#58)
Bowling Green has a great TO Margin (#1)
Bowling Green commits very few Penalties (#95)
Bowling Green Deficiencies
Bowling Green Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#56)
Bowling Green Does Not Stuff Runs (#30)
Bowling Green has a bad defensive line (#31)
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Raynor | 259 | 420 | 62% | 2783 | 16 | 10 | 6.6 |
| Timmy McClain (Tr) | 14 | 21 | 67% | 163 | 3 | 0 | 7.8 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Wallace | 154 | 721 | 11 | 4.7 | 57 |
| Ja'Quez Cross | 115 | 638 | 2 | 5.5 | 49 |
| Jaylen Raynor | 137 | 387 | 3 | 2.8 | 40 |
| Devin Spencer | 40 | 206 | 0 | 5.2 | 23 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Rucker | 69 | 1053 | 7 | 15.3 | 79 |
| Courtney Jackson | 42 | 494 | 2 | 11.8 | 44 |
| Reagan Ealy | 23 | 262 | 0 | 11.4 | 22 |
| Adam Jones | 21 | 255 | 3 | 12.1 | 46 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Ham II (Tr) | 98 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Justin Parks | 96 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| Charles Willekes | 92 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Trevian Thomas | 79 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Jones | 25 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Bryan Whitehead II | 24 | 11 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Ian Jeffries | 21 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Noah Collins (Tr) | 26 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dontay Joyner | 50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| Websley Etienne | 56 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Jordan Mahoney (Tr) | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Bazelak | 269 | 402 | 67% | 3044 | 18 | 5 | 7.6 |
| Lucian Anderson III | 5 | 12 | 42% | 32 | 1 | 1 | 2.7 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terion Stewart | 166 | 898 | 6 | 5.4 | 73 |
| Jaison Patterson | 99 | 426 | 5 | 4.3 | 41 |
| Jamal Johnson | 26 | 188 | 1 | 7.2 | 41 |
| Rahkeem Smith | 20 | 128 | 3 | 6.4 | 40 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harold Fannin | 117 | 1550 | 10 | 13.2 | 65 |
| Malcolm Johnson Jr. (Tr) | 49 | 573 | 3 | 11.7 | 50 |
| Rahkeem Smith | 25 | 349 | 3 | 14.0 | 66 |
| Jamal Johnson | 31 | 229 | 1 | 7.4 | 36 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Horne | 81 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Joseph Sipp Jr. | 79 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 2 |
| CJ Brown (Tr) | 73 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Charles Rosser | 62 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Sipp Jr. | 79 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 2 |
| Charles Rosser | 62 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Anthony Hawkins | 46 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Ali Saad | 40 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Oladokun | 35 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Ja'Corey Benjamin | 26 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Todd Bumphis (Tr) | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |