Middle Tennessee at Arkansas State - 2017 Matchup Preview

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Arkansas State Red Wolves

Saturday, December 16th 2017 (8:00 PM EST)
Arkansas State -3.5 (61.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Middle Tennessee 35 - Arkansas State: 30 (RAYCOM MEDIA CAMELLIA BOWL)

Blue Raiders (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 22 - 31 (21 - 29 on Road)
'17 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: -3 (SP+ ARST -6)
Projected Score: MTSU: 25 - ARST: 29 (54)
ARST Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
MTSU Travel: 240 miles

Red Wolves (7 - 5) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (29 - 27 @ Home)
'17 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
MTSU Players
ARST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Middle Tennessee's 2017 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Middle Tennessee vs Vanderbilt	+2.5	58.0	L 6 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/9	Middle Tennessee at Syracuse	+7.5	73.0	W 30 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Middle Tennessee at Minnesota	+13.5	49.5	L 3 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/23	Middle Tennessee vs Bowling Green	-7.0	54.0	W 24 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Middle Tennessee at Florida Atlantic	+2.5	60.0	L 20 - 38	U	N
Sat 10/7	Middle Tennessee vs Florida International	-9.0	53.5	W 37 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Middle Tennessee at UAB	-4.5	55.0	L 23 - 25	U	N
Fri 10/20	Middle Tennessee vs Marshall	+1.5	49.0	L 10 - 38	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Middle Tennessee vs UTEP	-20.0	50.0	W 30 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Middle Tennessee at Charlotte	-15.5	49.5	W 35 - 21	O	N
Fri 11/17	Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky	-1.0	56.0	L 38 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/25	Middle Tennessee vs Old Dominion	-13.0	51.5	W 41 - 10	U	Y
Sat 12/16	Middle Tennessee vs Arkansas State	+3.5	61.0	W 35 - 30	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Middle Tennessee's Schedule

Arkansas State's 2017 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Arkansas State at Nebraska	+14.5	50.5	L 36 - 43	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/16	Arkansas State vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff	-55.0
Sat 9/23	Arkansas State at SMU	+3.0	72.0	L 21 - 44	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/4	Arkansas State at Georgia Southern	-9.0	54.5	W 43 - 25	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina	-16.5	63.0	W 51 - 17	O	Y
Thu 10/19	Arkansas State vs Louisiana	-12.0	66.5	W 47 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Arkansas State at New Mexico State	-3.5	71.0	W 37 - 21	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/11	Arkansas State at South Alabama	-12.5	55.5	L 19 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/18	Arkansas State vs Texas State	-26.5	58.5	W 30 - 12	U	N
Sat 11/25	Arkansas State at UL Monroe	-8.5	69.0	W 67 - 50	O	Y
Sat 12/2	Arkansas State vs Troy	-1.0	60.0	L 25 - 32	U	N
Sat 12/16	Arkansas State vs Middle Tennessee	-3.5	61.0	L 30 - 35	O	N

Important Stats (2016)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MTSU	.34	47%	22.4	49%	3.37	192	44%	326	4.02	.18	46%	30.9	50%	41%	4.49	56.2	1.6	1.5
ARST	.09	39%	25.2	39%	2.31	137	38%	242	3.04	.02	36%	27.4	36%	33%	2.99	64.2	1.3	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MTSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2016

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MTSU Offense	13	22.4	20.8	47.2%	4.02	1.6	25	518	192	326	6	40%	58%	49%	44%	15%	.34
ARST Defense	13	27.4	27.2	36.1%	2.99	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	49%	49%	36%	33%	22%	.02

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MTSU Defense	13	30.9	29.3	46.1%	4.49	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	50%	41%	16%	.18
ARST Offense	13	25.2	29	39.2%	3.04	1.3	19	379	137	242	3.5	52%	46%	39%	38%	19%	.09

Additional Stats 2016

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Middle Tennessee	13	28:07	24.8	45%	29%	6	56.2	1.6	1.5	4.9	2.2	2	30.2
Arkansas State	13	29:01	18.6	29%	58%	8.2	64.2	1.3	1.6	10.2	3.3	3	29.3

Run Game Stats (2017)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MTSU Offense	13	40%	49%	32.1	191.8	6	26	.27	3.37	72%	8%	1.08
ARST Defense	13	49%	36%	-	-	-	-	-.05	2.5	63%	16%	0.78

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MTSU Defense	13	52%	50%	-	-	-	-	.22	3.18	76%	8%	0.93
ARST Offense	13	52%	39%	39.8	137.2	3.5	19	-.04	2.31	67%	13%	0.88

Pass Game Stats (2017)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MTSU Offense	13	58%	44%	26.8	42.8	325.8	7.6	12.1	39	15	.41	1.7	32%	38%	.53	7%	2.1
ARST Defense	13	49%	33%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.11	1.7	38%	30%	.26	6%	1.8

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MTSU Defense	13	47%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.16	1.5	28%	30%	.21	8%	1.9
ARST Offense	13	46%	38%	17.8	30.9	242.2	7.8	13.6	21	9	.28	1.8	36%	30%	.25	6%	2

Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: NR
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: NR
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: NR
2017 Talent Rating: #101
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Middle Tennessee's 2017 Expected Record: -
Middle Tennessee's 2017 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.9 #88
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.2 #110
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.8 #62

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: Arkansas State: 0.75

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -4.9 Arkansas State: 1.5

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: 0.75 NR
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: NR
2017 Talent Rating: #79
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Arkansas State's 2017 Expected Record: -
Arkansas State's 2017 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.5 #66
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #56
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #74

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 22.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.8
Defense: 30.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.3

Middle Tennessee's 2017 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Arkansas State 29
Middle Tennessee 25

Projected Total Points: 54

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

Arkansas State's 2017 Record
Record: 7 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2017	12/16	Arkansas State	30	Middle Tennessee	35	Arkansas State -3.5	Middle Tennessee	61.0	Over
2012	12/01	Arkansas State	45	Middle Tennessee	0
2011	11/19	Middle Tennessee	19	Arkansas State	45
2010	11/02	Arkansas State	51	Middle Tennessee	24
2009	11/21	Middle Tennessee	38	Arkansas State	14
2008	09/20	Arkansas State	31	Middle Tennessee	14
2007	10/20	Middle Tennessee	24	Arkansas State	7
2006	11/11	Arkansas State	10	Middle Tennessee	38
2005	11/05	Middle Tennessee	45	Arkansas State	7
2004	10/09	Middle Tennessee	45	Arkansas State	17
2003	11/20	Arkansas State	14	Middle Tennessee	24
2002	10/05	Arkansas State	13	Middle Tennessee	7
2001	11/03	Middle Tennessee	54	Arkansas State	6

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arkansas State	5	0	1 Overs
Middle Tennessee	8	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 4	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	4 - 9	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

Middle Tennessee Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2017	Camellia Bowl	Middle Tennessee vs Arkansas State	+3.5	61.0	W 35 - 30
2016	I Bowl	Middle Tennessee vs Hawai'i	-4.5	70.0	L 35 - 52
2015	Bahamas Bowl	Middle Tennessee vs Western Michigan	+3.0		L 31 - 45
2013	Forces Bowl	Middle Tennessee vs Navy	+7.0	57.5	L 6 - 24

Arkansas State Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2017	Camellia Bowl	Arkansas State vs Middle Tennessee	-3.5	61.0	L 30 - 35
2016	Cure Bowl	Arkansas State vs UCF	-6.5	51.0	W 31 - 13
2015	Orleans Bowl	Arkansas State vs Louisiana Tech	-1.0		L 28 - 47
2014	Godaddy Bowl	Arkansas State vs Toledo	+3.5	70.5	L 44 - 63
2013	Godaddy Bowl	Arkansas State vs Ball State	+6.5	65.0	W 23 - 20
2012	Com Bowl	Arkansas State vs Kent State			W 17 - 13
2011	Com Bowl	Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois			L 20 - 38

(#) MTSU at (#) ARST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MTSU	ARST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#88	#66
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#101	#79
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Middle Tennessee Injury Report

Arkansas State Injury Report

Middle Tennessee on Offense


CategoryCat	MTSU Off	ARST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#110	#74
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Middle Tennessee Run Game


CategoryCat	MTSU Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Middle Tennessee Pass Game


CategoryCat	MTSU Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Arkansas State on Offense


CategoryCat	ARST Off	MTSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#56	#62
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Arkansas State Run Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	MTSU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Arkansas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	MTSU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ARST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'17 Profile: Down to Top G5

MTSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'17 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Cramton Bowl
Conditions:
Temp: 41°

Rematch from Week 1
Arkansas State -3.5 (61.0)
Middle Tennessee won at Arkansas State this year (35-30)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

MTSU's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster

MTSU's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

ARST's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD