Iowa State at Arkansas State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Iowa State logo (#14)Iowa State Cyclones at Arkansas State Red WolvesArkansas State logo
Saturday, September 13th 2025 (4:00 PM EDT)
Iowa State -21 (55.5) (-1450)  Open: 0.0
Iowa State 24 - Arkansas State: 16

 
Cyclones (6 - 4) (4 - 5 - 1)
Coach Matt Campbell (63 - 51)
Avg Score : 27 - 22 (23 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 5 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 4) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
Temp: 94.6° (36% Hum)
Our Line: Iowa State -18.5  (SP+ ISU -19)

Projected Score: ISU: 35 - ARST: 17 (52)
ISU Win prob: 92% | Cover: 53%
ISU Travel: 455 miles
Red Wolves (5 - 5) (7 - 3 - 0)
Coach Butch Jones (18 - 31)
Avg Score : 23 - 27 (29 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.3 - 5.7 (#71)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 9)
 
Iowa State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Iowa State vs Kansas State+2.551.5W 24 - 21UY
Sat 8/30 Iowa State vs South Dakota-16.547.5W 55 - 7OY
Sat 9/6 Iowa State vs Iowa-3.043.0W 16 - 13UN
Sat 9/13 Iowa State at Arkansas State-21.055.5W 24 - 16UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Iowa State vs Arizona-4.048.5W 39 - 14OY
Sat 10/4 Iowa State at Cincinnati+1.555.5L 30 - 38ON
Sat 10/11 Iowa State at Colorado-3.052.5L 17 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Iowa State vs BYU-2.548.5L 27 - 41ON
Sat 11/1 Iowa State vs Arizona State-7.548.5L 19 - 24UN
Sat 11/8 Iowa State at TCU+7.558.5W 20 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Iowa State vs Kansas-4
Sat 11/29 Iowa State at Oklahoma State-22.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Iowa State's Schedule
Arkansas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arkansas State vs Southeast Missouri State-15.559.5W 42 - 24OY
Sat 9/6 Arkansas State vs Arkansas+23.562.0L 14 - 56ON
Sat 9/13 Arkansas State vs Iowa State+21.055.5L 16 - 24UY
Sat 9/20 Arkansas State at Kennesaw State-4.557.5L 21 - 28UN
Sat 9/27 Arkansas State at UL Monroe+1.555.5L 16 - 28UN
Sat 10/4 Arkansas State vs Texas State+14.063.5W 31 - 30UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 Arkansas State at South Alabama+8.557.5W 15 - 14UY
Sat 10/25 Arkansas State vs Georgia Southern+1.559.5W 34 - 24UY
Sat 11/1 Arkansas State at Troy+7.552.5W 23 - 10UY
Sat 11/8 Arkansas State vs Southern Miss+6.554.5L 21 - 27UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/20 Arkansas State vs Louisiana-2.5
Sat 11/29 Arkansas State at App State+5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 5, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 5, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ISU#61 (.19)45% (46)27.145% (55)3 (45)14845% (43)2193.63 (93)#43 (.11)39% (31)21.541% (59)37% (25)3.09 (20)32.71.11.2
ARST#109 (.09)42% (84)23.340% (97)2.37 (114)11942% (69)2133.32 (110)#91 (.18)44% (106)26.544% (95)44% (102)4.24 (110)57.71.21.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ISU#62 (.2)40% (99)40% (106)2.83 (102)15041% (77)2364.23 (37)#79 (.18)43% (81)46% (101)38% (41)3.44 (29)25.91.11.5
ARST#81 (.17)41% (91)43% (84)3.01 (77)14839% (96)2103.96 (63)#126 (.31)48% (124)51% (131)44% (110)4.62 (127)47.81.31.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ISU Offense1027.122.844.6%3.631.1203671482194.450%49%45%45%14%.19
ARST Defense1026.525.844.4%4.241.1 - - - - - 54%45%44%44%14%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ISU Defense1021.523.838.7%3.091.2 - - - - - 50%49%41%37%15%.11
ARST Offense1023.328.841.5%3.321.2203331192133.743%56%40%42%18%.09

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Iowa State1027:5619.638%61%432.71.11.24.41030.2
Arkansas State1027:3619.740%60%6.557.71.21.14.72.2229.8
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ISU Offense1050% (67)45% (55)33.9147.74.419 (30).14 (54)3 (45)67% (96)8% (26)0.92 (85)
ARST Defense1054% (110)44% (95) - - - - .14 (104)2.68 (62)73% (75)9% (85)1.02 (96)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ISU Defense1050% (73)41% (59) - - - - .09 (72)2.94 (94)67% (41)9% (90)0.95 (63)
ARST Offense1043% (115)40% (97)32119.33.711 (107)-.03 (128)2.37 (114)67% (96)12% (116)0.82 (125)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ISU Offense1049% (70)45% (43)17.428.1219.27.812.611 (86)7 (20).26 (68)1.5 (81)30% (45)28% (94).1 (128)7% (92)2 (65)
ARST Defense1045% (25)44% (102) - - - - - - 5 (75).24 (76)1.5 (56)30% (93)33% (111).43 (119)5% (118)2.2 (119)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ISU Defense1049% (62)37% (25) - - - - - - 7 (38).2 (58)1.7 (125)33% (51)28% (53).24 (56)6% (55)1.8 (21)
ARST Offense1056% (21)42% (69)22.233.4213.36.49.611 (86)6 (60).19 (91)1.4 (108)31% (66)31% (62).31 (75)7% (96)2.1 (49)

Iowa State's Power Ratings
Iowa State's Power Rating: 11.23  #42
Iowa State's Offense Rating: 14.48  #44
Iowa State's Defense Rating: 3.25  #42
2025 Talent Rating: 750.00  #66
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #65
Iowa State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.0 - 5.0
Iowa State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.0  #41
Iowa State's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.1  #55
Iowa State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.2  #34

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Iowa State: 11.23   Arkansas State: -8.135

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Iowa State: 9.0   Arkansas State: -10.2




Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: -8.135  #116
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: 4.13  #100
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: 15.20  #113
2025 Talent Rating: 702.00  #75
Blue Chip Ratio: 2  #79
Arkansas State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.3 - 5.7
Arkansas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.2  #107
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.9  #104
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.1  #104

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Iowa State Scoring
Offense: 27.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.8
Defense: 21.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.8

Iowa State's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 4
Record vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 1
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Iowa State 35
Arkansas State 17


Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
Iowa State 23
Arkansas State 21

Total Points: 44

Based on Entire Season
Iowa State 26
Arkansas State 24

Total Points: 50
Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 23.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.8
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.8

Arkansas State's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 3 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/13Arkansas State16Iowa State24Iowa State -21Arkansas State55.5Under
202409/21Iowa State52Arkansas State7Iowa State -20.5Iowa State52.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Arkansas State011 Overs
Iowa State211 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 12 - 01 - 01 - 0
Road Teams1 - 10 - 20 - 10 - 1

(#42) ISU at (#116) ARST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatISUARST
Power RatePwr #42 #116
SP+SP+ #41 #107
Perf GradeGrade #78 #94
OffenseOff #50 #81
DefenseDef #115 #112
Spec TeamsST #67 #87
TalentTal #66 #75
Blue ChipsBC% #65 #79
Iowa State Notes
(10/25) DT D Orange will play vs BYU, big add
(10/4) Def torched by Cincy, Becht was tough but Def sucks
(10/3) CB2 J. Cooper out for the season (knee). Down top 2
(10/1) CB1 J Williams out for the season (ACL) - big loss
(10/1) Backup kicker J Gilbert also hurt, Fr kicking now
(9/26) Kicker K. Konrardy is hurt, Fr C. Smith kicking
(9/15) Keep winning 1 score games, Run Succ ?
(8/30) Run game improved, Becht a tough gamer
(7/30) Fewest portal adds in Big 12 (8), good sign
(5/23) ISU was 5-1 in 1 score games LY
(4/4) CB Jontez Williams a top 10 CB via PFF
(4/4) DT D. Orange a top 10 DT via PFF
Iowa State Injury Report
Arkansas State Notes
(10/14) Won 2 straight games at the buzzer. Raynor clutch
(9/20) Def #'s near bottom of CFB, but vs P4 so far
(9/20) QUIT WATCH? Bad, bad loss at Kennesaw St
(9/20) Run Off 3.3 ypc vs Kennesaw? Down 21-0 early
(8/1) Def could be awful again TY, Off will be fun
(8/1) Tempo was top 20 in CFB LY, likely same TY
(8/1) OL 1/5 back. 6 OL portals & some good adds
(8/1) Def added 17 portals, fired most staff LY
(8/1) HC Jones 1+ win each year, but 5-19 on road
(7/13) QB, WR, OC & HC all back. Could jump TY
(7/12) WR Rucker great (1k LY), 5 portal adds
(5/23) Ark St was 7-1 in 1 score games LY, -4 SOW
Arkansas State Injury Report
Iowa State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ISU OffARST Def
Perf GradePerf #50 #112
SuccessSuc #46 #106
ExplosiveExp #98 #75
PPAPPA #61 #91
PowerPwr #44 #113
SP+SP+ #55 #104
Pts POPPO #93 #110
HavocHav #54 #111
Iowa State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ISU OffARST Def
Run GameRun #67 #105
Run SuccessRSuc #55 #95
Run ExplRExp #85 #96
PPAExp #54 #104
Run BlockR Blk #44 -
OL YdsOLY #45 #62
Stuff RateStuff #58 #57
TackleTak -  #94
Iowa State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ISU OffARST Def
Pass GamePass #38 #87
Pass SuccessPSuc #43 #102
Pass ExplPExl #81 #56
PPAExp #68 #76
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #82 #102
F7 HavocF7 #26 #85
DB HavocDB #92 #118
Arkansas State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatARST OffISU Def
Perf GradePerf #81 #115
SuccessSuc #84 #31
ExplosiveExp #115 #102
PPAPPA #109 #43
PowerPwr #100 #42
SP+SP+ #104 #34
Pts POPPO #110 #20
HavocHav #119 #80
Arkansas State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
ARST OffISU Def
Run GameRun #88 #112
Run SuccessRSuc #97 #59
Run ExplRExp #125 #63
PPAExp #128 #72
Run BlockR Blk #84 -
OL YdsOLY #114 #94
Stuff RateStuff #106 #60
TackleTak -  #127
Arkansas State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatARST OffISU Def
Pass GamePass #93 #81
Pass SuccessPSuc #69 #25
Pass ExplPExl #108 #125
PPAExp #91 #58
Pass Block/RushP Blk #9 #128
F7 HavocF7 #116 #90
DB HavocDB #96 #55
Program Comparison
ARST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

ISU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Centennial Bank Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 95° - Wind: 7 mph
Rematch from Week 3
Iowa State 21.0 (55.5)
Iowa State won at Arkansas State this year (24-16)

Previous Matchups
Iowa State beat Arkansas State last year (52-7)

  
ISU's OC Taylor Mouser (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Rocco Becht17829760%22301297.5
Alex Manske4580%28005.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Carson Hansen14172155.165
Abu Sama III11058845.344
Dylan Lee2112215.828
Rocco Becht758381.125
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Brett Eskildsen23434318.975
Benjamin Brahmer33388511.827
Chase Sowell (Tr)26386114.852
Gabe Burkle26302111.644

View Iowa State's Full Roster

ISU's DC Jon Heacock (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marcus Neal709123
Kooper Ebel625141
Caleb Bacon557033
Jamison Patton491003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Will McLaughlin132201
Tamatoa McDonough (Tr)254240
Marcus Neal709123
Jace J. Gilbert173110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ta'Shawn James330005
Quentin Taylor Jr.232004
Marcus Neal709123

ARST's OC Keith Heckendorf (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaylen Raynor25837968%245713106.5
Josh Flowers2633%13112.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Spencer8142815.343
Kenyon Clay (Tr)10940523.730
Jaylen Raynor12435972.942
Josh Flowers96006.716
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Corey Rucker49653113.355
Chauncy Cobb63634010.151
Hunter Summers35403411.543
Tyler Fortenberry (Tr)2418017.520

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC Nate Dreiling (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aaron Alexander (Tr)643100
Kyle Taylor581000
AG McGhee (Tr)583004
Brandon Greil513101
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ethan Hassler399651
Demarcus Hendricks387541
Cody Sigler (Tr)193334
Drew Collins43310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Avante Dickerson (Tr)391004
AG McGhee (Tr)583004
Cody Sigler (Tr)193334