North Carolina Team Profile

North Carolina Tar Heels (@UNCFootball)
Bill Belichick (1st year) (4-8) #1
Record: 4 - 8 (2 - 6) | Proj: 4 - 8 (#) | SOS: (#73)
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Overview
Schedule
Stats
Roster
Notes
Records
Recruiting
Bowls

North Carolina's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Mon 9/1	North Carolina vs TCU	+3.0	59.5	L 14 - 48	O	N
Sat 9/6	North Carolina at Charlotte	-16.5	49.5	W 20 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/13	North Carolina vs Richmond	-24.5	47.5	W 41 - 6	U	Y
Sat 9/20	North Carolina at UCF	+7.0	46.5	L 9 - 34	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	North Carolina vs Clemson	+15.5	47.5	L 10 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17	North Carolina at California	+7.5	45.5	L 18 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/25	North Carolina vs Virginia	+12.5	51.5	L 16 - 17	U	Y
Fri 10/31	North Carolina at Syracuse	+1.5	45.5	W 27 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/8	North Carolina vs Stanford	-8.5	41.5	W 20 - 15	U	N
Sat 11/15	North Carolina at Wake Forest	+3.5	37.5	L 12 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/22	North Carolina vs Duke	+6.5	50.5	L 25 - 32	O	N
Sat 11/29	North Carolina at NC State	+7.0	48.5	L 19 - 42	O	N

Record Prediction: 4 - 8 NR
Schedule Rating: #73
Future 2027 Schedule

North Carolina's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Mon 9/1	North Carolina vs TCU	+3.0	59.5	L 14 - 48	O	N
Sat 9/6	North Carolina at Charlotte	-16.5	49.5	W 20 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/13	North Carolina vs Richmond	-24.5	47.5	W 41 - 6	U	Y
Sat 9/20	North Carolina at UCF	+7.0	46.5	L 9 - 34	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	North Carolina vs Clemson	+15.5	47.5	L 10 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17	North Carolina at California	+7.5	45.5	L 18 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/25	North Carolina vs Virginia	+12.5	51.5	L 16 - 17	U	Y
Fri 10/31	North Carolina at Syracuse	+1.5	45.5	W 27 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/8	North Carolina vs Stanford	-8.5	41.5	W 20 - 15	U	N
Sat 11/15	North Carolina at Wake Forest	+3.5	37.5	L 12 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/22	North Carolina vs Duke	+6.5	50.5	L 25 - 32	O	N
Sat 11/29	North Carolina at NC State	+7.0	48.5	L 19 - 42	O	N

2024 Schedule Rating: #69
2025 Record: 4 - 8 (ACC: 2 - 6)
Spread Record 5 - 7 - 0 | O/U 5 - 7

Opponents: Elite, Good, Avg, Bad, Poor

Reg Season Opponents: 0 Elite, 3 Good, 3 Avg, 2 Bad, 3 Poor

Show Past Schedules

North Carolina's 2024 Schedule
Thu 8/29	North Carolina at Minnesota	-2.0	52.5	W 19 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/7	North Carolina vs Charlotte	-21.5	47.5	W 38 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/14	North Carolina vs North Carolina Central	-37.5	57.5	W 45 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/21	North Carolina vs James Madison	-10.0	48.0	L 50 - 70	O	N
Sat 9/28	North Carolina at Duke	-1.0	55.5	L 20 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/5	North Carolina vs Pittsburgh	+2.5	63.0	L 24 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/12	North Carolina vs Georgia Tech	+3.5	60.5	L 34 - 41	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	North Carolina at Virginia	+3.5	58.5	W 41 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/2	North Carolina at Florida State	-2.5	50.5	W 35 - 11	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	North Carolina vs Wake Forest	-10.5	64.5	W 31 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/23	North Carolina at Boston College	-2.0	50.5	L 21 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/30	North Carolina vs NC State	-2.5	54.5	L 30 - 35	O	N
Sat 12/28	North Carolina vs UConn	-2.0	53.5	L 14 - 27	U	N

North Carolina's 2023 Schedule
Sat 9/2	North Carolina vs South Carolina	+2.5	63.5	W 31 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/9	North Carolina vs App State	-18.0	58.0	W 40 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/16	North Carolina vs Minnesota	-7.0	51.0	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/23	North Carolina at Pittsburgh	-7.0	49.5	W 41 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	North Carolina vs Syracuse	-9.5	59.0	W 40 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/14	North Carolina vs Miami	-2.5	57.5	W 41 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/21	North Carolina vs Virginia	-24.0	58.0	L 27 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/28	North Carolina at Georgia Tech	-12.0	65.5	L 42 - 46	O	N
Sat 11/4	North Carolina vs Campbell	-45.5	68.5	W 59 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/11	North Carolina vs Duke	-9.5	52.5	W 47 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/18	North Carolina at Clemson	+7.5	58.0	L 20 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/25	North Carolina at NC State	-2.0	55.0	L 20 - 39	O	N
Wed 12/27	North Carolina vs West Virginia	+4.5	62.0	L 10 - 30	U	N

North Carolina's 2022 Schedule
Sat 8/27	North Carolina vs Florida A&M	-45.0	55.0	W 56 - 24	O	N
Sat 9/3	North Carolina at App State	+3.0	56.0	W 63 - 61	O	Y
Sat 9/10	North Carolina at Georgia State	-7.0	64.0	W 35 - 28	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/24	North Carolina vs Notre Dame	-2.5	55.0	L 32 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/1	North Carolina vs Virginia Tech	-9.5	57.0	W 41 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/8	North Carolina at Miami	+4.0	67.5	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/15	North Carolina at Duke	-7.0	70.0	W 38 - 35	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/29	North Carolina vs Pittsburgh	-2.5	65.5	W 42 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/5	North Carolina at Virginia	-7.0	61.5	W 31 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/12	North Carolina at Wake Forest	+4.5	79.0	W 36 - 34	U	Y
Sat 11/19	North Carolina vs Georgia Tech	-21.5	63.5	L 17 - 21	U	N
Fri 11/25	North Carolina vs NC State	-6.5	56.0	L 27 - 30	O	N
Sat 12/3	North Carolina vs Clemson	+7.5	64.0	L 10 - 39	U	N
Wed 12/28	North Carolina vs Oregon	+13.0	76.0	L 27 - 28	U	Y

North Carolina's 2021 Schedule
Fri 9/3	North Carolina at Virginia Tech	-5.5	63.5	L 10 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/11	North Carolina vs Georgia State	-26.0	65.0	W 59 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/18	North Carolina vs Virginia	-7.5	67.0	W 59 - 39	O	Y
Sat 9/25	North Carolina vs Georgia Tech	-14.5	66.0	L 22 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/2	North Carolina vs Duke	-19.5	74.0	W 38 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/9	North Carolina vs Florida State	-17.5	64.5	L 25 - 35	U	N
Sat 10/16	North Carolina vs Miami	-7.5	63.5	W 45 - 42	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30	North Carolina at Notre Dame	+3.5	63.0	L 34 - 44	O	N
Sat 11/6	North Carolina vs Wake Forest	-2.5	78.0	W 58 - 55	O	Y
Thu 11/11	North Carolina at Pittsburgh	+6.5	72.0	L 23 - 30	U	N
Sat 11/20	North Carolina vs Wofford	-37.0	62.0	W 34 - 14	U	N
Fri 11/26	North Carolina at NC State	+6.5	62.0	L 30 - 34	O	Y
Thu 12/30	North Carolina vs South Carolina	-12.5	57.5	L 21 - 38	O	N

2026 class: 248 points   #17
2025 class: 212 points   #35
2024 class: 229 points   #28
2023 class: 219 points   #30
2022 class: 259 points   #10

Average Class Ranking:   #24
Average Recruiting Points: 233

Four Year Crootin Profile
Consistent Top 25 Contenders
4 Year Class: #28 - Best: #10 Worst: #35

CFB Crootin Averages
ACC Class: 212  #43
Power 4 Class: 226  #43
FBS Class: 189  #71

2021 class: 258 points   #11
2020 class: 259 points   #16
2019 class: 222 points   #24
2018 class: 232 points   #22
2017 class: 208 points   #28

Average Class Ranking:   #20
Average Recruiting Points: 236

Transfer Portal Classes
2025 Portal Class #9 - 41 players, 87 Avg
2025 Portal Class #9 - 41 players, 87 Avg
2024 Portal Class #58 - 10 players, 87 Avg
2023 Portal Class #30 - 10 players, 88 Avg

Transfer Portal Classes

Transfer Portal Classes
2022 Portal Class #41 - 5 players, 87 Avg
2021 Portal Class #11 - 24 players, 91 Avg
2020 Portal Class NR - players, 0 Avg
2019 Portal Class NR - players, 0 Avg

Offensive Coordinator Freddie Kitchens (in his first season) #1

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Taron Dickens	271	365	74%	3508	38	2	9.6
Billy Edwards	7	16	44%	113	0	0	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Demon June	84	464	2	5.5	50
Taron Dickens	97	321	1	3.3	28
Benjamin Hall (Tr)	71	274	2	3.9	18
Trech Kekahuna	14	129	1	9.2	61

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Shipp	60	671	6	11.2	55
Mason Humphrey	35	651	4	18.6	77
Trech Kekahuna	26	211	0	8.1	45
Demon June	17	159	1	9.4	72

(Tr) - new transfer in 2026

Defensive Coordinator Stephen Belichick (in his first season) #1

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Melkart Abou-Jaoude (Tr)	47	12	11	5	0
Kaleb Cost	45	2	0	0	5
Isaiah Johnson (Tr)	37	3	2	1	0
Leroy Jackson	34	0	0	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Melkart Abou-Jaoude (Tr)	47	12	11	5
Isaiah Johnson (Tr)	37	3	2	1
Jaylen Harvey	9	2	1	1
Xavier Lewis	8	1	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jaiden Patterson	33	2	5
Kaleb Cost	45	2	5
Coleman Bryson (Tr)	16	0	2

Returning Production
Overall Returning Production: 50% #74
Offense Returning Production: 54% #55
Defense Returning Production: 46% #86
North Carolina's Official Roster

Transfer Portal
2025 Portal Class #9
41 Commits, 86.8 Avg Rating
43% of 2025 Roster from Portal, 43% TY

Team Talent
2025 Talent Rating: 938.00 #17
Offense Talent #19 | Defense Talent #24
2025 #17 | 2024 #21 | 2023 #17 | 2022 #16

2025 - 2023 Records
2025 Record: 4 - 8
2025 Conf Record: 2 - 6
Spread: 5 - 7 - 0 | Totals: 5 - 7

2025 Record: 4 - 8
2025 Conf Record: 2 - 6
Spread: 5 - 7 - 0 | Totals: 5 - 7

2024 Record: 6 - 7
2024 Conf Record: 3 - 5
Spread: 2 - 10 - 1 | Totals: 5 - 8

2023 Record: 8 - 5
2023 Conf Record: 4 - 4
Spread: 6 - 7 - 0 | Totals: 6 - 7

Four Year Record: 22 - 28
Four Year Record vs. Spread: 18 - 31 - 1
Four Year Conference Record: 11 - 21

2022 - 2019 Records
2022 Record: 9 - 5
2022 Conf Record: 6 - 3
Spread: 6 - 7 - 1 | Totals: 6 - 8

2021 Record: 6 - 7
2021 Conf Record: 4 - 6
Spread: 5 - 8 - 0 | Totals: 8 - 5

2020 Record: 8 - 4
2020 Conf Record: 7 - 3
Spread: 5 - 7 - 0 | Totals: 6 - 6

2019 Record: 7 - 6
2019 Conf Record: 4 - 4
Spread: 7 - 5 - 0 | Totals: 7 - 6

Eight Year Record: 52 - 50
Eight Year Record vs. Spread: 41 - 58 - 2
Eight Year Conference Record: 36 - 37

North Carolina Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2024	Fenway Bowl	North Carolina vs UConn	-2.0	53.5	L 14 - 27
2023	Mayo Bowl	North Carolina vs West Virginia	+4.5	62.0	L 10 - 30
2022	Holiday Bowl	North Carolina vs Oregon	+13.0	76.0	L 27 - 28
2021	Mayo Bowl	North Carolina vs South Carolina	-12.5	57.5	L 21 - 38
2020	Orange Bowl	North Carolina vs Texas A&M	+7.0	67.5	L 27 - 41
2019	Military Bowl	North Carolina vs Temple	-6.0	56.5	W 55 - 13
2016	N/A	North Carolina vs Stanford	+2.5	55.0	L 23 - 25
2015	Athletic Bowl	North Carolina vs Baylor	+3.5		L 38 - 49

Power Ranking Stats (2025)

Teams	Offense PPA	Offense Expl	Offense Success	Offense Pts Per Opp	Avg Start FP	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Defense PPA	Defense Expl	Defense Success	Defense Pts Per Opp	Opponent FP
2025	.07 (119)	1.16 (121)	38% (115)	3.33 (108)	29.3 (62)	37%	73%	.18 (78)	1.25 (62)	41% (60)	3.58 (61)	28.4 (54)

Teams	Offense PPA	Offense Expl	Offense Success	Offense Pts Per Opp	Avg Start FP	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Defense PPA	Defense Expl	Defense Success	Defense Pts Per Opp	Opponent FP
2024	.2 (65)	1.32 (39)	42% (80)	4.08 (52)	29.1 (70)	40%	50%	.17 (70)	1.27 (66)	41% (53)	4.01 (90)	29.8 (90)

More Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs
2025	12	28:24	16.6	37%	73%	6.6	62.6	1.3	1	5.1	2.6	0

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs
2024	13	27:42	20.2	40%	50%	6.8	59.8	1.2	1.2	5.2	2.8	6

Overall Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PPG	Home	Road	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
2025 Offense	12	19.3	21	17.5	38.2% (115)	3.33 (108)	1.3	17	289	105	184	3.7	48% (83)	50% (58)	38% (121)	39% (98)	17% (94)	.07 (119)
2025 Defense	12	24.5	26	23	40.9% (60)	3.58 (61)	1	-	-	-	-	-	47% (36)	51% (103)	42% (64)	40% (50)	15% (91)	.18 (78)

Teams	Games	PPG	Home	Road	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
2024 Offense	13	30.9	36	27.2	42% (80)	4.08 (52)	1.2	20	391	175	216	4.9	52% (53)	47% (82)	47% (34)	37% (114)	15% (49)	.2 (65)
2024 Defense	13	28.1	33.4	20.8	40.5% (53)	4.01 (90)	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	53% (92)	46% (38)	44% (82)	37% (26)	15% (90)	.17 (70)

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
2025 Offense	12	48% (83)	38% (121)	28.8	105.2	3.7	11 (107)	-.03 (130)	2.72 (110)	64% (114)	11% (111)	0.8 (127)
2025 Defense	12	47% (36)	42% (64)	-	-	-	-	.14 (91)	2.72 (37)	89% (134)	10% (70)	0.99 (88)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
2024 Offense	13	52% (53)	47% (34)	35.9	175.2	4.9	26 (36)	.26 (14)	3.32 (22)	70% (89)	9% (54)	1.06 (36)
2024 Defense	13	53% (92)	44% (82)	-	-	-	-	.16 (88)	3.39 (121)	86% (130)	9% (83)	0.89 (29)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
2025 Offense	12	50% (58)	39% (98)	18.9	29.6	183.9	6.2	9.7	13 (121)	6 (34)	.21 (92)	1.5 (103)	31% (56)	28% (92)	.26 (85)	6% (55)	1.8 (130)
2025 Defense	12	51% (103)	40% (50)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (75)	.2 (51)	1.4 (17)	31% (76)	29% (61)	.32 (78)	5% (90)	2 (51)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
2024 Offense	13	47% (82)	37% (114)	16.8	29	215.9	7.5	12.8	17 (79)	8 (40)	.17 (101)	1.7 (29)	32% (74)	29% (94)	.32 (78)	6% (60)	2.1 (33)
2024 Defense	13	46% (38)	37% (26)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.22 (64)	1.8 (125)	32% (66)	26% (12)	.23 (35)	5% (103)	2.2 (99)

Injury Notes
(10/21) OT W Boone no longer w/ team, started 1st 3 games ❌

Staff/Schedule Notes
(12/12) Fired OC Freddie Kitchens & STC Mike Priefer ❌
(10/8) Sounds like this Belichick experiment is ending fast ❌
(4/17) NFL style not open to fans/media. We'll see ❌
(3/21) Is Belichick serious here? Staff hires say no ❌
(3/21) Sched is easiest in P4. Just OK wins 8-9 ❌

Overall

Team Info

Power #72SP+ #91

Record Prediction: 4 - 8 NR

Coaching staff Rank #1

Record

4 - 8
ACC 2 - 6

Vs Spread5 - 7 - 0Totals5 - 7

One Score Games '25: (1-3)(1-3 under B.B.)

5 Year Profile

Declining Top G5

'26 Profile

Down to Average G5

Performance #83

Special Teams #70

Returning Production

From 2025

0% #1

UNC lost their 25 starting QB

Offense 54% #55

Defense 46% #86

Returning Starters: (Off: ) - (Def: )

Proj Portal Starters: (Off: ) - (Def: )

Exp'd Depth: (Off: ) - (Def: )

OL Prod: 80% #193 starters, 0 exp'd depth

OL Snaps: 5,084 #2From Portal: 2662 #8

Rush Prod: 35% #106

Rec Prod: 33% #107

Front Seven: 34% #115

Secondary: 65% #46

Roster

Talent Info

Talent #17

Blue Chips (17%) #29

Offense Talent #19

Defense Talent #24

Portal Class #941 players (87 Avg)

Crootin '26 Class #174 YR Class Rating #28

Talent Profile

Consistent Top 25 Contenders

43% of Roster from Portal, 43% TY

89% of '26 Roster are New (Fr + Portals)

(OC) Freddie Kitchens 1

(DC) Stephen Belichick 1

2025 Schedule

Information

SOS #73

North Carolina plays 4 opps off a byeRICH & UCF & CLEM & CAL

OppsElite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

2025 Record: 4 - 8 (5 - 7 - 0) (ACC: 2 - 6)

2024 Record: 6 - 7 (2 - 10 - 1) (ACC: 3 - 5)

Win History

Past 5 years 6.6

Avg under Bill B 4

4 Yr Record (22 - 28)

8 Yr Record (52 - 50)

Notes

Live Team Notes

Fired OC Freddie Kitchens & STC Mike Priefer

Playing much better & still finding ways to lose

OT W Boone no longer w/ team, started 1st 3 games

Sounds like this Belichick experiment is ending fast

Team is a complete joke, fitting for Carolina

Worse than even I thought, Def bad G5 level

QB1 - Gio Lopez has won starting job in fall

One of the most exp'd OLs, but 52% from portals

QB Lopez (S Al) added post spring.

NFL style not open to fans/media. We'll see

Roster Experience

Snaps & Starter Info

Snaps Returning

0 (0%) #1

%of Snaps by Upperclass

Offense: 0 #1

Defense: 0 #1

Players with Starting Exp () on Off, on Def

Upperclass

Starters 0 of 22 (0%)2-Deep 0 of 44 (0%)

Senior/Gr starters: 0 (0%) (Off: 0, Def: 0)

Upperclass Two-Deep: 0 of 44 (0%)

Upperclass on Roster: 34.6%(44 of 127)

Portals

Top '25 Incoming Portals

Pryce Yates (DL)4★ (.92)

Daniel King (OT)4★ (.92)

Thaddeus Dixon (CB)4★ (.92)

Khmori House (LB)4★ (.90)

Smith Vilbert (EDGE)4★ (.90)

D'Antre Robinson (DL)4★ (.90)

Mikai Gbayor (LB)4★ (.90)

Isaiah Johnson (DL)3★ (.89)

Top Players

Top Performers on Roster

Top Players N/A Before 2025

Recruits

Top '25 Incoming Recruits

Bryce Baker (QB)4★ (.95)

Austin Alexander (DL)3★ (.89)

Jaylen McGill (RB)3★ (.89)

Chinedu Onyeagoro (EDGE)3★ (.88)

Au'tori Newkirk (QB)3★ (.88)

Javion Butts (S)3★ (.87)

Byron Nelson (IOL)3★ (.87)

Tyler Houser (LB)3★ (.87)

Overall

Four Year Ratings Profile

Offense

Four Year Ratings Profile

Defense

Four Year Ratings Profile