Duke Team Profile
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Duke Blue Devils (@DukeFootball)
Manny Diaz (2nd year) (18-8)
Record: 9 - 5 (7 - 2)  |  Proj: 9 - 6 (#42)  |  SOS: (#46)
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Duke's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Duke vs Elon-36.551.5W 45 - 17ON
Sat 9/6 Duke vs Illinois+2.549.0L 19 - 45ON
Sat 9/13 Duke at Tulane+1.552.5L 27 - 34ON
Sat 9/20 Duke vs NC State-3.057.5W 45 - 33OY
Sat 9/27 Duke at Syracuse-4.059.5W 38 - 3UY
Sat 10/4 Duke at California-3.554.5W 45 - 21OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Duke vs Georgia Tech-3.560.5L 18 - 27UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Duke at Clemson+4.555.5W 46 - 45OY
Sat 11/8 Duke at UConn-7.563.5L 34 - 37ON
Sat 11/15 Duke vs Virginia-5.559.5L 17 - 34UN
Sat 11/22 Duke at North Carolina-6.550.5W 32 - 25OY
Sat 11/29 Duke vs Wake Forest-2.554.0W 49 - 32OY
Sat 12/6 Duke vs Virginia+3.558.5W 27 - 20UY
Wed 12/31 Duke vs Arizona State-4.049.5W 42 - 39ON

Record Prediction: 8.5 - 5.5  #42
Schedule Rating:  #46
Record: 9 - 5( ACC: 7 - 2)
Spread Record 7 - 7 - 0 | O/U 10 - 4
Future 2026 Schedule

Duke's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30 Duke vs Elon-24.547.5W 26 - 3UN
Fri 9/6 Duke vs Northwestern+2.537.5W 26 - 20OY
Sat 9/14 Duke vs UConn-17.546.5W 26 - 21ON
Sat 9/21 Duke at Middle Tennessee-14.551.0W 45 - 17OY
Sat 9/28 Duke vs North Carolina+1.055.5W 21 - 20UY
Sat 10/5 Duke at Georgia Tech+10.052.5L 14 - 24UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/18 Duke vs Florida State-2.543.0W 23 - 16UY
Sat 10/26 Duke vs SMU+11.549.5L 27 - 28OY
Sat 11/2 Duke at Miami+21.055.5L 31 - 53ON
Sat 11/9 Duke at NC State+3.551.5W 29 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Duke vs Virginia Tech+2.545.5W 31 - 28OY
Sat 11/30 Duke at Wake Forest-3.553.5W 23 - 17UY
Thu 1/2 Duke vs Ole Miss+17.550.5L 20 - 52ON

2024 Schedule Rating:  #62
2024 Record: 9 - 4 (ACC: 5 - 3)
Spread Record 8 - 4 - 1 | O/U 7 - 6


Opponents: 0 Elite, 6 Good, 4 Avg, 2 Bad, 1 Poor
Played: 0 Elite, 5 Good, 4 Avg, 2 Bad, 1 Poor
Future: 0 Elite, 1 Good, 0 Avg, 0 Bad, 0Poor
Reg Season Opponents: Elite, Good, Avg, Bad, Poor

Show Past Schedules
2026 class: 187 points   #64
2025 class: 221 points   #31
2024 class: 184 points   #62
2023 class: 192 points   #55
2022 class: 187 points   #52

Average Class Ranking:   #53
Average Recruiting Points: 194

Four Year Crootin Profile
Improving Average P4
4 Year Class:  #48 - Best:  #31 Worst:  #62



CFB Crootin Averages
ACC Class: 211  #42
Power 4 Class: 225  #42
FBS Class: 179  #69


2021 class: 176 points   #58
2020 class: 172 points   #61
2019 class: 191 points   #49
2018 class: 177 points   #63
2017 class: 184 points   #47

Average Class Ranking:   #56
Average Recruiting Points: 180
 

2025 Portal Class  #91 - 8 players, 86 Avg
2024 Portal Class  #41 - 11 players, 87 Avg
2023 Portal Class  #58 - 9 players, 86 Avg
2022 Portal Class  #87 - 8 players, 85 Avg

Transfer Portal Classes
Portal Data only 2022 forward

Offensive Coordinator Jonathan Brewer (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Darian Mensah (Tr)33450067%39733467.9
Henry Belin IV2540%22004.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Nate Sheppard2001132115.760
Anderson Castle (Tr)115488124.266
Jaquez Moore4120114.932
Travis Bates95706.339
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cooper Barkate (Tr)721106715.477
Que'Sean Brown63842513.469
Sahmir Hagans44512611.635
Jeremiah Hasley40454611.456
(Tr) - new transfer in 2025

Defensive Coordinator Jonathan Patke (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Luke Mergott918293
Caleb Weaver (Tr)896201
DaShawn Stone862013
Jaiden Francois (Tr)738123
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Vincent Anthony3413742
Josiah Green (Tr)387423
Aaron Hall4411340
Wesley Williams4382161
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chandler Rivers594018
Luke Mergott918293
Josiah Green (Tr)387423
Returning Production
Overall Returning Production: 58%  #55
Offense Returning Production: 60%  #57
Defense Returning Production: 56%  #59

Transfer Portal
2025 Portal Class  #91
8 Commits, 86 Avg Rating
11% of 2025 Roster from Portal, 9% TY
Team Talent
2025 Talent Rating: 816.00  #48
Offense Talent  #63 | Defense Talent  #32
2024  #1 | 2023  #1 | 2022  #62 | 2021  #60


2025 - 2022 Records
2025 Record: 9 - 5
2025 Conf Record: 7 - 2
Spread: 7 - 7 - 0 | Totals: 10 - 4

2024 Record: 9 - 4
2024 Conf Record: 5 - 3
Spread: 8 - 4 - 1 | Totals: 7 - 6

2023 Record: 8 - 5
2023 Conf Record: 4 - 4
Spread: 7 - 6 - 0 | Totals: 7 - 6

2022 Record: 9 - 4
2022 Conf Record: 5 - 3
Spread: 9 - 4 - 0 | Totals: 5 - 8

Four Year Record: 35 - 18
Four Year Record vs. Spread: 31 - 21 - 1
Four Year Conference Record: 21 - 12
2021 - 2018 Records
2021 Record: 3 - 9
2021 Conf Record: 0 - 8
Spread: 4 - 8 - 0 | Totals: 6 - 6

2020 Record: 2 - 9
2020 Conf Record: 1 - 9
Spread: 4 - 7 - 0 | Totals: 6 - 5

2019 Record: 5 - 7
2019 Conf Record: 3 - 5
Spread: 5 - 7 - 0 | Totals: 8 - 4

2018 Record: 8 - 5
2018 Conf Record: 3 - 5
Spread: 7 - 6 - 0 | Totals: 7 - 6

Eight Year Record: 53 - 48
Eight Year Record vs. Spread: 51 - 49 - 1
Eight Year Conference Record: 33 - 39

Duke Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025Sun Bowl Duke vs Arizona State-4.049.5W 42 - 39
2024Gator Bowl Duke vs Ole Miss+17.550.5L 20 - 52
2023Birmingham Bowl Duke vs Troy+7.044.0W 17 - 10
2022Military Bowl Duke vs UCF-3.563.0W 30 - 13
2018Independence Bowl Duke vs Temple+3.556.5W 56 - 27
2017Lane Bowl Duke vs Northern Illinois-4.548.0W 36 - 14
2015Pinstripe Bowl Duke vs Indiana+2.0W 44 - 41
Power Ranking Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Offense PPAOffense ExplOffense SuccessOffense Pts Per OppAvg Start FP3rd Down %4th Down %Defense PPADefense ExplDefense SuccessDefense Pts Per OppOpponent FP
2025.25 (25)1.33 (30)46% (30)4.32 (26)31.3 (21)39%74%.23 (116)1.35 (120)44% (98)4.39 (129)27.7 (43)
 Teams                  Offense PPAOffense ExplOffense SuccessOffense Pts Per OppAvg Start FP3rd Down %4th Down %Defense PPADefense ExplDefense SuccessDefense Pts Per OppOpponent FP
2024.12 (109)1.26 (84)39% (116)3.7 (90)31.2 (24)29%38%.06 (10)1.17 (22)38% (16)3.19 (17)28.6 (58)



More Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDs
20251429:4322.539%74%6.462.711.76.71.93
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDs
20241325:0516.329%38%5.148.91.428.53.21



Overall Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPPGHomeRoadSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun Rate  Pass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
2025 Offense1434.632.23746% (30)4.32 (26)1234241382854.344% (112)55% (21)45% (51)47% (20)15% (67).25 (25)
2025 Defense1429.431.327.543.8% (98)4.39 (129)1.7 - - - - - 48% (49)50% (86)43% (73)46% (119)17% (36).23 (116)
 Teams                  GamesPPGHomeRoadSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun Rate  Pass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
2024 Offense1326.325.728.438.6% (116)3.7 (90)1.416315892263.344% (110)56% (24)35% (129)42% (69)19% (115).12 (109)
2024 Defense1324.519.32637.6% (16)3.19 (17)2 - - - - - 52% (81)48% (53)41% (51)34% (5)23% (2).06 (10)



Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
2025 Offense1444% (112)45% (51)32.4138.24.326 (60).08 (85)2.8 (99)69% (85)10% (79)0.97 (65)
2025 Defense1448% (49)43% (73) - - - - .1 (68)2.62 (19)73% (85)12% (15)1.03 (101)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
2024 Offense1344% (110)35% (129)27.589.23.313 (105)-.07 (133)2.47 (131)78% (32)10% (78)0.74 (131)
2024 Defense1352% (81)41% (51) - - - - .06 (35)2.74 (28)59% (6)15% (2)0.91 (38)



Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs     Ints     PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
2025 Offense1455% (21)47% (20)2436.1285.47.911.934 (14)6 (7).39 (24)1.6 (44)30% (39)33% (37).4 (30)6% (56)2.2 (13)
2025 Defense1450% (86)46% (119) - - - - - - 14 (22).41 (125)1.6 (107)32% (56)34% (123).44 (128)6% (86)2 (77)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs     Ints     PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
2024 Offense1356% (24)42% (69)19.632.5226.1711.526 (26)12 (85).28 (55)1.6 (56)32% (73)29% (98).3 (82)9% (129)2 (78)
2024 Defense1348% (53)34% (5) - - - - - - 12 (39).06 (7)1.5 (39)34% (35)29% (41).27 (53)7% (28)2.1 (69)




Overall
Power Rating  #42 | SP+ Rating  #53
Performance Grade  #37
Special Teams Grade  #40
Record Prediction 8.5 - 5.5  #42
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 4

5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Offense
Power  #23 | SP+  #23 | Grade  #16
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
Off Success  #30 | Explosivness  #30
Rush Grade  #36 | Pass Grade  #13
Rush Success  #51 | Explosiveness  #65
Pass Success  #20 | Explosiveness  #44
Run Block  #36 | Pass Block  #24
OL YDS  #99 | Stuff Rate  #115
Scoring Zone Off:  #26

Defense
Power  #57 | SP+  #91 | Grade  #99
Def Success  #98 | Explosivness  #120
Rush Success  #73 | Explosiveness  #101
Tackling  #89 | Run Def  #62
Pass Success  #119 | Explosiveness  #107
Pass Rush  #68 | Coverage  #105
F7 Havoc  #15 | DB Havoc  #86
DL YDS  #19 | Def Stuff Rate  #11
Scoring Zone Def  #129


Roster
Team Talent  #48 Blue Chips: 5%  #54
Offense Talent  #63 Defense Talent  #32
Crootin: '25 Class  #64 - 4 YR Class:  #48
Profile: Improving Average P4
Portal Class  #91 - 8 players, 86 Avg
11% of Roster from Portal, 9% TY
50 New Players, 52% of '25 Roster  #23

Scoring & Records
Scoring: 34.6 - 29.4 | Scoring Margin: (5.2)
Home: 32 - 31 (0.9) | Road: 37 - 28 (9.5)
OC: Jonathan Brewer - in his second season
DC: Jonathan Patke - in his second season

2025 Record: 9 - 5 (7 - 7 - 0) (ACC: 7 - 2)
2024 Record: 9 - 4 (8 - 4 - 1) (ACC: 5 - 3)
2023 Record: 8 - 5 (7 - 6 - 0) (ACC: 4 - 4)
4 Yr Record: (35 - 18) | 8 Yr Record: (53 - 48)


Notes
Duke just isn't good. 1-3 run, need 1 more to bowl
Wild W over Clemson, 6.1% post game win exp!
Mistakes killing Duke, Outplayed GT but Run Off bad
Great W vs NC St, Mensah better, Def got 4 TOs
QB Mensah feels slept on, kid is really dynamic
S T Moore & C Weaver the top duo in ACC
Secondary a top ACC unit, should be strength
Duke was 6-1 in 1 score games LY
CB Chandler Rivers/ S Terry Moore top 10 via PFF
OT Brian Parker II a top OT via PFF
 
'25 Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
Good Offense Success Rate of 46%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.28 PPO
Avg Run Success 44%
Good Pass Success 47%
Avg Offensive Turnovers
Avg OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Avg 1st/2nd Down Success 70%
Good when off Schedule 34%

'25 Defense
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 44%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.45 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Awful Pass Def Success 46%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good at Forcing Turnovers
Awful Penalty Team, Avg Field Position
Avg 1st/2nd Down Success 68%
Awful when Opp is off Schedule 34%

Returning Prod
DUKE lost their '24 starting QB (61%)  #68
Returning Production: 58%  #55
Offense: 60%  #57 | Defense: 56%  #59
OL Prod: 82%  #13, 4 clear starters
OL Snaps: 3513  #39 | From Portal: 0  #100
Rush Prod: 54%  #65 | Rec Prod: 36%  #97
Def Front Seven: 54% - Secondary: 74%
Vegas Preseason Win Total: 6.5 - 5.5

 
4 Year Overall
2025 SP+ Overall:  #53 - Power Rating:  #42
2024 SP+ Overall:  #44 - Power Rating:  #50
2023 SP+ Overall:  #29 - Power Rating:  #40
2022 SP+ Overall:  #55

#55 #35 #47 #48

4 Year Offense
2025 SP+ Offense:  #23 - Power Rating:  #23
2024 SP+ Offense:  #71 - Power Rating:  #113
2023 SP+ Offense:  #53 - Power Rating:  #48
2022 SP+ Offense:  #61

#61 #51 #92 #23

4 Year Defense
2025 SP+ Defense:  #91 - Power Rating:  #57
2024 SP+ Defense:  #31 - Power Rating:  #17
2023 SP+ Defense:  #25 - Power Rating:  #59
2022 SP+ Defense:  #50

#50 #42 #24 #74