Toledo at Louisville - 2025 Matchup Preview
Toledo logo   Toledo Rockets vs Louisville Cardinals  Louisville logo
Tuesday, December 23rd 2025 (2:00 PM EST)
Louisville -12.5 (44.5) (-485)  Open: -9.5 | 46.5
Louisville 27 - Toledo: 22  (Bush's Boca Raton Bowl)

 
Rockets (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (72 - 40)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (17 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 11)
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Louisville -5  (SP+ LOU -6)
Projected Score: TOL: 20 - LOU: 25 (45)
LOU Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
TOL Travel: 1075 miles
Cardinals (9 - 4) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (18 - 8)
Avg Score : 30 - 21 (34 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Toledo's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Toledo at Kentucky+10.048.5L 16 - 24UY
Sat 9/6 Toledo vs Western Kentucky-8.557.5W 45 - 21OY
Sat 9/13 Toledo vs Morgan State-33.554.5W 60 - 0OY
Sat 9/20 Toledo at Western Michigan-13.548.5L 13 - 14UN
Sat 9/27 Toledo vs Akron-21.550.5W 45 - 3UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Toledo at Bowling Green-10.545.5L 23 - 28ON
Sat 10/18 Toledo vs Kent State-25.548.5W 45 - 10OY
Sat 10/25 Toledo at Washington State-1.544.5L 7 - 28UN
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/5 Toledo vs Northern Illinois-14.542.5W 42 - 3OY
Wed 11/12 Toledo at Miami (OH)-6.544.5W 24 - 3UY
Sat 11/22 Toledo vs Ball State-29.545.5W 38 - 9ON
Sat 11/29 Toledo at Central Michigan-11.546.5W 21 - 3UY
Tue 12/23 Toledo vs Louisville+12.544.5L 22 - 27OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 9
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 9
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule
Louisville's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Louisville vs Eastern Kentucky-37.557.5W 51 - 17ON
Fri 9/5 Louisville vs James Madison-15.057.0W 28 - 14UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Louisville vs Bowling Green-26.550.5W 40 - 17ON
Sat 9/27 Louisville at Pittsburgh-3.053.5W 34 - 27OY
Sat 10/4 Louisville vs Virginia-6.559.5L 27 - 30UN
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 Louisville at Miami+10.549.5W 24 - 21UY
Sat 10/25 Louisville vs Boston College-25.554.5W 38 - 24ON
Sat 11/1 Louisville at Virginia Tech-10.552.5W 28 - 16UY
Sat 11/8 Louisville vs California-18.548.5L 26 - 29ON
Fri 11/14 Louisville vs Clemson-1.550.5L 19 - 20UN
Sat 11/22 Louisville at SMU+4.049.5L 6 - 38UN
Sat 11/29 Louisville vs Kentucky-1.045.5W 41 - 0UY
Tue 12/23 Louisville vs Toledo-12.544.5W 27 - 22ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Louisville's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL#111 (.11)41% (95)30.838% (120)2.66 (121)11144% (46)2273.55 (99)#20 (.09)40% (43)13.342% (60)38% (35)3.87 (79)46.71.31.3
LOU#15 (.31)46% (26)29.948% (20)3.09 (56)17345% (30)2514.27 (31)#73 (.18)40% (49)21.240% (44)40% (65)3.98 (87)46.10.81.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
LOU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Offense1330.817.340.8%3.551.3183391112273.546%53%38%44%16%.11
LOU Defense1321.218.940.2%3.981.2 - - - - - 49%51%40%40%16%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Defense1313.316.739.8%3.871.3 - - - - - 52%48%42%38%19%.09
LOU Offense1329.933.846.4%4.270.8204241732515.845%54%48%45%13%.31

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Toledo1325:0618.436%50%5.446.71.31.36.22.1231.4
Louisville1327:3920.140%40%5.946.10.81.25.82.2130.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Offense1346% (96)38% (120)31.5111.33.512 (114)-.04 (127)2.66 (121)57% (130)10% (74)0.83 (125)
LOU Defense1349% (50)40% (44) - - - - .08 (43)2.9 (51)65% (25)11% (43)0.99 (71)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Defense1352% (83)42% (60) - - - - .11 (66)3.01 (69)77% (89)12% (31)0.95 (48)
LOU Offense1345% (103)48% (20)29.9172.75.827 (30).2 (35)3.09 (56)65% (116)8% (27)1.04 (43)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Offense1353% (41)44% (46)19.231227.27.311.826 (26)7 (26).26 (67)1.6 (61)31% (65)27% (108).18 (115)6% (76)2 (68)
LOU Defense1351% (88)40% (65) - - - - - - 9 (76).27 (87)1.7 (111)31% (78)33% (99).26 (48)5% (94)1.8 (14)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Defense1348% (51)38% (35) - - - - - - 10 (66).08 (11)1.5 (29)34% (38)29% (39).22 (34)7% (35)2 (43)
LOU Offense1354% (32)45% (30)19.630.9251.58.112.823 (41)6 (10).41 (9)1.7 (34)30% (40)38% (8).5 (9)5% (40)2.1 (42)

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 8.00  #46
Toledo's Offense Rating: 15.43  #55
Toledo's Defense Rating: 7.43  #32
2025 Talent Rating: 718.00  #71
Blue Chip Ratio: 4%  #56
Toledo's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Toledo's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.0  #48
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.8  #75
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.5  #21

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 571
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 8.00   Louisville: 11.99

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 6.0   Louisville: 12.4




Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 11.99  #36
Louisville's Offense Rating: 17.35  #43
Louisville's Defense Rating: 5.77  #27
2025 Talent Rating: 788.00  #57
Blue Chip Ratio: 7  #46
Louisville's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Louisville's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.4  #25
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6  #39
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.8  #29

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.3
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 16.7

Toledo's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Louisville 25
Toledo 20

Projected Total Points: 45
Louisville Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.8
Defense: 21.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.9

Louisville's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 7 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 7 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202512/23Louisville27Toledo22Louisville -12.5Toledo44.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Louisville101 Overs
Toledo010 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0

Toledo Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025Raton Bowl Toledo vs Louisville+12.544.5L 22 - 27
2024Sports Bowl Toledo vs Pittsburgh+6.548.5W 48 - 46
2023Arizona Bowl Toledo vs Wyoming+4.543.5L 15 - 16
2022Raton Bowl Toledo vs Liberty-4.051.5W 21 - 19
2021Bahamas Bowl Toledo vs Middle Tennessee-10.050.0L 24 - 31
Louisville Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025Raton Bowl Louisville vs Toledo-12.544.5W 27 - 22
2024Sun Bowl Louisville vs Washington+1.050.5W 35 - 34
2023Holiday Bowl Louisville vs USC-4.558.0L 28 - 42
2022Fenway Bowl Louisville vs Cincinnati-2.538.5W 24 - 7
2021Responder Bowl Louisville vs Air Force+1.055.0L 28 - 31
2019City Bowl Louisville vs Mississippi State+5.064.5W 38 - 28
  
(#46) TOL at (#36) LOU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTOLLOU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #46 #36
SP+SP+ #48 #25
Perf GradeGrade #11 #16
OffenseOff #41 #49
DefenseDef #6 #11
Spec TeamsST #14 #70
TalentTal #71 #57
Blue ChipsBC% #56 #46
Toledo Notes
(12/11) HC Candle left for UConn? Very odd move
(12/11) Hired HC Mike Jacobs (Mercer). Pot. big upgrade
(11/13) Beat M-OH w/ QB2, not impressive. 3 TOs, 313 yds
(10/31) Killed by Wazzu in bad spot, Run Off awful 61 yds
(10/31) 8-4 best possible finish & must win @ Mia OH
(10/12) Blew another vs BG, OG'd BG by 200 yds & still lost
(10/12) Penalties, turnovers & awful coaching killing Toledo
(9/24) Gleason/Off disappointing. Penalty issues hurting
(9/20) Yearly awful L vs 0-3 WMU, Gleason 89 yds, 2 INT
(8/30) Run Off terrible, Run Def bad in L to UK
(8/20) CB A. Smith a true shutdown & NFL prospect
(7/28) OL 5/5 back. Best in MAC, top 3 in the G5
Toledo Injury Report
Louisville Notes
(11/21) QB Moss is ? for SMU game.
(11/16) Bad L vs Clemson, QB Moss culture comments??
(11/15) 3 losses as home favs in last 6 games
(11/4) RB1 I Brown out weeks, maybe SMU/UK (leg)
(11/1) Sluggish vs VT, Run Off 235 big w/ Moss off night
(10/17) Special teams all around one of the best in CFB
(10/17) Brohm special vs Miami, Run Off enough, Def great
(9/27) 17-0 comeback win at Pitt. Moss good, RBs/OL bad
(9/17) Starting LB S Clark likely out for season (leg)
(9/5) Good battle with JMU, Run Off needs work
(7/28) Def meh LY, added 17 via portal. DL & DB heavy
(7/17) DBs all new, starters come from 8 portals.
Louisville Injury Report
Toledo on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
TOL OffLOU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #41 #11
SuccessSuc #95 #49
ExplosiveExp #83 #109
PPAPPA #111 #73
PowerPwr #55 #27
SP+SP+ #75 #29
Pts POPPO #99 #87
HavocHav #72 #62
Toledo Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
TOL OffLOU Def
Run GameRun #62 #41
Run SuccessRSuc #120 #44
Run ExplRExp #125 #71
PPAExp #127 #43
Run BlockR Blk #52 -
OL YdsOLY #121 #51
Stuff RateStuff #120 #22
TackleTak -  #39
Toledo Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
TOL OffLOU Def
Pass GamePass #6 #20
Pass SuccessPSuc #46 #65
Pass ExplPExl #61 #111
PPAExp #67 #87
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #97 #3
F7 HavocF7 #74 #43
DB HavocDB #76 #94
Louisville on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatLOU OffTOL Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #49 #6
SuccessSuc #26 #43
ExplosiveExp #14 #33
PPAPPA #15 #20
PowerPwr #43 #32
SP+SP+ #39 #21
Pts POPPO #31 #79
HavocHav #23 #28
Louisville Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
LOU OffTOL Def
Run GameRun #10 #16
Run SuccessRSuc #20 #60
Run ExplRExp #43 #48
PPAExp #35 #66
Run BlockR Blk #66 -
OL YdsOLY #56 #69
Stuff RateStuff #54 #81
TackleTak -  #41
Louisville Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatLOU OffTOL Def
Pass GamePass #83 #13
Pass SuccessPSuc #30 #35
Pass ExplPExl #34 #29
PPAExp #9 #11
Pass Block/RushP Blk #69 #4
F7 HavocF7 #27 #31
DB HavocDB #40 #35
Program Comparison
LOU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

TOL 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in FAU Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 1
Louisville -12.5 (44.5)
Louisville won vs Toledo this year (27-22)

Previous Matchups
Louisville beat Toledo last year (27-22)

  
TOL's OC Mike Hallett (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tucker Gleason20732065%25152197.9
Kalieb Osborne325262%427308.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
DeaMonte Trayanum1821015125.675
Kenji Christian (Tr)10552845.037
Kalieb Osborne5128225.533
Tucker Gleason4614443.135
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Junior Vandeross8210081112.371
Trayvon Rudolph (Tr)39435211.258
Jacob Petersen (Tr)25335313.428
DeaMonte Trayanum21212210.157

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
K'Von Sherman9315561
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren776136
Chris D'Appolonia594124
Andre Fuller4930010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Martez Poynter4310790
Malachi Davis3510681
K'Von Sherman9315561
Jeremiah Peters246432
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Avery Smith4250010
Andre Fuller4930010
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren776136

LOU's OC Brian Brohm (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Miller Moss (Tr)24438064%26791677.1
Deuce Adams152171%112005.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Isaac Brown10188478.878
Keyjuan Brown9670467.367
Braxton Jennings3720015.422
Shaun Boykins3719015.126
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Bell72917612.764
Caullin Lacy60635210.648
Dacari Collins (Tr)13219116.836
Jaleel Skinner2120429.733

View Louisville's Full Roster

LOU's DC Ron English (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Quinn958314
D'Angelo Hutchinson843025
JoJo Evans (Tr)643134
Clev Lubin (Tr)5913873
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Clev Lubin (Tr)5913873
Wesley Bailey (Tr)397650
Adonijah Green316440
TJ Quinn958314
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
D'Angelo Hutchinson843025
Rene Konga295225
Tayon Holloway424104