Boston College at Louisville - 2025 Matchup Preview
Boston College logo Boston College Eagles at Louisville Cardinals(#19)Louisville logo
Saturday, October 25th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Louisville -25.5 (54.5) (-2800)  Open: -22.5
Louisville 38 - Boston College: 24  (ACC)

 
Eagles (2 - 10) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Bill O'Brien (7 - 5)
Avg Score : 25 - 33 (25 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
BC is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Louisville -18.5  (SP+ LOU -21)

Projected Score: BC: 18 - LOU: 37 (55)
LOU Win prob: 97% | Cover: 53%
BC Travel: 819 miles
Cardinals (9 - 4) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (18 - 8)
Avg Score : 30 - 21 (34 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
 
Boston College's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Boston College vs Fordham-35.053.5W 66 - 10OY
Sat 9/6 Boston College at Michigan State+3.545.5L 40 - 42OY
Sat 9/13 Boston College at Stanford-14.044.5L 20 - 30ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Boston College vs California-6.054.5L 24 - 28UN
Sat 10/4 Boston College at Pittsburgh+6.554.5L 7 - 48ON
Sat 10/11 Boston College vs Clemson+14.054.5L 10 - 41UN
Sat 10/18 Boston College vs UConn+2.558.5L 23 - 38ON
Sat 10/25 Boston College at Louisville+25.554.5L 24 - 38OY
Sat 11/1 Boston College vs Notre Dame+31.555.5L 10 - 25UY
Sat 11/8 Boston College vs SMU+10.554.5L 13 - 45ON
Sat 11/15 Boston College vs Georgia Tech+16.561.5L 34 - 36OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29 Boston College at Syracuse-2.554.5W 34 - 12UY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 3, Poor: 0

Predictions for Boston College's Schedule
Louisville's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Louisville vs Eastern Kentucky-37.557.5W 51 - 17ON
Fri 9/5 Louisville vs James Madison-15.057.0W 28 - 14UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Louisville vs Bowling Green-26.550.5W 40 - 17ON
Sat 9/27 Louisville at Pittsburgh-3.053.5W 34 - 27OY
Sat 10/4 Louisville vs Virginia-6.559.5L 27 - 30UN
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 Louisville at Miami+10.549.5W 24 - 21UY
Sat 10/25 Louisville vs Boston College-25.554.5W 38 - 24ON
Sat 11/1 Louisville at Virginia Tech-10.552.5W 28 - 16UY
Sat 11/8 Louisville vs California-18.548.5L 26 - 29ON
Fri 11/14 Louisville vs Clemson-1.550.5L 19 - 20UN
Sat 11/22 Louisville at SMU+4.049.5L 6 - 38UN
Sat 11/29 Louisville vs Kentucky-1.045.5W 41 - 0UY
Tue 12/23 Louisville vs Toledo-12.544.5W 27 - 22ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Louisville's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BC#79 (.16)42% (65)25.442% (91)2.75 (107)10444% (50)2803.39 (98)#114 (.23)43% (83)32.844% (85)42% (72)3.82 (86)49.71.81
LOU#82 (.16)45% (45)29.950% (13)2.84 (85)15041% (75)2093.54 (84)#15 (.05)37% (16)21.238% (18)37% (20)3.38 (45)59.51.21.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BC#89 (.16)41% (93)41% (96)2.87 (99)16441% (78)1764 (58)#56 (.15)42% (74)40% (40)44% (104)3.64 (51)401.21.8
LOU#15 (.31)46% (26)48% (20)3.09 (56)17345% (30)2514.27 (31)#73 (.18)40% (49)40% (44)40% (65)3.98 (87)46.10.81.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BC Offense1225.42542.4%3.391.8213841042803.340%58%42%44%17%.16
LOU Defense1321.218.936.7%3.381.5 - - - - - 46%53%38%37%17%.05
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BC Defense1232.83442.6%3.821 - - - - - 50%47%44%42%12%.23
LOU Offense1329.933.844.6%3.541.2183591502095.144%53%50%41%17%.16

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Boston College1229:1620.839%52%5.949.71.813.81.3127.6
Louisville1328:0117.837%55%6.559.51.21.55.22.1232.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BC Offense1240% (128)42% (91)31.31043.316 (88).05 (104)2.75 (107)80% (15)10% (82)0.89 (103)
LOU Defense1346% (17)38% (18) - - - - .07 (52)2.74 (42)75% (99)11% (39)0.95 (66)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BC Defense1250% (73)44% (85) - - - - .12 (81)2.79 (54)70% (59)7% (127)1.04 (106)
LOU Offense1344% (112)50% (13)29.5150.25.123 (70).23 (17)2.84 (85)65% (111)10% (98)1.08 (27)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BC Offense1258% (9)44% (50)23.937.8280.27.411.720 (42)12 (60).25 (67)1.4 (124)31% (65)31% (55).32 (64)7% (99)1.9 (91)
LOU Defense1353% (120)37% (20) - - - - - - 14 (6).06 (6)1.4 (8)34% (25)24% (10).11 (9)7% (37)1.9 (23)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BC Defense1247% (56)42% (72) - - - - - - 6 (75).39 (120)1.7 (127)29% (117)33% (109).36 (99)5% (104)2 (76)
LOU Offense1353% (34)41% (75)19.430.3208.86.910.816 (75)9 (60).13 (119)1.4 (130)28% (21)27% (104).14 (123)6% (89)1.9 (106)

Boston College's Power Ratings
Boston College's Power Rating: 2.24  #61
Boston College's Offense Rating: 10.55  #61
Boston College's Defense Rating: 8.31  #70
2025 Talent Rating: 792.00  #56
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Boston College's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Boston College's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.4  #102
Boston College's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.8  #94
Boston College's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.8  #111

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Boston College: 2.24   Louisville: 15.075

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Boston College: -9.4   Louisville: 11.7




Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 15.075  #35
Louisville's Offense Rating: 11.32  #57
Louisville's Defense Rating: -2.13  #25
2025 Talent Rating: 788.00  #57
Blue Chip Ratio: 7  #46
Louisville's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Louisville's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.7  #30
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.8  #43
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5  #28

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Boston College Scoring
Offense: 25.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 25
Defense: 32.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 34

Boston College's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Louisville 37
Boston College 18


Total Points: 55

Based on Last 4 Games
Louisville 38
Boston College 18

Total Points: 55

Based on Entire Season
Louisville 32
Boston College 23

Total Points: 55
Louisville Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.8
Defense: 21.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.9

Louisville's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 7 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 7 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/25Louisville38Boston College24Louisville -25.5Boston College54.5Over
202410/25Boston College27Louisville31Louisville -7.0Boston College54.0Over
202309/23Louisville56Boston College28Louisville -14Louisville53.0Over
202210/01Boston College34Louisville33Louisville -13.5Boston College48.5Over
202110/23Louisville28Boston College14Louisville -4Louisville57.5Under
202011/28Boston College34Louisville27Boston College -1Boston College57.0Over
201910/05Louisville41Boston College39Louisville -3.5Boston College61.0Over
201810/13Boston College38Louisville20Boston College -11Boston College56.5Over
201710/14Louisville42Boston College45Louisville -20Boston College60.0Over
201611/05Boston College7Louisville52Louisville -24.5Louisville52.0Over
201510/24Louisville17Boston College14Louisville -8.5Boston College37.0Under
201411/08Boston College19Louisville38Louisville -2.5Louisville0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Louisville849 Overs
Boston College482 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 46 - 64 - 42 - 2
Road Teams4 - 86 - 62 - 24 - 4

(#61) BC at (#35) LOU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBCLOU
Power RatePwr #61 #35
SP+SP+ #102 #30
Perf GradeGrade #107 #26
OffenseOff #74 #55
DefenseDef #126 #12
Spec TeamsST #45 #102
TalentTal #56 #57
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #46
Boston College Notes
(11/16) 500+ yds in L vs GT. Rough, lost season for BC
(10/31) Sounds like Dylan Lonergan is QB1 vs ND
(10/22) Defense near worst in CFB in scoring opportunites
(10/18) LT Bowry, LG Daugherty both out vs UConn
(10/18) L to UConn at home ugly, Pass Def torched, Off OK
(10/18) QB James in for Lonergan (benched). Run Off awful
(10/5) Quit watch: 48-7 loss at Pitt feels like turning point
(10/4) This Def is f'ing terrible. Not much to like about BC
(9/11) Both starting CBs out vs Stanford, DT as well
(9/9) QB Lonergan a baller, Pass Off good, can't run
(8/12) QB1 Lonergan (TR - Bama) beat James for job
(5/15) WR Bond back, Harris a playmaker. Solid group
Boston College Injury Report
Louisville Notes
(11/21) QB Moss is ? for SMU game.
(11/16) Bad L vs Clemson, QB Moss culture comments??
(11/15) 3 losses as home favs in last 6 games
(11/4) RB1 I Brown out weeks, maybe SMU/UK (leg)
(11/1) Sluggish vs VT, Run Off 235 big w/ Moss off night
(10/17) Special teams all around one of the best in CFB
(10/17) Brohm special vs Miami, Run Off enough, Def great
(9/27) 17-0 comeback win at Pitt. Moss good, RBs/OL bad
(9/17) Starting LB S Clark likely out for season (leg)
(9/5) Good battle with JMU, Run Off needs work
(7/28) Def meh LY, added 17 via portal. DL & DB heavy
(7/17) DBs all new, starters come from 8 portals.
Louisville Injury Report
Boston College on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat
BC OffLOU Def
Perf GradePerf #74 #12
SuccessSuc #65 #16
ExplosiveExp #92 #24
PPAPPA #79 #15
PowerPwr #61 #25
SP+SP+ #94 #28
Pts POPPO #98 #45
HavocHav #92 #35
Boston College Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat
BC OffLOU Def
Run GameRun #118 #59
Run SuccessRSuc #91 #18
Run ExplRExp #103 #66
PPAExp #104 #52
Run BlockR Blk #31 -
OL YdsOLY #107 #42
Stuff RateStuff #56 #52
TackleTak -  #60
Boston College Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat
BC OffLOU Def
Pass GamePass #84 #22
Pass SuccessPSuc #50 #20
Pass ExplPExl #124 #8
PPAExp #67 #6
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #68 #3
F7 HavocF7 #82 #39
DB HavocDB #99 #37
Louisville on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatLOU OffBC Def
Perf GradePerf #55 #126
SuccessSuc #45 #83
ExplosiveExp #87 #127
PPAPPA #82 #114
PowerPwr #57 #70
SP+SP+ #43 #111
Pts POPPO #84 #86
HavocHav #94 #127
Louisville Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
LOU OffBC Def
Run GameRun #8 #126
Run SuccessRSuc #13 #85
Run ExplRExp #27 #106
PPAExp #17 #81
Run BlockR Blk #61 -
OL YdsOLY #85 #54
Stuff RateStuff #123 #46
TackleTak -  #59
Louisville Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatLOU OffBC Def
Pass GamePass #98 #108
Pass SuccessPSuc #75 #72
Pass ExplPExl #130 #127
PPAExp #119 #120
Pass Block/RushP Blk #99 #101
F7 HavocF7 #98 #127
DB HavocDB #89 #104
Program Comparison
LOU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

BC 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Papa John's Cardinal Stadium
Conditions: Overcast
Temp: 57°
Rematch from Week 9
Louisville -25.5 (54.5)
Louisville won vs Boston College this year (38-24)

Previous Matchups
Louisville beat Boston College last year (31-27)
Louisville beat Boston College in 2023 (56-28)
Boston College beat Louisville in 2022 (34-33)

  
BC's OC Will Lawing (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dylan Lonergan (Tr)19028467%20251257.1
Grayson James8715158%1196757.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Turbo Richard14574995.271
Jordan Mcdonald9439744.217
Grayson James546501.220
Bo MacCormack III154312.914
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Lewis Bond891010111.354
Reed Harris39673517.357
Jeremiah Franklin48489210.232
Kaelan Chudzinski24313413.045

View Boston College's Full Roster

BC's DC Tim Lewis (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
KP Price933030
Omar Thornton828211
Carter Davis592102
Owen McGowan545113
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sedarius McConnell318300
Omar Thornton828211
Quintayvious Hutchins364271
Favor Bate (Tr)141122
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Farris280006
Amari Jackson70004
Ashton Cunningham130003

LOU's OC Brian Brohm (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Miller Moss (Tr)24438064%26791677.1
Deuce Adams152171%112005.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Isaac Brown10188478.878
Keyjuan Brown9670467.367
Braxton Jennings3720015.422
Shaun Boykins3719015.126
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Bell72917612.764
Caullin Lacy60635210.648
Dacari Collins (Tr)13219116.836
Jaleel Skinner2120429.733

View Louisville's Full Roster

LOU's DC Ron English (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Quinn958314
D'Angelo Hutchinson843025
JoJo Evans (Tr)643134
Clev Lubin (Tr)5913873
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Clev Lubin (Tr)5913873
Wesley Bailey (Tr)397650
Adonijah Green316440
TJ Quinn958314
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rene Konga295225
D'Angelo Hutchinson843025
TJ Quinn958314