Toledo at Miami (OH) - 2025 Matchup Preview
Toledo logo Toledo Rockets at Miami (OH) RedHawksMiami (OH) logo
Wednesday, November 12th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Yager Stadium - Oxford, OH  (Mid-American)

 
Rockets (2 - 1) (3 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (72 - 40)
Avg Score : 40 - 15 (16 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.6 - 1.4 (#3)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 9)
Our Line: Toledo -18   (SP+ TOL -17)
Projected Score: TOL: 31 - M-OH: 13 (44)
TOL Win prob: 91% | Cover: 49%
TOL Travel: 159 miles
RedHawks (0 - 2) (1 - 1 - 0)
Coach Chuck Martin (64 - 67)
Avg Score : 9 - 31 (9 - 31 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#99)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)
 
Toledo's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Toledo at Kentucky+10.048.5L 16 - 24UY
Sat 9/6 Toledo vs Western Kentucky-8.557.5W 45 - 21OY
Sat 9/13 Toledo vs Morgan State-33.554.5W 60 - 0OY
Sat 9/20 Toledo at Western Michigan-14.051.5
Sat 9/27 Toledo vs Akron-30
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Toledo at Bowling Green-17
Sat 10/18 Toledo vs Kent State-30
Sat 10/25 Toledo at Washington State-13
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/5 Toledo vs Northern Illinois-17
Wed 11/12 Toledo at Miami (OH)-18
Sat 11/22 Toledo vs Ball State-32.5
Sat 11/29 Toledo at Central Michigan-27

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Miami (OH) at Wisconsin+17.540.5L 0 - 17UY
Sat 9/6 Miami (OH) at Rutgers+15.545.5L 17 - 45ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Miami (OH) vs UNLV+2.548.5
Sat 9/27 Miami (OH) vs Lindenwood-11
Sat 10/4 Miami (OH) at Northern Illinois+8
Sat 10/11 Miami (OH) at Akron-4.5
Sat 10/18 Miami (OH) vs Eastern Michigan-8.5
Sat 10/25 Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan-7.5
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/4 Miami (OH) at Ohio+9
Wed 11/12 Miami (OH) vs Toledo+18
Wed 11/19 Miami (OH) at Buffalo+10
Sat 11/29 Miami (OH) vs Ball State-12

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Miami (OH)'s Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL#42 (.3)43% (71)40.345% (63)2.74 (91)20943% (71)2565.11 (28)#12 (-.08)38% (59)1550% (118)25% (7)3.17 (57)78.711.7
M-OH#117 (.07)35% (124)8.538% (104)3.12 (57)7634% (115)1673.4 (101)#104 (.2)51% (129)3151% (124)51% (122)4.43 (102)771.50.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL#111 (.11)41% (95)38% (120)2.66 (121)11144% (46)2273.55 (99)#20 (.09)40% (43)42% (60)38% (35)3.87 (79)46.71.31.3
M-OH#95 (.15)41% (97)38% (119)3.1 (51)12144% (48)2043.43 (108)#38 (.12)44% (92)46% (100)42% (74)2.91 (6)38.61.11.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Offense340.31643.3%5.111234652092565.349%50%45%43%10%.3
M-OH Defense2313150.7%4.430.5 - - - - - 51%48%51%51%12%.2
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Defense3152437.8%3.171.7 - - - - - 52%46%50%25%19%-.08
M-OH Offense28.58.535.4%3.41.510243761673.443%56%38%34%17%.07

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Toledo331:542344%17%978.711.76.31.7129.3
Miami (OH)220:501018%0%7.5771.50.54.53023.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Offense349% (79)45% (63)39.3208.75.38 (26).15 (63)2.74 (91)78% (41)8% (47)0.96 (68)
M-OH Defense251% (86)51% (124) - - - - .21 (109)3.55 (131)79% (105)6% (127)0.85 (48)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Defense352% (91)50% (118) - - - - .1 (87)2.79 (71)63% (43)13% (29)0.74 (23)
M-OH Offense243% (107)38% (104)2275.53.42 (109) (106)3.12 (57)40% (133)11% (103)0.81 (105)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Offense350% (65)43% (71)20.732.72567.812.47 (23)2 (60).47 (31)1.8 (20)33% (99)28% (96).26 (85)2% (12)1.8 (94)
M-OH Defense248% (51)51% (122) - - - - - - 1 (87).25 (81)1.3 (26)28% (116)42% (127).58 (121)6% (66)1.9 (64)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Defense346% (39)25% (7) - - - - - - 2 (56)-.21 (5)1.7 (99)30% (100)16% (14)-.19 (5)6% (73)2.1 (89)
M-OH Offense256% (31)34% (115)11.5201678.414.50 (133)3 (92).2 (93)1.8 (15)33% (95)23% (115).29 (79)6% (91)2.5 (13)

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 11.65 #48
Toledo's Offense Rating: 14.08 #61
Toledo's Defense Rating: 2.43 #42
2025 Talent Rating: 718.00 #71
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #56
Toledo's 2025 Expected Record: 10.6 - 1.4
Toledo's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.3 #60
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.9 #59
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #53

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 11.65   Miami (OH): -9.945

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 4.3   Miami (OH): -12.7




Miami (OH)'s Power Ratings
Miami (OH)'s Power Rating: -9.945 #110
Miami (OH)'s Offense Rating: 2.89 #115
Miami (OH)'s Defense Rating: 15.08 #102
2025 Talent Rating: 674.00 #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
Miami (OH)'s 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Miami (OH)'s 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.7 #115
Miami (OH)'s Offense SP+ Rating: 12.3 #136
Miami (OH)'s Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #58

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Toledo Scoring
Offense: 40.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 16
Defense: 15 PPG
Defense on Road: 24

Toledo's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Toledo 31
Miami (OH) 13


Total Points: 44

Miami (OH) Scoring
Offense: 8.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 8.5
Defense: 31 PPG
Defense at Home: 31

Miami (OH)'s 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/05Toledo30Miami (OH)20ToledoToledo -4.5Toledo44.0Over
202310/21Miami (OH)17Toledo21ToledoToledo -2Toledo46.5Under
202312/02Toledo14Miami (OH)23Miami (OH)Toledo -8.5Miami (OH)46.0Under
201110/22Toledo49Miami (OH)28Toledo
200910/31Miami (OH)31Toledo24Miami (OH)
200811/21Toledo42Miami (OH)14Toledo
200412/02Miami (OH)27Toledo35Toledo
200411/02Miami (OH)23Toledo16Miami (OH)
200210/26Toledo13Miami (OH)27Miami (OH)
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Miami (OH)411 Overs
Toledo522 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 41 - 21 - 10 - 1
Road Teams4 - 52 - 11 - 01 - 1

(#48) Toledo Info
Power Rating: 11.65 #48
Offense Rating: 14.08 #61
Defense Rating: 2.43 #42
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.3 #60
Offense SP+ Rating: 28.9 #59
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #53
Talent Rating: 718.00 #71
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #56
Expected Record: 10.6 - 1.4

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 43%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 5.11 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Bad Pass Success 43%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 38%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.17 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 50%
Great Pass Def Success 25%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Toledo has lost 6 straight
Toledo has lost 4 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

Toledo Notes
(8/20) CB A. Smith a true shutdown & NFL prospect
(7/28) OL 5/5 back. Best in MAC, top 3 in the G5
(7/28) Def added 9 portals, some key pieces at DE/LB
(7/28) Secondary should be really good, great CBs
(7/27) WR Vandeross a weapon, Rudolph (NIU) big add
(5/11) One of CFB's most exp'd OLs, 95% is returning
(3/22) QB Gleason 2nd yr starter. Good, but TO prone
(3/22) RBs Walendzak back, Trayanum (UK) nice add
(3/22) Candle good HC, but drops bad games a lot
(3/22) Class of the MAC TY, OC/DC both vet's.

Toledo Highlights
Toledo is Undefeated vs Spread

Toledo has Really Good Running Game (#28)
Toledo offense is good in red zone (#28)
Toledo defense does not give up big plays (#16)
Toledo has a good pass defense (#7)
Toledo Front 7 is disruptive (#29)

Toledo Deficiencies
Toledo Commits a Lot of Penalties (#129)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatM-OHTOL
OverallOver#112#32
OffenseOff#104#42
DefenseDef#111#25
Special TeamsST#90#82
PassingPass#103#12
RushingRush#97#38
Run BlockRBLK#76#53
Pass BlockPBLK#117#78
Route RunningWR Rt#77#56
TacklingTkl#112#43
Run DefenseR Def#111#22
Pass Rush DefPRush#108#54
Coverage DefCov#114#38

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Miami (OH) last year (30-20)
Miami (OH) beat Toledo in 2023 (23-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Yager Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: TOL | M-OH
Depth Chart: TOL | M-OH
Rosters: TOL | M-OH
(#110) Miami (OH) Info
Power Rating: -9.945 #110
Offense Rating: 2.89 #115
Defense Rating: 15.08 #102
Overall SP+ Rating: -12.7 #115
Offense SP+ Rating: 12.3 #136
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #58
Talent Rating: 674.00 #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 35%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.4 PPO
Poor Run Success 38%
Awful Pass Success 34%
Awful OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Poor DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 51%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.43 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 51%
Awful Pass Def Success 51%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Miami (OH) has lost 9 straight
Miami (OH) has lost 4 straight at Home
Record at home: 0 - 0 (0 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

Miami (OH) Notes
(8/30) Off awful vs Wisky, Finn cannot play? Def good
(7/28) QB Finn + 5 P4 WRs + 3 P4 TEs could be great
(5/11) Least exp'd OL in CFB, and no exp'd portals
(3/26) RB rebuild, Brunson has exp. Some options
(3/26) WR complete rebuild. 5 P4 portal adds
(3/26) OL complete rebuild, 2 w/ lim exp, 3 portals
(3/26) Def good LY, replace a lot. Only 2 portals
(3/26) Martin & staff 20 W's past 2 years. Great job
(3/26) QB Finn was great in MAC, not at Baylor LY

Miami (OH) Highlights
Miami (OH) defense does not give up big plays (#25)

Miami (OH) Deficiencies
Miami (OH) has a really bad Offense
Miami (OH) has a really bad Offense at Home
Miami (OH) Can Not Run the Ball (#135)
Miami (OH) offense is really bad (#124)
Miami (OH) offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#101)
Miami (OH) run game is really bad (#104)
Miami (OH) pass game is really bad (#115)
Miami (OH) offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Miami (OH) has a bad defense (#129)
Miami (OH) Does Not Stuff Runs (#126)
Miami (OH) has a bad defensive line (#131)
Miami (OH) has a bad red zone defense (#102)


  
Toledo's OC Mike Hallett
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tucker Gleason436962%599418.7
John Alan Richter152365%139316.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
DeaMonte Trayanum3924846.475
Kenji Christian (Tr)2313926.033
Willie Shaw III84906.120
Kalieb Osborne74917.017
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Junior Vandeross18255414.271
Javon Brown6133022.246
Jacob Petersen (Tr)582016.426
Trayvon Rudolph (Tr)777011.020

View Toledo's Full Roster
Toledo's DC Vince Kehres
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
K'Von Sherman234100
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren141001
Braden Awls131001
Anthony Dunn100021
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Doran Ray91100
K'Von Sherman234100
Louce Julien (Tr)92110
Jeremiah Peters92100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Andre Fuller70002
Braden Awls131001
Anthony Dunn100021

Miami (OH)'s OC Patrick Welsh
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dequan Finn (Tr)234058%334038.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dequan Finn (Tr)239814.339
Kenny Tracy122802.39
D'Shawntae Jones51913.85
Josh Ringer2402.04
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Keith Reynolds (Tr)7120017.169
Kamryn Perry4108027.062
Cole Weaver444011.020
Lynel Billups-Williams222011.015

View Miami (OH)'s Full Roster
Miami (OH)'s DC Bill Brechin
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Eli Blakey181001
Silas Walters151102
Jackson Kuwatch131110
Adam Trick123211
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Adam Trick123211
Nasir Washington32100
Jackson Kuwatch131110
Bai Jobe (Tr)11100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Silas Walters151102
Kaleb Martin90002
Eli Blakey181001