Toledo at Miami (OH) - 2025 Matchup Preview
Toledo logo Toledo Rockets at Miami (OH) RedHawksMiami (OH) logo
Wednesday, November 12th 2025 (7:00 PM EST)
Toledo -6.5 (44.5) (-240)  Open: -2.5
Toledo 24 - Miami (OH): 3  (Mid-American)

 
Rockets (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (72 - 40)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (17 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Toledo -12  (SP+ TOL -10)
Projected Score: TOL: 29 - M-OH: 17 (45)
TOL Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
TOL Travel: 159 miles
RedHawks (7 - 7) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Chuck Martin (64 - 67)
Avg Score : 24 - 22 (32 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 6.5 (#61)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
Toledo's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Toledo at Kentucky+10.048.5L 16 - 24UY
Sat 9/6 Toledo vs Western Kentucky-8.557.5W 45 - 21OY
Sat 9/13 Toledo vs Morgan State-33.554.5W 60 - 0OY
Sat 9/20 Toledo at Western Michigan-13.548.5L 13 - 14UN
Sat 9/27 Toledo vs Akron-21.550.5W 45 - 3UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Toledo at Bowling Green-10.545.5L 23 - 28ON
Sat 10/18 Toledo vs Kent State-25.548.5W 45 - 10OY
Sat 10/25 Toledo at Washington State-1.544.5L 7 - 28UN
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/5 Toledo vs Northern Illinois-14.542.5W 42 - 3OY
Wed 11/12 Toledo at Miami (OH)-6.544.5W 24 - 3UY
Sat 11/22 Toledo vs Ball State-29.545.5W 38 - 9ON
Sat 11/29 Toledo at Central Michigan-11.546.5W 21 - 3UY
Tue 12/23 Toledo vs Louisville+12.544.5L 22 - 27OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Miami (OH) at Wisconsin+17.540.5L 0 - 17UY
Sat 9/6 Miami (OH) at Rutgers+15.545.5L 17 - 45ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Miami (OH) vs UNLV+2.549.5L 38 - 41ON
Sat 9/27 Miami (OH) vs Lindenwood-22.549.5W 38 - 0UY
Sat 10/4 Miami (OH) at Northern Illinois-4.538.5W 25 - 14OY
Sat 10/11 Miami (OH) at Akron-11.547.5W 20 - 7UY
Sat 10/18 Miami (OH) vs Eastern Michigan-12.547.5W 44 - 30OY
Sat 10/25 Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan-2.540.5W 26 - 17OY
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/4 Miami (OH) at Ohio+2.550.5L 20 - 24UN
Wed 11/12 Miami (OH) vs Toledo+6.544.5L 3 - 24UN
Wed 11/19 Miami (OH) at Buffalo-2.538.5W 37 - 20OY
Sat 11/29 Miami (OH) vs Ball State-16.540.5W 45 - 24OY
Sat 12/6 Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan+2.544.5L 13 - 23UN
Sat 12/27 Miami (OH) vs Fresno State+5.041.0L 3 - 18UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 3, Poor: 0

Predictions for Miami (OH)'s Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL#63 (.18)44% (54)30.843% (70)2.91 (75)16544% (39)2253.86 (55)#2 (-.07)33% (4)13.339% (28)28% (1)2.33 (2)66.91.11.5
M-OH#108 (.1)39% (107)23.543% (82)3.14 (35)14236% (119)1823.34 (105)#29 (.08)39% (37)21.739% (33)40% (51)3.39 (47)46.40.91.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL#111 (.11)41% (95)38% (120)2.66 (121)11144% (46)2273.55 (99)#20 (.09)40% (43)42% (60)38% (35)3.87 (79)46.71.31.3
M-OH#95 (.15)41% (97)38% (119)3.1 (51)12144% (48)2043.43 (108)#38 (.12)44% (92)46% (100)42% (74)2.91 (6)38.61.11.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Offense1330.817.343.6%3.861.120390165225549%49%43%44%13%.18
M-OH Defense1421.722.739.1%3.391.4 - - - - - 49%49%39%40%18%.08
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Defense1313.316.733.2%2.331.5 - - - - - 52%45%39%28%20%-.07
M-OH Offense1423.532.339.1%3.340.9173241421824.352%47%43%36%14%.1

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Toledo1327:5919.641%19%7.566.91.11.56.62.7331.2
Miami (OH)1428:1616.835%46%5.346.40.91.45.52.9331.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Offense1349% (68)43% (70)33.2164.7521 (40).12 (65)2.91 (75)78% (28)9% (54)0.9 (92)
M-OH Defense1449% (56)39% (33) - - - - .05 (43)2.71 (31)73% (85)11% (35)0.92 (49)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Defense1352% (99)39% (28) - - - - (16)2.44 (9)67% (39)13% (7)0.88 (26)
M-OH Offense1452% (49)43% (82)33.3142.24.317 (78).07 (90)3.14 (35)66% (108)7% (15)0.87 (113)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Offense1349% (68)44% (39)18.428.5225.27.912.326 (22)10 (60).28 (54)1.6 (62)32% (72)29% (80).2 (109)4% (10)1.9 (113)
M-OH Defense1449% (79)40% (51) - - - - - - 14 (12).19 (45)1.5 (28)34% (31)28% (47).22 (41)7% (24)2 (59)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Defense1345% (30)28% (1) - - - - - - 13 (55)-.08 (1)1.6 (108)35% (22)19% (1)-.01 (1)7% (17)2.2 (123)
M-OH Offense1447% (89)36% (119)12.624.7182.17.414.417 (86)10 (88).17 (108)1.7 (27)32% (80)28% (94).2 (110)6% (84)1.9 (103)

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 15.08  #32
Toledo's Offense Rating: 10.35  #62
Toledo's Defense Rating: -4.73  #16
2025 Talent Rating: 718.00  #71
Blue Chip Ratio: 4%  #56
Toledo's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Toledo's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.4  #37
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.9  #73
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.9  #17

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 15.08   Miami (OH): -0.28

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 8.4   Miami (OH): -1.6




Miami (OH)'s Power Ratings
Miami (OH)'s Power Rating: -0.28  #86
Miami (OH)'s Offense Rating: 3.22  #106
Miami (OH)'s Defense Rating: 7.18  #63
2025 Talent Rating: 674.00  #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #88
Miami (OH)'s 2025 Expected Record: 7.5 - 6.5
Miami (OH)'s 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.6  #79
Miami (OH)'s Offense SP+ Rating: 22.6  #104
Miami (OH)'s Defense SP+ Rating: 24.9  #53

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.3
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 16.7

Toledo's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Toledo 29
Miami (OH) 17


Total Points: 45

Based on Last 4 Games
Miami (OH) 27
Toledo 22

Total Points: 49

Based on Entire Season
Toledo 23
Miami (OH) 21

Total Points: 44
Miami (OH) Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.3
Defense: 21.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.7

Miami (OH)'s 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 7
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/12Miami (OH)3Toledo24Toledo -6.5Toledo44.5Under
202410/05Toledo30Miami (OH)20Toledo -4.5Toledo44.0Over
202310/21Miami (OH)17Toledo21Toledo -2Toledo46.5Under
202312/02Toledo14Miami (OH)23Toledo -8.5Miami (OH)46.0Under
201110/22Toledo49Miami (OH)28
200910/31Miami (OH)31Toledo24
200811/21Toledo42Miami (OH)14
200412/02Miami (OH)27Toledo35
200411/02Miami (OH)23Toledo16
200210/26Toledo13Miami (OH)27
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Miami (OH)411 Overs
Toledo633 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 51 - 31 - 10 - 2
Road Teams5 - 53 - 12 - 01 - 1

(#32) TOL at (#86) M-OH
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTOLM-OH
Power RatePwr #32 #86
SP+SP+ #37 #79
Perf GradeGrade #11 #43
OffenseOff #34 #69
DefenseDef #5 #33
Spec TeamsST #23 #34
TalentTal #71 #81
Blue ChipsBC% #56 #88
Toledo Notes
(12/11) HC Candle left for UConn? Very odd move
(12/11) Hired HC Mike Jacobs (Mercer). Pot. big upgrade
(11/13) Beat M-OH w/ QB2, not impressive. 3 TOs, 313 yds
(10/31) Killed by Wazzu in bad spot, Run Off awful 61 yds
(10/31) 8-4 best possible finish & must win @ Mia OH
(10/12) Blew another vs BG, OG'd BG by 200 yds & still lost
(10/12) Penalties, turnovers & awful coaching killing Toledo
(9/24) Gleason/Off disappointing. Penalty issues hurting
(9/20) Yearly awful L vs 0-3 WMU, Gleason 89 yds, 2 INT
(8/30) Run Off terrible, Run Def bad in L to UK
(8/20) CB A. Smith a true shutdown & NFL prospect
(7/28) OL 5/5 back. Best in MAC, top 3 in the G5
Toledo Injury Report
Miami (OH) Notes
(11/29) Beat Ball St to make the MAC title game vs WMU
(11/20) QB Thomas Gotkowski better option in W vs Buff
(11/20) Beat Buff due to 3 TOs, even BS. Pass Def torched
(11/14) QB Dequan Finn quit the team.
(11/13) QB2 Hesson cannot play. 11/38 w/ 3 INT vs Tol
(11/4) Can't trust Dequan Finn. Will find a way to lose
(10/31) #2 Off in MAC, best OL, Avg DL, QB Finn meh
(10/31) 5-1 outside of paycheck games, L to UNLV by 3
(10/19) 3-0 in MAC play, undefeated after paycheck games
(10/19) Run heavy Off, QB Finn not good, Def inconsistent
(9/21) Nearly beat UNLV, OG'd 513-396. 1-8 on 3rd down
(8/30) Off awful vs Wisky, Finn cannot play? Def good
Miami (OH) Injury Report
Toledo on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
TOL OffM-OH Def
Perf GradePerf #34 #33
SuccessSuc #54 #37
ExplosiveExp #77 #32
PPAPPA #63 #29
PowerPwr #62 #63
SP+SP+ #73 #53
Pts POPPO #55 #47
HavocHav #23 #26
Toledo Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
TOL OffM-OH Def
Run GameRun #54 #84
Run SuccessRSuc #70 #33
Run ExplRExp #92 #49
PPAExp #65 #43
Run BlockR Blk #59 -
OL YdsOLY #75 #31
Stuff RateStuff #85 #48
TackleTak -  #83
Toledo Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
TOL OffM-OH Def
Pass GamePass #7 #42
Pass SuccessPSuc #39 #51
Pass ExplPExl #62 #28
PPAExp #54 #45
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #100 #5
F7 HavocF7 #54 #35
DB HavocDB #10 #24
Miami (OH) on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatM-OH OffTOL Def
Perf GradePerf #69 #5
SuccessSuc #107 #4
ExplosiveExp #88 #21
PPAPPA #108 #2
PowerPwr #106 #16
SP+SP+ #104 #17
Pts POPPO #105 #2
HavocHav #38 #6
Miami (OH) Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
M-OH OffTOL Def
Run GameRun #100 #16
Run SuccessRSuc #82 #28
Run ExplRExp #113 #26
PPAExp #90 #16
Run BlockR Blk #51 -
OL YdsOLY #35 #9
Stuff RateStuff #48 #28
TackleTak -  #36
Miami (OH) Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatM-OH OffTOL Def
Pass GamePass #67 #4
Pass SuccessPSuc #119 #1
Pass ExplPExl #27 #108
PPAExp #108 #1
Pass Block/RushP Blk #120 #6
F7 HavocF7 #15 #7
DB HavocDB #84 #17
Program Comparison
M-OH 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

TOL 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Yager Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 44° - Wind: 6 mph
Rematch from Week 12
Toledo 6.5 (44.5)
Toledo won at Miami (OH) this year (24-3)

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Miami (OH) last year (30-20)
Miami (OH) beat Toledo in 2023 (23-14)

  
TOL's OC Mike Hallett (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tucker Gleason20732065%25152197.9
Kalieb Osborne325262%427308.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
DeaMonte Trayanum1821015125.675
Kenji Christian (Tr)10552845.037
Kalieb Osborne5128225.533
Tucker Gleason4614443.135
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Junior Vandeross8210081112.371
Trayvon Rudolph (Tr)39435211.258
Jacob Petersen (Tr)25335313.428
DeaMonte Trayanum21212210.157

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
K'Von Sherman9315561
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren776136
Chris D'Appolonia594124
Andre Fuller4930010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Martez Poynter4310790
Malachi Davis3510681
K'Von Sherman9315561
Jeremiah Peters246432
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Avery Smith4250010
Andre Fuller4930010
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren776136

M-OH's OC Patrick Welsh (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dequan Finn (Tr)10618159%1451968.0
Henry Hesson399840%596436.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Brunson16476744.760
Dequan Finn (Tr)8939544.439
D'Shawntae Jones6327774.446
Kenny Tracy4927215.621
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kamryn Perry43976622.766
Cole Weaver45642114.336
Keith Reynolds (Tr)3635219.869
Deion Colzie (Tr)11178116.244

View Miami (OH)'s Full Roster

M-OH's DC Bill Brechin (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Eli Blakey1185138
Jackson Kuwatch10110511
Corban Hondru847372
Silas Walters713107
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Adam Trick57128124
Jackson Kuwatch10110511
Nasir Washington176410
Bai Jobe (Tr)154440
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Eli Blakey1185138
Silas Walters713107
Kaleb Martin310007