Toledo at Kentucky Game Matchup
Toledo logo Toledo Rockets at Kentucky WildcatsKentucky logo
Friday, August 29th 2025 (4:00 PM EDT)
Kentucky -11.5 (0.0) (0)  Open: -12.5
Commonwealth Stadium - Lexington, KY

 
Rockets (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (72 - 40)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (22 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.6 - 2.4 (#12)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 11)
Our Line: Kentucky -9   (SP+ UK -6)
Projected Score: TOL: 18 - UK: 27 (47)
UK Win prob: 77% | Cover: 45%
TOL Travel: 256 miles
Wildcats (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (77 - 73)
Avg Score : 21 - 22 (22 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.6 - 7.4 (#107)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 6) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
 
Toledo's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Toledo at Kentucky+11.50.0
Sat 9/6 Toledo vs Western Kentucky-13
Sat 9/13 Toledo vs Morgan State-22
Sat 9/20 Toledo at Western Michigan-13.5
Sat 9/27 Toledo vs Akron-20.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Toledo at Bowling Green-9.5
Sat 10/18 Toledo vs Kent State-27.5
Sat 10/25 Toledo at Washington State-6
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/5 Toledo vs Northern Illinois-12
Wed 11/12 Toledo at Miami (OH)-7.5
Sat 11/22 Toledo vs Ball State-23.5
Sat 11/29 Toledo at Central Michigan-9.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 10
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 10
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule
Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Kentucky vs Toledo-11.50.0
Sat 9/6 Kentucky vs Ole Miss+10.5
Sat 9/13 Kentucky vs Eastern Michigan-22
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Kentucky at South Carolina+13.5
Sat 10/4 Kentucky at Georgia+25
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Kentucky vs Texas+21
Sat 10/25 Kentucky vs Tennessee+9.5
Sat 11/1 Kentucky at Auburn+14.5
Sat 11/8 Kentucky vs Florida+12
Sat 11/15 Kentucky vs Tennessee Tech-28.5
Sat 11/22 Kentucky at Vanderbilt+2.5
Sat 11/29 Kentucky at Louisville+9.5

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 6, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL#111 (.11)41% (95)28.338% (120)2.66 (121)11144% (46)2273.55 (99)#20 (.09)40% (43)23.242% (60)38% (35)3.87 (79)46.71.31.3
UK#118 (.09)41% (89)20.647% (31)3.02 (71)14635% (123)1853.49 (104)#62 (.16)46% (111)22.149% (122)42% (75)3.44 (31)52.11.91.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UK0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Offense1328.322.240.8%3.551.3183391112273.546%53%38%44%16%.11
UK Defense1222.117.646%3.441.3 - - - - - 58%42%49%42%17%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Defense1323.221.339.8%3.871.3 - - - - - 52%48%42%38%19%.09
UK Offense1220.621.941.5%3.491.919331146185454%46%47%35%19%.09

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Toledo1325:0618.436%50%5.446.71.31.36.22.1231.4
Kentucky1229:3219.434%44%6.352.11.91.35.61.8227
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Offense1346% (96)38% (120)31.5111.33.512 (114)-.04 (127)2.66 (121)57% (130)10% (74)0.83 (125)
UK Defense1258% (129)49% (122) - - - - .14 (75)3 (67)78% (101)12% (32)0.88 (24)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Defense1352% (83)42% (60) - - - - .11 (66)3.01 (69)77% (89)12% (31)0.95 (48)
UK Offense1254% (37)47% (31)36.7146.4411 (116).05 (107)3.02 (71)73% (71)13% (120)0.73 (133)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Offense1353% (41)44% (46)19.231227.27.311.826 (26)7 (26).26 (67)1.6 (61)31% (65)27% (108).18 (115)6% (76)2 (68)
UK Defense1242% (7)42% (75) - - - - - - 10 (66).19 (46)1.5 (27)29% (109)31% (83).3 (68)5% (95)2 (61)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Defense1348% (51)38% (35) - - - - - - 10 (66).08 (11)1.5 (29)34% (38)29% (39).22 (34)7% (35)2 (43)
UK Offense1246% (97)35% (123)13.926184.87.113.315 (98)17 (127).13 (117)1.9 (10)33% (92)28% (104).18 (114)7% (103)2.1 (46)

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: -1.41 #68
Toledo's Offense Rating: 13.54 #72
Toledo's Defense Rating: 14.95 #68
2025 Talent Rating: 678.00 #76
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #62
Toledo's 2025 Expected Record: 9.6 - 2.4
Toledo's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.4 #71
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #77
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #63

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 528.62
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo: -1.41   Kentucky: 7.62

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: -1.4   Kentucky: 4.7




Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 7.62 #52
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 16.20 #54
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 10.66 #43
2025 Talent Rating: 876.00 #25
Blue Chip Ratio: 26 #22
Kentucky's 2025 Expected Record: 4.6 - 7.4
Kentucky's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.7 #43
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #79
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #31

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 944.88
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29


Toledo Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.2
Defense: 23.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.3

Toledo's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Kentucky 27
Toledo 18

Projected Total Points: 47
Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 20.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.9
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.6

Kentucky's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
201908/31Kentucky38Toledo24KentuckyKentucky -9.5Kentucky60.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Kentucky111 Overs
Toledo000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#68) Toledo Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -1.41 #68
Offense Rating: 13.54 #72
Defense Rating: 14.95 #68
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.4 #71
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #77
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #63
Talent Rating: 678.00 #76
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #62
Expected Record: 9.6 - 2.4

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.55 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Avg Pass Success 44%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 40%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.87 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 42%
Good Pass Def Success 38%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Toledo Notes
(5/11) One of CFB's most exp'd OLs, 95% is returning
(5/2) WR Vandeross a weapon, have decent depth
(3/22) QB Gleason 2nd yr starter. Good, but TO prone
(3/22) RBs Walendzak back, Trayanum (UK) nice add
(3/22) OL 5/5 back. Poss best G5 line, best MAC
(3/22) Candle good HC, but drops bad games a lot
(3/22) Class of the MAC TY, OC/DC both vet's.
Toledo     Ratings Matchup     Kentucky
Power #68
#52
Off #72
#54
Def #68
#43
Talent #76
#25
SP+ #71
#43
SP+ Off #77
#79
SP+ Def #63
#31

Weather Forecast
Playing in Commonwealth Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: TOL | UK
Depth Chart: TOL | UK
Rosters: TOL | UK
(#52) Kentucky Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 7.62 #52
Offense Rating: 16.20 #54
Defense Rating: 10.66 #43
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.7 #43
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #79
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #31
Talent Rating: 876.00 #25
Blue Chip Ratio: 26 #22
Expected Record: 4.6 - 7.4

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.49 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Awful Pass Success 35%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Good in Scoring Position 3.44 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 49%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Kentucky Notes
(5/5) UK 2-10 run in SEC home games & 0-7 streak
(4/4) OG Joshua Braun a top G via PFF
(3/24) Portal DL Gusta (WSU)/Grace (S Dak) big
(3/22) Added 13 players that started LY via portal
(3/18) Portal QB Calzada (Inc Word/A&M) can sling
(3/18) RBs Wilcox good, Dowdell (Neb) added
(3/18) WR rebuild, bad LY. 4 Portals. Big jump TY?
(3/18) OL rebuild 1/5 back, 5 portal adds. No clue
(3/18) Def good LY, new DE's. DB's OK LY, better TY?
(3/18) Tons of new faces, portals. Awful QB play LY


  
Toledo's OC Mike Hallett
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tucker Gleason20733562%24572277.3
John Alan Richter436764%497407.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Connor Walendzak12245713.732
Tucker Gleason8833063.835
Willie Shaw III4619034.113
Trayvon Rudolph (Tr)14179212.860
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Junior Vandeross73763410.573
Trayvon Rudolph (Tr)37403110.948
Thomas Zsiros12148112.325
Eric Holley1412609.040

View Toledo's Full Roster
Toledo's DC Vince Kehres
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Braden Awls673107
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren612104
Avery Smith5010013
Louce Julien (Tr)437411
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Anthony Dunn257420
Louce Julien (Tr)437411
Malachi Davis194210
Esean Carter162100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Avery Smith5010013
Braden Awls673107
Nasir Bowers352004

Kentucky's OC Bush Hamdan
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Zach Calzada (Tr)31247166%34323297.3
Cutter Boley265349%338246.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Seth McGowan (Tr)15381335.338
Dante Dowdell (Tr)143614124.338
Jamarion Wilcox9259026.450
Zach Calzada (Tr)8323052.833
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Javian Hester14315122.590
Jay Maclin13313424.183
Seth McGowan (Tr)23277312.043
Troy Stellato (Tr)26266110.234

View Kentucky's Full Roster
Kentucky's DC Brad White
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Landyn Watson (Tr)664030
Jordan Lovett631001
Alex Afari Jr.6211211
J.Q. Hardaway470003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kameron Olds (Tr)427621
Alex Afari Jr.6211211
Sam Greene (Tr)153120
David Gusta (Tr)203163
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Terhyon Nichols100005
David Gusta (Tr)203163
J.Q. Hardaway470003