Toledo at Kentucky - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, August 30th 2025 (12:45 PM EDT)
Kentucky -10 (48.5) (-345) Open: -10.0 | 48.5
Kentucky 24 - Toledo: 16

Rockets (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (72 - 40)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (17 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 11)

Our Line: Toledo -6.5 (SP+ TOL -6.5)
Projected Score: TOL: 27 - UK: 21 (48)
UK Win prob: 77% | Cover: 50%
TOL Travel: 256 miles

Wildcats (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (77 - 73)
Avg Score : 23 - 26 (32 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 7) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)

Matchup
Schedules
TOL Players
UK Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Toledo's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Toledo at Kentucky	+10.0	48.5	L 16 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Toledo vs Western Kentucky	-8.5	57.5	W 45 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Toledo vs Morgan State	-33.5	54.5	W 60 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Toledo at Western Michigan	-13.5	48.5	L 13 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/27	Toledo vs Akron	-21.5	50.5	W 45 - 3	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Toledo at Bowling Green	-10.5	45.5	L 23 - 28	O	N
Sat 10/18	Toledo vs Kent State	-25.5	48.5	W 45 - 10	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Toledo at Washington State	-1.5	44.5	L 7 - 28	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/5	Toledo vs Northern Illinois	-14.5	42.5	W 42 - 3	O	Y
Wed 11/12	Toledo at Miami (OH)	-6.5	44.5	W 24 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Toledo vs Ball State	-29.5	45.5	W 38 - 9	O	N
Sat 11/29	Toledo at Central Michigan	-11.5	46.5	W 21 - 3	U	Y
Tue 12/23	Toledo vs Louisville	+12.5	44.5	L 22 - 27	O	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 9
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 9
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule

Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Kentucky vs Toledo	-10.0	48.5	W 24 - 16	U	N
Sat 9/6	Kentucky vs Ole Miss	+8.0	51.5	L 23 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Kentucky vs Eastern Michigan	-26.5	49.5	W 48 - 23	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	Kentucky at South Carolina	+5.5	46.5	L 13 - 35	O	N
Sat 10/4	Kentucky at Georgia	+19.5	48.5	L 14 - 35	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18	Kentucky vs Texas	+12.5	45.5	L 13 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/25	Kentucky vs Tennessee	+7.5	55.5	L 34 - 56	O	N
Sat 11/1	Kentucky at Auburn	+11.5	44.5	W 10 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/8	Kentucky vs Florida	+4.5	44.5	W 38 - 7	O	Y
Sat 11/15	Kentucky vs Tennessee Tech	-22.5	52.5	W 42 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Kentucky at Vanderbilt	+7.0	53.5	L 17 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/29	Kentucky at Louisville	+1.0	45.5	L 0 - 41	U	N

Total: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL	#63 (.18)	44% (54)	30.8	43% (70)	2.91 (75)	165	44% (39)	225	3.86 (55)	#2 (-.07)	33% (4)	13.3	39% (28)	28% (1)	2.33 (2)	66.9	1.1	1.5
UK	#116 (.08)	42% (79)	23	45% (53)	3.05 (50)	139	40% (96)	202	3.84 (57)	#84 (.18)	44% (96)	26.4	44% (83)	45% (110)	3.98 (99)	41	1.8	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL	#111 (.11)	41% (95)		38% (120)	2.66 (121)	111	44% (46)	227	3.55 (99)	#20 (.09)	40% (43)		42% (60)	38% (35)	3.87 (79)	46.7	1.3	1.3
UK	#118 (.09)	41% (89)		47% (31)	3.02 (71)	146	35% (123)	185	3.49 (104)	#62 (.16)	46% (111)		49% (122)	42% (75)	3.44 (31)	52.1	1.9	1.3

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Offense	13	30.8	17.3	43.6%	3.86	1.1	20	390	165	225	5	49%	49%	43%	44%	13%	.18
UK Defense	12	26.4	22.6	43.7%	3.98	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	52%	46%	44%	45%	15%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Defense	13	13.3	16.7	33.2%	2.33	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	52%	45%	39%	28%	20%	-.07
UK Offense	12	23	31.7	41.6%	3.84	1.8	20	341	139	202	3.9	51%	47%	45%	40%	18%	.08

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Toledo	13	27:59	19.6	41%	19%	7.5	66.9	1.1	1.5	6.6	2.7	3	31.2
Kentucky	12	30:38	19.7	40%	52%	4.9	41	1.8	1.2	5.8	2.1	0	29.6

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Offense	13	49% (68)	43% (70)	33.2	164.7	5	21 (40)	.12 (65)	2.91 (75)	78% (28)	9% (54)	0.9 (92)
UK Defense	12	52% (97)	44% (83)	-	-	-	-	.09 (63)	2.89 (71)	68% (45)	10% (57)	0.9 (41)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Defense	13	52% (99)	39% (28)	-	-	-	-	(16)	2.44 (9)	67% (39)	13% (7)	0.88 (26)
UK Offense	12	51% (52)	45% (53)	35.9	139.3	3.9	19 (70)	.06 (98)	3.05 (50)	70% (85)	11% (112)	0.82 (123)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Offense	13	49% (68)	44% (39)	18.4	28.5	225.2	7.9	12.3	26 (22)	10 (60)	.28 (54)	1.6 (62)	32% (72)	29% (80)	.2 (109)	4% (10)	1.9 (113)
UK Defense	12	46% (36)	45% (110)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (38)	.31 (99)	1.5 (65)	30% (91)	31% (83)	.31 (76)	5% (110)	2 (55)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Defense	13	45% (30)	28% (1)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (55)	-.08 (1)	1.6 (108)	35% (22)	19% (1)	-.01 (1)	7% (17)	2.2 (123)
UK Offense	12	47% (85)	40% (96)	19.1	30.6	201.9	6.6	10.6	15 (128)	14 (60)	.19 (101)	1.6 (59)	31% (63)	26% (111)	.02 (134)	7% (94)	1.7 (131)

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 15.08 #32
Toledo's Offense Rating: 10.35 #62
Toledo's Defense Rating: -4.73 #16
2025 Talent Rating: 718.00 #71
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #56
Toledo's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Toledo's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.4 #37
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.9 #73
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.9 #17

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 15.08 Kentucky: 5.42

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 8.4 Kentucky: 1.8

Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 5.42 #56
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 9.52 #65
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 5.48 #49
2025 Talent Rating: 896.00 #26
Blue Chip Ratio: 25 #23
Kentucky's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Kentucky's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.8 #63
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.0 #78
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #48

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.3
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 16.7

Toledo's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Toledo 27
Kentucky 21

Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
Kentucky 25
Toledo 23

Total Points: 48

Based on Entire Season
Toledo 25
Kentucky 21

Total Points: 46

Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.7
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.6

Kentucky's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	08/30	Kentucky	24	Toledo	16	Kentucky -10	Toledo	48.5	Under
2019	08/31	Kentucky	38	Toledo	24	Kentucky -9.5	Kentucky	60.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Kentucky	2	1	1 Overs
Toledo	0	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 0	1 - 1

(#32) TOL at (#56) UK

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TOL	UK
Power RatePwr	#32	#56
SP+SP+	#37	#63
Perf GradeGrade	#11	#70
OffenseOff	#34	#91
DefenseDef	#5	#38
Spec TeamsST	#23	#87
TalentTal	#71	#26
Blue ChipsBC%	#56	#23

Toledo Notes(12/11) HC Candle left for UConn? Very odd move
(12/11) Hired HC Mike Jacobs (Mercer). Pot. big upgrade
(11/13) Beat M-OH w/ QB2, not impressive. 3 TOs, 313 yds
(10/31) Killed by Wazzu in bad spot, Run Off awful 61 yds
(10/31) 8-4 best possible finish & must win @ Mia OH
(10/12) Blew another vs BG, OG'd BG by 200 yds & still lost
(10/12) Penalties, turnovers & awful coaching killing Toledo
(9/24) Gleason/Off disappointing. Penalty issues hurting
(9/20) Yearly awful L vs 0-3 WMU, Gleason 89 yds, 2 INT
(8/30) Run Off terrible, Run Def bad in L to UK
(8/20) CB A. Smith a true shutdown & NFL prospect
(7/28) OL 5/5 back. Best in MAC, top 3 in the G5
Toledo Injury Report

Kentucky Notes(12/16) Bateman is a terrible DC. Lost play calling
(12/15) Finish 2 game L streak, Def fell apart. Stoops fired
(12/12) Hired DC Jay Bateman, was DC a Tex A&M
(12/4) Hired Joe Sloan at OC, was at LSU under BK
(12/1) Hired Oregon OC Will Stein, who played at L'ville
(11/30) Stoops fired after 5-7 season and L'ville blowout
(11/9) 2 game win streak, killed Gators. Could bowl?
(11/5) No P4 home wins since Sept '23, 4-19 overall
(11/1) Great W @ Aub. Ugly game, Def played great
(10/23) Now 1-12 vs P4 teams since start of '24
(10/18) OG'd UT 395 - 179 and lost?! QB Boley looked decent
(10/5) Now 1-11 in last 12 SEC games post UGA game
Kentucky Injury Report

Toledo on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	UK Def
Perf GradePerf	#34	#38
SuccessSuc	#54	#96
ExplosiveExp	#77	#57
PPAPPA	#63	#84
PowerPwr	#62	#49
SP+SP+	#73	#48
Pts POPPO	#55	#99
HavocHav	#23	#91

Toledo Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	UK Def
Run GameRun	#54	#28
Run SuccessRSuc	#70	#83
Run ExplRExp	#92	#41
PPAExp	#65	#63
Run BlockR Blk	#59	-
OL YdsOLY	#75	#71
Stuff RateStuff	#85	#53
TackleTak	-	#38

Toledo Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	UK Def
Pass GamePass	#7	#108
Pass SuccessPSuc	#39	#110
Pass ExplPExl	#62	#65
PPAExp	#54	#99
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#100	#10
F7 HavocF7	#54	#57
DB HavocDB	#10	#110

Kentucky on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	UK Off	TOL Def
Perf GradePerf	#91	#5
SuccessSuc	#79	#4
ExplosiveExp	#126	#21
PPAPPA	#116	#2
PowerPwr	#65	#16
SP+SP+	#78	#17
Pts POPPO	#57	#2
HavocHav	#110	#6

Kentucky Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	UK Off	TOL Def
Run GameRun	#88	#16
Run SuccessRSuc	#53	#28
Run ExplRExp	#123	#26
PPAExp	#98	#16
Run BlockR Blk	#50	-
OL YdsOLY	#50	#9
Stuff RateStuff	#52	#28
TackleTak	-	#36

Kentucky Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	UK Off	TOL Def
Pass GamePass	#120	#4
Pass SuccessPSuc	#96	#1
Pass ExplPExl	#59	#108
PPAExp	#101	#1
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#48	#6
F7 HavocF7	#112	#7
DB HavocDB	#94	#17

Program Comparison
UK 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

TOL 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Commonwealth Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 72° - Wind: 9 mph

Rematch from Week 1
Kentucky -10.0 (48.5)
Kentucky won vs Toledo this year (24-16)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

TOL's OC Mike Hallett (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tucker Gleason	207	320	65%	2515	21	9	7.9
Kalieb Osborne	32	52	62%	427	3	0	8.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
DeaMonte Trayanum	182	1015	12	5.6	75
Kenji Christian (Tr)	105	528	4	5.0	37
Kalieb Osborne	51	282	2	5.5	33
Tucker Gleason	46	144	4	3.1	35

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Junior Vandeross	82	1008	11	12.3	71
Trayvon Rudolph (Tr)	39	435	2	11.2	58
Jacob Petersen (Tr)	25	335	3	13.4	28
DeaMonte Trayanum	21	212	2	10.1	57

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
K'Von Sherman	93	15	5	6	1
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren	77	6	1	3	6
Chris D'Appolonia	59	4	1	2	4
Andre Fuller	49	3	0	0	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Martez Poynter	43	10	7	9	0
Malachi Davis	35	10	6	8	1
K'Von Sherman	93	15	5	6	1
Jeremiah Peters	24	6	4	3	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Avery Smith	42	5	0	0	10
Andre Fuller	49	3	0	0	10
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren	77	6	1	3	6

UK's OC Bush Hamdan (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Cutter Boley	198	301	66%	2160	15	12	7.2
Zach Calzada (Tr)	28	58	48%	238	0	2	4.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Seth McGowan (Tr)	165	725	12	4.4	20
Dante Dowdell (Tr)	112	560	3	5.0	79
Jason Patterson	57	225	1	3.9	29
Cutter Boley	66	85	2	1.3	30

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kendrick Law (Tr)	53	540	3	10.2	71
Hardley Gilmore IV (Tr)	28	313	1	11.2	45
Willie Rodriguez	23	310	1	13.5	53
Josh Kattus	17	195	2	11.5	34

View Kentucky's Full Roster

UK's DC Brad White (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ty Bryant	76	2	0	0	1
Daveren Rayner	69	7	2	2	4
Alex Afari Jr.	61	7	3	6	1
J.Q. Hardaway	58	2	1	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Steven Soles Jr.	11	5	4	3	2
Mi'Quise Grace (Tr)	31	7	4	6	2
Lorenzo Cowan (Tr)	13	5	3	0	0
Tavion Gadson	28	4	3	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
J.Q. Hardaway	58	2	1	0	5
Daveren Rayner	69	7	2	2	4
Terhyon Nichols	18	1	0	2	4