Liberty at Toledo - 2022 Matchup Preview

Tuesday, December 20th 2022 (7:30 PM EST)
Toledo -4 (51.5) (160) Open: -1.5 | 54.0
Toledo 21 - Liberty: 19 (RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl)

Flames (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Hugh Freeze (26 - 11)
Avg Score : 26 - 27 (20 - 26 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: -1 (SP+ LIB -2)
Projected Score: LIB: 17 - TOL: 32 (49)
TOL Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
LIB Travel: 760 miles

Rockets (9 - 5) (5 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (45 - 27)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (46 - 8 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
LIB Players
TOL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Liberty's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Liberty at Southern Miss	-3.5	50.0	W 29 - 27	O	N
Sat 9/10	Liberty vs UAB	+6.0	50.0	W 21 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/17	Liberty at Wake Forest	+17.5	64.0	L 36 - 37	O	Y
Sat 9/24	Liberty vs Akron	-26.5	52.5	W 21 - 12	U	N
Sat 10/1	Liberty at Old Dominion	-3.5	48.0	W 38 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/8	Liberty at Massachusetts	-22.5	45.5	W 42 - 24	O	N
Sat 10/15	Liberty vs Gardner-Webb	-24.5	55.0	W 21 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/22	Liberty vs BYU	+7.0	58.0	W 41 - 14	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/5	Liberty at Arkansas	+14.5	61.5	W 21 - 19	U	Y
Sat 11/12	Liberty at UConn	-13.5	45.0	L 33 - 36	O	N
Sat 11/19	Liberty vs Virginia Tech	-10.5	46.0	L 22 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/26	Liberty vs New Mexico State	-24.0	51.0	L 14 - 49	O	N
Tue 12/20	Liberty vs Toledo	+4.0	51.5	L 19 - 21	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Liberty's Schedule

Toledo's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/1	Toledo vs Long Island University	-47.5	57.0	W 37 - 0	U	N
Sat 9/10	Toledo vs Massachusetts	-28.0	49.0	W 55 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/17	Toledo at Ohio State	+34.5	63.0	L 21 - 77	O	N
Sat 9/24	Toledo at San Diego State	-2.5	44.5	L 14 - 17	U	N
Sat 10/1	Toledo vs Central Michigan	-6.5	56.0	W 38 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/8	Toledo at Northern Illinois	-6.5	59.0	W 52 - 32	O	Y
Sat 10/15	Toledo vs Kent State	-7.0	62.5	W 52 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/22	Toledo at Buffalo	-7.0	56.0	L 27 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/29	Toledo at Eastern Michigan	-4.0	54.0	W 27 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/8	Toledo vs Ball State	-11.0	50.0	W 28 - 21	U	N
Tue 11/15	Toledo vs Bowling Green	-14.5	47.0	L 35 - 42	O	N
Fri 11/25	Toledo at Western Michigan	-8.5	50.5	L 14 - 20	U	N
Sat 12/3	Toledo vs Ohio	-3.5	54.5	W 17 - 7	U	Y
Tue 12/20	Toledo vs Liberty	-4.0	51.5	W 21 - 19	U	N

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LIB	.29	45%	25.6	52%	3.72	181	39%	255	4.57	.13	41%	26.5	44%	38%	3.62	66.5	1.7	0.8
TOL	.29	40%	30.8	45%	3.5	196	36%	239	4.04	.09	36%	13.3	36%	37%	3.22	90.2	0.5	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LIB		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TOL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LIB Offense	13	25.6	19.7	45.4%	4.57	1.7	23	436	181	255	4.6	48%	51%	52%	39%	17%	.29
TOL Defense	13	13.3	7.7	36.2%	3.22	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	36%	37%	20%	.09

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LIB Defense	13	26.5	25.7	41.1%	3.62	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	44%	38%	18%	.13
TOL Offense	13	30.8	45.8	40.2%	4.04	0.5	21	435	196	239	5.4	49%	51%	45%	36%	17%	.29

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Liberty	13	30:19	22.6	43%	43%	7.1	66.5	1.7	0.8	7.5	2.8	2	28.5
Toledo	13	28:20	20.8	35%	43%	10	90.2	0.5	1.5	6.8	2.9	5	29.4

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LIB Offense	13	48%	52%	39.1	180.8	4.6	26	.35	3.72	79%	11%	1.11
TOL Defense	13	52%	36%	-	-	-	-	.07	3.07	63%	12%	1.07

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LIB Defense	13	56%	44%	-	-	-	-	.13	3.17	75%	12%	0.87
TOL Offense	13	49%	45%	36.3	196.4	5.4	29	.35	3.5	77%	11%	1.33

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LIB Offense	13	51%	39%	17.4	29.3	255	8.7	14.7	33	15	.25	1.7	30%	32%	.31	6%	2.1
TOL Defense	13	48%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.18	1.6	35%	27%	.24	8%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LIB Defense	13	43%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.16	1.5	31%	29%	.26	6%	1.9
TOL Offense	13	51%	36%	17.4	30	239.1	8	13.8	22	3	.24	1.8	36%	25%	.27	6%	2.3

Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: NR
Liberty's Offense Rating: NR
Liberty's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #146
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Liberty's 2022 Expected Record: -
Liberty's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.5 #73
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #83
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #57

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Liberty: Toledo: -1.85

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Liberty: -1.5 Toledo: -3.7

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: -1.85 NR
Toledo's Offense Rating: NR
Toledo's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #80
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Toledo's 2022 Expected Record: -
Toledo's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.7 #82
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #68
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #69

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Liberty Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.7
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.7

Liberty's 2022 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Toledo 32
Liberty 17

Projected Total Points: 49

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 45.8
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 7.7

Toledo's 2022 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 5 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2022	12/20	Toledo	21	Liberty	19	Toledo -4	Liberty	51.5	Under
2007	10/06	Toledo	35	Liberty	34
2003	09/06	Toledo	49	Liberty	3

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Toledo	3	0	0 Overs
Liberty	0	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 3	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

Liberty Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2022	Raton Bowl	Liberty vs Toledo	+4.0	51.5	L 19 - 21
2021	Lendingtree Bowl	Liberty vs Eastern Michigan	-9.5	58.5	W 56 - 20
2020	Cure Bowl	Liberty vs Coastal Carolina	+6.5	60.0	W 37 - 34
2019	Cure Bowl	Liberty vs Georgia Southern	+5.0	59.0	W 23 - 16

Toledo Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2022	Raton Bowl	Toledo vs Liberty	-4.0	51.5	W 21 - 19
2021	Bahamas Bowl	Toledo vs Middle Tennessee	-10.0	50.0	L 24 - 31
2018	Bahamas Bowl	Toledo vs Florida International	-7.0	57.5	L 32 - 35
2017	General Bowl	Toledo vs App State	-6.0	61.5	L 0 - 34
2016	Camellia Bowl	Toledo vs App State	-2.5	60.0	L 28 - 31

(#) LIB at (#) TOL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	LIB	TOL
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#73	#82
Perf GradeGrade	#81	#47
OffenseOff	#95	#81
DefenseDef	#72	#5
Spec TeamsST	#4	#135
TalentTal	#146	#80
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Liberty Injury Report

Toledo Injury Report

Liberty on Offense


CategoryCat	LIB Off	TOL Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#95	#5
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#83	#69
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Liberty Run Game


CategoryCat	LIB Off	TOL Def
Run GameRun	#99	#8
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#78	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#26

Liberty Pass Game


CategoryCat	LIB Off	TOL Def
Pass GamePass	#125	#6
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#21	#21
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Toledo on Offense


CategoryCat	TOL Off	LIB Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#81	#72
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#68	#57
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Toledo Run Game


CategoryCat	TOL Off	LIB Def
Run GameRun	#100	#66
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#81	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#117

Toledo Pass Game


CategoryCat	TOL Off	LIB Def
Pass GamePass	#64	#71
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#120	#86
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
TOL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'22 Profile: Down to Average G5

LIB 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'22 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in FAU Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Toledo -4.0 (51.5)
Toledo won vs Liberty this year (21-19)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

LIB's OC Kent Austin (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Liberty's Full Roster

LIB's DC Josh Aldridge (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

TOL's OC Mike Hallett (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD