Pittsburgh at Toledo - 2024 Matchup Preview

Thursday, December 26th 2024 (2:00 PM EST)
Pittsburgh -6.5 (48.5) (-230) Open: -9.5 | 51.5
Toledo 48 - Pittsburgh: 46 (GameAbove Sports Bowl)

Panthers (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Pat Narduzzi (65 - 50)
Avg Score : 34 - 25 (33 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Pittsburgh -9.5 (SP+ PITT -7.5)
Projected Score: PITT: 30 - TOL: 21 (51)
PITT Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
PITT Travel: 204 miles

Rockets (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (65 - 35)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (46 - 8 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
PITT Players
TOL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Pittsburgh's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Pittsburgh vs Kent State	-23.5	55.5	W 55 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Pittsburgh at Cincinnati	-2.5	62.5	W 28 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/14	Pittsburgh vs West Virginia	+2.5	60.5	W 38 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Pittsburgh vs Youngstown State	-29.5	59.5	W 73 - 17	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Pittsburgh at North Carolina	-2.5	63.0	W 34 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Pittsburgh vs California	-3.5	57.5	W 17 - 15	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/24	Pittsburgh vs Syracuse	-5.0	62.5	W 41 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Pittsburgh at SMU	+7.0	55.5	L 25 - 48	O	N
Sat 11/9	Pittsburgh vs Virginia	-7.5	56.5	L 19 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/16	Pittsburgh vs Clemson	+12.0	52.0	L 20 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Pittsburgh at Louisville	+7.0	57.0	L 9 - 37	U	N
Sat 11/30	Pittsburgh at Boston College	+3.5	50.5	L 23 - 34	O	N
Thu 12/26	Pittsburgh vs Toledo	-6.5	48.5	L 46 - 48	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Pittsburgh's Schedule

Toledo's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Toledo vs Duquesne	-27.5	53.5	W 49 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Toledo vs Massachusetts	-17.5	50.5	W 38 - 23	O	N
Sat 9/14	Toledo at Mississippi State	+10.5	56.5	W 41 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Toledo at Western Kentucky	-2.0	60.5	L 21 - 26	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Toledo vs Miami (OH)	-4.5	44.0	W 30 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Toledo at Buffalo	-10.5	44.5	L 15 - 30	O	N
Sat 10/19	Toledo at Northern Illinois	+3.0	42.5	W 13 - 6	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Toledo vs Bowling Green	-1.5	47.5	L 26 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/2	Toledo at Eastern Michigan	-10.0	54.5	W 29 - 28	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/12	Toledo vs Central Michigan	-15.0	52.5	W 37 - 10	U	Y
Wed 11/20	Toledo vs Ohio	-1.5	47.0	L 7 - 24	U	N
Tue 11/26	Toledo at Akron	-9.5	50.5	L 14 - 21	U	N
Thu 12/26	Toledo vs Pittsburgh	+6.5	48.5	W 48 - 46	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PITT	#119 (.09)	38% (113)	33.7	41% (90)	2.86 (109)	102	35% (117)	216	3.46 (98)	#23 (.11)	39% (39)	24.8	39% (32)	41% (67)	3.41 (33)	64.4	1.8	1.3
TOL	#27 (.28)	45% (34)	30.8	46% (38)	3.36 (20)	199	45% (37)	220	4.44 (26)	#22 (.1)	38% (29)	13.3	41% (54)	36% (14)	3.33 (22)	61.9	1.5	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PITT		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TOL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PITT Offense	12	33.7	33	37.7%	3.46	1.8	16	318	102	216	3.4	45%	54%	41%	35%	19%	.09
TOL Defense	14	13.3	7.7	38.4%	3.33	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	41%	36%	17%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PITT Defense	12	24.8	24.6	39.4%	3.41	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	58%	41%	39%	41%	18%	.11
TOL Offense	14	30.8	45.8	45.2%	4.44	1.5	20	419	199	220	5.3	57%	42%	46%	45%	13%	.28

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Pittsburgh	12	27:36	16.3	31%	50%	7.8	64.4	1.8	1.3	6.9	2.5	2	26.7
Toledo	14	27:55	20.3	44%	59%	6.6	61.9	1.5	1.3	5.1	2.5	2	31

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PITT Offense	12	45% (100)	41% (90)	29.7	101.9	3.4	10 (124)	.06 (118)	2.86 (109)	75% (52)	11% (94)	0.89 (117)
TOL Defense	14	51% (82)	41% (54)	-	-	-	-	.14 (66)	3.12 (72)	73% (71)	10% (73)	0.99 (64)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PITT Defense	12	58% (131)	39% (32)	-	-	-	-	.03 (17)	2.91 (37)	62% (16)	12% (18)	0.98 (57)
TOL Offense	14	57% (17)	46% (38)	37.4	198.9	5.3	31 (17)	.2 (41)	3.36 (20)	81% (14)	8% (24)	1.05 (38)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PITT Offense	12	54% (34)	35% (117)	16	30	216	7.2	13.5	17 (85)	12 (85)	.16 (109)	1.7 (36)	34% (103)	24% (122)	.17 (114)	8% (123)	2.2 (26)
TOL Defense	14	48% (46)	36% (14)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.12 (10)	1.5 (43)	34% (45)	25% (17)	.2 (17)	8% (16)	2 (61)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PITT Defense	12	41% (3)	41% (67)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.27 (67)	1.7 (103)	32% (58)	30% (75)	.29 (58)	6% (85)	2.2 (111)
TOL Offense	14	42% (116)	45% (37)	16.6	26.9	220.2	8.2	13.3	26 (31)	10 (56)	.42 (24)	1.7 (24)	32% (80)	32% (59)	.38 (52)	5% (35)	2 (78)

Pittsburgh's Power Ratings
Pittsburgh's Power Rating: 1.93 #56
Pittsburgh's Offense Rating: 18.73 #78
Pittsburgh's Defense Rating: 7.13 #45
2024 Talent Rating: 387.00 #39
Blue Chip Ratio: 7% #48
Pittsburgh's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
Pittsburgh's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.9 #50
Pittsburgh's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #54
Pittsburgh's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 405
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Pittsburgh: 1.93 Toledo: -6

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Pittsburgh: 4.9 Toledo: -2.5

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: -6 #99
Toledo's Offense Rating: 11.69 #121
Toledo's Defense Rating: 7.63 #50
2024 Talent Rating: 307.00 #72
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #74
Toledo's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Toledo's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.5 #80
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 247.58
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Pittsburgh Scoring
Offense: 33.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 33
Defense: 24.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.6

Pittsburgh's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Pittsburgh 30
Toledo 21

Projected Total Points: 51

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 45.8
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 7.7

Toledo's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	12/26	Toledo	48	Pittsburgh	46	Pittsburgh -6.5	Toledo	48.5	Over
2006	09/30	Pittsburgh	45	Toledo	3
2003	09/20	Toledo	35	Pittsburgh	31
2002	09/28	Pittsburgh	37	Toledo	19

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Toledo	2	1	1 Overs
Pittsburgh	2	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 4	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0

Pittsburgh Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2024	Sports Bowl	Pittsburgh vs Toledo	-6.5	48.5	L 46 - 48
2022	Sun Bowl	Pittsburgh vs UCLA	+9.0	55.0	W 37 - 35
2021	Peach Bowl	Pittsburgh vs Michigan State	+3.5	55.0	L 21 - 31
2019	Lane Bowl	Pittsburgh vs Eastern Michigan	-12.5	51.0	W 34 - 30
2018	N/A	Pittsburgh vs Stanford	+3.5	52.5	L 13 - 14

Toledo Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2024	Sports Bowl	Toledo vs Pittsburgh	+6.5	48.5	W 48 - 46
2023	Arizona Bowl	Toledo vs Wyoming	+4.5	43.5	L 15 - 16
2022	Raton Bowl	Toledo vs Liberty	-4.0	51.5	W 21 - 19
2021	Bahamas Bowl	Toledo vs Middle Tennessee	-10.0	50.0	L 24 - 31
2018	Bahamas Bowl	Toledo vs Florida International	-7.0	57.5	L 32 - 35

(#56) PITT at (#99) TOL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	PITT	TOL
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#56	#99
SP+SP+	#50	#80
Perf GradeGrade	#88	#50
OffenseOff	#116	#105
DefenseDef	#41	#14
Spec TeamsST	#37	#17
TalentTal	#39	#72
Blue ChipsBC%	#48	#74

Pittsburgh Notes(11/18) Fought vs Clem, Yarnell 350 yds, Rgame awful
(11/13) 2 bad L's, QB's awful (14-35, 2 Int), Rgame meh
(11/2) Fraud, Rgame awful, Holstein garbage @ SMU
(10/24) Pass rush great, forced 5 INTs, 217 yds Off/41 Pts
(10/12) Off was awful vs Cal, 1-12 3rd down, lucky to W
(10/4) Pass good, Run great. Top 10 OL yds, success
(9/12) Pitt is top 5 plays per minute through 2 games
(9/8) Holstein great vs Cin in comeback. Rgame good
(9/1) Holstein QB, Off torched Kent, balanced. Def big ?
(8/19) Off was near worst in P4 & OL worst in P4 LY
(8/19) Bowl poss only if Off improves vs. light sched
(7/30) New OC Bell interesting, WC OC had top 10 off
Pittsburgh Injury Report

Toledo Notes(11/27) Awful loss @ Akron to finish. Box score W, woof
(11/27) Bad offense, bad coach, bad season
(11/27) Candle terribly conservative for GW FG, missed it
(11/13) Gleason bad, Rgame avg, Def great in CMU W
(11/2) Gleason was bad but clutch in EMU comeback
(10/21) QB Gleason inj, Richter may start vs BG
(10/20) Def great, Off awful vs NIU. 285 yds in W
(10/18) Rgame awful, Run Def torched by Buffalo
(10/4) Off meh, Def v good. QB Gleason can play
(9/23) Outgainied WKU, but 4 TOs, gave up 14 late in L
(9/14) Outgained by UMass by 100 yds. Rgame awful
(8/15) HC Candle actively looking for P4 job
Toledo Injury Report

Pittsburgh on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	PITT Off	TOL Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#116	#14
SuccessSuc	#113	#29
ExplosiveExp	#66	#38
PPAPPA	#119	#22
PowerPwr	#78	#50
SP+SP+	#54	#64
Pts POPPO	#98	#22
HavocHav	#114	#43

Pittsburgh Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	PITT Off	TOL Def
Run GameRun	#83	#15
Run SuccessRSuc	#90	#54
Run ExplRExp	#117	#64
PPAExp	#118	#66
Run BlockR Blk	#102	-
OL YdsOLY	#109	#72
Stuff RateStuff	#101	#77
TackleTak	-	#3

Pittsburgh Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	PITT Off	TOL Def
Pass GamePass	#100	#22
Pass SuccessPSuc	#117	#14
Pass ExplPExl	#36	#43
PPAExp	#109	#10
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#125	#21
F7 HavocF7	#94	#73
DB HavocDB	#123	#16

Toledo on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	PITT Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#105	#41
SuccessSuc	#34	#39
ExplosiveExp	#39	#74
PPAPPA	#27	#23
PowerPwr	#121	#45
SP+SP+	#88	#64
Pts POPPO	#26	#33
HavocHav	#15	#36

Toledo Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	PITT Def
Run GameRun	#128	#41
Run SuccessRSuc	#38	#32
Run ExplRExp	#38	#57
PPAExp	#41	#17
Run BlockR Blk	#116	-
OL YdsOLY	#20	#37
Stuff RateStuff	#54	#16
TackleTak	-	#33

Toledo Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	PITT Def
Pass GamePass	#73	#49
Pass SuccessPSuc	#37	#67
Pass ExplPExl	#24	#103
PPAExp	#24	#67
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#117	#46
F7 HavocF7	#24	#18
DB HavocDB	#35	#85

Program Comparison
TOL 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'24 Profile: Remains Top G5

PITT 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ford Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Pittsburgh 6.5 (48.5)
Toledo won vs Pittsburgh this year (48-46)

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Pittsburgh in 2024 (48-46)

PITT's OC Kade Bell (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Eli Holstein (Tr)	179	290	62%	2225	17	7	7.7
Nate Yarnell	98	167	59%	1056	10	5	6.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Desmond Reid (Tr)	184	966	5	5.3	72
Eli Holstein (Tr)	81	328	3	4.0	49
Daniel Carter	22	208	4	9.5	43
Julian Dugger	21	88	1	4.2	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Konata Mumpfield	52	813	5	15.6	46
Desmond Reid (Tr)	52	579	4	11.1	72
Kenny Johnson	46	537	3	11.7	46
Raphael Williams	36	419	6	11.6	35

View Pittsburgh's Full Roster

PITT's DC Randy Bates (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Donovan McMillon	115	1	0	0	7
Kyle Louis	100	16	7	9	3
Brandon George	80	6	2	7	0
Rasheem Biles	80	14	4	3	9

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kyle Louis	100	16	7	9	3
Jimmy Scott	30	13	6	6	2
Nate Matlack (Tr)	23	7	5	8	3
Rasheem Biles	80	14	4	3	9

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Rasheem Biles	80	14	4	3	9
Rashad Battle	35	1	0	1	8
Donovan McMillon	115	1	0	0	7

TOL's OC Mike Hallett (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tucker Gleason	207	335	62%	2457	22	7	7.3
John Alan Richter	43	67	64%	497	4	0	7.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Connor Walendzak	122	457	1	3.7	32
Tucker Gleason	88	330	6	3.8	35
Jacquez Stuart	61	230	2	3.8	26
Sevaughn Clark	62	209	0	3.4	26

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jerjuan Newton	64	949	11	14.8	64
Junior Vandeross	73	763	4	10.5	73
Anthony Torres	27	362	8	13.4	78
Jacquez Stuart	15	170	0	11.3	34

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Maxen Hook	108	2	0	0	4
Daniel Bolden	91	8	3	2	0
Braden Awls	67	3	1	0	7
Jackson Barrow	64	9	2	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
D'Andre Ragin	42	8	5	5	1
Anthony Dunn	25	7	4	2	0
Darius Alexander	35	8	4	2	5
Martez Poynter	25	7	4	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Avery Smith	50	1	0	0	13
Braden Awls	67	3	1	0	7
Darius Alexander	35	8	4	2	5