Ball State at Toledo - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 22nd 2025 (2:00 PM EST)
Toledo -29.5 (45.5) (0) Open: -27.5 | 48.0
Toledo 38 - Ball State: 9 (Mid-American)

Cardinals (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mike Uremovich (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 16 - 30 (10 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)

Our Line: Toledo -31 (SP+ TOL -29)
Projected Score: BALL: 8 - TOL: 39 (46)
TOL Win prob: 99% | Cover: 51%
BALL Travel: 137 miles

Rockets (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (72 - 40)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (46 - 8 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)

Matchup
Schedules
BALL Players
TOL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Ball State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Ball State at Purdue	+16.5	50.5	L 0 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/6	Ball State at Auburn	+43.0	52.5	L 3 - 42	U	Y
Sat 9/13	Ball State vs New Hampshire	-3.0	46.5	W 34 - 29	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Ball State at UConn	+21.0	53.5	L 25 - 31	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Ball State vs Ohio	+14.0	52.5	W 20 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/11	Ball State at Western Michigan	+9.5	43.5	L 0 - 42	U	N
Sat 10/18	Ball State vs Akron	+2.5	44.5	W 42 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Ball State at Northern Illinois	+6.5	41.5	L 7 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/5	Ball State vs Kent State	-3.0	48.5	W 17 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/15	Ball State vs Eastern Michigan	+2.5	48.5	L 9 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/22	Ball State at Toledo	+29.5	45.5	L 9 - 38	O	Y
Sat 11/29	Ball State at Miami (OH)	+16.5	40.5	L 24 - 45	O	N

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 4

Predictions for Ball State's Schedule

Toledo's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Toledo at Kentucky	+10.0	48.5	L 16 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Toledo vs Western Kentucky	-8.5	57.5	W 45 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Toledo vs Morgan State	-33.5	54.5	W 60 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Toledo at Western Michigan	-13.5	48.5	L 13 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/27	Toledo vs Akron	-21.5	50.5	W 45 - 3	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Toledo at Bowling Green	-10.5	45.5	L 23 - 28	O	N
Sat 10/18	Toledo vs Kent State	-25.5	48.5	W 45 - 10	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Toledo at Washington State	-1.5	44.5	L 7 - 28	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/5	Toledo vs Northern Illinois	-14.5	42.5	W 42 - 3	O	Y
Wed 11/12	Toledo at Miami (OH)	-6.5	44.5	W 24 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Toledo vs Ball State	-29.5	45.5	W 38 - 9	O	N
Sat 11/29	Toledo at Central Michigan	-11.5	46.5	W 21 - 3	U	Y
Tue 12/23	Toledo vs Louisville	+12.5	44.5	L 22 - 27	O	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 2

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BALL	#98 (.14)	42% (78)	15.8	44% (70)	3.06 (61)	103	41% (72)	245	3.94 (65)	#128 (.32)	46% (118)	29.8	46% (103)	47% (121)	4.81 (133)	45.3	1.2	1.3
TOL	#111 (.11)	41% (95)	30.8	38% (120)	2.66 (121)	111	44% (46)	227	3.55 (99)	#20 (.09)	40% (43)	13.3	42% (60)	38% (35)	3.87 (79)	46.7	1.3	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BALL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TOL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BALL Offense	12	15.8	9.7	42.1%	3.94	1.2	20	348	103	245	3.4	42%	58%	44%	41%	19%	.14
TOL Defense	13	13.3	7.7	39.8%	3.87	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	42%	38%	19%	.09

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BALL Defense	12	29.8	35.7	46.5%	4.81	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	46%	47%	13%	.32
TOL Offense	13	30.8	45.8	40.8%	3.55	1.3	18	339	111	227	3.5	46%	53%	38%	44%	16%	.11

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Ball State	12	30:58	20.3	42%	46%	4.9	45.3	1.2	1.3	4.6	1.7	2	30.3
Toledo	13	25:06	18.4	36%	50%	5.4	46.7	1.3	1.3	6.2	2.1	2	31.4

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BALL Offense	12	42% (120)	44% (70)	30.8	103.4	3.4	10 (122)	.1 (91)	3.06 (61)	80% (23)	11% (99)	0.87 (117)
TOL Defense	13	52% (83)	42% (60)	-	-	-	-	.11 (66)	3.01 (69)	77% (89)	12% (31)	0.95 (48)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BALL Defense	12	47% (34)	46% (103)	-	-	-	-	.22 (116)	3.17 (90)	74% (72)	9% (103)	1.08 (110)
TOL Offense	13	46% (96)	38% (120)	31.5	111.3	3.5	12 (114)	-.04 (127)	2.66 (121)	57% (130)	10% (74)	0.83 (125)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BALL Offense	12	58% (16)	41% (72)	23.3	36.6	244.7	6.7	10.5	26 (26)	11 (72)	.19 (98)	1.6 (73)	33% (93)	28% (101)	.29 (88)	8% (123)	2.2 (15)
TOL Defense	13	48% (51)	38% (35)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.08 (11)	1.5 (29)	34% (38)	29% (39)	.22 (34)	7% (35)	2 (43)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BALL Defense	12	52% (100)	47% (121)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (93)	.44 (128)	1.8 (119)	33% (55)	40% (133)	.57 (131)	5% (115)	2.2 (115)
TOL Offense	13	53% (41)	44% (46)	19.2	31	227.2	7.3	11.8	26 (26)	7 (26)	.26 (67)	1.6 (61)	31% (65)	27% (108)	.18 (115)	6% (76)	2 (68)

Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -20.23 #131
Ball State's Offense Rating: -1.10 #136
Ball State's Defense Rating: 19.13 #98
2025 Talent Rating: 588.00 #97
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Ball State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Ball State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -23.0 #132
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 13.4 #134
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.4 #115

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 571
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -20.23 Toledo: 9.5

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -23.0 Toledo: 6.0

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 9.5 #46
Toledo's Offense Rating: 15.43 #55
Toledo's Defense Rating: 7.43 #32
2025 Talent Rating: 718.00 #71
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #56
Toledo's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Toledo's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.0 #48
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #75
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.5 #21

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 571
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Ball State Scoring
Offense: 15.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 9.7
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.7

Ball State's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 0 - 7
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Toledo 39
Ball State 8

Projected Total Points: 46

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 45.8
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 7.7

Toledo's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	Toledo	38	Ball State	9	Toledo -29.5	Ball State	45.5	Over
2023	10/14	Ball State	6	Toledo	13	Toledo -17.5	Ball State	48.5	Under
2022	11/08	Toledo	28	Ball State	21	Toledo -11	Ball State	50.0	Under
2021	09/25	Ball State	12	Toledo	22	Toledo -4.5	Toledo	56.5	Under
2020	11/28	Toledo	24	Ball State	27	Toledo -9.5	Ball State	67.0	Under
2019	10/19	Ball State	52	Toledo	14	Ball State -3.5	Ball State	58.5	Over
2018	10/31	Toledo	45	Ball State	13	Toledo -19.5	Toledo	64.0	Under
2017	10/26	Ball State	17	Toledo	58	Toledo -26.5	Toledo	55.5	Over
2016	11/16	Toledo	37	Ball State	19	Toledo -19	Ball State	68.5	Under
2015	10/03	Ball State	10	Toledo	24	Toledo -9.5	Toledo	54.5	Under
2014	09/20	Toledo	34	Ball State	23	Toledo -9	Toledo	0
2013	09/28	Ball State	31	Toledo	24	Ball State -1	Ball State	0
2012	11/06	Toledo	27	Ball State	34
2011	11/25	Ball State	28	Toledo	45
2010	10/23	Toledo	31	Ball State	24
2009	10/03	Ball State	30	Toledo	37
2008	10/04	Toledo	0	Ball State	31
2007	11/13	Ball State	41	Toledo	20
2006	11/14	Toledo	17	Ball State	20
2005	10/15	Ball State	14	Toledo	34
2004	10/02	Toledo	52	Ball State	14
2003	10/25	Ball State	38	Toledo	14
2002	10/12	Toledo	37	Ball State	17
2001	10/20	Ball State	24	Toledo	20
2000	11/10	Toledo	31	Ball State	3

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Toledo	16	5	3 Overs
Ball State	9	7	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	14 - 11	5 - 7	4 - 4	1 - 3
Road Teams	11 - 14	7 - 5	3 - 1	4 - 4

(#131) BALL at (#46) TOL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BALL	TOL
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#131	#46
SP+SP+	#132	#48
Perf GradeGrade	#133	#11
OffenseOff	#133	#41
DefenseDef	#123	#6
Spec TeamsST	#120	#14
TalentTal	#97	#71
Blue ChipsBC%	#88	#56

Ball State Notes(11/5) Uremovich outcoached Carney in Kent St win
(10/31) OL is worst in MAC, DL bad as well. QB Kelly bad
(10/19) Off is awful, RB Qua Ashley is it. W over Ohio baffling
(10/8) Run Def has improved since paycheck games
(8/30) Off abysmal vs Purdue, Run Def good, Pass not
(7/12) OL has size, low key good starting 5 if healthy
(7/12) Overall portal loser both talent & quantity
(3/30) RB rebuild. 2 portals, Ashley (KSU) explosive
(3/26) QB Taylor (CU) via portal. No exp'd options
(3/26) WR rebuild, must like depth only 1 FCS portal
(3/26) OL was OK LY, 2/5 back. Some depth, 1 portal
(3/26) Def awful LY, replace most. 8 portals, 6 DBs
Ball State Injury Report

Toledo Notes(12/11) HC Candle left for UConn? Very odd move
(12/11) Hired HC Mike Jacobs (Mercer). Pot. big upgrade
(11/13) Beat M-OH w/ QB2, not impressive. 3 TOs, 313 yds
(10/31) Killed by Wazzu in bad spot, Run Off awful 61 yds
(10/31) 8-4 best possible finish & must win @ Mia OH
(10/12) Blew another vs BG, OG'd BG by 200 yds & still lost
(10/12) Penalties, turnovers & awful coaching killing Toledo
(9/24) Gleason/Off disappointing. Penalty issues hurting
(9/20) Yearly awful L vs 0-3 WMU, Gleason 89 yds, 2 INT
(8/30) Run Off terrible, Run Def bad in L to UK
(8/20) CB A. Smith a true shutdown & NFL prospect
(7/28) OL 5/5 back. Best in MAC, top 3 in the G5
Toledo Injury Report

Ball State on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	BALL Off	TOL Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#133	#6
SuccessSuc	#78	#43
ExplosiveExp	#81	#33
PPAPPA	#98	#20
PowerPwr	#136	#32
SP+SP+	#134	#21
Pts POPPO	#65	#79
HavocHav	#119	#28

Ball State Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	BALL Off	TOL Def
Run GameRun	#130	#16
Run SuccessRSuc	#70	#60
Run ExplRExp	#117	#48
PPAExp	#91	#66
Run BlockR Blk	#106	-
OL YdsOLY	#61	#69
Stuff RateStuff	#8	#81
TackleTak	-	#41

Ball State Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	BALL Off	TOL Def
Pass GamePass	#132	#13
Pass SuccessPSuc	#72	#35
Pass ExplPExl	#73	#29
PPAExp	#98	#11
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#108	#4
F7 HavocF7	#99	#31
DB HavocDB	#123	#35

Toledo on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	BALL Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#41	#123
SuccessSuc	#95	#118
ExplosiveExp	#83	#126
PPAPPA	#111	#128
PowerPwr	#55	#98
SP+SP+	#75	#115
Pts POPPO	#99	#133
HavocHav	#72	#116

Toledo Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	BALL Def
Run GameRun	#62	#125
Run SuccessRSuc	#120	#103
Run ExplRExp	#125	#110
PPAExp	#127	#116
Run BlockR Blk	#52	-
OL YdsOLY	#121	#90
Stuff RateStuff	#120	#77
TackleTak	-	#117

Toledo Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	BALL Def
Pass GamePass	#6	#134
Pass SuccessPSuc	#46	#121
Pass ExplPExl	#61	#119
PPAExp	#67	#128
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#97	#21
F7 HavocF7	#74	#103
DB HavocDB	#76	#115

Program Comparison
TOL 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

BALL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Glass Bowl
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 45°

Rematch from Week 13
Toledo -29.5 (45.5)
Toledo won vs Ball State this year (38-9)

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Ball State last year (38-9)
Toledo beat Ball State in 2023 (13-6)

BALL's OC Mike Uremovich (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kiael Kelly	153	272	56%	1560	10	8	5.7
Ty Robinson	2	3	67%	77	0	0	25.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kiael Kelly	211	608	5	2.9	56
Qua Ashley (Tr)	118	547	4	4.6	72
TJ Horton	60	180	0	3.0	13
Eric Weatherly (Tr)	13	117	0	9.0	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Qian Magwood	19	320	1	16.8	53
Donovan Hamilton (Tr)	20	244	0	12.2	47
Eric Weatherly (Tr)	29	238	1	8.2	35
Koby Gross (Tr)	10	141	1	14.1	42

View Ball State's Full Roster

BALL's DC Jeff Knowles (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alfred Chea (Tr)	59	4	0	1	5
Nathan Voorhis	49	16	10	2	0
Michael Gravely Jr. (Tr)	44	1	0	0	1
Joey Stemler	44	2	0	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nathan Voorhis	49	16	10	2	0
DeJuan Echoles	27	6	4	2	2
Drew Hughes	27	2	2	1	0
Darin Conley	24	4	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Willizhuan Yates	32	0	0	6
Alfred Chea (Tr)	59	4	1	5
Jahmad Harmon	24	2	0	5

TOL's OC Mike Hallett (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tucker Gleason	207	320	65%	2515	21	9	7.9
Kalieb Osborne	32	52	62%	427	3	0	8.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
DeaMonte Trayanum	182	1015	12	5.6	75
Kenji Christian (Tr)	105	528	4	5.0	37
Kalieb Osborne	51	282	2	5.5	33
Tucker Gleason	46	144	4	3.1	35

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Junior Vandeross	82	1008	11	12.3	71
Trayvon Rudolph (Tr)	39	435	2	11.2	58
Jacob Petersen (Tr)	25	335	3	13.4	28
DeaMonte Trayanum	21	212	2	10.1	57

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
K'Von Sherman	93	15	5	6	1
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren	77	6	1	3	6
Chris D'Appolonia	59	4	1	2	4
Andre Fuller	49	3	0	0	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Martez Poynter	43	10	7	9	0
Malachi Davis	35	10	6	8	1
K'Von Sherman	93	15	5	6	1
Jeremiah Peters	24	6	4	3	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Avery Smith	42	5	0	0	10
Andre Fuller	49	3	0	0	10
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren	77	6	1	3	6