Toledo at Central Michigan - 2025 Matchup Preview

Toledo Rockets at Central Michigan Chippewas

Saturday, November 29th 2025 (12:00 PM EST)
Toledo -11.5 (46.5) (-390) Open: -9.5 | 44.5
Toledo 21 - Central Michigan: 3 (Mid-American)

Rockets (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (72 - 40)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (17 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)

TOL is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Toledo -13.5 (SP+ TOL -15)
Projected Score: TOL: 29 - CMU: 16 (45)
TOL Win prob: 77% | Cover: 45%
TOL Travel: 145 miles

Chippewas (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Matt Drinkall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 23 - 24 (30 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 5.7 (#66)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TOL Players
CMU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Toledo's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Toledo at Kentucky	+10.0	48.5	L 16 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Toledo vs Western Kentucky	-8.5	57.5	W 45 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Toledo vs Morgan State	-33.5	54.5	W 60 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Toledo at Western Michigan	-13.5	48.5	L 13 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/27	Toledo vs Akron	-21.5	50.5	W 45 - 3	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Toledo at Bowling Green	-10.5	45.5	L 23 - 28	O	N
Sat 10/18	Toledo vs Kent State	-25.5	48.5	W 45 - 10	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Toledo at Washington State	-1.5	44.5	L 7 - 28	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/5	Toledo vs Northern Illinois	-14.5	42.5	W 42 - 3	O	Y
Wed 11/12	Toledo at Miami (OH)	-6.5	44.5	W 24 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Toledo vs Ball State	-29.5	45.5	W 38 - 9	O	N
Sat 11/29	Toledo at Central Michigan	-11.5	46.5	W 21 - 3	U	Y
Tue 12/23	Toledo vs Louisville	+12.5	44.5	L 22 - 27	O	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 5
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 1

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule

Central Michigan's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	Central Michigan at San José State	+11.5	50.5	W 16 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Central Michigan at Pittsburgh	+21.5	48.5	L 17 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/13	Central Michigan at Michigan	+27.5	42.5	L 3 - 63	O	N
Sat 9/20	Central Michigan vs Wagner	-29.0	47.0	W 49 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/27	Central Michigan vs Eastern Michigan	-3.0	55.5	W 24 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/4	Central Michigan at Akron	-7.0	47.5	L 22 - 28	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18	Central Michigan at Bowling Green	+3.0	43.5	W 27 - 6	U	Y
Sat 10/25	Central Michigan vs Massachusetts	-16.5	46.5	W 38 - 13	O	Y
Sat 11/1	Central Michigan at Western Michigan	+6.0	43.5	L 21 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/12	Central Michigan vs Buffalo	-2.5	44.5	W 38 - 19	O	Y
Wed 11/19	Central Michigan at Kent State	-7.5	50.5	W 28 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/29	Central Michigan vs Toledo	+11.5	46.5	L 3 - 21	U	N
Fri 12/26	Central Michigan vs Northwestern	+13.5	43.5	L 7 - 34	U	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 7
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 6
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Central Michigan's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL	#111 (.11)	41% (95)	30.8	38% (120)	2.66 (121)	111	44% (46)	227	3.55 (99)	#20 (.09)	40% (43)	13.3	42% (60)	38% (35)	3.87 (79)	46.7	1.3	1.3
CMU	#96 (.15)	39% (115)	22.5	42% (88)	3.2 (41)	169	34% (124)	163	3.82 (80)	#96 (.21)	40% (44)	23.5	41% (48)	39% (50)	3.6 (45)	60.9	2	0.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
CMU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Offense	13	30.8	17.3	40.8%	3.55	1.3	18	339	111	227	3.5	46%	53%	38%	44%	16%	.11
CMU Defense	12	23.5	15.2	39.9%	3.6	0.4	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	41%	39%	18%	.21

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Defense	13	13.3	16.7	39.8%	3.87	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	42%	38%	19%	.09
CMU Offense	12	22.5	30.4	38.7%	3.82	2	18	332	169	163	4.5	57%	43%	42%	34%	20%	.15

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Toledo	13	25:06	18.4	36%	50%	5.4	46.7	1.3	1.3	6.2	2.1	2	31.4
Central Michigan	12	29:26	17.9	35%	58%	6.8	60.9	2	0.4	7.7	2.6	3	27.1

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Offense	13	46% (96)	38% (120)	31.5	111.3	3.5	12 (114)	-.04 (127)	2.66 (121)	57% (130)	10% (74)	0.83 (125)
CMU Defense	12	52% (80)	41% (48)	-	-	-	-	.15 (82)	3 (66)	82% (117)	13% (14)	1.18 (127)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Defense	13	52% (83)	42% (60)	-	-	-	-	.11 (66)	3.01 (69)	77% (89)	12% (31)	0.95 (48)
CMU Offense	12	57% (24)	42% (88)	37.3	168.9	4.5	17 (84)	.22 (24)	3.2 (41)	80% (23)	12% (108)	1.09 (27)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Offense	13	53% (41)	44% (46)	19.2	31	227.2	7.3	11.8	26 (26)	7 (26)	.26 (67)	1.6 (61)	31% (65)	27% (108)	.18 (115)	6% (76)	2 (68)
CMU Defense	12	48% (54)	39% (50)	-	-	-	-	-	-	2 (134)	.28 (93)	1.7 (102)	36% (18)	30% (60)	.37 (95)	5% (117)	2.2 (103)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Defense	13	48% (51)	38% (35)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.08 (11)	1.5 (29)	34% (38)	29% (39)	.22 (34)	7% (35)	2 (43)
CMU Offense	12	43% (110)	34% (124)	13.9	25.2	163.4	6.5	11.7	11 (122)	12 (85)	.04 (129)	1.5 (85)	34% (112)	22% (132)	.18 (116)	8% (119)	2 (86)

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 8.00 #46
Toledo's Offense Rating: 15.43 #55
Toledo's Defense Rating: 7.43 #32
2025 Talent Rating: 718.00 #71
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #56
Toledo's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Toledo's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.0 #48
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #75
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.5 #21

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 571
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 8.00 Central Michigan: -6.58

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 6.0 Central Michigan: -8.8

Central Michigan's Power Ratings
Central Michigan's Power Rating: -6.58 #98
Central Michigan's Offense Rating: 6.88 #109
Central Michigan's Defense Rating: 16.24 #90
2025 Talent Rating: 514.00 #116
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Central Michigan's 2025 Expected Record: 7.3 - 5.7
Central Michigan's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.8 #100
Central Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.6 #120
Central Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #65

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 571
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.3
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 16.7

Toledo's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Toledo 29
Central Michigan 16

Projected Total Points: 45

Central Michigan Scoring
Offense: 22.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.4
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.2

Central Michigan's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/29	Central Michigan	3	Toledo	21	Toledo -11.5	Toledo	46.5	Under
2024	11/12	Toledo	37	Central Michigan	10	Toledo -15	Toledo	52.5	Under
2023	11/24	Central Michigan	17	Toledo	32	Toledo -12.5	Toledo	54.5	Under
2022	10/01	Toledo	38	Central Michigan	17	Toledo -6.5	Toledo	56.0	Under
2021	10/16	Central Michigan	26	Toledo	23	Toledo -5	Central Michigan	53.0	Under
2020	12/12	Toledo	24	Central Michigan	23	Toledo -10	Central Michigan	54.5	Under
2019	11/29	Central Michigan	49	Toledo	7	Central Michigan -14.5	Central Michigan	64.0	Under
2018	11/23	Toledo	51	Central Michigan	13	Toledo -19	Toledo	58.0	Over
2017	10/14	Central Michigan	10	Toledo	30	Toledo -9.5	Toledo	55.0	Under
2016	10/22	Toledo	31	Central Michigan	17	Toledo -10	Toledo	61.5	Under
2015	11/10	Central Michigan	23	Toledo	28	Toledo -6	Central Michigan	54.5	Under
2014	09/27	Toledo	42	Central Michigan	28	Toledo -15	Central Michigan	0
2013	09/21	Central Michigan	17	Toledo	38	Toledo -14	Toledo	0
2012	10/06	Toledo	50	Central Michigan	35
2011	11/18	Central Michigan	17	Toledo	44
2010	11/26	Toledo	42	Central Michigan	31
2009	11/11	Central Michigan	56	Toledo	28
2008	10/25	Toledo	23	Central Michigan	24
2007	09/08	Central Michigan	52	Toledo	31
2006	10/07	Toledo	20	Central Michigan	42
2005	10/29	Central Michigan	21	Toledo	17
2004	10/23	Toledo	27	Central Michigan	22
2003	10/18	Central Michigan	13	Toledo	31
2002	11/09	Toledo	44	Central Michigan	17
2001	09/22	Central Michigan	28	Toledo	52
2000	09/29	Toledo	41	Central Michigan	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Central Michigan	7	5	1 Overs
Toledo	19	8	10 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	16 - 10	7 - 6	5 - 2	2 - 4
Road Teams	10 - 16	6 - 7	4 - 2	2 - 5

(#46) TOL at (#98) CMU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TOL	CMU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#46	#98
SP+SP+	#48	#100
Perf GradeGrade	#11	#73
OffenseOff	#41	#79
DefenseDef	#6	#46
Spec TeamsST	#14	#126
TalentTal	#71	#116
Blue ChipsBC%	#56	#101

Toledo Notes(12/11) HC Candle left for UConn? Very odd move
(12/11) Hired HC Mike Jacobs (Mercer). Pot. big upgrade
(11/13) Beat M-OH w/ QB2, not impressive. 3 TOs, 313 yds
(10/31) Killed by Wazzu in bad spot, Run Off awful 61 yds
(10/31) 8-4 best possible finish & must win @ Mia OH
(10/12) Blew another vs BG, OG'd BG by 200 yds & still lost
(10/12) Penalties, turnovers & awful coaching killing Toledo
(9/24) Gleason/Off disappointing. Penalty issues hurting
(9/20) Yearly awful L vs 0-3 WMU, Gleason 89 yds, 2 INT
(8/30) Run Off terrible, Run Def bad in L to UK
(8/20) CB A. Smith a true shutdown & NFL prospect
(7/28) OL 5/5 back. Best in MAC, top 3 in the G5
Toledo Injury Report

Central Michigan Notes(10/31) QB1 Labas meh but QB2 Flores incredible runner
(10/31) 5-1 outside of paycheck games but lost @ Akron
(8/30) Ground & Pound offense, good vs SJSU 200+
(8/25) QB1 - Joe Labas starting, inj after 6 starts LY
(7/28) Is Drinkall running Army offense?
(6/12) Skill positions very weak on paper. Risers?
(3/26) QB Labas PT starter LY, Glasser has exp
(3/26) RB rebuild, Cornist (Tul) added, some depth
(3/26) WR complete rebuild, 13 rec back. No portals
(3/26) OL 3/5 back, meh LY. 4 portals, 3 via Valpo
(3/26) Def bad LY, return some. 3 portals
(3/26) New HC Drinkall was Army OL coach.
Central Michigan Injury Report

Toledo on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	CMU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#41	#46
SuccessSuc	#95	#44
ExplosiveExp	#83	#121
PPAPPA	#111	#96
PowerPwr	#55	#90
SP+SP+	#75	#65
Pts POPPO	#99	#45
HavocHav	#72	#45

Toledo Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	CMU Def
Run GameRun	#62	#99
Run SuccessRSuc	#120	#48
Run ExplRExp	#125	#127
PPAExp	#127	#82
Run BlockR Blk	#52	-
OL YdsOLY	#121	#66
Stuff RateStuff	#120	#72
TackleTak	-	#21

Toledo Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	CMU Def
Pass GamePass	#6	#26
Pass SuccessPSuc	#46	#50
Pass ExplPExl	#61	#102
PPAExp	#67	#93
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#97	#45
F7 HavocF7	#74	#14
DB HavocDB	#76	#117

Central Michigan on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCat	CMU Off	TOL Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#79	#6
SuccessSuc	#115	#43
ExplosiveExp	#82	#33
PPAPPA	#96	#20
PowerPwr	#109	#32
SP+SP+	#120	#21
Pts POPPO	#80	#79
HavocHav	#124	#28

Central Michigan Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCat	CMU Off	TOL Def
Run GameRun	#78	#16
Run SuccessRSuc	#88	#60
Run ExplRExp	#27	#48
PPAExp	#24	#66
Run BlockR Blk	#77	-
OL YdsOLY	#41	#69
Stuff RateStuff	#12	#81
TackleTak	-	#41

Central Michigan Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCat	CMU Off	TOL Def
Pass GamePass	#55	#13
Pass SuccessPSuc	#124	#35
Pass ExplPExl	#85	#29
PPAExp	#129	#11
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#135	#4
F7 HavocF7	#108	#31
DB HavocDB	#119	#35

Program Comparison
CMU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average G5

TOL 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 14
Toledo 11.5 (46.5)
Toledo won at Central Michigan this year (21-3)

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Central Michigan last year (21-3)
Toledo beat Central Michigan in 2024 (37-10)
Toledo beat Central Michigan in 2023 (32-17)

TOL's OC Mike Hallett (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tucker Gleason	207	320	65%	2515	21	9	7.9
Kalieb Osborne	32	52	62%	427	3	0	8.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
DeaMonte Trayanum	182	1015	12	5.6	75
Kenji Christian (Tr)	105	528	4	5.0	37
Kalieb Osborne	51	282	2	5.5	33
Tucker Gleason	46	144	4	3.1	35

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Junior Vandeross	82	1008	11	12.3	71
Trayvon Rudolph (Tr)	39	435	2	11.2	58
Jacob Petersen (Tr)	25	335	3	13.4	28
DeaMonte Trayanum	21	212	2	10.1	57

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
K'Von Sherman	93	15	5	6	1
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren	77	6	1	3	6
Chris D'Appolonia	59	4	1	2	4
Andre Fuller	49	3	0	0	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Martez Poynter	43	10	7	9	0
Malachi Davis	35	10	6	8	1
K'Von Sherman	93	15	5	6	1
Jeremiah Peters	24	6	4	3	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Avery Smith	42	5	0	0	10
Andre Fuller	49	3	0	0	10
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren	77	6	1	3	6

CMU's OC Jim Chapin (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Joey Labas	147	208	71%	1854	13	6	8.9
Angel H Flores	19	28	68%	195	2	1	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nahree Biggins	105	540	2	5.1	58
Angel H Flores	107	527	8	4.9	37
Trey Cornist (Tr)	104	469	1	4.5	29
Brock Townsend	82	418	4	5.1	46

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Langston Lewis	43	596	3	13.9	77
Tommy Mcintosh	31	422	3	13.6	47
Tyson Davis	25	323	2	12.9	36
Nahree Biggins	19	185	1	9.7	88

View Central Michigan's Full Roster

CMU's DC Sean Cronin (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Kwiatkowski	112	14	3	2	4
Dakota Cochran	81	6	1	5	3
Caleb Spann	54	1	0	0	4
Kalen Carroll (Tr)	49	2	0	1	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Michael Heldman	48	17	12	8	4
Korver Demma	28	9	4	5	1
Jordan Kwiatkowski	112	14	3	2	4
Jaion Jackson	45	4	2	2	7

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brenden Deasfernandes	25	0	0	0	8
Jaion Jackson	45	4	2	2	7
Jordan Kwiatkowski	112	14	3	2	4