Toledo at Central Michigan - 2025 Matchup Preview
Toledo logo Toledo Rockets at Central Michigan ChippewasCentral Michigan logo
Saturday, November 29th 2025 (12:00 PM EST)
Toledo -11.5 (46.5) (-390)  Open: -9.5 | 44.5
Toledo 21 - Central Michigan: 3  (Mid-American)

 
Rockets (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (72 - 40)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (17 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Light Snowfall Predicted
TOL is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Toledo -15  (SP+ TOL -14.5)

Projected Score: TOL: 30 - CMU: 15 (45)
TOL Win prob: 77% | Cover: 45%
TOL Travel: 145 miles
Chippewas (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Matt Drinkall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 23 - 24 (30 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 5.7 (#66)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Toledo's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Toledo at Kentucky+10.048.5L 16 - 24UY
Sat 9/6 Toledo vs Western Kentucky-8.557.5W 45 - 21OY
Sat 9/13 Toledo vs Morgan State-33.554.5W 60 - 0OY
Sat 9/20 Toledo at Western Michigan-13.548.5L 13 - 14UN
Sat 9/27 Toledo vs Akron-21.550.5W 45 - 3UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Toledo at Bowling Green-10.545.5L 23 - 28ON
Sat 10/18 Toledo vs Kent State-25.548.5W 45 - 10OY
Sat 10/25 Toledo at Washington State-1.544.5L 7 - 28UN
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/5 Toledo vs Northern Illinois-14.542.5W 42 - 3OY
Wed 11/12 Toledo at Miami (OH)-6.544.5W 24 - 3UY
Sat 11/22 Toledo vs Ball State-29.545.5W 38 - 9ON
Sat 11/29 Toledo at Central Michigan-11.546.5W 21 - 3UY
Tue 12/23 Toledo vs Louisville+12.544.5L 22 - 27OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 5
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 1

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule
Central Michigan's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Central Michigan at San José State+11.550.5W 16 - 14UY
Sat 9/6 Central Michigan at Pittsburgh+21.548.5L 17 - 45ON
Sat 9/13 Central Michigan at Michigan+27.542.5L 3 - 63ON
Sat 9/20 Central Michigan vs Wagner-29.047.0W 49 - 10OY
Sat 9/27 Central Michigan vs Eastern Michigan-3.055.5W 24 - 13UY
Sat 10/4 Central Michigan at Akron-7.047.5L 22 - 28ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Central Michigan at Bowling Green+3.043.5W 27 - 6UY
Sat 10/25 Central Michigan vs Massachusetts-16.546.5W 38 - 13OY
Sat 11/1 Central Michigan at Western Michigan+6.043.5L 21 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/12 Central Michigan vs Buffalo-2.544.5W 38 - 19OY
Wed 11/19 Central Michigan at Kent State-7.550.5W 28 - 16UY
Sat 11/29 Central Michigan vs Toledo+11.546.5L 3 - 21UN
Fri 12/26 Central Michigan vs Northwestern+13.543.5L 7 - 34UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 7
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 6
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Central Michigan's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL#63 (.18)44% (54)30.843% (70)2.91 (75)16544% (39)2253.86 (55)#2 (-.07)33% (4)13.339% (28)28% (1)2.33 (2)66.91.11.5
CMU#70 (.17)41% (89)22.540% (103)2.79 (102)15844% (41)1533.6 (79)#38 (.1)40% (45)23.541% (56)39% (43)3.14 (27)45.20.91.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL#111 (.11)41% (95)38% (120)2.66 (121)11144% (46)2273.55 (99)#20 (.09)40% (43)42% (60)38% (35)3.87 (79)46.71.31.3
CMU#96 (.15)39% (115)42% (88)3.2 (41)16934% (124)1633.82 (80)#96 (.21)40% (44)41% (48)39% (50)3.6 (45)60.920.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Offense1330.817.343.6%3.861.120390165225549%49%43%44%13%.18
CMU Defense1323.515.239.5%3.141.5 - - - - - 47%51%41%39%17%.1
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Defense1313.316.733.2%2.331.5 - - - - - 52%45%39%28%20%-.07
CMU Offense1322.530.441.1%3.60.9163111581534.163%35%40%44%16%.17

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Toledo1327:5919.641%19%7.566.91.11.56.62.7331.2
Central Michigan1329:3515.835%60%5.645.20.91.54.92.2229
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Offense1349% (68)43% (70)33.2164.7521 (40).12 (65)2.91 (75)78% (28)9% (54)0.9 (92)
CMU Defense1347% (39)41% (56) - - - - .04 (32)2.83 (57)62% (12)10% (61)0.9 (38)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Defense1352% (99)39% (28) - - - - (16)2.44 (9)67% (39)13% (7)0.88 (26)
CMU Offense1363% (7)40% (103)38.8158.14.117 (78).07 (87)2.79 (102)75% (49)12% (121)0.92 (85)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Offense1349% (68)44% (39)18.428.5225.27.912.326 (22)10 (60).28 (54)1.6 (62)32% (72)29% (80).2 (109)4% (10)1.9 (113)
CMU Defense1351% (97)39% (43) - - - - - - 12 (12).19 (44)1.5 (64)32% (59)27% (33).25 (55)7% (24)2 (74)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Defense1345% (30)28% (1) - - - - - - 13 (55)-.08 (1)1.6 (108)35% (22)19% (1)-.01 (1)7% (17)2.2 (123)
CMU Offense1335% (130)44% (41)11.917.5153.48.812.915 (106)6 (3).4 (23)1.6 (40)32% (73)26% (115).31 (69)4% (16)2.1 (35)

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 15.08  #32
Toledo's Offense Rating: 10.35  #62
Toledo's Defense Rating: -4.73  #16
2025 Talent Rating: 718.00  #71
Blue Chip Ratio: 4%  #56
Toledo's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Toledo's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.4  #37
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.9  #73
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.9  #17

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 15.08   Central Michigan: -3.165

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 8.4   Central Michigan: -5.9




Central Michigan's Power Ratings
Central Michigan's Power Rating: -3.165  #89
Central Michigan's Offense Rating: 4.11  #100
Central Michigan's Defense Rating: 9.54  #78
2025 Talent Rating: 514.00  #116
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
Central Michigan's 2025 Expected Record: 7.3 - 5.7
Central Michigan's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.9  #92
Central Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.5  #115
Central Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.2  #57

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.3
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 16.7

Toledo's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Toledo 30
Central Michigan 15


Total Points: 45

Based on Last 4 Games
Central Michigan 24
Toledo 19

Total Points: 43

Based on Entire Season
Toledo 22
Central Michigan 21

Total Points: 43
Central Michigan Scoring
Offense: 22.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.4
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.2

Central Michigan's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/29Central Michigan3Toledo21Toledo -11.5Toledo46.5Under
202411/12Toledo37Central Michigan10Toledo -15Toledo52.5Under
202311/24Central Michigan17Toledo32Toledo -12.5Toledo54.5Under
202210/01Toledo38Central Michigan17Toledo -6.5Toledo56.0Under
202110/16Central Michigan26Toledo23Toledo -5Central Michigan53.0Under
202012/12Toledo24Central Michigan23Toledo -10Central Michigan54.5Under
201911/29Central Michigan49Toledo7Central Michigan -14.5Central Michigan64.0Under
201811/23Toledo51Central Michigan13Toledo -19Toledo58.0Over
201710/14Central Michigan10Toledo30Toledo -9.5Toledo55.0Under
201610/22Toledo31Central Michigan17Toledo -10Toledo61.5Under
201511/10Central Michigan23Toledo28Toledo -6Central Michigan54.5Under
201409/27Toledo42Central Michigan28Toledo -15Central Michigan0
201309/21Central Michigan17Toledo38Toledo -14Toledo0
201210/06Toledo50Central Michigan35
201111/18Central Michigan17Toledo44
201011/26Toledo42Central Michigan31
200911/11Central Michigan56Toledo28
200810/25Toledo23Central Michigan24
200709/08Central Michigan52Toledo31
200610/07Toledo20Central Michigan42
200510/29Central Michigan21Toledo17
200410/23Toledo27Central Michigan22
200310/18Central Michigan13Toledo31
200211/09Toledo44Central Michigan17
200109/22Central Michigan28Toledo52
200009/29Toledo41Central Michigan0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Central Michigan751 Overs
Toledo19810 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams16 - 107 - 65 - 22 - 4
Road Teams10 - 166 - 74 - 22 - 5

(#32) TOL at (#89) CMU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTOLCMU
Power RatePwr #32 #89
SP+SP+ #37 #92
Perf GradeGrade #11 #78
OffenseOff #34 #75
DefenseDef #5 #70
Spec TeamsST #23 #117
TalentTal #71 #116
Blue ChipsBC% #56 #101
Toledo Notes
(12/11) HC Candle left for UConn? Very odd move
(12/11) Hired HC Mike Jacobs (Mercer). Pot. big upgrade
(11/13) Beat M-OH w/ QB2, not impressive. 3 TOs, 313 yds
(10/31) Killed by Wazzu in bad spot, Run Off awful 61 yds
(10/31) 8-4 best possible finish & must win @ Mia OH
(10/12) Blew another vs BG, OG'd BG by 200 yds & still lost
(10/12) Penalties, turnovers & awful coaching killing Toledo
(9/24) Gleason/Off disappointing. Penalty issues hurting
(9/20) Yearly awful L vs 0-3 WMU, Gleason 89 yds, 2 INT
(8/30) Run Off terrible, Run Def bad in L to UK
(8/20) CB A. Smith a true shutdown & NFL prospect
(7/28) OL 5/5 back. Best in MAC, top 3 in the G5
Toledo Injury Report
Central Michigan Notes
(10/31) QB1 Labas meh but QB2 Flores incredible runner
(10/31) 5-1 outside of paycheck games but lost @ Akron
(8/30) Ground & Pound offense, good vs SJSU 200+
(8/25) QB1 - Joe Labas starting, inj after 6 starts LY
(7/28) Is Drinkall running Army offense?
(6/12) Skill positions very weak on paper. Risers?
(3/26) QB Labas PT starter LY, Glasser has exp
(3/26) RB rebuild, Cornist (Tul) added, some depth
(3/26) WR complete rebuild, 13 rec back. No portals
(3/26) OL 3/5 back, meh LY. 4 portals, 3 via Valpo
(3/26) Def bad LY, return some. 3 portals
(3/26) New HC Drinkall was Army OL coach.
Central Michigan Injury Report
Toledo on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
TOL OffCMU Def
Perf GradePerf #34 #70
SuccessSuc #54 #45
ExplosiveExp #77 #55
PPAPPA #63 #38
PowerPwr #62 #78
SP+SP+ #73 #57
Pts POPPO #55 #27
HavocHav #23 #45
Toledo Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
TOL OffCMU Def
Run GameRun #54 #117
Run SuccessRSuc #70 #56
Run ExplRExp #92 #38
PPAExp #65 #32
Run BlockR Blk #59 -
OL YdsOLY #75 #57
Stuff RateStuff #85 #29
TackleTak -  #36
Toledo Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
TOL OffCMU Def
Pass GamePass #7 #43
Pass SuccessPSuc #39 #43
Pass ExplPExl #62 #64
PPAExp #54 #44
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #100 #21
F7 HavocF7 #54 #61
DB HavocDB #10 #24
Central Michigan on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCatCMU OffTOL Def
Perf GradePerf #75 #5
SuccessSuc #89 #4
ExplosiveExp #110 #21
PPAPPA #70 #2
PowerPwr #100 #16
SP+SP+ #115 #17
Pts POPPO #79 #2
HavocHav #71 #6
Central Michigan Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCat
CMU OffTOL Def
Run GameRun #66 #16
Run SuccessRSuc #103 #28
Run ExplRExp #85 #26
PPAExp #87 #16
Run BlockR Blk #87 -
OL YdsOLY #102 #9
Stuff RateStuff #81 #28
TackleTak -  #36
Central Michigan Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCatCMU OffTOL Def
Pass GamePass #59 #4
Pass SuccessPSuc #41 #1
Pass ExplPExl #40 #108
PPAExp #23 #1
Pass Block/RushP Blk #134 #6
F7 HavocF7 #121 #7
DB HavocDB #16 #17
Program Comparison
CMU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average G5

TOL 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Conditions: Light Snowfall
Temp: 32° - Wind: 8 mph
Rain: 0.008
Rematch from Week 14
Toledo 11.5 (46.5)
Toledo won at Central Michigan this year (21-3)

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Central Michigan last year (37-10)
Toledo beat Central Michigan in 2023 (32-17)
Toledo beat Central Michigan in 2022 (38-17)

  
TOL's OC Mike Hallett (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tucker Gleason20732065%25152197.9
Kalieb Osborne325262%427308.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
DeaMonte Trayanum1821015125.675
Kenji Christian (Tr)10552845.037
Kalieb Osborne5128225.533
Tucker Gleason4614443.135
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Junior Vandeross8210081112.371
Trayvon Rudolph (Tr)39435211.258
Jacob Petersen (Tr)25335313.428
DeaMonte Trayanum21212210.157

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
K'Von Sherman9315561
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren776136
Chris D'Appolonia594124
Andre Fuller4930010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Martez Poynter4310790
Malachi Davis3510681
K'Von Sherman9315561
Jeremiah Peters246432
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Avery Smith4250010
Andre Fuller4930010
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren776136

CMU's OC Jim Chapin (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Joey Labas14720871%18541368.9
Angel H Flores192868%195217.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Nahree Biggins10554025.158
Angel H Flores10752784.937
Trey Cornist (Tr)10446914.529
Brock Townsend8241845.146
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Langston Lewis43596313.977
Tommy Mcintosh31422313.647
Tyson Davis25323212.936
Nahree Biggins1918519.788

View Central Michigan's Full Roster

CMU's DC Sean Cronin (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Kwiatkowski11214324
Dakota Cochran816153
Caleb Spann541004
Kalen Carroll (Tr)492014
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Michael Heldman48171284
Korver Demma289451
Jordan Kwiatkowski11214324
Jaion Jackson454227
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brenden Deasfernandes250008
Jaion Jackson454227
Jordan Kwiatkowski11214324