Toledo at Central Michigan - 2025 Matchup Preview
Toledo logo Toledo Rockets at Central Michigan ChippewasCentral Michigan logo
Saturday, November 29th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Kelly/Shorts Stadium - Mount Pleasant, MI  (Mid-American)

 
Rockets (2 - 1) (3 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (72 - 40)
Avg Score : 40 - 15 (16 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.6 - 1.4 (#3)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 9)
TOL is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Toledo -27   (SP+ TOL -27)

Projected Score: TOL: 39 - CMU: 12 (51)
TOL Win prob: 98% | Cover: 56%
TOL Travel: 145 miles
Chippewas (1 - 2) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Matt Drinkall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 12 - 41 (12 - 41 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.2 - 7.8 (#112)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
 
Toledo's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Toledo at Kentucky+10.048.5L 16 - 24UY
Sat 9/6 Toledo vs Western Kentucky-8.557.5W 45 - 21OY
Sat 9/13 Toledo vs Morgan State-33.554.5W 60 - 0OY
Sat 9/20 Toledo at Western Michigan-14.051.5
Sat 9/27 Toledo vs Akron-30
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Toledo at Bowling Green-17
Sat 10/18 Toledo vs Kent State-30
Sat 10/25 Toledo at Washington State-13
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/5 Toledo vs Northern Illinois-17
Wed 11/12 Toledo at Miami (OH)-18
Sat 11/22 Toledo vs Ball State-32.5
Sat 11/29 Toledo at Central Michigan-27

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule
Central Michigan's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Central Michigan at San José State+11.550.5W 16 - 14UY
Sat 9/6 Central Michigan at Pittsburgh+21.548.5L 17 - 45ON
Sat 9/13 Central Michigan at Michigan+27.542.5L 3 - 63ON
Sat 9/20 Central Michigan vs Wagner-2
Sat 9/27 Central Michigan vs Eastern Michigan+1
Sat 10/4 Central Michigan at Akron+5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Central Michigan at Bowling Green+13
Sat 10/25 Central Michigan vs Massachusetts-5
Sat 11/1 Central Michigan at Western Michigan+6.5
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/12 Central Michigan vs Buffalo+14.5
Wed 11/19 Central Michigan at Kent State+4.5
Sat 11/29 Central Michigan vs Toledo+27

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Central Michigan's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL#42 (.3)43% (71)40.345% (63)2.74 (91)20943% (71)2565.11 (28)#12 (-.08)38% (59)1550% (118)25% (7)3.17 (57)78.711.7
CMU#122 (.05)33% (130)1234% (122)2.69 (100)12232% (124)1173.58 (89)#125 (.34)48% (121)40.745% (99)52% (124)4.7 (114)3811.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL#111 (.11)41% (95)38% (120)2.66 (121)11144% (46)2273.55 (99)#20 (.09)40% (43)42% (60)38% (35)3.87 (79)46.71.31.3
CMU#96 (.15)39% (115)42% (88)3.2 (41)16934% (124)1633.82 (80)#96 (.21)40% (44)41% (48)39% (50)3.6 (45)60.920.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Offense340.31643.3%5.111234652092565.349%50%45%43%10%.3
CMU Defense340.740.748.5%4.71.7 - - - - - 40%59%45%52%10%.34
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Defense3152437.8%3.171.7 - - - - - 52%46%50%25%19%-.08
CMU Offense3121232.9%3.58114239122117363%37%34%32%17%.05

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Toledo331:542344%17%978.711.76.31.7129.3
Central Michigan332:2713.731%44%5.73811.720.7030.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Offense349% (79)45% (63)39.3208.75.38 (26).15 (63)2.74 (91)78% (41)8% (47)0.96 (68)
CMU Defense340% (12)45% (99) - - - - .19 (106)3 (91)67% (53)3% (135)1.02 (84)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Defense352% (91)50% (118) - - - - .1 (87)2.79 (71)63% (43)13% (29)0.74 (23)
CMU Offense363% (11)34% (122)41.312232 (109)- (108)2.69 (100)70% (79)13% (125)0.95 (71)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Offense350% (65)43% (71)20.732.72567.812.47 (23)2 (60).47 (31)1.8 (20)33% (99)28% (96).26 (85)2% (12)1.8 (94)
CMU Defense359% (124)52% (124) - - - - - - 4 (12).5 (120)1.6 (83)28% (113)40% (126).69 (130)7% (48)2 (72)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Defense346% (39)25% (7) - - - - - - 2 (56)-.21 (5)1.7 (99)30% (100)16% (14)-.19 (5)6% (73)2.1 (89)
CMU Offense337% (125)32% (124)1320117.35.991 (123)1 (23).15 (103)1.5 (79)40% (129)17% (130).16 (109)4% (51)2.2 (45)

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 11.65 #48
Toledo's Offense Rating: 14.08 #61
Toledo's Defense Rating: 2.43 #42
2025 Talent Rating: 718.00 #71
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #56
Toledo's 2025 Expected Record: 10.6 - 1.4
Toledo's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.3 #60
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.9 #59
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #53

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 11.65   Central Michigan: -19.135

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 4.3   Central Michigan: -22.9




Central Michigan's Power Ratings
Central Michigan's Power Rating: -19.135 #130
Central Michigan's Offense Rating: 1.25 #129
Central Michigan's Defense Rating: 21.66 #124
2025 Talent Rating: 514.00 #116
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Central Michigan's 2025 Expected Record: 4.2 - 7.8
Central Michigan's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -22.9 #132
Central Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 13.5 #132
Central Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.5 #124

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Toledo Scoring
Offense: 40.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 16
Defense: 15 PPG
Defense on Road: 24

Toledo's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Toledo 39
Central Michigan 12


Total Points: 51

Central Michigan Scoring
Offense: 12 PPG
Offense at Home: 12
Defense: 40.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 40.7

Central Michigan's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/12Toledo37Central Michigan10ToledoToledo -15Toledo52.5Under
202311/24Central Michigan17Toledo32ToledoToledo -12.5Toledo54.5Under
202210/01Toledo38Central Michigan17ToledoToledo -6.5Toledo56.0Under
202110/16Central Michigan26Toledo23Central MichiganToledo -5Central Michigan53.0Under
202012/12Toledo24Central Michigan23ToledoToledo -10Central Michigan54.5Under
201911/29Central Michigan49Toledo7Central MichiganCentral Michigan -14.5Central Michigan64.0Under
201811/23Toledo51Central Michigan13ToledoToledo -19Toledo58.0Over
201710/14Central Michigan10Toledo30ToledoToledo -9.5Toledo55.0Under
201610/22Toledo31Central Michigan17ToledoToledo -10Toledo61.5Under
201511/10Central Michigan23Toledo28ToledoToledo -6Central Michigan54.5Under
201409/27Toledo42Central Michigan28ToledoToledo -15Central Michigan0
201309/21Central Michigan17Toledo38ToledoToledo -14Toledo0
201210/06Toledo50Central Michigan35Toledo
201111/18Central Michigan17Toledo44Toledo
201011/26Toledo42Central Michigan31Toledo
200911/11Central Michigan56Toledo28Central Michigan
200810/25Toledo23Central Michigan24Central Michigan
200709/08Central Michigan52Toledo31Central Michigan
200610/07Toledo20Central Michigan42Central Michigan
200510/29Central Michigan21Toledo17Central Michigan
200410/23Toledo27Central Michigan22Toledo
200310/18Central Michigan13Toledo31Toledo
200211/09Toledo44Central Michigan17Toledo
200109/22Central Michigan28Toledo52Toledo
200009/29Toledo41Central Michigan0Toledo
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Central Michigan751 Overs
Toledo1879 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams16 - 97 - 55 - 22 - 3
Road Teams9 - 165 - 73 - 22 - 5

(#48) Toledo Info
Power Rating: 11.65 #48
Offense Rating: 14.08 #61
Defense Rating: 2.43 #42
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.3 #60
Offense SP+ Rating: 28.9 #59
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #53
Talent Rating: 718.00 #71
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #56
Expected Record: 10.6 - 1.4

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 43%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 5.11 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Bad Pass Success 43%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 38%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.17 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 50%
Great Pass Def Success 25%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Toledo has lost 8 straight
Toledo has lost 5 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

Toledo Notes
(8/20) CB A. Smith a true shutdown & NFL prospect
(7/28) OL 5/5 back. Best in MAC, top 3 in the G5
(7/28) Def added 9 portals, some key pieces at DE/LB
(7/28) Secondary should be really good, great CBs
(7/27) WR Vandeross a weapon, Rudolph (NIU) big add
(5/11) One of CFB's most exp'd OLs, 95% is returning
(3/22) QB Gleason 2nd yr starter. Good, but TO prone
(3/22) RBs Walendzak back, Trayanum (UK) nice add
(3/22) Candle good HC, but drops bad games a lot
(3/22) Class of the MAC TY, OC/DC both vet's.

Toledo Highlights
Toledo is Undefeated vs Spread

Toledo has Really Good Running Game (#28)
Toledo offense is good in red zone (#28)
Toledo defense does not give up big plays (#16)
Toledo has a good pass defense (#7)
Toledo Front 7 is disruptive (#29)

Toledo Deficiencies
Toledo Commits a Lot of Penalties (#129)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatCMUTOL
OverallOver#110#32
OffenseOff#104#42
DefenseDef#106#25
Special TeamsST#71#82
PassingPass#88#12
RushingRush#89#38
Run BlockRBLK#113#53
Pass BlockPBLK#120#78
Route RunningWR Rt#50#56
TacklingTkl#99#43
Run DefenseR Def#106#22
Pass Rush DefPRush#72#54
Coverage DefCov#111#38

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Central Michigan last year (37-10)
Toledo beat Central Michigan in 2023 (32-17)
Toledo beat Central Michigan in 2022 (38-17)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: TOL | CMU
Depth Chart: TOL | CMU
Rosters: TOL | CMU
(#130) Central Michigan Info
Power Rating: -19.135 #130
Offense Rating: 1.25 #129
Defense Rating: 21.66 #124
Overall SP+ Rating: -22.9 #132
Offense SP+ Rating: 13.5 #132
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.5 #124
Talent Rating: 514.00 #116
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Expected Record: 4.2 - 7.8

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 63%, Pass: 37%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 33%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.58 PPO
Awful Run Success 34%
Awful Pass Success 32%
Awful OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 48%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.7 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 45%
Awful Pass Def Success 52%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

Central Michigan has lost 10 straight
Central Michigan has lost 4 straight at Home
Record at home: 0 - 0 (0 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

Central Michigan Notes
(8/25) QB1 - Joe Labas starting, inj after 6 starts LY
(7/28) Is Drinkall running Army offense?
(6/12) Skill positions very weak on paper. Risers?
(3/26) QB Labas PT starter LY, Glasser has exp
(3/26) RB rebuild, Cornist (Tul) added, some depth
(3/26) WR complete rebuild, 13 rec back. No portals
(3/26) OL 3/5 back, meh LY. 4 portals, 3 via Valpo
(3/26) Def bad LY, return some. 3 portals
(3/26) New HC Drinkall was Army OL coach.
(3/26) New OC Chapin had success at E Wash

Central Michigan Highlights
Central Michigan defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)

Central Michigan Deficiencies
Central Michigan has a really bad Offense
Central Michigan has a really bad Offense at Home
Central Michigan Can Not Run the Ball (#102)
Central Michigan offense is really bad (#130)
Central Michigan run game is really bad (#122)
Central Michigan pass game is really bad (#124)
Central Michigan offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Central Michigan Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Central Michigan does not Sack the QB (#122)
Central Michigan has a bad defense (#121)
Central Michigan has a bad red zone defense (#114)


  
Toledo's OC Mike Hallett
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tucker Gleason436962%599418.7
John Alan Richter152365%139316.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
DeaMonte Trayanum3924846.475
Kenji Christian (Tr)2313926.033
Willie Shaw III84906.120
Kalieb Osborne74917.017
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Junior Vandeross18255414.271
Javon Brown6133022.246
Jacob Petersen (Tr)582016.426
Trayvon Rudolph (Tr)777011.020

View Toledo's Full Roster
Toledo's DC Vince Kehres
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
K'Von Sherman234100
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren141001
Braden Awls131001
Anthony Dunn100021
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Doran Ray91100
K'Von Sherman234100
Louce Julien (Tr)92110
Jeremiah Peters92100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Andre Fuller70002
Braden Awls131001
Anthony Dunn100021

Central Michigan's OC Jim Chapin
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Joey Labas203263%181115.7
Angel H Flores121867%93005.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Trey Cornist (Tr)3112814.129
Angel H Flores3012404.120
Nahree Biggins2811404.117
Brock Townsend6801.34
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tommy Mcintosh585017.047
Justin Ruffin Jr.64207.018
Langston Lewis339013.021
Tyson Davis63606.013

View Central Michigan's Full Roster
Central Michigan's DC Sean Cronin
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Kwiatkowski171001
Elijah Gordon160001
Dakota Cochran150010
Caleb Spann150002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Michael Heldman82100
Fernando Sanchez III81110
Jordan Kwiatkowski171001
Keshawn Hayden40000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caleb Spann150002
Kalen Carroll (Tr)140002
Daniel Bennett30002