California at Louisville - 2025 Matchup Preview
California logo California Golden Bears at Louisville Cardinals(#15)Louisville logo
Saturday, November 8th 2025 (7:00 PM EST)
Louisville -18.5 (48.5) (-1100)  Open: -17.5
California 29 - Louisville: 26  (ACC)

 
Golden Bears (7 - 6) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Justin Wilcox (42 - 49)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (24 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.6 - 5.4 (#60)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
LOU is playing their 4th straight game
CAL is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Louisville -15.5  (SP+ LOU -15)

Projected Score: CAL: 19 - LOU: 34 (53)
LOU Win prob: 91% | Cover: 44%
CAL Travel: 1973 miles, 3 hrs behind
Cardinals (9 - 4) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (18 - 8)
Avg Score : 30 - 21 (34 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
 
California's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 California at Oregon State+3.051.5W 34 - 15UY
Sat 9/6 California vs Texas Southern-44.554.5W 35 - 3UN
Sat 9/13 California vs Minnesota+3.041.5W 27 - 14UY
Sat 9/20 California at San Diego State-14.047.5L 0 - 34UN
Sat 9/27 California at Boston College+6.054.5W 28 - 24UY
Sat 10/4 California vs Duke+3.554.5L 21 - 45ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 California vs North Carolina-7.545.5W 21 - 18UN
Fri 10/24 California at Virginia Tech+6.550.5L 34 - 42ON
Sat 11/1 California vs Virginia+6.552.5L 21 - 31UN
Sat 11/8 California at Louisville+18.548.5W 29 - 26OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 California at Stanford-4.547.5L 10 - 31UN
Sat 11/29 California vs SMU+13.553.5W 38 - 35OY
Wed 12/24 California at Hawai'i+1.550.5L 31 - 35ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for California's Schedule
Louisville's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Louisville vs Eastern Kentucky-37.557.5W 51 - 17ON
Fri 9/5 Louisville vs James Madison-15.057.0W 28 - 14UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Louisville vs Bowling Green-26.550.5W 40 - 17ON
Sat 9/27 Louisville at Pittsburgh-3.053.5W 34 - 27OY
Sat 10/4 Louisville vs Virginia-6.559.5L 27 - 30UN
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 Louisville at Miami+10.549.5W 24 - 21UY
Sat 10/25 Louisville vs Boston College-25.554.5W 38 - 24ON
Sat 11/1 Louisville at Virginia Tech-10.552.5W 28 - 16UY
Sat 11/8 Louisville vs California-18.548.5L 26 - 29ON
Fri 11/14 Louisville vs Clemson-1.550.5L 19 - 20UN
Sat 11/22 Louisville at SMU+4.049.5L 6 - 38UN
Sat 11/29 Louisville vs Kentucky-1.045.5W 41 - 0UY
Tue 12/23 Louisville vs Toledo-12.544.5W 27 - 22ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Louisville's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CAL#98 (.12)41% (95)25.338% (119)2.64 (120)8343% (57)2753.7 (66)#71 (.17)42% (79)27.247% (118)38% (34)3.69 (71)64.61.21.1
LOU#84 (.15)45% (44)29.950% (8)2.75 (105)16441% (74)2213.62 (77)#15 (.05)37% (16)21.238% (15)37% (19)3.38 (43)63.21.31.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CAL#79 (.17)42% (88)40% (104)2.68 (120)12243% (57)2593.07 (125)#48 (.14)40% (52)41% (53)40% (67)3.23 (20)59.70.81.7
LOU#15 (.31)46% (26)48% (20)3.09 (56)17345% (30)2514.27 (31)#73 (.18)40% (49)40% (44)40% (65)3.98 (87)46.10.81.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CAL Offense1325.323.740.6%3.71.220358832752.839%60%38%43%16%.12
LOU Defense1321.218.936.7%3.381.5 - - - - - 46%53%38%37%17%.05
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CAL Defense1327.229.642.3%3.691.1 - - - - - 46%51%47%38%15%.17
LOU Offense1329.933.844.7%3.621.3203851642215.144%53%50%41%17%.15

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
California1330:1419.940%52%7.864.61.21.14.61.5027.1
Louisville1330:1219.635%64%6.963.21.31.55.92.4232.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CAL Offense1339% (131)38% (119)29.682.52.821 (78)-.04 (133)2.64 (120)70% (81)10% (74)0.89 (102)
LOU Defense1346% (17)38% (15) - - - - .07 (51)2.74 (41)75% (97)11% (38)0.95 (63)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CAL Defense1346% (27)47% (118) - - - - .21 (122)3.32 (129)85% (131)8% (116)0.98 (83)
LOU Offense1344% (111)50% (8)32.31645.125 (70).21 (21)2.75 (105)65% (108)10% (98)1.08 (28)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CAL Offense1360% (6)43% (57)24.838.8275.37.111.120 (61)10 (119).23 (78)1.5 (108)32% (77)33% (32).36 (49)7% (105)1.9 (113)
LOU Defense1353% (120)37% (19) - - - - - - 14 (6).06 (6)1.4 (7)34% (24)24% (8).11 (9)7% (38)1.9 (23)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CAL Defense1351% (101)38% (34) - - - - - - 8 (55).14 (23)1.4 (10)32% (64)26% (23).16 (15)7% (21)1.7 (9)
LOU Offense1353% (35)41% (74)20.632.2220.66.910.718 (75)9 (60).13 (119)1.4 (131)28% (21)27% (104).14 (124)6% (90)1.9 (107)

California's Power Ratings
California's Power Rating: 1.00  #63
California's Offense Rating: 14.12  #61
California's Defense Rating: 13.12  #63
2025 Talent Rating: 794.00  #55
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #88
California's 2025 Expected Record: 7.6 - 5.4
California's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.4  #85
California's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.8  #87
California's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.1  #75

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
California: 1.00   Louisville: 14.14

SP+ Ratings Matchup
California: -3.4   Louisville: 11.7




Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 14.14  #36
Louisville's Offense Rating: 17.35  #43
Louisville's Defense Rating: 5.77  #27
2025 Talent Rating: 788.00  #57
Blue Chip Ratio: 7  #46
Louisville's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Louisville's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.7  #30
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.8  #43
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5  #28

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


California Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.7
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.6

California's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Louisville 34
California 19


Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
Louisville 34
California 27

Total Points: 61

Based on Entire Season
Louisville 30
California 22

Total Points: 52
Louisville Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.8
Defense: 21.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.9

Louisville's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 7 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 7 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/08Louisville26California29Louisville -18.5California48.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Louisville001 Overs
California110 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 01 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#63) CAL at (#36) LOU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatCALLOU
Net PPPPPP #93 #29
Power RatePwr #63 #36
SP+SP+ #85 #30
Perf GradeGrade #87 #16
OffenseOff #84 #49
DefenseDef #62 #11
Spec TeamsST #122 #70
TalentTal #55 #57
Blue ChipsBC% #88 #46
California Notes
(11/23) Wilcox fired, Rolovich interim HC for SMU finale
(10/22) QB JKS hurt shoulder in N Car game, monitor vs VT
(9/21) Crash down to earth 34-0 beatdown by SDSU
(9/21) 3 TOs, 6-17 3rd down, Run Off awful. Shocking L
(9/14) Sagapolutele incredible and entire Off so far
(8/31) QB Sagapolutele real deal, great in opener
(8/31) Def much improved? Great Run Def vs Oreg St
(8/18) QB1 Fr. Sagapolutele beat out Brown (OSU)
(6/4) RBs High (UTSA), Johnson (SMU), Raphel (NC St)
(6/4) OL bad LY. 2/5 back + 6 exp'd portal adds
(5/11) One of the most exp'd OLs, but 64% from portals
(4/18) Losses 4/5 QB, 11/19 WR, 10/13 RB, 4/5 OL
California Injury Report
Louisville Notes
(11/21) QB Moss is ? for SMU game.
(11/16) Bad L vs Clemson, QB Moss culture comments??
(11/15) 3 losses as home favs in last 6 games
(11/4) RB1 I Brown out weeks, maybe SMU/UK (leg)
(11/1) Sluggish vs VT, Run Off 235 big w/ Moss off night
(10/17) Special teams all around one of the best in CFB
(10/17) Brohm special vs Miami, Run Off enough, Def great
(9/27) 17-0 comeback win at Pitt. Moss good, RBs/OL bad
(9/17) Starting LB S Clark likely out for season (leg)
(9/5) Good battle with JMU, Run Off needs work
(7/28) Def meh LY, added 17 via portal. DL & DB heavy
(7/17) DBs all new, starters come from 8 portals.
Louisville Injury Report
California on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
CAL OffLOU Def
PPPOffPPP #101 #40
Perf GradePerf #84 #11
SuccessSuc #95 #16
ExplosiveExp #65 #26
PPAPPA #98 #15
PowerPwr #61 #27
SP+SP+ #87 #28
Pts POPPO #66 #43
HavocHav #91 #33
California Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
CAL OffLOU Def
Run GameRun #124 #41
Run SuccessRSuc #119 #15
Run ExplRExp #102 #63
PPAExp #133 #51
Run BlockR Blk #119 -
OL YdsOLY #120 #41
Stuff RateStuff #58 #52
TackleTak -  #39
California Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
CAL OffLOU Def
Pass GamePass #26 #20
Pass SuccessPSuc #57 #19
Pass ExplPExl #108 #7
PPAExp #78 #6
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #82 #3
F7 HavocF7 #74 #38
DB HavocDB #105 #38
Louisville on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatLOU OffCAL Def
PPPDefPPP #81 #30
Perf GradePerf #49 #62
SuccessSuc #44 #79
ExplosiveExp #90 #31
PPAPPA #84 #71
PowerPwr #43 #63
SP+SP+ #43 #75
Pts POPPO #77 #71
HavocHav #93 #80
Louisville Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
LOU OffCAL Def
Run GameRun #10 #128
Run SuccessRSuc #8 #118
Run ExplRExp #28 #83
PPAExp #21 #122
Run BlockR Blk #66 -
OL YdsOLY #105 #129
Stuff RateStuff #122 #134
TackleTak -  #109
Louisville Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatLOU OffCAL Def
Pass GamePass #83 #9
Pass SuccessPSuc #74 #34
Pass ExplPExl #131 #10
PPAExp #119 #23
Pass Block/RushP Blk #69 #77
F7 HavocF7 #98 #116
DB HavocDB #90 #21
Program Comparison
LOU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

CAL 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Papa John's Cardinal Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 59°
Rematch from Week 11
Louisville -18.5 (48.5)
California won at Louisville this year (29-26)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
CAL's OC Bryan Harsin (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Tr)31549164%34461897.0
Devin Brown (Tr)4757%48116.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kendrick Raphael (Tr)233952134.133
LJ Johnson Jr. (Tr)3310823.312
Brandon High239814.322
Anthony League113813.58
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jacob De Jesus (Tr)107102269.641
Trond Grizzell55788114.335
Mason Mini (Tr)35387411.151
Quaron Adams (Tr)20273113.739

View California's Full Roster

CAL's DC Vacant (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cade Uluave9712344
Luke Ferrelli915111
Dru Polidore623003
Aidan Keanaaina563200
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
T.J. Bush (Tr)3911541
Cade Uluave9712344
Chris Victor (Tr)245340
Jayden Wayne (Tr)265350
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brent Austin (Tr)4210013
Hezekiah Masses (Tr)4710012
Derek Wilkins120018

LOU's OC Brian Brohm (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Miller Moss (Tr)24438064%26791677.1
Deuce Adams152171%112005.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Isaac Brown10188478.878
Keyjuan Brown9670467.367
Braxton Jennings3720015.422
Shaun Boykins3719015.126
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Bell72917612.764
Caullin Lacy60635210.648
Dacari Collins (Tr)13219116.836
Jaleel Skinner2120429.733

View Louisville's Full Roster

LOU's DC Ron English (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Quinn958314
D'Angelo Hutchinson843025
JoJo Evans (Tr)643134
Clev Lubin (Tr)5913873
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Clev Lubin (Tr)5913873
Wesley Bailey (Tr)397650
Adonijah Green316440
TJ Quinn958314
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rene Konga295225
D'Angelo Hutchinson843025
TJ Quinn958314