Air Force at Louisville - 2021 Matchup Preview

Air Force Falcons vs Louisville Cardinals

Tuesday, December 28th 2021 (3:15 PM EST)
Air Force -1 (55.0) (105) Open: -1.0 | 55.5
Air Force 31 - Louisville: 28 (SERVPRO First Responder Bowl)

Falcons (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (104 - 73)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (32 - 33 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: -0 (SP+ LOU -0)
Projected Score: AFA: 26 - LOU: 32 (58)
AFA Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
AFA Travel: 620 miles, 1 hrs behind

Cardinals (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Scott Satterfield (14 - 13)
Avg Score : 30 - 21 (34 - 19 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
AFA Players
LOU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Air Force's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Air Force vs Lafayette	-40.5	49.5	W 35 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/11	Air Force at Navy	-6.0	40.0	W 23 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/18	Air Force vs Utah State	-9.0	54.0	L 45 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/25	Air Force vs Florida Atlantic	-3.5	54.0	W 31 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Air Force at New Mexico	-11.5	46.0	W 38 - 10	O	Y
Sat 10/9	Air Force vs Wyoming	-5.5	46.5	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/16	Air Force at Boise State	+3.0	52.0	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/23	Air Force vs San Diego State	-3.0	38.5	L 14 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/6	Air Force vs Army	-2.5	37.5	L 14 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/13	Air Force at Colorado State	-3.0	45.0	W 35 - 21	O	Y
Fri 11/19	Air Force at Nevada	-1.5	53.5	W 41 - 39	O	Y
Fri 11/26	Air Force vs UNLV	-18.5	49.5	W 48 - 14	O	Y
Tue 12/28	Air Force vs Louisville	-1.0	55.0	W 31 - 28	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule

Louisville's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Mon 9/6	Louisville vs Ole Miss	+9.0	74.5	L 24 - 43	U	N
Sat 9/11	Louisville vs Eastern Kentucky	-30.0	62.5	W 30 - 3	U	N
Fri 9/17	Louisville vs UCF	+7.0	67.5	W 42 - 35	O	Y
Sat 9/25	Louisville at Florida State	+1.5	61.0	W 31 - 23	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Louisville at Wake Forest	+7.0	64.5	L 34 - 37	O	Y
Sat 10/9	Louisville vs Virginia	-2.5	69.5	L 33 - 34	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/23	Louisville vs Boston College	-4.0	57.5	W 28 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Louisville at NC State	+6.0	57.0	L 13 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/6	Louisville vs Clemson	+3.5	46.0	L 24 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/13	Louisville vs Syracuse	-3.0	55.5	W 41 - 3	U	Y
Thu 11/18	Louisville at Duke	-20.0	60.0	W 62 - 22	O	Y
Sat 11/27	Louisville vs Kentucky	-3.0	58.0	L 21 - 52	O	N
Tue 12/28	Louisville vs Air Force	+1.0	55.0	L 28 - 31	O	N

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA	.33	53%	29.8	54%	3.83	306	49%	84	4.06	.12	43%	30.3	43%	44%	2.7	40.8	1.3	1.3
LOU	.27	43%	29.9	43%	2.82	200	43%	244	3.75	.16	40%	21.2	41%	39%	3.58	52.5	2.2	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
LOU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Offense	6	29.8	32.2	53.3%	4.06	1.3	21	389	306	84	5.9	82%	18%	54%	49%	10%	.33
LOU Defense	11	21.2	18.9	40.1%	3.58	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	57%	43%	41%	39%	17%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Defense	6	30.3	32.8	43.4%	2.7	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	60%	40%	43%	44%	10%	.12
LOU Offense	11	29.9	33.8	42.8%	3.75	2.2	21	444	200	244	5.2	54%	46%	43%	43%	19%	.27

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Air Force	6	32:30	21.3	49%	73%	4.5	40.8	1.3	1.3	2.8	1.2	0	27.9
Louisville	11	31:28	20.8	45%	54%	6.3	52.5	2.2	1.1	5.6	1.9	0	26.8

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Offense	6	82%	54%	52	305.7	5.9	16	.31	3.83	80%	7%	0.97
LOU Defense	11	57%	41%	-	-	-	-	.07	2.87	71%	11%	0.97

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Defense	6	60%	43%	-	-	-	-	.04	3.02	71%	6%	0.85
LOU Offense	11	54%	43%	38.2	199.9	5.2	21	.25	2.82	72%	15%	1.31

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Offense	6	18%	49%	5.7	10.2	83.7	8.2	14.8	3	3	.4	1.5	23%	34%	.38	3%	1.8
LOU Defense	11	43%	39%	-	-	-	-	-	-	5	.28	1.8	36%	32%	.38	7%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Defense	6	40%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	5	.24	1.6	29%	37%	.44	4%	1.9
LOU Offense	11	46%	43%	18.4	28.6	244.2	8.5	13.3	20	12	.3	1.7	35%	37%	.54	4%	2.3

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: NR
Air Force's Offense Rating: NR
Air Force's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #139
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Air Force's 2021 Expected Record: -
Air Force's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.4 #54
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #57
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.0 #33

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: Louisville: 3.9

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: 7.4 Louisville: 7.8

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 3.9 NR
Louisville's Offense Rating: NR
Louisville's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Louisville's 2021 Expected Record: -
Louisville's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.8 #52
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.9 #24
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #64

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 32.2
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Air Force's 2021 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Louisville 32
Air Force 26

Projected Total Points: 58

Louisville Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.8
Defense: 21.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.9

Louisville's 2021 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2021	12/28	Louisville	28	Air Force	31	Air Force -1	Air Force	55.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Louisville	0	0	1 Overs
Air Force	1	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0

Air Force Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2021	Responder Bowl	Air Force vs Louisville	-1.0	55.0	W 31 - 28
2019	It Bowl	Air Force vs Washington State	-3.0	73.0	W 31 - 21
2016	N/A	Air Force vs South Alabama	-14.0	54.0	W 45 - 21
2015	Forces Bowl	Air Force vs California	+6.5		L 36 - 55

Louisville Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2021	Responder Bowl	Louisville vs Air Force	+1.0	55.0	L 28 - 31
2019	City Bowl	Louisville vs Mississippi State	+5.0	64.5	W 38 - 28
2017	N/A	Louisville vs Mississippi State	-6.5	62.0	L 27 - 31
2016	N/A	Louisville vs LSU	+3.0	59.0	L 9 - 29
2015	N/A	Louisville vs Texas A&M	+2.5		W 27 - 21

(#) AFA at (#) LOU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	AFA	LOU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#54	#52
Perf GradeGrade	#3	#39
OffenseOff	#2	#17
DefenseDef	#36	#96
Spec TeamsST	#66	#53
TalentTal	#139	#58
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Air Force Injury Report

Louisville Injury Report

Air Force on Offense


CategoryCat	AFA Off	LOU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#2	#96
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#57	#64
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Air Force Run Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	LOU Def
Run GameRun	#27	#106
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#2	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#72

Air Force Pass Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	LOU Def
Pass GamePass	#31	#48
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#111	#108
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Louisville on Offense


CategoryCat	LOU Off	AFA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#17	#36
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#24	#33
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Louisville Run Game


CategoryCat	LOU Off	AFA Def
Run GameRun	#48	#81
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#16	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#8

Louisville Pass Game


CategoryCat	LOU Off	AFA Def
Pass GamePass	#28	#56
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#11	#13
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
LOU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

AFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'21 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Air Force 1.0 (55.0)
Air Force won at Louisville this year (31-28)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC John Rudzinski (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

LOU's OC Scott Satterfield (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Louisville's Full Roster

LOU's DC Bryan Brown (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD