Western Kentucky at Toledo Game Matchup

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Toledo Rockets

Saturday, September 6th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Glass Bowl - Toledo, OH

Hilltoppers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (48 - 31)
Avg Score : 25 - 25 (25 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 5 (#51)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)

Our Line: Toledo -13 (SP+ TOL -4)
Projected Score: WKU: 21 - TOL: 34 (51)
TOL Win prob: 80% | Cover: 46%
WKU Travel: 357 miles, 1 hrs behind

Rockets (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (72 - 40)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (31 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.6 - 2.4 (#12)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 11)

Matchup
Schedules
WKU Players
TOL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Western Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/22	Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston	-7.5	0.0
Fri 8/29	Western Kentucky vs North Alabama	-11.5
Sat 9/6	Western Kentucky at Toledo	+13
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	Western Kentucky vs Nevada	-8
Sat 9/27	Western Kentucky at Missouri State	-4
Fri 10/3	Western Kentucky at Delaware	-2.5
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14	Western Kentucky vs Florida International	-5.5
Tue 10/21	Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech	-2
Sat 11/1	Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State	-9.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee	-8.5
Sat 11/22	Western Kentucky at LSU	+40
Sat 11/29	Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State	-5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 10
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 10
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Western Kentucky's Schedule

Toledo's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	Toledo at Kentucky	+11.5	0.0
Sat 9/6	Toledo vs Western Kentucky	-13
Sat 9/13	Toledo vs Morgan State	-22
Sat 9/20	Toledo at Western Michigan	-13.5
Sat 9/27	Toledo vs Akron	-20.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Toledo at Bowling Green	-9.5
Sat 10/18	Toledo vs Kent State	-27.5
Sat 10/25	Toledo at Washington State	-6
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/5	Toledo vs Northern Illinois	-12
Wed 11/12	Toledo at Miami (OH)	-7.5
Sat 11/22	Toledo vs Ball State	-23.5
Sat 11/29	Toledo at Central Michigan	-9.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 10
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 10
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WKU	#66 (.19)	42% (83)	24.9	38% (117)	2.78 (108)	110	45% (33)	265	3.83 (78)	#95 (.21)	45% (102)	24.6	48% (113)	40% (60)	3.66 (54)	41.3	1.7	1.5
TOL	#111 (.11)	41% (95)	28.3	38% (120)	2.66 (121)	111	44% (46)	227	3.55 (99)	#20 (.09)	40% (43)	23.2	42% (60)	38% (35)	3.87 (79)	46.7	1.3	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WKU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TOL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WKU Offense	14	24.9	24.9	41.8%	3.83	1.7	19	374	110	265	3.5	45%	55%	38%	45%	16%	.19
TOL Defense	13	23.2	21.3	39.8%	3.87	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	42%	38%	19%	.09

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WKU Defense	14	24.6	33.9	44.7%	3.66	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	63%	36%	48%	40%	13%	.21
TOL Offense	13	28.3	31.2	40.8%	3.55	1.3	18	339	111	227	3.5	46%	53%	38%	44%	16%	.11

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Western Kentucky	14	27:52	19.3	41%	59%	4.1	41.3	1.7	1.5	4.9	1.6	0	29.7
Toledo	13	25:06	18.4	36%	50%	5.4	46.7	1.3	1.3	6.2	2.1	2	31.4

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WKU Offense	14	45% (105)	38% (117)	31.1	109.7	3.5	14 (98)	.01 (121)	2.78 (108)	69% (100)	11% (87)	0.95 (75)
TOL Defense	13	52% (83)	42% (60)	-	-	-	-	.11 (66)	3.01 (69)	77% (89)	12% (31)	0.95 (48)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WKU Defense	14	63% (134)	48% (113)	-	-	-	-	.19 (103)	3.36 (116)	77% (93)	9% (88)	0.9 (35)
TOL Offense	13	46% (96)	38% (120)	31.5	111.3	3.5	12 (114)	-.04 (127)	2.66 (121)	57% (130)	10% (74)	0.83 (125)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WKU Offense	14	55% (26)	45% (33)	22.1	33.5	264.6	7.9	12	28 (15)	12 (85)	.36 (28)	1.6 (59)	33% (91)	30% (91)	.29 (89)	6% (56)	1.9 (100)
TOL Defense	13	48% (51)	38% (35)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.08 (11)	1.5 (29)	34% (38)	29% (39)	.22 (34)	7% (35)	2 (43)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WKU Defense	14	36% (1)	40% (60)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.29 (99)	1.8 (128)	28% (116)	29% (47)	.23 (37)	3% (132)	2.1 (92)
TOL Offense	13	53% (41)	44% (46)	19.2	31	227.2	7.3	11.8	26 (26)	7 (26)	.26 (67)	1.6 (61)	31% (65)	27% (108)	.18 (115)	6% (76)	2 (68)

Western Kentucky's Power Ratings
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: -17.79 #116
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 5.91 #119
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 23.70 #114
2025 Talent Rating: 504.00 #105
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #82
Western Kentucky's 2025 Expected Record: 7.0 - 5.0
Western Kentucky's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.8 #85
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.4 #102
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #68

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 385.5
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29

Power Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: -17.79 Toledo: 1.095

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: -5.8 Toledo: -1.4

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 1.095 #68
Toledo's Offense Rating: 13.54 #72
Toledo's Defense Rating: 14.95 #68
2025 Talent Rating: 678.00 #76
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #62
Toledo's 2025 Expected Record: 9.6 - 2.4
Toledo's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.4 #71
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #77
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #63

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 528.62
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29

Western Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 24.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.9
Defense: 24.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 33.9

Western Kentucky's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Toledo 34
Western Kentucky 21

Projected Total Points: 51

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.2
Defense: 23.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.3

Toledo's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/21	Western Kentucky	26	Toledo	21	Western Kentucky	Toledo -2	Western Kentucky	60.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Toledo	0	0	0 Overs
Western Kentucky	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0

(#116) Western Kentucky Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -17.79 #116
Offense Rating: 5.91 #119
Defense Rating: 23.70 #114
Overall SP+ Rating: -5.8 #85
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.4 #102
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #68
Talent Rating: 504.00 #105
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #82
Expected Record: 7.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.83 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Good Pass Success 45%
Avg OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 45%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.66 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 48%
Avg Pass Def Success 40%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Western Kentucky Notes
(5/2) WR Henry (FCS W Ill) 1,179 yds, 6 TD LY
(3/22) Def avg CUSA, but must rebuild most
(3/22) Def portals 7 DL, 1 LB, 5 DBs.
(3/22) Almost 60% new roster, new OC/DC.
(3/22) New OC Bowie (Alb. Chr.) brought QB McIvor
(3/22) QB McIvor (3k yds/30 TD) a big find for '25
(3/22) RB rebuild. Hart has exp, Hampton some
(3/22) WR complete rebuild. Took 5 portals + 2 TEs
(3/22) OL rebuild. 5 portal adds. Very ?

Western Kentucky Ratings Matchup Toledo

Power #116

#68

Off #119

#72

Def #114

#68

Talent #105

#76

SP+ #85

#71

SP+ Off #102

#77

SP+ Def #68

#63

Previous Matchups
Western Kentucky beat Toledo last year (26-21)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Glass Bowl
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: WKU | TOL
Depth Chart: WKU | TOL
Rosters: WKU | TOL

(#68) Toledo Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 1.095 #68
Offense Rating: 13.54 #72
Defense Rating: 14.95 #68
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.4 #71
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #77
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #63
Talent Rating: 678.00 #76
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #62
Expected Record: 9.6 - 2.4

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.55 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Avg Pass Success 44%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 40%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.87 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 42%
Good Pass Def Success 38%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Toledo Notes
(5/11) One of CFB's most exp'd OLs, 95% is returning
(5/2) WR Vandeross a weapon, have decent depth
(3/22) QB Gleason 2nd yr starter. Good, but TO prone
(3/22) RBs Walendzak back, Trayanum (UK) nice add
(3/22) OL 5/5 back. Poss best G5 line, best MAC
(3/22) Candle good HC, but drops bad games a lot
(3/22) Class of the MAC TY, OC/DC both vet's.

Western Kentucky's OC Rick Bowie

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Maverick McIvor (Tr)	312	496	63%	3847	30	7	7.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
George Hart III	44	204	2	4.6	30
Jalen Hampton	11	57	0	5.2	14
K.D. Hutchinson	8	51	0	6.4	42
John Cannon (Tr)	1	17	0	17.0	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jairus Mack (Tr)	19	418	0	22.0	59
K.D. Hutchinson	26	392	3	15.1	74
Isaiah Myers (Tr)	13	237	3	18.2	37
Noah Meyers	7	123	1	17.6	24

View Western Kentucky's Full Roster

Western Kentucky's DC DaVon Brown

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jaylen Lewis (Tr)	43	2	0	5
Demarko Williams	37	2	0	1
Kent Robinson	33	4	2	4
Braxton Myers (Tr)	31	2	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kent Robinson	33	4	2	0	4
Jayden Gray (Tr)	14	3	2	1	1
Dominic Oliver (Tr)	15	2	1	1	0
Jaylen Lewis (Tr)	43	2	0	0	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jaylen Lewis (Tr)	43	2	0	5
Kent Robinson	33	4	2	4
Braxton Myers (Tr)	31	2	0	2

Toledo's OC Mike Hallett

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tucker Gleason	207	335	62%	2457	22	7	7.3
John Alan Richter	43	67	64%	497	4	0	7.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Connor Walendzak	122	457	1	3.7	32
Tucker Gleason	88	330	6	3.8	35
Willie Shaw III	46	190	3	4.1	13
Trayvon Rudolph (Tr)	14	179	2	12.8	60

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Junior Vandeross	73	763	4	10.5	73
Trayvon Rudolph (Tr)	37	403	1	10.9	48
Thomas Zsiros	12	148	1	12.3	25
Eric Holley	14	126	0	9.0	40

View Toledo's Full Roster

Toledo's DC Vince Kehres

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Braden Awls	67	3	1	0	7
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren	61	2	1	0	4
Avery Smith	50	1	0	0	13
Louce Julien (Tr)	43	7	4	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Anthony Dunn	25	7	4	2	0
Louce Julien (Tr)	43	7	4	1	1
Malachi Davis	19	4	2	1	0
Esean Carter	16	2	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Avery Smith	50	1	0	13
Braden Awls	67	3	1	7
Nasir Bowers	35	2	0	4