Western Kentucky at Toledo - 2025 Matchup Preview

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Toledo Rockets

Saturday, September 6th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Toledo -8.5 (57.5) (-220) Open: -5.5 | 59.5
Toledo 45 - Western Kentucky: 21

Hilltoppers (9 - 4) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (48 - 31)
Avg Score : 30 - 23 (25 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 4.3 (#36)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)

Our Line: Toledo -12.5 (SP+ TOL -8)
Projected Score: WKU: 20 - TOL: 33 (53)
TOL Win prob: 71% | Cover: 46%
WKU Travel: 357 miles, 1 hrs behind

Rockets (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (72 - 40)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (46 - 8 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 11)

Matchup
Schedules
WKU Players
TOL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Western Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/23	Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston	-9.5	60.5	W 41 - 24	O	Y
Sat 8/30	Western Kentucky vs North Alabama	-27.5	60.5	W 55 - 6	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Western Kentucky at Toledo	+8.5	57.5	L 21 - 45	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	Western Kentucky vs Nevada	-8.5	54.5	W 31 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Western Kentucky at Missouri State	-3.5	59.5	W 27 - 22	U	Y
Fri 10/3	Western Kentucky at Delaware	+2.5	62.5	W 27 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14	Western Kentucky vs Florida International	-9.5	55.5	L 6 - 25	U	N
Tue 10/21	Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech	+5.5	49.5	W 28 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/1	Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State	-7.5	53.5	W 35 - 16	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee	-13.5	51.5	W 42 - 26	O	Y
Sat 11/22	Western Kentucky at LSU	+24.5	52.0	L 10 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/29	Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State	-1.5	56.5	L 34 - 37	O	N
Tue 12/23	Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss	+3.0	59.0	W 27 - 16	U	Y

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Western Kentucky's Schedule

Toledo's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Toledo at Kentucky	+10.0	48.5	L 16 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Toledo vs Western Kentucky	-8.5	57.5	W 45 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Toledo vs Morgan State	-33.5	54.5	W 60 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Toledo at Western Michigan	-13.5	48.5	L 13 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/27	Toledo vs Akron	-21.5	50.5	W 45 - 3	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Toledo at Bowling Green	-10.5	45.5	L 23 - 28	O	N
Sat 10/18	Toledo vs Kent State	-25.5	48.5	W 45 - 10	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Toledo at Washington State	-1.5	44.5	L 7 - 28	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/5	Toledo vs Northern Illinois	-14.5	42.5	W 42 - 3	O	Y
Wed 11/12	Toledo at Miami (OH)	-6.5	44.5	W 24 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Toledo vs Ball State	-29.5	45.5	W 38 - 9	O	N
Sat 11/29	Toledo at Central Michigan	-11.5	46.5	W 21 - 3	U	Y
Tue 12/23	Toledo vs Louisville	+12.5	44.5	L 22 - 27	O	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WKU	#74 (.17)	43% (58)	29.5	45% (52)	2.97 (62)	123	42% (64)	252	4.21 (30)	#42 (.11)	37% (19)	22.8	39% (26)	36% (18)	2.72 (11)	55.6	1.4	1
TOL	#63 (.18)	44% (54)	30.8	43% (70)	2.91 (75)	165	44% (39)	225	3.86 (55)	#2 (-.07)	33% (4)	13.3	39% (28)	28% (1)	2.33 (2)	66.9	1.1	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WKU	#66 (.19)	42% (83)		38% (117)	2.78 (108)	110	45% (33)	265	3.83 (78)	#95 (.21)	45% (102)		48% (113)	40% (60)	3.66 (54)	41.3	1.7	1.5
TOL	#111 (.11)	41% (95)		38% (120)	2.66 (121)	111	44% (46)	227	3.55 (99)	#20 (.09)	40% (43)		42% (60)	38% (35)	3.87 (79)	46.7	1.3	1.3

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WKU Offense	13	29.5	24.5	43.2%	4.21	1.4	20	374	123	252	4.2	42%	57%	45%	42%	15%	.17
TOL Defense	13	13.3	7.7	33.2%	2.33	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	52%	45%	39%	28%	20%	-.07

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WKU Defense	13	22.8	28	37%	2.72	1	-	-	-	-	-	46%	52%	39%	36%	16%	.11
TOL Offense	13	30.8	45.8	43.6%	3.86	1.1	20	390	165	225	5	49%	49%	43%	44%	13%	.18

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Western Kentucky	13	27:10	20	45%	33%	5.6	55.6	1.4	1	4.9	1.2	2	28.2
Toledo	13	27:59	19.6	41%	19%	7.5	66.9	1.1	1.5	6.6	2.7	3	31.2

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WKU Offense	13	42% (125)	45% (52)	29.2	122.7	4.2	20 (78)	.09 (81)	2.97 (62)	81% (12)	9% (49)	0.92 (84)
TOL Defense	13	52% (99)	39% (28)	-	-	-	-	(16)	2.44 (9)	67% (39)	13% (7)	0.88 (26)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WKU Defense	13	46% (22)	39% (26)	-	-	-	-	.09 (61)	2.79 (52)	55% (3)	9% (94)	1.13 (130)
TOL Offense	13	49% (68)	43% (70)	33.2	164.7	5	21 (40)	.12 (65)	2.91 (75)	78% (28)	9% (54)	0.9 (92)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WKU Offense	13	57% (12)	42% (64)	23.3	35	251.6	7.2	10.8	21 (42)	11 (60)	.24 (72)	1.5 (89)	33% (100)	34% (24)	.36 (45)	6% (89)	1.9 (104)
TOL Defense	13	45% (30)	28% (1)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (55)	-.08 (1)	1.6 (108)	35% (22)	19% (1)	-.01 (1)	7% (17)	2.2 (123)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WKU Defense	13	52% (109)	36% (18)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (55)	.16 (33)	1.5 (62)	34% (32)	27% (31)	.23 (43)	7% (17)	2 (69)
TOL Offense	13	49% (68)	44% (39)	18.4	28.5	225.2	7.9	12.3	26 (22)	10 (60)	.28 (54)	1.6 (62)	32% (72)	29% (80)	.2 (109)	4% (10)	1.9 (113)

Western Kentucky's Power Ratings
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: 3.54 #57
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 7.30 #77
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 3.76 #39
2025 Talent Rating: 620.00 #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Western Kentucky's 2025 Expected Record: 8.7 - 4.3
Western Kentucky's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.4 #70
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.9 #60
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #80

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: 3.54 Toledo: 14.24

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: 0.4 Toledo: 8.4

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 14.24 #32
Toledo's Offense Rating: 10.35 #62
Toledo's Defense Rating: -4.73 #16
2025 Talent Rating: 718.00 #71
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #56
Toledo's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Toledo's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.4 #37
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.9 #73
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.9 #17

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Western Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.5
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 28

Western Kentucky's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Toledo 33
Western Kentucky 20

Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
Toledo 25
Western Kentucky 23

Total Points: 48

Based on Entire Season
Toledo 32
Western Kentucky 19

Total Points: 51

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 45.8
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 7.7

Toledo's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/06	Toledo	45	Western Kentucky	21	Toledo -8.5	Toledo	57.5	Over
2024	09/21	Western Kentucky	26	Toledo	21	Toledo -2	Western Kentucky	60.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Toledo	1	1	1 Overs
Western Kentucky	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	2 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 1

(#57) WKU at (#32) TOL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	WKU	TOL
Power RatePwr	#57	#32
SP+SP+	#70	#37
Perf GradeGrade	#55	#11
OffenseOff	#64	#34
DefenseDef	#54	#5
Spec TeamsST	#28	#23
TalentTal	#89	#71
Blue ChipsBC%	#88	#56

Western Kentucky Notes(10/22) Escaped LT in OT, QB Tisdale OK but is mobile
(10/21) QB1 McIvor shoulder inj, R. Tisdale (Fr) vs La Tech
(10/15) FIU performance off a bye? Completely unprepared
(10/15) McIover last 4 games, 2 TD, 4 INT, 231 YPG.
(10/14) Shameful performance vs FIU, OG'd by 200+, Off awful
(10/4) Lucky W @ Del, OG'd by 100 yds, 2 TOs for TDs.
(10/4) QB McIvor is fun in an extremely pass heavy Off
(8/23) Likely 7-8 portal starters on both Off & Def
(8/2) Over Bet Watch, McIvor off great, Def rough
(7/25) Def portal adds include 11 DL, 3 LB, 8 DBs.
(7/25) WR complete rebuild. Took 7 portals + 2 TEs
(7/25) OL rebuild. 10 portal adds. Will take some time
Western Kentucky Injury Report

Toledo Notes(12/11) HC Candle left for UConn? Very odd move
(12/11) Hired HC Mike Jacobs (Mercer). Pot. big upgrade
(11/13) Beat M-OH w/ QB2, not impressive. 3 TOs, 313 yds
(10/31) Killed by Wazzu in bad spot, Run Off awful 61 yds
(10/31) 8-4 best possible finish & must win @ Mia OH
(10/12) Blew another vs BG, OG'd BG by 200 yds & still lost
(10/12) Penalties, turnovers & awful coaching killing Toledo
(9/24) Gleason/Off disappointing. Penalty issues hurting
(9/20) Yearly awful L vs 0-3 WMU, Gleason 89 yds, 2 INT
(8/30) Run Off terrible, Run Def bad in L to UK
(8/20) CB A. Smith a true shutdown & NFL prospect
(7/28) OL 5/5 back. Best in MAC, top 3 in the G5
Toledo Injury Report

Western Kentucky on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	TOL Def
Perf GradePerf	#64	#5
SuccessSuc	#58	#4
ExplosiveExp	#70	#21
PPAPPA	#74	#2
PowerPwr	#77	#16
SP+SP+	#60	#17
Pts POPPO	#30	#2
HavocHav	#61	#6

Western Kentucky Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	TOL Def
Run GameRun	#74	#16
Run SuccessRSuc	#52	#28
Run ExplRExp	#84	#26
PPAExp	#81	#16
Run BlockR Blk	#91	-
OL YdsOLY	#62	#9
Stuff RateStuff	#99	#28
TackleTak	-	#36

Western Kentucky Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	TOL Def
Pass GamePass	#47	#4
Pass SuccessPSuc	#64	#1
Pass ExplPExl	#89	#108
PPAExp	#72	#1
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#34	#6
F7 HavocF7	#49	#7
DB HavocDB	#89	#17

Toledo on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	WKU Def
Perf GradePerf	#34	#54
SuccessSuc	#54	#19
ExplosiveExp	#77	#116
PPAPPA	#63	#42
PowerPwr	#62	#39
SP+SP+	#73	#80
Pts POPPO	#55	#11
HavocHav	#23	#58

Toledo Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	WKU Def
Run GameRun	#54	#72
Run SuccessRSuc	#70	#26
Run ExplRExp	#92	#130
PPAExp	#65	#61
Run BlockR Blk	#59	-
OL YdsOLY	#75	#52
Stuff RateStuff	#85	#31
TackleTak	-	#118

Toledo Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	WKU Def
Pass GamePass	#7	#34
Pass SuccessPSuc	#39	#18
Pass ExplPExl	#62	#62
PPAExp	#54	#33
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#100	#70
F7 HavocF7	#54	#94
DB HavocDB	#10	#17

Program Comparison
TOL 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

WKU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Glass Bowl
Conditions:
Temp: 64° - Wind: 10 mph

Rematch from Week 2
Toledo -8.5 (57.5)
Toledo won vs Western Kentucky this year (45-21)

Previous Matchups
Western Kentucky beat Toledo last year (26-21)

WKU's OC Rick Bowie (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Maverick McIvor (Tr)	183	273	67%	2062	12	6	7.6
Rodney Tisdale Jr.	139	212	66%	1432	9	7	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Marvis Parrish	106	576	1	5.4	66
La'Vell Wright (Tr)	85	471	10	5.5	39
George Hart III	70	300	5	4.3	36
Rodney Tisdale Jr.	52	108	2	2.1	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Matthew Henry (Tr)	55	888	6	16.1	55
K.D. Hutchinson	66	618	3	9.4	78
Moussa Barry	34	488	1	14.4	48
Noah Meyers	32	357	3	11.2	62

View Western Kentucky's Full Roster

WKU's DC DaVon Brown (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Wester (Tr)	106	7	2	3	2
Jaylen Lewis (Tr)	74	4	0	0	5
Anthony Brackenridge	74	5	1	2	3
Dave Herard	58	3	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dominic Oliver (Tr)	20	4	3	0	0
Koron Hayward	19	4	3	2	1
Jalen Emery (Tr)	18	3	2	1	3
Harper Holloman	39	6	2	6	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Nazir Ward	35	3	1	6
Jai Eugene Jr.	21	2	1	5
Jaylen Lewis (Tr)	74	4	0	5

TOL's OC Mike Hallett (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tucker Gleason	207	320	65%	2515	21	9	7.9
Kalieb Osborne	32	52	62%	427	3	0	8.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
DeaMonte Trayanum	182	1015	12	5.6	75
Kenji Christian (Tr)	105	528	4	5.0	37
Kalieb Osborne	51	282	2	5.5	33
Tucker Gleason	46	144	4	3.1	35

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Junior Vandeross	82	1008	11	12.3	71
Trayvon Rudolph (Tr)	39	435	2	11.2	58
Jacob Petersen (Tr)	25	335	3	13.4	28
DeaMonte Trayanum	21	212	2	10.1	57

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
K'Von Sherman	93	15	5	6	1
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren	77	6	1	3	6
Chris D'Appolonia	59	4	1	2	4
Andre Fuller	49	3	0	0	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Martez Poynter	43	10	7	9	0
Malachi Davis	35	10	6	8	1
K'Von Sherman	93	15	5	6	1
Jeremiah Peters	24	6	4	3	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Avery Smith	42	5	0	0	10
Andre Fuller	49	3	0	0	10
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren	77	6	1	3	6