Northern Illinois at Toledo - 2025 Matchup Preview
Northern Illinois logo Northern Illinois Huskies at Toledo RocketsToledo logo
Wednesday, November 5th 2025 (7:00 PM EST)
Toledo -14.5 (42.5) (-650)  Open: -14.5
Toledo 42 - Northern Illinois: 3  (Mid-American)

 
Huskies (3 - 9) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Thomas Hammock (31 - 38)
Avg Score : 17 - 24 (16 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
NIU coming off BYE
TOL coming off BYE
Our Line: Toledo -28  (SP+ TOL -23)

Projected Score: NIU: 8 - TOL: 36 (44)
TOL Win prob: 85% | Cover: 47%
NIU Travel: 267 miles, 1 hrs behind
Rockets (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (72 - 40)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (46 - 8 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
 
Northern Illinois's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Northern Illinois vs Holy Cross-13.548.5W 19 - 17UN
Fri 9/5 Northern Illinois at Maryland+17.044.5L 9 - 20UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Northern Illinois at Mississippi State+23.548.5L 10 - 38UN
Sat 9/27 Northern Illinois vs San Diego State+1.541.5L 3 - 6UN
Sat 10/4 Northern Illinois vs Miami (OH)+4.538.5L 14 - 25ON
Sat 10/11 Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan-1.548.5L 10 - 16UN
Sat 10/18 Northern Illinois at Ohio+10.541.5L 21 - 48ON
Sat 10/25 Northern Illinois vs Ball State-6.541.5W 21 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/5 Northern Illinois at Toledo+14.542.5L 3 - 42ON
Wed 11/12 Northern Illinois at Massachusetts-8.543.5W 45 - 3OY
Tue 11/18 Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan+7.039.5L 19 - 35ON
Fri 11/28 Northern Illinois vs Kent State-5.045.0L 31 - 35ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 2, Poor: 1

Predictions for Northern Illinois's Schedule
Toledo's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Toledo at Kentucky+10.048.5L 16 - 24UY
Sat 9/6 Toledo vs Western Kentucky-8.557.5W 45 - 21OY
Sat 9/13 Toledo vs Morgan State-33.554.5W 60 - 0OY
Sat 9/20 Toledo at Western Michigan-13.548.5L 13 - 14UN
Sat 9/27 Toledo vs Akron-21.550.5W 45 - 3UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Toledo at Bowling Green-10.545.5L 23 - 28ON
Sat 10/18 Toledo vs Kent State-25.548.5W 45 - 10OY
Sat 10/25 Toledo at Washington State-1.544.5L 7 - 28UN
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/5 Toledo vs Northern Illinois-14.542.5W 42 - 3OY
Wed 11/12 Toledo at Miami (OH)-6.544.5W 24 - 3UY
Sat 11/22 Toledo vs Ball State-29.545.5W 38 - 9ON
Sat 11/29 Toledo at Central Michigan-11.546.5W 21 - 3UY
Tue 12/23 Toledo vs Louisville+12.544.5L 22 - 27OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 2

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NIU#86 (.16)42% (79)17.144% (72)3.25 (33)20440% (86)1793.39 (113)#11 (.06)38% (19)24.341% (52)35% (9)3.08 (12)42.81.21.1
TOL#111 (.11)41% (95)30.838% (120)2.66 (121)11144% (46)2273.55 (99)#20 (.09)40% (43)13.342% (60)38% (35)3.87 (79)46.71.31.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NIU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TOL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NIU Offense1317.116.342.1%3.391.2213832041794.859%41%44%40%15%.16
TOL Defense1313.37.739.8%3.871.3 - - - - - 52%48%42%38%19%.09
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NIU Defense1324.327.837.7%3.081.1 - - - - - 49%51%41%35%17%.06
TOL Offense1330.845.840.8%3.551.3183391112273.546%53%38%44%16%.11

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Northern Illinois1333:2021.542%45%4.242.81.21.15.42.5130.4
Toledo1325:0618.436%50%5.446.71.31.36.22.1231.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NIU Offense1359% (11)44% (72)42.8204.24.822 (55).14 (66)3.25 (33)72% (83)9% (60)1 (54)
TOL Defense1352% (83)42% (60) - - - - .11 (66)3.01 (69)77% (89)12% (31)0.95 (48)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NIU Defense1349% (44)41% (52) - - - - .08 (45)3.06 (79)74% (73)11% (53)0.9 (33)
TOL Offense1346% (96)38% (120)31.5111.33.512 (114)-.04 (127)2.66 (121)57% (130)10% (74)0.83 (125)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NIU Offense1341% (124)40% (86)16.528.5179.16.310.816 (87)8 (40).23 (84)1.6 (58)31% (68)30% (89).17 (117)5% (39)1.9 (116)
TOL Defense1348% (51)38% (35) - - - - - - 10 (66).08 (11)1.5 (29)34% (38)29% (39).22 (34)7% (35)2 (43)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NIU Defense1351% (93)35% (9) - - - - - - 9 (76).04 (4)1.5 (55)36% (15)25% (10).18 (16)7% (37)2 (67)
TOL Offense1353% (41)44% (46)19.231227.27.311.826 (26)7 (26).26 (67)1.6 (61)31% (65)27% (108).18 (115)6% (76)2 (68)

Northern Illinois's Power Ratings
Northern Illinois's Power Rating: -20.21  #130
Northern Illinois's Offense Rating: 1.81  #130
Northern Illinois's Defense Rating: 22.02  #121
2025 Talent Rating: 526.00  #113
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Northern Illinois's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Northern Illinois's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.7  #128
Northern Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 12.0  #135
Northern Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.1  #74

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 500.89
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Northern Illinois: -20.21   Toledo: 9.5

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Northern Illinois: -16.7   Toledo: 6.0




Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 9.5  #46
Toledo's Offense Rating: 15.43  #55
Toledo's Defense Rating: 7.43  #32
2025 Talent Rating: 718.00  #71
Blue Chip Ratio: 4  #56
Toledo's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Toledo's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.0  #48
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.8  #75
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.5  #21

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 571
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Northern Illinois Scoring
Offense: 17.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.3
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.8

Northern Illinois's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Toledo 36
Northern Illinois 8


Projected Total Points: 44
Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 45.8
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 7.7

Toledo's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/05Toledo42Northern Illinois3Toledo -14.5Toledo42.5Over
202410/19Northern Illinois6Toledo13Northern Illinois -3Toledo42.5Under
202309/30Toledo35Northern Illinois33Toledo -13Northern Illinois48.0Over
202210/08Northern Illinois32Toledo52Toledo -6.5Toledo59.0Over
202110/09Toledo20Northern Illinois22Toledo -13Northern Illinois51.5Under
202012/05Northern Illinois24Toledo41Toledo -9Toledo53.5Over
201911/13Toledo28Northern Illinois31Toledo -2.5Northern Illinois54.5Over
201811/07Northern Illinois38Toledo15Northern Illinois -3.5Northern Illinois54.0Under
201711/02Toledo27Northern Illinois17Toledo -7.5Toledo56.5Under
201611/09Northern Illinois24Toledo31Toledo -7.5Northern Illinois69.5Under
201511/03Toledo27Northern Illinois32Toledo -7Northern Illinois62.0Under
201411/11Northern Illinois27Toledo24Northern Illinois -3.5Toledo0
201311/20Toledo17Northern Illinois35Northern Illinois -3Northern Illinois0
201211/14Northern Illinois31Toledo24
201111/01Toledo60Northern Illinois63
201011/09Northern Illinois65Toledo30
200910/17Toledo20Northern Illinois19
200810/18Northern Illinois38Toledo7
200710/27Toledo70Northern Illinois21
200611/07Northern Illinois13Toledo17
200511/16Toledo17Northern Illinois35
200411/09Northern Illinois17Toledo31
200311/15Toledo49Northern Illinois30
200109/29Toledo41Northern Illinois20
200011/03Northern Illinois24Toledo38
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Toledo1465 Overs
Northern Illinois1176 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 134 - 93 - 61 - 3
Road Teams13 - 129 - 43 - 16 - 3

(#130) NIU at (#46) TOL
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNIUTOL
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #130 #46
SP+SP+ #128 #48
Perf GradeGrade #116 #11
OffenseOff #117 #41
DefenseDef #105 #6
Spec TeamsST #88 #14
TalentTal #113 #71
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #56
Northern Illinois Notes
(11/20) QB play abysmal, Rush Def mauled vs WMU
(11/5) Last MAC year, no bowl. No Offense. Grim outlook
(10/31) Off is worst in CFB, QBs awful, RB Johnson OK
(10/31) DL good, Def good but Off #'s are just ass
(10/19) Lost 6 straight, worst Off Success #'s in all CFB
(10/19) Program is regressing fast. OC Beschorner must go
(9/29) QB Holst benched, QB2 Davidson immediately picked
(9/25) Off poss worst in CFB, have no QB, rush Off worse
(8/30) Slog W over Holy Cross. 3.7 ypc, 4.5 ypp. Woof
(5/5) Portal QB Proctor (Dart) exciting, joins in summer
(5/5) QB1 Holst won spring, started 3 games LY
(5/5) WR Bryant, Pardridge and Givens top 3 spring
Northern Illinois Injury Report
Toledo Notes
(12/11) HC Candle left for UConn? Very odd move
(12/11) Hired HC Mike Jacobs (Mercer). Pot. big upgrade
(11/13) Beat M-OH w/ QB2, not impressive. 3 TOs, 313 yds
(10/31) Killed by Wazzu in bad spot, Run Off awful 61 yds
(10/31) 8-4 best possible finish & must win @ Mia OH
(10/12) Blew another vs BG, OG'd BG by 200 yds & still lost
(10/12) Penalties, turnovers & awful coaching killing Toledo
(9/24) Gleason/Off disappointing. Penalty issues hurting
(9/20) Yearly awful L vs 0-3 WMU, Gleason 89 yds, 2 INT
(8/30) Run Off terrible, Run Def bad in L to UK
(8/20) CB A. Smith a true shutdown & NFL prospect
(7/28) OL 5/5 back. Best in MAC, top 3 in the G5
Toledo Injury Report
Northern Illinois on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 65%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCat
NIU OffTOL Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #117 #6
SuccessSuc #79 #43
ExplosiveExp #96 #33
PPAPPA #86 #20
PowerPwr #130 #32
SP+SP+ #135 #21
Pts POPPO #113 #79
HavocHav #44 #28
Northern Illinois Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 65%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCat
NIU OffTOL Def
Run GameRun #64 #16
Run SuccessRSuc #72 #60
Run ExplRExp #54 #48
PPAExp #66 #66
Run BlockR Blk #79 -
OL YdsOLY #33 #69
Stuff RateStuff #14 #81
TackleTak -  #41
Northern Illinois Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 65%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCat
NIU OffTOL Def
Pass GamePass #136 #13
Pass SuccessPSuc #86 #35
Pass ExplPExl #58 #29
PPAExp #84 #11
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #114 #4
F7 HavocF7 #60 #31
DB HavocDB #39 #35
Toledo on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatTOL OffNIU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #41 #105
SuccessSuc #95 #19
ExplosiveExp #83 #37
PPAPPA #111 #11
PowerPwr #55 #121
SP+SP+ #75 #74
Pts POPPO #99 #12
HavocHav #72 #48
Toledo Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
TOL OffNIU Def
Run GameRun #62 #108
Run SuccessRSuc #120 #52
Run ExplRExp #125 #33
PPAExp #127 #45
Run BlockR Blk #52 -
OL YdsOLY #121 #79
Stuff RateStuff #120 #104
TackleTak -  #9
Toledo Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatTOL OffNIU Def
Pass GamePass #6 #94
Pass SuccessPSuc #46 #9
Pass ExplPExl #61 #55
PPAExp #67 #4
Pass Block/RushP Blk #97 #100
F7 HavocF7 #74 #53
DB HavocDB #76 #37
Program Comparison
TOL 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

NIU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Glass Bowl
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 50° - Wind: 8 mph
Rematch from Week 11
Toledo -14.5 (42.5)
Toledo won vs Northern Illinois this year (42-3)

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Northern Illinois last year (42-3)
Toledo beat Northern Illinois in 2024 (13-6)
Toledo beat Northern Illinois in 2023 (35-33)

  
NIU's OC Wesley Beschorner (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Josh Holst7813060%689435.3
Brady Davidson408746%384334.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Chavon Wright19687554.545
Telly Johnson Jr.12469045.680
Jalen Macon4521654.836
Lazaro Rogers3318915.776
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
DeAree Rogers46506311.050
Gary Givens III12145112.131
Rickey Taylor Jr.9134114.941
Telly Johnson Jr.169706.117

View Northern Illinois's Full Roster

NIU's DC Nick Benedetto (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Quinton Urwiler1278221
Filip Maciorowski766302
Jasper Beeler741102
Jacob Finley571007
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Filip Maciorowski766302
Jay'Shon Thomas193250
Roy Williams3332110
Quinton Urwiler1278221
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jacob Finley571007
Donte Harrison302005
Dev'ion Reynolds130003

TOL's OC Mike Hallett (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tucker Gleason20732065%25152197.9
Kalieb Osborne325262%427308.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
DeaMonte Trayanum1821015125.675
Kenji Christian (Tr)10552845.037
Kalieb Osborne5128225.533
Tucker Gleason4614443.135
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Junior Vandeross8210081112.371
Trayvon Rudolph (Tr)39435211.258
Jacob Petersen (Tr)25335313.428
DeaMonte Trayanum21212210.157

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
K'Von Sherman9315561
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren776136
Chris D'Appolonia594124
Andre Fuller4930010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Martez Poynter4310790
Malachi Davis3510681
K'Von Sherman9315561
Jeremiah Peters246432
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Avery Smith4250010
Andre Fuller4930010
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren776136