Northern Illinois at Toledo - 2025 Matchup Preview

Northern Illinois Huskies at Toledo Rockets

Wednesday, November 5th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Glass Bowl - Toledo, OH (Mid-American)

Huskies (1 - 5) (1 - 5 - 0)
Coach Thomas Hammock (31 - 38)
Avg Score : 11 - 20 (10 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.7 - 7.3 (#102)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)

NIU coming off BYE
TOL coming off BYE
Our Line: Toledo -21.5 (SP+ TOL -19)
Projected Score: NIU: 11 - TOL: 32 (43)
TOL Win prob: 95% | Cover: 49%
NIU Travel: 267 miles, 1 hrs behind

Rockets (3 - 3) (4 - 2 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (72 - 40)
Avg Score : 34 - 15 (50 - 8 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.8 - 3.2 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)

Matchup
Schedules
NIU Players
TOL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Northern Illinois's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Northern Illinois vs Holy Cross	-13.5	48.5	W 19 - 17	U	N
Fri 9/5	Northern Illinois at Maryland	+17.0	44.5	L 9 - 20	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	Northern Illinois at Mississippi State	+23.5	48.5	L 10 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/27	Northern Illinois vs San Diego State	+1.5	41.5	L 3 - 6	U	N
Sat 10/4	Northern Illinois vs Miami (OH)	+4.5	38.5	L 14 - 25	O	N
Sat 10/11	Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan	-1.5	48.5	L 10 - 16	U	N
Sat 10/18	Northern Illinois at Ohio	+10.5	41.5
Sat 10/25	Northern Illinois vs Ball State	-15
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/5	Northern Illinois at Toledo	+21.5
Wed 11/12	Northern Illinois at Massachusetts	-15.5
Tue 11/18	Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan	+1
Fri 11/28	Northern Illinois vs Kent State	-14

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2

Predictions for Northern Illinois's Schedule

Toledo's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Toledo at Kentucky	+10.0	48.5	L 16 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Toledo vs Western Kentucky	-8.5	57.5	W 45 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Toledo vs Morgan State	-33.5	54.5	W 60 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Toledo at Western Michigan	-13.5	48.5	L 13 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/27	Toledo vs Akron	-21.5	50.5	W 45 - 3	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Toledo at Bowling Green	-10.5	45.5	L 23 - 28	O	N
Sat 10/18	Toledo vs Kent State	-26.5	51.5
Sat 10/25	Toledo at Washington State	-13.5
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/5	Toledo vs Northern Illinois	-21.5
Wed 11/12	Toledo at Miami (OH)	-15
Sat 11/22	Toledo vs Ball State	-34
Sat 11/29	Toledo at Central Michigan	-23

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NIU	#133 (.02)	30% (136)	10.8	31% (135)	2.65 (109)	155	27% (136)	100	3.12 (124)	#37 (.09)	40% (46)	20.3	42% (74)	37% (29)	3.31 (35)	42.5	1	0.8
TOL	#66 (.2)	44% (61)	33.7	43% (78)	2.85 (82)	206	45% (49)	236	4.33 (48)	#2 (-.08)	35% (13)	15	40% (47)	29% (4)	3.29 (32)	79.2	1.2	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NIU	#86 (.16)	42% (79)		44% (72)	3.25 (33)	204	40% (86)	179	3.39 (113)	#11 (.06)	38% (19)		41% (52)	35% (9)	3.08 (12)	42.8	1.2	1.1
TOL	#111 (.11)	41% (95)		38% (120)	2.66 (121)	111	44% (46)	227	3.55 (99)	#20 (.09)	40% (43)		42% (60)	38% (35)	3.87 (79)	46.7	1.3	1.3

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NIU Offense	6	10.8	9.7	29.6%	3.12	1	13	255	155	100	4.2	60%	40%	31%	27%	14%	.02
TOL Defense	6	15	8	34.6%	3.29	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	40%	29%	20%	-.08

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NIU Defense	6	20.3	24.7	39.6%	3.31	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	42%	37%	12%	.09
TOL Offense	6	33.7	50	43.8%	4.33	1.2	23	441	206	236	5.2	52%	47%	43%	45%	13%	.2

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Northern Illinois	6	29:06	13.2	27%	60%	5.2	42.5	1	0.8	4.3	1.2	1	25.9
Toledo	6	31:46	22.7	37%	20%	8.7	79.2	1.2	1.7	6.8	1.8	1	30.3

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NIU Offense	6	60% (12)	31% (135)	37	154.8	4.2	4 (125)	.07 (99)	2.65 (109)	71% (83)	11% (102)	1.22 (5)
TOL Defense	6	55% (114)	40% (47)	-	-	-	-	-.06 (11)	2.23 (7)	67% (43)	14% (12)	0.75 (6)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NIU Defense	6	56% (119)	42% (74)	-	-	-	-	.05 (41)	2.94 (86)	62% (26)	8% (121)	0.87 (34)
TOL Offense	6	52% (59)	43% (78)	39.8	205.7	5.2	14 (28)	.12 (78)	2.85 (82)	76% (47)	9% (65)	0.88 (106)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NIU Offense	6	40% (126)	27% (136)	12.3	23.5	99.8	4.3	8.1	2 (134)	5 (77)	-.02 (134)	1.6 (48)	37% (131)	19% (135)	.12 (121)	3% (6)	2.2 (32)
TOL Defense	6	44% (22)	29% (4)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (62)	-.06 (4)	1.7 (122)	36% (19)	17% (1)	-.06 (1)	6% (75)	2.5 (134)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NIU Defense	6	43% (19)	37% (29)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (62)	.15 (39)	1.6 (99)	29% (111)	34% (111)	.5 (129)	5% (106)	2.1 (101)
TOL Offense	6	47% (84)	45% (49)	19.3	30.3	235.7	7.8	12.2	11 (49)	5 (77)	.3 (63)	1.6 (61)	33% (100)	26% (103)	.05 (132)	4% (28)	1.6 (133)

Northern Illinois's Power Ratings
Northern Illinois's Power Rating: -3.35 #86
Northern Illinois's Offense Rating: 1.81 #119
Northern Illinois's Defense Rating: 5.16 #52
2025 Talent Rating: 526.00 #113
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Northern Illinois's 2025 Expected Record: 4.7 - 7.3
Northern Illinois's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.1 #118
Northern Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 9.4 #136
Northern Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.1 #47

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Northern Illinois: -3.35 Toledo: 13.005

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Northern Illinois: -14.1 Toledo: 5.1

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 13.005 #40
Toledo's Offense Rating: 12.00 #63
Toledo's Defense Rating: -3.91 #19
2025 Talent Rating: 718.00 #71
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #56
Toledo's 2025 Expected Record: 8.8 - 3.2
Toledo's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.1 #55
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #72
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #36

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Northern Illinois Scoring
Offense: 10.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 9.7
Defense: 20.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.7

Northern Illinois's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Toledo 32
Northern Illinois 11

Total Points: 43

Based on Last 4 Games
Toledo 34
Northern Illinois 8

Total Points: 42

Based on Entire Season
Toledo 32
Northern Illinois 11

Total Points: 43

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 33.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 50
Defense: 15 PPG
Defense at Home: 8

Toledo's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/19	Northern Illinois	6	Toledo	13	Northern Illinois -3	Toledo	42.5	Under
2023	09/30	Toledo	35	Northern Illinois	33	Toledo -13	Northern Illinois	48.0	Over
2022	10/08	Northern Illinois	32	Toledo	52	Toledo -6.5	Toledo	59.0	Over
2021	10/09	Toledo	20	Northern Illinois	22	Toledo -13	Northern Illinois	51.5	Under
2020	12/05	Northern Illinois	24	Toledo	41	Toledo -9	Toledo	53.5	Over
2019	11/13	Toledo	28	Northern Illinois	31	Toledo -2.5	Northern Illinois	54.5	Over
2018	11/07	Northern Illinois	38	Toledo	15	Northern Illinois -3.5	Northern Illinois	54.0	Under
2017	11/02	Toledo	27	Northern Illinois	17	Toledo -7.5	Toledo	56.5	Under
2016	11/09	Northern Illinois	24	Toledo	31	Toledo -7.5	Northern Illinois	69.5	Under
2015	11/03	Toledo	27	Northern Illinois	32	Toledo -7	Northern Illinois	62.0	Under
2014	11/11	Northern Illinois	27	Toledo	24	Northern Illinois -3.5	Toledo	0
2013	11/20	Toledo	17	Northern Illinois	35	Northern Illinois -3	Northern Illinois	0
2012	11/14	Northern Illinois	31	Toledo	24
2011	11/01	Toledo	60	Northern Illinois	63
2010	11/09	Northern Illinois	65	Toledo	30
2009	10/17	Toledo	20	Northern Illinois	19
2008	10/18	Northern Illinois	38	Toledo	7
2007	10/27	Toledo	70	Northern Illinois	21
2006	11/07	Northern Illinois	13	Toledo	17
2005	11/16	Toledo	17	Northern Illinois	35
2004	11/09	Northern Illinois	17	Toledo	31
2003	11/15	Toledo	49	Northern Illinois	30
2001	09/29	Toledo	41	Northern Illinois	20
2000	11/03	Northern Illinois	24	Toledo	38

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Toledo	13	5	4 Overs
Northern Illinois	11	7	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	11 - 13	3 - 9	2 - 6	1 - 3
Road Teams	13 - 11	9 - 3	3 - 1	6 - 2

(#86) NIU at (#40) TOL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NIU	TOL
Power RatePwr	#86	#40
SP+SP+	#118	#55
Perf GradeGrade	#123	#15
OffenseOff	#135	#42
DefenseDef	#75	#11
Spec TeamsST	#104	#68
TalentTal	#113	#71
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#56

Northern Illinois Notes
(9/29) QB Holst benched, QB2 Davidson immediately picked
(9/25) Off poss worst in CFB, have no QB, rush Off worse
(8/30) Slog W over Holy Cross. 3.7 ypc, 4.5 ypp. Woof
(5/5) Portal QB Proctor (Dart) exciting, joins in summer
(5/5) QB1 Holst won spring, started 3 games LY
(5/5) WR Bryant, Pardridge and Givens top 3 spring
(5/5) OL rebuild, 1/5 back. 2 more w/ exp. Lost 5 Srs
(4/27) Staff high on Fr QB Brady Davidson, best croot
(3/26) RB rebuild, Johnson/Poe have exp, some depth
(3/26) Def good LY, replacing all. Only 2 portals, CBs
(3/26) Hammock good, but lost most exp in CFB

Toledo Notes
(10/12) Blew another vs BG, OG'd BG by 200 yds & still lost
(10/12) Penalties, turnovers & awful coaching killing Toledo
(9/24) Gleason/Off disappointing. Penalty issues hurting
(9/20) Yearly awful L vs 0-3 WMU, Gleason 89 yds, 2 INT
(8/30) Run Off terrible, Run Def bad in L to UK
(8/20) CB A. Smith a true shutdown & NFL prospect
(7/28) OL 5/5 back. Best in MAC, top 3 in the G5
(7/28) Def added 9 portals, some key pieces at DE/LB
(7/28) Secondary should be really good, great CBs
(7/27) WR Vandeross a weapon, Rudolph (NIU) big add
(5/11) One of CFB's most exp'd OLs, 95% is returning

Northern Illinois on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	NIU Off	TOL Def
Perf GradePerf	#135	#11
SuccessSuc	#136	#13
ExplosiveExp	#20	#15
PPAPPA	#133	#2
PowerPwr	#119	#19
SP+SP+	#136	#36
Pts POPPO	#124	#32
HavocHav	#51	#19

Northern Illinois Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	NIU Off	TOL Def
Run GameRun	#98	#14
Run SuccessRSuc	#135	#47
Run ExplRExp	#5	#6
PPAExp	#99	#11
Run BlockR Blk	#113	-
OL YdsOLY	#109	#7
Stuff RateStuff	#106	#14
TackleTak	-	#26

Northern Illinois Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	NIU Off	TOL Def
Pass GamePass	#136	#16
Pass SuccessPSuc	#136	#4
Pass ExplPExl	#48	#122
PPAExp	#134	#4
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#100	#57
F7 HavocF7	#102	#12
DB HavocDB	#6	#75

Toledo on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	NIU Def
Perf GradePerf	#42	#75
SuccessSuc	#61	#46
ExplosiveExp	#80	#38
PPAPPA	#66	#37
PowerPwr	#63	#52
SP+SP+	#72	#47
Pts POPPO	#48	#35
HavocHav	#36	#123

Toledo Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	NIU Def
Run GameRun	#58	#65
Run SuccessRSuc	#78	#74
Run ExplRExp	#106	#34
PPAExp	#78	#41
Run BlockR Blk	#33	-
OL YdsOLY	#82	#86
Stuff RateStuff	#67	#90
TackleTak	-	#7

Toledo Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	NIU Def
Pass GamePass	#19	#80
Pass SuccessPSuc	#49	#29
Pass ExplPExl	#61	#99
PPAExp	#63	#39
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#119	#117
F7 HavocF7	#65	#121
DB HavocDB	#28	#106

Program Comparison
TOL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

NIU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Glass Bowl
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Northern Illinois last year (13-6)
Toledo beat Northern Illinois in 2023 (35-33)
Toledo beat Northern Illinois in 2022 (52-32)

NIU's OC Wesley Beschorner (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Josh Holst	46	77	60%	376	1	2	4.9
Brady Davidson	26	58	45%	215	1	3	3.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Telly Johnson Jr.	67	395	2	5.9	80
Chavon Wright	82	314	1	3.8	45
Lazaro Rogers	17	115	1	6.8	76
Josh Holst	33	57	0	1.7	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
DeAree Rogers	28	289	1	10.3	25
Gary Givens III	6	87	0	14.5	21
Telly Johnson Jr.	11	61	0	5.5	17
George Dimopoulos	7	47	0	6.7	19

View Northern Illinois's Full Roster

NIU's DC Nick Benedetto (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Quinton Urwiler	70	5	2	2	0
Filip Maciorowski	46	3	2	0	2
Jasper Beeler	40	1	1	0	1
Muhammed Jammeh	38	1	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Quinton Urwiler	70	5	2	2	0
Filip Maciorowski	46	3	2	0	2
Roy Williams	28	2	1	7	0
Dasean Dixon	15	3	1	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Donte Harrison	20	2	0	0	3
Alvin Gulley Jr.	9	1	1	1	2
Jake Gassaway	5	0	0	0	2

TOL's OC Mike Hallett (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tucker Gleason	93	148	63%	1189	8	4	8.0
John Alan Richter	17	25	68%	153	3	1	6.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
DeaMonte Trayanum	103	601	7	5.8	75
Kenji Christian (Tr)	46	233	2	5.1	33
Kalieb Osborne	11	91	2	8.3	21
Willie Shaw III	13	77	0	5.9	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Junior Vandeross	37	480	6	13.0	71
Trayvon Rudolph (Tr)	17	169	0	9.9	20
Jacob Petersen (Tr)	10	163	1	16.3	28
Eric Holley	11	140	1	12.7	26

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
K'Von Sherman	46	7	1	1	0
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren	32	3	1	0	1
Chris D'Appolonia	27	3	0	1	1
Andre Fuller	25	1	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Malachi Davis	19	6	3	2	0
Jeremiah Peters	13	3	2	1	1
Martez Poynter	18	3	2	2	0
Doran Ray	13	2	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Avery Smith	13	2	0	0	6
Andre Fuller	25	1	0	0	4
Jeremiah Peters	13	3	2	1	1