Middle Tennessee at Toledo - 2021 Matchup Preview

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Toledo Rockets

Friday, December 17th 2021 (12:00 PM EST)
Toledo -10 (50.0) (300) Open: -9.5 | 53.0
Middle Tennessee 31 - Toledo: 24 (Bahamas Bowl)

Blue Raiders (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Rick Stockstill (95 - 94)
Avg Score : 30 - 26 (24 - 32 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 12.4 MPH
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: -5.5 (SP+ TOL -11)
Projected Score: MTSU: 25 - TOL: 32 (57)
TOL Win prob: 77% | Cover: 50%
MTSU Travel: 918 miles, 1 hrs behind

Rockets (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (39 - 23)
Avg Score : 33 - 22 (35 - 23 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
MTSU Players
TOL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Middle Tennessee's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Middle Tennessee vs Monmouth	-8.5	58.5	W 50 - 15	O	Y
Sat 9/11	Middle Tennessee at Virginia Tech	+20.0	55.0	L 14 - 35	U	N
Sat 9/18	Middle Tennessee at UTSA	+11.5	60.0	L 13 - 27	U	N
Fri 9/24	Middle Tennessee at Charlotte	+2.5	55.5	L 39 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/2	Middle Tennessee vs Marshall	+11.0	66.0	W 34 - 28	U	Y
Sat 10/9	Middle Tennessee at Liberty	+20.0	59.0	L 13 - 41	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/22	Middle Tennessee at UConn	-14.0	54.0	W 44 - 13	O	Y
Sat 10/30	Middle Tennessee vs Southern Miss	-12.5	47.0	W 35 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/6	Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky	+17.5	66.5	L 21 - 48	O	N
Sat 11/13	Middle Tennessee vs Florida International	-10.5	54.0	W 50 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/20	Middle Tennessee vs Old Dominion	-3.0	48.5	L 17 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/27	Middle Tennessee at Florida Atlantic	+3.5	49.5	W 27 - 17	U	Y
Fri 12/17	Middle Tennessee vs Toledo	+10.0	50.0	W 31 - 24	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Middle Tennessee's Schedule

Toledo's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Toledo vs Norfolk State	-39.5	56.0	W 49 - 10	O	N
Sat 9/11	Toledo at Notre Dame	+16.5	55.0	L 29 - 32	O	Y
Sat 9/18	Toledo vs Colorado State	-14.5	59.0	L 6 - 22	U	N
Sat 9/25	Toledo at Ball State	-4.5	56.5	W 22 - 12	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Toledo at Massachusetts	-26.5	56.5	W 45 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/9	Toledo vs Northern Illinois	-13.0	51.5	L 20 - 22	U	N
Sat 10/16	Toledo at Central Michigan	-5.0	53.0	L 23 - 26	U	N
Sat 10/23	Toledo vs Western Michigan	+1.5	54.5	W 34 - 15	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/2	Toledo vs Eastern Michigan	-9.0	54.5	L 49 - 52	O	N
Wed 11/10	Toledo at Bowling Green	-10.5	50.0	W 49 - 17	O	Y
Tue 11/16	Toledo at Ohio	-7.5	57.5	W 35 - 23	O	Y
Sat 11/27	Toledo vs Akron	-28.5	57.5	W 49 - 14	O	Y
Fri 12/17	Toledo vs Middle Tennessee	-10.0	50.0	L 24 - 31	O	N

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MTSU	.14	38%	29.8	39%	3.03	124	38%	238	4.08	.16	42%	25.7	47%	39%	3.65	56.6	1.6	2.5
TOL	.29	40%	33.4	45%	3.5	196	36%	239	4.04	.09	36%	21.8	36%	37%	3.22	90.2	0.5	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MTSU	#107 (.13)	39% (105)		38% (114)	2.82 (104)	91	40% (83)	261	3 (128)	#129 (.32)	49% (130)		50% (124)	49% (127)	4.61 (126)	61.3	1.6	0.8
TOL	#111 (.11)	41% (95)		38% (120)	2.66 (121)	111	44% (46)	227	3.55 (99)	#20 (.09)	40% (43)		42% (60)	38% (35)	3.87 (79)	46.7	1.3	1.3

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MTSU Offense	13	29.8	24.4	38.3%	4.08	1.6	20	362	124	238	3.5	43%	56%	39%	38%	26%	.14
TOL Defense	13	21.8	22.5	36.2%	3.22	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	36%	37%	20%	.09

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MTSU Defense	13	25.7	31.9	42%	3.65	2.5	-	-	-	-	-	42%	56%	47%	39%	28%	.16
TOL Offense	13	33.4	34.5	40.2%	4.04	0.5	21	435	196	239	5.4	49%	51%	45%	36%	17%	.29

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Middle Tennessee	13	30:13	19.8	31%	48%	6.6	56.6	1.6	2.5	6.8	2.5	5	31.4
Toledo	13	28:20	20.8	35%	43%	10	90.2	0.5	1.5	6.8	2.9	5	29.4

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MTSU Offense	13	43%	39%	35.2	123.7	3.5	15	.07	3.03	60%	17%	1.07
TOL Defense	13	52%	36%	-	-	-	-	.07	3.07	63%	12%	1.07

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MTSU Defense	13	42%	47%	-	-	-	-	.13	3.42	74%	16%	0.97
TOL Offense	13	49%	45%	36.3	196.4	5.4	29	.35	3.5	77%	11%	1.33

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MTSU Offense	13	56%	38%	22.8	35.6	238.5	6.7	10.5	28	13	.23	1.6	33%	28%	.3	9%	2.2
TOL Defense	13	48%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.18	1.6	35%	27%	.24	8%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MTSU Defense	13	56%	39%	-	-	-	-	-	-	17	.27	1.6	34%	34%	.26	11%	1.9
TOL Offense	13	51%	36%	17.4	30	239.1	8	13.8	22	3	.24	1.8	36%	25%	.27	6%	2.3

Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: NR
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: NR
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #80
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Middle Tennessee's 2021 Expected Record: -
Middle Tennessee's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #90
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.0 #91
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #69

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: Toledo: 3.45

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -4.0 Toledo: 6.9

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 3.45 NR
Toledo's Offense Rating: NR
Toledo's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #86
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Toledo's 2021 Expected Record: -
Toledo's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.9 #56
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #65
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.7 #21

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.4
Defense: 25.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.9

Middle Tennessee's 2021 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0

Projected Score
Toledo 32
Middle Tennessee 25

Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
Toledo 31
Middle Tennessee 26

Total Points: 57

Based on Entire Season
Toledo 32
Middle Tennessee 25

Total Points: 57

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 33.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.5
Defense: 21.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.5

Toledo's 2021 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2021	12/17	Toledo	24	Middle Tennessee	31	Toledo -10	Middle Tennessee	50.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Toledo	0	0	1 Overs
Middle Tennessee	1	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

Middle Tennessee Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2021	Bahamas Bowl	Middle Tennessee vs Toledo	+10.0	50.0	W 31 - 24
2018	Orleans Bowl	Middle Tennessee vs App State	+6.5	48.0	L 13 - 45
2017	Camellia Bowl	Middle Tennessee vs Arkansas State	+3.5	61.0	W 35 - 30
2016	I Bowl	Middle Tennessee vs Hawai'i	-4.5	70.0	L 35 - 52
2015	Bahamas Bowl	Middle Tennessee vs Western Michigan	+3.0		L 31 - 45

Toledo Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2021	Bahamas Bowl	Toledo vs Middle Tennessee	-10.0	50.0	L 24 - 31
2018	Bahamas Bowl	Toledo vs Florida International	-7.0	57.5	L 32 - 35
2017	General Bowl	Toledo vs App State	-6.0	61.5	L 0 - 34
2016	Camellia Bowl	Toledo vs App State	-2.5	60.0	L 28 - 31
2015	Raton Bowl	Toledo vs Temple	+1.0		W 32 - 17

(#) MTSU at (#) TOL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MTSU	TOL
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#90	#56
Perf GradeGrade	#101	#45
OffenseOff	#116	#97
DefenseDef	#53	#9
Spec TeamsST	#124	#100
TalentTal	#80	#86
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Middle Tennessee Injury Report

Toledo Injury Report

Middle Tennessee on Offense


CategoryCat	MTSU Off	TOL Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#116	#9
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#91	#21
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Middle Tennessee Run Game


CategoryCat	MTSU Off	TOL Def
Run GameRun	#128	#5
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#122	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#4

Middle Tennessee Pass Game


CategoryCat	MTSU Off	TOL Def
Pass GamePass	#95	#12
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#81	#40
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Toledo on Offense


CategoryCat	TOL Off	MTSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#97	#53
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#65	#69
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Toledo Run Game


CategoryCat	TOL Off	MTSU Def
Run GameRun	#17	#41
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#60	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#42

Toledo Pass Game


CategoryCat	TOL Off	MTSU Def
Pass GamePass	#113	#24
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#118	#125
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
TOL 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'21 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

MTSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'21 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Thomas Robinson Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 81° - Wind: 12 mph

Rematch from Week 1
Toledo -10.0 (50.0)
Middle Tennessee won at Toledo this year (31-24)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

MTSU's OC Brent Dearmon (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster

MTSU's DC Scott Shafer (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

TOL's OC Mike Hallett (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD