Louisville at Washington - 2024 Matchup Preview

Louisville Cardinals vs Washington Huskies

Tuesday, December 31st 2024 (2:00 PM EST)
Washington -1 (50.5) (-118) Open: 0.0
Louisville 35 - Washington: 34 (Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl)

Cardinals (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (10 - 4)
Avg Score : 37 - 24 (31 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Louisville -11.5 (SP+ LOU -10.5)
Projected Score: LOU: 31 - WASH: 20 (51)
WASH Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
LOU Travel: 1940 miles, 3 hrs ahead

Huskies (6 - 7) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jedd Fisch (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 23 - 24 (29 - 12 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
LOU Players
WASH Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Louisville's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Louisville vs Austin Peay	-38.5	54.5	W 62 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Louisville vs Jacksonville State	-27.5	56.5	W 49 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Louisville vs Georgia Tech	-9.5	56.0	W 31 - 19	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Louisville at Notre Dame	+6.5	45.0	L 24 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/5	Louisville vs SMU	-6.5	55.0	L 27 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/12	Louisville at Virginia	-7.0	54.0	W 24 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/19	Louisville vs Miami	+4.5	61.5	L 45 - 52	O	N
Fri 10/25	Louisville at Boston College	-7.0	54.0	W 31 - 27	O	N
Sat 11/2	Louisville at Clemson	+11.0	62.5	W 33 - 21	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Louisville at Stanford	-21.0	57.5	L 35 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/23	Louisville vs Pittsburgh	-7.0	57.0	W 37 - 9	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Louisville at Kentucky	-3.5	48.5	W 41 - 14	O	Y
Tue 12/31	Louisville vs Washington	+1.0	50.5	W 35 - 34	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Louisville's Schedule

Washington's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Washington vs Weber State	-29.0	51.5	W 35 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Washington vs Eastern Michigan	-25.0	48.5	W 30 - 9	U	N
Sat 9/14	Washington vs Washington State	-4.0	56.0	L 19 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/21	Washington vs Northwestern	-11.5	42.5	W 24 - 5	U	Y
Fri 9/27	Washington at Rutgers	+1.5	44.5	L 18 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/5	Washington vs Michigan	-1.5	39.5	W 27 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Washington at Iowa	+2.5	41.5	L 16 - 40	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	Washington at Indiana	+5.5	54.0	L 17 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/2	Washington vs USC	+2.0	55.0	W 26 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Washington at Penn State	+13.5	48.0	L 6 - 35	U	N
Fri 11/15	Washington vs UCLA	-4.5	47.0	W 31 - 19	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/30	Washington at Oregon	+17.5	50.5	L 21 - 49	O	N
Tue 12/31	Washington vs Louisville	-1.0	50.5	L 34 - 35	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LOU	#15 (.31)	46% (26)	36.5	48% (20)	3.09 (56)	173	45% (30)	251	4.27 (31)	#73 (.18)	40% (49)	24.1	40% (44)	40% (65)	3.98 (87)	46.1	0.8	1.2
WASH	#32 (.25)	47% (21)	23.4	46% (36)	3.29 (28)	122	48% (13)	233	3.52 (102)	#54 (.14)	43% (83)	23.8	48% (116)	38% (31)	4.04 (95)	48.7	0.8	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LOU	#15 (.31)	46% (26)		48% (20)	3.09 (56)	173	45% (30)	251	4.27 (31)	#73 (.18)	40% (49)		40% (44)	40% (65)	3.98 (87)	46.1	0.8	1.2
WASH	#32 (.25)	47% (21)		46% (36)	3.29 (28)	122	48% (13)	233	3.52 (102)	#54 (.14)	43% (83)		48% (116)	38% (31)	4.04 (95)	48.7	0.8	1.2

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LOU Offense	13	36.5	31.3	46.4%	4.27	0.8	20	424	173	251	5.8	45%	54%	48%	45%	13%	.31
WASH Defense	13	23.8	12.3	43.1%	4.04	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	48%	38%	14%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LOU Defense	13	24.1	25.2	40.2%	3.98	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	40%	40%	16%	.18
WASH Offense	13	23.4	28.8	47%	3.52	0.8	19	355	122	233	4.1	46%	54%	46%	48%	16%	.25

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Louisville	13	27:39	20.1	40%	40%	5.9	46.1	0.8	1.2	5.8	2.2	1	30.3
Washington	13	27:50	19.1	36%	46%	5.5	48.7	0.8	1.2	3.3	1.5	0	27.9

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LOU Offense	13	45% (103)	48% (20)	29.9	172.7	5.8	27 (30)	.2 (35)	3.09 (56)	65% (116)	8% (27)	1.04 (43)
WASH Defense	13	52% (79)	48% (116)	-	-	-	-	.19 (106)	3.3 (114)	68% (36)	7% (131)	0.89 (31)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LOU Defense	13	49% (50)	40% (44)	-	-	-	-	.08 (43)	2.9 (51)	65% (25)	11% (43)	0.99 (71)
WASH Offense	13	46% (100)	46% (36)	29.5	121.6	4.1	13 (105)	.12 (78)	3.29 (28)	77% (43)	11% (101)	0.83 (123)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LOU Offense	13	54% (32)	45% (30)	19.6	30.9	251.5	8.1	12.8	23 (41)	6 (10)	.41 (9)	1.7 (34)	30% (40)	38% (8)	.5 (9)	5% (40)	2.1 (42)
WASH Defense	13	48% (58)	38% (31)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (93)	.09 (13)	1.5 (40)	30% (95)	33% (98)	.35 (90)	7% (32)	2 (57)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LOU Defense	13	51% (88)	40% (65)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.27 (87)	1.7 (111)	31% (78)	33% (99)	.26 (48)	5% (94)	1.8 (14)
WASH Offense	13	54% (38)	48% (13)	21.2	29.6	232.9	7.9	11	18 (68)	7 (26)	.37 (22)	1.5 (117)	27% (6)	34% (44)	.35 (62)	5% (35)	1.8 (121)

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 12.44 #20
Louisville's Offense Rating: 24.49 #26
Louisville's Defense Rating: 6.51 #40
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #41
Louisville's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Louisville's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.6 #21
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7 #7
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.9 #40

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 12.44 Washington: 1.52

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 13.6 Washington: 3.1

Washington's Power Ratings
Washington's Power Rating: 1.52 #64
Washington's Offense Rating: 19.16 #73
Washington's Defense Rating: 11.11 #81
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 25 #23
Washington's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
Washington's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.1 #58
Washington's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #66
Washington's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.4 #36

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Louisville Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 31.3
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.2

Louisville's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Louisville 31
Washington 20

Total Points: 51

Washington Scoring
Offense: 23.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.8
Defense: 23.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 12.3

Washington's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	12/31	Washington	34	Louisville	35	Louisville	Washington -1	Louisville	50.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Washington	0	0	1 Overs
Louisville	1	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

Louisville Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2024	Sun Bowl	Louisville vs Washington	+1.0	50.5	W 35 - 34
2023	Holiday Bowl	Louisville vs USC	-4.5	58.0	L 28 - 42
2022	Fenway Bowl	Louisville vs Cincinnati	-2.5	38.5	W 24 - 7
2021	Responder Bowl	Louisville vs Air Force	+1.0	55.0	L 28 - 31
2019	City Bowl	Louisville vs Mississippi State	+5.0	64.5	W 38 - 28

Washington Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2024	Sun Bowl	Washington vs Louisville	-1.0	50.5	L 34 - 35
2023	CFP Nat'l Title	Washington vs Michigan	+5.5	55.5	L 13 - 34
2023	CFP Semifinal	Washington vs Texas	+3.0	61.5	W 37 - 31
2022	Alamo Bowl	Washington vs Texas	+3.0	67.0	W 27 - 20
2019	Vegas Bowl	Washington vs Boise State	-4.0	48.0	W 38 - 7
2018	Rose Bowl	Washington vs Ohio State	+5.5	55.5	L 23 - 28

(#20) Louisville Info
Power Rating: 12.44 #20
Offense Rating: 24.49 #26
Defense Rating: 6.51 #40
Overall SP+ Rating: 13.6 #21
Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7 #7
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.9 #40
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #41
Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
Good Offense Success Rate of 46%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.27 PPO
Great Run Success 48%
Good Pass Success 45%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 40%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.98 PPO
Good Run Def Success 40%
Avg Pass Def Success 40%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Louisville has played in 5 Bowls in the last 5 years (3 - 2)
Louisville has played in 20 Bowls since 2000 (10 - 10)

Louisville Notes
(11/19) DB Holloway D.V arrest after blowing Stan game
(11/18) Dumbest L @ Stan. Off was decent, Pass D torched
(11/2) 200 yds Rushing, Def owned Clemson. Easy Nov
(10/23) Expl WR Lacy (#3) ops out before BC game
(10/19) Def torched by Miami. Great fight, Shough tough
(10/13) Def mauled by UVA, season saving comeback W
(10/6) Season slipping after SMU L. Rgame/Pass D bad
(9/28) Outgained ND by 100 yds. 3 TOs. Rgame better
(9/28) Shough a tough QB, gutty vs ND. Should've won
(9/23) WR J Thompson out for season (knee)

Louisville Highlights
Louisville offense is efficent (#77)
Louisville offense is explosive (#6)
Louisville Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#69)
Louisville has a great TO Margin (#82)

Louisville Deficiencies
Louisville gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#11)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCat	WASH	LOU
OverallOver	#47	#9
OffenseOff	#58	#12
DefenseDef	#46	#12
Special TeamsST	#98	#31
PassingPass	#67	#9
RushingRush	#25	#16
Run BlockRBLK	#81	#42
Pass BlockPBLK	#114	#69
Route RunningWR Rt	#7	#10
TacklingTkl	#2	#57
Run DefenseR Def	#72	#12
Pass Rush DefPRush	#69	#16
Coverage DefCov	#10	#29

Rematch from Week 1
Washington -1.0 (50.5)
Louisville won at Washington this year (35-34)

Previous Matchups
Louisville beat Washington last year (35-34)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Sun Bowl Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: LOU | WASH
Depth Chart: LOU | WASH
Rosters: LOU | WASH

(#64) Washington Info
Power Rating: 1.52 #64
Offense Rating: 19.16 #73
Defense Rating: 11.11 #81
Overall SP+ Rating: 3.1 #58
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #66
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.4 #36
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 25 #23
Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
Great Offense Success Rate of 47%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.52 PPO
Good Run Success 46%
Great Pass Success 48%
Poor OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 43%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.04 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 48%
Good Pass Def Success 38%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Washington has played in 2 CFP Playoff Games (1 - 1)
Washington has played in 5 Bowls in the last 5 years (3 - 2)
Washington has played in 17 Bowls since 2000 (7 - 10)

Washington Notes
(12/27) Hired DC Walters (Pur HC)
(11/18) QB Williams replaced Rogers (UCLA W) better QB
(11/18) Good W vs UCLA, Run Def great, Off enough
(11/13) Off abysmal vs PSU, Rgame yuck, Def torched
(11/2) Big W over USC, Outgained but forced 3 TO's
(10/6) OG'd Michigan by 150+. QB Rogers really good
(10/4) Off #'s both Run/Pass great, flags killing them
(9/27) Outgained Gers by 200+ yds. 2-12 3rd down killer
(9/11) Off: Rogers good, WRs Hunter/Boston good.
(8/4) OL & DL do not have the talent TY

Washington Highlights
Washington offense is efficent (#10)
Washington has a top Offensive Line (#20)
Washington does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#73)

Washington defense does not give up big plays (#129)
Washington has a great TO Margin (#11)

Washington Deficiencies
Washington offense is not Explosive (#50)
Washington offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#25)
Washington Does Not Stuff Runs (#101)
Washington has a bad defensive line (#76)

Louisville's OC Brian Brohm

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tyler Shough (Tr)	244	389	63%	3195	23	6	8.2
Harrison Bailey	24	33	73%	227	3	0	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Isaac Brown	165	1173	11	7.1	77
Duke Watson	67	597	7	8.9	68
Keyjuan Brown	47	243	3	5.2	24
Donald Chaney Jr. (Tr)	50	178	3	3.6	27

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ja'Corey Brooks (Tr)	61	1013	9	16.6	86
Chris Bell	43	737	4	17.1	68
Mark Redman (Tr)	23	251	3	10.9	32
Ahmari Huggins-Bruce	17	230	0	13.5	58

View Louisville's Full Roster

Louisville's DC Ron English

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
TJ Quinn	82	4	2	0
Stanquan Clark	76	8	1	2
M.J. Griffin	63	2	1	2
Tamarion McDonald (Tr)	58	4	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Ashton Gillotte	43	10	5	10
Tramel Logan Jr.	20	6	4	2
Jared Dawson	19	7	4	0
Thor Griffith (Tr)	19	5	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Quincy Riley	33	3	0	0	9
Corey Thornton (Tr)	38	0	0	1	6
Tayon Holloway (Tr)	16	2	1	0	5

Washington's OC Brennan Carroll

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Will Rogers (Tr)	220	311	71%	2458	14	7	7.9
Demond Williams Jr. (Tr)	82	105	78%	944	8	1	9.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jonah Coleman (Tr)	193	1053	10	5.5	64
Demond Williams Jr. (Tr)	83	282	2	3.4	43
Adam Mohammed (Tr)	42	193	0	4.6	32
Cameron Davis	44	190	0	4.3	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Giles Jackson	85	893	7	10.5	49
Denzel Boston	63	834	9	13.2	51
Jeremiah Hunter (Tr)	36	490	1	13.6	42
Keleki Latu (Tr)	40	371	1	9.3	36

View Washington's Full Roster

Washington's DC Stephen Belichick

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Carson Bruener	104	2	0	3	5
Alphonzo Tuputala	81	4	4	2	1
Kamren Fabiculanan	54	1	0	1	2
Sebastian Valdez (Tr)	49	5	2	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alphonzo Tuputala	81	4	4	2	1
Russell Davis II (Tr)	4	3	3	0	0
Isaiah Ward (Tr)	28	6	3	2	2
Voi Tunuufi	36	4	3	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Thaddeus Dixon	43	2	0	10
Ephesians Prysock (Tr)	45	0	0	6
Jordan Shaw	37	4	1	6