Louisville at SMU - 2025 Matchup Preview
Louisville logo Louisville Cardinals at SMU MustangsSMU logo
Saturday, November 22nd 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Gerald J. Ford Stadium - University Park, TX  (ACC)

 
Cardinals (5 - 1) (2 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (18 - 8)
Avg Score : 34 - 21 (29 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.2 - 2.8 (#22)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
SMU coming off BYE
LOU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Louisville -0.5  (SP+ LOU -6.5)

Projected Score: LOU: 28 - SMU: 27 (55)
LOU Win prob: 53% | Cover: 53%
LOU Travel: 722 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Mustangs (4 - 2) (1 - 5 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (29 - 12)
Avg Score : 34 - 22 (38 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 4.2 (#45)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
 
Louisville's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Louisville vs Eastern Kentucky-37.557.5W 51 - 17ON
Fri 9/5 Louisville vs James Madison-15.057.0W 28 - 14UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Louisville vs Bowling Green-26.550.5W 40 - 17ON
Sat 9/27 Louisville at Pittsburgh-3.053.5W 34 - 27OY
Sat 10/4 Louisville vs Virginia-6.559.5L 27 - 30UN
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 Louisville at Miami+10.549.5
Sat 10/25 Louisville vs Boston College-24.5
Sat 11/1 Louisville at Virginia Tech-21.5
Sat 11/8 Louisville vs California-21
Fri 11/14 Louisville vs Clemson-4
Sat 11/22 Louisville at SMU-0.5
Sat 11/29 Louisville vs Kentucky-18.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Louisville's Schedule
SMU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 SMU vs East Texas A&M-51.065.0W 42 - 13UN
Sat 9/6 SMU vs Baylor-3.065.5L 45 - 48ON
Sat 9/13 SMU at Missouri State-29.560.5W 28 - 10UN
Sat 9/20 SMU at TCU+6.563.5L 24 - 35UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 SMU vs Syracuse-17.556.5W 31 - 18UN
Sat 10/11 SMU vs Stanford-19.555.5W 34 - 10UY
Sat 10/18 SMU at Clemson+4.550.5
Sat 10/25 SMU at Wake Forest-5.5
Sat 11/1 SMU vs Miami+8
Sat 11/8 SMU at Boston College-16.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 SMU vs Louisville+0.5
Sat 11/29 SMU at California-13

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for SMU's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LOU#80 (.17)44% (56)3447% (48)2.52 (125)9643% (66)2413.76 (83)#4 (-.05)32% (6)2133% (12)30% (5)3.05 (22)60.31.31.5
SMU#36 (.27)44% (58)3441% (94)3.03 (61)12747% (30)2784.32 (49)#18 (.04)41% (59)22.338% (32)43% (83)2.38 (3)67.81.52.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LOU#15 (.31)46% (26)48% (20)3.09 (56)17345% (30)2514.27 (31)#73 (.18)40% (49)40% (44)40% (65)3.98 (87)46.10.81.2
SMU#38 (.24)44% (53)44% (62)2.97 (83)16944% (45)2634.41 (25)#5 (.03)37% (9)39% (35)35% (10)3.09 (13)77.71.71.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LOU Offense6342944.3%3.761.318337962413.937%63%47%43%19%.17
SMU Defense622.322.340.6%2.382.3 - - - - - 41%58%38%43%21%.04
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LOU Defense6212431.7%3.051.5 - - - - - 50%50%33%30%18%-.05
SMU Offense6343844.1%4.321.522405127278446%53%41%47%17%.27

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Louisville626:2718.244%50%6.260.31.31.54.82.3231.3
SMU626:1921.538%75%767.81.52.36.73.2328.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LOU Offense637% (133)47% (48)24.8963.910 (65).19 (40)2.52 (125)63% (112)11% (111)1.08 (33)
SMU Defense641% (7)38% (32) - - - - -.06 (12)2.58 (29)59% (15)11% (51)0.86 (28)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LOU Defense650% (77)33% (12) - - - - .06 (55)2.62 (32)62% (24)11% (34)1.12 (115)
SMU Offense646% (101)41% (94)31.5127.249 (77).12 (72)3.03 (61)84% (13)10% (98)1.04 (43)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LOU Offense663% (3)43% (66)21.532240.87.511.28 (86)5 (77).16 (106)1.5 (79)30% (59)32% (57).18 (108)7% (116)2 (67)
SMU Defense658% (130)43% (83) - - - - - - 10 (5).11 (30)1.5 (52)35% (28)32% (98).23 (48)11% (2)2 (64)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LOU Defense650% (60)30% (5) - - - - - - 6 (29)-.16 (1)1.4 (30)38% (10)21% (11).11 (21)7% (47)2.2 (107)
SMU Offense653% (41)47% (30)2332277.88.712.115 (13)6 (102).46 (23)1.6 (49)31% (72)28% (96).35 (59)6% (93)2.2 (23)

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 23.14  #23
Louisville's Offense Rating: 13.23  #57
Louisville's Defense Rating: -9.91  #7
2025 Talent Rating: 788.00  #57
Blue Chip Ratio: 7%  #46
Louisville's 2025 Expected Record: 9.2 - 2.8
Louisville's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.1  #26
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.5  #26
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.4  #26

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 23.14   SMU: 18.805

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 15.1   SMU: 8.8




SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 18.805  #22
SMU's Offense Rating: 20.49  #30
SMU's Defense Rating: -3.32  #20
2025 Talent Rating: 756.00  #64
Blue Chip Ratio: 9  #42
SMU's 2025 Expected Record: 7.8 - 4.2
SMU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.8  #44
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.0  #29
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3  #59

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Louisville Scoring
Offense: 34 PPG
Offense on Road: 29
Defense: 21 PPG
Defense on Road: 24

Louisville's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Louisville 28
SMU 27


Total Points: 55

Based on Last 4 Games
SMU 28
Louisville 25

Total Points: 52

Based on Entire Season
SMU 30
Louisville 27

Total Points: 57
SMU Scoring
Offense: 34 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3

SMU's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/05Louisville27SMU34Louisville -6.5SMU55.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
SMU111 Overs
Louisville000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 01 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#23) LOU at (#22) SMU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatLOUSMU
Power RatePwr #23 #22
SP+SP+ #26 #44
Perf GradeGrade #14 #35
OffenseOff #61 #35
DefenseDef #6 #21
Spec TeamsST #120 #78
TalentTal #57 #64
Blue ChipsBC% #46 #42

Louisville Notes
(10/17) Special teams all around one of the best in CFB
(10/17) Brohm special vs Miami, Run Off enough, Def great
(9/27) RBs D Watson will play, I Brown out vs Pitt
(9/27) 17-0 comeback win at Pitt. Moss good, RBs/OL bad
(9/17) Starting LB S Clark likely out for season (leg)
(9/5) Good battle with JMU, Run Off needs work
(7/28) Def meh LY, added 17 via portal. DL & DB heavy
(7/17) DBs all new, starters come from 8 portals.
(6/9) Stole UK AHC Marrow, best crooter in the state
(6/7) LB unit an ACC best, 4 multi year starters
(5/11) One of the most exp'd OLs, but 67% from portals

SMU Notes
(9/20) Run Off bad, Jennings TOs & Def are major issues
(9/20) Def allowing 41.5 pts vs real competition, woof
(7/27) S Isaiah Nwokobia & Ahmaad Moses great duo
(6/14) Same HC, OC, DC, S&C coaches for 4 years
(5/28) OT PJ Williams a future star, 900+ snaps of A ball
(5/28) Def good LY, must replace a lot, 13 portal adds
(5/20) DL added 10 portals (7 from P4), both DEs back
(5/20) LB replaces most, 2 productive G5 portal adds
(5/20) OL decent LY, 4 exp'd starters, 3 P4 portal adds
(5/20) Pass D really good LY, have #1 CB, good at S
(5/3) RBs rebuild. Soph McFall #1, good depth/potential
Louisville on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 63%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat
LOU OffSMU Def
Perf GradePerf #61 #21
SuccessSuc #56 #59
ExplosiveExp #32 #58
PPAPPA #80 #18
PowerPwr #57 #20
SP+SP+ #26 #59
Pts POPPO #83 #3
HavocHav #121 #11
Louisville Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 63%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat
LOU OffSMU Def
Run GameRun #38 #16
Run SuccessRSuc #48 #32
Run ExplRExp #33 #28
PPAExp #40 #12
Run BlockR Blk #118 -
OL YdsOLY #125 #29
Stuff RateStuff #128 #8
TackleTak -  #23
Louisville Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 63%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat
LOU OffSMU Def
Pass GamePass #71 #47
Pass SuccessPSuc #66 #83
Pass ExplPExl #79 #52
PPAExp #106 #30
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #105 #60
F7 HavocF7 #111 #51
DB HavocDB #116 #2
SMU on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatSMU OffLOU Def
Perf GradePerf #35 #6
SuccessSuc #58 #6
ExplosiveExp #15 #74
PPAPPA #36 #4
PowerPwr #30 #7
SP+SP+ #29 #26
Pts POPPO #49 #22
HavocHav #99 #40
SMU Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
SMU OffLOU Def
Run GameRun #124 #29
Run SuccessRSuc #94 #12
Run ExplRExp #43 #115
PPAExp #72 #55
Run BlockR Blk #31 -
OL YdsOLY #61 #32
Stuff RateStuff #71 #18
TackleTak -  #45
SMU Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatSMU OffLOU Def
Pass GamePass #35 #23
Pass SuccessPSuc #30 #5
Pass ExplPExl #49 #30
PPAExp #23 #1
Pass Block/RushP Blk #1 #2
F7 HavocF7 #98 #34
DB HavocDB #93 #47
Program Comparison
SMU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average P4
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

LOU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
SMU beat Louisville last year (34-27)

  
LOU's OC Brian Brohm (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Miller Moss (Tr)12017967%1358747.6
Brady Allen6967%69117.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Isaac Brown4633437.378
Keyjuan Brown2512635.034
Braxton Jennings127015.818
Duke Watson246402.715
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Bell35502414.364
Caullin Lacy27287010.637
Jaleel Skinner12137111.433
Dacari Collins (Tr)6105017.536

View Louisville's Full Roster

LOU's DC Ron English (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
D'Angelo Hutchinson321010
TJ Quinn312111
Clev Lubin (Tr)245412
JoJo Evans (Tr)220000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Clev Lubin (Tr)245412
Antonio Watts194312
Wesley Bailey (Tr)193230
Rene Konga153214
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rene Konga153214
Clev Lubin (Tr)245412
Antonio Watts194312

SMU's OC Casey Woods (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kevin Jennings13719172%16581568.7
Ty Hawkins11100%9009.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
TJ Harden (Tr)8541554.940
Chris Johnson Jr. (Tr)2822628.187
Dramekco Green185513.113
Derrick McFall123002.59
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Romello Brinson32484315.175
Jalen Cooper15271218.175
Jordan Hudson15203213.537
Yamir Knight (Tr)2119029.034

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Scott Symons (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Nwokobia482006
Ahmaad Moses444100
Brandon Booker331130
Cam Robertson318532
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cam Robertson318532
Jeffrey M'Ba (Tr)225400
Terry Webb (Tr)203301
Isaiah Smith227321
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Nwokobia482006
Brandon Miyazono212105
Deuce Harmon190004