Louisville at SMU - 2025 Matchup Preview
Louisville logo Louisville Cardinals at SMU MustangsSMU logo
Saturday, November 22nd 2025 (12:00 PM EST)
SMU -4 (49.5) (-185)  Open: -1.5
SMU 38 - Louisville: 6  (ACC)

 
Cardinals (9 - 4) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (18 - 8)
Avg Score : 30 - 21 (23 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
SMU coming off BYE
LOU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: SMU -4  (SP+ SMU -1)

Projected Score: LOU: 23 - SMU: 27 (51)
SMU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
LOU Travel: 722 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Mustangs (9 - 4) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (29 - 12)
Avg Score : 32 - 21 (36 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 4.3 (#36)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
Louisville's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Louisville vs Eastern Kentucky-37.557.5W 51 - 17ON
Fri 9/5 Louisville vs James Madison-15.057.0W 28 - 14UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Louisville vs Bowling Green-26.550.5W 40 - 17ON
Sat 9/27 Louisville at Pittsburgh-3.053.5W 34 - 27OY
Sat 10/4 Louisville vs Virginia-6.559.5L 27 - 30UN
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 Louisville at Miami+10.549.5W 24 - 21UY
Sat 10/25 Louisville vs Boston College-25.554.5W 38 - 24ON
Sat 11/1 Louisville at Virginia Tech-10.552.5W 28 - 16UY
Sat 11/8 Louisville vs California-18.548.5L 26 - 29ON
Fri 11/14 Louisville vs Clemson-1.550.5L 19 - 20UN
Sat 11/22 Louisville at SMU+4.049.5L 6 - 38UN
Sat 11/29 Louisville vs Kentucky-1.045.5W 41 - 0UY
Tue 12/23 Louisville vs Toledo-12.544.5W 27 - 22ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Louisville's Schedule
SMU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 SMU vs East Texas A&M-51.065.0W 42 - 13UN
Sat 9/6 SMU vs Baylor-3.065.5L 45 - 48ON
Sat 9/13 SMU at Missouri State-29.560.5W 28 - 10UN
Sat 9/20 SMU at TCU+6.563.5L 24 - 35UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 SMU vs Syracuse-17.556.5W 31 - 18UN
Sat 10/11 SMU vs Stanford-19.555.5W 34 - 10UY
Sat 10/18 SMU at Clemson+3.549.5W 35 - 24OY
Sat 10/25 SMU at Wake Forest-6.553.5L 12 - 13UN
Sat 11/1 SMU vs Miami+8.550.5W 26 - 20UY
Sat 11/8 SMU at Boston College-10.554.5W 45 - 13OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 SMU vs Louisville-4.049.5W 38 - 6UY
Sat 11/29 SMU at California-13.553.5L 35 - 38ON
Fri 1/2 SMU vs Arizona-2.555.5W 24 - 19UY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for SMU's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LOU#15 (.31)46% (26)29.948% (20)3.09 (56)17345% (30)2514.27 (31)#73 (.18)40% (49)21.240% (44)40% (65)3.98 (87)46.10.81.2
SMU#38 (.24)44% (53)32.244% (62)2.97 (83)16944% (45)2634.41 (25)#5 (.03)37% (9)20.539% (35)35% (10)3.09 (13)77.71.71.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LOU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
SMU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LOU Offense1329.92346.4%4.270.8204241732515.845%54%48%45%13%.31
SMU Defense1420.519.236.7%3.091.6 - - - - - 44%55%39%35%18%.03
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LOU Defense1321.225.540.2%3.981.2 - - - - - 49%51%40%40%16%.18
SMU Offense1432.23644.1%4.411.7234321692634.451%49%44%44%15%.24

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Louisville1327:3920.140%40%5.946.10.81.25.82.2130.3
SMU1428:2822.644%50%8.177.71.71.66.63.1331.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LOU Offense1345% (103)48% (20)29.9172.75.827 (30).2 (35)3.09 (56)65% (116)8% (27)1.04 (43)
SMU Defense1444% (9)39% (35) - - - - -.05 (2)2.72 (25)60% (10)11% (36)0.81 (6)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LOU Defense1349% (50)40% (44) - - - - .08 (43)2.9 (51)65% (25)11% (43)0.99 (71)
SMU Offense1451% (65)44% (62)38.3168.94.429 (18).12 (77)2.97 (83)70% (90)9% (49)0.93 (86)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LOU Offense1354% (32)45% (30)19.630.9251.58.112.823 (41)6 (10).41 (9)1.7 (34)30% (40)38% (8).5 (9)5% (40)2.1 (42)
SMU Defense1455% (124)35% (10) - - - - - - 16 (10).11 (17)1.7 (107)37% (7)27% (21).16 (12)7% (30)2.1 (96)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LOU Defense1351% (88)40% (65) - - - - - - 9 (76).27 (87)1.7 (111)31% (78)33% (99).26 (48)5% (94)1.8 (14)
SMU Offense1449% (70)44% (45)19.931.2262.98.413.228 (15)12 (85).37 (19)1.8 (11)33% (94)34% (34).47 (17)6% (69)2.3 (13)

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 11.58  #36
Louisville's Offense Rating: 17.35  #43
Louisville's Defense Rating: 5.77  #27
2025 Talent Rating: 788.00  #57
Blue Chip Ratio: 7%  #46
Louisville's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Louisville's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.4  #25
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6  #39
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.8  #29

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 11.58   SMU: 15.925

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 12.4   SMU: 13.4




SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 15.925  #29
SMU's Offense Rating: 19.12  #33
SMU's Defense Rating: 5.67  #26
2025 Talent Rating: 756.00  #64
Blue Chip Ratio: 9  #42
SMU's 2025 Expected Record: 8.7 - 4.3
SMU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.4  #23
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2  #22
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.5  #25

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Louisville Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 23
Defense: 21.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.5

Louisville's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
SMU 27
Louisville 23


Projected Total Points: 51
SMU Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.2

SMU's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/22SMU38Louisville6SMU -4SMU49.5Under
202410/05Louisville27SMU34Louisville -6.5SMU55.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
SMU221 Overs
Louisville001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 11 - 11 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 11 - 10 - 01 - 1

(#36) LOU at (#29) SMU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatLOUSMU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #36 #29
SP+SP+ #25 #23
Perf GradeGrade #16 #20
OffenseOff #49 #36
DefenseDef #11 #20
Spec TeamsST #70 #60
TalentTal #57 #64
Blue ChipsBC% #46 #42
Louisville Notes
(11/21) QB Moss is ? for SMU game.
(11/16) Bad L vs Clemson, QB Moss culture comments??
(11/15) 3 losses as home favs in last 6 games
(11/4) RB1 I Brown out weeks, maybe SMU/UK (leg)
(11/1) Sluggish vs VT, Run Off 235 big w/ Moss off night
(10/17) Special teams all around one of the best in CFB
(10/17) Brohm special vs Miami, Run Off enough, Def great
(9/27) 17-0 comeback win at Pitt. Moss good, RBs/OL bad
(9/17) Starting LB S Clark likely out for season (leg)
(9/5) Good battle with JMU, Run Off needs work
(7/28) Def meh LY, added 17 via portal. DL & DB heavy
(7/17) DBs all new, starters come from 8 portals.
Louisville Injury Report
SMU Notes
(10/31) Lashlee extended, will remain at SMU
(10/23) SMU has won 20 straight conference games (Wk 9)
(10/19) Big W @ Clemson, Run Def great, Jennings good
(10/19) SMU has not lost a reg season ACC game, 11-0
(9/20) Run Off bad, Jennings TOs & Def are major issues
(9/20) Def allowing 41.5 pts vs real competition, woof
(7/27) S Isaiah Nwokobia & Ahmaad Moses great duo
(6/14) Same HC, OC, DC, S&C coaches for 4 years
(5/28) OT PJ Williams a future star, 900+ snaps of A ball
(5/28) Def good LY, must replace a lot, 13 portal adds
(5/20) DL added 10 portals (7 from P4), both DEs back
(5/20) LB replaces most, 2 productive G5 portal adds
SMU Injury Report
Louisville on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
LOU OffSMU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #49 #20
SuccessSuc #26 #9
ExplosiveExp #14 #69
PPAPPA #15 #5
PowerPwr #43 #26
SP+SP+ #39 #25
Pts POPPO #31 #13
HavocHav #23 #29
Louisville Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
LOU OffSMU Def
Run GameRun #10 #13
Run SuccessRSuc #20 #35
Run ExplRExp #43 #6
PPAExp #35 #2
Run BlockR Blk #66 -
OL YdsOLY #56 #25
Stuff RateStuff #54 #27
TackleTak -  #14
Louisville Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
LOU OffSMU Def
Pass GamePass #83 #29
Pass SuccessPSuc #30 #10
Pass ExplPExl #34 #107
PPAExp #9 #17
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #69 #26
F7 HavocF7 #27 #36
DB HavocDB #40 #30
SMU on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatSMU OffLOU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #36 #11
SuccessSuc #53 #49
ExplosiveExp #21 #109
PPAPPA #38 #73
PowerPwr #33 #27
SP+SP+ #22 #29
Pts POPPO #25 #87
HavocHav #46 #62
SMU Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
SMU OffLOU Def
Run GameRun #88 #41
Run SuccessRSuc #62 #44
Run ExplRExp #86 #71
PPAExp #77 #43
Run BlockR Blk #22 -
OL YdsOLY #83 #51
Stuff RateStuff #57 #22
TackleTak -  #39
SMU Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatSMU OffLOU Def
Pass GamePass #32 #20
Pass SuccessPSuc #45 #65
Pass ExplPExl #11 #111
PPAExp #19 #87
Pass Block/RushP Blk #6 #3
F7 HavocF7 #49 #43
DB HavocDB #69 #94
Program Comparison
SMU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

LOU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 62° - Wind: 8 mph
Rematch from Week 13
SMU -4.0 (49.5)
SMU won vs Louisville this year (38-6)

Previous Matchups
SMU beat Louisville last year (38-6)
SMU beat Louisville in 2024 (34-27)

  
LOU's OC Brian Brohm (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Miller Moss (Tr)24438064%26791677.1
Deuce Adams152171%112005.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Isaac Brown10188478.878
Keyjuan Brown9670467.367
Braxton Jennings3720015.422
Shaun Boykins3719015.126
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Bell72917612.764
Caullin Lacy60635210.648
Dacari Collins (Tr)13219116.836
Jaleel Skinner2120429.733

View Louisville's Full Roster

LOU's DC Ron English (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Quinn958314
D'Angelo Hutchinson843025
JoJo Evans (Tr)643134
Clev Lubin (Tr)5913873
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Clev Lubin (Tr)5913873
Wesley Bailey (Tr)397650
Adonijah Green316440
TJ Quinn958314
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
D'Angelo Hutchinson843025
Rene Konga295225
Tayon Holloway424104

SMU's OC Casey Woods (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kevin Jennings30045466%364126138.0
Charlie Fiser44100%30007.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
TJ Harden (Tr)17178794.653
Chris Johnson Jr. (Tr)6747947.187
Derrick McFall3518945.448
Dramekco Green259013.615
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Hudson61766612.670
Romello Brinson43638314.875
Yamir Knight (Tr)54637511.861
Matthew Hibner31436414.180

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Scott Symons (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ahmaad Moses1046103
Isaiah Nwokobia802007
Brandon Booker693142
Alex Kilgore604002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Smith5318941
Terry Webb (Tr)467624
Jeffrey M'Ba (Tr)428600
Cam Robertson5210543
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Miyazono445208
Isaiah Nwokobia802007
Deuce Harmon341017