Kentucky at Louisville - 2025 Matchup Preview
Kentucky logo   Kentucky Wildcats at Louisville Cardinals  Louisville logo
Saturday, November 29th 2025 (12:00 PM EST)
Louisville -1.0 (45.5) (-150)  Open: -4.0 | 47.5
Louisville 41 - Kentucky: 0

 
Wildcats (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (77 - 73)
Avg Score : 23 - 26 (11 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
UK 2nd straight Road Game
LOU is playing their 7th straight game
UK is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Louisville -9.5  (SP+ LOU -11)

Projected Score: UK: 19 - LOU: 28 (47)
LOU Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
UK Travel: 69 miles
Cardinals (9 - 4) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (18 - 8)
Avg Score : 30 - 21 (34 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
 
Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Kentucky vs Toledo-10.048.5W 24 - 16UN
Sat 9/6 Kentucky vs Ole Miss+8.051.5L 23 - 30OY
Sat 9/13 Kentucky vs Eastern Michigan-26.549.5W 48 - 23ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Kentucky at South Carolina+5.546.5L 13 - 35ON
Sat 10/4 Kentucky at Georgia+19.548.5L 14 - 35ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Kentucky vs Texas+12.545.5L 13 - 16UY
Sat 10/25 Kentucky vs Tennessee+7.555.5L 34 - 56ON
Sat 11/1 Kentucky at Auburn+11.544.5W 10 - 3UY
Sat 11/8 Kentucky vs Florida+4.544.5W 38 - 7OY
Sat 11/15 Kentucky vs Tennessee Tech-22.552.5W 42 - 10UY
Sat 11/22 Kentucky at Vanderbilt+7.053.5L 17 - 45ON
Sat 11/29 Kentucky at Louisville+1.045.5L 0 - 41UN

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 5, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 5, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 5, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule
Louisville's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Louisville vs Eastern Kentucky-37.557.5W 51 - 17ON
Fri 9/5 Louisville vs James Madison-15.057.0W 28 - 14UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Louisville vs Bowling Green-26.550.5W 40 - 17ON
Sat 9/27 Louisville at Pittsburgh-3.053.5W 34 - 27OY
Sat 10/4 Louisville vs Virginia-6.559.5L 27 - 30UN
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 Louisville at Miami+10.549.5W 24 - 21UY
Sat 10/25 Louisville vs Boston College-25.554.5W 38 - 24ON
Sat 11/1 Louisville at Virginia Tech-10.552.5W 28 - 16UY
Sat 11/8 Louisville vs California-18.548.5L 26 - 29ON
Fri 11/14 Louisville vs Clemson-1.550.5L 19 - 20UN
Sat 11/22 Louisville at SMU+4.049.5L 6 - 38UN
Sat 11/29 Louisville vs Kentucky-1.045.5W 41 - 0UY
Tue 12/23 Louisville vs Toledo-12.544.5W 27 - 22ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Louisville's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UK#118 (.09)41% (89)2347% (31)3.02 (71)14635% (123)1853.49 (104)#62 (.16)46% (111)26.449% (122)42% (75)3.44 (31)52.11.91.3
LOU#15 (.31)46% (26)29.948% (20)3.09 (56)17345% (30)2514.27 (31)#73 (.18)40% (49)21.240% (44)40% (65)3.98 (87)46.10.81.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UK0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
LOU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UK Offense122310.841.5%3.491.919331146185454%46%47%35%19%.09
LOU Defense1321.218.940.2%3.981.2 - - - - - 49%51%40%40%16%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UK Defense1226.431.846%3.441.3 - - - - - 58%42%49%42%17%.16
LOU Offense1329.933.846.4%4.270.8204241732515.845%54%48%45%13%.31

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Kentucky1229:3219.434%44%6.352.11.91.35.61.8227
Louisville1327:3920.140%40%5.946.10.81.25.82.2130.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UK Offense1254% (37)47% (31)36.7146.4411 (116).05 (107)3.02 (71)73% (71)13% (120)0.73 (133)
LOU Defense1349% (50)40% (44) - - - - .08 (43)2.9 (51)65% (25)11% (43)0.99 (71)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UK Defense1258% (129)49% (122) - - - - .14 (75)3 (67)78% (101)12% (32)0.88 (24)
LOU Offense1345% (103)48% (20)29.9172.75.827 (30).2 (35)3.09 (56)65% (116)8% (27)1.04 (43)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UK Offense1246% (97)35% (123)13.926184.87.113.315 (98)17 (127).13 (117)1.9 (10)33% (92)28% (104).18 (114)7% (103)2.1 (46)
LOU Defense1351% (88)40% (65) - - - - - - 9 (76).27 (87)1.7 (111)31% (78)33% (99).26 (48)5% (94)1.8 (14)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UK Defense1242% (7)42% (75) - - - - - - 10 (66).19 (46)1.5 (27)29% (109)31% (83).3 (68)5% (95)2 (61)
LOU Offense1354% (32)45% (30)19.630.9251.58.112.823 (41)6 (10).41 (9)1.7 (34)30% (40)38% (8).5 (9)5% (40)2.1 (42)

Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 8.03  #45
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 17.41  #42
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 9.38  #42
2025 Talent Rating: 896.00  #26
Blue Chip Ratio: 25%  #23
Kentucky's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Kentucky's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.8  #66
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5  #80
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.7  #48

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 8.03   Louisville: 14.49

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 1.8   Louisville: 12.4




Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 14.49  #36
Louisville's Offense Rating: 17.35  #43
Louisville's Defense Rating: 5.77  #27
2025 Talent Rating: 788.00  #57
Blue Chip Ratio: 7  #46
Louisville's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Louisville's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.4  #25
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6  #39
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.8  #29

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense on Road: 10.8
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.8

Kentucky's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
Louisville 28
Kentucky 19


Projected Total Points: 47
Louisville Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.8
Defense: 21.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.9

Louisville's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 7 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 7 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/29Louisville41Kentucky0Louisville -1.0Louisville45.5Under
202411/30Kentucky14Louisville41Louisville -3.5Louisville48.5Over
202311/25Louisville31Kentucky38Louisville -7.5Kentucky47.5Over
202211/26Kentucky26Louisville13Kentucky -3.5Kentucky42.5Under
202111/27Louisville21Kentucky52Louisville -3Kentucky58.0Over
201911/30Kentucky45Louisville13Kentucky -3.5Kentucky51.0Over
201811/24Louisville10Kentucky56Kentucky -17Kentucky53.0Over
201711/25Kentucky17Louisville44Louisville -10Louisville68.0Under
201611/26Louisville38Kentucky41Louisville -26Kentucky70.5Over
201511/28Kentucky24Louisville38Louisville -4Louisville51.5Over
201411/29Louisville44Kentucky40Louisville -14Kentucky0
201309/14Kentucky13Louisville27Louisville -10.5Louisville0
201209/02Louisville32Kentucky14
201109/17Kentucky17Louisville24
201009/04Louisville16Kentucky23
200909/19Kentucky31Louisville27
200808/31Louisville2Kentucky27
200709/15Kentucky40Louisville34
200609/03Louisville59Kentucky28
200509/04Kentucky24Louisville31
200409/05Louisville28Kentucky0
200308/31Kentucky24Louisville40
200209/01Louisville17Kentucky22
200109/01Kentucky10Louisville36
200009/01Louisville40Kentucky34
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Louisville1457 Overs
Kentucky1173 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams10 - 153 - 93 - 40 - 5
Road Teams15 - 109 - 35 - 04 - 3

(#45) UK at (#36) LOU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUKLOU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #45 #36
SP+SP+ #66 #25
Perf GradeGrade #75 #16
OffenseOff #89 #49
DefenseDef #42 #11
Spec TeamsST #112 #70
TalentTal #26 #57
Blue ChipsBC% #23 #46
Kentucky Notes
(12/16) Bateman is a terrible DC. Lost play calling
(12/15) Finish 2 game L streak, Def fell apart. Stoops fired
(12/12) Hired DC Jay Bateman, was DC a Tex A&M
(12/4) Hired Joe Sloan at OC, was at LSU under BK
(12/1) Hired Oregon OC Will Stein, who played at L'ville
(11/30) Stoops fired after 5-7 season and L'ville blowout
(11/9) 2 game win streak, killed Gators. Could bowl?
(11/5) No P4 home wins since Sept '23, 4-19 overall
(11/1) Great W @ Aub. Ugly game, Def played great
(10/23) Now 1-12 vs P4 teams since start of '24
(10/18) OG'd UT 395 - 179 and lost?! QB Boley looked decent
(10/5) Now 1-11 in last 12 SEC games post UGA game
Kentucky Injury Report
Louisville Notes
(11/21) QB Moss is ? for SMU game.
(11/16) Bad L vs Clemson, QB Moss culture comments??
(11/15) 3 losses as home favs in last 6 games
(11/4) RB1 I Brown out weeks, maybe SMU/UK (leg)
(11/1) Sluggish vs VT, Run Off 235 big w/ Moss off night
(10/17) Special teams all around one of the best in CFB
(10/17) Brohm special vs Miami, Run Off enough, Def great
(9/27) 17-0 comeback win at Pitt. Moss good, RBs/OL bad
(9/17) Starting LB S Clark likely out for season (leg)
(9/5) Good battle with JMU, Run Off needs work
(7/28) Def meh LY, added 17 via portal. DL & DB heavy
(7/17) DBs all new, starters come from 8 portals.
Louisville Injury Report
Kentucky on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
UK OffLOU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #89 #11
SuccessSuc #89 #49
ExplosiveExp #123 #109
PPAPPA #118 #73
PowerPwr #42 #27
SP+SP+ #80 #29
Pts POPPO #104 #87
HavocHav #121 #62
Kentucky Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
UK OffLOU Def
Run GameRun #90 #41
Run SuccessRSuc #31 #44
Run ExplRExp #133 #71
PPAExp #107 #43
Run BlockR Blk #47 -
OL YdsOLY #71 #51
Stuff RateStuff #78 #22
TackleTak -  #39
Kentucky Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
UK OffLOU Def
Pass GamePass #117 #20
Pass SuccessPSuc #123 #65
Pass ExplPExl #10 #111
PPAExp #117 #87
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #54 #3
F7 HavocF7 #120 #43
DB HavocDB #103 #94
Louisville on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatLOU OffUK Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #49 #42
SuccessSuc #26 #111
ExplosiveExp #14 #9
PPAPPA #15 #62
PowerPwr #43 #42
SP+SP+ #39 #48
Pts POPPO #31 #31
HavocHav #23 #56
Louisville Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
LOU OffUK Def
Run GameRun #10 #26
Run SuccessRSuc #20 #122
Run ExplRExp #43 #24
PPAExp #35 #75
Run BlockR Blk #66 -
OL YdsOLY #56 #67
Stuff RateStuff #54 #48
TackleTak -  #27
Louisville Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatLOU OffUK Def
Pass GamePass #83 #109
Pass SuccessPSuc #30 #75
Pass ExplPExl #34 #27
PPAExp #9 #46
Pass Block/RushP Blk #69 #24
F7 HavocF7 #27 #32
DB HavocDB #40 #95
Program Comparison
LOU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

UK 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Papa John's Cardinal Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 14
Louisville -1.0 (45.5)
Louisville won vs Kentucky this year (41-0)

Previous Matchups
Louisville beat Kentucky last year (41-0)
Louisville beat Kentucky in 2024 (41-14)
Kentucky beat Louisville in 2023 (38-31)

  
UK's OC Bush Hamdan (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Cutter Boley19830166%216015127.2
Zach Calzada (Tr)285848%238024.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Seth McGowan (Tr)165725124.420
Dante Dowdell (Tr)11256035.079
Jason Patterson5722513.929
Cutter Boley668521.330
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kendrick Law (Tr)53540310.271
Hardley Gilmore IV (Tr)28313111.245
Willie Rodriguez23310113.553
Josh Kattus17195211.534

View Kentucky's Full Roster

UK's DC Brad White (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Bryant762001
Daveren Rayner697224
Alex Afari Jr.617361
J.Q. Hardaway582105
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Steven Soles Jr.115432
Mi'Quise Grace (Tr)317462
Lorenzo Cowan (Tr)135300
Tavion Gadson284330
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
J.Q. Hardaway582105
Daveren Rayner697224
Terhyon Nichols181024

LOU's OC Brian Brohm (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Miller Moss (Tr)24438064%26791677.1
Deuce Adams152171%112005.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Isaac Brown10188478.878
Keyjuan Brown9670467.367
Braxton Jennings3720015.422
Shaun Boykins3719015.126
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Bell72917612.764
Caullin Lacy60635210.648
Dacari Collins (Tr)13219116.836
Jaleel Skinner2120429.733

View Louisville's Full Roster

LOU's DC Ron English (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Quinn958314
D'Angelo Hutchinson843025
JoJo Evans (Tr)643134
Clev Lubin (Tr)5913873
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Clev Lubin (Tr)5913873
Wesley Bailey (Tr)397650
Adonijah Green316440
TJ Quinn958314
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
D'Angelo Hutchinson843025
Rene Konga295225
Tayon Holloway424104