Toledo at Bowling Green - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 11th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Toledo -10.5 (45.5) (-410) Open: -7.0
Bowling Green 28 - Toledo: 23 (Mid-American)

Rockets (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (72 - 40)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (17 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 7)

TOL coming off BYE
BGSU coming off BYE
Our Line: Toledo -22 (SP+ TOL -18.5)
Projected Score: TOL: 32 - BGSU: 10 (43)
TOL Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
TOL Travel: 19 miles

Falcons (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Eddie George (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 21 - 24 (17 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)

Matchup
Schedules
TOL Players
BGSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Toledo's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Toledo at Kentucky	+10.0	48.5	L 16 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Toledo vs Western Kentucky	-8.5	57.5	W 45 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Toledo vs Morgan State	-33.5	54.5	W 60 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Toledo at Western Michigan	-13.5	48.5	L 13 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/27	Toledo vs Akron	-21.5	50.5	W 45 - 3	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Toledo at Bowling Green	-10.5	45.5	L 23 - 28	O	N
Sat 10/18	Toledo vs Kent State	-25.5	48.5	W 45 - 10	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Toledo at Washington State	-1.5	44.5	L 7 - 28	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/5	Toledo vs Northern Illinois	-14.5	42.5	W 42 - 3	O	Y
Wed 11/12	Toledo at Miami (OH)	-6.5	44.5	W 24 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Toledo vs Ball State	-29.5	45.5	W 38 - 9	O	N
Sat 11/29	Toledo at Central Michigan	-11.5	46.5	W 21 - 3	U	Y
Tue 12/23	Toledo vs Louisville	+12.5	44.5	L 22 - 27	O	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 9
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule

Bowling Green's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Bowling Green vs Lafayette	-21.0	53.0	W 26 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/6	Bowling Green at Cincinnati	+21.5	46.5	L 20 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Bowling Green vs Liberty	+6.0	51.5	W 23 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Bowling Green at Louisville	+26.5	50.5	L 17 - 40	O	Y
Sat 9/27	Bowling Green at Ohio	+7.5	49.5	L 20 - 35	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Bowling Green vs Toledo	+10.5	45.5	W 28 - 23	O	Y
Sat 10/18	Bowling Green vs Central Michigan	-3.0	43.5	L 6 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/25	Bowling Green at Kent State	-7.5	47.5	L 21 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/1	Bowling Green vs Buffalo	-2.5	44.5	L 3 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/8	Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan	+3.0	49.5	L 21 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/18	Bowling Green vs Akron	-2.5	47.5	L 16 - 19	U	N
Tue 11/25	Bowling Green at Massachusetts	-14.0	44.5	W 45 - 14	O	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Bowling Green's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL	#111 (.11)	41% (95)	30.8	38% (120)	2.66 (121)	111	44% (46)	227	3.55 (99)	#20 (.09)	40% (43)	13.3	42% (60)	38% (35)	3.87 (79)	46.7	1.3	1.3
BGSU	#53 (.21)	43% (68)	20.5	41% (99)	3.01 (74)	134	44% (38)	207	3.84 (77)	#43 (.13)	38% (15)	24.3	39% (29)	37% (20)	3.47 (32)	41.1	0.8	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BGSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Offense	13	30.8	17.3	40.8%	3.55	1.3	18	339	111	227	3.5	46%	53%	38%	44%	16%	.11
BGSU Defense	13	24.3	19.5	37.6%	3.47	1	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	39%	37%	16%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Defense	13	13.3	16.7	39.8%	3.87	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	42%	38%	19%	.09
BGSU Offense	13	20.5	17	42.6%	3.84	0.8	18	341	134	207	4.4	47%	53%	41%	44%	18%	.21

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Toledo	13	25:06	18.4	36%	50%	5.4	46.7	1.3	1.3	6.2	2.1	2	31.4
Bowling Green	13	29:21	18.2	37%	59%	4.8	41.1	0.8	1	4.9	2.2	2	29.2

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Offense	13	46% (96)	38% (120)	31.5	111.3	3.5	12 (114)	-.04 (127)	2.66 (121)	57% (130)	10% (74)	0.83 (125)
BGSU Defense	13	50% (66)	39% (29)	-	-	-	-	.17 (94)	3.28 (109)	80% (113)	10% (75)	1.1 (116)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Defense	13	52% (83)	42% (60)	-	-	-	-	.11 (66)	3.01 (69)	77% (89)	12% (31)	0.95 (48)
BGSU Offense	13	47% (92)	41% (99)	30.6	133.5	4.4	20 (67)	.14 (64)	3.01 (74)	78% (34)	12% (118)	1.08 (30)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Offense	13	53% (41)	44% (46)	19.2	31	227.2	7.3	11.8	26 (26)	7 (26)	.26 (67)	1.6 (61)	31% (65)	27% (108)	.18 (115)	6% (76)	2 (68)
BGSU Defense	13	49% (66)	37% (20)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (52)	.11 (19)	1.6 (65)	34% (31)	24% (3)	.15 (9)	6% (69)	2 (46)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Defense	13	48% (51)	38% (35)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.08 (11)	1.5 (29)	34% (38)	29% (39)	.22 (34)	7% (35)	2 (43)
BGSU Offense	13	53% (42)	44% (38)	18.7	28.4	207.3	7.3	11.1	16 (87)	6 (10)	.28 (53)	1.4 (127)	32% (86)	32% (67)	.29 (85)	5% (53)	1.8 (128)

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 8.00 #46
Toledo's Offense Rating: 15.43 #55
Toledo's Defense Rating: 7.43 #32
2025 Talent Rating: 718.00 #71
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #56
Toledo's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Toledo's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.0 #48
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #75
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.5 #21

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 571
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 8.00 Bowling Green: -14.92

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 6.0 Bowling Green: -12.6

Bowling Green's Power Ratings
Bowling Green's Power Rating: -14.92 #133
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: 0.09 #133
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: 22.33 #125
2025 Talent Rating: 528.00 #112
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Bowling Green's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Bowling Green's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.6 #113
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #128
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.8 #83

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 571
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.3
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 16.7

Toledo's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Toledo 32
Bowling Green 10

Projected Total Points: 43

Bowling Green Scoring
Offense: 20.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 17
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.5

Bowling Green's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/11	Bowling Green	28	Toledo	23	Toledo -10.5	Bowling Green	45.5	Over
2024	10/26	Toledo	26	Bowling Green	41	Toledo -1.5	Bowling Green	47.5	Over
2023	11/14	Bowling Green	31	Toledo	32	Toledo -9.5	Bowling Green	48.5	Over
2022	11/15	Toledo	35	Bowling Green	42	Toledo -14.5	Bowling Green	47.0	Over
2021	11/10	Bowling Green	17	Toledo	49	Toledo -10.5	Toledo	50.0	Over
2020	11/04	Toledo	38	Bowling Green	3	Toledo -24	Toledo	63.0	Under
2019	10/12	Bowling Green	20	Toledo	7	Toledo -26.5	Bowling Green	65.0	Under
2018	10/06	Toledo	52	Bowling Green	36	Toledo -23	Bowling Green	71.0	Over
2017	11/15	Bowling Green	37	Toledo	66	Toledo -17.5	Toledo	66.0	Over
2016	10/15	Toledo	42	Bowling Green	35	Toledo -24	Bowling Green	71.0	Over
2015	11/17	Bowling Green	28	Toledo	44	Bowling Green -9	Toledo	72.5	Under
2014	11/19	Toledo	27	Bowling Green	20	Toledo -6.5	Toledo	0
2013	10/26	Bowling Green	25	Toledo	28	Bowling Green -3	Toledo	0
2012	09/15	Toledo	27	Bowling Green	15
2011	10/15	Bowling Green	21	Toledo	28
2010	11/17	Toledo	33	Bowling Green	14
2009	11/27	Bowling Green	38	Toledo	24
2008	11/28	Toledo	10	Bowling Green	38
2007	11/23	Bowling Green	37	Toledo	10
2006	11/21	Toledo	31	Bowling Green	21
2005	11/22	Bowling Green	41	Toledo	44
2004	11/23	Toledo	49	Bowling Green	41
2003	11/29	Bowling Green	31	Toledo	23
2001	11/23	Bowling Green	56	Toledo	21
2000	11/21	Toledo	51	Bowling Green	17

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Bowling Green	9	7	8 Overs
Toledo	16	6	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	15 - 10	5 - 8	2 - 6	3 - 2
Road Teams	10 - 15	8 - 5	2 - 3	6 - 2

(#46) TOL at (#133) BGSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TOL	BGSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#46	#133
SP+SP+	#48	#113
Perf GradeGrade	#11	#102
OffenseOff	#41	#104
DefenseDef	#6	#88
Spec TeamsST	#14	#77
TalentTal	#71	#112
Blue ChipsBC%	#56	#101

Toledo Notes(12/11) HC Candle left for UConn? Very odd move
(12/11) Hired HC Mike Jacobs (Mercer). Pot. big upgrade
(11/13) Beat M-OH w/ QB2, not impressive. 3 TOs, 313 yds
(10/31) Killed by Wazzu in bad spot, Run Off awful 61 yds
(10/31) 8-4 best possible finish & must win @ Mia OH
(10/12) Blew another vs BG, OG'd BG by 200 yds & still lost
(10/12) Penalties, turnovers & awful coaching killing Toledo
(9/24) Gleason/Off disappointing. Penalty issues hurting
(9/20) Yearly awful L vs 0-3 WMU, Gleason 89 yds, 2 INT
(8/30) Run Off terrible, Run Def bad in L to UK
(8/20) CB A. Smith a true shutdown & NFL prospect
(7/28) OL 5/5 back. Best in MAC, top 3 in the G5
Toledo Injury Report

Bowling Green Notes(11/3) Fired OC Travis Partidge after Buffalo loss
(11/1) QB4 Hunter Najm (Fr) may have to start vs Buf
(10/31) QB1 Pyne ?, QB2 Anderson ?, QB3 May out
(10/31) Haven't played awful, W's over Liberty/Toledo
(10/31) Can still bowl, favs in 3 of final 4. Buf game big
(10/31) Run Def really good, Off just doesn't have weapons
(10/31) Falcons blew a 21-point lead to Kent, QBs awful
(10/12) Great W vs Toledo, only 226 yds & 2-12 on 3rd down
(10/12) Off still bottom 5 in CFB, zero playmakers/scheme
(9/25) LB D Pringle out for season, best Def player
(9/22) Held Liberty to 300 yds & forced 4 TOs. Huge W
(7/24) QB1 Drew Pyne (Miz) post spring add, starter
Bowling Green Injury Report

Toledo on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	BGSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#41	#88
SuccessSuc	#95	#15
ExplosiveExp	#83	#98
PPAPPA	#111	#43
PowerPwr	#55	#125
SP+SP+	#75	#83
Pts POPPO	#99	#32
HavocHav	#72	#73

Toledo Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	BGSU Def
Run GameRun	#62	#89
Run SuccessRSuc	#120	#29
Run ExplRExp	#125	#116
PPAExp	#127	#94
Run BlockR Blk	#52	-
OL YdsOLY	#121	#109
Stuff RateStuff	#120	#103
TackleTak	-	#62

Toledo Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	BGSU Def
Pass GamePass	#6	#103
Pass SuccessPSuc	#46	#20
Pass ExplPExl	#61	#65
PPAExp	#67	#19
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#97	#47
F7 HavocF7	#74	#75
DB HavocDB	#76	#69

Bowling Green on Offense

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	BGSU Off	TOL Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#104	#6
SuccessSuc	#68	#43
ExplosiveExp	#75	#33
PPAPPA	#53	#20
PowerPwr	#133	#32
SP+SP+	#128	#21
Pts POPPO	#77	#79
HavocHav	#104	#28

Bowling Green Run Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	BGSU Off	TOL Def
Run GameRun	#101	#16
Run SuccessRSuc	#99	#60
Run ExplRExp	#30	#48
PPAExp	#64	#66
Run BlockR Blk	#49	-
OL YdsOLY	#74	#69
Stuff RateStuff	#124	#81
TackleTak	-	#41

Bowling Green Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	BGSU Off	TOL Def
Pass GamePass	#131	#13
Pass SuccessPSuc	#38	#35
Pass ExplPExl	#127	#29
PPAExp	#53	#11
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#86	#4
F7 HavocF7	#118	#31
DB HavocDB	#53	#35

Program Comparison
BGSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

TOL 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Doyt Perry Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 7
Toledo 10.5 (45.5)
Bowling Green won vs Toledo this year (28-23)

Previous Matchups
Bowling Green beat Toledo last year (28-23)
Bowling Green beat Toledo in 2024 (41-26)
Toledo beat Bowling Green in 2023 (32-31)

TOL's OC Mike Hallett (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tucker Gleason	207	320	65%	2515	21	9	7.9
Kalieb Osborne	32	52	62%	427	3	0	8.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
DeaMonte Trayanum	182	1015	12	5.6	75
Kenji Christian (Tr)	105	528	4	5.0	37
Kalieb Osborne	51	282	2	5.5	33
Tucker Gleason	46	144	4	3.1	35

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Junior Vandeross	82	1008	11	12.3	71
Trayvon Rudolph (Tr)	39	435	2	11.2	58
Jacob Petersen (Tr)	25	335	3	13.4	28
DeaMonte Trayanum	21	212	2	10.1	57

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
K'Von Sherman	93	15	5	6	1
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren	77	6	1	3	6
Chris D'Appolonia	59	4	1	2	4
Andre Fuller	49	3	0	0	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Martez Poynter	43	10	7	9	0
Malachi Davis	35	10	6	8	1
K'Von Sherman	93	15	5	6	1
Jeremiah Peters	24	6	4	3	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Avery Smith	42	5	0	0	10
Andre Fuller	49	3	0	0	10
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren	77	6	1	3	6

BGSU's OC Greg Nosal (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Drew Pyne (Tr)	94	151	62%	882	4	5	5.8
Hunter Najm (Tr)	33	66	50%	473	5	4	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Austyn Dendy (Tr)	108	493	5	4.6	24
Cameron Pettaway	72	365	0	5.1	34
Chris McMillian	84	342	3	4.1	33
Kaderris Roberts	48	215	0	4.5	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jyrin Johnson (Tr)	37	466	2	12.6	38
RJ Garcia II	27	283	0	10.5	28
Finn Hogan	13	183	0	14.1	24
Jacob Harris	19	182	5	9.6	38

View Bowling Green's Full Roster

BGSU's DC Steve Morrison (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Gideon Lampron (Tr)	119	18	3	4	1
Kal-El Pascal	80	4	0	0	5
Mark Cannon Jr. (Tr)	57	6	2	1	1
Jalen Mcclendon (Tr)	56	1	1	0	7

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Myles Bradley	20	6	5	7	0
Eriq George (Tr)	26	5	4	2	0
Gideon Lampron (Tr)	119	18	3	4	1
David Afogho	37	4	3	6	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
JoJo Johnson (Tr)	22	0	0	13
Jalen Mcclendon (Tr)	56	1	1	7
Kal-El Pascal	80	4	0	5