Toledo at Bowling Green Game Matchup
Toledo logo Toledo Rockets at Bowling Green FalconsBowling Green logo
Saturday, October 11th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Doyt Perry Stadium - Bowling Green, OH  (Mid-American)

 
Rockets (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (72 - 40)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (22 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.6 - 2.4 (#12)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 11)
TOL coming off BYE
BGSU coming off BYE
Our Line: Toledo -9.5   (SP+ TOL -12.5)
Projected Score: TOL: 28 - BGSU: 19 (50)
TOL Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
TOL Travel: 19 miles
Falcons (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Eddie George (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 27 - 22 (24 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.2 - 6.8 (#88)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 9)
 
Toledo's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Toledo at Kentucky+11.50.0
Sat 9/6 Toledo vs Western Kentucky-13
Sat 9/13 Toledo vs Morgan State-22
Sat 9/20 Toledo at Western Michigan-13.5
Sat 9/27 Toledo vs Akron-20.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Toledo at Bowling Green-9.5
Sat 10/18 Toledo vs Kent State-27.5
Sat 10/25 Toledo at Washington State-6
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/5 Toledo vs Northern Illinois-12
Wed 11/12 Toledo at Miami (OH)-7.5
Sat 11/22 Toledo vs Ball State-23.5
Sat 11/29 Toledo at Central Michigan-9.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 10
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 10
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule
Bowling Green's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Wed 8/27 Bowling Green vs Lafayette-10
Sat 9/6 Bowling Green at Cincinnati+20.5
Sat 9/13 Bowling Green vs Liberty+11
Sat 9/20 Bowling Green at Louisville+28
Sat 9/27 Bowling Green at Ohio+12
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Bowling Green vs Toledo+9.5
Sat 10/18 Bowling Green vs Central Michigan-2.5
Sat 10/25 Bowling Green at Kent State-10
Sat 11/1 Bowling Green vs Buffalo+3.5
Sat 11/8 Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan+1.5
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/18 Bowling Green vs Akron-8.5
Tue 11/25 Bowling Green at Massachusetts-6

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Bowling Green's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL#111 (.11)41% (95)28.338% (120)2.66 (121)11144% (46)2273.55 (99)#20 (.09)40% (43)23.242% (60)38% (35)3.87 (79)46.71.31.3
BGSU#53 (.21)43% (68)27.141% (99)3.01 (74)13444% (38)2073.84 (77)#43 (.13)38% (15)21.639% (29)37% (20)3.47 (32)41.10.81
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BGSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Offense1328.322.240.8%3.551.3183391112273.546%53%38%44%16%.11
BGSU Defense1321.618.537.6%3.471 - - - - - 50%49%39%37%16%.13
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Defense1323.221.339.8%3.871.3 - - - - - 52%48%42%38%19%.09
BGSU Offense1327.124.242.6%3.840.8183411342074.447%53%41%44%18%.21

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Toledo1325:0618.436%50%5.446.71.31.36.22.1231.4
Bowling Green1329:2118.237%59%4.841.10.814.92.2229.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Offense1346% (96)38% (120)31.5111.33.512 (114)-.04 (127)2.66 (121)57% (130)10% (74)0.83 (125)
BGSU Defense1350% (66)39% (29) - - - - .17 (94)3.28 (109)80% (113)10% (75)1.1 (116)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Defense1352% (83)42% (60) - - - - .11 (66)3.01 (69)77% (89)12% (31)0.95 (48)
BGSU Offense1347% (92)41% (99)30.6133.54.420 (67).14 (64)3.01 (74)78% (34)12% (118)1.08 (30)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Offense1353% (41)44% (46)19.231227.27.311.826 (26)7 (26).26 (67)1.6 (61)31% (65)27% (108).18 (115)6% (76)2 (68)
BGSU Defense1349% (66)37% (20) - - - - - - 11 (52).11 (19)1.6 (65)34% (31)24% (3).15 (9)6% (69)2 (46)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Defense1348% (51)38% (35) - - - - - - 10 (66).08 (11)1.5 (29)34% (38)29% (39).22 (34)7% (35)2 (43)
BGSU Offense1353% (42)44% (38)18.728.4207.37.311.116 (87)6 (10).28 (53)1.4 (127)32% (86)32% (67).29 (85)5% (53)1.8 (128)

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: -1.41 #68
Toledo's Offense Rating: 13.54 #72
Toledo's Defense Rating: 14.95 #68
2025 Talent Rating: 678.00 #76
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #62
Toledo's 2025 Expected Record: 9.6 - 2.4
Toledo's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.4 #71
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #77
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #63

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 528.62
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo: -1.41   Bowling Green: -11.115

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: -1.4   Bowling Green: -13.7




Bowling Green's Power Ratings
Bowling Green's Power Rating: -11.115 #102
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: 7.36 #109
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: 20.89 #103
2025 Talent Rating: 490.00 #108
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #99
Bowling Green's 2025 Expected Record: 5.2 - 6.8
Bowling Green's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.7 #111
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #98
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #121

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 528.62
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29


Toledo Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.2
Defense: 23.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.3

Toledo's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Toledo 28
Bowling Green 19

Projected Total Points: 50
Bowling Green Scoring
Offense: 27.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.2
Defense: 21.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.5

Bowling Green's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/26Toledo26Bowling Green41Bowling GreenToledo -1.5Bowling Green47.5Over
202311/14Bowling Green31Toledo32ToledoToledo -9.5Bowling Green48.5Over
202211/15Toledo35Bowling Green42Bowling GreenToledo -14.5Bowling Green47.0Over
202111/10Bowling Green17Toledo49ToledoToledo -10.5Toledo50.0Over
202011/04Toledo38Bowling Green3ToledoToledo -24Toledo63.0Under
201910/12Bowling Green20Toledo7Bowling GreenToledo -26.5Bowling Green65.0Under
201810/06Toledo52Bowling Green36ToledoToledo -23Bowling Green71.0Over
201711/15Bowling Green37Toledo66ToledoToledo -17.5Toledo66.0Over
201610/15Toledo42Bowling Green35ToledoToledo -24Bowling Green71.0Over
201511/17Bowling Green28Toledo44ToledoBowling Green -9Toledo72.5Under
201411/19Toledo27Bowling Green20ToledoToledo -6.5Toledo0
201310/26Bowling Green25Toledo28ToledoBowling Green -3Toledo0
201209/15Toledo27Bowling Green15Toledo
201110/15Bowling Green21Toledo28Toledo
201011/17Toledo33Bowling Green14Toledo
200911/27Bowling Green38Toledo24Bowling Green
200811/28Toledo10Bowling Green38Bowling Green
200711/23Bowling Green37Toledo10Bowling Green
200611/21Toledo31Bowling Green21Toledo
200511/22Bowling Green41Toledo44Toledo
200411/23Toledo49Bowling Green41Toledo
200311/29Bowling Green31Toledo23Bowling Green
200111/23Bowling Green56Toledo21Bowling Green
200011/21Toledo51Bowling Green17Toledo
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Bowling Green867 Overs
Toledo1663 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams14 - 104 - 82 - 62 - 2
Road Teams10 - 148 - 42 - 26 - 2

(#68) Toledo Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -1.41 #68
Offense Rating: 13.54 #72
Defense Rating: 14.95 #68
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.4 #71
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #77
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #63
Talent Rating: 678.00 #76
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #62
Expected Record: 9.6 - 2.4

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.55 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Avg Pass Success 44%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 40%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.87 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 42%
Good Pass Def Success 38%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Toledo Notes
(5/11) One of CFB's most exp'd OLs, 95% is returning
(5/2) WR Vandeross a weapon, have decent depth
(3/22) QB Gleason 2nd yr starter. Good, but TO prone
(3/22) RBs Walendzak back, Trayanum (UK) nice add
(3/22) OL 5/5 back. Poss best G5 line, best MAC
(3/22) Candle good HC, but drops bad games a lot
(3/22) Class of the MAC TY, OC/DC both vet's.
Toledo     Ratings Matchup     Bowling Green
Power #68
#102
Off #72
#109
Def #68
#103
Talent #76
#108
SP+ #71
#111
SP+ Off #77
#98
SP+ Def #63
#121

Previous Matchups
Bowling Green beat Toledo last year (41-26)
Toledo beat Bowling Green in 2023 (32-31)
Bowling Green beat Toledo in 2022 (42-35)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Doyt Perry Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: TOL | BGSU
Depth Chart: TOL | BGSU
Rosters: TOL | BGSU
(#102) Bowling Green Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -11.115 #102
Offense Rating: 7.36 #109
Defense Rating: 20.89 #103
Overall SP+ Rating: -13.7 #111
Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #98
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #121
Talent Rating: 490.00 #108
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #99
Expected Record: 5.2 - 6.8

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 43%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.84 PPO
Poor Run Success 41%
Good Pass Success 44%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 38%
Good in Scoring Position 3.47 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Great Pass Def Success 37%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position


Bowling Green Notes
(4/7) QB Drew Pyne added (Mizzu), likely QB1
(4/7) QB Lamson (Stan) left when Loeffler (Eagles)
(3/26) RB complete rebuild. Not many options
(3/26) WR rebuild, TE Fannin out. Some depth, 1 portal
(3/26) OL was bad LY, 3/5 back. 2 portals
(3/26) Def bad LY, replace most. 7 portal adds
(3/26) New HC George 24-22 @ E Tenn St
(3/26) Expect very active portal after spring ball


  
Toledo's OC Mike Hallett
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tucker Gleason20733562%24572277.3
John Alan Richter436764%497407.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Connor Walendzak12245713.732
Tucker Gleason8833063.835
Willie Shaw III4619034.113
Trayvon Rudolph (Tr)14179212.860
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Junior Vandeross73763410.573
Trayvon Rudolph (Tr)37403110.948
Thomas Zsiros12148112.325
Eric Holley1412609.040

View Toledo's Full Roster
Toledo's DC Vince Kehres
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Braden Awls673107
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren612104
Avery Smith5010013
Louce Julien (Tr)437411
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Anthony Dunn257420
Louce Julien (Tr)437411
Malachi Davis194210
Esean Carter162100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Avery Smith5010013
Braden Awls673107
Nasir Bowers352004

Bowling Green's OC Travis Partridge
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Pyne (Tr)498260%391334.8
Lucian Anderson III51242%32112.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lucian Anderson III196723.519
John Henderson450012.529
Drew Pyne (Tr)152101.410
Mar'Kel Porter41102.88
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Finn Hogan17175010.333
Arlis Boardingham (Tr)1812827.120
Jared Merk115015.015
Donovan Stephens112012.012

View Bowling Green's Full Roster
Bowling Green's DC Brandon Fisher
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Myles Bradley223220
Darius Lorfils221001
Evan Branch-Haynes192010
Kal-El Pascal171030
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Myles Bradley223220
Malik Moses10000
Josira Andrews10000
Isaac Hill10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Darius Lorfils221001
Myles Bradley223220
Josira Andrews10000