Akron at Toledo - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 27th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Toledo -21.5 (50.5) (-2100) Open: -21.0
Toledo 45 - Akron: 3 (Mid-American)

Zips (5 - 7) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Joe Moorhead (8 - 28)
Avg Score : 22 - 27 (17 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)

TOL is playing their 5th straight game
AKR is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Toledo -24.5 (SP+ TOL -20)
Projected Score: AKR: 13 - TOL: 37 (50)
TOL Win prob: 95% | Cover: 49%
AKR Travel: 116 miles

Rockets (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (72 - 40)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (46 - 8 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 8)

Matchup
Schedules
AKR Players
TOL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Akron's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Akron vs Wyoming	+8.5	49.5	L 0 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/6	Akron at Nebraska	+34.0	47.5	L 0 - 68	O	N
Sat 9/13	Akron at UAB	+12.5	58.5	L 28 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Akron vs Duquesne	-10.5	51.0	W 51 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/27	Akron at Toledo	+21.5	50.5	L 3 - 45	U	N
Sat 10/4	Akron vs Central Michigan	+7.0	47.5	W 28 - 22	O	Y
Sat 10/11	Akron vs Miami (OH)	+11.5	47.5	L 7 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/18	Akron at Ball State	-2.5	44.5	L 28 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/25	Akron at Buffalo	+10.0	48.5	W 24 - 16	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/4	Akron vs Massachusetts	-12.5	51.5	W 44 - 10	O	Y
Tue 11/11	Akron vs Kent State	-7.5	49.5	L 35 - 42	O	N
Tue 11/18	Akron at Bowling Green	+2.5	47.5	W 19 - 16	U	Y

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Akron's Schedule

Toledo's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Toledo at Kentucky	+10.0	48.5	L 16 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Toledo vs Western Kentucky	-8.5	57.5	W 45 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Toledo vs Morgan State	-33.5	54.5	W 60 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Toledo at Western Michigan	-13.5	48.5	L 13 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/27	Toledo vs Akron	-21.5	50.5	W 45 - 3	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Toledo at Bowling Green	-10.5	45.5	L 23 - 28	O	N
Sat 10/18	Toledo vs Kent State	-25.5	48.5	W 45 - 10	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Toledo at Washington State	-1.5	44.5	L 7 - 28	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/5	Toledo vs Northern Illinois	-14.5	42.5	W 42 - 3	O	Y
Wed 11/12	Toledo at Miami (OH)	-6.5	44.5	W 24 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Toledo vs Ball State	-29.5	45.5	W 38 - 9	O	N
Sat 11/29	Toledo at Central Michigan	-11.5	46.5	W 21 - 3	U	Y
Tue 12/23	Toledo vs Louisville	+12.5	44.5	L 22 - 27	O	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 10
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AKR	#122 (.07)	39% (114)	22.3	44% (64)	2.82 (103)	101	36% (118)	233	3.26 (120)	#91 (.21)	45% (101)	27.4	41% (55)	49% (126)	4.19 (108)	48.7	1.7	0.8
TOL	#111 (.11)	41% (95)	30.8	38% (120)	2.66 (121)	111	44% (46)	227	3.55 (99)	#20 (.09)	40% (43)	13.3	42% (60)	38% (35)	3.87 (79)	46.7	1.3	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AKR		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TOL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AKR Offense	12	22.3	17	38.8%	3.26	1.7	18	333	101	233	3.5	40%	59%	44%	36%	17%	.07
TOL Defense	13	13.3	7.7	39.8%	3.87	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	42%	38%	19%	.09

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AKR Defense	12	27.4	36.3	44.6%	4.19	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	41%	49%	14%	.21
TOL Offense	13	30.8	45.8	40.8%	3.55	1.3	18	339	111	227	3.5	46%	53%	38%	44%	16%	.11

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Akron	12	28:33	17.9	36%	31%	6.3	48.7	1.7	0.8	5	1.5	2	26.4
Toledo	13	25:06	18.4	36%	50%	5.4	46.7	1.3	1.3	6.2	2.1	2	31.4

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AKR Offense	12	40% (124)	44% (64)	28.5	100.5	3.5	11 (116)	.03 (114)	2.82 (103)	78% (34)	10% (77)	0.91 (93)
TOL Defense	13	52% (83)	42% (60)	-	-	-	-	.11 (66)	3.01 (69)	77% (89)	12% (31)	0.95 (48)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AKR Defense	12	54% (111)	41% (55)	-	-	-	-	.1 (57)	2.95 (58)	65% (24)	9% (95)	0.98 (66)
TOL Offense	13	46% (96)	38% (120)	31.5	111.3	3.5	12 (114)	-.04 (127)	2.66 (121)	57% (130)	10% (74)	0.83 (125)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AKR Offense	12	59% (13)	36% (118)	19.5	35	232.5	6.6	11.9	16 (87)	10 (63)	.12 (118)	1.6 (54)	35% (121)	25% (120)	.07 (133)	7% (91)	2.1 (36)
TOL Defense	13	48% (51)	38% (35)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.08 (11)	1.5 (29)	34% (38)	29% (39)	.22 (34)	7% (35)	2 (43)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AKR Defense	12	45% (23)	49% (126)	-	-	-	-	-	-	3 (132)	.37 (122)	1.5 (45)	28% (120)	36% (121)	.45 (114)	5% (90)	2.1 (71)
TOL Offense	13	53% (41)	44% (46)	19.2	31	227.2	7.3	11.8	26 (26)	7 (26)	.26 (67)	1.6 (61)	31% (65)	27% (108)	.18 (115)	6% (76)	2 (68)

Akron's Power Ratings
Akron's Power Rating: -16.31 #123
Akron's Offense Rating: 3.83 #122
Akron's Defense Rating: 20.14 #111
2025 Talent Rating: 472.00 #122
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #56
Akron's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Akron's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.9 #117
Akron's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.2 #123
Akron's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #87

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 571
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Akron: -16.31 Toledo: 9.5

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Akron: -13.9 Toledo: 6.0

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 9.5 #46
Toledo's Offense Rating: 15.43 #55
Toledo's Defense Rating: 7.43 #32
2025 Talent Rating: 718.00 #71
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #56
Toledo's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Toledo's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.0 #48
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #75
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.5 #21

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 571
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Akron Scoring
Offense: 22.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 36.3

Akron's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Toledo 37
Akron 13

Projected Total Points: 50

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 45.8
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 7.7

Toledo's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/27	Toledo	45	Akron	3	Toledo -21.5	Toledo	50.5	Under
2024	11/26	Akron	21	Toledo	14	Toledo -9.5	Akron	50.5	Under
2021	11/27	Toledo	49	Akron	14	Toledo -28.5	Toledo	57.5	Over
2017	12/02	Toledo	45	Akron	28	Toledo -20.5	Akron	61.5	Over
2017	10/21	Toledo	48	Akron	21	Toledo -15.5	Toledo	58.5	Over
2016	11/02	Akron	17	Toledo	48	Toledo -8	Toledo	72.0	Under
2013	11/29	Akron	31	Toledo	29	Toledo -8.5	Akron	0
2012	11/20	Toledo	35	Akron	23
2008	11/05	Akron	47	Toledo	30
2006	10/28	Toledo	35	Akron	20

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Toledo	7	4	3 Overs
Akron	3	3	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 1	5 - 2	3 - 1	2 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 9	2 - 5	1 - 2	1 - 3

(#123) AKR at (#46) TOL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	AKR	TOL
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#123	#46
SP+SP+	#117	#48
Perf GradeGrade	#91	#11
OffenseOff	#90	#41
DefenseDef	#59	#6
Spec TeamsST	#102	#14
TalentTal	#122	#71
Blue ChipsBC%	#56	#56

Akron Notes(11/4) Killed UMass, over 430 yds, Def played well
(10/31) Coming off only bye into Nov & last 3 MAC gms
(10/31) QB Ben Finley & RB Jordan Grant can play, OL Avg
(10/31) Could get to 6-6? UMass, Kent, BG to finish
(10/4) QB Finley missed Toledo game, ? for CMU game
(9/24) QB Finley playing better but this Off is terrible
(8/28) Offense somehow worse than anticipated, woof
(8/21) This is not an FBS roster. Bad team
(8/21) No bowl, no real bye, end on Nov 18th
(7/27) WR A Adams was leader WR in '23, injury probs
(5/29) QB Finley & WRs + DBs are only real assets
(5/29) RB awful LY. Limited options, 1 FCS portal add?
Akron Injury Report

Toledo Notes(12/11) HC Candle left for UConn? Very odd move
(12/11) Hired HC Mike Jacobs (Mercer). Pot. big upgrade
(11/13) Beat M-OH w/ QB2, not impressive. 3 TOs, 313 yds
(10/31) Killed by Wazzu in bad spot, Run Off awful 61 yds
(10/31) 8-4 best possible finish & must win @ Mia OH
(10/12) Blew another vs BG, OG'd BG by 200 yds & still lost
(10/12) Penalties, turnovers & awful coaching killing Toledo
(9/24) Gleason/Off disappointing. Penalty issues hurting
(9/20) Yearly awful L vs 0-3 WMU, Gleason 89 yds, 2 INT
(8/30) Run Off terrible, Run Def bad in L to UK
(8/20) CB A. Smith a true shutdown & NFL prospect
(7/28) OL 5/5 back. Best in MAC, top 3 in the G5
Toledo Injury Report

Akron on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	AKR Off	TOL Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#90	#6
SuccessSuc	#114	#43
ExplosiveExp	#66	#33
PPAPPA	#122	#20
PowerPwr	#122	#32
SP+SP+	#123	#21
Pts POPPO	#120	#79
HavocHav	#85	#28

Akron Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	AKR Off	TOL Def
Run GameRun	#112	#16
Run SuccessRSuc	#64	#60
Run ExplRExp	#93	#48
PPAExp	#114	#66
Run BlockR Blk	#35	-
OL YdsOLY	#103	#69
Stuff RateStuff	#100	#81
TackleTak	-	#41

Akron Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	AKR Off	TOL Def
Pass GamePass	#63	#13
Pass SuccessPSuc	#118	#35
Pass ExplPExl	#54	#29
PPAExp	#118	#11
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#119	#4
F7 HavocF7	#77	#31
DB HavocDB	#91	#35

Toledo on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	AKR Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#41	#59
SuccessSuc	#95	#101
ExplosiveExp	#83	#54
PPAPPA	#111	#91
PowerPwr	#55	#111
SP+SP+	#75	#87
Pts POPPO	#99	#108
HavocHav	#72	#96

Toledo Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	AKR Def
Run GameRun	#62	#64
Run SuccessRSuc	#120	#55
Run ExplRExp	#125	#66
PPAExp	#127	#57
Run BlockR Blk	#52	-
OL YdsOLY	#121	#58
Stuff RateStuff	#120	#37
TackleTak	-	#55

Toledo Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	AKR Def
Pass GamePass	#6	#87
Pass SuccessPSuc	#46	#126
Pass ExplPExl	#61	#45
PPAExp	#67	#122
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#97	#49
F7 HavocF7	#74	#95
DB HavocDB	#76	#90

Program Comparison
TOL 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

AKR 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Glass Bowl
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 5
Toledo -21.5 (50.5)
Toledo won vs Akron this year (45-3)

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Akron last year (45-3)
Akron beat Toledo in 2024 (21-14)

AKR's OC Taylor Housewright (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ben Finley	186	362	51%	2475	19	9	6.8
Michael Johnson Jr. (Tr)	12	23	52%	62	1	0	2.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Gant (Tr)	213	1032	6	4.8	36
Sean Patrick	69	274	1	4.0	25
Ben Finley	69	130	2	1.9	40
Marquese Williams	21	86	0	4.1	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Marcel Williams (Tr)	45	641	2	14.2	46
Israel Polk	33	525	8	15.9	75
Kyan Mason	33	481	5	14.6	62
Myles Walker	20	209	0	10.5	24

View Akron's Full Roster

AKR's DC Tim Tibesar (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Shammond Cooper	66	5	1	1	1
Gage Summers	54	7	2	1	0
DiMarco Johnson	53	1	0	0	3
Malcom DeWalt IV	51	3	0	1	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Julien Laventure	45	11	4	6	0
Bruno Dall	44	8	4	6	6
Cyrus Durham (Tr)	32	9	4	7	0
Ronald Hull	20	3	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Malcom DeWalt IV	51	3	0	1	8
Bruno Dall	44	8	4	6	6
Elijah Reed	44	2	1	0	4

TOL's OC Mike Hallett (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tucker Gleason	207	320	65%	2515	21	9	7.9
Kalieb Osborne	32	52	62%	427	3	0	8.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
DeaMonte Trayanum	182	1015	12	5.6	75
Kenji Christian (Tr)	105	528	4	5.0	37
Kalieb Osborne	51	282	2	5.5	33
Tucker Gleason	46	144	4	3.1	35

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Junior Vandeross	82	1008	11	12.3	71
Trayvon Rudolph (Tr)	39	435	2	11.2	58
Jacob Petersen (Tr)	25	335	3	13.4	28
DeaMonte Trayanum	21	212	2	10.1	57

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
K'Von Sherman	93	15	5	6	1
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren	77	6	1	3	6
Chris D'Appolonia	59	4	1	2	4
Andre Fuller	49	3	0	0	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Martez Poynter	43	10	7	9	0
Malachi Davis	35	10	6	8	1
K'Von Sherman	93	15	5	6	1
Jeremiah Peters	24	6	4	3	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Avery Smith	42	5	0	0	10
Andre Fuller	49	3	0	0	10
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren	77	6	1	3	6