Akron at Toledo - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 27th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Toledo -21.5 (50.5) (-2100) Open: -21.0
Toledo 45 - Akron: 3 (Mid-American)

Zips (3 - 6) (4 - 5 - 0)
Coach Joe Moorhead (8 - 28)
Avg Score : 19 - 29 (17 - 40 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.1 - 6.9 (#94)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)

TOL is playing their 5th straight game
AKR is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Toledo -24 (SP+ TOL -20)
Projected Score: AKR: 14 - TOL: 38 (52)
TOL Win prob: 95% | Cover: 49%
AKR Travel: 116 miles

Rockets (4 - 4) (5 - 3 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (72 - 40)
Avg Score : 32 - 16 (49 - 9 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 4.5 (#49)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 8)

Matchup
Schedules
AKR Players
TOL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Akron's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Akron vs Wyoming	+8.5	49.5	L 0 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/6	Akron at Nebraska	+34.0	47.5	L 0 - 68	O	N
Sat 9/13	Akron at UAB	+12.5	58.5	L 28 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Akron vs Duquesne	-10.5	51.0	W 51 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/27	Akron at Toledo	+21.5	50.5	L 3 - 45	U	N
Sat 10/4	Akron vs Central Michigan	+7.0	47.5	W 28 - 22	O	Y
Sat 10/11	Akron vs Miami (OH)	+11.5	47.5	L 7 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/18	Akron at Ball State	-2.5	44.5	L 28 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/25	Akron at Buffalo	+10.0	48.5	W 24 - 16	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/4	Akron vs Massachusetts	-10.0	49.5
Tue 11/11	Akron vs Kent State	-8.5
Tue 11/18	Akron at Bowling Green	+2.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Akron's Schedule

Toledo's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Toledo at Kentucky	+10.0	48.5	L 16 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Toledo vs Western Kentucky	-8.5	57.5	W 45 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Toledo vs Morgan State	-33.5	54.5	W 60 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Toledo at Western Michigan	-13.5	48.5	L 13 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/27	Toledo vs Akron	-21.5	50.5	W 45 - 3	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Toledo at Bowling Green	-10.5	45.5	L 23 - 28	O	N
Sat 10/18	Toledo vs Kent State	-25.5	48.5	W 45 - 10	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Toledo at Washington State	-1.5	44.5	L 7 - 28	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/5	Toledo vs Northern Illinois	-14.5	42.5
Wed 11/12	Toledo at Miami (OH)	-7.5
Sat 11/22	Toledo vs Ball State	-27
Sat 11/29	Toledo at Central Michigan	-13.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 10
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AKR	#123 (.04)	37% (121)	18.8	39% (108)	2.7 (85)	128	36% (121)	200	3 (126)	#71 (.14)	41% (59)	29	43% (74)	39% (45)	3.76 (76)	45	1.2	1.6
TOL	#64 (.18)	42% (71)	31.8	39% (106)	2.66 (95)	184	46% (36)	253	3.83 (74)	#3 (-.05)	35% (10)	16	41% (60)	28% (2)	3.7 (70)	69.4	1	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AKR	#122 (.07)	39% (114)		44% (64)	2.82 (103)	101	36% (118)	233	3.26 (120)	#91 (.21)	45% (101)		41% (55)	49% (126)	4.19 (108)	48.7	1.7	0.8
TOL	#111 (.11)	41% (95)		38% (120)	2.66 (121)	111	44% (46)	227	3.55 (99)	#20 (.09)	40% (43)		42% (60)	38% (35)	3.87 (79)	46.7	1.3	1.3

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AKR Offense	9	18.8	16.6	37.5%	3	1.2	18	328	128	200	3.7	46%	53%	39%	36%	18%	.04
TOL Defense	8	16	8.5	34.9%	3.7	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	55%	43%	41%	28%	19%	-.05

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AKR Defense	9	29	40.4	40.6%	3.76	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	43%	39%	17%	.14
TOL Offense	8	31.8	48.8	42.5%	3.83	1	23	437	184	253	4.9	49%	50%	39%	46%	12%	.18

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Akron	9	28:44	18.1	29%	45%	6	45	1.2	1.6	6.3	2.2	1	29.2
Toledo	8	31:29	22.5	39%	21%	7.9	69.4	1	1.6	6.1	1.8	2	30.2

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AKR Offense	9	46% (104)	39% (108)	34.6	127.9	3.7	5 (132)	-.04 (130)	2.7 (85)	72% (70)	10% (93)	0.8 (127)
TOL Defense	8	55% (120)	41% (60)	-	-	-	-	-.01 (18)	2.47 (36)	73% (77)	12% (16)	0.76 (5)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AKR Defense	9	51% (75)	43% (74)	-	-	-	-	.08 (69)	2.92 (93)	55% (6)	11% (45)	0.99 (82)
TOL Offense	8	49% (78)	39% (106)	37.9	184.1	4.9	14 (40)	.07 (89)	2.66 (95)	77% (35)	8% (41)	0.91 (89)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AKR Offense	9	53% (38)	36% (121)	17.1	32.8	199.8	6.1	11.7	14 (50)	7 (88)	.15 (108)	1.6 (37)	35% (119)	28% (92)	.16 (112)	8% (125)	2 (76)
TOL Defense	8	43% (14)	28% (2)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (55)	-.03 (3)	1.8 (130)	35% (21)	18% (1)	-.07 (1)	7% (48)	2.3 (130)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AKR Defense	9	49% (65)	39% (45)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (38)	.22 (65)	1.6 (102)	29% (113)	30% (74)	.35 (100)	7% (48)	2 (83)
TOL Offense	8	50% (55)	46% (36)	20.9	32	253.3	7.9	12.1	17 (22)	6 (60)	.29 (55)	1.5 (60)	32% (89)	27% (103)	.14 (117)	3% (9)	1.8 (121)

Akron's Power Ratings
Akron's Power Rating: -11.96 #120
Akron's Offense Rating: 1.41 #118
Akron's Defense Rating: 13.37 #106
2025 Talent Rating: 472.00 #122
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #56
Akron's 2025 Expected Record: 5.1 - 6.9
Akron's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.3 #126
Akron's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.2 #132
Akron's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.0 #97

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Akron: -11.96 Toledo: 9.295

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Akron: -17.3 Toledo: 2.3

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 9.295 #41
Toledo's Offense Rating: 9.97 #61
Toledo's Defense Rating: -1.32 #27
2025 Talent Rating: 718.00 #71
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #56
Toledo's 2025 Expected Record: 7.5 - 4.5
Toledo's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.3 #62
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #83
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #39

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Akron Scoring
Offense: 18.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.6
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense on Road: 40.4

Akron's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 6
Record vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Toledo 38
Akron 14

Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
Toledo 41
Akron 15

Total Points: 56

Based on Entire Season
Toledo 37
Akron 15

Total Points: 52

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 31.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 48.8
Defense: 16 PPG
Defense at Home: 8.5

Toledo's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/27	Toledo	45	Akron	3	Toledo -21.5	Toledo	50.5	Under
2024	11/26	Akron	21	Toledo	14	Toledo -9.5	Akron	50.5	Under
2021	11/27	Toledo	49	Akron	14	Toledo -28.5	Toledo	57.5	Over
2017	12/02	Toledo	45	Akron	28	Toledo -20.5	Akron	61.5	Over
2017	10/21	Toledo	48	Akron	21	Toledo -15.5	Toledo	58.5	Over
2016	11/02	Akron	17	Toledo	48	Toledo -8	Toledo	72.0	Under
2013	11/29	Akron	31	Toledo	29	Toledo -8.5	Akron	0
2012	11/20	Toledo	35	Akron	23
2008	11/05	Akron	47	Toledo	30
2006	10/28	Toledo	35	Akron	20

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Toledo	7	4	3 Overs
Akron	3	3	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 1	5 - 2	3 - 1	2 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 9	2 - 5	1 - 2	1 - 3

(#120) AKR at (#41) TOL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	AKR	TOL
Power RatePwr	#120	#41
SP+SP+	#126	#62
Perf GradeGrade	#105	#12
OffenseOff	#95	#35
DefenseDef	#87	#6
Spec TeamsST	#127	#67
TalentTal	#122	#71
Blue ChipsBC%	#56	#56

Akron Notes(10/31) Coming off only bye into Nov & last 3 MAC gms
(10/31) QB Ben Finley & RB Jordan Grant can play, OL Avg
(10/31) Could get to 6-6? UMass, Kent, BG to finish
(10/4) QB Finley missed Toledo game, ? for CMU game
(9/24) QB Finley playing better but this Off is terrible
(8/28) Offense somehow worse than anticipated, woof
(8/21) This is not an FBS roster. Bad team
(8/21) No bowl, no real bye, end on Nov 18th
(7/27) WR A Adams was leader WR in '23, injury probs
(5/29) QB Finley & WRs + DBs are only real assets
(5/29) RB awful LY. Limited options, 1 FCS portal add?
(5/29) WR complete rebuild, 4 portals. TE Newell good
Akron Injury Report

Toledo Notes(10/31) Killed by Wazzu in bad spot, Run Off awful 61 yds
(10/31) 8-4 best possible finish & must win @ Mia OH
(10/12) Blew another vs BG, OG'd BG by 200 yds & still lost
(10/12) Penalties, turnovers & awful coaching killing Toledo
(9/24) Gleason/Off disappointing. Penalty issues hurting
(9/20) Yearly awful L vs 0-3 WMU, Gleason 89 yds, 2 INT
(8/30) Run Off terrible, Run Def bad in L to UK
(8/20) CB A. Smith a true shutdown & NFL prospect
(7/28) OL 5/5 back. Best in MAC, top 3 in the G5
(7/28) Def added 9 portals, some key pieces at DE/LB
(7/28) Secondary should be really good, great CBs
(7/27) WR Vandeross a weapon, Rudolph (NIU) big add
Toledo Injury Report

Akron on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	AKR Off	TOL Def
Perf GradePerf	#95	#6
SuccessSuc	#121	#10
ExplosiveExp	#62	#9
PPAPPA	#123	#3
PowerPwr	#118	#27
SP+SP+	#132	#39
Pts POPPO	#126	#70
HavocHav	#114	#16

Akron Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	AKR Off	TOL Def
Run GameRun	#120	#16
Run SuccessRSuc	#108	#60
Run ExplRExp	#127	#5
PPAExp	#130	#18
Run BlockR Blk	#23	-
OL YdsOLY	#85	#36
Stuff RateStuff	#98	#30
TackleTak	-	#36

Akron Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	AKR Off	TOL Def
Pass GamePass	#73	#9
Pass SuccessPSuc	#121	#2
Pass ExplPExl	#37	#130
PPAExp	#108	#3
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#113	#27
F7 HavocF7	#93	#16
DB HavocDB	#125	#48

Toledo on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	AKR Def
Perf GradePerf	#35	#87
SuccessSuc	#71	#59
ExplosiveExp	#56	#94
PPAPPA	#64	#71
PowerPwr	#61	#106
SP+SP+	#83	#97
Pts POPPO	#74	#76
HavocHav	#11	#47

Toledo Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	AKR Def
Run GameRun	#59	#95
Run SuccessRSuc	#106	#74
Run ExplRExp	#89	#82
PPAExp	#89	#69
Run BlockR Blk	#53	-
OL YdsOLY	#95	#93
Stuff RateStuff	#56	#23
TackleTak	-	#79

Toledo Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	TOL Off	AKR Def
Pass GamePass	#4	#63
Pass SuccessPSuc	#36	#45
Pass ExplPExl	#60	#102
PPAExp	#55	#65
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#122	#83
F7 HavocF7	#41	#45
DB HavocDB	#9	#48

Program Comparison
TOL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

AKR 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Glass Bowl
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 5
Toledo -21.5 (50.5)
Toledo won vs Akron this year (45-3)

Previous Matchups
Akron beat Toledo last year (21-14)

AKR's OC Taylor Housewright (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ben Finley	133	257	52%	1678	13	7	6.5
Michael Johnson Jr. (Tr)	11	22	50%	39	1	0	1.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Gant (Tr)	141	697	3	4.9	36
Sean Patrick	62	255	1	4.1	25
Marquese Williams	21	86	0	4.1	14
Ben Finley	42	42	1	1.0	38

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kyan Mason	25	380	4	15.2	62
Israel Polk	26	360	5	13.8	75
Marcel Williams (Tr)	21	257	0	12.2	32
Myles Walker	20	209	0	10.5	24

View Akron's Full Roster

AKR's DC Tim Tibesar (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Shammond Cooper	53	4	0	1	1
DiMarco Johnson	48	1	0	0	3
Malcom DeWalt IV	40	2	0	0	7
Melvin Spriggs	38	5	3	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cyrus Durham (Tr)	27	6	4	5	0
Bruno Dall	32	7	4	6	5
Julien Laventure	31	8	3	6	0
Melvin Spriggs	38	5	3	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Malcom DeWalt IV	40	2	0	0	7
Bruno Dall	32	7	4	6	5
Elijah Reed	35	1	0	0	4

TOL's OC Mike Hallett (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tucker Gleason	140	217	65%	1721	13	5	7.9
John Alan Richter	17	25	68%	153	3	1	6.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
DeaMonte Trayanum	103	601	7	5.8	75
Kenji Christian (Tr)	73	379	2	5.2	37
Kalieb Osborne	16	126	2	7.9	21
Connor Walendzak	29	90	0	3.1	11

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Junior Vandeross	52	608	8	11.7	71
Trayvon Rudolph (Tr)	28	333	1	11.9	58
Jacob Petersen (Tr)	16	233	1	14.6	28
Eric Holley	13	166	1	12.8	26

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
K'Von Sherman	56	8	1	2	1
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren	50	3	1	0	1
Braden Awls	37	4	1	0	1
Chris D'Appolonia	34	3	0	1	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Malachi Davis	25	9	5	5	0
Martez Poynter	25	3	2	4	0
Jeremiah Peters	16	3	2	2	1
K'Von Sherman	56	8	1	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Andre Fuller	28	1	0	6
Avery Smith	21	3	0	6
Chris D'Appolonia	34	3	1	3