Bowling Green at Louisville - 2025 Matchup Preview
Bowling Green logo   Bowling Green Falcons at Louisville Cardinals  Louisville logo
Saturday, September 20th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Louisville -26.5 (50.5) (-4000)  Open: -27.5
Louisville 40 - Bowling Green: 17

 
Falcons (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Eddie George (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 21 - 24 (24 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)
LOU coming off BYE
BGSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Louisville -32  (SP+ LOU -25)

Projected Score: BGSU: 9 - LOU: 41 (50)
LOU Win prob: 97% | Cover: 51%
BGSU Travel: 247 miles
Cardinals (9 - 4) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (18 - 8)
Avg Score : 30 - 21 (34 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 6) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
 
Bowling Green's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Bowling Green vs Lafayette-21.053.0W 26 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Bowling Green at Cincinnati+21.546.5L 20 - 34OY
Sat 9/13 Bowling Green vs Liberty+6.051.5W 23 - 13UY
Sat 9/20 Bowling Green at Louisville+26.550.5L 17 - 40OY
Sat 9/27 Bowling Green at Ohio+7.549.5L 20 - 35ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Bowling Green vs Toledo+10.545.5W 28 - 23OY
Sat 10/18 Bowling Green vs Central Michigan-3.043.5L 6 - 27UN
Sat 10/25 Bowling Green at Kent State-7.547.5L 21 - 24UN
Sat 11/1 Bowling Green vs Buffalo-2.544.5L 3 - 28UN
Sat 11/8 Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan+3.049.5L 21 - 27UN
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/18 Bowling Green vs Akron-2.547.5L 16 - 19UN
Tue 11/25 Bowling Green at Massachusetts-14.044.5W 45 - 14OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Bowling Green's Schedule
Louisville's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Louisville vs Eastern Kentucky-37.557.5W 51 - 17ON
Fri 9/5 Louisville vs James Madison-15.057.0W 28 - 14UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Louisville vs Bowling Green-26.550.5W 40 - 17ON
Sat 9/27 Louisville at Pittsburgh-3.053.5W 34 - 27OY
Sat 10/4 Louisville vs Virginia-6.559.5L 27 - 30UN
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 Louisville at Miami+10.549.5W 24 - 21UY
Sat 10/25 Louisville vs Boston College-25.554.5W 38 - 24ON
Sat 11/1 Louisville at Virginia Tech-10.552.5W 28 - 16UY
Sat 11/8 Louisville vs California-18.548.5L 26 - 29ON
Fri 11/14 Louisville vs Clemson-1.550.5L 19 - 20UN
Sat 11/22 Louisville at SMU+4.049.5L 6 - 38UN
Sat 11/29 Louisville vs Kentucky-1.045.5W 41 - 0UY
Tue 12/23 Louisville vs Toledo-12.544.5W 27 - 22ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Louisville's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BGSU#53 (.21)43% (68)20.541% (99)3.01 (74)13444% (38)2073.84 (77)#43 (.13)38% (15)24.339% (29)37% (20)3.47 (32)41.10.81
LOU#15 (.31)46% (26)29.948% (20)3.09 (56)17345% (30)2514.27 (31)#73 (.18)40% (49)21.240% (44)40% (65)3.98 (87)46.10.81.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BGSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
LOU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BGSU Offense1320.52442.6%3.840.8183411342074.447%53%41%44%18%.21
LOU Defense1321.218.940.2%3.981.2 - - - - - 49%51%40%40%16%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BGSU Defense1324.32937.6%3.471 - - - - - 50%49%39%37%16%.13
LOU Offense1329.933.846.4%4.270.8204241732515.845%54%48%45%13%.31

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Bowling Green1329:2118.237%59%4.841.10.814.92.2229.2
Louisville1327:3920.140%40%5.946.10.81.25.82.2130.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BGSU Offense1347% (92)41% (99)30.6133.54.420 (67).14 (64)3.01 (74)78% (34)12% (118)1.08 (30)
LOU Defense1349% (50)40% (44) - - - - .08 (43)2.9 (51)65% (25)11% (43)0.99 (71)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BGSU Defense1350% (66)39% (29) - - - - .17 (94)3.28 (109)80% (113)10% (75)1.1 (116)
LOU Offense1345% (103)48% (20)29.9172.75.827 (30).2 (35)3.09 (56)65% (116)8% (27)1.04 (43)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BGSU Offense1353% (42)44% (38)18.728.4207.37.311.116 (87)6 (10).28 (53)1.4 (127)32% (86)32% (67).29 (85)5% (53)1.8 (128)
LOU Defense1351% (88)40% (65) - - - - - - 9 (76).27 (87)1.7 (111)31% (78)33% (99).26 (48)5% (94)1.8 (14)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BGSU Defense1349% (66)37% (20) - - - - - - 11 (52).11 (19)1.6 (65)34% (31)24% (3).15 (9)6% (69)2 (46)
LOU Offense1354% (32)45% (30)19.630.9251.58.112.823 (41)6 (10).41 (9)1.7 (34)30% (40)38% (8).5 (9)5% (40)2.1 (42)

Bowling Green's Power Ratings
Bowling Green's Power Rating: -22.24  #133
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: 0.09  #133
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: 22.33  #125
2025 Talent Rating: 528.00  #112
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Bowling Green's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Bowling Green's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.6  #113
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.4  #128
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.8  #83

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 571
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: -22.24   Louisville: 14.49

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: -12.6   Louisville: 12.4




Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 14.49  #36
Louisville's Offense Rating: 17.35  #43
Louisville's Defense Rating: 5.77  #27
2025 Talent Rating: 788.00  #57
Blue Chip Ratio: 7  #46
Louisville's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Louisville's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.4  #25
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6  #39
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.8  #29

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Bowling Green Scoring
Offense: 20.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 24
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 29

Bowling Green's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Louisville 41
Bowling Green 9


Projected Total Points: 50
Louisville Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.8
Defense: 21.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.9

Louisville's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 7 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 7 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/20Louisville40Bowling Green17Louisville -26.5Bowling Green50.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Louisville101 Overs
Bowling Green010 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#133) BGSU at (#36) LOU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBGSULOU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #133 #36
SP+SP+ #113 #25
Perf GradeGrade #102 #16
OffenseOff #104 #49
DefenseDef #88 #11
Spec TeamsST #77 #70
TalentTal #112 #57
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #46
Bowling Green Notes
(11/3) Fired OC Travis Partidge after Buffalo loss
(11/1) QB4 Hunter Najm (Fr) may have to start vs Buf
(10/31) QB1 Pyne ?, QB2 Anderson ?, QB3 May out
(10/31) Haven't played awful, W's over Liberty/Toledo
(10/31) Can still bowl, favs in 3 of final 4. Buf game big
(10/31) Run Def really good, Off just doesn't have weapons
(10/31) Falcons blew a 21-point lead to Kent, QBs awful
(10/12) Great W vs Toledo, only 226 yds & 2-12 on 3rd down
(10/12) Off still bottom 5 in CFB, zero playmakers/scheme
(9/25) LB D Pringle out for season, best Def player
(9/22) Held Liberty to 300 yds & forced 4 TOs. Huge W
(7/24) QB1 Drew Pyne (Miz) post spring add, starter
Bowling Green Injury Report
Louisville Notes
(11/21) QB Moss is ? for SMU game.
(11/16) Bad L vs Clemson, QB Moss culture comments??
(11/15) 3 losses as home favs in last 6 games
(11/4) RB1 I Brown out weeks, maybe SMU/UK (leg)
(11/1) Sluggish vs VT, Run Off 235 big w/ Moss off night
(10/17) Special teams all around one of the best in CFB
(10/17) Brohm special vs Miami, Run Off enough, Def great
(9/27) 17-0 comeback win at Pitt. Moss good, RBs/OL bad
(9/17) Starting LB S Clark likely out for season (leg)
(9/5) Good battle with JMU, Run Off needs work
(7/28) Def meh LY, added 17 via portal. DL & DB heavy
(7/17) DBs all new, starters come from 8 portals.
Louisville Injury Report
Bowling Green on Offense
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
BGSU OffLOU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #104 #11
SuccessSuc #68 #49
ExplosiveExp #75 #109
PPAPPA #53 #73
PowerPwr #133 #27
SP+SP+ #128 #29
Pts POPPO #77 #87
HavocHav #104 #62
Bowling Green Run Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
BGSU OffLOU Def
Run GameRun #101 #41
Run SuccessRSuc #99 #44
Run ExplRExp #30 #71
PPAExp #64 #43
Run BlockR Blk #49 -
OL YdsOLY #74 #51
Stuff RateStuff #124 #22
TackleTak -  #39
Bowling Green Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
BGSU OffLOU Def
Pass GamePass #131 #20
Pass SuccessPSuc #38 #65
Pass ExplPExl #127 #111
PPAExp #53 #87
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #86 #3
F7 HavocF7 #118 #43
DB HavocDB #53 #94
Louisville on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatLOU OffBGSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #49 #88
SuccessSuc #26 #15
ExplosiveExp #14 #98
PPAPPA #15 #43
PowerPwr #43 #125
SP+SP+ #39 #83
Pts POPPO #31 #32
HavocHav #23 #73
Louisville Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
LOU OffBGSU Def
Run GameRun #10 #89
Run SuccessRSuc #20 #29
Run ExplRExp #43 #116
PPAExp #35 #94
Run BlockR Blk #66 -
OL YdsOLY #56 #109
Stuff RateStuff #54 #103
TackleTak -  #62
Louisville Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatLOU OffBGSU Def
Pass GamePass #83 #103
Pass SuccessPSuc #30 #20
Pass ExplPExl #34 #65
PPAExp #9 #19
Pass Block/RushP Blk #69 #47
F7 HavocF7 #27 #75
DB HavocDB #40 #69
Program Comparison
LOU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

BGSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Papa John's Cardinal Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 4
Louisville -26.5 (50.5)
Louisville won vs Bowling Green this year (40-17)

Previous Matchups
Louisville beat Bowling Green last year (40-17)

  
BGSU's OC Greg Nosal (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Pyne (Tr)9415162%882455.8
Hunter Najm (Tr)336650%473547.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Austyn Dendy (Tr)10849354.624
Cameron Pettaway7236505.134
Chris McMillian8434234.133
Kaderris Roberts4821504.515
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jyrin Johnson (Tr)37466212.638
RJ Garcia II27283010.528
Finn Hogan13183014.124
Jacob Harris1918259.638

View Bowling Green's Full Roster

BGSU's DC Steve Morrison (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Gideon Lampron (Tr)11918341
Kal-El Pascal804005
Mark Cannon Jr. (Tr)576211
Jalen Mcclendon (Tr)561107
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Myles Bradley206570
Eriq George (Tr)265420
Gideon Lampron (Tr)11918341
David Afogho374361
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
JoJo Johnson (Tr)2200013
Jalen Mcclendon (Tr)561107
Kal-El Pascal804005

LOU's OC Brian Brohm (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Miller Moss (Tr)24438064%26791677.1
Deuce Adams152171%112005.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Isaac Brown10188478.878
Keyjuan Brown9670467.367
Braxton Jennings3720015.422
Shaun Boykins3719015.126
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Bell72917612.764
Caullin Lacy60635210.648
Dacari Collins (Tr)13219116.836
Jaleel Skinner2120429.733

View Louisville's Full Roster

LOU's DC Ron English (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Quinn958314
D'Angelo Hutchinson843025
JoJo Evans (Tr)643134
Clev Lubin (Tr)5913873
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Clev Lubin (Tr)5913873
Wesley Bailey (Tr)397650
Adonijah Green316440
TJ Quinn958314
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
D'Angelo Hutchinson843025
Rene Konga295225
Tayon Holloway424104