Kent State at Toledo - 2025 Matchup Preview
Kent State logo Kent State Golden Flashes at Toledo RocketsToledo logo
Saturday, October 18th 2025 (2:00 PM EDT)
Toledo -25.5 (48.5) (-4000)  Open: -23.5
Toledo 45 - Kent State: 10  (Mid-American)

 
Golden Flashes (5 - 7) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Kenni Burns (1 - 23)
Avg Score : 21 - 34 (18 - 43 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
Wind: 14.8 MPH
Our Line: Toledo -29  (SP+ TOL -25)

Projected Score: KENT: 11 - TOL: 40 (51)
TOL Win prob: 97% | Cover: 53%
KENT Travel: 124 miles
Rockets (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (72 - 40)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (46 - 8 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
 
Kent State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Kent State vs Merrimack-5.550.5W 21 - 17UN
Sat 9/6 Kent State at Texas Tech+48.560.0L 14 - 62OY
Sat 9/13 Kent State vs Buffalo+23.548.5L 28 - 31OY
Sat 9/20 Kent State at Florida State+44.556.5L 10 - 66ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Kent State at Oklahoma+46.553.5L 0 - 44UY
Sat 10/11 Kent State vs Massachusetts-1.549.5W 42 - 6UY
Sat 10/18 Kent State at Toledo+25.548.5L 10 - 45ON
Sat 10/25 Kent State vs Bowling Green+7.547.5W 24 - 21UY
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/5 Kent State at Ball State+3.048.5L 13 - 17UN
Tue 11/11 Kent State at Akron+7.549.5W 42 - 35OY
Wed 11/19 Kent State vs Central Michigan+7.550.5L 16 - 28UN
Fri 11/28 Kent State at Northern Illinois+5.045.0W 35 - 31OY

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Kent State's Schedule
Toledo's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Toledo at Kentucky+10.048.5L 16 - 24UY
Sat 9/6 Toledo vs Western Kentucky-8.557.5W 45 - 21OY
Sat 9/13 Toledo vs Morgan State-33.554.5W 60 - 0OY
Sat 9/20 Toledo at Western Michigan-13.548.5L 13 - 14UN
Sat 9/27 Toledo vs Akron-21.550.5W 45 - 3UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Toledo at Bowling Green-10.545.5L 23 - 28ON
Sat 10/18 Toledo vs Kent State-25.548.5W 45 - 10OY
Sat 10/25 Toledo at Washington State-1.544.5L 7 - 28UN
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/5 Toledo vs Northern Illinois-14.542.5W 42 - 3OY
Wed 11/12 Toledo at Miami (OH)-6.544.5W 24 - 3UY
Sat 11/22 Toledo vs Ball State-29.545.5W 38 - 9ON
Sat 11/29 Toledo at Central Michigan-11.546.5W 21 - 3UY
Tue 12/23 Toledo vs Louisville+12.544.5L 22 - 27OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
KENT#131 (.01)30% (134)21.333% (132)2.57 (128)7829% (134)1552.89 (130)#133 (.35)50% (131)33.650% (123)51% (130)4.34 (115)35.71.70.9
TOL#111 (.11)41% (95)30.838% (120)2.66 (121)11144% (46)2273.55 (99)#20 (.09)40% (43)13.342% (60)38% (35)3.87 (79)46.71.31.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
KENT0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TOL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
KENT Offense1221.317.730.5%2.891.713233781552.447%51%33%29%28%.01
TOL Defense1313.37.739.8%3.871.3 - - - - - 52%48%42%38%19%.09
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
KENT Defense1233.642.950.1%4.340.9 - - - - - 55%45%50%51%12%.35
TOL Offense1330.845.840.8%3.551.3183391112273.546%53%38%44%16%.11

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Kent State1226:5212.919%38%4.835.71.70.94.71.5027.2
Toledo1325:0618.436%50%5.446.71.31.36.22.1231.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
KENT Offense1247% (91)33% (132)32.377.52.43 (134)-.07 (132)2.57 (128)61% (123)19% (134)0.95 (72)
TOL Defense1352% (83)42% (60) - - - - .11 (66)3.01 (69)77% (89)12% (31)0.95 (48)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
KENT Defense1255% (113)50% (123) - - - - .3 (132)3.58 (133)81% (115)8% (111)1.13 (122)
TOL Offense1346% (96)38% (120)31.5111.33.512 (114)-.04 (127)2.66 (121)57% (130)10% (74)0.83 (125)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
KENT Offense1251% (54)29% (134)11.624.5155.46.313.418 (68)13 (103).14 (109)2.1 (2)41% (134)19% (134).11 (132)8% (128)2.7 (1)
TOL Defense1348% (51)38% (35) - - - - - - 10 (66).08 (11)1.5 (29)34% (38)29% (39).22 (34)7% (35)2 (43)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
KENT Defense1245% (25)51% (130) - - - - - - 4 (125).41 (126)1.5 (23)28% (124)38% (127).42 (109)4% (127)1.8 (15)
TOL Offense1353% (41)44% (46)19.231227.27.311.826 (26)7 (26).26 (67)1.6 (61)31% (65)27% (108).18 (115)6% (76)2 (68)

Kent State's Power Ratings
Kent State's Power Rating: -19.68  #129
Kent State's Offense Rating: 2.18  #128
Kent State's Defense Rating: 21.86  #120
2025 Talent Rating: 516.00  #115
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Kent State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Kent State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -19.3  #130
Kent State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.0  #125
Kent State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.9  #120

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 571
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Kent State: -19.68   Toledo: 9.5

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Kent State: -19.3   Toledo: 6.0




Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 9.5  #46
Toledo's Offense Rating: 15.43  #55
Toledo's Defense Rating: 7.43  #32
2025 Talent Rating: 718.00  #71
Blue Chip Ratio: 4  #56
Toledo's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Toledo's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.0  #48
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.8  #75
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.5  #21

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 571
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Kent State Scoring
Offense: 21.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.7
Defense: 33.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 42.9

Kent State's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Toledo 40
Kent State 11


Projected Total Points: 51
Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 45.8
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 7.7

Toledo's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/18Toledo45Kent State10Toledo -25.5Toledo48.5Over
202210/15Toledo52Kent State31Toledo -7Toledo62.5Over
201911/05Toledo35Kent State33Toledo -5.5Kent State62.5Over
201811/15Kent State34Toledo56Toledo -11.5Toledo57.5Over
201510/10Toledo38Kent State7Toledo -15.5Toledo47.0Under
201411/04Kent State20Toledo30Toledo -13Kent State0
201010/16Toledo34Kent State21
200610/14Kent State40Toledo14
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Toledo744 Overs
Kent State121 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 24 - 23 - 11 - 1
Road Teams2 - 62 - 41 - 11 - 3

(#129) KENT at (#46) TOL
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatKENTTOL
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #129 #46
SP+SP+ #130 #48
Perf GradeGrade #128 #11
OffenseOff #119 #41
DefenseDef #126 #6
Spec TeamsST #116 #14
TalentTal #115 #71
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #56
Kent State Notes
(11/28) Beat NIU to finish 4-3. Incredible job by Mark Carney
(11/5) Coaching malpractice by Carney vs Ball St
(11/5) Blew game vs Ball St. Coaching & stupidity
(10/31) Huge W over BG, but BG had no one at QB
(10/31) WR Cade Wolford a name to know, 26.3 ypc, 6 TD
(10/31) QB Deshields can play, just so bad on OL/DL
(10/30) Mark Carney interim no more, permanent HC
(9/13) Off much improved vs Buffalo. Impressive
(9/10) Two QB system w/ Deshields and Montes. Meh
(9/6) Physically does not look like FBS level ball
(8/30) QB DeShields/Montes meh, Run Off awful
(4/11) HC Burns fired, OC Carney Int HC for '25
Kent State Injury Report
Toledo Notes
(12/11) HC Candle left for UConn? Very odd move
(12/11) Hired HC Mike Jacobs (Mercer). Pot. big upgrade
(11/13) Beat M-OH w/ QB2, not impressive. 3 TOs, 313 yds
(10/31) Killed by Wazzu in bad spot, Run Off awful 61 yds
(10/31) 8-4 best possible finish & must win @ Mia OH
(10/12) Blew another vs BG, OG'd BG by 200 yds & still lost
(10/12) Penalties, turnovers & awful coaching killing Toledo
(9/24) Gleason/Off disappointing. Penalty issues hurting
(9/20) Yearly awful L vs 0-3 WMU, Gleason 89 yds, 2 INT
(8/30) Run Off terrible, Run Def bad in L to UK
(8/20) CB A. Smith a true shutdown & NFL prospect
(7/28) OL 5/5 back. Best in MAC, top 3 in the G5
Toledo Injury Report
Kent State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
KENT OffTOL Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #119 #6
SuccessSuc #134 #43
ExplosiveExp #1 #33
PPAPPA #131 #20
PowerPwr #128 #32
SP+SP+ #125 #21
Pts POPPO #130 #79
HavocHav #134 #28
Kent State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
KENT OffTOL Def
Run GameRun #128 #16
Run SuccessRSuc #132 #60
Run ExplRExp #72 #48
PPAExp #132 #66
Run BlockR Blk #96 -
OL YdsOLY #128 #69
Stuff RateStuff #126 #81
TackleTak -  #41
Kent State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
KENT OffTOL Def
Pass GamePass #108 #13
Pass SuccessPSuc #134 #35
Pass ExplPExl #2 #29
PPAExp #109 #11
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #136 #4
F7 HavocF7 #134 #31
DB HavocDB #128 #35
Toledo on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatTOL OffKENT Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #41 #126
SuccessSuc #95 #131
ExplosiveExp #83 #79
PPAPPA #111 #133
PowerPwr #55 #120
SP+SP+ #75 #120
Pts POPPO #99 #115
HavocHav #72 #127
Toledo Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
TOL OffKENT Def
Run GameRun #62 #122
Run SuccessRSuc #120 #123
Run ExplRExp #125 #122
PPAExp #127 #132
Run BlockR Blk #52 -
OL YdsOLY #121 #133
Stuff RateStuff #120 #133
TackleTak -  #98
Toledo Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatTOL OffKENT Def
Pass GamePass #6 #132
Pass SuccessPSuc #46 #130
Pass ExplPExl #61 #23
PPAExp #67 #126
Pass Block/RushP Blk #97 #58
F7 HavocF7 #74 #111
DB HavocDB #76 #127
Program Comparison
TOL 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

KENT 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Glass Bowl
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 80° - Wind: 15 mph
Rematch from Week 8
Toledo -25.5 (48.5)
Toledo won vs Kent State this year (45-10)

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Kent State last year (45-10)

  
KENT's OC Mark Carney (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dru Deshields13624057%20301838.5
CJ Montes (Tr)101953%140117.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Gavin Garcia14664734.445
Jordan Nubin (Tr)7925313.225
Jahzae Kimbrough399702.512
Cade Wolford129718.131
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cade Wolford19509726.879
Dashawn Martin33507415.475
Wayne Harris35383110.942
Ardell Banks12205217.138

View Kent State's Full Roster

KENT's DC Kody Morgan (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mason Woods9411231
CJ Young898323
Joel Cordoba662011
Jaire Rawlison522106
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamond Mathis (Tr)288663
CJ Young898323
Jelani Davis (Tr)244340
Mason Woods9411231
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaire Rawlison522106
Terrell Miller301006
Jamond Mathis (Tr)288663

TOL's OC Mike Hallett (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tucker Gleason20732065%25152197.9
Kalieb Osborne325262%427308.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
DeaMonte Trayanum1821015125.675
Kenji Christian (Tr)10552845.037
Kalieb Osborne5128225.533
Tucker Gleason4614443.135
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Junior Vandeross8210081112.371
Trayvon Rudolph (Tr)39435211.258
Jacob Petersen (Tr)25335313.428
DeaMonte Trayanum21212210.157

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
K'Von Sherman9315561
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren776136
Chris D'Appolonia594124
Andre Fuller4930010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Martez Poynter4310790
Malachi Davis3510681
K'Von Sherman9315561
Jeremiah Peters246432
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Avery Smith4250010
Andre Fuller4930010
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren776136