James Madison at Louisville - 2025 Matchup Preview
James Madison logo James Madison Dukes at Louisville CardinalsLouisville logo
Friday, September 5th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Louisville -15.0 (57.0) (-700)  Open: -15.0 | 57.5
Louisville 28 - James Madison: 14

 
Dukes (12 - 2) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Bob Chesney (9 - 4)
Avg Score : 37 - 18 (34 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 12.1 - 1.9 (#2)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 8)
Light Rain Predicted
LOU 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Louisville -3  (SP+ JMU -3)

Projected Score: JMU: 27 - LOU: 30 (58)
LOU Win prob: 85% | Cover: 46%
JMU Travel: 374 miles
Cardinals (9 - 4) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (18 - 8)
Avg Score : 30 - 21 (34 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 5) (Bad: 2)
 
James Madison's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 James Madison vs Weber State-26.554.5W 45 - 10OY
Fri 9/5 James Madison at Louisville+15.057.0L 14 - 28UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 James Madison at Liberty-7.546.5W 31 - 13UY
Sat 9/27 James Madison vs Georgia Southern-14.554.5W 35 - 10UY
Sat 10/4 James Madison at Georgia State-19.552.5W 14 - 7UN
Sat 10/11 James Madison vs Louisiana-18.544.5W 24 - 14UN
Sat 10/18 James Madison vs Old Dominion-3.047.5W 63 - 27OY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/28 James Madison at Texas State-7.555.5W 52 - 20OY
Sat 11/8 James Madison at Marshall-13.553.5W 35 - 23ON
Sat 11/15 James Madison vs App State-21.053.5W 58 - 10OY
Sat 11/22 James Madison vs Washington State-15.044.5W 24 - 20UN
Sat 11/29 James Madison at Coastal Carolina-24.054.5W 59 - 10OY
Fri 12/5 James Madison vs Troy-24.547.5W 31 - 14UN
Sat 12/20 James Madison at Oregon+22.547.5L 34 - 51OY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for James Madison's Schedule
Louisville's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Louisville vs Eastern Kentucky-37.557.5W 51 - 17ON
Fri 9/5 Louisville vs James Madison-15.057.0W 28 - 14UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Louisville vs Bowling Green-26.550.5W 40 - 17ON
Sat 9/27 Louisville at Pittsburgh-3.053.5W 34 - 27OY
Sat 10/4 Louisville vs Virginia-6.559.5L 27 - 30UN
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 Louisville at Miami+10.549.5W 24 - 21UY
Sat 10/25 Louisville vs Boston College-25.554.5W 38 - 24ON
Sat 11/1 Louisville at Virginia Tech-10.552.5W 28 - 16UY
Sat 11/8 Louisville vs California-18.548.5L 26 - 29ON
Fri 11/14 Louisville vs Clemson-1.550.5L 19 - 20UN
Sat 11/22 Louisville at SMU+4.049.5L 6 - 38UN
Sat 11/29 Louisville vs Kentucky-1.045.5W 41 - 0UY
Tue 12/23 Louisville vs Toledo-12.544.5W 27 - 22ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 5, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 5, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Louisville's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
JMU#37 (.22)45% (38)37.148% (20)3.17 (29)23042% (61)1883.98 (43)#10 (.04)31% (2)18.433% (6)30% (3)3.41 (50)64.41.11.1
LOU#82 (.16)45% (45)29.950% (13)2.84 (85)15041% (75)2093.54 (84)#15 (.05)37% (16)21.238% (18)37% (20)3.38 (45)59.51.21.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
JMU#88 (.16)44% (61)47% (29)3.28 (30)19440% (87)2163.93 (66)#4 (.03)34% (1)34% (5)34% (3)3.64 (53)54.80.72.5
LOU#15 (.31)46% (26)48% (20)3.09 (56)17345% (30)2514.27 (31)#73 (.18)40% (49)40% (44)40% (65)3.98 (87)46.10.81.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
JMU Offense1437.134.145%3.981.1214192301885.757%41%48%42%13%.22
LOU Defense1321.218.936.7%3.381.5 - - - - - 46%53%38%37%17%.05
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
JMU Defense1418.421.731.5%3.411.1 - - - - - 47%52%33%30%20%.04
LOU Offense1329.933.844.6%3.541.2183591502095.144%53%50%41%17%.16

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
James Madison1431:3920.947%41%6.664.41.11.15.92.5332.6
Louisville1328:0117.837%55%6.559.51.21.55.22.1232.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
JMU Offense1457% (18)48% (20)40.2230.45.736 (16).21 (25)3.17 (29)77% (35)7% (18)1.04 (43)
LOU Defense1346% (17)38% (18) - - - - .07 (52)2.74 (42)75% (99)11% (39)0.95 (66)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
JMU Defense1447% (31)33% (6) - - - - (17)2.35 (6)57% (4)11% (26)1.07 (117)
LOU Offense1344% (112)50% (13)29.5150.25.123 (70).23 (17)2.84 (85)65% (111)10% (98)1.08 (27)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
JMU Offense1441% (118)42% (61)14.424188.17.813.124 (61)10 (34).29 (50)1.7 (22)31% (69)31% (64).26 (89)6% (73)2 (67)
LOU Defense1353% (120)37% (20) - - - - - - 14 (6).06 (6)1.4 (8)34% (25)24% (10).11 (9)7% (37)1.9 (23)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
JMU Defense1452% (105)30% (3) - - - - - - 12 (38).1 (17)1.8 (130)39% (3)24% (12).13 (12)9% (5)1.9 (41)
LOU Offense1353% (34)41% (75)19.430.3208.86.910.816 (75)9 (60).13 (119)1.4 (130)28% (21)27% (104).14 (123)6% (89)1.9 (106)

James Madison's Power Ratings
James Madison's Power Rating: 9.92  #43
James Madison's Offense Rating: 9.35  #66
James Madison's Defense Rating: -0.57  #29
2025 Talent Rating: 482.00  #120
Blue Chip Ratio: 2%  #79
James Madison's 2025 Expected Record: 12.1 - 1.9
James Madison's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.5  #24
James Madison's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.5  #25
James Madison's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.7  #25

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
James Madison: 9.92   Louisville: 15.075

SP+ Ratings Matchup
James Madison: 14.5   Louisville: 11.7




Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 15.075  #35
Louisville's Offense Rating: 11.32  #57
Louisville's Defense Rating: -2.13  #25
2025 Talent Rating: 788.00  #57
Blue Chip Ratio: 7  #46
Louisville's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Louisville's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.7  #30
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.8  #43
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5  #28

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


James Madison Scoring
Offense: 37.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.1
Defense: 18.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.7

James Madison's 2025 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Louisville 30
James Madison 27


Total Points: 58

Based on Last 4 Games
Louisville 40
James Madison 22

Total Points: 62

Based on Entire Season
James Madison 28
Louisville 26

Total Points: 54
Louisville Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.8
Defense: 21.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.9

Louisville's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 7 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 7 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/05Louisville28James Madison14Louisville -15.0James Madison57.0Under
202211/05Louisville34James Madison10Louisville -6.5Louisville53.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Louisville210 Overs
James Madison012 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 01 - 11 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 21 - 10 - 01 - 1

(#43) JMU at (#35) LOU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatJMULOU
Power RatePwr #43 #35
SP+SP+ #24 #30
Perf GradeGrade #7 #26
OffenseOff #16 #55
DefenseDef #5 #12
Spec TeamsST #59 #102
TalentTal #120 #57
Blue ChipsBC% #79 #46
James Madison Notes
(12/6) Sun Belt champs, beat Troy. Could be CFP bound?
(12/5) Hiring Billy Napier (UF) after Chesney took UCLA job
(12/4) Only its 4th FBS season & could make CFP. Incredible
(12/3) HC Bob Chesney has taken UCLA job, will coach '25
(10/29) Just murdering SBC, very much a G5 CFP threat
(10/22) Leads CFB in Defensive Success Rate, Off Good
(10/21) Off shredded ODU for 624, 311 rushing, 12-16 on 3rd
(9/20) Good W @ Liberty, Def incredible. Run Off good
(9/5) QB Barnett holds too long, not pocket aware
(9/5) Def front 7 dominant. Shut down Louisville
(9/2) QB Barnett started opener, Run Off mauled FCS
(8/25) QB Barnett cleared to play, is a top SBC QB
James Madison Injury Report
Louisville Notes
(11/21) QB Moss is ? for SMU game.
(11/16) Bad L vs Clemson, QB Moss culture comments??
(11/15) 3 losses as home favs in last 6 games
(11/4) RB1 I Brown out weeks, maybe SMU/UK (leg)
(11/1) Sluggish vs VT, Run Off 235 big w/ Moss off night
(10/17) Special teams all around one of the best in CFB
(10/17) Brohm special vs Miami, Run Off enough, Def great
(9/27) 17-0 comeback win at Pitt. Moss good, RBs/OL bad
(9/17) Starting LB S Clark likely out for season (leg)
(9/5) Good battle with JMU, Run Off needs work
(7/28) Def meh LY, added 17 via portal. DL & DB heavy
(7/17) DBs all new, starters come from 8 portals.
Louisville Injury Report
James Madison on Offense
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
JMU OffLOU Def
Perf GradePerf #16 #12
SuccessSuc #38 #16
ExplosiveExp #42 #24
PPAPPA #37 #15
PowerPwr #66 #25
SP+SP+ #25 #28
Pts POPPO #43 #45
HavocHav #34 #35
James Madison Run Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
JMU OffLOU Def
Run GameRun #8 #59
Run SuccessRSuc #20 #18
Run ExplRExp #43 #66
PPAExp #25 #52
Run BlockR Blk #16 -
OL YdsOLY #29 #42
Stuff RateStuff #65 #52
TackleTak -  #60
James Madison Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
JMU OffLOU Def
Pass GamePass #61 #22
Pass SuccessPSuc #61 #20
Pass ExplPExl #22 #8
PPAExp #50 #6
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #41 #3
F7 HavocF7 #18 #39
DB HavocDB #73 #37
Louisville on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatLOU OffJMU Def
Perf GradePerf #55 #5
SuccessSuc #45 #2
ExplosiveExp #87 #132
PPAPPA #82 #10
PowerPwr #57 #29
SP+SP+ #43 #25
Pts POPPO #84 #50
HavocHav #94 #7
Louisville Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
LOU OffJMU Def
Run GameRun #8 #8
Run SuccessRSuc #13 #6
Run ExplRExp #27 #117
PPAExp #17 #17
Run BlockR Blk #61 -
OL YdsOLY #85 #6
Stuff RateStuff #123 #7
TackleTak -  #21
Louisville Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatLOU OffJMU Def
Pass GamePass #98 #2
Pass SuccessPSuc #75 #3
Pass ExplPExl #130 #130
PPAExp #119 #17
Pass Block/RushP Blk #99 #26
F7 HavocF7 #98 #26
DB HavocDB #89 #5
Program Comparison
LOU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

JMU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Papa John's Cardinal Stadium
Conditions: Light Rain
Temp: 75° - Wind: 10 mph
Rematch from Week 2
Louisville -15.0 (57.0)
Louisville won vs James Madison this year (28-14)

Previous Matchups
Louisville beat James Madison in 2022 (34-10)

  
JMU's OC Dean Kennedy (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Alonza Barnett21637058%28062387.6
Matthew Sluka (Tr)81173%100329.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Wayne Knight207137396.673
Alonza Barnett127589154.658
Jordan Fuller (Tr)8241555.126
Jobi Malary4334948.173
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Landon Ellis (Tr)36624517.362
Nick DeGennaro (Tr)28500517.976
Wayne Knight4039719.957
Jaylan Sanchez (Tr)30396113.280

View James Madison's Full Roster

JMU's DC Colin Hitschler (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trent Hendrick967323
Tyler Brown715105
Jacob Thomas653237
Drew Spinogatti517163
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sahir West4614774
Xavier Holmes (Tr)317664
Aiden Gobaira (Tr)338530
Trent Hendrick967323
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
DJ Barksdale3630112
Justin Eaglin350008
Elijah Culp (Tr)444017

LOU's OC Brian Brohm (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Miller Moss (Tr)24438064%26791677.1
Deuce Adams152171%112005.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Isaac Brown10188478.878
Keyjuan Brown9670467.367
Braxton Jennings3720015.422
Shaun Boykins3719015.126
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Bell72917612.764
Caullin Lacy60635210.648
Dacari Collins (Tr)13219116.836
Jaleel Skinner2120429.733

View Louisville's Full Roster

LOU's DC Ron English (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Quinn958314
D'Angelo Hutchinson843025
JoJo Evans (Tr)643134
Clev Lubin (Tr)5913873
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Clev Lubin (Tr)5913873
Wesley Bailey (Tr)397650
Adonijah Green316440
TJ Quinn958314
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rene Konga295225
D'Angelo Hutchinson843025
TJ Quinn958314