Louisville vs USC Game Matchup
Louisville logo Louisville Cardinals vs USC TrojansUSC logo
Wednesday, December 27th 2023 (8:00 PM EST)
Louisville -4.5 (58.0) (-320)  Open: -8.0 | 57.0
USC 42 - Louisville: 28  (DIRECTV Holiday Bowl)

 
Cardinals (10 - 4) (6 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (3 - 0)
Avg Score : 37 - 24 (31 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 4.5 (#19)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Louisville -1.5   (SP+ LOU -3)
Projected Score: LOU: 30 - USC: 28 (57)
LOU Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
LOU Travel: 1829 miles, 3 hrs ahead
Trojans (8 - 5) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (14 - 3)
Avg Score : 30 - 24 (37 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 4.9 (#43)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Louisville's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1 Louisville vs Georgia Tech-7.049.5W 39 - 34ON
Thu 9/7 Louisville vs Murray State-43.555.5W 56 - 0OY
Sat 9/16 Louisville vs Indiana-10.051.0W 21 - 14UN
Sat 9/23 Louisville vs Boston College-14.053.0W 56 - 28OY
Fri 9/29 Louisville at NC State-3.556.5W 13 - 10UN
Sat 10/7 Louisville vs Notre Dame+6.553.0W 33 - 20UY
Sat 10/14 Louisville at Pittsburgh-7.544.5L 21 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Louisville vs Duke-5.047.0W 23 - 0UY
Sat 11/4 Louisville vs Virginia Tech-9.548.5W 34 - 3UY
Thu 11/9 Louisville vs Virginia-20.549.5W 31 - 24ON
Sat 11/18 Louisville at Miami+1.546.5W 38 - 31OY
Sat 11/25 Louisville vs Kentucky-7.547.5L 31 - 38ON
Sat 12/2 Louisville vs Florida State+3.551.0L 6 - 16UN
Wed 12/27 Louisville vs USC-4.558.0L 28 - 42ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Louisville's Schedule
USC's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26 USC vs San José State-31.566.0W 56 - 28ON
Sat 9/2 USC vs Nevada-37.563.5W 66 - 14OY
Sat 9/9 USC vs Stanford-28.570.5W 56 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/23 USC at Arizona State-34.562.0W 42 - 28ON
Sat 9/30 USC at Colorado-22.074.5W 48 - 41ON
Sat 10/7 USC vs Arizona-21.069.5W 43 - 41ON
Sat 10/14 USC at Notre Dame+3.061.0L 20 - 48ON
Sat 10/21 USC vs Utah-7.551.5L 32 - 34ON
Sat 10/28 USC at California-10.567.5W 50 - 49ON
Sat 11/4 USC vs Washington+3.076.0L 42 - 52ON
Sat 11/11 USC at Oregon+12.578.5L 27 - 36UY
Sat 11/18 USC vs UCLA-6.065.5L 20 - 38UN
Wed 12/27 USC vs Louisville+4.558.0W 42 - 28OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for USC's Schedule

Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LOU.1941%36.543%3.1820141%2063.74.0740%24.143%38%2.85661.82.6
USC.451%30.253%3.5217150%3354.68.2948%24.153%46%4.54580.52.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LOU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
USC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LOU Offense1336.531.341.3%3.741.820407201206555%44%43%41%15%.19
USC Defense1424.123.848.4%4.542.1 - - - - - 44%55%53%46%17%.29
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LOU Defense1324.125.240.3%2.852.6 - - - - - 51%48%43%38%20%.07
USC Offense1430.236.851.3%4.680.5265061713355.144%56%53%50%11%.4

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Louisville1329:5420.338%40%6.9661.82.67.23.7330
USC1431:5425.754%68%6.3580.52.15.52.9328.2
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LOU Offense1355%43%39.9201525.213.1869%10%1.13
USC Defense1444%53% - - - - .363.4578%10%1.14
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LOU Defense1351%43% - - - - .042.9760%14%0.92
USC Offense1444%53%33.8171.15.130.33.5283%7%0.97

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LOU Offense1344%41%16.828.3205.57.312.31312.221.634%31%.375%2.1
USC Defense1455%46% - - - - - - 19.271.529%36%.427%2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LOU Defense1348%38% - - - - - - 15.161.633%26%.146%2.1
USC Offense1456%50%24.636.7335.39.113.7435.481.628%36%.494%2.2

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 10.32 #21
Louisville's Offense Rating: 19.18 #44
Louisville's Defense Rating: 2.79 #16
2023 Talent Rating: 706.00 #46
Blue Chip Ratio: 14% #38
Louisville's 2023 Expected Record: 9.50 - 4.50
Louisville's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #24
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.7 #40
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 758.94
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 10.32   USC: 8.855

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 10.8   USC: 7.9




USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 8.855 #23
USC's Offense Rating: 26.88 #7
USC's Defense Rating: 14.89 #119
2023 Talent Rating: 780.00 #33
Blue Chip Ratio: 54 #14
USC's 2023 Expected Record: 8.10 - 4.90
USC's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.9 #38
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 42.6 #3
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #109

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 821.44
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78


Louisville Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 31.3
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.2

Louisville's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Louisville 30
USC 28

Projected Total Points: 57
USC Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.8
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 23.8

USC's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202312/27USC42Louisville28USCLouisville -4.5USC58.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
USC111 Overs
Louisville000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 00 - 01 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0

Louisville Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2023Holiday Bowl Louisville vs USC-4.558.0L 28 - 42
2022Fenway Bowl Louisville vs Cincinnati-2.538.5W 24 - 7
2021Responder Bowl Louisville vs Air Force+1.055.0L 28 - 31
2019City Bowl Louisville vs Mississippi State+5.064.5W 38 - 28
2017N/A Louisville vs Mississippi State-6.562.0L 27 - 31
USC Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2023Holiday Bowl USC vs Louisville+4.558.0W 42 - 28
2022Cotton Bowl USC vs Tulane-1.567.0L 45 - 46
2019Holiday Bowl USC vs Iowa-1.554.5L 24 - 49
2017N/A USC vs Ohio State+9.565.5L 7 - 24
  
(#21) Louisville Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 10.32 #21
Offense Rating: 19.18 #44
Defense Rating: 2.79 #16
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #24
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.7 #40
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26
Talent Rating: 706.00 #46
Blue Chip Ratio: 14% #38
Expected Record: 9.50 - 4.50

Team Profile






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Louisville has played in 5 Bowls in the last 5 years (3 - 2)
Louisville has played in 20 Bowls since 2000 (10 - 10)
Louisville     Ratings Matchup     USC
Power #21
#23
Off #44
#7
Def #16
#119
Talent #46
#33
SP+ #24
#38
SP+ Off #40
#3
SP+ Def #26
#109

Rematch from Week 1
Louisville 4.5 (58.0)
USC won vs Louisville this year (42-28)

Previous Matchups
USC beat Louisville in 2023 (42-28)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Petco Park
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 61° - Wind: 7 mph


Team Information
Injuries: LOU | USC
Depth Chart: LOU | USC
Rosters: LOU | USC
(#23) USC Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 8.855 #23
Offense Rating: 26.88 #7
Defense Rating: 14.89 #119
Overall SP+ Rating: 7.9 #38
Offense SP+ Rating: 42.6 #3
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #109
Talent Rating: 780.00 #33
Blue Chip Ratio: 54 #14
Expected Record: 8.10 - 4.90

Team Profile






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USC has played in 4 Bowls in the last 5 years (2 - 2)
USC has played in 19 Bowls since 2000 (12 - 7)


  
Louisville's OC Brian Brohm
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Duane Martin31615.314
Kevin Coleman Jr.41102.89
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kevin Coleman Jr.69844512.280
Ahmari Huggins-Bruce17230013.558
William Fowles229014.519
Duane Martin21708.511

View Louisville's Full Roster
Louisville's DC Ron English
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
M.J. Griffin632102
Ryheem Craig496210
Josh Minkins452004
Ashton Gillotte43105100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ashton Gillotte43105100
Ramon Puryear344360
Ryheem Craig496210
Kameron Wilson103220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Quincy Riley333009
Josh Minkins452004
M.J. Griffin632102

USC's OC Josh Henson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Malachi Nelson121771%128017.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Darwin Barlow96206.914
Raleek Brown94204.714
Mario Williams21206.013
Malachi Nelson2-110-5.50
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Mario Williams48831417.368
Dorian Singer (Tr)53702113.240
Jude Wolfe1816128.932
Darwin Barlow331010.317

View USC's Full Roster
USC's DC Alex Grinch
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mason Cobb (Tr)723003
Jaylin Smith584002
Domani Jackson512017
Chris Thompson Jr.445110
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Romello Height347340
Korey Foreman235241
Stanley Ta'ufo'ou304200
Jamil Muhammad (Tr)272130
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Domani Jackson512017
Ceyair Wright391116
DeCarlos Nicholson270005