Louisville at USC - 2023 Matchup Preview

Wednesday, December 27th 2023 (8:00 PM EST)
Louisville -4.5 (58.0) (-320) Open: -8.0 | 57.0
USC 42 - Louisville: 28 (DIRECTV Holiday Bowl)

Cardinals (10 - 4) (6 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (3 - 0)
Avg Score : 30 - 21 (23 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 4.5 (#19)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Louisville -1.5 (SP+ LOU -3)
Projected Score: LOU: 29 - USC: 28 (57)
LOU Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
LOU Travel: 1799 miles, 3 hrs ahead

Trojans (8 - 5) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (14 - 3)
Avg Score : 36 - 23 (43 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 4.9 (#43)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
LOU Players
USC Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Louisville's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/1	Louisville vs Georgia Tech	-7.0	49.5	W 39 - 34	O	N
Thu 9/7	Louisville vs Murray State	-43.5	55.5	W 56 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Louisville vs Indiana	-10.0	51.0	W 21 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/23	Louisville vs Boston College	-14.0	53.0	W 56 - 28	O	Y
Fri 9/29	Louisville at NC State	-3.5	56.5	W 13 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/7	Louisville vs Notre Dame	+6.5	53.0	W 33 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Louisville at Pittsburgh	-7.5	44.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Louisville vs Duke	-5.0	47.0	W 23 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Louisville vs Virginia Tech	-9.5	48.5	W 34 - 3	U	Y
Thu 11/9	Louisville vs Virginia	-20.5	49.5	W 31 - 24	O	N
Sat 11/18	Louisville at Miami	+1.5	46.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Louisville vs Kentucky	-7.5	47.5	L 31 - 38	O	N
Sat 12/2	Louisville vs Florida State	+3.5	51.0	L 6 - 16	U	N
Wed 12/27	Louisville vs USC	-4.5	58.0	L 28 - 42	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Louisville's Schedule

USC's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	USC vs San José State	-31.5	66.0	W 56 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/2	USC vs Nevada	-37.5	63.5	W 66 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/9	USC vs Stanford	-28.5	70.5	W 56 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/23	USC at Arizona State	-34.5	62.0	W 42 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/30	USC at Colorado	-22.0	74.5	W 48 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/7	USC vs Arizona	-21.0	69.5	W 43 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/14	USC at Notre Dame	+3.0	61.0	L 20 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/21	USC vs Utah	-7.5	51.5	L 32 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/28	USC at California	-10.5	67.5	W 50 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/4	USC vs Washington	+3.0	76.0	L 42 - 52	O	N
Sat 11/11	USC at Oregon	+12.5	78.5	L 27 - 36	U	Y
Sat 11/18	USC vs UCLA	-6.0	65.5	L 20 - 38	U	N
Wed 12/27	USC vs Louisville	+4.5	58.0	W 42 - 28	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LOU	.19	41%	29.9	43%	3.18	201	41%	206	3.74	.07	40%	21.2	43%	38%	2.85	66	1.8	2.6
USC	.4	51%	35.8	53%	3.52	171	50%	335	4.68	.29	48%	23	53%	46%	4.54	58	0.5	2.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LOU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
USC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LOU Offense	13	29.9	23	41.3%	3.74	1.8	20	407	201	206	5	55%	44%	43%	41%	15%	.19
USC Defense	14	23	17.9	48.4%	4.54	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	44%	55%	53%	46%	17%	.29

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LOU Defense	13	21.2	25.5	40.3%	2.85	2.6	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	43%	38%	20%	.07
USC Offense	14	35.8	43	51.3%	4.68	0.5	26	506	171	335	5.1	44%	56%	53%	50%	11%	.4

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Louisville	13	29:54	20.3	38%	40%	6.9	66	1.8	2.6	7.2	3.7	3	30
USC	14	31:54	25.7	54%	68%	6.3	58	0.5	2.1	5.5	2.9	3	28.2

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LOU Offense	13	55%	43%	39.9	201	5	25	.21	3.18	69%	10%	1.13
USC Defense	14	44%	53%	-	-	-	-	.36	3.45	78%	10%	1.14

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LOU Defense	13	51%	43%	-	-	-	-	.04	2.97	60%	14%	0.92
USC Offense	14	44%	53%	33.8	171.1	5.1	30	.3	3.52	83%	7%	0.97

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LOU Offense	13	44%	41%	16.8	28.3	205.5	7.3	12.3	13	12	.22	1.6	34%	31%	.37	5%	2.1
USC Defense	14	55%	46%	-	-	-	-	-	-	19	.27	1.5	29%	36%	.42	7%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LOU Defense	13	48%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	15	.16	1.6	33%	26%	.14	6%	2.1
USC Offense	14	56%	50%	24.6	36.7	335.3	9.1	13.7	43	5	.48	1.6	28%	36%	.49	4%	2.2

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 10.32 #21
Louisville's Offense Rating: 19.18 #44
Louisville's Defense Rating: 2.79 #16
2023 Talent Rating: 744.16 #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 14% #38
Louisville's 2023 Expected Record: 9.50 - 4.50
Louisville's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #24
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.7 #40
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 10.32 USC: 8.855

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 10.8 USC: 7.9

USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 8.855 #23
USC's Offense Rating: 26.88 #7
USC's Defense Rating: 14.89 #119
2023 Talent Rating: 896.41 #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 54 #14
USC's 2023 Expected Record: 8.10 - 4.90
USC's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.9 #38
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 42.6 #3
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #109

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Louisville Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 23
Defense: 21.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.5

Louisville's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Louisville 29
USC 28

Projected Total Points: 57

USC Scoring
Offense: 35.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 43
Defense: 23 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.9

USC's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 3
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	12/27	USC	42	Louisville	28	Louisville -4.5	USC	58.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
USC	1	1	1 Overs
Louisville	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0

Louisville Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Holiday Bowl	Louisville vs USC	-4.5	58.0	L 28 - 42
2022	Fenway Bowl	Louisville vs Cincinnati	-2.5	38.5	W 24 - 7
2021	Responder Bowl	Louisville vs Air Force	+1.0	55.0	L 28 - 31
2019	City Bowl	Louisville vs Mississippi State	+5.0	64.5	W 38 - 28
2017	N/A	Louisville vs Mississippi State	-6.5	62.0	L 27 - 31

USC Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Holiday Bowl	USC vs Louisville	+4.5	58.0	W 42 - 28
2022	Cotton Bowl	USC vs Tulane	-1.5	67.0	L 45 - 46
2019	Holiday Bowl	USC vs Iowa	-1.5	54.5	L 24 - 49
2017	Cotton Bowl	USC vs Ohio State	+9.5	65.5	L 7 - 24

(#21) LOU at (#23) USC

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	LOU	USC
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#21	#23
SP+SP+	#24	#38
Perf GradeGrade	#35	#29
OffenseOff	#41	#16
DefenseDef	#23	#80
Spec TeamsST	#98	#86
TalentTal	#29	#8
Blue ChipsBC%	#38	#14

Louisville Injury Report

USC Injury Report

Louisville on Offense


CategoryCat	LOU Off	USC Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#41	#80
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#44	#119
SP+SP+	#40	#109
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Louisville Run Game


CategoryCat	LOU Off	USC Def
Run GameRun	#13	#84
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#88	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#77

Louisville Pass Game


CategoryCat	LOU Off	USC Def
Pass GamePass	#39	#90
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#33	#26
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

USC on Offense


CategoryCat	USC Off	LOU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#16	#23
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#7	#16
SP+SP+	#3	#26
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

USC Run Game


CategoryCat	USC Off	LOU Def
Run GameRun	#10	#33
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#63	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#50

USC Pass Game


CategoryCat	USC Off	LOU Def
Pass GamePass	#9	#62
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#20	#20
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
USC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

LOU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'23 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Petco Park
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Louisville 4.5 (58.0)
USC won vs Louisville this year (42-28)

Previous Matchups
USC beat Louisville in 2023 (42-28)

LOU's OC Brian Brohm (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jack Plummer (Tr)	256	395	65%	3204	21	12	8.1
Brock Domann	5	5	100%	44	0	0	8.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jawhar Jordan	181	1128	13	6.2	74
Isaac Guerendo (Tr)	132	810	11	6.1	73
Maurice Turner	62	284	1	4.6	41
Keyjuan Brown	11	65	1	5.9	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jamari Thrash (Tr)	63	858	6	13.6	85
Chris Bell	29	407	2	14.0	48
Kevin Coleman Jr.	24	332	2	13.8	58
Ahmari Huggins-Bruce	20	312	4	15.6	55

View Louisville's Full Roster

LOU's DC Ron English (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
TJ Quinn	87	2	1	5	2
Devin Neal (Tr)	72	3	0	0	6
Cam'Ron Kelly	64	5	0	1	2
Jaylin Alderman	57	7	2	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ashton Gillotte	41	12	10	6	0
Mason Reiger	20	6	5	3	2
Ramon Puryear	19	6	4	3	0
Jared Dawson	13	4	3	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Quincy Riley	49	2	10
Jarvis Brownlee	30	1	6
Devin Neal (Tr)	72	3	6

USC's OC Josh Henson (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Caleb Williams	266	388	69%	3633	30	5	9.4
Miller Moss	46	65	71%	681	7	1	10.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
MarShawn Lloyd (Tr)	116	820	9	7.1	56
Austin Jones	85	477	7	5.6	37
Quinten Joyner	18	125	1	6.9	47
Caleb Williams	99	115	11	1.2	46

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tahj Washington	59	1062	8	18.0	76
Brenden Rice	45	791	12	17.6	75
Duce Robinson	16	351	2	21.9	71
Zachariah Branch	31	320	2	10.3	36

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC Alex Grinch (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mason Cobb (Tr)	85	7	0	0	1
Jaylin Smith	69	5	1	1	1
Calen Bullock	58	0	0	0	5
Bryson Shaw	52	3	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jamil Muhammad (Tr)	46	10	6	4	1
Solomon Byrd	44	8	5	2	1
Romello Height	18	5	4	1	0
Braylan Shelby	17	4	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Christian Roland-Wallace (Tr)	34	3	0	9
Calen Bullock	58	0	0	5
Eric Gentry	43	3	1	3