Toledo at Western Michigan - 2025 Matchup Preview
Toledo logo Toledo Rockets at Western Michigan BroncosWestern Michigan logo
Saturday, September 20th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Toledo -13.5 (48.5) (-500)  Open: -11.5
Western Michigan 14 - Toledo: 13  (Mid-American)

 
Rockets (5 - 4) (6 - 3 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (72 - 40)
Avg Score : 33 - 15 (15 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 4.5 (#49)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 9)
WMU is playing their 4th straight game
TOL is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Toledo -10  (SP+ TOL -8)

Projected Score: TOL: 28 - WMU: 18 (47)
TOL Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
TOL Travel: 111 miles
Broncos (5 - 4) (6 - 3 - 0)
Coach Lance Taylor (10 - 14)
Avg Score : 22 - 19 (31 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.8 - 5.2 (#61)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
 
Toledo's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Toledo at Kentucky+10.048.5L 16 - 24UY
Sat 9/6 Toledo vs Western Kentucky-8.557.5W 45 - 21OY
Sat 9/13 Toledo vs Morgan State-33.554.5W 60 - 0OY
Sat 9/20 Toledo at Western Michigan-13.548.5L 13 - 14UN
Sat 9/27 Toledo vs Akron-21.550.5W 45 - 3UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Toledo at Bowling Green-10.545.5L 23 - 28ON
Sat 10/18 Toledo vs Kent State-25.548.5W 45 - 10OY
Sat 10/25 Toledo at Washington State-1.544.5L 7 - 28UN
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/5 Toledo vs Northern Illinois-14.542.5W 42 - 3OY
Wed 11/12 Toledo at Miami (OH)-7.5
Sat 11/22 Toledo vs Ball State-27
Sat 11/29 Toledo at Central Michigan-13.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule
Western Michigan's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Western Michigan at Michigan State+18.549.5L 6 - 23UY
Sat 9/6 Western Michigan vs North Texas+12.056.0L 30 - 33OY
Sat 9/13 Western Michigan at Illinois+27.550.5L 0 - 38UN
Sat 9/20 Western Michigan vs Toledo+13.548.5W 14 - 13UY
Sat 9/27 Western Michigan vs Rhode Island-7.545.5W 47 - 14OY
Sat 10/4 Western Michigan at Massachusetts-12.546.5W 21 - 3UY
Sat 10/11 Western Michigan vs Ball State-9.543.5W 42 - 0UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Western Michigan at Miami (OH)+2.540.5L 17 - 26ON
Sat 11/1 Western Michigan vs Central Michigan-6.043.5W 24 - 21ON
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/11 Western Michigan vs Ohio-1
Tue 11/18 Western Michigan at Northern Illinois-2
Tue 11/25 Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan-5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Western Michigan's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL#64 (.18)42% (71)32.939% (106)2.66 (95)16446% (36)2253.83 (74)#3 (-.05)35% (10)14.641% (60)28% (2)3.7 (70)61.70.91.4
WMU#117 (.07)42% (80)22.347% (39)2.94 (50)15836% (123)1613.37 (107)#22 (.05)39% (38)1940% (45)39% (46)3.47 (48)38.71.31.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL#111 (.11)41% (95)38% (120)2.66 (121)11144% (46)2273.55 (99)#20 (.09)40% (43)42% (60)38% (35)3.87 (79)46.71.31.3
WMU#43 (.24)45% (33)45% (59)3.05 (62)18446% (27)1874.11 (49)#122 (.29)49% (128)48% (115)51% (132)4.38 (119)39.211.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Offense932.914.842.5%3.830.9203891642254.949%50%39%46%12%.18
WMU Defense91916.239%3.471.4 - - - - - 50%49%40%39%17%.05
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Defense914.623.534.9%3.71.4 - - - - - 55%43%41%28%19%-.05
WMU Offense922.331.442%3.371.3193191581613.959%41%47%36%15%.07

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Toledo927:592039%21%761.70.91.45.41.6230.2
Western Michigan932:0718.942%45%4.638.71.31.46.23.2130.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Offense949% (78)39% (106)33.7163.74.914 (40).07 (89)2.66 (95)77% (35)8% (41)0.91 (89)
WMU Defense950% (66)40% (45) - - - - .05 (44)2.52 (44)76% (103)12% (26)0.99 (78)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Defense955% (120)41% (60) - - - - -.01 (18)2.47 (36)73% (77)12% (16)0.76 (5)
WMU Offense959% (15)47% (39)41.1158.33.916 (49).09 (73)2.94 (50)73% (63)11% (111)0.85 (119)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Offense950% (55)46% (36)18.628.4225.17.912.117 (22)6 (60).29 (55)1.5 (60)32% (89)27% (103).14 (117)3% (9)1.8 (121)
WMU Defense949% (63)39% (46) - - - - - - 6 (55).08 (14)1.4 (11)33% (43)28% (50).1 (8)6% (89)1.7 (5)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Defense943% (14)28% (2) - - - - - - 7 (55)-.03 (3)1.8 (130)35% (21)18% (1)-.07 (1)7% (48)2.3 (130)
WMU Offense941% (120)36% (123)1626.1161.16.210.18 (114)4 (34).07 (125)1.4 (124)31% (68)23% (130).14 (118)4% (11)1.9 (104)

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 11.29  #41
Toledo's Offense Rating: 9.97  #61
Toledo's Defense Rating: -1.32  #27
2025 Talent Rating: 718.00  #71
Blue Chip Ratio: 4%  #56
Toledo's 2025 Expected Record: 7.5 - 4.5
Toledo's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.3  #62
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.4  #83
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.8  #39

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 11.29   Western Michigan: -3.39

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 2.3   Western Michigan: -5.9




Western Michigan's Power Ratings
Western Michigan's Power Rating: -3.39  #95
Western Michigan's Offense Rating: 0.53  #122
Western Michigan's Defense Rating: 6.41  #65
2025 Talent Rating: 558.00  #106
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #88
Western Michigan's 2025 Expected Record: 6.8 - 5.2
Western Michigan's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.9  #94
Western Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.3  #111
Western Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.8  #67

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Toledo Scoring
Offense: 32.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 14.8
Defense: 14.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.5

Toledo's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Toledo 28
Western Michigan 18


Total Points: 47

Based on Last 4 Games
Toledo 26
Western Michigan 21

Total Points: 46

Based on Entire Season
Western Michigan 23
Toledo 21

Total Points: 44
Western Michigan Scoring
Offense: 22.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.4
Defense: 19 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.2

Western Michigan's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/20Western Michigan14Toledo13Toledo -13.5Western Michigan48.5Under
202309/23Toledo49Western Michigan31Toledo -21.5Western Michigan52.5Over
202211/25Western Michigan20Toledo14Toledo -8.5Western Michigan50.5Under
202110/23Toledo34Western Michigan15Western Michigan -1.5Toledo54.5Under
202011/11Western Michigan41Toledo38Western Michigan -1.5Western Michigan58.5Over
201910/05Toledo31Western Michigan24Toledo -1.5Toledo74.0Under
201810/25Western Michigan24Toledo51Western Michigan -4Toledo69.0Over
201711/24Toledo37Western Michigan10Toledo -12Toledo62.0Under
201611/25Western Michigan55Toledo35Western Michigan -9.5Western Michigan71.5Over
201511/27Toledo30Western Michigan35Toledo -7Western Michigan58.0Over
201410/04Western Michigan19Toledo20Toledo -10Western Michigan0
201310/05Toledo47Western Michigan20Toledo -19Toledo0
201209/29Western Michigan17Toledo37
201111/08Toledo66Western Michigan63
201009/18Western Michigan24Toledo37
200910/10Toledo26Western Michigan58
200811/15Western Michigan27Toledo17
200709/29Toledo28Western Michigan42
200609/09Western Michigan31Toledo10
200509/10Toledo56Western Michigan23
200410/09Western Michigan33Toledo59
200311/22Toledo34Western Michigan17
200111/06Toledo41Western Michigan35
200009/22Western Michigan21Toledo14
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Western Michigan1075 Overs
Toledo1455 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams16 - 89 - 35 - 34 - 0
Road Teams8 - 163 - 90 - 43 - 5

(#41) TOL at (#95) WMU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTOLWMU
Power RatePwr #41 #95
SP+SP+ #62 #94
Perf GradeGrade #12 #97
OffenseOff #35 #98
DefenseDef #6 #84
Spec TeamsST #67 #69
TalentTal #71 #106
Blue ChipsBC% #56 #88
Toledo Notes
(10/31) Killed by Wazzu in bad spot, Run Off awful 61 yds
(10/31) 8-4 best possible finish & must win @ Mia OH
(10/12) Blew another vs BG, OG'd BG by 200 yds & still lost
(10/12) Penalties, turnovers & awful coaching killing Toledo
(9/24) Gleason/Off disappointing. Penalty issues hurting
(9/20) Yearly awful L vs 0-3 WMU, Gleason 89 yds, 2 INT
(8/30) Run Off terrible, Run Def bad in L to UK
(8/20) CB A. Smith a true shutdown & NFL prospect
(7/28) OL 5/5 back. Best in MAC, top 3 in the G5
(7/28) Def added 9 portals, some key pieces at DE/LB
(7/28) Secondary should be really good, great CBs
(7/27) WR Vandeross a weapon, Rudolph (NIU) big add
Toledo Injury Report
Western Michigan Notes
(10/31) QB Lowry a weapon, JAG arm, only real rush threat
(10/31) Def meh vs Mia OH, all 400+ but good on 3rd D's
(10/22) DL is one of best in CFB, best in G5 statistically
(10/8) Def has improved a lot, red zone defense especially
(9/20) Off is terrible, esp Run Off. QB Lowry meh
(9/20) Huge win vs Toledo. Def held 5-18 3rd down, 3 TO
(8/30) QB B Jones starter, B Lowry is QB2, both bad
(8/30) Run game alarming bad vs Mich St, 1.2 ypc
(3/26) QB Lowry was backup LY, limited options
(3/26) RB Buckley was co starter LY, limited depth
(3/26) WR rebuild, 3 portal adds. Have depth
(3/26) OL good LY, 2/5 back. 3 P4 portal adds
Western Michigan Injury Report
Toledo on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
TOL OffWMU Def
Perf GradePerf #35 #84
SuccessSuc #71 #38
ExplosiveExp #56 #42
PPAPPA #64 #22
PowerPwr #61 #65
SP+SP+ #83 #67
Pts POPPO #74 #48
HavocHav #11 #47
Toledo Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
TOL OffWMU Def
Run GameRun #59 #87
Run SuccessRSuc #106 #45
Run ExplRExp #89 #78
PPAExp #89 #44
Run BlockR Blk #53 -
OL YdsOLY #95 #44
Stuff RateStuff #56 #41
TackleTak -  #77
Toledo Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
TOL OffWMU Def
Pass GamePass #4 #117
Pass SuccessPSuc #36 #46
Pass ExplPExl #60 #11
PPAExp #55 #14
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #122 #11
F7 HavocF7 #41 #26
DB HavocDB #9 #89
Western Michigan on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCatWMU OffTOL Def
Perf GradePerf #98 #6
SuccessSuc #80 #10
ExplosiveExp #135 #9
PPAPPA #117 #3
PowerPwr #122 #27
SP+SP+ #111 #39
Pts POPPO #107 #70
HavocHav #61 #16
Western Michigan Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
WMU OffTOL Def
Run GameRun #77 #16
Run SuccessRSuc #39 #60
Run ExplRExp #119 #5
PPAExp #73 #18
Run BlockR Blk #104 -
OL YdsOLY #50 #36
Stuff RateStuff #69 #30
TackleTak -  #36
Western Michigan Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCatWMU OffTOL Def
Pass GamePass #100 #9
Pass SuccessPSuc #123 #2
Pass ExplPExl #124 #130
PPAExp #125 #3
Pass Block/RushP Blk #111 #27
F7 HavocF7 #111 #16
DB HavocDB #11 #48
Program Comparison
WMU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average G5

TOL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Waldo Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 79° - Wind: 8 mph
Rematch from Week 4
Toledo 13.5 (48.5)
Western Michigan won vs Toledo this year (14-13)

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Western Michigan in 2023 (49-31)
Western Michigan beat Toledo in 2022 (20-14)

  
TOL's OC Mike Hallett (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tucker Gleason16524867%20301558.2
John Alan Richter172568%153316.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
DeaMonte Trayanum11463785.675
Kenji Christian (Tr)7841235.337
Kalieb Osborne2015227.621
Connor Walendzak319803.211
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Junior Vandeross58705912.271
Trayvon Rudolph (Tr)30341111.458
Jacob Petersen (Tr)18246113.728
Kenji Christian (Tr)14178112.742

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
K'Von Sherman649231
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren553112
Chris D'Appolonia433013
Braden Awls414101
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Malachi Davis259550
K'Von Sherman649231
Martez Poynter253250
Jeremiah Peters173222
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Andre Fuller301007
Avery Smith213006
Chris D'Appolonia433013

WMU's OC Walt Bell (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Broc Lowry12519365%1314716.8
Brady Jones194048%136133.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Broc Lowry12559184.737
Jalen Buckley9835123.626
Devin Miles5721423.825
Ofa Mataele3918134.622
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tailique Williams (Tr)32403212.643
Baylin Brooks (Tr)20276013.842
Aveion Chenault17225213.245
Blake Bosma1715509.124

View Western Michigan's Full Roster

WMU's DC Chris O'Leary (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sefa Saipaia Jr.546210
James Camden443210
Jarvarius Sims (Tr)402104
Tate Hallock402131
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nadame Tucker (Tr)38151081
Rodney McGraw275440
Marcel Tyler225201
James Camden443210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Joshua Franklin303104
Jarvarius Sims (Tr)402104
John Peters130003