Louisville at Miami - 2025 Matchup Preview
Louisville logo Louisville Cardinals at Miami Hurricanes(#4)Miami logo
Friday, October 17th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Hard Rock Stadium - Miami Gardens, FL  (ACC)

 
Cardinals (2 - 0) (0 - 2 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (18 - 8)
Avg Score : 40 - 16 (40 - 16 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.1 - 2.9 (#20)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 6) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
LOU coming off BYE
MIAMI coming off BYE
Our Line: Miami -12   (SP+ MIAMI -6)

Projected Score: LOU: 21 - MIAMI: 33 (54)
MIAMI Win prob: 79% | Cover: 45%
LOU Travel: 905 miles
Hurricanes (3 - 0) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (22 - 15)
Avg Score : 40 - 13 (40 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.8 - 1.2 (#2)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 5) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
 
Louisville's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Louisville vs Eastern Kentucky-37.557.5W 51 - 17ON
Fri 9/5 Louisville vs James Madison-15.057.0W 28 - 14UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Louisville vs Bowling Green-26.551.5
Sat 9/27 Louisville at Pittsburgh-3.5
Sat 10/4 Louisville vs Virginia-10.5
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 Louisville at Miami+12
Sat 10/25 Louisville vs Boston College-11.5
Sat 11/1 Louisville at Virginia Tech-19
Sat 11/8 Louisville vs California-10.5
Fri 11/14 Louisville vs Clemson-3
Sat 11/22 Louisville at SMU-3
Sat 11/29 Louisville vs Kentucky-10

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Louisville's Schedule
Miami's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 8/31 Miami vs Notre Dame+2.553.5W 27 - 24UY
Sat 9/6 Miami vs Bethune-Cookman-54.50.0W 45 - 3ON
Sat 9/13 Miami vs South Florida-17.556.5W 49 - 12OY
Sat 9/20 Miami vs Florida-7.551.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Miami at Florida State-3.5
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 Miami vs Louisville-12
Sat 10/25 Miami vs Stanford-30
Sat 11/1 Miami at SMU-12
Sat 11/8 Miami vs Syracuse-22
Sat 11/15 Miami vs NC State-19.5
Sat 11/22 Miami at Virginia Tech-28.5
Sat 11/29 Miami at Pittsburgh-13

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Miami's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LOU#59 (.22)42% (77)39.544% (77)2.36 (119)17141% (83)2324.64 (41)#6 (-.12)32% (17)15.533% (25)30% (17)3 (50)77.521
MIAMI#21 (.39)55% (15)40.352% (32)3.42 (31)17759% (8)3075.5 (13)#48 (.06)35% (33)1328% (9)41% (74)3.64 (72)56.70.72
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LOU#15 (.31)46% (26)48% (20)3.09 (56)17345% (30)2514.27 (31)#73 (.18)40% (49)40% (44)40% (65)3.98 (87)46.10.81.2
MIAMI#2 (.4)52% (1)56% (1)3.59 (4)16550% (7)3324.96 (2)#69 (.16)38% (26)38% (16)38% (40)4.02 (91)63.111.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LOU Offense239.539.542.4%4.642204031712325.745%55%44%41%17%.22
MIAMI Defense3131334.8%3.642 - - - - - 46%54%28%41%19%.06
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LOU Defense215.515.532%31 - - - - - 56%44%33%30%16%-.12
MIAMI Offense340.340.355.2%5.50.7264841773075.150%50%52%59%9%.39

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Louisville226:362048%50%8.577.5216.55130.7
Miami332:412652%50%6.356.70.726.32029.9
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LOU Offense245% (99)44% (77)301715.75 (62).36 (21)2.36 (119)50% (124)8% (66)1.6 (4)
MIAMI Defense346% (42)28% (9) - - - - -.2 (7)2.1 (14)50% (19)13% (33)0.91 (64)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LOU Defense256% (109)33% (25) - - - - .04 (60)2.79 (70)75% (80)12% (46)0.91 (66)
MIAMI Offense350% (74)52% (32)351775.110 (10).2 (47)3.42 (31)77% (45)4% (4)0.88 (90)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LOU Offense255% (34)41% (83)19302327.712.23 (90)3 (92).12 (110)1.6 (60)25% (24)26% (103).34 (69)8% (129)2.2 (35)
MIAMI Defense354% (97)41% (74) - - - - - - 3 (28).28 (93)1.5 (58)38% (21)26% (47).24 (62)6% (56)2 (69)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LOU Defense244% (33)30% (17) - - - - - - 1 (87)-.33 (2)1.1 (7)36% (37)26% (43)-.02 (17)5% (94)1.4 (6)
MIAMI Offense350% (59)59% (8)2532.3306.79.512.37 (23)2 (60).57 (18)1.4 (103)23% (13)35% (45).48 (43)5% (65)2.2 (48)

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 19.39 #31
Louisville's Offense Rating: 17.96 #37
Louisville's Defense Rating: -1.43 #24
2025 Talent Rating: 788.00 #57
Blue Chip Ratio: 7% #46
Louisville's 2025 Expected Record: 9.1 - 2.9
Louisville's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.7 #26
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #14
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.8 #45

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 19.39   Miami: 28.43

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 13.7   Miami: 19.7




Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 28.43 #5
Miami's Offense Rating: 31.99 #2
Miami's Defense Rating: -2.73 #18
2025 Talent Rating: 964.00 #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 55 #9
Miami's 2025 Expected Record: 10.8 - 1.2
Miami's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 19.7 #10
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 42.1 #1
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #44

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Louisville Scoring
Offense: 39.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 39.5
Defense: 15.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 15.5

Louisville's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Miami 33
Louisville 21


Total Points: 54

Miami Scoring
Offense: 40.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 40.3
Defense: 13 PPG
Defense at Home: 13

Miami's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/19Louisville45Miami52MiamiMiami -4.5Miami61.5Over
202311/18Miami31Louisville38LouisvilleMiami -1.5Louisville46.5Over
202009/19Louisville34Miami47MiamiMiami -2.5Miami65.5Over
201911/09Miami52Louisville27MiamiMiami -6.5Miami49.0Over
201409/01Louisville31Miami13LouisvilleLouisville -5.5Louisville55.5Under
201312/28Louisville36Miami9LouisvilleLouisville -5.5Louisville60.0Under
200609/16Louisville31Miami7Louisville
200410/14Miami41Louisville38Miami
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Miami434 Overs
Louisville432 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 33 - 33 - 10 - 2
Road Teams3 - 53 - 32 - 01 - 3

(#31) Louisville Info
Power Rating: 19.39 #31
Offense Rating: 17.96 #37
Defense Rating: -1.43 #24
Overall SP+ Rating: 13.7 #26
Offense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #14
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.8 #45
Talent Rating: 788.00 #57
Blue Chip Ratio: 7% #46
Expected Record: 9.1 - 2.9

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.64 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 32%
Avg in Scoring Position 3 PPO
Good Run Def Success 33%
Great Pass Def Success 30%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

Louisville has lost 3 straight
Louisville has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 0 (0 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

Louisville Notes
(9/5) Good battle with JMU, Run Off needs work
(7/28) Def meh LY, added 17 via portal. DL & DB heavy
(7/17) DBs all new, starters come from 8 portals.
(6/9) Stole UK AHC Marrow, best crooter in the state
(6/7) LB unit an ACC best, 4 multi year starters
(5/11) One of the most exp'd OLs, but 67% from portals
(4/12) QB Moss (USC) starter, good add. B Allen #2
(4/9) RB Brown great, Watson as well. Great future
(4/9) OL 3/5 back. 5 portal OL starters added. Solid
(4/9) Upset masters, beat ND ('23), Clemson ('24)

Louisville Highlights
Louisville in Undefeated

Louisville offense is explosive (#6)
Louisville offense is good on 3rd downs
Louisville Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Louisville has a really good defense (#17)
Louisville defense does not give up big plays (#11)
Louisville has a good run defense (#25)
Louisville has a good pass defense (#17)

Louisville Deficiencies
Louisville Can Not Run the Ball (#113)
Louisville Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#132)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatMIAMILOU
OverallOver#4#30
OffenseOff#5#41
DefenseDef#10#19
Special TeamsST#88#114
PassingPass#40#16
RushingRush#15#19
Run BlockRBLK#8#98
Pass BlockPBLK#29#20
Route RunningWR Rt#5#55
TacklingTkl#41#28
Run DefenseR Def#2#39
Pass Rush DefPRush#10#1
Coverage DefCov#53#74

Previous Matchups
Miami beat Louisville last year (52-45)
Louisville beat Miami in 2023 (38-31)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Hard Rock Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: LOU | MIAMI
Depth Chart: LOU | MIAMI
Rosters: LOU | MIAMI
(#5) Miami Info
Power Rating: 28.43 #5
Offense Rating: 31.99 #2
Defense Rating: -2.73 #18
Overall SP+ Rating: 19.7 #10
Offense SP+ Rating: 42.1 #1
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #44
Talent Rating: 964.00 #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 55 #9
Expected Record: 10.8 - 1.2

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
Great Offense Success Rate of 55%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 5.5 PPO
Good Run Success 52%
Great Pass Success 59%
Good OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 35%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.64 PPO
Great Run Def Success 28%
Bad Pass Def Success 41%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Miami has lost 2 straight
Miami has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 3 - 0 (2 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

Miami Notes
(8/20) WR1 Trader seems to be getting most buzz
(6/8) Strength coach resigned in June? Bad timing
(6/4) RBs Fletcher good, Lyle, Seldon (FCS) great depth
(5/23) DEs Bain + Mesidor is one of CFBs top units
(5/21) Def very talented, why so bad? DBs 7 portals
(5/21) QBs Beck (UGA) supposedly good to go summer
(5/21) OL one of CFBs best, 4/5 back. Deep, big
(5/3) Fr WR Malachi Toney is a playmaker, will play
(4/4) DE Bain a top 10 DE via PFF. Hurt LY
(4/4) OT Francis Mauigoa a top OT via PFF

Miami Highlights
Miami in Undefeated
Miami is Undefeated at Home
Miami is Undefeated vs Spread as Home Underdogs

Miami offense is efficent (#15)
Miami offense is good in red zone (#13)
Miami offense is good on 3rd downs
Miami has a good run defense (#9)
Miami Defensive Line is very good (#14)
Miami has a great TO Margin (#28)
Miami defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Miami Deficiencies


  
Louisville's OC Brian Brohm
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Miller Moss (Tr)304863%374227.8
Brady Allen6967%69117.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Isaac Brown18230312.878
Shaun Boykins54008.016
Braxton Jennings62704.510
Keyjuan Brown102612.69
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Bell9146116.264
Caullin Lacy674012.332
Kris Hughes350116.731
Jaleel Skinner335011.719

View Louisville's Full Roster
Louisville's DC Ron English
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Quinn141100
Clev Lubin (Tr)144400
Wesley Bailey (Tr)101110
D'Angelo Hutchinson90000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Clev Lubin (Tr)144400
Adonijah Green71100
Trent Carter11100
TJ Quinn141100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rene Konga82102
Rodney Johnson00001
Antonio Watts71111

Miami's OC Shannon Dawson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carson Beck (Tr)658378%812729.8
Emory Williams101471%108007.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Mark Fletcher Jr.4227246.538
CharMar Brown (Tr)3111123.611
Girard Pringle Jr.74826.930
Chris Wheatley-Humphrey73304.713
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Malachi Toney18228112.728
C.J. Daniels (Tr)14175312.540
Keelan Marion (Tr)10117011.736
Tony Johnson (Tr)384028.051

View Miami's Full Roster
Miami's DC Corey Hetherman
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rueben Bain Jr.153201
Akheem Mesidor133200
Raul Aguirre Jr.100000
Jakobe Thomas (Tr)100000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Akheem Mesidor133200
Rueben Bain Jr.153201
Ahmad Moten92100
Booker Pickett31100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
OJ Frederique Jr.40002
Keionte Scott (Tr)63012
Chase Smith80001