Louisville at Miami Game Matchup
Louisville logo Louisville Cardinals at Miami HurricanesMiami logo
Friday, October 17th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Hard Rock Stadium - Miami Gardens, FL  (ACC)

 
Cardinals (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (18 - 8)
Avg Score : 37 - 24 (31 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.2 - 3.8 (#28)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 4)
LOU coming off BYE
MIAMI coming off BYE
Our Line: Miami -10.5   (SP+ MIAMI -7)
Projected Score: LOU: 26 - MIAMI: 37 (65)
MIAMI Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
LOU Travel: 905 miles
Hurricanes (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (22 - 15)
Avg Score : 44 - 25 (48 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.6 - 2.4 (#12)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 4) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 2)
 
Louisville's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Louisville vs Eastern Kentucky-35.5
Sat 9/6 Louisville vs James Madison-12.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Louisville vs Bowling Green-28
Sat 9/27 Louisville at Pittsburgh-5
Sat 10/4 Louisville vs Virginia-15
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 Louisville at Miami+10.5
Sat 10/25 Louisville vs Boston College-12
Sat 11/1 Louisville at Virginia Tech-4
Sat 11/8 Louisville vs California-17
Fri 11/14 Louisville vs Clemson+11
Sat 11/22 Louisville at SMU+4
Sat 11/29 Louisville vs Kentucky-9.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Louisville's Schedule
Miami's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 8/31 Miami vs Notre Dame+2.554.0
Sat 9/6 Miami vs Bethune-Cookman-43.5
Sat 9/13 Miami vs South Florida-22
Sat 9/20 Miami vs Florida-3
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Miami at Florida State-10
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 Miami vs Louisville-10.5
Sat 10/25 Miami vs Stanford-28
Sat 11/1 Miami at SMU-4
Sat 11/8 Miami vs Syracuse-17
Sat 11/15 Miami vs NC State-16.5
Sat 11/22 Miami at Virginia Tech-12
Sat 11/29 Miami at Pittsburgh-13

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Miami's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LOU#15 (.31)46% (26)36.548% (20)3.09 (56)17345% (30)2514.27 (31)#73 (.18)40% (49)24.140% (44)40% (65)3.98 (87)46.10.81.2
MIAMI#2 (.4)52% (1)43.956% (1)3.59 (4)16550% (7)3324.96 (2)#69 (.16)38% (26)25.338% (16)38% (40)4.02 (91)63.111.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LOU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MIAMI0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LOU Offense1336.531.346.4%4.270.8204241732515.845%54%48%45%13%.31
MIAMI Defense1325.31738.1%4.021.4 - - - - - 45%55%38%38%18%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LOU Defense1324.125.240.2%3.981.2 - - - - - 49%51%40%40%16%.18
MIAMI Offense1343.947.852.5%4.961254971653325.543%57%56%50%10%.4

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Louisville1327:3920.140%40%5.946.10.81.25.82.2130.3
Miami1330:1325.256%65%6.263.111.45.92.6129.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LOU Offense1345% (103)48% (20)29.9172.75.827 (30).2 (35)3.09 (56)65% (116)8% (27)1.04 (43)
MIAMI Defense1345% (11)38% (16) - - - - .08 (49)2.6 (16)57% (4)11% (43)1.15 (125)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LOU Defense1349% (50)40% (44) - - - - .08 (43)2.9 (51)65% (25)11% (43)0.99 (71)
MIAMI Offense1343% (114)56% (1)30.1165.55.528 (25).32 (5)3.59 (4)90% (1)6% (3)0.95 (73)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LOU Offense1354% (32)45% (30)19.630.9251.58.112.823 (41)6 (10).41 (9)1.7 (34)30% (40)38% (8).5 (9)5% (40)2.1 (42)
MIAMI Defense1355% (125)38% (40) - - - - - - 14 (23).23 (66)1.7 (113)36% (9)36% (123).45 (115)7% (34)2.1 (84)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LOU Defense1351% (88)40% (65) - - - - - - 9 (76).27 (87)1.7 (111)31% (78)33% (99).26 (48)5% (94)1.8 (14)
MIAMI Offense1357% (20)50% (7)23.935.1331.69.513.938 (1)7 (26).47 (6)1.7 (26)27% (5)42% (1).69 (1)4% (15)2.3 (6)

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 11.98 #28
Louisville's Offense Rating: 23.53 #15
Louisville's Defense Rating: 11.55 #49
2025 Talent Rating: 766.00 #56
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #48
Louisville's 2025 Expected Record: 8.2 - 3.8
Louisville's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.1 #24
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #12
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #45

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 826.12
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.24

Power Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 11.98   Miami: 22.38

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 12.1   Miami: 18.8




Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 22.38 #15
Miami's Offense Rating: 29.31 #6
Miami's Defense Rating: 8.35 #29
2025 Talent Rating: 966.00 #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 49 #9
Miami's 2025 Expected Record: 9.6 - 2.4
Miami's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 18.8 #12
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 43.2 #1
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #44

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 826.12
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.24


Louisville Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 31.3
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.2

Louisville's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Miami 37
Louisville 26

Projected Total Points: 65
Miami Scoring
Offense: 43.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 47.8
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

Miami's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/19Louisville45Miami52MiamiMiami -4.5Miami61.5Over
202311/18Miami31Louisville38LouisvilleMiami -1.5Louisville46.5Over
202009/19Louisville34Miami47MiamiMiami -2.5Miami65.5Over
201911/09Miami52Louisville27MiamiMiami -6.5Miami49.0Over
201409/01Louisville31Miami13LouisvilleLouisville -5.5Louisville55.5Under
201312/28Louisville36Miami9LouisvilleLouisville -5.5Louisville60.0Under
200609/16Louisville31Miami7Louisville
200410/14Miami41Louisville38Miami
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Miami434 Overs
Louisville432 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 33 - 33 - 10 - 2
Road Teams3 - 53 - 32 - 01 - 3

(#28) Louisville Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 11.98 #28
Offense Rating: 23.53 #15
Defense Rating: 11.55 #49
Overall SP+ Rating: 12.1 #24
Offense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #12
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #45
Talent Rating: 766.00 #56
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #48
Expected Record: 8.2 - 3.8

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
Good Offense Success Rate of 46%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.27 PPO
Great Run Success 48%
Good Pass Success 45%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 40%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.98 PPO
Good Run Def Success 40%
Avg Pass Def Success 40%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Louisville Notes
(5/11) One of the most exp'd OLs, but 67% from portals
(4/12) QB Moss (USC) starter, good add. B Allen #2
(4/12) DB's all new. 2 portals will start. We'll see.
(4/9) RB Brown great, Watson as well. Great future
(4/9) OL 3/5 back. 5 portal OL starters added. Solid
(4/9) Def meh LY, added 13 via portal. More the same?
(4/9) Upset masters, beat ND ('23), Clemson ('24)
(3/22) Added 16 players that started LY via portal
(3/19) WR Bell back, if Lacy is healthy great duo
(3/19) Talent #'s very low. Brohm a great coach
Louisville     Ratings Matchup     Miami
Power #28
#15
Off #15
#6
Def #49
#29
Talent #56
#16
SP+ #24
#12
SP+ Off #12
#1
SP+ Def #45
#44

Previous Matchups
Miami beat Louisville last year (52-45)
Louisville beat Miami in 2023 (38-31)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Hard Rock Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: LOU | MIAMI
Depth Chart: LOU | MIAMI
Rosters: LOU | MIAMI
(#15) Miami Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 22.38 #15
Offense Rating: 29.31 #6
Defense Rating: 8.35 #29
Overall SP+ Rating: 18.8 #12
Offense SP+ Rating: 43.2 #1
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #44
Talent Rating: 966.00 #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 49 #9
Expected Record: 9.6 - 2.4

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
Great Offense Success Rate of 52%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.96 PPO
Great Run Success 56%
Great Pass Success 50%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 38%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.02 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Good Pass Def Success 38%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Miami Notes
(5/21) Def very talented, why so bad? DBs 7 portals
(5/21) ACC sched easy outside @ SMU, OOC hard
(5/21) QBs Beck (UGA) supposedly good to go summer
(5/21) OL one of CFBs best, 4/5 back. Deep, big
(5/3) Fr WR Malachi Toney is a playmaker, will play
(4/4) DE Bain a top 10 DE via PFF. Hurt LY
(4/4) OT Francis Mauigoa a top OT via PFF
(3/28) New DC Hetherman has 1 yr DC exp (Minn)
(3/20) TE Lofton a name to watch. Very athletic
(3/18) RBs Fletcher big time, Lyle good depth


  
Louisville's OC Brian Brohm
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Miller Moss (Tr)23336264%25551897.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Isaac Brown1651173117.177
Duke Watson6759778.968
Keyjuan Brown4724335.224
Chris Bell243021.547
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Bell43737417.168
Treyshun Hurry (Tr)28482217.231
Bobby Golden (Tr)31446114.456
Dacari Collins (Tr)24314213.143

View Louisville's Full Roster
Louisville's DC Ron English
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
JoJo Evans (Tr)933017
TJ Quinn824200
Stanquan Clark768102
D'Angelo Hutchinson522003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Clev Lubin (Tr)43111073
Jordan Guerad224321
Rene Konga203320
Denzel Lowry (Tr)513220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jabari Mack (Tr)3220011
JoJo Evans (Tr)933017
Justin Agu (Tr)362004

Miami's OC Shannon Dawson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carson Beck (Tr)29044865%348528127.8
Emory Williams162662%187117.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Mark Fletcher Jr.11260795.430
Jordan Lyle5440047.491
Keelan Marion (Tr)219624.618
Carson Beck (Tr)557111.314
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
C.J. Daniels (Tr)42480011.434
Tony Johnson (Tr)4945269.223
Keelan Marion (Tr)24346114.452
Alex Bauman (Tr)15171611.436

View Miami's Full Roster
Miami's DC Corey Hetherman
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zechariah Poyser (Tr)773008
Wesley Bissainthe595211
Kamal Bonner (Tr)567160
David Blay (Tr)4510620
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Blay (Tr)4510620
Akheem Mesidor329620
Rueben Bain Jr.236410
Wesley Bissainthe595211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zechariah Poyser (Tr)773008
Ethan O'Connor (Tr)301018
Charles Brantley (Tr)272007