Louisville at Miami - 2025 Matchup Preview
Louisville logo Louisville Cardinals at Miami Hurricanes(#2)Miami logo
Friday, October 17th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Miami -10.5 (49.5) (-440)  Open: -6.5
Louisville 24 - Miami: 21  (ACC)

 
Cardinals (9 - 4) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (18 - 8)
Avg Score : 30 - 21 (23 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
LOU coming off BYE
MIAMI coming off BYE
Our Line: Miami -14.5  (SP+ MIAMI -10)

Projected Score: LOU: 18 - MIAMI: 32 (50)
MIAMI Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
LOU Travel: 905 miles
Hurricanes (13 - 2) (10 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (22 - 15)
Avg Score : 32 - 14 (36 - 12 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.5 - 2.5 (#16)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
 
Louisville's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Louisville vs Eastern Kentucky-37.557.5W 51 - 17ON
Fri 9/5 Louisville vs James Madison-15.057.0W 28 - 14UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Louisville vs Bowling Green-26.550.5W 40 - 17ON
Sat 9/27 Louisville at Pittsburgh-3.053.5W 34 - 27OY
Sat 10/4 Louisville vs Virginia-6.559.5L 27 - 30UN
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 Louisville at Miami+10.549.5W 24 - 21UY
Sat 10/25 Louisville vs Boston College-25.554.5W 38 - 24ON
Sat 11/1 Louisville at Virginia Tech-10.552.5W 28 - 16UY
Sat 11/8 Louisville vs California-18.548.5L 26 - 29ON
Fri 11/14 Louisville vs Clemson-1.550.5L 19 - 20UN
Sat 11/22 Louisville at SMU+4.049.5L 6 - 38UN
Sat 11/29 Louisville vs Kentucky-1.045.5W 41 - 0UY
Tue 12/23 Louisville vs Toledo-12.544.5W 27 - 22ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Louisville's Schedule
Miami's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 8/31 Miami vs Notre Dame+2.553.5W 27 - 24UY
Sat 9/6 Miami vs Bethune-Cookman-54.50.0W 45 - 3ON
Sat 9/13 Miami vs South Florida-17.556.5W 49 - 12OY
Sat 9/20 Miami vs Florida-8.551.5W 26 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Miami at Florida State-3.554.5W 28 - 22UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 Miami vs Louisville-10.549.5L 21 - 24UN
Sat 10/25 Miami vs Stanford-28.545.5W 42 - 7OY
Sat 11/1 Miami at SMU-8.550.5L 20 - 26UN
Sat 11/8 Miami vs Syracuse-28.547.5W 38 - 10ON
Sat 11/15 Miami vs NC State-16.554.5W 41 - 7UY
Sat 11/22 Miami at Virginia Tech-18.549.0W 34 - 17ON
Sat 11/29 Miami at Pittsburgh-6.549.5W 38 - 7UY
Sat 12/20 Miami at Texas A&M+3.048.5W 10 - 3UY
Wed 12/31 Miami vs Ohio State+7.539.5W 24 - 14UY
Thu 1/8 Miami vs Ole Miss-3.052.5W 31 - 27OY
Mon 1/19 Miami at Indiana+8.048.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Miami's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LOU#84 (.15)45% (44)29.950% (8)2.75 (105)16441% (74)2213.62 (77)#15 (.05)37% (16)21.238% (15)37% (19)3.38 (43)63.21.31.5
MIAMI#33 (.22)47% (21)31.645% (56)3.14 (34)15549% (10)2554.35 (24)#14 (.05)37% (15)1437% (10)37% (25)2.38 (2)57.10.91.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LOU#15 (.31)46% (26)48% (20)3.09 (56)17345% (30)2514.27 (31)#73 (.18)40% (49)40% (44)40% (65)3.98 (87)46.10.81.2
MIAMI#2 (.4)52% (1)56% (1)3.59 (4)16550% (7)3324.96 (2)#69 (.16)38% (26)38% (16)38% (40)4.02 (91)63.111.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LOU Offense1329.92344.7%3.621.3203851642215.144%53%50%41%17%.15
MIAMI Defense151411.836.6%2.381.7 - - - - - 41%57%37%37%19%.05
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LOU Defense1321.225.536.7%3.381.5 - - - - - 46%53%38%37%17%.05
MIAMI Offense1531.636.146.5%4.350.9224091552554.351%47%45%49%12%.22

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Louisville1330:1219.635%64%6.963.21.31.55.92.4232.4
Miami1533:4222.348%67%757.10.91.76.43.1330.8
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LOU Offense1344% (111)50% (8)32.31645.125 (70).21 (21)2.75 (105)65% (108)10% (98)1.08 (28)
MIAMI Defense1541% (1)37% (10) - - - - .01 (16)2.59 (14)71% (70)12% (12)1 (92)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LOU Defense1346% (17)38% (15) - - - - .07 (51)2.74 (41)75% (97)11% (38)0.95 (63)
MIAMI Offense1551% (57)45% (56)36.2154.54.326 (40).09 (80)3.14 (34)85% (3)7% (5)0.79 (132)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LOU Offense1353% (35)41% (74)20.632.2220.66.910.718 (75)9 (60).13 (119)1.4 (131)28% (21)27% (104).14 (124)6% (90)1.9 (107)
MIAMI Defense1557% (134)37% (25) - - - - - - 16 (55).13 (18)1.5 (24)36% (14)28% (55).2 (27)8% (14)1.9 (29)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LOU Defense1353% (120)37% (19) - - - - - - 14 (6).06 (6)1.4 (7)34% (24)24% (8).11 (9)7% (38)1.9 (23)
MIAMI Offense1547% (83)49% (10)22.430.9254.68.211.431 (61)11 (108).43 (12)1.5 (80)26% (7)32% (42).37 (42)5% (45)2.1 (58)

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 11.58  #36
Louisville's Offense Rating: 17.35  #43
Louisville's Defense Rating: 5.77  #27
2025 Talent Rating: 788.00  #57
Blue Chip Ratio: 7%  #46
Louisville's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Louisville's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.7  #30
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.8  #43
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5  #28

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 11.58   Miami: 26.315

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 11.7   Miami: 21.8




Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 26.315  #6
Miami's Offense Rating: 24.47  #13
Miami's Defense Rating: -1.36  #6
2025 Talent Rating: 964.00  #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 55  #9
Miami's 2025 Expected Record: 10.5 - 2.5
Miami's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 21.8  #8
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.4  #18
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.3  #10

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Louisville Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 23
Defense: 21.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.5

Louisville's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Miami 32
Louisville 18


Total Points: 50

Based on Last 4 Games
Miami 32
Louisville 21

Total Points: 53

Based on Entire Season
Miami 28
Louisville 20

Total Points: 48
Miami Scoring
Offense: 31.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.1
Defense: 14 PPG
Defense at Home: 11.8

Miami's 2025 Record
Record: 13 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 9
Record at home: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/17Miami21Louisville24Miami -10.5Louisville49.5Under
202410/19Louisville45Miami52Miami -4.5Miami61.5Over
202311/18Miami31Louisville38Miami -1.5Louisville46.5Over
202009/19Louisville34Miami47Miami -2.5Miami65.5Over
201911/09Miami52Louisville27Miami -6.5Miami49.0Over
201409/01Louisville31Miami13Louisville -5.5Louisville55.5Under
201312/28Louisville36Miami9Louisville -5.5Louisville60.0Under
200609/16Louisville31Miami7
200410/14Miami41Louisville38
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Miami434 Overs
Louisville543 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 43 - 43 - 20 - 2
Road Teams4 - 54 - 32 - 02 - 3

(#36) LOU at (#6) MIAMI
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatLOUMIAMI
Net PPPPPP #29 #11
Power RatePwr #36 #6
SP+SP+ #30 #8
Perf GradeGrade #16 #5
OffenseOff #49 #7
DefenseDef #11 #4
Spec TeamsST #70 #49
TalentTal #57 #16
Blue ChipsBC% #46 #9
Louisville Notes
(11/21) QB Moss is ? for SMU game.
(11/16) Bad L vs Clemson, QB Moss culture comments??
(11/15) 3 losses as home favs in last 6 games
(11/4) RB1 I Brown out weeks, maybe SMU/UK (leg)
(11/1) Sluggish vs VT, Run Off 235 big w/ Moss off night
(10/17) Special teams all around one of the best in CFB
(10/17) Brohm special vs Miami, Run Off enough, Def great
(9/27) 17-0 comeback win at Pitt. Moss good, RBs/OL bad
(9/17) Starting LB S Clark likely out for season (leg)
(9/5) Good battle with JMU, Run Off needs work
(7/28) Def meh LY, added 17 via portal. DL & DB heavy
(7/17) DBs all new, starters come from 8 portals.
Louisville Injury Report
Miami Notes
(11/3) 9 trips into SMU territory only scored 20 pts
(11/2) Miami 4-11 under Mario in November+
(10/30) Ugly start vs Stanford, 35-0 in 2H. Def great
(10/30) QB C Beck looks hurt (elbow?) since L'ville game
(10/18) Is L'ville L same ole Miami? Something looked off
(10/17) Off awful, Beck 4 INT, 63 yds rush (2.6 ypc) in L
(9/20) Def awesome, DL may be best in CFB. Contender
(9/20) Beck awful vs Gators, Run Off tough and good
(8/22) TE Lofton a name to watch. Athletic, staff high
(8/20) WR1 Trader seems to be getting most buzz
(6/8) Strength coach resigned in June? Bad timing
(6/4) RBs Fletcher good, Lyle, Seldon (FCS) great depth
Miami Injury Report
Louisville on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
LOU OffMIAMI Def
PPPOffPPP #40 #28
Perf GradePerf #49 #4
SuccessSuc #44 #15
ExplosiveExp #90 #80
PPAPPA #84 #14
PowerPwr #43 #6
SP+SP+ #43 #10
Pts POPPO #77 #2
HavocHav #93 #11
Louisville Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
LOU OffMIAMI Def
Run GameRun #10 #14
Run SuccessRSuc #8 #10
Run ExplRExp #28 #92
PPAExp #21 #16
Run BlockR Blk #66 -
OL YdsOLY #105 #14
Stuff RateStuff #122 #37
TackleTak -  #120
Louisville Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
LOU OffMIAMI Def
Pass GamePass #83 #15
Pass SuccessPSuc #74 #25
Pass ExplPExl #131 #24
PPAExp #119 #18
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #69 #1
F7 HavocF7 #98 #12
DB HavocDB #90 #14
Miami on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatMIAMI OffLOU Def
PPPDefPPP #30 #5
Perf GradePerf #7 #11
SuccessSuc #21 #16
ExplosiveExp #127 #26
PPAPPA #33 #15
PowerPwr #13 #27
SP+SP+ #18 #28
Pts POPPO #24 #43
HavocHav #11 #33
Miami Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
MIAMI OffLOU Def
Run GameRun #21 #41
Run SuccessRSuc #56 #15
Run ExplRExp #132 #63
PPAExp #80 #51
Run BlockR Blk #12 -
OL YdsOLY #34 #41
Stuff RateStuff #14 #52
TackleTak -  #39
Miami Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatMIAMI OffLOU Def
Pass GamePass #32 #20
Pass SuccessPSuc #10 #19
Pass ExplPExl #80 #7
PPAExp #12 #6
Pass Block/RushP Blk #1 #3
F7 HavocF7 #5 #38
DB HavocDB #45 #38
Program Comparison
MIAMI 5 Year Profile: Improving Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

LOU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Hard Rock Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 81° - Wind: 7 mph
Rematch from Week 8
Miami -10.5 (49.5)
Louisville won at Miami this year (24-21)

Previous Matchups
Miami beat Louisville last year (52-45)
Louisville beat Miami in 2023 (38-31)

  
LOU's OC Brian Brohm (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Miller Moss (Tr)24438064%26791677.1
Deuce Adams152171%112005.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Isaac Brown10188478.878
Keyjuan Brown9670467.367
Braxton Jennings3720015.422
Shaun Boykins3719015.126
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Bell72917612.764
Caullin Lacy60635210.648
Dacari Collins (Tr)13219116.836
Jaleel Skinner2120429.733

View Louisville's Full Roster

LOU's DC Ron English (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Quinn958314
D'Angelo Hutchinson843025
JoJo Evans (Tr)643134
Clev Lubin (Tr)5913873
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Clev Lubin (Tr)5913873
Wesley Bailey (Tr)397650
Adonijah Green316440
TJ Quinn958314
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rene Konga295225
D'Angelo Hutchinson843025
TJ Quinn958314

MIAMI's OC Shannon Dawson (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carson Beck (Tr)31943673%358129118.2
Emory Williams131968%156008.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Mark Fletcher Jr.1991080105.456
CharMar Brown (Tr)11945573.813
Girard Pringle Jr.6237546.038
Malachi Toney2311314.913
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Malachi Toney991089911.061
Keelan Marion (Tr)56740213.261
C.J. Daniels (Tr)46495710.847
Elija Lofton2321839.529

View Miami's Full Roster

MIAMI's DC Corey Hetherman (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mohamed Toure (Tr)733205
Jakobe Thomas (Tr)694406
Wesley Bissainthe633110
Zechariah Poyser (Tr)623115
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Akheem Mesidor60161150
Rueben Bain Jr.4613951
Keionte Scott (Tr)6113585
Ahmad Moten268540
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavier Lucas (Tr)452118
Jakobe Thomas (Tr)694406
Mohamed Toure (Tr)733205