Iowa State at Miami - 2024 Matchup Preview
Iowa State logo Iowa State Cyclones vs Miami Hurricanes(#12)Miami logo
Saturday, December 28th 2024 (3:30 PM EST)
Miami -5 (62.0) (-218)  Open: -1.0
Iowa State 42 - Miami: 41  (Pop-Tarts Bowl)

 
Cyclones (11 - 3) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Matt Campbell (53 - 48)
Avg Score : 31 - 23 (25 - 16 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Wind: 15 MPH
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Miami -9  (SP+ MIAMI -11)

Projected Score: ISU: 26 - MIAMI: 35 (60)
MIAMI Win prob: 63% | Cover: 48%
ISU Travel: 1156 miles, 1 hrs behind
Hurricanes (10 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (12 - 13)
Avg Score : 44 - 25 (48 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Iowa State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Iowa State vs North Dakota-30.551.5W 21 - 3UN
Sat 9/7 Iowa State at Iowa+3.035.0W 20 - 19OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 Iowa State vs Arkansas State-20.552.0W 52 - 7OY
Sat 9/28 Iowa State at Houston-16.043.0W 20 - 0UY
Sat 10/5 Iowa State vs Baylor-13.045.0W 43 - 21OY
Sat 10/12 Iowa State at West Virginia-3.054.0W 28 - 16UY
Sat 10/19 Iowa State vs UCF-13.049.5W 38 - 35ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2 Iowa State vs Texas Tech-13.555.0L 22 - 23UN
Sat 11/9 Iowa State vs Kansas-2.550.5L 36 - 45ON
Sat 11/16 Iowa State vs Cincinnati-7.052.5W 34 - 17UY
Sat 11/23 Iowa State at Utah-6.542.5W 31 - 28ON
Sat 11/30 Iowa State vs Kansas State-2.551.5W 29 - 21UY
Sat 12/7 Iowa State vs Arizona State-1.551.5L 19 - 45ON
Sat 12/28 Iowa State vs Miami+5.062.0W 42 - 41OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Iowa State's Schedule
Miami's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Miami at Florida-2.554.5W 41 - 17OY
Sat 9/7 Miami vs Florida A&M-46.555.5W 56 - 9OY
Sat 9/14 Miami vs Ball State-36.555.5W 62 - 0OY
Sat 9/21 Miami at South Florida-17.064.5W 50 - 15OY
Fri 9/27 Miami vs Virginia Tech-17.555.5W 38 - 34ON
Sat 10/5 Miami at California-10.054.0W 39 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 Miami at Louisville-4.561.5W 52 - 45OY
Sat 10/26 Miami vs Florida State-22.555.0W 36 - 14UN
Sat 11/2 Miami vs Duke-21.055.5W 53 - 31OY
Sat 11/9 Miami at Georgia Tech-9.564.5L 23 - 28UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Miami vs Wake Forest-23.567.0W 42 - 14UY
Sat 11/30 Miami at Syracuse-12.565.5L 38 - 42ON
Sat 12/28 Miami vs Iowa State-5.062.0L 41 - 42ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Miami's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ISU#62 (.2)40% (99)31.140% (106)2.83 (102)15041% (77)2364.23 (37)#79 (.18)43% (81)22.946% (101)38% (41)3.44 (29)25.91.11.5
MIAMI#2 (.4)52% (1)43.956% (1)3.59 (4)16550% (7)3324.96 (2)#69 (.16)38% (26)25.338% (16)38% (40)4.02 (91)63.111.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ISU#62 (.2)40% (99)40% (106)2.83 (102)15041% (77)2364.23 (37)#79 (.18)43% (81)46% (101)38% (41)3.44 (29)25.91.11.5
MIAMI#2 (.4)52% (1)56% (1)3.59 (4)16550% (7)3324.96 (2)#69 (.16)38% (26)38% (16)38% (40)4.02 (91)63.111.4



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ISU Offense1431.124.840.4%4.231.1213871502364.451%49%40%41%14%.2
MIAMI Defense1325.31738.1%4.021.4 - - - - - 45%55%38%38%18%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ISU Defense1422.915.842.6%3.441.5 - - - - - 55%45%46%38%15%.18
MIAMI Offense1343.947.852.5%4.961254971653325.543%57%56%50%10%.4

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Iowa State1430:0020.942%81%3.625.91.11.54.71.1130
Miami1330:1325.256%65%6.263.111.45.92.6129.7
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ISU Offense1451% (68)40% (106)34.4150.24.424 (45).12 (74)2.83 (102)70% (88)8% (22)1.1 (19)
MIAMI Defense1345% (11)38% (16) - - - - .08 (49)2.6 (16)57% (4)11% (43)1.15 (125)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ISU Defense1455% (114)46% (101) - - - - .22 (114)3.05 (76)76% (81)9% (85)1.08 (112)
MIAMI Offense1343% (114)56% (1)30.1165.55.528 (25).32 (5)3.59 (4)90% (1)6% (3)0.95 (73)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ISU Offense1449% (67)41% (77)18.331.1236.47.612.922 (46)10 (63).29 (49)1.7 (27)30% (52)35% (29).39 (41)7% (94)2 (70)
MIAMI Defense1355% (125)38% (40) - - - - - - 14 (23).23 (66)1.7 (113)36% (9)36% (123).45 (115)7% (34)2.1 (84)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ISU Defense1445% (21)38% (41) - - - - - - 14 (23).17 (36)1.6 (73)32% (63)32% (86).32 (78)5% (86)2 (48)
MIAMI Offense1357% (20)50% (7)23.935.1331.69.513.938 (1)7 (26).47 (6)1.7 (26)27% (5)42% (1).69 (1)4% (15)2.3 (6)

Iowa State's Power Ratings
Iowa State's Power Rating: 12.07  #23
Iowa State's Offense Rating: 22.95  #42
Iowa State's Defense Rating: 6.20  #37
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #97
Iowa State's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
Iowa State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.3  #28
Iowa State's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.8  #44
Iowa State's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.2  #24

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Iowa State: 12.07   Miami: 20.365

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Iowa State: 10.3   Miami: 21.6




Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 20.365  #8
Miami's Offense Rating: 31.60  #1
Miami's Defense Rating: 7.71  #52
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 43  #13
Miami's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Miami's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 21.6  #10
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 44.2  #1
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.3  #51

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Iowa State Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.8
Defense: 22.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 15.8

Iowa State's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record on Road: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Miami 35
Iowa State 26


Total Points: 60

Based on Last 4 Games
Iowa State 35
Miami 27

Total Points: 61

Based on Entire Season
Miami 32
Iowa State 24

Total Points: 56
Miami Scoring
Offense: 43.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 47.8
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

Miami's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 3
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202412/28Miami41Iowa State42Miami -5Iowa State62.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Miami001 Overs
Iowa State110 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 01 - 00 - 01 - 0

Iowa State Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2024Tarts Bowl Iowa State vs Miami+5.062.0W 42 - 41
2023Liberty Bowl Iowa State vs Memphis-10.558.0L 26 - 36
2021It Bowl Iowa State vs Clemson+1.544.0L 13 - 20
2020Fiesta Bowl Iowa State vs Oregon-4.557.5W 34 - 17
2019World Bowl Iowa State vs Notre Dame+4.055.0L 9 - 33
2018Alamo Bowl Iowa State vs Washington State+2.556.5L 26 - 28
Miami Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2024Tarts Bowl Miami vs Iowa State-5.062.0L 41 - 42
2023Pinstripe Bowl Miami vs Rutgers+3.041.0L 24 - 31
2020It Bowl Miami vs Oklahoma State+2.558.5L 34 - 37
2019Independence Bowl Miami vs Louisiana Tech-7.049.5L 0 - 14
2018Pinstripe Bowl Miami vs Wisconsin-2.543.5L 3 - 35
  
(#23) ISU at (#8) MIAMI
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatISUMIAMI
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #23 #8
SP+SP+ #28 #10
Perf GradeGrade #81 #3
OffenseOff #81 #3
DefenseDef #77 #14
Spec TeamsST #73 #97
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #97 #13
Iowa State Notes
(11/30) Even w/ KSU, forced 2 TOs, Becht 13/35 for 137?
(11/23) OG'd Utah 405-224. Beat K St = B12 title game
(11/18) Bounce back vs Cincy, Off better, Pass D great
(11/13) Run Def mauled by KU, Rgame abysmal, all Becht
(11/2) Bad L vs T.T., Outgained TT, but TOs, 3rd down bad
(10/22) Def stop rate is 77%, #6 in CFB but bad Offs so far
(10/13) Even w/ WVU, clean game, 9-14 3rd down in W
(10/11) LB's are really beat up going into WVU game
(9/19) WR Noel in top 5 vs M2M coverage. Higgins good #2
(9/8) Great comeback vs Iowa, Becht good, Rgame awful
(9/4) Starting MLB Bacon out indefinitely, leg injury
(9/1) Line play awful vs N Dak, 86 yds rush vs 174 gave up
Iowa State Injury Report
Iowa State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ISU OffMIAMI Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #81 #14
SuccessSuc #99 #26
ExplosiveExp #7 #130
PPAPPA #62 #69
PowerPwr #42 #52
SP+SP+ #44 #51
Pts POPPO #37 #91
HavocHav #40 #39
Iowa State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ISU OffMIAMI Def
Run GameRun #51 #9
Run SuccessRSuc #106 #16
Run ExplRExp #19 #125
PPAExp #74 #49
Run BlockR Blk #121 -
OL YdsOLY #102 #16
Stuff RateStuff #115 #7
TackleTak -  #99
Iowa State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ISU OffMIAMI Def
Pass GamePass #92 #59
Pass SuccessPSuc #77 #40
Pass ExplPExl #27 #113
PPAExp #49 #66
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #104 #14
F7 HavocF7 #22 #43
DB HavocDB #94 #34
Miami on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatMIAMI OffISU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #3 #77
SuccessSuc #1 #81
ExplosiveExp #22 #83
PPAPPA #2 #79
PowerPwr #1 #37
SP+SP+ #1 #24
Pts POPPO #2 #29
HavocHav #4 #84
Miami Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
MIAMI OffISU Def
Run GameRun #2 #116
Run SuccessRSuc #1 #101
Run ExplRExp #73 #112
PPAExp #5 #114
Run BlockR Blk #68 -
OL YdsOLY #4 #76
Stuff RateStuff #2 #43
TackleTak -  #114
Miami Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatMIAMI OffISU Def
Pass GamePass #2 #17
Pass SuccessPSuc #7 #41
Pass ExplPExl #26 #73
PPAExp #6 #36
Pass Block/RushP Blk #27 #129
F7 HavocF7 #3 #85
DB HavocDB #15 #86
Program Comparison
MIAMI 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'24 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

ISU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'24 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Camping World Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 75° - Wind: 15 mph
Rematch from Week 1
Miami -5.0 (62.0)
Iowa State won at Miami this year (42-41)

Previous Matchups
Iowa State beat Miami last year (42-41)

  
ISU's OC Taylor Mouser (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Rocco Becht27245760%35052597.7
Connor Moberly51050%49014.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Carson Hansen151752135.057
Abu Sama III12458724.777
Jaylon Jackson (Tr)9338824.251
Rocco Becht9831883.232
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaylin Noel811194814.775
Jayden Higgins871183913.639
Gabe Burkle26296111.432
Benjamin Brahmer10179117.939

View Iowa State's Full Roster

ISU's DC Jon Heacock (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Beau Freyler843004
Malik Verdon754115
Kooper Ebel696110
Jeremiah Cooper481008
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
J.R. Singleton325471
Kenard Snyder (Tr)82200
Joey Petersen466290
Domonique Orange245131
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jeremiah Cooper481008
Myles Purchase354006
Malik Verdon754115

MIAMI's OC Shannon Dawson (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Cameron Ward30545467%43133979.5
Emory Williams162662%187117.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Damien Martinez (Tr)1591002106.375
Mark Fletcher Jr.11260795.430
Jordan Lyle5440047.491
Cameron Ward6020443.424
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Xavier Restrepo6911271116.377
Jacolby George53752814.249
Isaiah Horton56616511.030
Elijah Arroyo35590716.974

View Miami's Full Roster

MIAMI's DC Lance Guidry (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Francisco Mauigoa9611255
Wesley Bissainthe595211
Jaden Harris404202
Mishael Powell (Tr)382116
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Akheem Mesidor329620
Tyler Baron (Tr)3811660
Simeon Barrow Jr. (Tr)308631
Rueben Bain Jr.236410
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daryl Porter Jr.280027
OJ Frederique Jr.231006
Mishael Powell (Tr)382116