South Florida at Miami - 2025 Matchup Preview
South Florida logo (#18)South Florida Bulls at Miami Hurricanes(#5)Miami logo
Saturday, September 13th 2025 (4:30 PM EDT)
Miami -17.5 (56.5) (-800)  Open: 0.0
Miami 49 - South Florida: 12

 
Bulls (2 - 1) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Alex Golesh (13 - 12)
Avg Score : 21 - 24 (15 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 3.4 (#31)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)
USF 2nd straight Road Game
MIAMI 3rd straight Home Game
Our Line: Miami -24.5   (SP+ MIAMI -19)

Projected Score: USF: 14 - MIAMI: 39 (53)
MIAMI Win prob: 89% | Cover: 51%
USF Travel: 197 miles
Hurricanes (3 - 0) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (22 - 15)
Avg Score : 40 - 13 (40 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.8 - 1.2 (#2)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 4) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
 
South Florida's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 South Florida vs Boise State+8.563.5W 34 - 7UY
Sat 9/6 South Florida at Florida+18.558.0W 18 - 16UY
Sat 9/13 South Florida at Miami+17.556.5L 12 - 49ON
Sat 9/20 South Florida vs South Carolina State-27
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/3 South Florida vs Charlotte-23
Fri 10/10 South Florida at North Texas+3.5
Sat 10/18 South Florida vs Florida Atlantic-14.5
Sat 10/25 South Florida at Memphis+14
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/6 South Florida vs UTSA-6
Sat 11/15 South Florida at Navy+0.5
Sat 11/22 South Florida at UAB-15.5
Sat 11/29 South Florida vs Rice-16.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for South Florida's Schedule
Miami's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 8/31 Miami vs Notre Dame+2.553.5W 27 - 24UY
Sat 9/6 Miami vs Bethune-Cookman-54.50.0W 45 - 3ON
Sat 9/13 Miami vs South Florida-17.556.5W 49 - 12OY
Sat 9/20 Miami vs Florida-7.551.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Miami at Florida State-3.5
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 Miami vs Louisville-12
Sat 10/25 Miami vs Stanford-30
Sat 11/1 Miami at SMU-12
Sat 11/8 Miami vs Syracuse-22
Sat 11/15 Miami vs NC State-19.5
Sat 11/22 Miami at Virginia Tech-28.5
Sat 11/29 Miami at Pittsburgh-13

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Miami's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USF#86 (.15)33% (129)21.328% (134)2.62 (102)9537% (106)2704 (67)#76 (.15)43% (93)2447% (107)40% (69)3.79 (80)48.70.72
MIAMI#21 (.39)55% (15)40.352% (32)3.42 (31)17759% (8)3075.5 (13)#48 (.06)35% (33)1328% (9)41% (74)3.64 (72)56.70.72
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USF#83 (.17)38% (118)39% (112)3.06 (60)18138% (106)2273.88 (74)#66 (.16)39% (36)38% (17)40% (69)4 (88)70.91.42.1
MIAMI#2 (.4)52% (1)56% (1)3.59 (4)16550% (7)3324.96 (2)#69 (.16)38% (26)38% (16)38% (40)4.02 (91)63.111.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USF Offense321.31533.3%40.717365952703.443%57%28%37%16%.15
MIAMI Defense3131334.8%3.642 - - - - - 46%54%28%41%19%.06
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USF Defense32432.543%3.792 - - - - - 46%53%47%40%13%.15
MIAMI Offense340.340.355.2%5.50.7264841773075.150%50%52%59%9%.39

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
South Florida324:2816.737%40%648.70.724.71026.2
Miami332:412652%50%6.356.70.726.32029.9
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USF Offense343% (111)28% (134)28953.43 (95)-.03 (114)2.62 (102)78% (41)9% (70)1.36 (15)
MIAMI Defense346% (42)28% (9) - - - - -.2 (7)2.1 (14)50% (19)13% (33)0.91 (64)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USF Defense346% (44)47% (107) - - - - .08 (77)3.2 (111)80% (107)8% (94)0.75 (24)
MIAMI Offense350% (74)52% (32)351775.110 (10).2 (47)3.42 (31)77% (45)4% (4)0.88 (90)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USF Offense357% (23)37% (106)21.3342707.912.73 (90)1 (23).29 (69)1.6 (54)41% (131)22% (120).31 (76)7% (113)2.6 (5)
MIAMI Defense354% (97)41% (74) - - - - - - 3 (28).28 (93)1.5 (58)38% (21)26% (47).24 (62)6% (56)2 (69)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USF Defense353% (86)40% (69) - - - - - - 3 (28).26 (82)1.5 (62)30% (96)35% (107).3 (78)5% (85)1.4 (11)
MIAMI Offense350% (59)59% (8)2532.3306.79.512.37 (23)2 (60).57 (18)1.4 (103)23% (13)35% (45).48 (43)5% (65)2.2 (48)

South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: 7.09 #64
South Florida's Offense Rating: 14.13 #60
South Florida's Defense Rating: 7.04 #68
2025 Talent Rating: 876.00 #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #79
South Florida's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 3.4
South Florida's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.4 #69
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #53
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #91

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
South Florida: 7.09   Miami: 28.43

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Florida: 0.4   Miami: 19.7




Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 28.43 #5
Miami's Offense Rating: 31.99 #2
Miami's Defense Rating: -2.73 #18
2025 Talent Rating: 964.00 #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 55 #9
Miami's 2025 Expected Record: 10.8 - 1.2
Miami's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 19.7 #10
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 42.1 #1
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #44

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


South Florida Scoring
Offense: 21.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 15
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.5

South Florida's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Miami 39
South Florida 14


Total Points: 53

Miami Scoring
Offense: 40.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 40.3
Defense: 13 PPG
Defense at Home: 13

Miami's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/13Miami49South Florida12MiamiMiami -17.5Miami56.5Over
202409/21South Florida15Miami50MiamiMiami -17Miami64.5Over
201309/28South Florida21Miami49MiamiMiami -18.5Miami0
201211/17Miami40South Florida9Miami
201111/19South Florida3Miami6Miami
201011/27Miami20South Florida23South Florida
200911/28South Florida10Miami31Miami
200510/01Miami27South Florida7Miami
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Miami732 Overs
South Florida100 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 51 - 21 - 00 - 2
Road Teams5 - 32 - 12 - 00 - 1

(#64) South Florida Info
Power Rating: 7.09 #64
Offense Rating: 14.13 #60
Defense Rating: 7.04 #68
Overall SP+ Rating: 0.4 #69
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6 #53
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #91
Talent Rating: 876.00 #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #79
Expected Record: 8.6 - 3.4

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 33%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 4 PPO
Awful Run Success 28%
Poor Pass Success 37%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 43%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.79 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 47%
Bad Pass Def Success 40%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position

South Florida has won 2 straight
South Florida has won 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 1 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

South Florida Notes
(8/28) LB good, exp'd. Starters have over 40 starts
(7/12) Golesh go-go offense could fun after Sept
(6/2) RBs Franklin (OU) & Norton (Char) added
(5/11) OL top 10 exp, 78% returning, 22% via portal
(3/23) QB Brown vs Archie, both inconsistent LY
(3/23) WR lost #1, Nimrod (Tenn)/Singleton good
(3/23) OL returns 4/5. 3 more with exp, 2 portals
(3/23) Def bad LY, return a lot. 3 DL portals added
(3/23) OL improve? QB settle? Could be really good
(3/23) HC Golesh former OC. Big year for staff

South Florida Highlights
South Florida offense is explosive (#14)
South Florida does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#21)

South Florida has a great TO Margin (#28)
South Florida defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

South Florida Deficiencies
South Florida Can Not Run the Ball (#123)
South Florida offense is really bad (#129)
South Florida run game is really bad (#134)
South Florida pass game is really bad (#106)
South Florida does not Sack the QB (#112)
South Florida has a bad defensive line (#111)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatMIAMIUSF
OverallOver#4#104
OffenseOff#5#100
DefenseDef#10#103
Special TeamsST#88#109
PassingPass#40#70
RushingRush#15#85
Run BlockRBLK#8#114
Pass BlockPBLK#29#66
Route RunningWR Rt#5#93
TacklingTkl#41#114
Run DefenseR Def#2#110
Pass Rush DefPRush#10#96
Coverage DefCov#53#62

Rematch from Week 3
Miami -17.5 (56.5)
Miami won vs South Florida this year (49-12)

Previous Matchups
Miami beat South Florida last year (50-15)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Hard Rock Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: USF | MIAMI
Depth Chart: USF | MIAMI
Rosters: USF | MIAMI
(#5) Miami Info
Power Rating: 28.43 #5
Offense Rating: 31.99 #2
Defense Rating: -2.73 #18
Overall SP+ Rating: 19.7 #10
Offense SP+ Rating: 42.1 #1
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #44
Talent Rating: 964.00 #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 55 #9
Expected Record: 10.8 - 1.2

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
Great Offense Success Rate of 55%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 5.5 PPO
Good Run Success 52%
Great Pass Success 59%
Good OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 35%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.64 PPO
Great Run Def Success 28%
Bad Pass Def Success 41%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Miami has won 2 straight
Miami has won 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 3 - 0 (2 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

Miami Notes
(8/20) WR1 Trader seems to be getting most buzz
(6/8) Strength coach resigned in June? Bad timing
(6/4) RBs Fletcher good, Lyle, Seldon (FCS) great depth
(5/23) DEs Bain + Mesidor is one of CFBs top units
(5/21) Def very talented, why so bad? DBs 7 portals
(5/21) QBs Beck (UGA) supposedly good to go summer
(5/21) OL one of CFBs best, 4/5 back. Deep, big
(5/3) Fr WR Malachi Toney is a playmaker, will play
(4/4) DE Bain a top 10 DE via PFF. Hurt LY
(4/4) OT Francis Mauigoa a top OT via PFF

Miami Highlights
Miami in Undefeated
Miami is Undefeated at Home

Miami offense is efficent (#15)
Miami offense is good in red zone (#13)
Miami offense is good on 3rd downs
Miami has a good run defense (#9)
Miami Defensive Line is very good (#14)
Miami has a great TO Margin (#28)
Miami defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Miami Deficiencies


  
South Florida's OC Joel Gordon
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Byrum Brown599662%747217.8
Gaston Moore (Tr)4580%18003.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Byrum Brown4411122.523
Alvon Isaac1410807.749
Cartevious Norton (Tr)154913.38
Sam Franklin (Tr)81902.45
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chas Nimrod (Tr)10248024.855
Keshaun Singleton9207223.066
Wyatt Sullivan (Tr)87509.430
Alvon Isaac774010.629

View South Florida's Full Roster
South Florida's DC Todd Orlando
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jhalyn Shuler292002
Mac Harris262220
De'Shawn Rucker211001
Tavin Ward160001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mac Harris262220
Ricardo Watson152110
Jhalyn Shuler292002
Boogsie Silvera (Tr)50000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jhalyn Shuler292002
De'Shawn Rucker211001
Tavin Ward160001

Miami's OC Shannon Dawson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carson Beck (Tr)658378%812729.8
Emory Williams101471%108007.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Mark Fletcher Jr.4227246.538
CharMar Brown (Tr)3111123.611
Girard Pringle Jr.74826.930
Chris Wheatley-Humphrey73304.713
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Malachi Toney18228112.728
C.J. Daniels (Tr)14175312.540
Keelan Marion (Tr)10117011.736
Tony Johnson (Tr)384028.051

View Miami's Full Roster
Miami's DC Corey Hetherman
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rueben Bain Jr.153201
Akheem Mesidor133200
Raul Aguirre Jr.100000
Jakobe Thomas (Tr)100000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Akheem Mesidor133200
Rueben Bain Jr.153201
Ahmad Moten92100
Booker Pickett31100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
OJ Frederique Jr.40002
Keionte Scott (Tr)63012
Chase Smith80001