South Florida at Miami - 2025 Matchup Preview
South Florida logo   South Florida Bulls at Miami Hurricanes  Miami logo
Saturday, September 13th 2025 (4:30 PM EDT)
Miami -17.5 (56.5) (-800)  Open: 0.0
Miami 49 - South Florida: 12

 
Bulls (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Alex Golesh (13 - 12)
Avg Score : 41 - 23 (35 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.9 - 3.1 (#22)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)
USF 2nd straight Road Game
MIAMI 3rd straight Home Game
Our Line: Miami -14.5  (SP+ MIAMI -9)

Projected Score: USF: 21 - MIAMI: 36 (57)
MIAMI Win prob: 89% | Cover: 51%
USF Travel: 197 miles
Hurricanes (13 - 3) (11 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (22 - 15)
Avg Score : 31 - 15 (36 - 12 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.5 - 2.5 (#16)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 4) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
 
South Florida's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 South Florida vs Boise State+8.563.5W 34 - 7UY
Sat 9/6 South Florida at Florida+18.558.0W 18 - 16UY
Sat 9/13 South Florida at Miami+17.556.5L 12 - 49ON
Sat 9/20 South Florida vs South Carolina State-36.056.5W 63 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/3 South Florida vs Charlotte-28.554.5W 54 - 26ON
Fri 10/10 South Florida at North Texas+2.568.5W 63 - 36OY
Sat 10/18 South Florida vs Florida Atlantic-20.572.5W 48 - 13UY
Sat 10/25 South Florida at Memphis-3.558.5L 31 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/6 South Florida vs UTSA-14.066.5W 55 - 23OY
Sat 11/15 South Florida at Navy-8.562.5L 38 - 41ON
Sat 11/22 South Florida at UAB-21.568.5W 48 - 18UY
Sat 11/29 South Florida vs Rice-28.557.5W 52 - 3UY
Wed 12/17 South Florida vs Old Dominion-4.052.5L 10 - 24UN

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for South Florida's Schedule
Miami's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 8/31 Miami vs Notre Dame+2.553.5W 27 - 24UY
Sat 9/6 Miami vs Bethune-Cookman-54.50.0W 45 - 3ON
Sat 9/13 Miami vs South Florida-17.556.5W 49 - 12OY
Sat 9/20 Miami vs Florida-8.551.5W 26 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Miami at Florida State-3.554.5W 28 - 22UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 Miami vs Louisville-10.549.5L 21 - 24UN
Sat 10/25 Miami vs Stanford-28.545.5W 42 - 7OY
Sat 11/1 Miami at SMU-8.550.5L 20 - 26UN
Sat 11/8 Miami vs Syracuse-28.547.5W 38 - 10ON
Sat 11/15 Miami vs NC State-16.554.5W 41 - 7UY
Sat 11/22 Miami at Virginia Tech-18.549.0W 34 - 17ON
Sat 11/29 Miami at Pittsburgh-6.549.5W 38 - 7UY
Sat 12/20 Miami at Texas A&M+3.048.5W 10 - 3UY
Wed 12/31 Miami vs Ohio State+7.539.5W 24 - 14UY
Thu 1/8 Miami vs Ole Miss-3.052.5W 31 - 27OY
Mon 1/19 Miami vs Indiana+7.546.5L 21 - 27OY

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Miami's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USF#83 (.17)38% (118)40.539% (112)3.06 (60)18138% (106)2273.88 (74)#66 (.16)39% (36)23.438% (17)40% (69)4 (88)70.91.42.1
MIAMI#2 (.4)52% (1)30.956% (1)3.59 (4)16550% (7)3324.96 (2)#69 (.16)38% (26)14.838% (16)38% (40)4.02 (91)63.111.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MIAMI0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USF Offense1340.53538.3%3.881.4204081812274.848%52%39%38%15%.17
MIAMI Defense1314.811.838.1%4.021.4 - - - - - 45%55%38%38%18%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USF Defense1323.432.339.2%42.1 - - - - - 49%51%38%40%20%.16
MIAMI Offense1330.936.152.5%4.961254971653325.543%57%56%50%10%.4

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
South Florida1325:1020.439%56%8.170.91.42.18.12.5230.7
Miami1330:1325.256%65%6.263.111.45.92.6129.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USF Offense1348% (82)39% (112)37.8180.84.834 (10).2 (32)3.06 (60)66% (114)10% (62)1.26 (3)
MIAMI Defense1345% (11)38% (16) - - - - .08 (49)2.6 (16)57% (4)11% (43)1.15 (125)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USF Defense1349% (46)38% (17) - - - - .04 (26)2.63 (18)70% (48)13% (11)1.13 (121)
MIAMI Offense1343% (114)56% (1)30.1165.55.528 (25).32 (5)3.59 (4)90% (1)6% (3)0.95 (73)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USF Offense1352% (51)38% (106)20.234.1227.56.711.316 (87)10 (63).13 (113)1.5 (109)34% (114)25% (121).22 (105)6% (68)2.2 (21)
MIAMI Defense1355% (125)38% (40) - - - - - - 14 (23).23 (66)1.7 (113)36% (9)36% (123).45 (115)7% (34)2.1 (84)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USF Defense1351% (91)40% (69) - - - - - - 13 (31).28 (89)1.6 (78)34% (32)32% (87).3 (64)7% (46)1.9 (32)
MIAMI Offense1357% (20)50% (7)23.935.1331.69.513.938 (1)7 (26).47 (6)1.7 (26)27% (5)42% (1).69 (1)4% (15)2.3 (6)

South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: 11.22  #40
South Florida's Offense Rating: 22.51  #18
South Florida's Defense Rating: 11.29  #54
2025 Talent Rating: 876.00  #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 2%  #79
South Florida's 2025 Expected Record: 9.9 - 3.1
South Florida's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.6  #29
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7  #12
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3  #62

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
South Florida: 11.22   Miami: 25.765

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Florida: 11.6   Miami: 20.7




Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 25.765  #6
Miami's Offense Rating: 24.47  #13
Miami's Defense Rating: -1.36  #6
2025 Talent Rating: 964.00  #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 55  #9
Miami's 2025 Expected Record: 10.5 - 2.5
Miami's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 20.7  #9
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2  #22
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.3  #7

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


South Florida Scoring
Offense: 40.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 35
Defense: 23.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.3

South Florida's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Miami 36
South Florida 21


Projected Total Points: 57
Miami Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.1
Defense: 14.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 11.8

Miami's 2025 Record
Record: 13 - 3
Record vs Spread: 11 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 9
Record at home: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/13Miami49South Florida12Miami -17.5Miami56.5Over
202409/21South Florida15Miami50Miami -17Miami64.5Over
201309/28South Florida21Miami49Miami -18.5Miami0
201211/17Miami40South Florida9
201111/19South Florida3Miami6
201011/27Miami20South Florida23
200911/28South Florida10Miami31
200510/01Miami27South Florida7
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Miami732 Overs
South Florida100 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 51 - 21 - 00 - 2
Road Teams5 - 32 - 12 - 00 - 1

(#40) USF at (#6) MIAMI
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUSFMIAMI
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #40 #6
SP+SP+ #29 #9
Perf GradeGrade #38 #5
OffenseOff #27 #7
DefenseDef #61 #4
Spec TeamsST #85 #49
TalentTal #30 #16
Blue ChipsBC% #79 #9
South Florida Notes
(12/16) Hiring Tim Beck as OC for reasons unknown.
(12/3) Hiring OSU OC Brian Hartline, Golesh left for Auburn
(10/10) Mauled N Texas, over 600 yds offense, 300 rushing
(10/4) Still running QB Brown 17 times in Char blowout?
(8/29) QB Brown great vs Boise, tough runner. Big W
(8/28) LB good, exp'd. Starters have over 40 starts
(7/12) Golesh go-go offense could fun after Sept
(6/2) RBs Franklin (OU) & Norton (Char) added
(5/11) OL top 10 exp, 78% returning, 22% via portal
(3/23) QB Brown vs Archie, both inconsistent LY
(3/23) WR lost #1, Nimrod (Tenn)/Singleton good
(3/23) OL returns 4/5. 3 more with exp, 2 portals
South Florida Injury Report
Miami Notes
(11/3) 9 trips into SMU territory only scored 20 pts
(11/2) Miami 4-11 under Mario in November+
(10/30) Ugly start vs Stanford, 35-0 in 2H. Def great
(10/30) QB C Beck looks hurt (elbow?) since L'ville game
(10/18) Is L'ville L same ole Miami? Something looked off
(10/17) Off awful, Beck 4 INT, 63 yds rush (2.6 ypc) in L
(9/20) Def awesome, DL may be best in CFB. Contender
(9/20) Beck awful vs Gators, Run Off tough and good
(8/22) TE Lofton a name to watch. Athletic, staff high
(8/20) WR1 Trader seems to be getting most buzz
(6/8) Strength coach resigned in June? Bad timing
(6/4) RBs Fletcher good, Lyle, Seldon (FCS) great depth
Miami Injury Report
South Florida on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
USF OffMIAMI Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #27 #4
SuccessSuc #118 #26
ExplosiveExp #10 #130
PPAPPA #83 #69
PowerPwr #18 #6
SP+SP+ #12 #7
Pts POPPO #74 #91
HavocHav #57 #39
South Florida Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
USF OffMIAMI Def
Run GameRun #19 #14
Run SuccessRSuc #112 #16
Run ExplRExp #3 #125
PPAExp #32 #49
Run BlockR Blk #76 -
OL YdsOLY #60 #16
Stuff RateStuff #45 #7
TackleTak -  #120
South Florida Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
USF OffMIAMI Def
Pass GamePass #8 #15
Pass SuccessPSuc #106 #40
Pass ExplPExl #109 #113
PPAExp #113 #66
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #18 #1
F7 HavocF7 #62 #43
DB HavocDB #68 #34
Miami on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatMIAMI OffUSF Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #7 #61
SuccessSuc #1 #36
ExplosiveExp #22 #115
PPAPPA #2 #66
PowerPwr #13 #54
SP+SP+ #22 #62
Pts POPPO #2 #88
HavocHav #4 #15
Miami Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
MIAMI OffUSF Def
Run GameRun #21 #77
Run SuccessRSuc #1 #17
Run ExplRExp #73 #121
PPAExp #5 #26
Run BlockR Blk #12 -
OL YdsOLY #4 #18
Stuff RateStuff #2 #10
TackleTak -  #132
Miami Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatMIAMI OffUSF Def
Pass GamePass #32 #71
Pass SuccessPSuc #7 #69
Pass ExplPExl #26 #78
PPAExp #6 #89
Pass Block/RushP Blk #1 #8
F7 HavocF7 #3 #11
DB HavocDB #15 #46
Program Comparison
MIAMI 5 Year Profile: Improving Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

USF 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Hard Rock Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 3
Miami -17.5 (56.5)
Miami won vs South Florida this year (49-12)

Previous Matchups
Miami beat South Florida last year (49-12)
Miami beat South Florida in 2024 (50-15)

  
USF's OC Joel Gordon (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Byrum Brown22634166%31582879.3
Gaston Moore (Tr)344871%290226.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Byrum Brown1751008145.860
Nykahi Davenport9861276.260
Sam Franklin (Tr)8047445.973
Alvon Isaac7335004.849
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Keshaun Singleton50877817.566
Jeremiah Koger38597815.763
Mudia Reuben (Tr)36495513.860
Chas Nimrod (Tr)23466320.355

View South Florida's Full Roster

USF's DC Todd Orlando (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jhalyn Shuler1059368
Mac Harris1038672
Tavin Ward602002
De'Shawn Rucker582004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mac Harris1038672
Jarvis Lee Jr.5512442
Ricardo Watson497351
Jhalyn Shuler1059368
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jhalyn Shuler1059368
De'Shawn Rucker582004
Jonas Duclona (Tr)353104

MIAMI's OC Shannon Dawson (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carson Beck (Tr)33846872%381330128.1
Emory Williams131968%156008.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Mark Fletcher Jr.2161192125.557
CharMar Brown (Tr)12246073.813
Girard Pringle Jr.6237546.038
Malachi Toney2311314.913
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Malachi Toney10912111011.161
Keelan Marion (Tr)57746213.161
C.J. Daniels (Tr)50557711.147
Elija Lofton2321839.529

View Miami's Full Roster

MIAMI's DC Corey Hetherman (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mohamed Toure (Tr)843216
Jakobe Thomas (Tr)754406
Wesley Bissainthe713110
Zechariah Poyser (Tr)683115
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Akheem Mesidor63181360
Rueben Bain Jr.54161051
Keionte Scott (Tr)6413585
Ahmad Moten319540
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavier Lucas (Tr)452118
OJ Frederique Jr.190007
Mohamed Toure (Tr)843216