Miami at SMU - 2025 Matchup Preview
Miami logo Miami Hurricanes at SMU MustangsSMU logo
Saturday, November 1st 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Gerald J. Ford Stadium - University Park, TX  (ACC)

 
Hurricanes (5 - 0) (4 - 1 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (22 - 15)
Avg Score : 35 - 14 (28 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11.3 - 0.7 (#4)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
SMU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Miami -8  (SP+ MIAMI -11.5)

Projected Score: MIAMI: 30 - SMU: 22 (51)
MIAMI Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
MIAMI Travel: 1102 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Mustangs (4 - 2) (1 - 5 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (29 - 12)
Avg Score : 34 - 22 (38 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 4.2 (#45)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
 
Miami's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 8/31 Miami vs Notre Dame+2.553.5W 27 - 24UY
Sat 9/6 Miami vs Bethune-Cookman-54.50.0W 45 - 3ON
Sat 9/13 Miami vs South Florida-17.556.5W 49 - 12OY
Sat 9/20 Miami vs Florida-8.551.5W 26 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Miami at Florida State-3.554.5W 28 - 22UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 Miami vs Louisville-13.551.5
Sat 10/25 Miami vs Stanford-36
Sat 11/1 Miami at SMU-8
Sat 11/8 Miami vs Syracuse-31
Sat 11/15 Miami vs NC State-21.5
Sat 11/22 Miami at Virginia Tech-29
Sat 11/29 Miami at Pittsburgh-10

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Miami's Schedule
SMU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 SMU vs East Texas A&M-51.065.0W 42 - 13UN
Sat 9/6 SMU vs Baylor-3.065.5L 45 - 48ON
Sat 9/13 SMU at Missouri State-29.560.5W 28 - 10UN
Sat 9/20 SMU at TCU+6.563.5L 24 - 35UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 SMU vs Syracuse-17.556.5W 31 - 18UN
Sat 10/11 SMU vs Stanford-19.555.5W 34 - 10UY
Sat 10/18 SMU at Clemson+9.555.5
Sat 10/25 SMU at Wake Forest-5.5
Sat 11/1 SMU vs Miami+8
Sat 11/8 SMU at Boston College-16.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 SMU vs Louisville+0.5
Sat 11/29 SMU at California-13

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for SMU's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MIAMI#32 (.29)51% (12)3550% (24)3.19 (39)16353% (6)2644.97 (16)#23 (.06)36% (15)13.636% (20)35% (19)3.53 (53)62.80.61.8
SMU#36 (.27)44% (58)3441% (94)3.03 (61)12747% (30)2784.32 (49)#18 (.04)41% (59)22.338% (32)43% (83)2.38 (3)67.81.52.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MIAMI#2 (.4)52% (1)56% (1)3.59 (4)16550% (7)3324.96 (2)#69 (.16)38% (26)38% (16)38% (40)4.02 (91)63.111.4
SMU#38 (.24)44% (53)44% (62)2.97 (83)16944% (45)2634.41 (25)#5 (.03)37% (9)39% (35)35% (10)3.09 (13)77.71.71.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MIAMI Offense5352851.2%4.970.6234281632644.553%47%50%53%10%.29
SMU Defense622.322.340.6%2.382.3 - - - - - 41%58%38%43%21%.04
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MIAMI Defense513.62235.7%3.531.8 - - - - - 46%54%36%35%18%.06
SMU Offense6343844.1%4.321.522405127278446%53%41%47%17%.27

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Miami532:5922.648%63%7.662.80.61.86.22.4032.5
SMU626:1921.538%75%767.81.52.36.73.2328.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MIAMI Offense553% (44)50% (24)36.2163.44.512 (48).14 (61)3.19 (39)84% (14)5% (3)0.81 (119)
SMU Defense641% (7)38% (32) - - - - -.06 (12)2.58 (29)59% (15)11% (51)0.86 (28)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MIAMI Defense546% (32)36% (20) - - - - -.07 (8)2.64 (34)64% (32)12% (29)0.86 (30)
SMU Offense646% (101)41% (94)31.5127.249 (77).12 (72)3.03 (61)84% (13)10% (98)1.04 (43)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MIAMI Offense547% (88)53% (6)22.430.8264.28.611.811 (49)3 (26).45 (24)1.4 (109)24% (8)29% (87).22 (103)5% (42)2 (61)
SMU Defense658% (130)43% (83) - - - - - - 10 (5).11 (30)1.5 (52)35% (28)32% (98).23 (48)11% (2)2 (64)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MIAMI Defense554% (109)35% (19) - - - - - - 5 (46).17 (42)1.6 (82)38% (11)29% (66).29 (70)6% (75)1.9 (35)
SMU Offense653% (41)47% (30)2332277.88.712.115 (13)6 (102).46 (23)1.6 (49)31% (72)28% (96).35 (59)6% (93)2.2 (23)

Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 32.80  #3
Miami's Offense Rating: 29.46  #7
Miami's Defense Rating: -9.88  #8
2025 Talent Rating: 964.00  #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 55%  #9
Miami's 2025 Expected Record: 11.3 - 0.7
Miami's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 20.5  #15
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.0  #6
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.7  #23

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Miami: 32.80   SMU: 18.805

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Miami: 20.5   SMU: 8.8




SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 18.805  #22
SMU's Offense Rating: 20.49  #30
SMU's Defense Rating: -3.32  #20
2025 Talent Rating: 756.00  #64
Blue Chip Ratio: 9  #42
SMU's 2025 Expected Record: 7.8 - 4.2
SMU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.8  #44
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.0  #29
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3  #59

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Miami Scoring
Offense: 35 PPG
Offense on Road: 28
Defense: 13.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 22

Miami's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Miami 30
SMU 22


Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
Miami 24
SMU 24

Total Points: 48

Based on Entire Season
Miami 27
SMU 27

Total Points: 54
SMU Scoring
Offense: 34 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3

SMU's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
TeamWinsCoversO/U
SMU000 Overs
Miami000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#3) MIAMI at (#22) SMU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMIAMISMU
Power RatePwr #3 #22
SP+SP+ #15 #44
Perf GradeGrade #4 #35
OffenseOff #11 #35
DefenseDef #3 #21
Spec TeamsST #113 #78
TalentTal #16 #64
Blue ChipsBC% #9 #42

Miami Notes
(9/20) Def awesome, DL may be best in CFB. Contender
(9/20) Beck awful vs Gators, Run Off tough and good
(8/22) TE Lofton a name to watch. Athletic, staff high
(8/20) WR1 Trader seems to be getting most buzz
(6/8) Strength coach resigned in June? Bad timing
(6/4) RBs Fletcher good, Lyle, Seldon (FCS) great depth
(5/23) DEs Bain + Mesidor is one of CFBs top units
(5/21) Def very talented, why so bad? DBs 7 portals
(5/21) QBs Beck (UGA) supposedly good to go summer
(5/21) OL one of CFBs best, 4/5 back. Deep, big
(5/3) Fr WR Malachi Toney is a playmaker, will play

SMU Notes
(9/20) Run Off bad, Jennings TOs & Def are major issues
(9/20) Def allowing 41.5 pts vs real competition, woof
(7/27) S Isaiah Nwokobia & Ahmaad Moses great duo
(6/14) Same HC, OC, DC, S&C coaches for 4 years
(5/28) OT PJ Williams a future star, 900+ snaps of A ball
(5/28) Def good LY, must replace a lot, 13 portal adds
(5/20) DL added 10 portals (7 from P4), both DEs back
(5/20) LB replaces most, 2 productive G5 portal adds
(5/20) OL decent LY, 4 exp'd starters, 3 P4 portal adds
(5/20) Pass D really good LY, have #1 CB, good at S
(5/3) RBs rebuild. Soph McFall #1, good depth/potential
Miami on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MIAMI OffSMU Def
Perf GradePerf #11 #21
SuccessSuc #12 #59
ExplosiveExp #128 #58
PPAPPA #32 #18
PowerPwr #7 #20
SP+SP+ #6 #59
Pts POPPO #16 #3
HavocHav #7 #11
Miami Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MIAMI OffSMU Def
Run GameRun #31 #16
Run SuccessRSuc #24 #32
Run ExplRExp #119 #28
PPAExp #61 #12
Run BlockR Blk #12 -
OL YdsOLY #39 #29
Stuff RateStuff #20 #8
TackleTak -  #23
Miami Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MIAMI OffSMU Def
Pass GamePass #46 #47
Pass SuccessPSuc #6 #83
Pass ExplPExl #109 #52
PPAExp #24 #30
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #8 #60
F7 HavocF7 #3 #51
DB HavocDB #42 #2
SMU on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatSMU OffMIAMI Def
Perf GradePerf #35 #3
SuccessSuc #58 #15
ExplosiveExp #15 #56
PPAPPA #36 #23
PowerPwr #30 #8
SP+SP+ #29 #23
Pts POPPO #49 #53
HavocHav #99 #44
SMU Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
SMU OffMIAMI Def
Run GameRun #124 #2
Run SuccessRSuc #94 #20
Run ExplRExp #43 #30
PPAExp #72 #8
Run BlockR Blk #31 -
OL YdsOLY #61 #34
Stuff RateStuff #71 #85
TackleTak -  #82
SMU Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatSMU OffMIAMI Def
Pass GamePass #35 #31
Pass SuccessPSuc #30 #19
Pass ExplPExl #49 #82
PPAExp #23 #42
Pass Block/RushP Blk #1 #3
F7 HavocF7 #98 #29
DB HavocDB #93 #75
Program Comparison
SMU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average P4
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

MIAMI 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
MIAMI's OC Shannon Dawson (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carson Beck (Tr)10214073%12131138.7
Emory Williams101471%108007.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Mark Fletcher Jr.7842855.538
CharMar Brown (Tr)5721043.712
Girard Pringle Jr.74826.930
Keelan Marion (Tr)235017.522
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Malachi Toney29375312.944
C.J. Daniels (Tr)23269511.747
Keelan Marion (Tr)11125011.436
Elija Lofton1110009.117

View Miami's Full Roster

MIAMI's DC Corey Hetherman (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rueben Bain Jr.264231
Mohamed Toure (Tr)241101
Akheem Mesidor235420
Wesley Bissainthe222000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Akheem Mesidor235420
Rueben Bain Jr.264231
Jakobe Thomas (Tr)203202
Ahmad Moten102100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keionte Scott (Tr)204033
OJ Frederique Jr.60002
Jakobe Thomas (Tr)203202

SMU's OC Casey Woods (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kevin Jennings13719172%16581568.7
Ty Hawkins11100%9009.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
TJ Harden (Tr)8541554.940
Chris Johnson Jr. (Tr)2822628.187
Dramekco Green185513.113
Derrick McFall123002.59
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Romello Brinson32484315.175
Jalen Cooper15271218.175
Jordan Hudson15203213.537
Yamir Knight (Tr)2119029.034

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Scott Symons (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Nwokobia482006
Ahmaad Moses444100
Brandon Booker331130
Cam Robertson318532
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cam Robertson318532
Jeffrey M'Ba (Tr)225400
Terry Webb (Tr)203301
Isaiah Smith227321
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Nwokobia482006
Brandon Miyazono212105
Deuce Harmon190004