Miami at SMU - 2025 Matchup Preview
Miami logo (#10)Miami Hurricanes at SMU MustangsSMU logo
Saturday, November 1st 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Miami -8.5 (50.5) (-325)  Open: -1.5
SMU 26 - Miami: 20  (ACC)

 
Hurricanes (13 - 2) (10 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (22 - 15)
Avg Score : 32 - 14 (26 - 15 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.5 - 2.5 (#16)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Rain Predicted
SMU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Miami -8  (SP+ MIAMI -8.5)

Projected Score: MIAMI: 28 - SMU: 20 (49)
MIAMI Win prob: 71% | Cover: 46%
MIAMI Travel: 1102 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Mustangs (9 - 4) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (29 - 12)
Avg Score : 32 - 21 (36 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 4.3 (#36)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
Miami's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 8/31 Miami vs Notre Dame+2.553.5W 27 - 24UY
Sat 9/6 Miami vs Bethune-Cookman-54.50.0W 45 - 3ON
Sat 9/13 Miami vs South Florida-17.556.5W 49 - 12OY
Sat 9/20 Miami vs Florida-8.551.5W 26 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Miami at Florida State-3.554.5W 28 - 22UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 Miami vs Louisville-10.549.5L 21 - 24UN
Sat 10/25 Miami vs Stanford-28.545.5W 42 - 7OY
Sat 11/1 Miami at SMU-8.550.5L 20 - 26UN
Sat 11/8 Miami vs Syracuse-28.547.5W 38 - 10ON
Sat 11/15 Miami vs NC State-16.554.5W 41 - 7UY
Sat 11/22 Miami at Virginia Tech-18.549.0W 34 - 17ON
Sat 11/29 Miami at Pittsburgh-6.549.5W 38 - 7UY
Sat 12/20 Miami at Texas A&M+3.048.5W 10 - 3UY
Wed 12/31 Miami vs Ohio State+7.539.5W 24 - 14UY
Thu 1/8 Miami vs Ole Miss-3.052.5W 31 - 27OY
Mon 1/19 Miami at Indiana+8.048.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Miami's Schedule
SMU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 SMU vs East Texas A&M-51.065.0W 42 - 13UN
Sat 9/6 SMU vs Baylor-3.065.5L 45 - 48ON
Sat 9/13 SMU at Missouri State-29.560.5W 28 - 10UN
Sat 9/20 SMU at TCU+6.563.5L 24 - 35UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 SMU vs Syracuse-17.556.5W 31 - 18UN
Sat 10/11 SMU vs Stanford-19.555.5W 34 - 10UY
Sat 10/18 SMU at Clemson+3.549.5W 35 - 24OY
Sat 10/25 SMU at Wake Forest-6.553.5L 12 - 13UN
Sat 11/1 SMU vs Miami+8.550.5W 26 - 20UY
Sat 11/8 SMU at Boston College-10.554.5W 45 - 13OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 SMU vs Louisville-4.049.5W 38 - 6UY
Sat 11/29 SMU at California-13.553.5L 35 - 38ON
Fri 1/2 SMU vs Arizona-2.555.5W 24 - 19UY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for SMU's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MIAMI#33 (.22)47% (21)31.645% (56)3.14 (34)15549% (10)2554.35 (24)#14 (.05)37% (15)1437% (10)37% (25)2.38 (2)57.10.91.7
SMU#30 (.23)43% (64)32.242% (93)2.9 (75)13444% (39)2833.89 (53)#9 (.03)40% (52)20.538% (18)43% (90)2.79 (12)70.81.52.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MIAMI#2 (.4)52% (1)56% (1)3.59 (4)16550% (7)3324.96 (2)#69 (.16)38% (26)38% (16)38% (40)4.02 (91)63.111.4
SMU#38 (.24)44% (53)44% (62)2.97 (83)16944% (45)2634.41 (25)#5 (.03)37% (9)39% (35)35% (10)3.09 (13)77.71.71.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MIAMI Offense1531.62646.5%4.350.9224091552554.351%47%45%49%12%.22
SMU Defense1320.519.240.2%2.792.2 - - - - - 43%55%38%43%19%.03
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MIAMI Defense15141536.6%2.381.7 - - - - - 41%57%37%37%19%.05
SMU Offense1332.23642.6%3.891.5214171342834.443%55%42%44%17%.23

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Miami1533:4222.348%67%757.10.91.76.43.1330.8
SMU1326:5220.741%67%770.81.52.26.32.8327.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MIAMI Offense1551% (57)45% (56)36.2154.54.326 (40).09 (80)3.14 (34)85% (3)7% (5)0.79 (132)
SMU Defense1343% (7)38% (18) - - - - -.08 (5)2.76 (46)59% (8)10% (45)0.78 (4)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MIAMI Defense1541% (1)37% (10) - - - - .01 (16)2.59 (14)71% (70)12% (12)1 (92)
SMU Offense1343% (119)42% (93)30.8133.94.425 (70).11 (70)2.9 (75)79% (19)10% (74)1 (56)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MIAMI Offense1547% (83)49% (10)22.430.9254.68.211.431 (61)11 (108).43 (12)1.5 (80)26% (7)32% (42).37 (42)5% (45)2.1 (58)
SMU Defense1355% (130)43% (90) - - - - - - 18 (6).19 (43)1.5 (32)32% (57)33% (109).29 (68)8% (7)1.9 (44)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MIAMI Defense1557% (134)37% (25) - - - - - - 16 (55).13 (18)1.5 (24)36% (14)28% (55).2 (27)8% (14)1.9 (29)
SMU Offense1355% (20)44% (39)23.535.4283.1812.126 (14)13 (108).4 (23)1.6 (37)32% (72)32% (47).39 (37)7% (114)2.1 (34)

Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 25.83  #6
Miami's Offense Rating: 24.47  #13
Miami's Defense Rating: -1.36  #6
2025 Talent Rating: 964.00  #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 55%  #9
Miami's 2025 Expected Record: 10.5 - 2.5
Miami's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 21.8  #8
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.4  #18
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.3  #10

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Miami: 25.83   SMU: 15.925

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Miami: 21.8   SMU: 13.4




SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 15.925  #29
SMU's Offense Rating: 19.12  #33
SMU's Defense Rating: 5.67  #26
2025 Talent Rating: 756.00  #64
Blue Chip Ratio: 9  #42
SMU's 2025 Expected Record: 8.7 - 4.3
SMU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.4  #27
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.8  #24
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9  #32

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Miami Scoring
Offense: 31.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 26
Defense: 14 PPG
Defense on Road: 15

Miami's 2025 Record
Record: 13 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 9
Record on Road: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Miami 28
SMU 20


Total Points: 49

Based on Last 4 Games
SMU 24
Miami 22

Total Points: 46

Based on Entire Season
Miami 24
SMU 24

Total Points: 48
SMU Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.2

SMU's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/01SMU26Miami20Miami -8.5SMU50.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
SMU110 Overs
Miami001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 00 - 01 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0

(#6) MIAMI at (#29) SMU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMIAMISMU
Net PPPPPP #11 #16
Power RatePwr #6 #29
SP+SP+ #8 #27
Perf GradeGrade #5 #20
OffenseOff #7 #36
DefenseDef #4 #20
Spec TeamsST #49 #60
TalentTal #16 #64
Blue ChipsBC% #9 #42
Miami Notes
(11/3) 9 trips into SMU territory only scored 20 pts
(11/2) Miami 4-11 under Mario in November+
(10/30) Ugly start vs Stanford, 35-0 in 2H. Def great
(10/30) QB C Beck looks hurt (elbow?) since L'ville game
(10/18) Is L'ville L same ole Miami? Something looked off
(10/17) Off awful, Beck 4 INT, 63 yds rush (2.6 ypc) in L
(9/20) Def awesome, DL may be best in CFB. Contender
(9/20) Beck awful vs Gators, Run Off tough and good
(8/22) TE Lofton a name to watch. Athletic, staff high
(8/20) WR1 Trader seems to be getting most buzz
(6/8) Strength coach resigned in June? Bad timing
(6/4) RBs Fletcher good, Lyle, Seldon (FCS) great depth
Miami Injury Report
SMU Notes
(10/31) Lashlee extended, will remain at SMU
(10/23) SMU has won 20 straight conference games (Wk 9)
(10/19) Big W @ Clemson, Run Def great, Jennings good
(10/19) SMU has not lost a reg season ACC game, 11-0
(9/20) Run Off bad, Jennings TOs & Def are major issues
(9/20) Def allowing 41.5 pts vs real competition, woof
(7/27) S Isaiah Nwokobia & Ahmaad Moses great duo
(6/14) Same HC, OC, DC, S&C coaches for 4 years
(5/28) OT PJ Williams a future star, 900+ snaps of A ball
(5/28) Def good LY, must replace a lot, 13 portal adds
(5/20) DL added 10 portals (7 from P4), both DEs back
(5/20) LB replaces most, 2 productive G5 portal adds
SMU Injury Report
Miami on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
MIAMI OffSMU Def
PPPOffPPP #28 #35
Perf GradePerf #7 #20
SuccessSuc #21 #52
ExplosiveExp #127 #27
PPAPPA #33 #9
PowerPwr #13 #26
SP+SP+ #18 #32
Pts POPPO #24 #12
HavocHav #11 #15
Miami Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
MIAMI OffSMU Def
Run GameRun #21 #13
Run SuccessRSuc #56 #18
Run ExplRExp #132 #4
PPAExp #80 #5
Run BlockR Blk #12 -
OL YdsOLY #34 #46
Stuff RateStuff #14 #23
TackleTak -  #14
Miami Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
MIAMI OffSMU Def
Pass GamePass #32 #29
Pass SuccessPSuc #10 #90
Pass ExplPExl #80 #32
PPAExp #12 #43
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #1 #26
F7 HavocF7 #5 #45
DB HavocDB #45 #7
SMU on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatSMU OffMIAMI Def
PPPDefPPP #5 #8
Perf GradePerf #36 #4
SuccessSuc #64 #15
ExplosiveExp #15 #80
PPAPPA #30 #14
PowerPwr #33 #6
SP+SP+ #24 #10
Pts POPPO #53 #2
HavocHav #99 #11
SMU Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
SMU OffMIAMI Def
Run GameRun #88 #14
Run SuccessRSuc #93 #10
Run ExplRExp #56 #92
PPAExp #70 #16
Run BlockR Blk #22 -
OL YdsOLY #75 #14
Stuff RateStuff #82 #37
TackleTak -  #120
SMU Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatSMU OffMIAMI Def
Pass GamePass #32 #15
Pass SuccessPSuc #39 #25
Pass ExplPExl #37 #24
PPAExp #23 #18
Pass Block/RushP Blk #6 #1
F7 HavocF7 #74 #12
DB HavocDB #114 #14
Program Comparison
SMU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

MIAMI 5 Year Profile: Improving Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Conditions: Rain
Temp: 55° - Wind: 7 mph
Rematch from Week 10
Miami 8.5 (50.5)
SMU won vs Miami this year (26-20)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
MIAMI's OC Shannon Dawson (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carson Beck (Tr)31943673%358129118.2
Emory Williams131968%156008.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Mark Fletcher Jr.1991080105.456
CharMar Brown (Tr)11945573.813
Girard Pringle Jr.6237546.038
Malachi Toney2311314.913
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Malachi Toney991089911.061
Keelan Marion (Tr)56740213.261
C.J. Daniels (Tr)46495710.847
Elija Lofton2321839.529

View Miami's Full Roster

MIAMI's DC Corey Hetherman (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mohamed Toure (Tr)733205
Jakobe Thomas (Tr)694406
Wesley Bissainthe633110
Zechariah Poyser (Tr)623115
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Akheem Mesidor60161150
Rueben Bain Jr.4613951
Keionte Scott (Tr)6113585
Ahmad Moten268540
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavier Lucas (Tr)452118
Jakobe Thomas (Tr)694406
Mohamed Toure (Tr)733205

SMU's OC Casey Woods (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kevin Jennings30045466%364126138.0
Charlie Fiser44100%30007.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
TJ Harden (Tr)17178794.653
Chris Johnson Jr. (Tr)6747947.187
Derrick McFall3518945.448
Dramekco Green259013.615
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Hudson61766612.670
Romello Brinson43638314.875
Yamir Knight (Tr)54637511.861
Matthew Hibner31436414.180

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Scott Symons (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ahmaad Moses1046103
Isaiah Nwokobia802007
Brandon Booker693142
Alex Kilgore604002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Smith5318941
Terry Webb (Tr)467624
Jeffrey M'Ba (Tr)428600
Cam Robertson5210543
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Miyazono445208
Isaiah Nwokobia802007
Deuce Harmon341017