Miami at SMU - 2025 Matchup Preview
Miami logo Miami Hurricanes at SMU MustangsSMU logo
Saturday, November 1st 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Gerald J. Ford Stadium - University Park, TX  (ACC)

 
Hurricanes (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (22 - 15)
Avg Score : 44 - 25 (41 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.6 - 2.4 (#12)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 3) (Avg: 5) (Bad: 2)
SMU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Miami -4   (SP+ MIAMI -5.5)

Projected Score: MIAMI: 35 - SMU: 31 (64)
MIAMI Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
MIAMI Travel: 1102 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Mustangs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (29 - 12)
Avg Score : 37 - 22 (44 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 3.5 (#21)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 3) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 4)
 
Miami's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 8/31 Miami vs Notre Dame+2.054.0
Sat 9/6 Miami vs Bethune-Cookman-43.5
Sat 9/13 Miami vs South Florida-22
Sat 9/20 Miami vs Florida-3
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Miami at Florida State-10
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 Miami vs Louisville-10.5
Sat 10/25 Miami vs Stanford-28
Sat 11/1 Miami at SMU-4
Sat 11/8 Miami vs Syracuse-17
Sat 11/15 Miami vs NC State-16.5
Sat 11/22 Miami at Virginia Tech-12
Sat 11/29 Miami at Pittsburgh-13

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Miami's Schedule
SMU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 SMU vs East Texas A&M-37
Sat 9/6 SMU vs Baylor-6.5
Sat 9/13 SMU at Missouri State-29.5
Sat 9/20 SMU at TCU+0.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 SMU vs Syracuse-10.5
Sat 10/11 SMU vs Stanford-22
Sat 10/18 SMU at Clemson+14.5
Sat 10/25 SMU at Wake Forest-18
Sat 11/1 SMU vs Miami+4
Sat 11/8 SMU at Boston College-9
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 SMU vs Louisville-4
Sat 11/29 SMU at California-13.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for SMU's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MIAMI#2 (.4)52% (1)43.956% (1)3.59 (4)16550% (7)3324.96 (2)#69 (.16)38% (26)25.338% (16)38% (40)4.02 (91)63.111.4
SMU#38 (.24)44% (53)36.544% (62)2.97 (83)16944% (45)2634.41 (25)#5 (.03)37% (9)22.139% (35)35% (10)3.09 (13)77.71.71.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MIAMI0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
SMU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MIAMI Offense1343.940.552.5%4.961254971653325.543%57%56%50%10%.4
SMU Defense1422.120.336.7%3.091.6 - - - - - 44%55%39%35%18%.03
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MIAMI Defense1325.330.838.1%4.021.4 - - - - - 45%55%38%38%18%.16
SMU Offense1436.543.744.1%4.411.7234321692634.451%49%44%44%15%.24

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Miami1330:1325.256%65%6.263.111.45.92.6129.7
SMU1428:2822.644%50%8.177.71.71.66.63.1331.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MIAMI Offense1343% (114)56% (1)30.1165.55.528 (25).32 (5)3.59 (4)90% (1)6% (3)0.95 (73)
SMU Defense1444% (9)39% (35) - - - - -.05 (2)2.72 (25)60% (10)11% (36)0.81 (6)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MIAMI Defense1345% (11)38% (16) - - - - .08 (49)2.6 (16)57% (4)11% (43)1.15 (125)
SMU Offense1451% (65)44% (62)38.3168.94.429 (18).12 (77)2.97 (83)70% (90)9% (49)0.93 (86)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MIAMI Offense1357% (20)50% (7)23.935.1331.69.513.938 (1)7 (26).47 (6)1.7 (26)27% (5)42% (1).69 (1)4% (15)2.3 (6)
SMU Defense1455% (124)35% (10) - - - - - - 16 (10).11 (17)1.7 (107)37% (7)27% (21).16 (12)7% (30)2.1 (96)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MIAMI Defense1355% (125)38% (40) - - - - - - 14 (23).23 (66)1.7 (113)36% (9)36% (123).45 (115)7% (34)2.1 (84)
SMU Offense1449% (70)44% (45)19.931.2262.98.413.228 (15)12 (85).37 (19)1.8 (11)33% (94)34% (34).47 (17)6% (69)2.3 (13)

Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 21.27 #14
Miami's Offense Rating: 29.55 #6
Miami's Defense Rating: 8.28 #29
2025 Talent Rating: 976.00 #14
Blue Chip Ratio: 48% #10
Miami's 2025 Expected Record: 9.6 - 2.4
Miami's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 18.8 #12
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 43.2 #1
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #44

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 823.53
Average Power Five Talent: 856.63
Average FBS Talent: 681.13

Power Ratings Matchup
Miami: 21.27   SMU: 16.12

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Miami: 18.8   SMU: 13.1




SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 16.12 #21
SMU's Offense Rating: 19.82 #37
SMU's Defense Rating: 5.68 #19
2025 Talent Rating: 776.00 #51
Blue Chip Ratio: 7 #44
SMU's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 3.5
SMU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.1 #20
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.2 #11
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #42

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 823.53
Average Power Five Talent: 856.63
Average FBS Talent: 681.13


Miami Scoring
Offense: 43.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 40.5
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.8

Miami's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Miami 35
SMU 31


Projected Total Points: 64
SMU Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.7
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.3

SMU's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
TeamWinsCoversO/U
SMU000 Overs
Miami000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#14) Miami Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 21.27 #14
Offense Rating: 29.55 #6
Defense Rating: 8.28 #29
Overall SP+ Rating: 18.8 #12
Offense SP+ Rating: 43.2 #1
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #44
Talent Rating: 976.00 #14
Blue Chip Ratio: 48% #10
Expected Record: 9.6 - 2.4

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
Great Offense Success Rate of 52%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.96 PPO
Great Run Success 56%
Great Pass Success 50%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 38%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.02 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Good Pass Def Success 38%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Miami Notes
(6/4) RBs Fletcher good, Lyle, Seldon (FCS) great depth
(5/23) DEs Bain + Mesidor is one of CFBs top units
(5/21) Def very talented, why so bad? DBs 7 portals
(5/21) ACC sched easy outside @ SMU, OOC hard
(5/21) QBs Beck (UGA) supposedly good to go summer
(5/21) OL one of CFBs best, 4/5 back. Deep, big
(5/3) Fr WR Malachi Toney is a playmaker, will play
(4/4) DE Bain a top 10 DE via PFF. Hurt LY
(4/4) OT Francis Mauigoa a top OT via PFF
(3/28) New DC Hetherman has 1 yr DC exp (Minn)
Miami     Ratings Matchup     SMU
Power #14
#21
Off #6
#37
Def #29
#19
Talent #14
#51
SP+ #12
#20
SP+ Off #1
#11
SP+ Def #44
#42

Weather Forecast
Playing in Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MIAMI | SMU
Depth Chart: MIAMI | SMU
Rosters: MIAMI | SMU
(#21) SMU Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 16.12 #21
Offense Rating: 19.82 #37
Defense Rating: 5.68 #19
Overall SP+ Rating: 13.1 #20
Offense SP+ Rating: 37.2 #11
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #42
Talent Rating: 776.00 #51
Blue Chip Ratio: 7 #44
Expected Record: 8.5 - 3.5

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.41 PPO
Avg Run Success 44%
Avg Pass Success 44%
Avg OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 37%
Great in Scoring Position 3.09 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Great Pass Def Success 35%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position


SMU Notes
(5/28) OT PJ Williams a future star, 900+ snaps of A ball
(5/28) Def good LY, must replace a lot, 13 portal adds
(5/20) DL added 10 portals (7 from P4), both DEs back
(5/20) LB replaces most, 2 productive G5 portal adds
(5/20) OL decent LY, 4 exp'd starters, 3 P4 portal adds
(5/20) Pass D really good LY, have #1 CB, good at S
(5/3) RBs rebuild. Soph McFall #1, good depth/potential
(5/3) WRs Hudson/Brinson top 2, Knight (JMU) slot
(5/2) S Isaiah Nwokobia rated top 10 S via PFF
(4/4) TE Maryland great weapon, top 10 PFF, hurt LY.


  
Miami's OC Shannon Dawson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carson Beck (Tr)29044865%348528127.8
Emory Williams162662%187117.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
CharMar Brown (Tr)2441181154.848
Mark Fletcher Jr.11260795.430
Jordan Lyle5440047.491
Keelan Marion (Tr)219624.618
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
C.J. Daniels (Tr)42480011.434
Tony Johnson (Tr)4945269.223
Keelan Marion (Tr)24346114.452
Alex Bauman (Tr)15171611.436

View Miami's Full Roster
Miami's DC Corey Hetherman
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zechariah Poyser (Tr)773008
Wesley Bissainthe595211
Kamal Bonner (Tr)567160
David Blay (Tr)4510620
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Blay (Tr)4510620
Akheem Mesidor329620
Rueben Bain Jr.236410
Wesley Bissainthe595211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zechariah Poyser (Tr)773008
Ethan O'Connor (Tr)301018
Charles Brantley (Tr)272007

SMU's OC Casey Woods
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kevin Jennings24838165%318923118.4
Tyler Van Dyke (Tr)436863%422106.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
TJ Harden (Tr)12450524.140
Kevin Jennings10135453.559
Derrick McFall2610624.117
Chris Johnson Jr. (Tr)63105.224
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Yamir Knight (Tr)52605411.668
Jordan Hudson39422510.842
TJ Harden (Tr)4036819.253
Matthew Hibner24368415.380

View SMU's Full Roster
SMU's DC Scott Symons
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Nwokobia953123
Robert Rahimi (Tr)826115
Zakye Barker (Tr)8112211
Ahmaad Moses646003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Smith319761
Cam Robertson296330
Jahkai Lang (Tr)122200
Zakye Barker (Tr)8112211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Deuce Harmon282006
Robert Rahimi (Tr)826115
Isaiah Nwokobia953123