NC State at Miami - 2025 Matchup Preview
NC State logo NC State Wolfpack at Miami Hurricanes(#4)Miami logo
Saturday, November 15th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Hard Rock Stadium - Miami Gardens, FL  (ACC)

 
Wolfpack (3 - 0) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (87 - 64)
Avg Score : 31 - 24 (34 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 4.2 (#45)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
MIAMI 2nd straight Home Game
NCST coming off BYE
MIAMI is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Miami -19.5   (SP+ MIAMI -15)

Projected Score: NCST: 18 - MIAMI: 37 (55)
MIAMI Win prob: 88% | Cover: 46%
NCST Travel: 686 miles
Hurricanes (3 - 0) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (22 - 15)
Avg Score : 40 - 13 (40 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.8 - 1.2 (#2)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 5) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
 
NC State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 NC State vs East Carolina-12.558.5W 24 - 17UN
Sat 9/6 NC State vs Virginia-3.053.0W 35 - 31OY
Thu 9/11 NC State at Wake Forest-7.552.5W 34 - 24OY
Sat 9/20 NC State at Duke+3.058.5
Sat 9/27 NC State vs Virginia Tech-16
Sat 10/4 NC State vs Campbell-32
Sat 10/11 NC State at Notre Dame+12.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 NC State at Pittsburgh+4.5
Sat 11/1 NC State vs Georgia Tech+1.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 NC State at Miami+19.5
Fri 11/21 NC State vs Florida State+8.5
Sat 11/29 NC State vs North Carolina-9.5

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 3, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for NC State's Schedule
Miami's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 8/31 Miami vs Notre Dame+2.553.5W 27 - 24UY
Sat 9/6 Miami vs Bethune-Cookman-54.50.0W 45 - 3ON
Sat 9/13 Miami vs South Florida-17.556.5W 49 - 12OY
Sat 9/20 Miami vs Florida-7.551.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Miami at Florida State-3.5
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 Miami vs Louisville-12
Sat 10/25 Miami vs Stanford-30
Sat 11/1 Miami at SMU-12
Sat 11/8 Miami vs Syracuse-22
Sat 11/15 Miami vs NC State-19.5
Sat 11/22 Miami at Virginia Tech-28.5
Sat 11/29 Miami at Pittsburgh-13

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Miami's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NCST#56 (.23)44% (67)3140% (95)2.53 (108)17748% (39)2404.39 (48)#96 (.19)35% (35)2430% (13)39% (63)3.19 (58)57.30.31
MIAMI#21 (.39)55% (15)40.352% (32)3.42 (31)17759% (8)3075.5 (13)#48 (.06)35% (33)1328% (9)41% (74)3.64 (72)56.70.72
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NCST#26 (.25)45% (36)44% (68)3.24 (36)13047% (20)2153.97 (61)#86 (.19)41% (59)39% (31)43% (87)3.78 (67)451.71.4
MIAMI#2 (.4)52% (1)56% (1)3.59 (4)16550% (7)3324.96 (2)#69 (.16)38% (26)38% (16)38% (40)4.02 (91)63.111.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NCST Offense3313443.8%4.390.3224161772404.755%45%40%48%18%.23
MIAMI Defense3131334.8%3.642 - - - - - 46%54%28%41%19%.06
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NCST Defense3242435%3.191 - - - - - 39%60%30%39%14%.19
MIAMI Offense340.340.355.2%5.50.7264841773075.150%50%52%59%9%.39

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
NC State332:3522.338%100%657.30.315.70.7128.9
Miami332:412652%50%6.356.70.726.32029.9
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NCST Offense355% (44)40% (95)37.7176.74.76 (49).08 (89)2.53 (108)60% (103)12% (117)1.08 (45)
MIAMI Defense346% (42)28% (9) - - - - -.2 (7)2.1 (14)50% (19)13% (33)0.91 (64)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NCST Defense339% (8)30% (13) - - - - .15 (103)2.2 (21)64% (51)8% (94)1.57 (133)
MIAMI Offense350% (74)52% (32)351775.110 (10).2 (47)3.42 (31)77% (45)4% (4)0.88 (90)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NCST Offense345% (91)48% (39)2129.7239.78.111.45 (54)1 (23).42 (39)1.5 (67)33% (93)32% (66).24 (92)5% (76)1.8 (92)
MIAMI Defense354% (97)41% (74) - - - - - - 3 (28).28 (93)1.5 (58)38% (21)26% (47).24 (62)6% (56)2 (69)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NCST Defense360% (131)39% (63) - - - - - - 3 (28).25 (78)1.6 (79)37% (26)32% (92).43 (103)5% (80)2.1 (84)
MIAMI Offense350% (59)59% (8)2532.3306.79.512.37 (23)2 (60).57 (18)1.4 (103)23% (13)35% (45).48 (43)5% (65)2.2 (48)

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 12.30 #46
NC State's Offense Rating: 17.47 #42
NC State's Defense Rating: 5.17 #56
2025 Talent Rating: 838.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #39
NC State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.8 - 4.2
NC State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.1 #56
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #40
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #65

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
NC State: 12.30   Miami: 28.43

SP+ Ratings Matchup
NC State: 5.1   Miami: 19.7




Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 28.43 #5
Miami's Offense Rating: 31.99 #2
Miami's Defense Rating: -2.73 #18
2025 Talent Rating: 964.00 #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 55 #9
Miami's 2025 Expected Record: 10.8 - 1.2
Miami's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 19.7 #10
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 42.1 #1
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #44

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


NC State Scoring
Offense: 31 PPG
Offense on Road: 34
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense on Road: 24

NC State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Miami 37
NC State 18


Total Points: 55

Miami Scoring
Offense: 40.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 40.3
Defense: 13 PPG
Defense at Home: 13

Miami's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202311/04NC State20Miami6NC StateMiami -6.5NC State44.0Under
202110/23Miami31NC State30MiamiNC State -3.5Miami54.5Over
202011/06NC State41Miami44MiamiMiami -10NC State57.5Over
201611/19NC State13Miami27MiamiMiami -2.5Miami52.0Under
201209/29Miami44NC State37Miami
200811/29NC State38Miami28NC State
200711/03Miami16NC State19NC State
200410/23NC State31Miami45Miami
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Miami522 Overs
NC State322 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 43 - 10 - 03 - 1
Road Teams4 - 41 - 31 - 30 - 0

(#46) NC State Info
Power Rating: 12.30 #46
Offense Rating: 17.47 #42
Defense Rating: 5.17 #56
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.1 #56
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #40
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #65
Talent Rating: 838.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #39
Expected Record: 7.8 - 4.2

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 44%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.39 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Good Pass Success 48%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 35%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.19 PPO
Great Run Def Success 30%
Avg Pass Def Success 39%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

NC State has lost 6 straight
NC State has lost 3 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 0 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

NC State Notes
(9/11) CJ Bailey is a weapon, holds ball long at times
(9/11) Tackling is an issue, Def very inconsistent
(8/29) Run Def great vs ECU, run off a big concern
(7/28) Off only 5 portals, 3 OL & 2 TE, good sign?
(5/29) Same 3-3-5 Def, added 4 DE's (G5) for rush
(5/29) DB exp is mostly portal adds, LBs OK but depth?
(5/29) Tons of close lines, lots of variance in '25
(5/29) New OC is Kurt Roper, on staff since '19. Meh
(5/29) QB Bailey a good find as Fr in a bad '24 season
(5/29) WRs meh LY, some depth. TE Joly a weapon.

NC State Highlights
NC State in Undefeated

NC State has a good run defense (#13)
NC State Defensive Line is very good (#21)
NC State has a great TO Margin (#11)
NC State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

NC State Deficiencies
NC State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#133)
NC State does not Sack the QB (#122)
NC State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#127)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatMIAMINCST
OverallOver#4#18
OffenseOff#5#28
DefenseDef#10#28
Special TeamsST#88#57
PassingPass#40#11
RushingRush#15#27
Run BlockRBLK#8#73
Pass BlockPBLK#29#64
Route RunningWR Rt#5#23
TacklingTkl#41#48
Run DefenseR Def#2#36
Pass Rush DefPRush#10#28
Coverage DefCov#53#25

Previous Matchups
NC State beat Miami in 2023 (20-6)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Hard Rock Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: NCST | MIAMI
Depth Chart: NCST | MIAMI
Rosters: NCST | MIAMI
(#5) Miami Info
Power Rating: 28.43 #5
Offense Rating: 31.99 #2
Defense Rating: -2.73 #18
Overall SP+ Rating: 19.7 #10
Offense SP+ Rating: 42.1 #1
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #44
Talent Rating: 964.00 #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 55 #9
Expected Record: 10.8 - 1.2

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
Great Offense Success Rate of 55%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 5.5 PPO
Good Run Success 52%
Great Pass Success 59%
Good OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 35%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.64 PPO
Great Run Def Success 28%
Bad Pass Def Success 41%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Miami has lost 6 straight
Miami has lost 4 straight at Home
Record at home: 3 - 0 (2 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

Miami Notes
(8/20) WR1 Trader seems to be getting most buzz
(6/8) Strength coach resigned in June? Bad timing
(6/4) RBs Fletcher good, Lyle, Seldon (FCS) great depth
(5/23) DEs Bain + Mesidor is one of CFBs top units
(5/21) Def very talented, why so bad? DBs 7 portals
(5/21) QBs Beck (UGA) supposedly good to go summer
(5/21) OL one of CFBs best, 4/5 back. Deep, big
(5/3) Fr WR Malachi Toney is a playmaker, will play
(4/4) DE Bain a top 10 DE via PFF. Hurt LY
(4/4) OT Francis Mauigoa a top OT via PFF

Miami Highlights
Miami in Undefeated
Miami is Undefeated at Home
Miami is Undefeated vs Spread as Home Underdogs

Miami offense is efficent (#15)
Miami offense is good in red zone (#13)
Miami offense is good on 3rd downs
Miami has a good run defense (#9)
Miami Defensive Line is very good (#14)
Miami has a great TO Margin (#28)
Miami defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Miami Deficiencies


  
NC State's OC Kurt Roper
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
CJ Bailey638971%719518.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Daylan Smothers6338036.057
CJ Bailey218434.030
Jayden Scott196603.513
Will Wilson4902.34
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Wesley Grimes9173119.248
Noah Rogers8109113.627
Terrell Anderson9107011.930
Teddy Hoffmann699016.550

View NC State's Full Roster
NC State's DC D. J. Eliot
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sean Brown314021
Caden Fordham262101
Brody Barnhardt151000
Cian Slone (Tr)141030
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caden Fordham262101
Travali Price52110
Sean Brown314021
Coleson Fields10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devon Marshall130002
Sean Brown314021
Sabastian Harsh (Tr)144031

Miami's OC Shannon Dawson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carson Beck (Tr)658378%812729.8
Emory Williams101471%108007.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Mark Fletcher Jr.4227246.538
CharMar Brown (Tr)3111123.611
Girard Pringle Jr.74826.930
Chris Wheatley-Humphrey73304.713
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Malachi Toney18228112.728
C.J. Daniels (Tr)14175312.540
Keelan Marion (Tr)10117011.736
Tony Johnson (Tr)384028.051

View Miami's Full Roster
Miami's DC Corey Hetherman
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rueben Bain Jr.153201
Akheem Mesidor133200
Raul Aguirre Jr.100000
Jakobe Thomas (Tr)100000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Akheem Mesidor133200
Rueben Bain Jr.153201
Ahmad Moten92100
Booker Pickett31100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
OJ Frederique Jr.40002
Keionte Scott (Tr)63012
Chase Smith80001