NC State at Miami - 2025 Matchup Preview
NC State logo NC State Wolfpack at Miami HurricanesMiami logo
Saturday, November 15th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Hard Rock Stadium - Miami Gardens, FL  (ACC)

 
Wolfpack (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (87 - 64)
Avg Score : 29 - 30 (31 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.9 - 5.1 (#55)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 5) (Bad: 4)
MIAMI 2nd straight Home Game
NCST coming off BYE
MIAMI is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Miami -16.5   (SP+ MIAMI -14)

Projected Score: NCST: 24 - MIAMI: 40 (64)
MIAMI Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
NCST Travel: 686 miles
Hurricanes (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (22 - 15)
Avg Score : 44 - 25 (48 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.6 - 2.4 (#12)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 3) (Avg: 5) (Bad: 2)
 
NC State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 NC State vs East Carolina-12.556.5
Sat 9/6 NC State vs Virginia-8.5
Thu 9/11 NC State at Wake Forest-10.5
Sat 9/20 NC State at Duke+2
Sat 9/27 NC State vs Virginia Tech-3
Sat 10/4 NC State vs Campbell-29.5
Sat 10/11 NC State at Notre Dame+22.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 NC State at Pittsburgh+1
Sat 11/1 NC State vs Georgia Tech-1.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 NC State at Miami+16.5
Fri 11/21 NC State vs Florida State-1
Sat 11/29 NC State vs North Carolina-6.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 5, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 5, Bad 3, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for NC State's Schedule
Miami's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 8/31 Miami vs Notre Dame+3.553.5
Sat 9/6 Miami vs Bethune-Cookman-43.5
Sat 9/13 Miami vs South Florida-22
Sat 9/20 Miami vs Florida-3
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Miami at Florida State-10
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 Miami vs Louisville-10.5
Sat 10/25 Miami vs Stanford-28
Sat 11/1 Miami at SMU-4
Sat 11/8 Miami vs Syracuse-17
Sat 11/15 Miami vs NC State-16.5
Sat 11/22 Miami at Virginia Tech-12
Sat 11/29 Miami at Pittsburgh-13

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Miami's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NCST#26 (.25)45% (36)28.544% (68)3.24 (36)13047% (20)2153.97 (61)#86 (.19)41% (59)30.239% (31)43% (87)3.78 (67)451.71.4
MIAMI#2 (.4)52% (1)43.956% (1)3.59 (4)16550% (7)3324.96 (2)#69 (.16)38% (26)25.338% (16)38% (40)4.02 (91)63.111.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NCST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MIAMI0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NCST Offense1328.530.845.1%3.971.7193451302154.447%52%44%47%19%.25
MIAMI Defense1325.31738.1%4.021.4 - - - - - 45%55%38%38%18%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NCST Defense1330.235.540.9%3.781.4 - - - - - 47%53%39%43%20%.19
MIAMI Offense1343.947.852.5%4.961254971653325.543%57%56%50%10%.4

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
NC State1329:1018.637%56%4.8451.71.46.21.8228.9
Miami1330:1325.256%65%6.263.111.45.92.6129.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NCST Offense1347% (89)44% (68)29.6130.34.421 (59).15 (56)3.24 (36)69% (92)13% (127)0.98 (59)
MIAMI Defense1345% (11)38% (16) - - - - .08 (49)2.6 (16)57% (4)11% (43)1.15 (125)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NCST Defense1347% (33)39% (31) - - - - .2 (111)3.07 (83)76% (86)12% (24)1.28 (134)
MIAMI Offense1343% (114)56% (1)30.1165.55.528 (25).32 (5)3.59 (4)90% (1)6% (3)0.95 (73)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NCST Offense1352% (48)47% (20)18.228.1214.87.711.818 (68)12 (85).36 (24)1.6 (45)30% (35)36% (24).57 (5)6% (83)2.2 (19)
MIAMI Defense1355% (125)38% (40) - - - - - - 14 (23).23 (66)1.7 (113)36% (9)36% (123).45 (115)7% (34)2.1 (84)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NCST Defense1353% (106)43% (87) - - - - - - 8 (93).19 (47)1.5 (22)33% (49)30% (65).33 (83)8% (16)2.3 (120)
MIAMI Offense1357% (20)50% (7)23.935.1331.69.513.938 (1)7 (26).47 (6)1.7 (26)27% (5)42% (1).69 (1)4% (15)2.3 (6)

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 7.01 #45
NC State's Offense Rating: 18.52 #40
NC State's Defense Rating: 11.51 #48
2025 Talent Rating: 814.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #37
NC State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.9 - 5.1
NC State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.8 #42
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #36
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.4 #54

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 828.59
Average Power Five Talent: 860.18
Average FBS Talent: 682.68

Power Ratings Matchup
NC State: 7.01   Miami: 22.535

SP+ Ratings Matchup
NC State: 4.8   Miami: 18.8




Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 22.535 #14
Miami's Offense Rating: 29.55 #6
Miami's Defense Rating: 8.28 #29
2025 Talent Rating: 976.00 #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 48 #11
Miami's 2025 Expected Record: 9.6 - 2.4
Miami's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 18.8 #12
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 43.2 #1
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #44

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 828.59
Average Power Five Talent: 860.18
Average FBS Talent: 682.68


NC State Scoring
Offense: 28.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.8
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.5

NC State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Miami 40
NC State 24


Projected Total Points: 64
Miami Scoring
Offense: 43.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 47.8
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

Miami's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202311/04NC State20Miami6NC StateMiami -6.5NC State44.0Under
202110/23Miami31NC State30MiamiNC State -3.5Miami54.5Over
202011/06NC State41Miami44MiamiMiami -10NC State57.5Over
201611/19NC State13Miami27MiamiMiami -2.5Miami52.0Under
201209/29Miami44NC State37Miami
200811/29NC State38Miami28NC State
200711/03Miami16NC State19NC State
200410/23NC State31Miami45Miami
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Miami522 Overs
NC State322 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 43 - 10 - 03 - 1
Road Teams4 - 41 - 31 - 30 - 0

(#45) NC State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 7.01 #45
Offense Rating: 18.52 #40
Defense Rating: 11.51 #48
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.8 #42
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #36
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.4 #54
Talent Rating: 814.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #37
Expected Record: 6.9 - 5.1

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
Good Offense Success Rate of 45%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 3.97 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Great Pass Success 47%
Good OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.78 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Bad Pass Def Success 43%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


NC State Notes
(5/29) Same 3-3-5 Def, added 4 DE's (G5) for rush
(5/29) DB exp is mostly portal adds, LBs OK but depth?
(5/29) Tons of close lines, lots of variance in '25
(5/29) New OC is Kurt Roper, on staff since '19. Meh
(5/29) QB Bailey a good find as Fr in a bad '24 season
(5/29) WRs meh LY, some depth. TE Joly a weapon.
(5/29) OL returns 2/5, 3 portals. OTs decent, IOL ?
(5/29) Def was bad LY, 13 portal adds, lots of ??
(3/19) RB Smoothers back, depth/playmakers?
(3/19) DC Eliot journeyman with ? success
NC State     Ratings Matchup     Miami
Power #45
#14
Off #40
#6
Def #48
#29
Talent #43
#15
SP+ #42
#12
SP+ Off #36
#1
SP+ Def #54
#44

Previous Matchups
NC State beat Miami in 2023 (20-6)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Hard Rock Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: NCST | MIAMI
Depth Chart: NCST | MIAMI
Rosters: NCST | MIAMI
(#14) Miami Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 22.535 #14
Offense Rating: 29.55 #6
Defense Rating: 8.28 #29
Overall SP+ Rating: 18.8 #12
Offense SP+ Rating: 43.2 #1
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #44
Talent Rating: 976.00 #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 48 #11
Expected Record: 9.6 - 2.4

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
Great Offense Success Rate of 52%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.96 PPO
Great Run Success 56%
Great Pass Success 50%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 38%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.02 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Good Pass Def Success 38%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Miami Notes
(6/4) RBs Fletcher good, Lyle, Seldon (FCS) great depth
(5/23) DEs Bain + Mesidor is one of CFBs top units
(5/21) Def very talented, why so bad? DBs 7 portals
(5/21) ACC sched easy outside @ SMU, OOC hard
(5/21) QBs Beck (UGA) supposedly good to go summer
(5/21) OL one of CFBs best, 4/5 back. Deep, big
(5/3) Fr WR Malachi Toney is a playmaker, will play
(4/4) DE Bain a top 10 DE via PFF. Hurt LY
(4/4) OT Francis Mauigoa a top OT via PFF
(3/28) New DC Hetherman has 1 yr DC exp (Minn)


  
NC State's OC Kurt Roper
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
CJ Bailey19630265%241217108.0
Lex Thomas5863%65118.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Daylan Smothers8957166.453
CJ Bailey9927952.831
Lex Thomas1909.09
Coleson Fields3802.73
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Justin Joly43661415.440
Noah Rogers35478113.775
Wesley Grimes24319113.330
Daylan Smothers19263213.872

View NC State's Full Roster
NC State's DC D. J. Eliot
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sean Brown9593131
Jeremiah Johnson (Tr)691016
Brian Nelson II (Tr)532013
Caden Fordham504162
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cian Slone (Tr)4910850
Travali Price379430
Sean Brown9593131
Sabastian Harsh (Tr)419310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devon Marshall331007
Jeremiah Johnson (Tr)691016
Brian Nelson II (Tr)532013

Miami's OC Shannon Dawson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carson Beck (Tr)29044865%348528127.8
Emory Williams162662%187117.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
CharMar Brown (Tr)2441181154.848
Mark Fletcher Jr.11260795.430
Jordan Lyle5440047.491
Keelan Marion (Tr)219624.618
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
C.J. Daniels (Tr)42480011.434
Tony Johnson (Tr)4945269.223
Keelan Marion (Tr)24346114.452
Alex Bauman (Tr)15171611.436

View Miami's Full Roster
Miami's DC Corey Hetherman
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zechariah Poyser (Tr)773008
Wesley Bissainthe595211
Kamal Bonner (Tr)567160
David Blay (Tr)4510620
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Blay (Tr)4510620
Akheem Mesidor329620
Rueben Bain Jr.236410
Wesley Bissainthe595211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zechariah Poyser (Tr)773008
Ethan O'Connor (Tr)301018
Charles Brantley (Tr)272007