NC State at Miami - 2025 Matchup Preview
NC State logo   NC State Wolfpack at Miami Hurricanes  Miami logo
Saturday, November 15th 2025 (3:30 PM EST)
Miami -16.5 (54.5) (-700)  Open: -14.5
Miami 41 - NC State: 7  (ACC)

 
Wolfpack (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (87 - 64)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (23 - 40 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#64)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
MIAMI 2nd straight Home Game
NCST coming off BYE
MIAMI is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Miami -21  (SP+ MIAMI -16)

Projected Score: NCST: 17 - MIAMI: 38 (54)
MIAMI Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
NCST Travel: 686 miles
Hurricanes (13 - 3) (11 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (22 - 15)
Avg Score : 31 - 15 (36 - 12 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.5 - 2.5 (#16)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
 
NC State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 NC State vs East Carolina-12.558.5W 24 - 17UN
Sat 9/6 NC State vs Virginia-3.053.0W 35 - 31OY
Thu 9/11 NC State at Wake Forest-7.552.5W 34 - 24OY
Sat 9/20 NC State at Duke+3.057.5L 33 - 45ON
Sat 9/27 NC State vs Virginia Tech-10.057.5L 21 - 23UN
Sat 10/4 NC State vs Campbell-42.561.5W 56 - 10OY
Sat 10/11 NC State at Notre Dame+23.559.5L 7 - 36UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 NC State at Pittsburgh+5.552.5L 34 - 53ON
Sat 11/1 NC State vs Georgia Tech+4.558.5W 48 - 36OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 NC State at Miami+16.554.5L 7 - 41UN
Fri 11/21 NC State vs Florida State+7.058.5W 21 - 11UY
Sat 11/29 NC State vs North Carolina-7.048.5W 42 - 19OY
Fri 12/19 NC State vs Memphis-6.056.5W 31 - 7UY

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for NC State's Schedule
Miami's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 8/31 Miami vs Notre Dame+2.553.5W 27 - 24UY
Sat 9/6 Miami vs Bethune-Cookman-54.50.0W 45 - 3ON
Sat 9/13 Miami vs South Florida-17.556.5W 49 - 12OY
Sat 9/20 Miami vs Florida-8.551.5W 26 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Miami at Florida State-3.554.5W 28 - 22UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 Miami vs Louisville-10.549.5L 21 - 24UN
Sat 10/25 Miami vs Stanford-28.545.5W 42 - 7OY
Sat 11/1 Miami at SMU-8.550.5L 20 - 26UN
Sat 11/8 Miami vs Syracuse-28.547.5W 38 - 10ON
Sat 11/15 Miami vs NC State-16.554.5W 41 - 7UY
Sat 11/22 Miami at Virginia Tech-18.549.0W 34 - 17ON
Sat 11/29 Miami at Pittsburgh-6.549.5W 38 - 7UY
Sat 12/20 Miami at Texas A&M+3.048.5W 10 - 3UY
Wed 12/31 Miami vs Ohio State+7.539.5W 24 - 14UY
Thu 1/8 Miami vs Ole Miss-3.052.5W 31 - 27OY
Mon 1/19 Miami vs Indiana+7.546.5L 21 - 27OY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Miami's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NCST#26 (.25)45% (36)30.244% (68)3.24 (36)13047% (20)2153.97 (61)#86 (.19)41% (59)27.239% (31)43% (87)3.78 (67)451.71.4
MIAMI#2 (.4)52% (1)30.956% (1)3.59 (4)16550% (7)3324.96 (2)#69 (.16)38% (26)14.838% (16)38% (40)4.02 (91)63.111.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NCST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MIAMI0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NCST Offense1330.22345.1%3.971.7193451302154.447%52%44%47%19%.25
MIAMI Defense1314.811.838.1%4.021.4 - - - - - 45%55%38%38%18%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NCST Defense1327.239.840.9%3.781.4 - - - - - 47%53%39%43%20%.19
MIAMI Offense1330.936.152.5%4.961254971653325.543%57%56%50%10%.4

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
NC State1329:1018.637%56%4.8451.71.46.21.8228.9
Miami1330:1325.256%65%6.263.111.45.92.6129.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NCST Offense1347% (89)44% (68)29.6130.34.421 (59).15 (56)3.24 (36)69% (92)13% (127)0.98 (59)
MIAMI Defense1345% (11)38% (16) - - - - .08 (49)2.6 (16)57% (4)11% (43)1.15 (125)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NCST Defense1347% (33)39% (31) - - - - .2 (111)3.07 (83)76% (86)12% (24)1.28 (134)
MIAMI Offense1343% (114)56% (1)30.1165.55.528 (25).32 (5)3.59 (4)90% (1)6% (3)0.95 (73)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NCST Offense1352% (48)47% (20)18.228.1214.87.711.818 (68)12 (85).36 (24)1.6 (45)30% (35)36% (24).57 (5)6% (83)2.2 (19)
MIAMI Defense1355% (125)38% (40) - - - - - - 14 (23).23 (66)1.7 (113)36% (9)36% (123).45 (115)7% (34)2.1 (84)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NCST Defense1353% (106)43% (87) - - - - - - 8 (93).19 (47)1.5 (22)33% (49)30% (65).33 (83)8% (16)2.3 (120)
MIAMI Offense1357% (20)50% (7)23.935.1331.69.513.938 (1)7 (26).47 (6)1.7 (26)27% (5)42% (1).69 (1)4% (15)2.3 (6)

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 4.70  #52
NC State's Offense Rating: 18.37  #36
NC State's Defense Rating: 13.67  #67
2025 Talent Rating: 838.00  #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 10%  #39
NC State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.4 - 5.6
NC State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.8  #55
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4  #45
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.5  #64

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
NC State: 4.70   Miami: 25.765

SP+ Ratings Matchup
NC State: 4.8   Miami: 20.7




Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 25.765  #6
Miami's Offense Rating: 24.47  #13
Miami's Defense Rating: -1.36  #6
2025 Talent Rating: 964.00  #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 55  #9
Miami's 2025 Expected Record: 10.5 - 2.5
Miami's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 20.7  #9
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2  #22
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.3  #7

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


NC State Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 23
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.8

NC State's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
Miami 38
NC State 17


Projected Total Points: 54
Miami Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.1
Defense: 14.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 11.8

Miami's 2025 Record
Record: 13 - 3
Record vs Spread: 11 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 9
Record at home: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/15Miami41NC State7Miami -16.5Miami54.5Under
202311/04NC State20Miami6Miami -6.5NC State44.0Under
202110/23Miami31NC State30NC State -3.5Miami54.5Over
202011/06NC State41Miami44Miami -10NC State57.5Over
201611/19NC State13Miami27Miami -2.5Miami52.0Under
201209/29Miami44NC State37
200811/29NC State38Miami28
200711/03Miami16NC State19
200410/23NC State31Miami45
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Miami632 Overs
NC State323 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 44 - 11 - 03 - 1
Road Teams4 - 51 - 41 - 30 - 1

(#52) NCST at (#6) MIAMI
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNCSTMIAMI
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #52 #6
SP+SP+ #55 #9
Perf GradeGrade #75 #5
OffenseOff #52 #7
DefenseDef #89 #4
Spec TeamsST #91 #49
TalentTal #43 #16
Blue ChipsBC% #39 #9
NC State Notes
(11/21) Fr QB W Wilson got designed runs in FSU game
(11/5) RB Jayden Scott (Fr) huge vs GT. Name to watch
(10/12) Def really beat up & can't compete. Off regressing
(10/9) DB injury issues, nickel down to 5th option (ND wk)
(9/30) Run Def mauled by VT? Run Off awful, horrific loss
(9/30) Things could go south in a hurry for this program
(9/20) Def horrible, torched by Duke. Bailey TOs killed
(9/11) Run Off good vs Wake, Def bad but rallied
(9/11) CJ Bailey is a weapon, holds ball long at times
(9/11) Tackling is an issue, Def very inconsistent
(8/29) Run Def great vs ECU, run off a big concern
(7/28) Off only 5 portals, 3 OL & 2 TE, good sign?
NC State Injury Report
Miami Notes
(11/3) 9 trips into SMU territory only scored 20 pts
(11/2) Miami 4-11 under Mario in November+
(10/30) Ugly start vs Stanford, 35-0 in 2H. Def great
(10/30) QB C Beck looks hurt (elbow?) since L'ville game
(10/18) Is L'ville L same ole Miami? Something looked off
(10/17) Off awful, Beck 4 INT, 63 yds rush (2.6 ypc) in L
(9/20) Def awesome, DL may be best in CFB. Contender
(9/20) Beck awful vs Gators, Run Off tough and good
(8/22) TE Lofton a name to watch. Athletic, staff high
(8/20) WR1 Trader seems to be getting most buzz
(6/8) Strength coach resigned in June? Bad timing
(6/4) RBs Fletcher good, Lyle, Seldon (FCS) great depth
Miami Injury Report
NC State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
NCST OffMIAMI Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #52 #4
SuccessSuc #36 #26
ExplosiveExp #32 #130
PPAPPA #26 #69
PowerPwr #36 #6
SP+SP+ #45 #7
Pts POPPO #61 #91
HavocHav #122 #39
NC State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
NCST OffMIAMI Def
Run GameRun #61 #14
Run SuccessRSuc #68 #16
Run ExplRExp #59 #125
PPAExp #56 #49
Run BlockR Blk #52 -
OL YdsOLY #36 #16
Stuff RateStuff #37 #7
TackleTak -  #120
NC State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
NCST OffMIAMI Def
Pass GamePass #95 #15
Pass SuccessPSuc #20 #40
Pass ExplPExl #45 #113
PPAExp #24 #66
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #46 #1
F7 HavocF7 #127 #43
DB HavocDB #83 #34
Miami on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatMIAMI OffNCST Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #7 #89
SuccessSuc #1 #59
ExplosiveExp #22 #113
PPAPPA #2 #86
PowerPwr #13 #67
SP+SP+ #22 #64
Pts POPPO #2 #67
HavocHav #4 #16
Miami Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
MIAMI OffNCST Def
Run GameRun #21 #70
Run SuccessRSuc #1 #31
Run ExplRExp #73 #134
PPAExp #5 #111
Run BlockR Blk #12 -
OL YdsOLY #4 #83
Stuff RateStuff #2 #105
TackleTak -  #74
Miami Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatMIAMI OffNCST Def
Pass GamePass #32 #97
Pass SuccessPSuc #7 #87
Pass ExplPExl #26 #22
PPAExp #6 #47
Pass Block/RushP Blk #1 #65
F7 HavocF7 #3 #24
DB HavocDB #15 #16
Program Comparison
MIAMI 5 Year Profile: Improving Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

NCST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Hard Rock Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 12
Miami -16.5 (54.5)
Miami won vs NC State this year (41-7)

Previous Matchups
Miami beat NC State last year (41-7)
NC State beat Miami in 2023 (20-6)

  
NCST's OC Kurt Roper (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
CJ Bailey27339769%31052597.8
Lex Thomas2729%18002.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Daylan Smothers16093965.965
Jayden Scott10659545.669
CJ Bailey8921562.430
Will Wilson43146103.416
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Terrell Anderson39629516.175
Justin Joly49489710.059
Wesley Grimes31458314.848
Noah Rogers31413213.348

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC D. J. Eliot (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caden Fordham14310443
Kenny Soares Jr. (Tr)804162
Asaad Brown Jr.640002
Cian Slone (Tr)6272161
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tra Thomas (Tr)246450
Caden Fordham14310443
Travali Price225441
Sabastian Harsh (Tr)4183133
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devon Marshall5000115
Jackson Vick452006
Brian Nelson II (Tr)291006

MIAMI's OC Shannon Dawson (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carson Beck (Tr)33846872%381330128.1
Emory Williams131968%156008.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Mark Fletcher Jr.2161192125.557
CharMar Brown (Tr)12246073.813
Girard Pringle Jr.6237546.038
Malachi Toney2311314.913
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Malachi Toney10912111011.161
Keelan Marion (Tr)57746213.161
C.J. Daniels (Tr)50557711.147
Elija Lofton2321839.529

View Miami's Full Roster

MIAMI's DC Corey Hetherman (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mohamed Toure (Tr)843216
Jakobe Thomas (Tr)754406
Wesley Bissainthe713110
Zechariah Poyser (Tr)683115
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Akheem Mesidor63181360
Rueben Bain Jr.54161051
Keionte Scott (Tr)6413585
Ahmad Moten319540
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavier Lucas (Tr)452118
OJ Frederique Jr.190007
Mohamed Toure (Tr)843216