Florida at Ole Miss - 2025 Matchup Preview
Florida logo   Florida Gators at Ole Miss Rebels  Ole Miss logo
Saturday, November 15th 2025 (7:00 PM EST)
Ole Miss -10.5 (53.5) (-440)  Open: -7.5
Ole Miss 34 - Florida: 24  (SEC)

 
Gators (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Billy Napier (18 - 19)
Avg Score : 22 - 24 (13 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
FLA 2nd straight Road Game
MISS 3rd straight Home Game
MISS is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Ole Miss -18  (SP+ MISS -21)

Projected Score: FLA: 17 - MISS: 35 (52)
MISS Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
FLA Travel: 532 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Rebels (13 - 2) (9 - 6 - 0)
Coach Lane Kiffin (43 - 18)
Avg Score : 37 - 21 (39 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 12 - 1 (#3)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Florida's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Florida vs Long Island University-46.556.5W 55 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Florida vs South Florida-18.558.0L 16 - 18UN
Sat 9/13 Florida at LSU+5.547.5L 10 - 20UN
Sat 9/20 Florida at Miami+8.551.5L 7 - 26UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Florida vs Texas+4.542.5W 29 - 21OY
Sat 10/11 Florida at Texas A&M+7.047.5L 17 - 34ON
Sat 10/18 Florida vs Mississippi State-9.550.5W 23 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Florida vs Georgia+7.050.5L 20 - 24UY
Sat 11/8 Florida at Kentucky-4.544.5L 7 - 38ON
Sat 11/15 Florida at Ole Miss+10.553.5L 24 - 34OY
Sat 11/22 Florida vs Tennessee+3.557.5L 11 - 31UN
Sat 11/29 Florida vs Florida State+1.548.5W 40 - 21OY

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida's Schedule
Ole Miss's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Ole Miss vs Georgia State-38.562.5W 63 - 7OY
Sat 9/6 Ole Miss at Kentucky-8.051.5W 30 - 23ON
Sat 9/13 Ole Miss vs Arkansas-3.560.5W 41 - 35OY
Sat 9/20 Ole Miss vs Tulane-12.561.5W 45 - 10UY
Sat 9/27 Ole Miss vs LSU-2.557.5W 24 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Ole Miss vs Washington State-33.558.5W 24 - 21UN
Sat 10/18 Ole Miss at Georgia+7.556.5L 35 - 43ON
Sat 10/25 Ole Miss at Oklahoma+5.552.5W 34 - 26OY
Sat 11/1 Ole Miss vs South Carolina-12.555.5W 30 - 14UY
Sat 11/8 Ole Miss vs The Citadel-51.563.5W 49 - 0UN
Sat 11/15 Ole Miss vs Florida-10.553.5W 34 - 24ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28 Ole Miss at Mississippi State-7.562.5W 38 - 19UY
Sat 12/20 Ole Miss vs Tulane-17.557.5W 41 - 10UY
Thu 1/1 Ole Miss vs Georgia+6.053.5W 39 - 34OY
Thu 1/8 Ole Miss vs Miami+3.052.5L 27 - 31ON

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg: 3, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ole Miss's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FLA#72 (.18)43% (64)21.645% (54)3.04 (66)16441% (82)2264.17 (46)#53 (.14)44% (95)2449% (118)39% (44)3.12 (14)541.41.9
MISS#4 (.34)47% (19)36.944% (76)3.02 (72)16451% (3)3174 (58)#6 (.04)35% (3)21.135% (6)36% (13)2.98 (8)68.50.91.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FLA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MISS0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FLA Offense1321.61343%4.171.4193891642264.654%46%45%41%16%.18
MISS Defense1321.115.635.3%2.981.6 - - - - - 47%53%35%36%25%.04
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FLA Defense132430.443.9%3.121.9 - - - - - 51%49%49%39%18%.14
MISS Offense1336.93947.4%40.9234811643174.650%50%44%51%15%.34

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Florida1328:3519.239%47%5.9541.41.96.43.1130.2
Ole Miss1326:0422.741%59%6.868.50.91.68.94.1029.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FLA Offense1354% (42)45% (54)35.4163.74.626 (36).14 (63)3.04 (66)79% (27)9% (56)0.94 (82)
MISS Defense1347% (25)35% (6) - - - - -.04 (4)2.49 (7)74% (71)16% (1)0.88 (23)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FLA Defense1351% (71)49% (118) - - - - .13 (73)3.06 (78)67% (29)11% (37)0.84 (10)
MISS Offense1350% (75)44% (76)35.8164.24.627 (30).15 (58)3.02 (72)71% (85)10% (68)1.09 (26)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FLA Offense1346% (91)41% (82)1626.1225.78.714.118 (68)14 (115).25 (73)1.6 (48)31% (54)28% (105).22 (107)7% (90)1.8 (118)
MISS Defense1353% (115)36% (13) - - - - - - 11 (52).12 (20)1.6 (85)37% (5)23% (1).1 (3)8% (3)2.1 (68)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FLA Defense1349% (67)39% (44) - - - - - - 14 (23).16 (34)1.6 (87)31% (86)37% (124).42 (108)7% (43)2 (58)
MISS Offense1350% (59)51% (3)20.530.5317.210.415.427 (20)6 (10).53 (3)1.6 (46)29% (28)38% (7).63 (2)5% (54)2.3 (12)

Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 11.89  #33
Florida's Offense Rating: 17.44  #41
Florida's Defense Rating: 5.55  #25
2025 Talent Rating: 976.00  #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 52%  #12
Florida's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Florida's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.5  #63
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5  #89
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.6  #43

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida: 11.89   Ole Miss: 25.58

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida: 3.5   Ole Miss: 24.0




Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: 25.58  #9
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: 26.65  #7
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: 4.49  #21
2025 Talent Rating: 870.00  #33
Blue Chip Ratio: 40  #18
Ole Miss's 2025 Expected Record: 12.0 - 1.0
Ole Miss's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.0  #7
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.4  #3
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.3  #20

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Florida Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 13
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.4

Florida's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Ole Miss 35
Florida 17


Projected Total Points: 52
Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 36.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 39
Defense: 21.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.6

Ole Miss's 2025 Record
Record: 13 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 7
Record at home: 9 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/15Ole Miss34Florida24Ole Miss -10.5Florida53.5Over
202411/23Florida24Ole Miss17Ole Miss -13Florida57.5Under
202009/26Ole Miss35Florida51Florida -13.5Florida59.5Over
201510/03Florida38Ole Miss10Ole Miss -6.5Florida50.5Under
200809/27Florida30Ole Miss31
200709/22Ole Miss24Florida30
200310/04Florida17Ole Miss20
200210/05Ole Miss17Florida14
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Ole Miss402 Overs
Florida442 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 42 - 20 - 12 - 1
Road Teams4 - 42 - 21 - 21 - 0

(#33) FLA at (#9) MISS
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatFLAMISS
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #33 #9
SP+SP+ #63 #7
Perf GradeGrade #49 #12
OffenseOff #51 #9
DefenseDef #62 #41
Spec TeamsST #86 #18
TalentTal #15 #33
Blue ChipsBC% #12 #18
Florida Notes
(12/6) Jon Sumrall won 3 conf titles in 4 years at Tulane
(12/4) Hired Buster Faulkner (GT OC) as OC. Great Hire
(12/2) Hired Brad White at DC, was DC at UK '19-'25
(11/30) Hired Jon Sumrall (Tulane). Good hire for Gators
(11/16) Gators fought hard, Off no showed 2H vs Ole Miss
(11/9) Have the Gators quit? Killed by Kentucky, yikes
(11/6) Injury report long vs UK. Motivation ?'s now
(11/2) WR D Wilson is out for the season (foot)
(10/19) Napier fired, WR coach Billy Gonzales interim
(10/12) Napier now 0-14 vs ranked teams on the road
(10/6) OG'd Texas by 100 yds, held UT to 3-11 on 3rd down
(10/6) Who is UF? Great def vs UT, Fr WR D Wilson a threat
Florida Injury Report
Ole Miss Notes
(12/9) Hired OC John David Baker (ECU). Decent hire
(12/1) Hired DC Pete Golding after Kiffin left for LSU
(10/19) Def torched by UGA, 500 yds. Run Def concerning
(9/28) Huge W vs LSU, Def great, Off nearly 500 yds.
(9/28) Penalties and TOs are an issue and could cost 'em
(9/24) QB Chambliss starting vs LSU, has played well
(9/20) Killed Tulane, Rebs better than I thought. Threat
(9/20) Run Off meh besides Chambliss, who's a great QB
(9/15) W/ Simmons injury, Chambliss best QB?
(9/14) QB2 Chambliss a baller, Def is bad, Flag issues
(7/28) Portal TE Hasz will miss most of '25. Big blow
(6/6) WR added 5 portals, still a top 10 unit via PFF
Ole Miss Injury Report
Florida on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
FLA OffMISS Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #51 #41
SuccessSuc #64 #3
ExplosiveExp #93 #78
PPAPPA #72 #6
PowerPwr #41 #21
SP+SP+ #89 #20
Pts POPPO #46 #8
HavocHav #68 #1
Florida Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
FLA OffMISS Def
Run GameRun #34 #18
Run SuccessRSuc #54 #6
Run ExplRExp #82 #23
PPAExp #63 #4
Run BlockR Blk #13 -
OL YdsOLY #66 #7
Stuff RateStuff #77 #19
TackleTak -  #81
Florida Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
FLA OffMISS Def
Pass GamePass #86 #67
Pass SuccessPSuc #82 #13
Pass ExplPExl #48 #85
PPAExp #73 #20
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #36 #85
F7 HavocF7 #56 #1
DB HavocDB #90 #3
Ole Miss on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatMISS OffFLA Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #9 #62
SuccessSuc #19 #95
ExplosiveExp #8 #32
PPAPPA #4 #53
PowerPwr #7 #25
SP+SP+ #3 #43
Pts POPPO #58 #14
HavocHav #54 #36
Ole Miss Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MISS OffFLA Def
Run GameRun #14 #47
Run SuccessRSuc #76 #118
Run ExplRExp #26 #10
PPAExp #58 #73
Run BlockR Blk #94 -
OL YdsOLY #72 #78
Stuff RateStuff #92 #84
TackleTak -  #11
Ole Miss Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatMISS OffFLA Def
Pass GamePass #14 #80
Pass SuccessPSuc #3 #44
Pass ExplPExl #46 #87
PPAExp #3 #34
Pass Block/RushP Blk #35 #98
F7 HavocF7 #68 #37
DB HavocDB #54 #43
Program Comparison
MISS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'25 Profile: Remains Title Contenders

FLA 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 12
Ole Miss -10.5 (53.5)
Ole Miss won vs Florida this year (34-24)

Previous Matchups
Ole Miss beat Florida last year (34-24)
Florida beat Ole Miss in 2024 (24-17)

  
FLA's OC Rob Sale (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
D.J. Lagway21333763%226416146.7
Tramell Jones Jr.213560%191205.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jadan Baugh220117085.326
D.J. Lagway7113611.938
KD Daniels2812014.316
Ja'Kobi Jackson279803.627
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Vernell Brown III40524013.160
J.Michael Sturdivant (Tr)27406315.057
Hayden Hansen3025428.528
Eugene Wilson2723938.940

View Florida's Full Roster

FLA's DC Ron Roberts (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Myles Graham767274
Bryce Thornton563156
Jordan Castell540020
Aaron Chiles523111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Woods275431
Kamran James445332
Brendan Bett (Tr)404310
Myles Graham767274
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryce Thornton563156
Myles Graham767274
J'Vari Flowers171004

MISS's OC Charlie Weis Jr. (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Trinidad Chambliss (Tr)29444566%39372238.8
Austin Simmons457560%744459.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kewan Lacy (Tr)3061567245.173
Trinidad Chambliss (Tr)13352784.041
Logan Diggs3318945.751
Damien Taylor (Tr)2813024.620
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Harrison Wallace III (Tr)61934415.355
De'Zhaun Stribling (Tr)55811614.775
Deuce Alexander (Tr)44684215.588
Cayden Lee44635314.462

View Ole Miss's Full Roster

MISS's DC Pete Golding (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Dottery986212
Suntarine Perkins81135125
Wydett Williams (Tr)731009
Kamarion Franklin6995143
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Princewill Umanmielen (Tr)45139131
Kamarion Franklin6995143
William Echoles6812565
Suntarine Perkins81135125
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Wydett Williams (Tr)731009
William Echoles6812565
Kapena Gushiken (Tr)551015