Florida at Ole Miss - 2025 Matchup Preview
Florida logo Florida Gators at Ole Miss RebelsOle Miss logo
Saturday, November 15th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium - Oxford, MS  (FLEX: 3:30 - 4:30pm OR 6 - 8pm ET start)

 
Gators (2 - 4) (2 - 4 - 0)
Coach Billy Napier (18 - 19)
Avg Score : 22 - 20 (11 - 27 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.9 - 7.1 (#99)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 3) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
FLA 2nd straight Road Game
MISS 3rd straight Home Game
MISS is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Ole Miss -11  (SP+ MISS -11)

Projected Score: FLA: 19 - MISS: 30 (48)
MISS Win prob: 78% | Cover: 49%
FLA Travel: 532 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Rebels (6 - 0) (4 - 2 - 0)
Coach Lane Kiffin (43 - 18)
Avg Score : 38 - 19 (39 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.4 - 1.6 (#6)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Florida's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Florida vs Long Island University-46.556.5W 55 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Florida vs South Florida-18.558.0L 16 - 18UN
Sat 9/13 Florida at LSU+5.547.5L 10 - 20UN
Sat 9/20 Florida at Miami+8.551.5L 7 - 26UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Florida vs Texas+4.542.5W 29 - 21OY
Sat 10/11 Florida at Texas A&M+7.047.5L 17 - 34ON
Sat 10/18 Florida vs Mississippi State-9.550.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Florida vs Georgia+6.5
Sat 11/8 Florida at Kentucky-11
Sat 11/15 Florida at Ole Miss+11
Sat 11/22 Florida vs Tennessee+4.5
Sat 11/29 Florida vs Florida State-3.5

Total: Elite: 7, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida's Schedule
Ole Miss's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Ole Miss vs Georgia State-38.562.5W 63 - 7OY
Sat 9/6 Ole Miss at Kentucky-8.051.5W 30 - 23ON
Sat 9/13 Ole Miss vs Arkansas-3.560.5W 41 - 35OY
Sat 9/20 Ole Miss vs Tulane-12.561.5W 45 - 10UY
Sat 9/27 Ole Miss vs LSU-2.557.5W 24 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Ole Miss vs Washington State-33.558.5W 24 - 21UN
Sat 10/18 Ole Miss at Georgia+7.554.5
Sat 10/25 Ole Miss at Oklahoma+4
Sat 11/1 Ole Miss vs South Carolina-16
Sat 11/8 Ole Miss vs The Citadel-48.5
Sat 11/15 Ole Miss vs Florida-11
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28 Ole Miss at Mississippi State-8

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ole Miss's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FLA#100 (.14)41% (92)22.346% (54)3.11 (50)12138% (108)2274.21 (56)#47 (.12)38% (26)19.836% (23)39% (46)3.38 (39)47.31.71.2
MISS#26 (.31)50% (16)37.849% (29)2.8 (87)20551% (8)3114.74 (23)#63 (.16)41% (64)19.247% (114)35% (18)3.28 (31)73.81.30.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FLA#72 (.18)43% (64)45% (54)3.04 (66)16441% (82)2264.17 (46)#53 (.14)44% (95)49% (118)39% (44)3.12 (14)541.41.9
MISS#4 (.34)47% (19)44% (76)3.02 (72)16451% (3)3174 (58)#6 (.04)35% (3)35% (6)36% (13)2.98 (8)68.50.91.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FLA Offense622.311.341.3%4.211.7193481212273.944%55%46%38%17%.14
MISS Defense619.218.440.8%3.280.7 - - - - - 50%50%47%35%15%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FLA Defense619.826.737.6%3.381.2 - - - - - 52%48%36%39%15%.12
MISS Offense637.839.450%4.741.3265162053114.857%43%49%51%14%.31

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Florida631:4319.232%50%5.747.31.71.241.3027.3
Ole Miss628:2325.751%83%7.873.81.30.74.21.5027.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FLA Offense644% (108)46% (54)31120.83.93 (133).12 (75)3.11 (50)91% (3)11% (114)0.8 (124)
MISS Defense650% (71)47% (114) - - - - .25 (126)3.31 (128)74% (83)8% (117)1.09 (110)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FLA Defense652% (94)36% (23) - - - - .02 (30)2.64 (35)83% (123)8% (116)0.95 (66)
MISS Offense657% (25)49% (29)42.7205.34.816 (20).13 (66)2.8 (87)83% (18)8% (26)0.83 (117)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FLA Offense655% (31)38% (108)22.834.3227.36.61011 (49)7 (119).18 (101)1.5 (77)31% (64)25% (112).17 (110)5% (52)1.8 (103)
MISS Defense650% (70)35% (18) - - - - - - 3 (93).07 (18)1.5 (42)34% (32)29% (68).27 (65)8% (21)2 (84)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FLA Defense648% (44)39% (46) - - - - - - 5 (46).24 (66)1.6 (90)33% (56)23% (18).21 (40)7% (31)2.3 (124)
MISS Offense643% (110)51% (8)19.8313111015.711 (49)5 (77).58 (6)1.7 (24)26% (19)41% (6).56 (18)6% (74)2 (77)

Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 22.88  #25
Florida's Offense Rating: 18.05  #43
Florida's Defense Rating: -4.83  #16
2025 Talent Rating: 976.00  #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 52%  #12
Florida's 2025 Expected Record: 4.9 - 7.1
Florida's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8  #36
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.1  #61
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.5  #22

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida: 22.88   Ole Miss: 27.65

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida: 10.8   Ole Miss: 21.5




Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: 27.65  #12
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: 26.40  #14
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: -2.40  #25
2025 Talent Rating: 870.00  #33
Blue Chip Ratio: 40  #18
Ole Miss's 2025 Expected Record: 10.4 - 1.6
Ole Miss's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 21.5  #6
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7  #13
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.6  #16

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Florida Scoring
Offense: 22.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 11.3
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.7

Florida's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Ole Miss 30
Florida 19


Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
Ole Miss 30
Florida 17

Total Points: 47

Based on Entire Season
Ole Miss 31
Florida 18

Total Points: 49
Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 37.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 39.4
Defense: 19.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.4

Ole Miss's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/23Florida24Ole Miss17Ole Miss -13Florida57.5Under
202009/26Ole Miss35Florida51Florida -13.5Florida59.5Over
201510/03Florida38Ole Miss10Ole Miss -6.5Florida50.5Under
200809/27Florida30Ole Miss31
200709/22Ole Miss24Florida30
200310/04Florida17Ole Miss20
200210/05Ole Miss17Florida14
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Ole Miss301 Overs
Florida432 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 42 - 10 - 02 - 1
Road Teams4 - 31 - 21 - 20 - 0

(#25) FLA at (#12) MISS
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatFLAMISS
Power RatePwr #25 #12
SP+SP+ #36 #6
Perf GradeGrade #54 #41
OffenseOff #82 #36
DefenseDef #31 #57
Spec TeamsST #101 #98
TalentTal #15 #33
Blue ChipsBC% #12 #18

Florida Notes
(10/15) Sounds like Napier is fired after Miss St. game
(10/12) Napier now 0-14 vs ranked teams on the road
(10/6) OG'd Texas by 100 yds, held UT to 3-11 on 3rd down
(10/6) Who is UF? Great def vs UT, Fr WR D Wilson a threat
(10/1) Have only 3 sacks, near dead last in CFB into Texas
(9/23) Napier's era feels over. Off awful, Lagway worse
(9/23) Lagway in a walking boot after loss to Miami
(9/20) Off & Lagway have tanked. 1-3 & bad vibes now
(9/14) 59% Pass rate w/o expl. TO's, Flags hurt bad
(9/7) Allowed 18 TFL through two games, Off a mess
(8/20) QB2 uncertain, but massive drop off either way

Ole Miss Notes
(9/28) Huge W vs LSU, Def great, Off nearly 500 yds.
(9/28) Penalties and TOs are an issue and could cost 'em
(9/24) QB Chambliss starting vs LSU, has played well
(9/20) Killed Tulane, Rebs better than I thought. Threat
(9/20) Run Off meh besides Chambliss, who's a great QB
(9/15) W/ Simmons injury, Chambliss best QB?
(9/14) QB2 Chambliss a baller, Def is bad, Flag issues
(7/28) Portal TE Hasz will miss most of '25. Big blow
(6/6) WR added 5 portals, still a top 10 unit via PFF
(6/2) WR has 5 players with 400+ yds, 4 are portals
(5/19) Kiffin & OC Weis Jr want to push tempo TY
Florida on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat
FLA OffMISS Def
Perf GradePerf #82 #57
SuccessSuc #92 #64
ExplosiveExp #110 #64
PPAPPA #100 #63
PowerPwr #43 #25
SP+SP+ #61 #16
Pts POPPO #56 #31
HavocHav #90 #84
Florida Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat
FLA OffMISS Def
Run GameRun #84 #67
Run SuccessRSuc #54 #114
Run ExplRExp #124 #110
PPAExp #75 #126
Run BlockR Blk #35 -
OL YdsOLY #50 #128
Stuff RateStuff #85 #125
TackleTak -  #74
Florida Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat
FLA OffMISS Def
Pass GamePass #104 #40
Pass SuccessPSuc #108 #18
Pass ExplPExl #77 #42
PPAExp #101 #18
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #83 #92
F7 HavocF7 #114 #117
DB HavocDB #52 #21
Ole Miss on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCatMISS OffFLA Def
Perf GradePerf #36 #31
SuccessSuc #16 #26
ExplosiveExp #81 #75
PPAPPA #26 #47
PowerPwr #14 #16
SP+SP+ #13 #22
Pts POPPO #23 #39
HavocHav #48 #91
Ole Miss Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
MISS OffFLA Def
Run GameRun #20 #7
Run SuccessRSuc #29 #23
Run ExplRExp #117 #66
PPAExp #66 #30
Run BlockR Blk #103 -
OL YdsOLY #87 #35
Stuff RateStuff #92 #111
TackleTak -  #11
Ole Miss Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCatMISS OffFLA Def
Pass GamePass #50 #61
Pass SuccessPSuc #8 #46
Pass ExplPExl #24 #90
PPAExp #6 #66
Pass Block/RushP Blk #60 #113
F7 HavocF7 #26 #116
DB HavocDB #74 #31
Program Comparison
MISS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'25 Profile: Remains Title Contenders

FLA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Florida beat Ole Miss last year (24-17)

  
FLA's OC Rob Sale (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
D.J. Lagway12518867%1233976.6
Tramell Jones Jr.121867%131207.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jadan Baugh9446134.926
Ja'Kobi Jackson279803.627
Duke Clark155803.911
KD Daniels73705.316
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Vernell Brown III27368013.660
Hayden Hansen1817519.728
J.Michael Sturdivant (Tr)12171114.327
Dallas Wilson9131314.655

View Florida's Full Roster

FLA's DC Ron Roberts (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Myles Graham343043
Bryce Thornton241033
Brendan Bett (Tr)241010
Jaden Robinson233123
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Woods142221
Brien Taylor Jr.132220
Michai Boireau81100
Devin Moore201102
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Myles Graham343043
Jaden Robinson233123
Bryce Thornton241033

MISS's OC Charlie Weis Jr. (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Trinidad Chambliss (Tr)8513065%1286719.9
Austin Simmons345661%5804410.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kewan Lacy (Tr)12658784.742
Trinidad Chambliss (Tr)6128134.641
Logan Diggs1813837.751
Deuce Alexander (Tr)127806.531
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Harrison Wallace III (Tr)17361221.255
Dae'Quan Wright16359322.464
Deuce Alexander (Tr)20349117.535
Cayden Lee15282218.862

View Ole Miss's Full Roster

MISS's DC Pete Golding (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Dottery372012
Jaden Yates (Tr)361000
Kamarion Franklin3132121
William Echoles285332
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
William Echoles285332
Princewill Umanmielen (Tr)154270
Zxavian Harris255231
Kamarion Franklin3132121
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Wydett Williams (Tr)251004
Sage Ryan (Tr)140003
Nick Cull100003