Miami at Pittsburgh - 2025 Matchup Preview
Miami logo (#4)Miami Hurricanes at Pittsburgh PanthersPittsburgh logo
Saturday, November 29th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Acrisure Stadium - Pittsburgh, PA  (ACC)

 
Hurricanes (3 - 0) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (22 - 15)
Avg Score : 40 - 13 (40 - 13 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.8 - 1.2 (#2)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 5) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
MIAMI 2nd straight Road Game
MIAMI is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Miami -13   (SP+ MIAMI -9.5)

Projected Score: MIAMI: 36 - PITT: 23 (59)
MIAMI Win prob: 80% | Cover: 46%
MIAMI Travel: 1001 miles
Panthers (2 - 1) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Pat Narduzzi (72 - 55)
Avg Score : 43 - 19 (53 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.2 - 5.8 (#78)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 3) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
 
Miami's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 8/31 Miami vs Notre Dame+2.553.5W 27 - 24UY
Sat 9/6 Miami vs Bethune-Cookman-54.50.0W 45 - 3ON
Sat 9/13 Miami vs South Florida-17.556.5W 49 - 12OY
Sat 9/20 Miami vs Florida-7.551.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Miami at Florida State-3.5
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 Miami vs Louisville-12
Sat 10/25 Miami vs Stanford-30
Sat 11/1 Miami at SMU-12
Sat 11/8 Miami vs Syracuse-22
Sat 11/15 Miami vs NC State-19.5
Sat 11/22 Miami at Virginia Tech-28.5
Sat 11/29 Miami at Pittsburgh-13

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Miami's Schedule
Pittsburgh's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Pittsburgh vs Duquesne-39.558.5W 61 - 9OY
Sat 9/6 Pittsburgh vs Central Michigan-21.548.5W 45 - 17OY
Sat 9/13 Pittsburgh at West Virginia-6.554.5L 24 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Pittsburgh vs Louisville+3.5
Sat 10/4 Pittsburgh vs Boston College-5.5
Sat 10/11 Pittsburgh at Florida State+11.5
Sat 10/18 Pittsburgh at Syracuse-2
Sat 10/25 Pittsburgh vs NC State-4.5
Sat 11/1 Pittsburgh at Stanford-9.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Pittsburgh vs Notre Dame+5.5
Sat 11/22 Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech+4.5
Sat 11/29 Pittsburgh vs Miami+13

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Pittsburgh's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MIAMI#21 (.39)55% (15)40.352% (32)3.42 (31)17759% (8)3075.5 (13)#48 (.06)35% (33)1328% (9)41% (74)3.64 (72)56.70.72
PITT#39 (.31)46% (48)43.348% (47)2.54 (106)11246% (51)3153.83 (78)#59 (.11)30% (13)1929% (12)31% (23)4.46 (105)7211
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MIAMI#2 (.4)52% (1)56% (1)3.59 (4)16550% (7)3324.96 (2)#69 (.16)38% (26)38% (16)38% (40)4.02 (91)63.111.4
PITT#91 (.15)42% (85)45% (56)3.1 (53)11939% (97)2564.11 (49)#35 (.12)38% (25)38% (20)38% (38)3.68 (57)58.21.31.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MIAMI Offense340.340.355.2%5.50.7264841773075.150%50%52%59%9%.39
PITT Defense3191330.2%4.461 - - - - - 53%47%29%31%21%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MIAMI Defense3131334.8%3.642 - - - - - 46%54%28%41%19%.06
PITT Offense343.35346.5%3.831194271123153.943%57%48%46%18%.31

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Miami332:412652%50%6.356.70.726.32029.9
Pittsburgh325:3719.338%50%7.772119.73.7137.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MIAMI Offense350% (74)52% (32)351775.110 (10).2 (47)3.42 (31)77% (45)4% (4)0.88 (90)
PITT Defense353% (99)29% (12) - - - - -.04 (35)2.05 (13)77% (98)16% (8)1.07 (93)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MIAMI Defense346% (42)28% (9) - - - - -.2 (7)2.1 (14)50% (19)13% (33)0.91 (64)
PITT Offense343% (112)48% (47)28.7112.33.95 (62).15 (62)2.54 (106)77% (45)10% (83)1 (57)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MIAMI Offense350% (59)59% (8)2532.3306.79.512.37 (23)2 (60).57 (18)1.4 (103)23% (13)35% (45).48 (43)5% (65)2.2 (48)
PITT Defense347% (40)31% (23) - - - - - - 2 (56).28 (94)1.7 (109)39% (13)16% (15).13 (38)5% (91)2.2 (98)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MIAMI Defense354% (97)41% (74) - - - - - - 3 (28).28 (93)1.5 (58)38% (21)26% (47).24 (62)6% (56)2 (69)
PITT Offense357% (28)46% (51)2335.33158.913.710 (7)3 (92).48 (29)1.7 (29)28% (45)36% (37).55 (30)8% (122)2.1 (53)

Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 32.16 #5
Miami's Offense Rating: 31.99 #2
Miami's Defense Rating: -2.73 #18
2025 Talent Rating: 964.00 #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 55% #9
Miami's 2025 Expected Record: 10.8 - 1.2
Miami's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 19.7 #10
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 42.1 #1
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #44

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Miami: 32.16   Pittsburgh: 13.115

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Miami: 19.7   Pittsburgh: 10.0




Pittsburgh's Power Ratings
Pittsburgh's Power Rating: 13.115 #51
Pittsburgh's Offense Rating: 15.01 #53
Pittsburgh's Defense Rating: 3.78 #49
2025 Talent Rating: 786.00 #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #56
Pittsburgh's 2025 Expected Record: 6.2 - 5.8
Pittsburgh's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.0 #37
Pittsburgh's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.0 #33
Pittsburgh's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #46

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Miami Scoring
Offense: 40.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 40.3
Defense: 13 PPG
Defense on Road: 13

Miami's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Miami 36
Pittsburgh 23


Total Points: 59

Pittsburgh Scoring
Offense: 43.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 53
Defense: 19 PPG
Defense at Home: 13

Pittsburgh's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202211/26Miami16Pittsburgh42PittsburghPittsburgh -5.5Pittsburgh43.0Over
202110/30Pittsburgh34Miami38MiamiPittsburgh -9.5Miami61.0Over
202010/17Miami31Pittsburgh19MiamiMiami -12.5Pittsburgh47.5Over
201910/26Pittsburgh12Miami16MiamiPittsburgh -4.5Miami43.0Under
201811/24Miami24Pittsburgh3MiamiMiami -5.5Miami45.5Under
201711/24Pittsburgh24Miami14PittsburghMiami -12Pittsburgh54.0Under
201611/05Miami51Pittsburgh28MiamiMiami -6Miami58.0Over
201511/27Pittsburgh24Miami29MiamiPittsburgh -7Miami54.5Under
201411/29Miami23Pittsburgh35PittsburghMiami -9.5Pittsburgh0
201311/29Pittsburgh31Miami41MiamiMiami -3Miami0
201009/23Pittsburgh3Miami31Miami
200311/29Pittsburgh14Miami28Miami
200109/27Pittsburgh21Miami43Miami
200011/10Miami35Pittsburgh7Miami
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Pittsburgh344 Overs
Miami1164 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 93 - 72 - 51 - 2
Road Teams9 - 57 - 32 - 15 - 2

(#5) Miami Info
Power Rating: 32.16 #5
Offense Rating: 31.99 #2
Defense Rating: -2.73 #18
Overall SP+ Rating: 19.7 #10
Offense SP+ Rating: 42.1 #1
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #44
Talent Rating: 964.00 #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 55% #9
Expected Record: 10.8 - 1.2

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
Great Offense Success Rate of 55%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 5.5 PPO
Good Run Success 52%
Great Pass Success 59%
Good OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 35%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.64 PPO
Great Run Def Success 28%
Bad Pass Def Success 41%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Miami has lost 8 straight
Miami has lost 3 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 0 (0 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

Miami Notes
(8/20) WR1 Trader seems to be getting most buzz
(6/8) Strength coach resigned in June? Bad timing
(6/4) RBs Fletcher good, Lyle, Seldon (FCS) great depth
(5/23) DEs Bain + Mesidor is one of CFBs top units
(5/21) Def very talented, why so bad? DBs 7 portals
(5/21) QBs Beck (UGA) supposedly good to go summer
(5/21) OL one of CFBs best, 4/5 back. Deep, big
(5/3) Fr WR Malachi Toney is a playmaker, will play
(4/4) DE Bain a top 10 DE via PFF. Hurt LY
(4/4) OT Francis Mauigoa a top OT via PFF

Miami Highlights
Miami in Undefeated

Miami offense is efficent (#15)
Miami offense is good in red zone (#13)
Miami offense is good on 3rd downs
Miami has a good run defense (#9)
Miami Defensive Line is very good (#14)
Miami has a great TO Margin (#28)
Miami defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Miami Deficiencies

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatPITTMIAMI
OverallOver#11#4
OffenseOff#56#5
DefenseDef#3#10
Special TeamsST#16#88
PassingPass#87#40
RushingRush#36#15
Run BlockRBLK#40#8
Pass BlockPBLK#37#29
Route RunningWR Rt#51#5
TacklingTkl#9#41
Run DefenseR Def#4#2
Pass Rush DefPRush#3#10
Coverage DefCov#28#53

Previous Matchups
Pittsburgh beat Miami in 2022 (42-16)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Acrisure Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MIAMI | PITT
Depth Chart: MIAMI | PITT
Rosters: MIAMI | PITT
(#51) Pittsburgh Info
Power Rating: 13.115 #51
Offense Rating: 15.01 #53
Defense Rating: 3.78 #49
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.0 #37
Offense SP+ Rating: 33.0 #33
Defense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #46
Talent Rating: 786.00 #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #56
Expected Record: 6.2 - 5.8

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 46%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.83 PPO
Avg Run Success 48%
Avg Pass Success 46%
Avg OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 30%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.46 PPO
Great Run Def Success 29%
Good Pass Def Success 31%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Pittsburgh has lost 9 straight
Pittsburgh has lost 4 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 0 (2 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

Pittsburgh Notes
(9/13) Run Off awful vs WVU, Red Zone issues too
(7/13) Look better TY esp Off, sleeper ACC pick
(7/13) WR #2+3 back, 3 portals. Shorter, but deep
(7/13) OL 3/5 back, 4 portals, top 3rd ACC line?
(7/13) Def decent LY, 8 portals, 3 DEs to find pass rush
(6/14) RB Reid one of ACC best. Must find depth
(6/14) OC Bell an upgrade LY, DC Bates improved D.
(4/4) LB K. Louis/R. Biles both top 10 LBs via PFF
(3/21) QB Holstein back, was OK LY. Same OC
(3/21) Don't know what Pitt wants to be in NIL era

Pittsburgh Highlights
Pittsburgh is Undefeated at Home
Pittsburgh is Undefeated vs Spread at Home

Pittsburgh offense is explosive (#25)
Pittsburgh Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Pittsburgh has a really good defense (#13)
Pittsburgh has a good run defense (#12)
Pittsburgh has a good pass defense (#23)
Pittsburgh Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#14)
Pittsburgh Defensive Line is very good (#13)
Pittsburgh Front 7 is disruptive (#8)

Pittsburgh Deficiencies
Pittsburgh Can Not Run the Ball (#114)
Pittsburgh Commits a Lot of Penalties (#109)
Pittsburgh has a bad red zone defense (#105)


  
Miami's OC Shannon Dawson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carson Beck (Tr)658378%812729.8
Emory Williams101471%108007.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Mark Fletcher Jr.4227246.538
CharMar Brown (Tr)3111123.611
Girard Pringle Jr.74826.930
Chris Wheatley-Humphrey73304.713
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Malachi Toney18228112.728
C.J. Daniels (Tr)14175312.540
Keelan Marion (Tr)10117011.736
Tony Johnson (Tr)384028.051

View Miami's Full Roster
Miami's DC Corey Hetherman
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rueben Bain Jr.153201
Akheem Mesidor133200
Raul Aguirre Jr.100000
Jakobe Thomas (Tr)100000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Akheem Mesidor133200
Rueben Bain Jr.153201
Ahmad Moten92100
Booker Pickett31100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
OJ Frederique Jr.40002
Keionte Scott (Tr)63012
Chase Smith80001

Pittsburgh's OC Kade Bell
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Eli Holstein588866%822939.3
Cole Gonzales (Tr)81650%87105.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Desmond Reid2414215.953
Juelz Goff218424.017
Eli Holstein255012.031
Ja'Kyrian Turner103513.59
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Raphael Williams13285321.967
Bryce Yates4143135.868
Kenny Johnson886110.820
Cataurus Hicks (Tr)784212.022

View Pittsburgh's Full Roster
Pittsburgh's DC Randy Bates
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rasheem Biles293032
Cruce Brookins230002
Kyle Louis194200
Braylan Lovelace181011
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kyle Louis194200
Joseph Zelinsky42210
Zach Crothers153210
Blaine Spires (Tr)103220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rasheem Biles293032
Cruce Brookins230002
Braylan Lovelace181011