Miami at Pittsburgh - 2025 Matchup Preview
Miami logo   Miami Hurricanes at Pittsburgh Panthers  Pittsburgh logo
Saturday, November 29th 2025 (12:00 PM EST)
Miami -6.5 (49.5) (-250)  Open: -6.5 | 51.5
Miami 38 - Pittsburgh: 7  (ACC)

 
Hurricanes (13 - 3) (11 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (22 - 15)
Avg Score : 31 - 15 (26 - 15 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.5 - 2.5 (#16)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
MIAMI 2nd straight Road Game
MIAMI is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Miami -10.5  (SP+ MIAMI -12.5)

Projected Score: MIAMI: 31 - PITT: 20 (51)
MIAMI Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
MIAMI Travel: 1001 miles
Panthers (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Pat Narduzzi (72 - 55)
Avg Score : 34 - 25 (37 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Miami's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 8/31 Miami vs Notre Dame+2.553.5W 27 - 24UY
Sat 9/6 Miami vs Bethune-Cookman-54.50.0W 45 - 3ON
Sat 9/13 Miami vs South Florida-17.556.5W 49 - 12OY
Sat 9/20 Miami vs Florida-8.551.5W 26 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Miami at Florida State-3.554.5W 28 - 22UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 Miami vs Louisville-10.549.5L 21 - 24UN
Sat 10/25 Miami vs Stanford-28.545.5W 42 - 7OY
Sat 11/1 Miami at SMU-8.550.5L 20 - 26UN
Sat 11/8 Miami vs Syracuse-28.547.5W 38 - 10ON
Sat 11/15 Miami vs NC State-16.554.5W 41 - 7UY
Sat 11/22 Miami at Virginia Tech-18.549.0W 34 - 17ON
Sat 11/29 Miami at Pittsburgh-6.549.5W 38 - 7UY
Sat 12/20 Miami at Texas A&M+3.048.5W 10 - 3UY
Wed 12/31 Miami vs Ohio State+7.539.5W 24 - 14UY
Thu 1/8 Miami vs Ole Miss-3.052.5W 31 - 27OY
Mon 1/19 Miami vs Indiana+7.546.5L 21 - 27OY

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Miami's Schedule
Pittsburgh's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Pittsburgh vs Duquesne-39.558.5W 61 - 9OY
Sat 9/6 Pittsburgh vs Central Michigan-21.548.5W 45 - 17OY
Sat 9/13 Pittsburgh at West Virginia-6.554.5L 24 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Pittsburgh vs Louisville+3.053.5L 27 - 34ON
Sat 10/4 Pittsburgh vs Boston College-6.554.5W 48 - 7OY
Sat 10/11 Pittsburgh at Florida State+10.556.5W 34 - 31OY
Sat 10/18 Pittsburgh at Syracuse-9.554.5W 30 - 13UY
Sat 10/25 Pittsburgh vs NC State-5.552.5W 53 - 34OY
Sat 11/1 Pittsburgh at Stanford-13.551.5W 35 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Pittsburgh vs Notre Dame+12.555.5L 15 - 37UN
Sat 11/22 Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech+2.561.5W 42 - 28OY
Sat 11/29 Pittsburgh vs Miami+6.549.5L 7 - 38UN
Sat 12/27 Pittsburgh vs East Carolina-13.551.5L 17 - 23UN

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Pittsburgh's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MIAMI#2 (.4)52% (1)30.956% (1)3.59 (4)16550% (7)3324.96 (2)#69 (.16)38% (26)14.838% (16)38% (40)4.02 (91)63.111.4
PITT#91 (.15)42% (85)33.745% (56)3.1 (53)11939% (97)2564.11 (49)#35 (.12)38% (25)24.838% (20)38% (38)3.68 (57)58.21.31.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MIAMI0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
PITT0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MIAMI Offense1330.92652.5%4.961254971653325.543%57%56%50%10%.4
PITT Defense1324.825.138.1%3.681.2 - - - - - 45%55%38%38%18%.12
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MIAMI Defense1314.81538.1%4.021.4 - - - - - 45%55%38%38%18%.16
PITT Offense1333.736.641.6%4.111.3213751192564.342%58%45%39%21%.15

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Miami1330:1325.256%65%6.263.111.45.92.6129.7
Pittsburgh1324:0120.738%52%6.458.21.31.27.63627.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MIAMI Offense1343% (114)56% (1)30.1165.55.528 (25).32 (5)3.59 (4)90% (1)6% (3)0.95 (73)
PITT Defense1345% (13)38% (20) - - - - - (13)2.36 (2)48% (1)12% (25)0.98 (67)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MIAMI Defense1345% (11)38% (16) - - - - .08 (49)2.6 (16)57% (4)11% (43)1.15 (125)
PITT Offense1342% (116)45% (56)27.3118.64.314 (98).18 (42)3.1 (53)77% (40)12% (119)1.05 (41)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MIAMI Offense1357% (20)50% (7)23.935.1331.69.513.938 (1)7 (26).47 (6)1.7 (26)27% (5)42% (1).69 (1)4% (15)2.3 (6)
PITT Defense1355% (122)38% (38) - - - - - - 12 (39).23 (70)1.8 (123)37% (3)31% (82).33 (82)6% (50)2.2 (113)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MIAMI Defense1355% (125)38% (40) - - - - - - 14 (23).23 (66)1.7 (113)36% (9)36% (123).45 (115)7% (34)2.1 (84)
PITT Offense1358% (18)39% (97)21.835.9256.27.111.727 (20)13 (103).13 (112)1.6 (55)32% (85)35% (30).36 (60)8% (126)2.1 (40)

Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 25.83  #6
Miami's Offense Rating: 24.47  #13
Miami's Defense Rating: -1.36  #6
2025 Talent Rating: 964.00  #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 55%  #9
Miami's 2025 Expected Record: 10.5 - 2.5
Miami's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 20.7  #9
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2  #22
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.3  #7

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Miami: 25.83   Pittsburgh: 12.925

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Miami: 20.7   Pittsburgh: 8.4




Pittsburgh's Power Ratings
Pittsburgh's Power Rating: 12.925  #31
Pittsburgh's Offense Rating: 20.31  #25
Pittsburgh's Defense Rating: 7.86  #34
2025 Talent Rating: 786.00  #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 4  #56
Pittsburgh's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Pittsburgh's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.4  #36
Pittsburgh's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6  #39
Pittsburgh's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.5  #47

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Miami Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 26
Defense: 14.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 15

Miami's 2025 Record
Record: 13 - 3
Record vs Spread: 11 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 9
Record on Road: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Miami 31
Pittsburgh 20


Projected Total Points: 51
Pittsburgh Scoring
Offense: 33.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.6
Defense: 24.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.1

Pittsburgh's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/29Pittsburgh7Miami38Miami -6.5Miami49.5Under
202211/26Miami16Pittsburgh42Pittsburgh -5.5Pittsburgh43.0Over
202110/30Pittsburgh34Miami38Pittsburgh -9.5Miami61.0Over
202010/17Miami31Pittsburgh19Miami -12.5Pittsburgh47.5Over
201910/26Pittsburgh12Miami16Pittsburgh -4.5Miami43.0Under
201811/24Miami24Pittsburgh3Miami -5.5Miami45.5Under
201711/24Pittsburgh24Miami14Miami -12Pittsburgh54.0Under
201611/05Miami51Pittsburgh28Miami -6Miami58.0Over
201511/27Pittsburgh24Miami29Pittsburgh -7Miami54.5Under
201411/29Miami23Pittsburgh35Miami -9.5Pittsburgh0
201311/29Pittsburgh31Miami41Miami -3Miami0
201009/23Pittsburgh3Miami31
200311/29Pittsburgh14Miami28
200109/27Pittsburgh21Miami43
200011/10Miami35Pittsburgh7
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Pittsburgh344 Overs
Miami1275 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 103 - 82 - 51 - 3
Road Teams10 - 58 - 33 - 15 - 2

(#6) MIAMI at (#31) PITT
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMIAMIPITT
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #6 #31
SP+SP+ #9 #36
Perf GradeGrade #5 #72
OffenseOff #7 #102
DefenseDef #4 #26
Spec TeamsST #49 #73
TalentTal #16 #58
Blue ChipsBC% #9 #56
Miami Notes
(11/3) 9 trips into SMU territory only scored 20 pts
(11/2) Miami 4-11 under Mario in November+
(10/30) Ugly start vs Stanford, 35-0 in 2H. Def great
(10/30) QB C Beck looks hurt (elbow?) since L'ville game
(10/18) Is L'ville L same ole Miami? Something looked off
(10/17) Off awful, Beck 4 INT, 63 yds rush (2.6 ypc) in L
(9/20) Def awesome, DL may be best in CFB. Contender
(9/20) Beck awful vs Gators, Run Off tough and good
(8/22) TE Lofton a name to watch. Athletic, staff high
(8/20) WR1 Trader seems to be getting most buzz
(6/8) Strength coach resigned in June? Bad timing
(6/4) RBs Fletcher good, Lyle, Seldon (FCS) great depth
Miami Injury Report
Pittsburgh Notes
(11/16) No show vs ND, non competitive. Pitt isn't good
(10/25) Four W's in a row, killed NC St, Heintschel 400+
(10/12) QB Heintschel saved season. Chance 7-2 hosting ND
(10/9) Ton of injuries, and a lot of DL. See injury report
(10/4) QB Holstein benched, Fr Mason Heintschel starting
(10/4) RB D Reid missed L'ville, out for BC game
(10/4) QB Heintschel much better, raises Offense, new #1
(9/13) Run Off awful vs WVU, Red Zone issues too
(7/13) Look better TY esp Off, sleeper ACC pick
(7/13) WR #2+3 back, 3 portals. Shorter, but deep
(7/13) OL 3/5 back, 4 portals, top 3rd ACC line?
(7/13) Def decent LY, 8 portals, 3 DEs to find pass rush
Pittsburgh Injury Report
Miami on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
MIAMI OffPITT Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #7 #26
SuccessSuc #1 #25
ExplosiveExp #22 #122
PPAPPA #2 #35
PowerPwr #13 #34
SP+SP+ #22 #47
Pts POPPO #2 #57
HavocHav #4 #31
Miami Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
MIAMI OffPITT Def
Run GameRun #21 #5
Run SuccessRSuc #1 #20
Run ExplRExp #73 #67
PPAExp #5 #13
Run BlockR Blk #12 -
OL YdsOLY #4 #2
Stuff RateStuff #2 #5
TackleTak -  #25
Miami Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
MIAMI OffPITT Def
Pass GamePass #32 #60
Pass SuccessPSuc #7 #38
Pass ExplPExl #26 #123
PPAExp #6 #70
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #1 #62
F7 HavocF7 #3 #25
DB HavocDB #15 #50
Pittsburgh on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatPITT OffMIAMI Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #102 #4
SuccessSuc #85 #26
ExplosiveExp #19 #130
PPAPPA #91 #69
PowerPwr #25 #6
SP+SP+ #39 #7
Pts POPPO #49 #91
HavocHav #128 #39
Pittsburgh Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
PITT OffMIAMI Def
Run GameRun #84 #14
Run SuccessRSuc #56 #16
Run ExplRExp #41 #125
PPAExp #42 #49
Run BlockR Blk #86 -
OL YdsOLY #53 #16
Stuff RateStuff #71 #7
TackleTak -  #120
Pittsburgh Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatPITT OffMIAMI Def
Pass GamePass #119 #15
Pass SuccessPSuc #97 #40
Pass ExplPExl #55 #113
PPAExp #112 #66
Pass Block/RushP Blk #68 #1
F7 HavocF7 #119 #43
DB HavocDB #126 #34
Program Comparison
PITT 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

MIAMI 5 Year Profile: Improving Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Acrisure Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 14
Miami 6.5 (49.5)
Miami won at Pittsburgh this year (38-7)

Previous Matchups
Miami beat Pittsburgh last year (38-7)

  
MIAMI's OC Shannon Dawson (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carson Beck (Tr)33846872%381330128.1
Emory Williams131968%156008.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Mark Fletcher Jr.2161192125.557
CharMar Brown (Tr)12246073.813
Girard Pringle Jr.6237546.038
Malachi Toney2311314.913
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Malachi Toney10912111011.161
Keelan Marion (Tr)57746213.161
C.J. Daniels (Tr)50557711.147
Elija Lofton2321839.529

View Miami's Full Roster

MIAMI's DC Corey Hetherman (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mohamed Toure (Tr)843216
Jakobe Thomas (Tr)754406
Wesley Bissainthe713110
Zechariah Poyser (Tr)683115
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Akheem Mesidor63181360
Rueben Bain Jr.54161051
Keionte Scott (Tr)6413585
Ahmad Moten319540
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavier Lucas (Tr)452118
OJ Frederique Jr.190007
Mohamed Toure (Tr)843216

PITT's OC Kade Bell (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Mason Heintschel20131664%23571687.5
Eli Holstein7712562%10811268.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ja'Kyrian Turner14074775.356
Desmond Reid6027824.653
Juelz Goff6927053.917
Mason Heintschel868821.036
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Raphael Williams52741714.367
Kenny Johnson47658514.042
Cataurus Hicks (Tr)24422417.684
Desmond Reid23317213.850

View Pittsburgh's Full Roster

PITT's DC Randy Bates (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rasheem Biles10017544
Kyle Louis798333
Braylan Lovelace796162
Kavir Bains (Tr)581004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rasheem Biles10017544
Jimmy Scott178481
Isaiah Neal367441
Kyle Louis798333
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rashad Battle422105
Rasheem Biles10017544
Kavir Bains (Tr)581004