Georgia State at Ole Miss - 2025 Matchup Preview
Georgia State logo   Georgia State Panthers at Ole Miss Rebels  Ole Miss logo
Saturday, August 30th 2025 (7:45 PM EDT)
Ole Miss -38.5 (62.5) (0)  Open: -38.5 | 62.5
Ole Miss 63 - Georgia State: 7

 
Panthers (1 - 11) (2 - 10 - 0)
Coach Dell McGee (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 20 - 38 (18 - 45 on Road)
Record Prediction: 1 - 11 (#133)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 8)
Our Line: Ole Miss -45.5  (SP+ MISS -49)
Projected Score: GAST: 8 - MISS: 53 (61)
MISS Win prob: 97% | Cover: 51%
GAST Travel: 298 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Rebels (13 - 2) (9 - 6 - 0)
Coach Lane Kiffin (43 - 18)
Avg Score : 37 - 21 (39 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 12 - 1 (#3)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Georgia State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Georgia State at Ole Miss+38.562.5L 7 - 63ON
Sat 9/6 Georgia State vs Memphis+14.557.5L 16 - 38UN
Sat 9/13 Georgia State vs Murray State-31.563.5W 37 - 21UN
Sat 9/20 Georgia State at Vanderbilt+27.553.5L 21 - 70ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Georgia State vs James Madison+19.552.5L 7 - 14UY
Sat 10/11 Georgia State vs App State+3.055.5L 20 - 41ON
Sat 10/18 Georgia State at Georgia Southern+6.558.5L 24 - 41ON
Thu 10/23 Georgia State vs South Alabama+5.554.5L 31 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Georgia State at Coastal Carolina+7.056.5L 27 - 40ON
Sat 11/15 Georgia State vs Marshall+9.559.5L 18 - 30UN
Sat 11/22 Georgia State at Troy+9.551.0L 19 - 31UN
Sat 11/29 Georgia State at Old Dominion+29.058.5L 10 - 27UY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Georgia State's Schedule
Ole Miss's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Ole Miss vs Georgia State-38.562.5W 63 - 7OY
Sat 9/6 Ole Miss at Kentucky-8.051.5W 30 - 23ON
Sat 9/13 Ole Miss vs Arkansas-3.560.5W 41 - 35OY
Sat 9/20 Ole Miss vs Tulane-12.561.5W 45 - 10UY
Sat 9/27 Ole Miss vs LSU-2.557.5W 24 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Ole Miss vs Washington State-33.558.5W 24 - 21UN
Sat 10/18 Ole Miss at Georgia+7.556.5L 35 - 43ON
Sat 10/25 Ole Miss at Oklahoma+5.552.5W 34 - 26OY
Sat 11/1 Ole Miss vs South Carolina-12.555.5W 30 - 14UY
Sat 11/8 Ole Miss vs The Citadel-51.563.5W 49 - 0UN
Sat 11/15 Ole Miss vs Florida-10.553.5W 34 - 24ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28 Ole Miss at Mississippi State-7.562.5W 38 - 19UY
Sat 12/20 Ole Miss vs Tulane-17.557.5W 41 - 10UY
Thu 1/1 Ole Miss vs Georgia+6.053.5W 39 - 34OY
Thu 1/8 Ole Miss vs Miami+3.052.5L 27 - 31ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ole Miss's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
GAST#92 (.15)41% (90)19.842% (92)2.94 (86)13441% (79)2563.85 (76)#121 (.28)48% (123)37.849% (119)46% (118)4.42 (120)49.11.61.4
MISS#4 (.34)47% (19)36.944% (76)3.02 (72)16451% (3)3174 (58)#6 (.04)35% (3)21.135% (6)36% (13)2.98 (8)68.50.91.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
GAST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MISS0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
GAST Offense1219.81841.2%3.851.6213901342564.542%58%42%41%18%.15
MISS Defense1321.115.635.3%2.981.6 - - - - - 47%53%35%36%25%.04
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
GAST Defense1237.845.347.6%4.421.4 - - - - - 58%42%49%46%14%.28
MISS Offense1336.93947.4%40.9234811643174.650%50%44%51%15%.34

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Georgia State1229:5820.736%37%5.149.11.61.441.5030.6
Ole Miss1326:0422.741%59%6.868.50.91.68.94.1029.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
GAST Offense1242% (118)42% (92)301344.513 (105).06 (105)2.94 (86)67% (108)10% (83)0.95 (74)
MISS Defense1347% (25)35% (6) - - - - -.04 (4)2.49 (7)74% (71)16% (1)0.88 (23)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
GAST Defense1258% (130)49% (119) - - - - .22 (115)3.36 (117)79% (104)8% (124)0.95 (51)
MISS Offense1350% (75)44% (76)35.8164.24.627 (30).15 (58)3.02 (72)71% (85)10% (68)1.09 (26)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
GAST Offense1258% (15)41% (79)22.637.4255.86.811.321 (51)13 (103).24 (78)1.6 (66)33% (98)32% (59).37 (54)7% (114)2.1 (53)
MISS Defense1353% (115)36% (13) - - - - - - 11 (52).12 (20)1.6 (85)37% (5)23% (1).1 (3)8% (3)2.1 (68)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
GAST Defense1242% (5)46% (118) - - - - - - 9 (76).38 (124)1.6 (80)29% (108)38% (125).46 (123)6% (60)1.8 (11)
MISS Offense1350% (59)51% (3)20.530.5317.210.415.427 (20)6 (10).53 (3)1.6 (46)29% (28)38% (7).63 (2)5% (54)2.3 (12)

Georgia State's Power Ratings
Georgia State's Power Rating: -15.32  #122
Georgia State's Offense Rating: 8.02  #100
Georgia State's Defense Rating: 23.34  #128
2025 Talent Rating: 596.00  #94
Blue Chip Ratio: 4%  #56
Georgia State's 2025 Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0
Georgia State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -24.5  #133
Georgia State's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.6  #116
Georgia State's Defense SP+ Rating: 41.1  #134

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 564.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Georgia State: -15.32   Ole Miss: 25.58

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Georgia State: -24.5   Ole Miss: 24.0




Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: 25.58  #9
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: 26.65  #7
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: 4.49  #21
2025 Talent Rating: 870.00  #33
Blue Chip Ratio: 40  #18
Ole Miss's 2025 Expected Record: 12.0 - 1.0
Ole Miss's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.0  #7
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.4  #3
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.3  #20

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Georgia State Scoring
Offense: 19.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 18
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 45.3

Georgia State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 9 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Projected Score
Ole Miss 53
Georgia State 8


Projected Total Points: 61
Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 36.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 39
Defense: 21.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.6

Ole Miss's 2025 Record
Record: 13 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 7
Record at home: 9 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202508/30Ole Miss63Georgia State7Ole Miss -38.5Ole Miss62.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Ole Miss111 Overs
Georgia State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#122) GAST at (#9) MISS
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatGASTMISS
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #122 #9
SP+SP+ #133 #7
Perf GradeGrade #130 #12
OffenseOff #128 #9
DefenseDef #122 #41
Spec TeamsST #90 #18
TalentTal #94 #33
Blue ChipsBC% #56 #18
Georgia State Notes
(10/23) QB Cameran Brown taken over for TJ Finley (awful)
(10/23) This defense is shameful, DC Travis Pearson no good
(10/20) Most penalized team in CFB, have had 4 gms of 13+
(10/12) Too many paycheck games & now killed by App? Oof
(9/30) 3 paycheck games + FCS, know nothing about GSU
(8/1) DBs full rebuild, could struggle badly early
(8/1) RB all new, decent portal adds, have depth
(8/1) OL poor LY, 1/5 back. 8 portals, 4 P4. Jump?
(8/1) Def poor LY, only 9 portals? Can't stop run
(8/1) Probably a year away from bowl, 3-4 win team
(7/13) HC McGee crootin big, #1 SBC class
(5/2) WR 3 portals, retaining Ted Hurst a huge win
Georgia State Injury Report
Ole Miss Notes
(12/9) Hired OC John David Baker (ECU). Decent hire
(12/1) Hired DC Pete Golding after Kiffin left for LSU
(10/19) Def torched by UGA, 500 yds. Run Def concerning
(9/28) Huge W vs LSU, Def great, Off nearly 500 yds.
(9/28) Penalties and TOs are an issue and could cost 'em
(9/24) QB Chambliss starting vs LSU, has played well
(9/20) Killed Tulane, Rebs better than I thought. Threat
(9/20) Run Off meh besides Chambliss, who's a great QB
(9/15) W/ Simmons injury, Chambliss best QB?
(9/14) QB2 Chambliss a baller, Def is bad, Flag issues
(7/28) Portal TE Hasz will miss most of '25. Big blow
(6/6) WR added 5 portals, still a top 10 unit via PFF
Ole Miss Injury Report
Georgia State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
GAST OffMISS Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #128 #41
SuccessSuc #90 #3
ExplosiveExp #46 #78
PPAPPA #92 #6
PowerPwr #100 #21
SP+SP+ #116 #20
Pts POPPO #76 #8
HavocHav #108 #1
Georgia State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
GAST OffMISS Def
Run GameRun #127 #18
Run SuccessRSuc #92 #6
Run ExplRExp #74 #23
PPAExp #105 #4
Run BlockR Blk #130 -
OL YdsOLY #86 #7
Stuff RateStuff #94 #19
TackleTak -  #81
Georgia State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
GAST OffMISS Def
Pass GamePass #63 #67
Pass SuccessPSuc #79 #13
Pass ExplPExl #66 #85
PPAExp #78 #20
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #132 #85
F7 HavocF7 #83 #1
DB HavocDB #114 #3
Ole Miss on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatMISS OffGAST Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #9 #122
SuccessSuc #19 #123
ExplosiveExp #8 #46
PPAPPA #4 #121
PowerPwr #7 #128
SP+SP+ #3 #134
Pts POPPO #58 #120
HavocHav #54 #109
Ole Miss Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MISS OffGAST Def
Run GameRun #14 #111
Run SuccessRSuc #76 #119
Run ExplRExp #26 #51
PPAExp #58 #115
Run BlockR Blk #94 -
OL YdsOLY #72 #117
Stuff RateStuff #92 #111
TackleTak -  #45
Ole Miss Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatMISS OffGAST Def
Pass GamePass #14 #113
Pass SuccessPSuc #3 #118
Pass ExplPExl #46 #80
PPAExp #3 #124
Pass Block/RushP Blk #35 #109
F7 HavocF7 #68 #124
DB HavocDB #54 #60
Program Comparison
MISS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'25 Profile: Remains Title Contenders

GAST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 1
Ole Miss -38.5 (62.5)
Ole Miss won vs Georgia State this year (63-7)

Previous Matchups
Ole Miss beat Georgia State last year (63-7)

  
GAST's OC Jim Chaney (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
TJ Finley (Tr)12720163%1244676.2
Cameran Brown (Tr)11918465%12591316.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Simmons9754325.692
Cameran Brown (Tr)6128444.722
Rashad Amos (Tr)6326724.229
Branson Robinson (Tr)4614813.247
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ted Hurst711004614.170
Javon Robinson (Tr)58599410.346
Grant Hollier21288413.752
Jordan Simmons2819216.932

View Georgia State's Full Roster

GAST's DC Travis Pearson (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josiah Robinson968211
Jaylen Jones665001
Kedrick Walker577310
D-Icey Hopkins513105
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jartavius Flounoy226311
Kedrick Walker577310
Josiah Robinson968211
Richard Kramer (Tr)132200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bernard Causey III (Tr)192106
D-Icey Hopkins513105
Jordan Huff (Tr)471004

MISS's OC Charlie Weis Jr. (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Trinidad Chambliss (Tr)29444566%39372238.8
Austin Simmons457560%744459.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kewan Lacy (Tr)3061567245.173
Trinidad Chambliss (Tr)13352784.041
Logan Diggs3318945.751
Damien Taylor (Tr)2813024.620
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Harrison Wallace III (Tr)61934415.355
De'Zhaun Stribling (Tr)55811614.775
Deuce Alexander (Tr)44684215.588
Cayden Lee44635314.462

View Ole Miss's Full Roster

MISS's DC Pete Golding (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Dottery986212
Suntarine Perkins81135125
Wydett Williams (Tr)731009
Kamarion Franklin6995143
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Princewill Umanmielen (Tr)45139131
Kamarion Franklin6995143
William Echoles6812565
Suntarine Perkins81135125
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Wydett Williams (Tr)731009
William Echoles6812565
Kapena Gushiken (Tr)551015