Georgia State at Ole Miss - 2025 Matchup Preview
Georgia State logo Georgia State Panthers at Ole Miss Rebels(#21)Ole Miss logo
Saturday, August 30th 2025 (7:45 PM EDT)
Ole Miss -38.5 (62.5) (0)  Open: -38.5 | 62.5
Ole Miss 63 - Georgia State: 7

 
Panthers (1 - 2) (0 - 3 - 0)
Coach Dell McGee (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 20 - 41 (7 - 63 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#128)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 8)
Our Line: Ole Miss -46   (SP+ MISS -41)
Projected Score: GAST: 10 - MISS: 56 (65)
MISS Win prob: 97% | Cover: 51%
GAST Travel: 298 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Rebels (3 - 0) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Lane Kiffin (43 - 18)
Avg Score : 45 - 22 (52 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 2.5 (#13)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 4) (Good: 3) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
 
Georgia State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Georgia State at Ole Miss+38.562.5L 7 - 63ON
Sat 9/6 Georgia State vs Memphis+14.557.5L 16 - 38UN
Sat 9/13 Georgia State vs Murray State-31.563.5W 37 - 21UN
Sat 9/20 Georgia State at Vanderbilt+26.553.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Georgia State vs James Madison+21.5
Sat 10/11 Georgia State vs App State+8
Sat 10/18 Georgia State at Georgia Southern+5
Thu 10/23 Georgia State vs South Alabama+12.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Georgia State at Coastal Carolina+9
Sat 11/15 Georgia State vs Marshall+4.5
Sat 11/22 Georgia State at Troy+16
Sat 11/29 Georgia State at Old Dominion+22.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Georgia State's Schedule
Ole Miss's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Ole Miss vs Georgia State-38.562.5W 63 - 7OY
Sat 9/6 Ole Miss at Kentucky-8.051.5W 30 - 23ON
Sat 9/13 Ole Miss vs Arkansas-3.560.5W 41 - 35OY
Sat 9/20 Ole Miss vs Tulane-11.561.5
Sat 9/27 Ole Miss vs LSU-2.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Ole Miss vs Washington State-33
Sat 10/18 Ole Miss at Georgia+6.5
Sat 10/25 Ole Miss at Oklahoma+6.5
Sat 11/1 Ole Miss vs South Carolina-13
Sat 11/8 Ole Miss vs The Citadel-46.5
Sat 11/15 Ole Miss vs Florida-7.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29 Ole Miss at Mississippi State-6

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ole Miss's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
GAST#94 (.13)37% (116)2030% (131)2.11 (128)13542% (76)2321.17 (134)#128 (.39)54% (133)40.753% (128)59% (134)4.88 (117)80.71.71
MISS#22 (.38)55% (17)44.752% (30)2.76 (90)21458% (9)3315.25 (24)#115 (.26)40% (75)21.747% (104)33% (33)3 (50)66.71.30.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
GAST#92 (.15)41% (90)42% (92)2.94 (86)13441% (79)2563.85 (76)#121 (.28)48% (123)49% (119)46% (118)4.42 (120)49.11.61.4
MISS#4 (.34)47% (19)44% (76)3.02 (72)16451% (3)3174 (58)#6 (.04)35% (3)35% (6)36% (13)2.98 (8)68.50.91.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
GAST Offense320736.6%1.171.7163681352324.347%53%30%42%20%.13
MISS Defense321.72140.2%30.7 - - - - - 53%47%47%33%15%.26
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
GAST Defense340.76354%4.881 - - - - - 57%41%53%59%16%.39
MISS Offense344.75254.5%5.251.326544214331558%41%52%58%14%.38

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Georgia State330:4815.732%56%1080.71.716.71.7026.4
Ole Miss327:102650%100%7.366.71.30.73.71.3028.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
GAST Offense347% (88)30% (131)31.3135.34.32 (109)-.18 (134)2.11 (128)56% (118)12% (117)1.2 (29)
MISS Defense353% (97)47% (104) - - - - .38 (131)3.57 (132)89% (119)6% (125)1.29 (122)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
GAST Defense357% (113)53% (128) - - - - .41 (133)3.42 (127)90% (123)10% (61)1.14 (105)
MISS Offense358% (24)52% (30)43213.7510 (10).18 (53)2.76 (90)85% (26)7% (45)0.79 (110)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
GAST Offense353% (47)42% (76)20.732232.37.311.26 (34)4 (121).41 (43)1.8 (14)35% (109)33% (54).42 (50)7% (114)2.6 (10)
MISS Defense347% (42)33% (33) - - - - - - 1 (87).12 (40)1.7 (101)37% (27)28% (60).34 (89)9% (20)2.4 (124)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
GAST Defense341% (17)59% (134) - - - - - - 2 (56).61 (130)1.6 (76)23% (133)42% (129).41 (99)6% (73)1.7 (42)
MISS Offense341% (113)58% (9)19.730.3330.710.916.86 (34)4 (121).74 (5)1.8 (21)25% (21)46% (14).68 (20)6% (100)2 (65)

Georgia State's Power Ratings
Georgia State's Power Rating: -22.21 #135
Georgia State's Offense Rating: 2.00 #121
Georgia State's Defense Rating: 26.96 #132
2025 Talent Rating: 596.00 #94
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #56
Georgia State's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Georgia State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -18.8 #127
Georgia State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.5 #108
Georgia State's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.1 #133

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Georgia State: -22.21   Ole Miss: 25.48

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Georgia State: -18.8   Ole Miss: 22.6




Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: 25.48 #21
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: 26.64 #14
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: 3.29 #44
2025 Talent Rating: 870.00 #33
Blue Chip Ratio: 40 #18
Ole Miss's 2025 Expected Record: 9.5 - 2.5
Ole Miss's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 22.6 #5
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.5 #7
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.2 #13

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Georgia State Scoring
Offense: 20 PPG
Offense on Road: 7
Defense: 40.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 63

Georgia State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Ole Miss 56
Georgia State 10


Total Points: 65

Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 44.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 52
Defense: 21.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

Ole Miss's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202508/30Ole Miss63Georgia State7Ole MissOle Miss -38.5Ole Miss62.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Ole Miss111 Overs
Georgia State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#135) Georgia State Info
Power Rating: -22.21 #135
Offense Rating: 2.00 #121
Defense Rating: 26.96 #132
Overall SP+ Rating: -18.8 #127
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.5 #108
Defense SP+ Rating: 40.1 #133
Talent Rating: 596.00 #94
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #56
Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 37%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 1.17 PPO
Awful Run Success 30%
Bad Pass Success 42%
Poor OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 54%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.88 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 53%
Awful Pass Def Success 59%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Georgia State Notes
(8/1) DBs full rebuild, could struggle badly early
(8/1) RB all new, decent portal adds, have depth
(8/1) OL poor LY, 1/5 back. 8 portals, 4 P4. Jump?
(8/1) Def poor LY, only 9 portals? Can't stop run
(8/1) Probably a year away from bowl, 3-4 win team
(7/13) HC McGee crootin big, #1 SBC class
(5/2) WR 3 portals, retaining Ted Hurst a huge win
(3/24) QB Veilleux back, JAG. 2 portals added.
(3/24) New OC Jackson former Browns HC (NFL)
(3/24) New DC Pearson 1st time FBS DC.

Georgia State Highlights
Georgia State offense is explosive (#7)

Georgia State Deficiencies
Georgia State has a really bad Offense
Georgia State has a bad TO Margin (#107)
Georgia State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#133)
Georgia State throws a Lot of Interceptions (#121)
Georgia State offense is really bad (#116)
Georgia State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#131)
Georgia State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#134)
Georgia State run game is really bad (#131)
Georgia State offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Georgia State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Georgia State has a bad defense (#133)
Georgia State Does Not Stuff Runs (#127)
Georgia State has a bad defensive line (#127)
Georgia State has a bad red zone defense (#117)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatMISSGAST
OverallOver#48#93
OffenseOff#48#80
DefenseDef#65#93
Special TeamsST#68#104
PassingPass#57#49
RushingRush#22#74
Run BlockRBLK#95#96
Pass BlockPBLK#89#104
Route RunningWR Rt#20#44
TacklingTkl#81#59
Run DefenseR Def#58#93
Pass Rush DefPRush#107#95
Coverage DefCov#41#84

Rematch from Week 1
Ole Miss -38.5 (62.5)
Ole Miss won vs Georgia State this year (63-7)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: GAST | MISS
Depth Chart: GAST | MISS
Rosters: GAST | MISS
(#21) Ole Miss Info
Power Rating: 25.48 #21
Offense Rating: 26.64 #14
Defense Rating: 3.29 #44
Overall SP+ Rating: 22.6 #5
Offense SP+ Rating: 38.5 #7
Defense SP+ Rating: 16.2 #13
Talent Rating: 870.00 #33
Blue Chip Ratio: 40 #18
Expected Record: 9.5 - 2.5

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
Great Offense Success Rate of 55%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 5.25 PPO
Good Run Success 52%
Great Pass Success 58%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 40%
Avg in Scoring Position 3 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 47%
Good Pass Def Success 33%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Record at home: 2 - 0 (2 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

Ole Miss Notes
(9/14) QB2 Chambliss a baller, Def is bad, Flag issues
(9/13) QB Simmons out vs Ark, Chambliss starting
(7/28) Portal TE Hasz will miss most of '25. Big blow
(6/6) WR added 5 portals, still a top 10 unit via PFF
(6/2) WR has 5 players with 400+ yds, 4 are portals
(5/19) Kiffin & OC Weis Jr want to push tempo TY
(5/19) RB D Taylor (1k LY, Troy) added post spring
(5/19) OL rebuild 1/5. 5 portal adds (3 P5/2 G5).
(5/19) Def rebuild. DL talent is good, 8 DB portals!?
(5/11) OL bottom 1/3 in exp & 62% comes from portals

Ole Miss Highlights
Ole Miss in Undefeated
Ole Miss is Undefeated at Home
Ole Miss is Undefeated vs Spread at Home

Ole Miss has Really Good Running Game (#25)
Ole Miss offense is efficent (#17)
Ole Miss offense is good in red zone (#24)
Ole Miss offense is good on 3rd downs
Ole Miss Secondary is very good (#20)

Ole Miss Deficiencies
Ole Miss Commits a Lot of Penalties (#103)
Ole Miss throws a Lot of Interceptions (#121)
Ole Miss gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#113)
Ole Miss Does Not Stuff Runs (#131)
Ole Miss has a bad defensive line (#132)


  
Georgia State's OC Hue Jackson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
TJ Finley (Tr)324768%351137.5
Cameran Brown (Tr)253768%257406.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rashad Amos (Tr)2614015.429
Branson Robinson (Tr)187904.447
Cameran Brown (Tr)135814.522
TJ Peyton455013.849
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ted Hurst18275215.352
Javon Robinson (Tr)10146214.644
Leo Blackburn (Tr)75818.321
Camden Overton (Tr)552110.420

View Georgia State's Full Roster
Georgia State's DC Travis Pearson
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josiah Robinson204100
Jordan Huff (Tr)151002
Deuce Fillmore140001
Deuce Walker130000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josiah Robinson204100
Alex Mullings21100
D-Icey Hopkins103100
Marlin Dean (Tr)103120
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Damaine Wilson110003
Jordan Huff (Tr)151002
Bernard Causey III (Tr)62102

Ole Miss's OC Charlie Weis Jr.
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Austin Simmons345661%5804410.4
Trinidad Chambliss (Tr)253571%4122011.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kewan Lacy (Tr)6129054.842
Logan Diggs997110.851
Trinidad Chambliss (Tr)228323.817
Austin Simmons166914.314
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Harrison Wallace III (Tr)15339222.655
Deuce Alexander (Tr)10155015.535
Dae'Quan Wright5142128.464
Cayden Lee696016.062

View Ole Miss's Full Roster
Ole Miss's DC Pete Golding
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Dottery231002
Jaden Yates (Tr)180000
Zxavian Harris174221
Kamarion Franklin140030
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zxavian Harris174221
William Echoles111120
Princewill Umanmielen (Tr)72110
TJ Dottery231002
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Wydett Williams (Tr)121004
Nick Cull80003
TJ Dottery231002