LSU at Ole Miss - 2025 Matchup Preview
LSU logo (#3)LSU Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels(#13)Ole Miss logo
Saturday, September 27th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium - Oxford, MS  (SEC)

 
Tigers (3 - 0) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Brian Kelly (28 - 11)
Avg Score : 20 - 9 (17 - 10 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 3 (#21)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 5) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
MISS 3rd straight Home Game
MISS is playing their 5th straight game
LSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Ole Miss -2.5   (SP+ MISS -5)

Projected Score: LSU: 23 - MISS: 26 (49)
MISS Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
LSU Travel: 289 miles
Rebels (3 - 0) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Lane Kiffin (43 - 18)
Avg Score : 45 - 22 (52 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 2.5 (#13)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
 
LSU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 LSU at Clemson+3.557.5W 17 - 10UY
Sat 9/6 LSU vs Louisiana Tech-36.549.5W 23 - 7UN
Sat 9/13 LSU vs Florida-5.547.5W 20 - 10UY
Sat 9/20 LSU vs SE Louisiana-46.5
Sat 9/27 LSU at Ole Miss+2.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 LSU vs South Carolina-13
Sat 10/18 LSU at Vanderbilt-2.5
Sat 10/25 LSU vs Texas A&M-2.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 LSU at Alabama+8.5
Sat 11/15 LSU vs Arkansas-10
Sat 11/22 LSU vs Western Kentucky-29.5
Sat 11/29 LSU at Oklahoma+6

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 5, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for LSU's Schedule
Ole Miss's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Ole Miss vs Georgia State-38.562.5W 63 - 7OY
Sat 9/6 Ole Miss at Kentucky-8.051.5W 30 - 23ON
Sat 9/13 Ole Miss vs Arkansas-3.560.5W 41 - 35OY
Sat 9/20 Ole Miss vs Tulane-11.561.5
Sat 9/27 Ole Miss vs LSU-2.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Ole Miss vs Washington State-33
Sat 10/18 Ole Miss at Georgia+6.5
Sat 10/25 Ole Miss at Oklahoma+6.5
Sat 11/1 Ole Miss vs South Carolina-13
Sat 11/8 Ole Miss vs The Citadel-46.5
Sat 11/15 Ole Miss vs Florida-7.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29 Ole Miss at Mississippi State-6

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ole Miss's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LSU#109 (.09)39% (103)2032% (126)2.07 (129)11144% (65)2352.63 (123)#20 (-.03)38% (60)943% (91)35% (44)2.7 (40)63.31.32
MISS#22 (.38)55% (17)44.752% (30)2.76 (90)21458% (9)3315.25 (24)#115 (.26)40% (75)21.747% (104)33% (33)3 (50)66.71.30.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LSU#30 (.25)45% (38)42% (89)2.92 (90)10847% (24)2913.99 (60)#92 (.21)41% (60)41% (54)41% (73)3.44 (30)45.71.21
MISS#4 (.34)47% (19)44% (76)3.02 (72)16451% (3)3174 (58)#6 (.04)35% (3)35% (6)36% (13)2.98 (8)68.50.91.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LSU Offense3201738.6%2.631.3213451112353.744%55%32%44%17%.09
MISS Defense321.72140.2%30.7 - - - - - 53%47%47%33%15%.26
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LSU Defense391038%2.72 - - - - - 36%64%43%35%18%-.03
MISS Offense344.75254.5%5.251.326544214331558%41%52%58%14%.38

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
LSU332:0520.741%0%7.363.31.3242.3129
Ole Miss327:102650%100%7.366.71.30.73.71.3028.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LSU Offense344% (104)32% (126)30110.73.72 (109)-.03 (115)2.07 (129)58% (109)10% (97)1.04 (49)
MISS Defense353% (97)47% (104) - - - - .38 (131)3.57 (132)89% (119)6% (125)1.29 (122)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LSU Defense336% (3)43% (91) - - - - -.02 (42)2.58 (50)100% (127)6% (120)0.58 (5)
MISS Offense358% (24)52% (30)43213.7510 (10).18 (53)2.76 (90)85% (26)7% (45)0.79 (110)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LSU Offense355% (36)44% (65)23.335.72356.610.13 (90)2 (60).2 (92)1.4 (111)33% (96)34% (53).23 (93)7% (104)1.9 (75)
MISS Defense347% (42)33% (33) - - - - - - 1 (87).12 (40)1.7 (101)37% (27)28% (60).34 (89)9% (20)2.4 (124)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LSU Defense364% (134)35% (44) - - - - - - 6 (2)-.04 (17)1.4 (40)35% (50)17% (19)-.2 (3)12% (3)2.1 (78)
MISS Offense341% (113)58% (9)19.730.3330.710.916.86 (34)4 (121).74 (5)1.8 (21)25% (21)46% (14).68 (20)6% (100)2 (65)

LSU's Power Ratings
LSU's Power Rating: 29.06 #12
LSU's Offense Rating: 20.50 #30
LSU's Defense Rating: -8.56 #5
2025 Talent Rating: 1042.00 #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 71% #4
LSU's 2025 Expected Record: 9.0 - 3.0
LSU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.4 #17
LSU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.1 #25
LSU's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.7 #15

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
LSU: 29.06   Ole Miss: 25.48

SP+ Ratings Matchup
LSU: 17.4   Ole Miss: 22.6




Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: 25.48 #21
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: 26.64 #14
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: 3.29 #44
2025 Talent Rating: 870.00 #33
Blue Chip Ratio: 40 #18
Ole Miss's 2025 Expected Record: 9.5 - 2.5
Ole Miss's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 22.6 #5
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.5 #7
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.2 #13

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


LSU Scoring
Offense: 20 PPG
Offense on Road: 17
Defense: 9 PPG
Defense on Road: 10

LSU's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Ole Miss 26
LSU 23


Total Points: 49

Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 44.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 52
Defense: 21.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

Ole Miss's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/12LSU29Ole Miss26LSUOle Miss -3.5LSU64.5Under
202309/30Ole Miss55LSU49Ole MissLSU -3Ole Miss67.0Over
202210/22LSU45Ole Miss20LSUOle Miss -0.0LSU64.0Over
202110/23Ole Miss31LSU17Ole MissOle Miss -9.0Ole Miss76.5Under
202012/19LSU53Ole Miss48LSUOle Miss -0.0LSU74.5Over
201911/16Ole Miss37LSU58LSULSU -21NA66.0Over
201809/29LSU45Ole Miss16LSULSU -10.5LSU61.0Push
201710/21Ole Miss24LSU40LSULSU -6.5LSU59.0Over
201610/22LSU38Ole Miss21LSULSU -4.5LSU59.0Push
201511/21Ole Miss38LSU17Ole MissOle Miss -4.5Ole Miss58.5Under
201410/25LSU10Ole Miss7LSUOle Miss -3LSU0
201310/19Ole Miss27LSU24Ole MissLSU -8Ole Miss0
201211/17LSU41Ole Miss35LSU
201111/19Ole Miss3LSU52LSU
201011/20LSU43Ole Miss36LSU
200911/21Ole Miss25LSU23Ole Miss
200811/22LSU13Ole Miss31Ole Miss
200711/17Ole Miss24LSU41LSU
200611/18LSU23Ole Miss20LSU
200511/19Ole Miss7LSU40LSU
200411/20LSU27Ole Miss24LSU
200311/22Ole Miss14LSU17LSU
200110/27LSU24Ole Miss35Ole Miss
200011/10Ole Miss9LSU20LSU
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Ole Miss745 Overs
LSU1773 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams15 - 910 - 16 - 04 - 1
Road Teams9 - 151 - 101 - 40 - 6

(#12) LSU Info
Power Rating: 29.06 #12
Offense Rating: 20.50 #30
Defense Rating: -8.56 #5
Overall SP+ Rating: 17.4 #17
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.1 #25
Defense SP+ Rating: 16.7 #15
Talent Rating: 1042.00 #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 71% #4
Expected Record: 9.0 - 3.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 44%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.63 PPO
Awful Run Success 32%
Avg Pass Success 44%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 38%
Good in Scoring Position 2.7 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 43%
Good Pass Def Success 35%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

LSU has lost 1 straight
LSU has won 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 0 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

LSU Notes
(9/15) Nussmeier dealing w/ torso injury after UF
(8/30) Def incredible vs Clemson, Off enough in W
(6/26) WRs Brown (UK) & Anderson(OU) are weapons
(6/7) Big yr for staff. Clemson/UF early set the tone
(6/7) LB Whit Weeks a top LB via PFF, LB Unit good
(5/23) Safeties Cooley & Haulcy a top duo in CFB
(5/16) DE portals Pyburn (UF) & Payton (FSU) huge
(3/22) Top portal class, 10 P4 starters from LY
(3/20) TE's are massive. Sharp (OU) v athletic.
(3/18) QB Nussmeier could be special, good depth

LSU Highlights
LSU in Undefeated

LSU defense does not give up big plays (#19)
LSU Secondary is very good (#3)
LSU defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#2)

LSU Deficiencies
LSU has a really bad Offense
LSU Can Not Run the Ball (#116)
LSU Commits a Lot of Penalties (#103)
LSU offense is really bad (#103)
LSU Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#122)
LSU offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#123)
LSU run game is really bad (#126)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatMISSLSU
OverallOver#48#63
OffenseOff#48#89
DefenseDef#65#32
Special TeamsST#68#98
PassingPass#57#31
RushingRush#22#96
Run BlockRBLK#95#110
Pass BlockPBLK#89#22
Route RunningWR Rt#20#86
TacklingTkl#81#64
Run DefenseR Def#58#26
Pass Rush DefPRush#107#79
Coverage DefCov#41#12

Previous Matchups
LSU beat Ole Miss last year (29-26)
Ole Miss beat LSU in 2023 (55-49)
LSU beat Ole Miss in 2022 (45-20)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: LSU | MISS
Depth Chart: LSU | MISS
Rosters: LSU | MISS
(#21) Ole Miss Info
Power Rating: 25.48 #21
Offense Rating: 26.64 #14
Defense Rating: 3.29 #44
Overall SP+ Rating: 22.6 #5
Offense SP+ Rating: 38.5 #7
Defense SP+ Rating: 16.2 #13
Talent Rating: 870.00 #33
Blue Chip Ratio: 40 #18
Expected Record: 9.5 - 2.5

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
Great Offense Success Rate of 55%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 5.25 PPO
Good Run Success 52%
Great Pass Success 58%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 40%
Avg in Scoring Position 3 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 47%
Good Pass Def Success 33%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Ole Miss has lost 1 straight
Ole Miss has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 0 (2 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

Ole Miss Notes
(9/14) QB2 Chambliss a baller, Def is bad, Flag issues
(9/13) QB Simmons out vs Ark, Chambliss starting
(7/28) Portal TE Hasz will miss most of '25. Big blow
(6/6) WR added 5 portals, still a top 10 unit via PFF
(6/2) WR has 5 players with 400+ yds, 4 are portals
(5/19) Kiffin & OC Weis Jr want to push tempo TY
(5/19) RB D Taylor (1k LY, Troy) added post spring
(5/19) OL rebuild 1/5. 5 portal adds (3 P5/2 G5).
(5/19) Def rebuild. DL talent is good, 8 DB portals!?
(5/11) OL bottom 1/3 in exp & 62% comes from portals

Ole Miss Highlights
Ole Miss in Undefeated
Ole Miss is Undefeated at Home
Ole Miss is Undefeated vs Spread at Home

Ole Miss has Really Good Running Game (#25)
Ole Miss offense is efficent (#17)
Ole Miss offense is good in red zone (#24)
Ole Miss offense is good on 3rd downs
Ole Miss Secondary is very good (#20)

Ole Miss Deficiencies
Ole Miss Commits a Lot of Penalties (#103)
Ole Miss throws a Lot of Interceptions (#121)
Ole Miss gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#113)
Ole Miss Does Not Stuff Runs (#131)
Ole Miss has a bad defensive line (#132)


  
LSU's OC Joe Sloan
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Garrett Nussmeier6910665%689326.5
Zavion Thomas11100%160016.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caden Durham4519624.451
Zavion Thomas98008.948
Harlem Berry85907.443
Barion Brown (Tr)115015.015
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Aaron Anderson18247013.739
Barion Brown (Tr)1514509.719
Bauer Sharp (Tr)997010.865
Zavion Thomas98919.923

View LSU's Full Roster
LSU's DC Blake Baker
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
West Weeks272100
Davhon Keys231110
Tamarcus Cooley (Tr)180000
Harold Perkins132132
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jacobian Guillory21100
Dominick McKinley31100
Harold Perkins132132
P.J. Woodland121112
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mansoor Delane (Tr)90014
Ashton Stamps10002
Harold Perkins132132

Ole Miss's OC Charlie Weis Jr.
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Austin Simmons345661%5804410.4
Trinidad Chambliss (Tr)253571%4122011.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kewan Lacy (Tr)6129054.842
Logan Diggs997110.851
Trinidad Chambliss (Tr)228323.817
Austin Simmons166914.314
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Harrison Wallace III (Tr)15339222.655
Deuce Alexander (Tr)10155015.535
Dae'Quan Wright5142128.464
Cayden Lee696016.062

View Ole Miss's Full Roster
Ole Miss's DC Pete Golding
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Dottery231002
Jaden Yates (Tr)180000
Zxavian Harris174221
Kamarion Franklin140030
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zxavian Harris174221
William Echoles111120
Princewill Umanmielen (Tr)72110
TJ Dottery231002
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Wydett Williams (Tr)121004
Nick Cull80003
TJ Dottery231002