LSU at Ole Miss - 2025 Matchup Preview
LSU logo (#4)LSU Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels(#13)Ole Miss logo
Saturday, September 27th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Ole Miss -2.5 (57.5) (-142)  Open: -2.5
Ole Miss 24 - LSU: 19  (SEC)

 
Tigers (7 - 6) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Frank Wilson (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 23 - 20 (16 - 20 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.7 - 5.3 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 4) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
MISS 3rd straight Home Game
MISS is playing their 5th straight game
LSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Ole Miss -14.5  (SP+ MISS -13)

Projected Score: LSU: 19 - MISS: 33 (52)
MISS Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
LSU Travel: 289 miles
Rebels (13 - 1) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Pete Golding (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 38 - 20 (39 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 12 - 1 (#3)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
LSU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 LSU at Clemson+3.557.5W 17 - 10UY
Sat 9/6 LSU vs Louisiana Tech-36.549.5W 23 - 7UN
Sat 9/13 LSU vs Florida-5.547.5W 20 - 10UY
Sat 9/20 LSU vs SE Louisiana-49.060.0W 56 - 10ON
Sat 9/27 LSU at Ole Miss+2.557.5L 19 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 LSU vs South Carolina-8.544.5W 20 - 10UY
Sat 10/18 LSU at Vanderbilt+1.548.5L 24 - 31ON
Sat 10/25 LSU vs Texas A&M+1.550.5L 25 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 LSU at Alabama+10.549.5L 9 - 20UN
Sat 11/15 LSU vs Arkansas-4.058.5W 23 - 22UN
Sat 11/22 LSU vs Western Kentucky-24.552.0W 13 - 10UN
Sat 11/29 LSU at Oklahoma+11.536.5L 13 - 17UY
Sat 12/27 LSU vs Houston+1.543.5L 35 - 38ON

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for LSU's Schedule
Ole Miss's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Ole Miss vs Georgia State-38.562.5W 63 - 7OY
Sat 9/6 Ole Miss at Kentucky-8.051.5W 30 - 23ON
Sat 9/13 Ole Miss vs Arkansas-3.560.5W 41 - 35OY
Sat 9/20 Ole Miss vs Tulane-12.561.5W 45 - 10UY
Sat 9/27 Ole Miss vs LSU-2.557.5W 24 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Ole Miss vs Washington State-33.558.5W 24 - 21UN
Sat 10/18 Ole Miss at Georgia+7.556.5L 35 - 43ON
Sat 10/25 Ole Miss at Oklahoma+5.552.5W 34 - 26OY
Sat 11/1 Ole Miss vs South Carolina-12.555.5W 30 - 14UY
Sat 11/8 Ole Miss vs The Citadel-51.563.5W 49 - 0UN
Sat 11/15 Ole Miss vs Florida-10.553.5W 34 - 24ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28 Ole Miss at Mississippi State-7.562.5W 38 - 19UY
Sat 12/20 Ole Miss vs Tulane-17.557.5W 41 - 10UY
Thu 1/1 Ole Miss vs Georgia+6.053.5W 39 - 34OY
Thu 1/8 Ole Miss vs Miami+3.052.0

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 5, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ole Miss's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LSU#125 (.04)38% (111)22.837% (122)2.46 (132)9940% (90)2093.2 (115)#20 (.06)38% (23)19.839% (29)37% (31)2.98 (17)5211.6
MISS#12 (.32)48% (17)37.645% (58)2.77 (104)17251% (5)2904.71 (9)#51 (.12)40% (49)20.444% (82)37% (24)2.94 (16)50.30.90.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LSU#30 (.25)45% (38)42% (89)2.92 (90)10847% (24)2913.99 (60)#92 (.21)41% (60)41% (54)41% (73)3.44 (30)45.71.21
MISS#4 (.34)47% (19)44% (76)3.02 (72)16451% (3)3174 (58)#6 (.04)35% (3)35% (6)36% (13)2.98 (8)68.50.91.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LSU Offense1322.816.438.4%3.2117308992093.743%56%37%40%18%.04
MISS Defense1420.415.639.8%2.940.9 - - - - - 50%49%44%37%17%.12
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LSU Defense1319.820.437.7%2.981.6 - - - - - 47%52%39%37%18%.06
MISS Offense1437.63947.9%4.710.9244621722904.652%47%45%51%13%.32

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
LSU1328:3617.535%58%6.35211.64.82.1129.6
Ole Miss1427:2123.945%69%5.450.30.90.94.91.9028.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LSU Offense1343% (118)37% (122)26.898.83.79 (107)- (124)2.46 (132)66% (105)11% (111)0.9 (93)
MISS Defense1450% (67)44% (82) - - - - .2 (120)3.12 (105)67% (42)10% (61)1.1 (125)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LSU Defense1347% (33)39% (29) - - - - .01 (21)2.6 (18)64% (23)9% (83)0.92 (48)
MISS Offense1452% (46)45% (58)37.2171.84.636 (11).15 (48)2.77 (104)80% (21)8% (29)0.98 (61)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LSU Offense1356% (20)40% (90)21.232.12096.59.917 (50)7 (60).16 (112)1.4 (128)36% (129)30% (79).21 (99)7% (103)1.9 (93)
MISS Defense1449% (76)37% (24) - - - - - - 8 (100).1 (14)1.5 (49)33% (47)28% (56).23 (46)7% (41)2.1 (90)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LSU Defense1352% (115)37% (31) - - - - - - 17 (22).14 (26)1.6 (78)35% (23)27% (35).2 (29)9% (6)2 (70)
MISS Offense1447% (84)51% (5)20.531.3290.19.314.223 (50)8 (60).49 (6)1.6 (50)28% (22)39% (6).6 (4)6% (50)2.2 (14)

LSU's Power Ratings
LSU's Power Rating: 15.73  #31
LSU's Offense Rating: 6.88  #80
LSU's Defense Rating: -8.85  #7
2025 Talent Rating: 1042.00  #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 71%  #4
LSU's 2025 Expected Record: 7.7 - 5.3
LSU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.6  #33
LSU's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5  #90
LSU's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.0  #9

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
LSU: 15.73   Ole Miss: 27.16

SP+ Ratings Matchup
LSU: 9.6   Ole Miss: 22.8




Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: 27.16  #8
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: 21.98  #16
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: -5.48  #12
2025 Talent Rating: 870.00  #33
Blue Chip Ratio: 40  #18
Ole Miss's 2025 Expected Record: 12.0 - 1.0
Ole Miss's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 22.8  #7
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.0  #8
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.9  #17

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


LSU Scoring
Offense: 22.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.4
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.4

LSU's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Ole Miss 33
LSU 19


Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
Ole Miss 25
LSU 20

Total Points: 45

Based on Entire Season
Ole Miss 29
LSU 19

Total Points: 48
Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 37.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 39
Defense: 20.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.6

Ole Miss's 2025 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record at home: 9 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/27Ole Miss24LSU19Ole Miss -2.5Ole Miss57.5Under
202410/12LSU29Ole Miss26Ole Miss -3.5LSU64.5Under
202309/30Ole Miss55LSU49LSU -3Ole Miss67.0Over
202210/22LSU45Ole Miss20Ole Miss -0.0LSU64.0Over
202110/23Ole Miss31LSU17Ole Miss -9.0Ole Miss76.5Under
202012/19LSU53Ole Miss48Ole Miss -0.0LSU74.5Over
201911/16Ole Miss37LSU58LSU -21NA66.0Over
201809/29LSU45Ole Miss16LSU -10.5LSU61.0Push
201710/21Ole Miss24LSU40LSU -6.5LSU59.0Over
201610/22LSU38Ole Miss21LSU -4.5LSU59.0Push
201511/21Ole Miss38LSU17Ole Miss -4.5Ole Miss58.5Under
201410/25LSU10Ole Miss7Ole Miss -3LSU0
201310/19Ole Miss27LSU24LSU -8Ole Miss0
201211/17LSU41Ole Miss35
201111/19Ole Miss3LSU52
201011/20LSU43Ole Miss36
200911/21Ole Miss25LSU23
200811/22LSU13Ole Miss31
200711/17Ole Miss24LSU41
200611/18LSU23Ole Miss20
200511/19Ole Miss7LSU40
200411/20LSU27Ole Miss24
200311/22Ole Miss14LSU17
200110/27LSU24Ole Miss35
200011/10Ole Miss9LSU20
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Ole Miss855 Overs
LSU1774 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams16 - 911 - 17 - 04 - 1
Road Teams9 - 161 - 111 - 40 - 7

(#31) LSU at (#8) MISS
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatLSUMISS
Power RatePwr #31 #8
SP+SP+ #33 #7
Perf GradeGrade #83 #17
OffenseOff #102 #22
DefenseDef #39 #37
Spec TeamsST #65 #24
TalentTal #8 #33
Blue ChipsBC% #4 #18
LSU Notes
(12/6) DC Blake Baker will stay on under Kiffin
(12/1) Hired Lane Kiffin, Weis will be OC, more to come
(11/26) Nussmeier doubtful vs OU, Van Buren gets 3rd start
(10/27) OC Joe Sloan fired, Alex Atkins (TE/RGC) int.
(10/26) Brian Kelly fired, AHS Frank Wilson interim
(10/25) OTs exposed vs A&M. 2 straight L's, Off sucks
(10/24) Have real issues at LT. May play BU C Chester, woof
(10/22) LB Whit Weeks out for A&M game (ankle)
(10/20) LT Tyree Adams out multiple games (A&M/Bama)
(10/18) Def was bad vs Vandy, Run Off bad, Nuss had no time
(10/18) Kelly now 11-11 on the road after Vandy loss.
(10/12) Cannot score +20 pts vs FBS teams, Def really good
LSU Injury Report
Ole Miss Notes
(12/9) Hired OC John David Baker (ECU). Decent hire
(12/1) Hired DC Pete Golding after Kiffin left for LSU
(10/19) Def torched by UGA, 500 yds. Run Def concerning
(9/28) Huge W vs LSU, Def great, Off nearly 500 yds.
(9/28) Penalties and TOs are an issue and could cost 'em
(9/24) QB Chambliss starting vs LSU, has played well
(9/20) Killed Tulane, Rebs better than I thought. Threat
(9/20) Run Off meh besides Chambliss, who's a great QB
(9/15) W/ Simmons injury, Chambliss best QB?
(9/14) QB2 Chambliss a baller, Def is bad, Flag issues
(7/28) Portal TE Hasz will miss most of '25. Big blow
(6/6) WR added 5 portals, still a top 10 unit via PFF
Ole Miss Injury Report
LSU on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
LSU OffMISS Def
Perf GradePerf #102 #37
SuccessSuc #111 #49
ExplosiveExp #114 #85
PPAPPA #125 #51
PowerPwr #80 #12
SP+SP+ #90 #17
Pts POPPO #115 #16
HavocHav #111 #53
LSU Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
LSU OffMISS Def
Run GameRun #121 #26
Run SuccessRSuc #122 #82
Run ExplRExp #93 #125
PPAExp #124 #120
Run BlockR Blk #134 -
OL YdsOLY #132 #105
Stuff RateStuff #131 #86
TackleTak -  #31
LSU Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
LSU OffMISS Def
Pass GamePass #39 #63
Pass SuccessPSuc #90 #24
Pass ExplPExl #128 #49
PPAExp #112 #14
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #60 #89
F7 HavocF7 #111 #61
DB HavocDB #103 #41
Ole Miss on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatMISS OffLSU Def
Perf GradePerf #22 #39
SuccessSuc #17 #23
ExplosiveExp #38 #66
PPAPPA #12 #20
PowerPwr #16 #7
SP+SP+ #8 #9
Pts POPPO #9 #17
HavocHav #36 #26
Ole Miss Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MISS OffLSU Def
Run GameRun #15 #64
Run SuccessRSuc #58 #29
Run ExplRExp #61 #48
PPAExp #48 #21
Run BlockR Blk #101 -
OL YdsOLY #104 #18
Stuff RateStuff #109 #10
TackleTak -  #86
Ole Miss Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatMISS OffLSU Def
Pass GamePass #32 #22
Pass SuccessPSuc #5 #31
Pass ExplPExl #50 #78
PPAExp #6 #26
Pass Block/RushP Blk #26 #96
F7 HavocF7 #29 #83
DB HavocDB #50 #6
Program Comparison
MISS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'25 Profile: Remains Title Contenders

LSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Down to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 84° - Wind: 7 mph
Rematch from Week 5
Ole Miss -2.5 (57.5)
Ole Miss won vs LSU this year (24-19)

Previous Matchups
LSU beat Ole Miss last year (29-26)
Ole Miss beat LSU in 2023 (55-49)
LSU beat Ole Miss in 2022 (45-20)

  
LSU's OC Alex Atkins (Int) (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Garrett Nussmeier19428867%19271256.7
Michael Van Buren Jr. (Tr)9415162%1010826.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caden Durham11150534.551
Harlem Berry10449124.743
Ju'Juan Johnson4115523.856
Michael Van Buren Jr. (Tr)4812912.735
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Barion Brown (Tr)53532110.041
Zavion Thomas41488411.962
Trey'Dez Green33433713.142
Aaron Anderson33398012.139

View LSU's Full Roster

LSU's DC Blake Baker (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Davhon Keys894162
A.J. Haulcy (Tr)881004
West Weeks768311
Tamarcus Cooley (Tr)702012
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Harold Perkins558462
West Weeks768311
DJ Pickett353203
Damien Shanklin22200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mansoor Delane (Tr)4500111
P.J. Woodland382128
Patrick Payton (Tr)335126

MISS's OC TBD (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Trinidad Chambliss (Tr)24136267%32981939.1
Austin Simmons457560%744459.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kewan Lacy (Tr)2731366215.059
Trinidad Chambliss (Tr)12450684.141
Logan Diggs2917946.251
Deuce Alexander (Tr)1812306.831
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Harrison Wallace III (Tr)48738315.455
Deuce Alexander (Tr)41664216.288
De'Zhaun Stribling (Tr)43612614.275
Dae'Quan Wright34553416.364

View Ole Miss's Full Roster

MISS's DC Pete Golding (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Dottery835112
Suntarine Perkins6892114
Wydett Williams (Tr)601008
Kamarion Franklin5774142
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Princewill Umanmielen (Tr)34128131
William Echoles579563
Kamarion Franklin5774142
Zxavian Harris468362
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Wydett Williams (Tr)601008
Kapena Gushiken (Tr)501015
Suntarine Perkins6892114