Arkansas at Ole Miss - 2025 Matchup Preview
Arkansas logo Arkansas Razorbacks at Ole Miss Rebels(#17)Ole Miss logo
Saturday, September 13th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Ole Miss -3.5 (60.5) (-175)  Open: 0.0
Ole Miss 41 - Arkansas: 35  (SEC)

 
Razorbacks (2 - 4) (2 - 4 - 0)
Coach Bobby Petrino (Int) (34 - 15)
Avg Score : 36 - 31 (32 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.4 - 8.6 (#120)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 8) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Temp: 91.6° (29% Hum)
Our Line: Ole Miss -18  (SP+ MISS -11)

Projected Score: ARK: 21 - MISS: 39 (59)
MISS Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
ARK Travel: 287 miles
Rebels (6 - 0) (4 - 2 - 0)
Coach Lane Kiffin (43 - 18)
Avg Score : 38 - 19 (39 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.4 - 1.6 (#6)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 5) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
 
Arkansas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arkansas vs Alabama A&M-45.562.5W 52 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Arkansas vs Arkansas State-23.562.0W 56 - 14OY
Sat 9/13 Arkansas at Ole Miss+3.560.5L 35 - 41ON
Sat 9/20 Arkansas at Memphis-7.059.5L 31 - 32ON
Sat 9/27 Arkansas vs Notre Dame+5.564.5L 13 - 56ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Arkansas at Tennessee+10.068.5L 31 - 34UY
Sat 10/18 Arkansas vs Texas A&M+7.561.5
Sat 10/25 Arkansas vs Auburn+8
Sat 11/1 Arkansas vs Mississippi State+2.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Arkansas at LSU+15
Sat 11/22 Arkansas at Texas+17.5
Sat 11/29 Arkansas vs Missouri+14.5

Total: Elite: 8, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 8, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arkansas's Schedule
Ole Miss's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Ole Miss vs Georgia State-38.562.5W 63 - 7OY
Sat 9/6 Ole Miss at Kentucky-8.051.5W 30 - 23ON
Sat 9/13 Ole Miss vs Arkansas-3.560.5W 41 - 35OY
Sat 9/20 Ole Miss vs Tulane-12.561.5W 45 - 10UY
Sat 9/27 Ole Miss vs LSU-2.557.5W 24 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Ole Miss vs Washington State-33.558.5W 24 - 21UN
Sat 10/18 Ole Miss at Georgia+7.554.5
Sat 10/25 Ole Miss at Oklahoma+4
Sat 11/1 Ole Miss vs South Carolina-16
Sat 11/8 Ole Miss vs The Citadel-48.5
Sat 11/15 Ole Miss vs Florida-11
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28 Ole Miss at Mississippi State-8

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 5, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ole Miss's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARK#7 (.4)53% (3)36.356% (3)3.46 (11)21951% (12)2934.42 (43)#133 (.34)50% (133)30.753% (134)47% (117)4.78 (130)47.81.81
MISS#26 (.31)50% (16)37.849% (29)2.8 (87)20551% (8)3114.74 (23)#63 (.16)41% (64)19.247% (114)35% (18)3.28 (31)73.81.30.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARK#27 (.25)48% (13)52% (5)3.23 (38)16844% (41)2483.95 (64)#45 (.13)42% (66)39% (32)44% (100)3.31 (22)56.31.71
MISS#4 (.34)47% (19)44% (76)3.02 (72)16451% (3)3174 (58)#6 (.04)35% (3)35% (6)36% (13)2.98 (8)68.50.91.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARK Offense636.332.353.4%4.421.8265122192936.250%50%56%51%15%.4
MISS Defense619.218.440.8%3.280.7 - - - - - 50%50%47%35%15%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARK Defense630.735.750%4.781 - - - - - 51%49%53%47%16%.34
MISS Offense637.839.450%4.741.3265162053114.857%43%49%51%14%.31

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Arkansas629:5925.857%40%5.347.81.815.71.8027
Ole Miss628:2325.751%83%7.873.81.30.74.21.5027.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARK Offense650% (77)56% (3)35.2218.76.214 (28).34 (8)3.46 (11)83% (18)8% (43)1.05 (39)
MISS Defense650% (71)47% (114) - - - - .25 (126)3.31 (128)74% (83)8% (117)1.09 (110)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARK Defense651% (82)53% (134) - - - - .31 (134)3.15 (114)79% (107)9% (83)1 (87)
MISS Offense657% (25)49% (29)42.7205.34.816 (20).13 (66)2.8 (87)83% (18)8% (26)0.83 (117)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARK Offense650% (60)51% (12)20.732.8293.38.914.215 (13)5 (77).49 (16)1.7 (29)29% (43)44% (4).66 (4)7% (103)2.3 (14)
MISS Defense650% (70)35% (18) - - - - - - 3 (93).07 (18)1.5 (42)34% (32)29% (68).27 (65)8% (21)2 (84)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARK Defense649% (56)47% (117) - - - - - - 4 (62).37 (115)1.6 (89)28% (122)41% (135).52 (130)6% (52)1.9 (59)
MISS Offense643% (110)51% (8)19.8313111015.711 (49)5 (77).58 (6)1.7 (24)26% (19)41% (6).56 (18)6% (74)2 (77)

Arkansas's Power Ratings
Arkansas's Power Rating: 8.75  #53
Arkansas's Offense Rating: 28.64  #9
Arkansas's Defense Rating: 19.89  #125
2025 Talent Rating: 816.00  #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 14%  #33
Arkansas's 2025 Expected Record: 3.4 - 8.6
Arkansas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.7  #37
Arkansas's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.2  #9
Arkansas's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.8  #73

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas: 8.75   Ole Miss: 27.65

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas: 10.7   Ole Miss: 21.5




Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: 27.65  #12
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: 26.40  #14
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: -2.40  #25
2025 Talent Rating: 870.00  #33
Blue Chip Ratio: 40  #18
Ole Miss's 2025 Expected Record: 10.4 - 1.6
Ole Miss's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 21.5  #6
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7  #13
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.6  #16

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Arkansas Scoring
Offense: 36.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 32.3
Defense: 30.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.7

Arkansas's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Ole Miss 39
Arkansas 21


Total Points: 59

Based on Last 4 Games
Ole Miss 31
Arkansas 22

Total Points: 53

Based on Entire Season
Ole Miss 36
Arkansas 27

Total Points: 63
Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 37.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 39.4
Defense: 19.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.4

Ole Miss's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/13Ole Miss41Arkansas35Ole Miss -3.5Ole Miss60.5Over
202411/02Arkansas31Ole Miss63Ole Miss -8Ole Miss54.0Over
202310/07Ole Miss27Arkansas20Ole Miss -13Arkansas61.5Under
202211/19Arkansas42Ole Miss27Ole Miss -0.0Arkansas67.5Over
202110/09Ole Miss52Arkansas51Ole Miss -5Arkansas67.0Over
202010/17Arkansas33Ole Miss21Arkansas -1.0Arkansas77.5Under
201909/07Ole Miss31Arkansas17Ole Miss -5Ole Miss50.5Under
201810/13Arkansas33Ole Miss37Ole Miss -6.5Arkansas66.5Over
201710/28Ole Miss37Arkansas38Ole Miss -2.5Arkansas62.0Over
201610/15Arkansas34Ole Miss30Ole Miss -6.5Arkansas65.0Under
201511/07Ole Miss52Arkansas53Ole Miss -11Arkansas55.0Over
201411/22Arkansas30Ole Miss0Ole Miss -2Arkansas0
201311/09Ole Miss34Arkansas24Ole Miss -17Arkansas0
201210/27Arkansas27Ole Miss30
201110/22Ole Miss24Arkansas29
201010/23Arkansas38Ole Miss24
200910/24Ole Miss30Arkansas17
200810/25Arkansas21Ole Miss23
200710/20Ole Miss8Arkansas44
200610/21Arkansas38Ole Miss3
200511/12Ole Miss17Arkansas28
200411/13Arkansas35Ole Miss3
200310/25Ole Miss19Arkansas7
200210/26Arkansas48Ole Miss28
200111/03Ole Miss56Arkansas58
200011/03Arkansas24Ole Miss38
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Ole Miss1237 Overs
Arkansas14104 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams15 - 117 - 64 - 53 - 1
Road Teams11 - 156 - 71 - 35 - 4

(#53) ARK at (#12) MISS
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatARKMISS
Power RatePwr #53 #12
SP+SP+ #37 #6
Perf GradeGrade #48 #41
OffenseOff #24 #36
DefenseDef #84 #57
Spec TeamsST #71 #98
TalentTal #48 #33
Blue ChipsBC% #33 #18

Arkansas Notes
(9/30) Def has no players, schematics almost don't matter
(9/30) Pittman fired, Petrino Interim, Def staff fired
(9/27) Damn break vs ND, Def mauled, Off awful. Green bad
(9/23) Have fumbled away 2 straight games, brutal
(9/23) QB Taylen Green leads CFB in total offense (Wk 5)
(9/19) Off hot start, QB Green great, WR Blake weapon
(9/19) Pass Def torched by Ole Miss, Run D held up
(8/17) OC & DC are fighting, nearly physically?
(8/17) Def front 7 biggest issue, pass rush SEC worst
(5/23) Hogs getting picked clean by portal, NIL bad
(5/23) OL returns 3/5. 5 portals. Best left via portal

Ole Miss Notes
(9/28) Huge W vs LSU, Def great, Off nearly 500 yds.
(9/28) Penalties and TOs are an issue and could cost 'em
(9/24) QB Chambliss starting vs LSU, has played well
(9/20) Killed Tulane, Rebs better than I thought. Threat
(9/20) Run Off meh besides Chambliss, who's a great QB
(9/15) W/ Simmons injury, Chambliss best QB?
(9/14) QB2 Chambliss a baller, Def is bad, Flag issues
(7/28) Portal TE Hasz will miss most of '25. Big blow
(6/6) WR added 5 portals, still a top 10 unit via PFF
(6/2) WR has 5 players with 400+ yds, 4 are portals
(5/19) Kiffin & OC Weis Jr want to push tempo TY
Arkansas on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
ARK OffMISS Def
Perf GradePerf #24 #57
SuccessSuc #3 #64
ExplosiveExp #30 #64
PPAPPA #7 #63
PowerPwr #9 #25
SP+SP+ #9 #16
Pts POPPO #43 #31
HavocHav #68 #84
Arkansas Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
ARK OffMISS Def
Run GameRun #1 #67
Run SuccessRSuc #3 #114
Run ExplRExp #39 #110
PPAExp #8 #126
Run BlockR Blk #76 -
OL YdsOLY #11 #128
Stuff RateStuff #73 #125
TackleTak -  #74
Arkansas Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
ARK OffMISS Def
Pass GamePass #42 #40
Pass SuccessPSuc #12 #18
Pass ExplPExl #29 #42
PPAExp #16 #18
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #17 #92
F7 HavocF7 #43 #117
DB HavocDB #103 #21
Ole Miss on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCatMISS OffARK Def
Perf GradePerf #36 #84
SuccessSuc #16 #133
ExplosiveExp #81 #80
PPAPPA #26 #133
PowerPwr #14 #125
SP+SP+ #13 #73
Pts POPPO #23 #130
HavocHav #48 #68
Ole Miss Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
MISS OffARK Def
Run GameRun #20 #75
Run SuccessRSuc #29 #134
Run ExplRExp #117 #87
PPAExp #66 #134
Run BlockR Blk #103 -
OL YdsOLY #87 #114
Stuff RateStuff #92 #42
TackleTak -  #12
Ole Miss Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCatMISS OffARK Def
Pass GamePass #50 #96
Pass SuccessPSuc #8 #117
Pass ExplPExl #24 #89
PPAExp #6 #115
Pass Block/RushP Blk #60 #57
F7 HavocF7 #26 #83
DB HavocDB #74 #52
Program Comparison
MISS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'25 Profile: Remains Title Contenders

ARK 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 92°
Rematch from Week 3
Ole Miss -3.5 (60.5)
Ole Miss won vs Arkansas this year (41-35)

Previous Matchups
Ole Miss beat Arkansas last year (63-31)
Ole Miss beat Arkansas in 2023 (27-20)
Arkansas beat Ole Miss in 2022 (42-27)

  
ARK's OC Bobby Petrino (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Taylen Green11918963%16541458.8
KJ Jackson5771%1061015.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Michael Washington8052456.653
Taylen Green7150437.164
Braylen Russell4021235.323
Rodney Hill73705.318
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
O'Mega Blake (Tr)35464313.333
Raylen Sharpe (Tr)21249211.937
Rohan Jones (Tr)7229332.762
CJ Brown14192213.726

View Arkansas's Full Roster

ARK's DC Chris Wilson (Int) (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Stephen Dix Jr.442000
Xavian Sorey Jr.422121
Julian Neal (Tr)342005
Larry Worth331001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Quincy Rhodes Jr.248540
Phillip Lee (Tr)225340
Miguel Mitchell311101
Bradley Shaw183111
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kani Walker (Tr)221006
Julian Neal (Tr)342005
Jordan Young (Tr)100003

MISS's OC Charlie Weis Jr. (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Trinidad Chambliss (Tr)8513065%1286719.9
Austin Simmons345661%5804410.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kewan Lacy (Tr)12658784.742
Trinidad Chambliss (Tr)6128134.641
Logan Diggs1813837.751
Deuce Alexander (Tr)127806.531
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Harrison Wallace III (Tr)17361221.255
Dae'Quan Wright16359322.464
Deuce Alexander (Tr)20349117.535
Cayden Lee15282218.862

View Ole Miss's Full Roster

MISS's DC Pete Golding (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Dottery372012
Jaden Yates (Tr)361000
Kamarion Franklin3132121
William Echoles285332
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
William Echoles285332
Princewill Umanmielen (Tr)154270
Zxavian Harris255231
Kamarion Franklin3132121
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Wydett Williams (Tr)251004
Sage Ryan (Tr)140003
Nick Cull100003