Arkansas at Ole Miss - 2025 Matchup Preview
Arkansas logo   Arkansas Razorbacks at Ole Miss Rebels  Ole Miss logo
Saturday, September 13th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Ole Miss -3.5 (60.5) (-175)  Open: 0.0
Ole Miss 41 - Arkansas: 35  (SEC)

 
Razorbacks (2 - 10) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Sam Pittman (29 - 31)
Avg Score : 33 - 34 (31 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 8) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Ole Miss -18.5  (SP+ MISS -19)
Projected Score: ARK: 21 - MISS: 40 (61)
MISS Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
ARK Travel: 287 miles
Rebels (13 - 2) (9 - 6 - 0)
Coach Lane Kiffin (43 - 18)
Avg Score : 37 - 21 (39 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 12 - 1 (#3)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 5) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
 
Arkansas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arkansas vs Alabama A&M-45.562.5W 52 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Arkansas vs Arkansas State-23.562.0W 56 - 14OY
Sat 9/13 Arkansas at Ole Miss+3.560.5L 35 - 41ON
Sat 9/20 Arkansas at Memphis-7.059.5L 31 - 32ON
Sat 9/27 Arkansas vs Notre Dame+5.564.5L 13 - 56ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Arkansas at Tennessee+10.068.5L 31 - 34UY
Sat 10/18 Arkansas vs Texas A&M+7.557.5L 42 - 45OY
Sat 10/25 Arkansas vs Auburn-2.555.5L 24 - 33ON
Sat 11/1 Arkansas vs Mississippi State-5.566.5L 35 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Arkansas at LSU+4.058.5L 22 - 23UY
Sat 11/22 Arkansas at Texas+10.557.5L 37 - 52ON
Sat 11/29 Arkansas vs Missouri+4.554.5L 17 - 31UN

Total: Elite: 8, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 8, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arkansas's Schedule
Ole Miss's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Ole Miss vs Georgia State-38.562.5W 63 - 7OY
Sat 9/6 Ole Miss at Kentucky-8.051.5W 30 - 23ON
Sat 9/13 Ole Miss vs Arkansas-3.560.5W 41 - 35OY
Sat 9/20 Ole Miss vs Tulane-12.561.5W 45 - 10UY
Sat 9/27 Ole Miss vs LSU-2.557.5W 24 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Ole Miss vs Washington State-33.558.5W 24 - 21UN
Sat 10/18 Ole Miss at Georgia+7.556.5L 35 - 43ON
Sat 10/25 Ole Miss at Oklahoma+5.552.5W 34 - 26OY
Sat 11/1 Ole Miss vs South Carolina-12.555.5W 30 - 14UY
Sat 11/8 Ole Miss vs The Citadel-51.563.5W 49 - 0UN
Sat 11/15 Ole Miss vs Florida-10.553.5W 34 - 24ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28 Ole Miss at Mississippi State-7.562.5W 38 - 19UY
Sat 12/20 Ole Miss vs Tulane-17.557.5W 41 - 10UY
Thu 1/1 Ole Miss vs Georgia+6.053.5W 39 - 34OY
Thu 1/8 Ole Miss vs Miami+3.052.5L 27 - 31ON

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 5, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ole Miss's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARK#27 (.25)48% (13)32.952% (5)3.23 (38)16844% (41)2483.95 (64)#45 (.13)42% (66)33.839% (32)44% (100)3.31 (22)56.31.71
MISS#4 (.34)47% (19)36.944% (76)3.02 (72)16451% (3)3174 (58)#6 (.04)35% (3)21.135% (6)36% (13)2.98 (8)68.50.91.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARK0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MISS0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARK Offense1332.931.248.2%3.951.7234161682484.951%48%52%44%19%.25
MISS Defense1321.115.635.3%2.981.6 - - - - - 47%53%35%36%25%.04
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARK Defense1333.836.441.5%3.311 - - - - - 50%50%39%44%14%.13
MISS Offense1336.93947.4%40.9234811643174.650%50%44%51%15%.34

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Arkansas1328:0722.643%59%6.456.31.714.41.9027.3
Ole Miss1326:0422.741%59%6.868.50.91.68.94.1029.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARK Offense1351% (64)52% (5)34.4167.94.932 (14).21 (29)3.23 (38)82% (13)12% (109)0.97 (67)
MISS Defense1347% (25)35% (6) - - - - -.04 (4)2.49 (7)74% (71)16% (1)0.88 (23)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARK Defense1350% (64)39% (32) - - - - -.01 (11)2.84 (42)79% (104)8% (123)0.82 (8)
MISS Offense1350% (75)44% (76)35.8164.24.627 (30).15 (58)3.02 (72)71% (85)10% (68)1.09 (26)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARK Offense1348% (71)44% (41)18.830.2248.48.213.214 (108)9 (48).3 (46)1.6 (42)32% (72)37% (17).43 (25)7% (106)2.2 (25)
MISS Defense1353% (115)36% (13) - - - - - - 11 (52).12 (20)1.6 (85)37% (5)23% (1).1 (3)8% (3)2.1 (68)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARK Defense1350% (70)44% (100) - - - - - - 8 (93).28 (92)1.5 (43)33% (48)27% (23).2 (25)7% (45)1.9 (37)
MISS Offense1350% (59)51% (3)20.530.5317.210.415.427 (20)6 (10).53 (3)1.6 (46)29% (28)38% (7).63 (2)5% (54)2.3 (12)

Arkansas's Power Ratings
Arkansas's Power Rating: 9.11  #43
Arkansas's Offense Rating: 24.32  #14
Arkansas's Defense Rating: 15.21  #81
2025 Talent Rating: 816.00  #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 14%  #33
Arkansas's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Arkansas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.1  #53
Arkansas's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.8  #16
Arkansas's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.4  #99

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas: 9.11   Ole Miss: 25.58

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas: 5.1   Ole Miss: 24.0




Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: 25.58  #9
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: 26.65  #7
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: 4.49  #21
2025 Talent Rating: 870.00  #33
Blue Chip Ratio: 40  #18
Ole Miss's 2025 Expected Record: 12.0 - 1.0
Ole Miss's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.0  #7
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.4  #3
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.3  #20

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Arkansas Scoring
Offense: 32.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 31.2
Defense: 33.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 36.4

Arkansas's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Ole Miss 40
Arkansas 21


Projected Total Points: 61
Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 36.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 39
Defense: 21.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.6

Ole Miss's 2025 Record
Record: 13 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 7
Record at home: 9 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/13Ole Miss41Arkansas35Ole Miss -3.5Ole Miss60.5Over
202411/02Arkansas31Ole Miss63Ole Miss -8Ole Miss54.0Over
202310/07Ole Miss27Arkansas20Ole Miss -13Arkansas61.5Under
202211/19Arkansas42Ole Miss27Ole Miss -0.0Arkansas67.5Over
202110/09Ole Miss52Arkansas51Ole Miss -5Arkansas67.0Over
202010/17Arkansas33Ole Miss21Arkansas -1.0Arkansas77.5Under
201909/07Ole Miss31Arkansas17Ole Miss -5Ole Miss50.5Under
201810/13Arkansas33Ole Miss37Ole Miss -6.5Arkansas66.5Over
201710/28Ole Miss37Arkansas38Ole Miss -2.5Arkansas62.0Over
201610/15Arkansas34Ole Miss30Ole Miss -6.5Arkansas65.0Under
201511/07Ole Miss52Arkansas53Ole Miss -11Arkansas55.0Over
201411/22Arkansas30Ole Miss0Ole Miss -2Arkansas0
201311/09Ole Miss34Arkansas24Ole Miss -17Arkansas0
201210/27Arkansas27Ole Miss30
201110/22Ole Miss24Arkansas29
201010/23Arkansas38Ole Miss24
200910/24Ole Miss30Arkansas17
200810/25Arkansas21Ole Miss23
200710/20Ole Miss8Arkansas44
200610/21Arkansas38Ole Miss3
200511/12Ole Miss17Arkansas28
200411/13Arkansas35Ole Miss3
200310/25Ole Miss19Arkansas7
200210/26Arkansas48Ole Miss28
200111/03Ole Miss56Arkansas58
200011/03Arkansas24Ole Miss38
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Ole Miss1237 Overs
Arkansas14104 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams15 - 117 - 64 - 53 - 1
Road Teams11 - 156 - 71 - 35 - 4

(#43) ARK at (#9) MISS
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatARKMISS
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #43 #9
SP+SP+ #53 #7
Perf GradeGrade #77 #12
OffenseOff #42 #9
DefenseDef #112 #41
Spec TeamsST #116 #18
TalentTal #48 #33
Blue ChipsBC% #33 #18
Arkansas Notes
(11/30) Hired Ryan Silverfield (Memphis). Meh hire IMO
(10/22) Defense is worst in CFB in Success Rate, Off great
(10/18) Off great vs A&M, Def torched as usual. 9 flags hurt
(9/30) Def has no players, schematics almost don't matter
(9/30) Pittman fired, Petrino Interim, Def staff fired
(9/27) Damn break vs ND, Def mauled, Off awful. Green bad
(9/23) Have fumbled away 2 straight games, brutal
(9/23) QB Taylen Green leads CFB in total offense (Wk 5)
(9/19) Off hot start, QB Green great, WR Blake weapon
(9/19) Pass Def torched by Ole Miss, Run D held up
(8/17) OC & DC are fighting, nearly physically?
(8/17) Def front 7 biggest issue, pass rush SEC worst
Arkansas Injury Report
Ole Miss Notes
(12/9) Hired OC John David Baker (ECU). Decent hire
(12/1) Hired DC Pete Golding after Kiffin left for LSU
(10/19) Def torched by UGA, 500 yds. Run Def concerning
(9/28) Huge W vs LSU, Def great, Off nearly 500 yds.
(9/28) Penalties and TOs are an issue and could cost 'em
(9/24) QB Chambliss starting vs LSU, has played well
(9/20) Killed Tulane, Rebs better than I thought. Threat
(9/20) Run Off meh besides Chambliss, who's a great QB
(9/15) W/ Simmons injury, Chambliss best QB?
(9/14) QB2 Chambliss a baller, Def is bad, Flag issues
(7/28) Portal TE Hasz will miss most of '25. Big blow
(6/6) WR added 5 portals, still a top 10 unit via PFF
Ole Miss Injury Report
Arkansas on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
ARK OffMISS Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #42 #41
SuccessSuc #13 #3
ExplosiveExp #80 #78
PPAPPA #27 #6
PowerPwr #14 #21
SP+SP+ #16 #20
Pts POPPO #64 #8
HavocHav #114 #1
Arkansas Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
ARK OffMISS Def
Run GameRun #2 #18
Run SuccessRSuc #5 #6
Run ExplRExp #67 #23
PPAExp #29 #4
Run BlockR Blk #70 -
OL YdsOLY #38 #7
Stuff RateStuff #83 #19
TackleTak -  #81
Arkansas Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
ARK OffMISS Def
Pass GamePass #67 #67
Pass SuccessPSuc #41 #13
Pass ExplPExl #42 #85
PPAExp #46 #20
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #80 #85
F7 HavocF7 #109 #1
DB HavocDB #106 #3
Ole Miss on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatMISS OffARK Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #9 #112
SuccessSuc #19 #66
ExplosiveExp #8 #29
PPAPPA #4 #45
PowerPwr #7 #81
SP+SP+ #3 #99
Pts POPPO #58 #22
HavocHav #54 #101
Ole Miss Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MISS OffARK Def
Run GameRun #14 #74
Run SuccessRSuc #76 #32
Run ExplRExp #26 #8
PPAExp #58 #11
Run BlockR Blk #94 -
OL YdsOLY #72 #42
Stuff RateStuff #92 #112
TackleTak -  #19
Ole Miss Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatMISS OffARK Def
Pass GamePass #14 #126
Pass SuccessPSuc #3 #100
Pass ExplPExl #46 #43
PPAExp #3 #92
Pass Block/RushP Blk #35 #69
F7 HavocF7 #68 #123
DB HavocDB #54 #45
Program Comparison
MISS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'25 Profile: Remains Title Contenders

ARK 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 3
Ole Miss -3.5 (60.5)
Ole Miss won vs Arkansas this year (41-35)

Previous Matchups
Ole Miss beat Arkansas last year (41-35)
Ole Miss beat Arkansas in 2024 (63-31)
Ole Miss beat Arkansas in 2023 (27-20)

  
ARK's OC Bobby Petrino (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Taylen Green19832661%271419118.3
KJ Jackson335461%441308.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Michael Washington168106886.457
Taylen Green13877985.664
Braylen Russell5528655.223
Raylen Sharpe (Tr)65409.041
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
O'Mega Blake (Tr)57760513.336
Raylen Sharpe (Tr)41592314.458
Rohan Jones (Tr)19519427.362
CJ Brown28319311.426

View Arkansas's Full Roster

ARK's DC Travis Williams (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavian Sorey Jr.818333
Stephen Dix Jr.794100
Larry Worth641001
Caleb Wooden (Tr)593013
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Quincy Rhodes Jr.4316860
Phillip Lee (Tr)316440
Xavian Sorey Jr.818333
Bradley Shaw505211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kani Walker (Tr)5231011
Julian Neal (Tr)5520010
Jordan Young (Tr)280016

MISS's OC Charlie Weis Jr. (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Trinidad Chambliss (Tr)29444566%39372238.8
Austin Simmons457560%744459.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kewan Lacy (Tr)3061567245.173
Trinidad Chambliss (Tr)13352784.041
Logan Diggs3318945.751
Damien Taylor (Tr)2813024.620
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Harrison Wallace III (Tr)61934415.355
De'Zhaun Stribling (Tr)55811614.775
Deuce Alexander (Tr)44684215.588
Cayden Lee44635314.462

View Ole Miss's Full Roster

MISS's DC Pete Golding (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Dottery986212
Suntarine Perkins81135125
Wydett Williams (Tr)731009
Kamarion Franklin6995143
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Princewill Umanmielen (Tr)45139131
Kamarion Franklin6995143
William Echoles6812565
Suntarine Perkins81135125
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Wydett Williams (Tr)731009
William Echoles6812565
Kapena Gushiken (Tr)551015