Michigan at Texas - 2025 Matchup Preview

Wednesday, December 31st 2025 (3:00 PM EST)
Texas -7.0 (50.0) (-210) Open: -5.5 | 46.0
Texas 41 - Michigan: 27 (Cheez-It Citrus Bowl)

Wolverines (9 - 4) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Sherrone Moore (8 - 5)
Avg Score : 28 - 20 (26 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 3.5 (#25)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Texas -3.5 (SP+ TEX -4)
Projected Score: MICH: 24 - TEX: 27 (51)
TEX Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
MICH Travel: 958 miles

Longhorns (10 - 3) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Steve Sarkisian (36 - 16)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (39 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 3.5 (#25)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
MICH Players
TEX Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Michigan's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Michigan vs New Mexico	-36.5	52.5	W 34 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/6	Michigan at Oklahoma	+3.0	47.5	L 13 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/13	Michigan vs Central Michigan	-27.5	42.5	W 63 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Michigan at Nebraska	-1.5	47.5	W 30 - 27	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Michigan vs Wisconsin	-17.5	42.5	W 24 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/11	Michigan at USC	+3.0	58.5	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/18	Michigan vs Washington	-4.5	50.5	W 24 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/25	Michigan at Michigan State	-13.5	47.5	W 31 - 20	O	N
Sat 11/1	Michigan vs Purdue	-21.0	48.5	W 21 - 16	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Michigan vs Northwestern	-10.0	41.5	W 24 - 22	O	N
Sat 11/22	Michigan at Maryland	-14.0	46.5	W 45 - 20	O	Y
Sat 11/29	Michigan vs Ohio State	+9.5	43.5	L 9 - 27	U	N
Wed 12/31	Michigan vs Texas	+7.0	50.0	L 27 - 41	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Michigan's Schedule

Texas's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Texas at Ohio State	+1.5	46.5	L 7 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/6	Texas vs San José State	-37.0	52.5	W 38 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/13	Texas vs UTEP	-39.5	52.5	W 27 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/20	Texas vs Sam Houston	-39.5	51.5	W 55 - 0	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Texas at Florida	-4.5	42.5	L 21 - 29	O	N
Sat 10/11	Texas vs Oklahoma	-2.5	44.5	W 23 - 6	U	Y
Sat 10/18	Texas at Kentucky	-12.5	45.5	W 16 - 13	U	N
Sat 10/25	Texas at Mississippi State	-8.5	48.5	W 45 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/1	Texas vs Vanderbilt	-3.5	48.5	W 34 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Texas at Georgia	+3.5	50.5	L 10 - 35	U	N
Sat 11/22	Texas vs Arkansas	-10.5	57.5	W 52 - 37	O	Y
Fri 11/28	Texas vs Texas A&M	+2.5	54.5	W 27 - 17	U	Y
Wed 12/31	Texas vs Michigan	-7.0	50.0	W 41 - 27	O	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MICH	#113 (.1)	40% (102)	27.5	41% (101)	3 (80)	149	40% (92)	123	4.18 (45)	#40 (.13)	38% (28)	20.4	38% (18)	39% (42)	3.48 (36)	36.8	1.5	1.2
TEX	#39 (.24)	46% (27)	30.5	49% (16)	2.95 (84)	152	44% (43)	241	4.03 (54)	#3 (-.01)	38% (22)	20.3	42% (61)	34% (7)	2.57 (3)	44.3	1.4	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MICH		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TEX		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MICH Offense	13	27.5	26.4	40.1%	4.18	1.5	15	272	149	123	4.5	60%	39%	41%	40%	15%	.1
TEX Defense	16	20.3	17	38%	2.57	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	42%	34%	21%	-.01

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MICH Defense	13	20.4	24.4	38.3%	3.48	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	42%	57%	38%	39%	19%	.13
TEX Offense	16	30.5	38.8	46.3%	4.03	1.4	20	393	152	241	4.7	46%	54%	49%	44%	16%	.24

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Michigan	13	28:57	15.2	43%	71%	3.7	36.8	1.5	1.2	5.6	2.4	2	30
Texas	16	26:42	19.8	43%	54%	5.4	44.3	1.4	1.8	6.2	2.5	1	31.4

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MICH Offense	13	60% (9)	41% (101)	33.3	148.5	4.5	18 (78)	.1 (86)	3 (80)	84% (7)	10% (73)	0.91 (91)
TEX Defense	16	50% (59)	42% (61)	-	-	-	-	-.04 (3)	2.79 (33)	55% (2)	14% (8)	0.72 (3)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MICH Defense	13	42% (1)	38% (18)	-	-	-	-	.04 (24)	2.72 (24)	82% (120)	11% (50)	0.85 (11)
TEX Offense	16	46% (98)	49% (16)	32.6	152.2	4.7	25 (41)	.13 (69)	2.95 (84)	67% (106)	11% (97)	0.91 (96)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MICH Offense	13	39% (126)	40% (92)	13.8	22.5	123.3	5.5	9	11 (122)	12 (85)	.12 (119)	1.4 (131)	33% (90)	30% (92)	.26 (96)	5% (51)	1.7 (133)
TEX Defense	16	50% (79)	34% (7)	-	-	-	-	-	-	20 (2)	.04 (3)	1.4 (14)	33% (53)	28% (35)	.14 (7)	8% (17)	1.6 (3)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MICH Defense	13	57% (134)	39% (42)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (52)	.21 (56)	1.6 (71)	36% (12)	28% (28)	.27 (54)	8% (10)	2.2 (109)
TEX Offense	16	54% (34)	44% (43)	19.6	29.5	240.9	8.2	12.3	35 (3)	12 (85)	.33 (34)	1.7 (28)	32% (71)	38% (9)	.51 (7)	5% (41)	2.1 (57)

Michigan's Power Ratings
Michigan's Power Rating: 15.18 #21
Michigan's Offense Rating: 16.26 #52
Michigan's Defense Rating: 1.08 #13
2025 Talent Rating: 1042.00 #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 50% #16
Michigan's 2025 Expected Record: 9.5 - 3.5
Michigan's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.4 #25
Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.9 #48
Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.0 #15

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan: 15.18 Texas: 17.045

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan: 12.4 Texas: 16.2

Texas's Power Ratings
Texas's Power Rating: 17.045 #14
Texas's Offense Rating: 19.54 #31
Texas's Defense Rating: 1.65 #14
2025 Talent Rating: 1074.00 #5
Blue Chip Ratio: 65 #6
Texas's 2025 Expected Record: 9.5 - 3.5
Texas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.2 #17
Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.9 #30
Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.9 #18

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Michigan Scoring
Offense: 27.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.4
Defense: 20.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.4

Michigan's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Texas 27
Michigan 24

Projected Total Points: 51

Texas Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.8
Defense: 20.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

Texas's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	12/31	Texas	41	Michigan	27	Texas -7.0	Texas	50.0	Over
2024	09/07	Michigan	12	Texas	31	Texas -7	Texas	42.0	Over
2004	01/01	Texas	38	Michigan	37

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Texas	3	2	2 Overs
Michigan	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 2	1 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 1

Michigan Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2025	Citrus Bowl	Michigan vs Texas	+7.0	50.0	L 27 - 41
2024	Reliaquest Bowl	Michigan vs Alabama	+16.5	45.5	W 19 - 13
2023	CFP Nat'l Title	Michigan vs Washington	-5.5	55.5	W 34 - 13
2023	CFP Semifinal	Michigan vs Alabama	-2.0	46.0	W 27 - 20
2022	CFP Semifinal	Michigan vs TCU	-8.0	56.0	L 45 - 51
2021	CFP Semifinal	Michigan vs Georgia	+7.5	47.0	L 11 - 34
2019	Citrus Bowl	Michigan vs Alabama	+8.5	62.0	L 16 - 35

Texas Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2025	Citrus Bowl	Texas vs Michigan	-7.0	50.0	W 41 - 27
2024	CFP Semifinal	Texas vs Ohio State	+6.5	51.5	L 14 - 28
2024	CFP Quarterfinal	Texas vs Arizona State	-13.5	52.5	W 39 - 31
2024	CFP 1st Round	Texas vs Clemson	-13.5	49.5	W 38 - 24
2023	CFP Semifinal	Texas vs Washington	-3.0	61.5	L 31 - 37
2022	Alamo Bowl	Texas vs Washington	-3.0	67.0	L 20 - 27
2020	Alamo Bowl	Texas vs Colorado	-9.5	63.5	W 55 - 23
2019	N/A	Texas vs Utah	+7.5	57.0	W 38 - 10

(#21) MICH at (#14) TEX

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MICH	TEX
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#21	#14
SP+SP+	#25	#17
Perf GradeGrade	#32	#13
OffenseOff	#47	#25
DefenseDef	#31	#25
Spec TeamsST	#3	#41
TalentTal	#8	#5
Blue ChipsBC%	#16	#6

Michigan Notes(12/10) Sherrone Moore fired for cause. Messy situation
(11/18) RB Justice Haynes out regular season (foot inj)
(11/16) Keep eking by B1G bottom feeders. Overrated
(10/18) Dominated UW up front both sides, Def was great
(10/12) Off is terrible, will not score vs Def w/ a pulse
(9/21) Skill positions on outside both Off & Def are bad
(9/20) Huge win at Neb, Run Off great, Run Def better
(9/14) Underwood unleashed, Run Off awful so far
(9/8) Biff Poggi will be acting HC vs CMU/Neb
(9/8) HC Moore a minus for lack of aggressiveness
(9/7) OL is not as good as thought. WR are awful
(8/24) QB1 Fr. Bryce Underwood is starting QB
Michigan Injury Report

Texas Notes(12/18) DC Pete Kwiatkowski fired, Will Muschamp hired
(11/2) Manning getting hot, Run Off awful. Big W vs Vandy
(10/31) QB1 Manning will start vs Vandy, was ?
(10/25) Ryan Niblett best PR in CFB, saving Horns season
(10/18) Off only 179 yds in UK win, OG'd by 200+, lucky W
(10/14) RB2 Jerrick Gibson no longer w/ program
(10/9) RB1 CJ Baxter doubtful for OU game
(10/5) The Run Off is horrific & Arch looks lost. Bad vibes
(9/13) Arch awful vs UTEP. Very concerning now
(8/30) Fr CB Graceson Littleton the real deal
(8/30) Arch bad vs OSU, inconsistent. OL dominated
(6/14) Only P4 w/ same HC, OC, DC, S&C for 5+ year
Texas Injury Report

Michigan on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat	MICH Off	TEX Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#47	#25
SuccessSuc	#102	#22
ExplosiveExp	#133	#1
PPAPPA	#113	#3
PowerPwr	#52	#14
SP+SP+	#48	#18
Pts POPPO	#45	#3
HavocHav	#58	#4

Michigan Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat	MICH Off	TEX Def
Run GameRun	#16	#22
Run SuccessRSuc	#101	#61
Run ExplRExp	#91	#3
PPAExp	#86	#3
Run BlockR Blk	#29	-
OL YdsOLY	#80	#33
Stuff RateStuff	#27	#31
TackleTak	-	#16

Michigan Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat	MICH Off	TEX Def
Pass GamePass	#92	#34
Pass SuccessPSuc	#92	#7
Pass ExplPExl	#131	#14
PPAExp	#119	#3
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#74	#18
F7 HavocF7	#73	#8
DB HavocDB	#51	#17

Texas on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	TEX Off	MICH Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#25	#31
SuccessSuc	#27	#28
ExplosiveExp	#47	#73
PPAPPA	#39	#40
PowerPwr	#31	#13
SP+SP+	#30	#15
Pts POPPO	#54	#36
HavocHav	#77	#23

Texas Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	TEX Off	MICH Def
Run GameRun	#55	#19
Run SuccessRSuc	#16	#18
Run ExplRExp	#96	#11
PPAExp	#69	#24
Run BlockR Blk	#27	-
OL YdsOLY	#84	#24
Stuff RateStuff	#101	#61
TackleTak	-	#32

Texas Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	TEX Off	MICH Def
Pass GamePass	#15	#66
Pass SuccessPSuc	#43	#42
Pass ExplPExl	#28	#71
PPAExp	#34	#56
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#45	#30
F7 HavocF7	#97	#50
DB HavocDB	#41	#10

Program Comparison
TEX 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Remains CFP Hopefuls

MICH 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Camping World Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Texas -7.0 (50.0)
Texas won vs Michigan this year (41-27)

Previous Matchups
Texas beat Michigan last year (41-27)
Texas beat Michigan in 2024 (31-12)

MICH's OC Chip Lindsey (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Bryce Underwood	202	335	60%	2428	11	9	7.2
Jadyn Davis	0	2	0%	0	0	1	0.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Marshall	150	932	10	6.2	65
Justice Haynes (Tr)	121	857	10	7.1	75
Bryce Underwood	88	392	6	4.5	37
Bryson Kuzdzal	76	326	4	4.3	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Andrew Marsh	45	651	4	14.5	69
Donaven McCulley (Tr)	39	588	3	15.1	44
Marlin Klein	24	248	1	10.3	27
Semaj Morgan	20	223	1	11.2	32

View Michigan's Full Roster

MICH's DC Don Martindale (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jimmy Rolder	73	7	2	2	1
Ernest Hausmann	68	6	1	4	1
TJ Metcalf (Tr)	58	3	0	0	4
Brandyn Hillman	49	3	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Derrick Moore	29	10	10	3	3
Jaishawn Barham	32	10	4	5	4
Jimmy Rolder	73	7	2	2	1
Cole Sullivan	44	5	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Zeke Berry	33	0	0	10
Jyaire Hill	36	3	1	5
TJ Metcalf (Tr)	58	3	0	4

TEX's OC Kyle Flood (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Arch Manning	248	404	61%	3163	26	7	7.8
Matthew Caldwell (Tr)	8	11	73%	85	1	0	7.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tre Wisner	131	597	3	4.6	48
Arch Manning	92	399	10	4.3	60
Christian Clark	55	236	2	4.3	22
CJ Baxter Jr.	54	196	0	3.6	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ryan Wingo	54	834	7	15.4	75
DeAndre Moore Jr.	38	532	4	14.0	46
Parker Livingstone	29	516	6	17.8	83
Emmett Mosley V (Tr)	28	408	3	14.6	40

View Texas's Full Roster

TEX's DC Pete Kwiatkowski (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jelani McDonald	80	4	0	1	3
Michael Taaffe	70	1	1	0	1
Anthony Hill Jr.	70	7	4	5	1
Liona Lefau	68	2	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Colin Simmons	43	16	12	15	2
Anthony Hill Jr.	70	7	4	5	1
Brad Spence (Tr)	21	6	3	2	0
Ethan Burke	40	7	3	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kade Phillips	22	2	0	0	6
Graceson Littleton	46	3	0	0	6
Malik Muhammad	30	3	1	1	4