Michigan at Texas - 2025 Matchup Preview
Michigan logo (#19)Michigan Wolverines vs Texas Longhorns(#13)Texas logo
Wednesday, December 31st 2025 (3:00 PM EST)
Texas -7.0 (50.0) (-210)  Open: -5.5 | 46.0
Texas 41 - Michigan: 27  (Cheez-It Citrus Bowl)

 
Wolverines (9 - 4) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Biff Pogi (Int) ( - )
Avg Score : 28 - 20 (26 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 3.5 (#25)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 5)
Losses: (Elite: 3) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Texas -0  (SP+ TEX -1)

Projected Score: MICH: 27 - TEX: 27 (53)
TEX Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
MICH Travel: 1134 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Longhorns (10 - 3) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Steve Sarkisian (36 - 16)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (39 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 3.5 (#25)
Wins: (Elite: 3) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Michigan's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Michigan vs New Mexico-36.552.5W 34 - 17UN
Sat 9/6 Michigan at Oklahoma+3.047.5L 13 - 24UN
Sat 9/13 Michigan vs Central Michigan-27.542.5W 63 - 3OY
Sat 9/20 Michigan at Nebraska-1.547.5W 30 - 27OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Michigan vs Wisconsin-17.542.5W 24 - 10UN
Sat 10/11 Michigan at USC+3.058.5L 13 - 31UN
Sat 10/18 Michigan vs Washington-4.550.5W 24 - 7UY
Sat 10/25 Michigan at Michigan State-13.547.5W 31 - 20ON
Sat 11/1 Michigan vs Purdue-21.048.5W 21 - 16UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Michigan vs Northwestern-10.041.5W 24 - 22ON
Sat 11/22 Michigan at Maryland-14.046.5W 45 - 20OY
Sat 11/29 Michigan vs Ohio State+9.543.5L 9 - 27UN
Wed 12/31 Michigan vs Texas+7.050.0L 27 - 41ON

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 4, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 3, Bad: 3, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 3, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Michigan's Schedule
Texas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Texas at Ohio State+1.546.5L 7 - 14UN
Sat 9/6 Texas vs San José State-37.052.5W 38 - 7UN
Sat 9/13 Texas vs UTEP-39.552.5W 27 - 10UN
Sat 9/20 Texas vs Sam Houston-39.551.5W 55 - 0OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Texas at Florida-4.542.5L 21 - 29ON
Sat 10/11 Texas vs Oklahoma-2.544.5W 23 - 6UY
Sat 10/18 Texas at Kentucky-12.545.5W 16 - 13UN
Sat 10/25 Texas at Mississippi State-8.548.5W 45 - 38ON
Sat 11/1 Texas vs Vanderbilt-3.548.5W 34 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Texas at Georgia+3.550.5L 10 - 35UN
Sat 11/22 Texas vs Arkansas-10.557.5W 52 - 37OY
Fri 11/28 Texas vs Texas A&M+2.554.5W 27 - 17UY
Wed 12/31 Texas vs Michigan-7.050.0W 41 - 27OY

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 5, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 3, Good: 0, Avg: 3, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MICH#45 (.2)45% (36)27.548% (17)3.25 (20)19843% (59)1713.67 (75)#39 (.1)42% (70)20.441% (51)44% (102)3.67 (69)31.81.11.3
TEX#77 (.16)40% (102)30.542% (90)2.83 (87)12039% (102)2343.4 (97)#44 (.11)40% (47)20.338% (25)41% (63)3.82 (85)61.80.61.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MICH#113 (.1)40% (102)41% (101)3 (80)14940% (92)1234.18 (45)#40 (.13)38% (28)38% (18)39% (42)3.48 (36)36.81.51.2
TEX#39 (.24)46% (27)49% (16)2.95 (84)15244% (43)2414.03 (54)#3 (-.01)38% (22)42% (61)34% (7)2.57 (3)44.31.41.8



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MICH Offense1327.526.445.3%3.671.1193691981715.655%43%48%43%12%.2
TEX Defense1320.31739.8%3.821.5 - - - - - 44%55%38%41%18%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MICH Defense1320.424.441.9%3.671.3 - - - - - 46%53%41%44%17%.1
TEX Offense1330.538.839.9%3.40.617354120234447%51%42%39%16%.16

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Michigan1327:1418.746%17%3.731.81.11.35.52.2030.7
Texas1326:2517.240%47%7.461.80.61.55.72.8231.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MICH Offense1355% (31)48% (17)35.3197.85.632 (23).22 (20)3.25 (20)75% (49)7% (23)0.98 (63)
TEX Defense1344% (11)38% (25) - - - - -.02 (11)2.59 (15)50% (2)11% (20)0.82 (9)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MICH Defense1346% (20)41% (51) - - - - .04 (30)2.67 (24)61% (10)10% (53)0.81 (7)
TEX Offense1347% (92)42% (90)30119.9414 (88).06 (97)2.83 (87)67% (102)10% (94)0.88 (106)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MICH Offense1343% (107)43% (59)13.822.8171.57.512.59 (106)7 (20).25 (68)1.5 (107)30% (39)32% (44).31 (67)4% (16)1.7 (132)
TEX Defense1355% (127)41% (63) - - - - - - 13 (12).24 (66)1.5 (37)32% (57)29% (70).27 (64)7% (41)1.8 (21)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MICH Defense1353% (117)44% (102) - - - - - - 13 (4).2 (52)1.3 (3)30% (103)32% (96).37 (107)7% (34)2 (64)
TEX Offense1351% (45)39% (102)18.229.7233.77.912.826 (50)7 (60).28 (56)1.8 (10)33% (93)32% (53).4 (32)6% (59)2.2 (19)

Michigan's Power Ratings
Michigan's Power Rating: 19.88  #17
Michigan's Offense Rating: 15.47  #39
Michigan's Defense Rating: -4.41  #18
2025 Talent Rating: 1042.00  #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 50%  #16
Michigan's 2025 Expected Record: 9.5 - 3.5
Michigan's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.6  #26
Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.8  #50
Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.5  #12

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan: 19.88   Texas: 16.945

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan: 13.6   Texas: 14.8




Texas's Power Ratings
Texas's Power Rating: 16.945  #19
Texas's Offense Rating: 16.15  #33
Texas's Defense Rating: -2.94  #22
2025 Talent Rating: 1074.00  #5
Blue Chip Ratio: 65  #6
Texas's 2025 Expected Record: 9.5 - 3.5
Texas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.8  #22
Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.3  #38
Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.9  #17

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Michigan Scoring
Offense: 27.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.4
Defense: 20.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.4

Michigan's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Michigan 27
Texas 27


Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
Michigan 32
Texas 27

Total Points: 59

Based on Entire Season
Texas 29
Michigan 23

Total Points: 52
Texas Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.8
Defense: 20.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

Texas's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202512/31Texas41Michigan27Texas -7.0Texas50.0Over
202409/07Michigan12Texas31Texas -7Texas42.0Over
200401/01Texas38Michigan37
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas322 Overs
Michigan000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 11 - 11 - 00 - 1
Road Teams1 - 21 - 11 - 00 - 1

Michigan Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025Citrus Bowl Michigan vs Texas+7.050.0L 27 - 41
2024Reliaquest Bowl Michigan vs Alabama+16.545.5W 19 - 13
2023CFP Nat'l Title Michigan vs Washington-5.555.5W 34 - 13
2023CFP Semifinal Michigan vs Alabama-2.046.0W 27 - 20
2022CFP Semifinal Michigan vs TCU-8.056.0L 45 - 51
2021CFP Semifinal Michigan vs Georgia+7.547.0L 11 - 34
2019Citrus Bowl Michigan vs Alabama+8.562.0L 16 - 35
Texas Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025Citrus Bowl Texas vs Michigan-7.050.0W 41 - 27
2024CFP Semifinal Texas vs Ohio State+6.551.5L 14 - 28
2024CFP Quarterfinal Texas vs Arizona State-13.552.5W 39 - 31
2024CFP 1st Round Texas vs Clemson-13.549.5W 38 - 24
2023CFP Semifinal Texas vs Washington-3.061.5L 31 - 37
2022Alamo Bowl Texas vs Washington-3.067.0L 20 - 27
2020Alamo Bowl Texas vs Colorado-9.563.5W 55 - 23
2019N/A Texas vs Utah+7.557.0W 38 - 10
  
(#17) MICH at (#19) TEX
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMICHTEX
Power RatePwr #17 #19
SP+SP+ #26 #22
Perf GradeGrade #21 #14
OffenseOff #47 #30
DefenseDef #17 #22
Spec TeamsST #7 #42
TalentTal #8 #5
Blue ChipsBC% #16 #6
Michigan Notes
(12/10) Sherrone Moore fired for cause. Messy situation
(11/18) RB Justice Haynes out regular season (foot inj)
(11/16) Keep eking by B1G bottom feeders. Overrated
(10/18) Dominated UW up front both sides, Def was great
(10/12) Off is terrible, will not score vs Def w/ a pulse
(9/21) Skill positions on outside both Off & Def are bad
(9/20) Huge win at Neb, Run Off great, Run Def better
(9/14) Underwood unleashed, Run Off awful so far
(9/8) Biff Poggi will be acting HC vs CMU/Neb
(9/8) HC Moore a minus for lack of aggressiveness
(9/7) OL is not as good as thought. WR are awful
(8/24) QB1 Fr. Bryce Underwood is starting QB
Michigan Injury Report
Texas Notes
(12/18) DC Pete Kwiatkowski fired, Will Muschamp hired
(11/2) Manning getting hot, Run Off awful. Big W vs Vandy
(10/31) QB1 Manning will start vs Vandy, was ?
(10/25) Ryan Niblett best PR in CFB, saving Horns season
(10/18) Off only 179 yds in UK win, OG'd by 200+, lucky W
(10/14) RB2 Jerrick Gibson no longer w/ program
(10/9) RB1 CJ Baxter doubtful for OU game
(10/5) The Run Off is horrific & Arch looks lost. Bad vibes
(9/13) Arch awful vs UTEP. Very concerning now
(8/30) Fr CB Graceson Littleton the real deal
(8/30) Arch bad vs OSU, inconsistent. OL dominated
(6/14) Only P4 w/ same HC, OC, DC, S&C for 5+ year
Texas Injury Report
Michigan on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
MICH OffTEX Def
Perf GradePerf #47 #22
SuccessSuc #36 #47
ExplosiveExp #116 #27
PPAPPA #45 #44
PowerPwr #39 #22
SP+SP+ #50 #17
Pts POPPO #75 #85
HavocHav #9 #25
Michigan Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
MICH OffTEX Def
Run GameRun #24 #13
Run SuccessRSuc #17 #25
Run ExplRExp #63 #9
PPAExp #20 #11
Run BlockR Blk #38 -
OL YdsOLY #20 #15
Stuff RateStuff #8 #30
TackleTak -  #18
Michigan Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
MICH OffTEX Def
Pass GamePass #80 #50
Pass SuccessPSuc #59 #63
Pass ExplPExl #107 #37
PPAExp #68 #66
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #49 #8
F7 HavocF7 #23 #20
DB HavocDB #16 #41
Texas on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatTEX OffMICH Def
Perf GradePerf #30 #17
SuccessSuc #102 #70
ExplosiveExp #16 #7
PPAPPA #77 #39
PowerPwr #33 #18
SP+SP+ #38 #12
Pts POPPO #97 #69
HavocHav #73 #45
Texas Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TEX OffMICH Def
Run GameRun #78 #5
Run SuccessRSuc #90 #51
Run ExplRExp #106 #7
PPAExp #97 #30
Run BlockR Blk #27 -
OL YdsOLY #87 #24
Stuff RateStuff #119 #94
TackleTak -  #13
Texas Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatTEX OffMICH Def
Pass GamePass #20 #52
Pass SuccessPSuc #102 #102
Pass ExplPExl #10 #3
PPAExp #56 #52
Pass Block/RushP Blk #70 #30
F7 HavocF7 #94 #53
DB HavocDB #59 #34
Program Comparison
TEX 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

MICH 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Down to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Camping World Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 55° - Wind: 11 mph
Rematch from Week 1
Texas -7.0 (50.0)
Texas won vs Michigan this year (41-27)

Previous Matchups
Texas beat Michigan last year (31-12)

  
MICH's OC Chip Lindsey (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bryce Underwood17929361%2229967.6
Jadyn Davis020%0010.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Marshall150932106.265
Justice Haynes (Tr)121857107.175
Bryce Underwood7432354.437
Bryson Kuzdzal5624444.422
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Andrew Marsh42641315.369
Donaven McCulley (Tr)35534315.344
Semaj Morgan19214111.332
Marlin Klein20209110.527

View Michigan's Full Roster

MICH's DC Don Martindale (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jimmy Rolder697221
Ernest Hausmann686141
TJ Metcalf (Tr)513003
Brandyn Hillman483003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Derrick Moore29101033
Jaishawn Barham3210454
Jimmy Rolder697221
TJ Guy173220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zeke Berry2800010
Jyaire Hill332105
Jaishawn Barham3210454

TEX's OC Kyle Flood (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Arch Manning22737061%29422478.0
Matthew Caldwell (Tr)81173%85107.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Wisner13159734.648
Arch Manning8324482.936
CJ Baxter Jr.5419603.618
Jerrick Gibson3715214.114
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ryan Wingo50770715.475
DeAndre Moore Jr.38532414.046
Parker Livingstone26491618.983
Emmett Mosley V (Tr)23357315.540

View Texas's Full Roster

TEX's DC Pete Kwiatkowski (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jelani McDonald734013
Michael Taaffe701101
Anthony Hill Jr.707451
Liona Lefau682003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Colin Simmons411411152
Anthony Hill Jr.707451
Brad Spence (Tr)185320
Trey Moore345363
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kade Phillips140005
Graceson Littleton403005
Malik Muhammad303114