Michigan at Michigan State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Michigan logo (#25)Michigan Wolverines at Michigan State SpartansMichigan State logo
Saturday, October 25th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Michigan -13.5 (47.5) (-520)  Open: -8.5
Michigan 31 - Michigan State: 20  (Big Ten)

 
Wolverines (9 - 4) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Biff Pogi (Int) ( - )
Avg Score : 28 - 20 (26 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 3.5 (#25)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
MSU is playing their 4th straight game
MICH is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Michigan -11.5  (SP+ MICH -17)

Projected Score: MICH: 30 - MSU: 19 (49)
MICH Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
MICH Travel: 49 miles
Spartans (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 25 - 30 (25 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
 
Michigan's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Michigan vs New Mexico-36.552.5W 34 - 17UN
Sat 9/6 Michigan at Oklahoma+3.047.5L 13 - 24UN
Sat 9/13 Michigan vs Central Michigan-27.542.5W 63 - 3OY
Sat 9/20 Michigan at Nebraska-1.547.5W 30 - 27OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Michigan vs Wisconsin-17.542.5W 24 - 10UN
Sat 10/11 Michigan at USC+3.058.5L 13 - 31UN
Sat 10/18 Michigan vs Washington-4.550.5W 24 - 7UY
Sat 10/25 Michigan at Michigan State-13.547.5W 31 - 20ON
Sat 11/1 Michigan vs Purdue-21.048.5W 21 - 16UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Michigan vs Northwestern-10.041.5W 24 - 22ON
Sat 11/22 Michigan at Maryland-14.046.5W 45 - 20OY
Sat 11/29 Michigan vs Ohio State+9.543.5L 9 - 27UN
Wed 12/31 Michigan vs Texas+7.050.0L 27 - 41ON

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Michigan's Schedule
Michigan State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Michigan State vs Western Michigan-18.549.5W 23 - 6UN
Sat 9/6 Michigan State vs Boston College-3.545.5W 42 - 40ON
Sat 9/13 Michigan State vs Youngstown State-23.555.5W 41 - 24ON
Sat 9/20 Michigan State at USC+18.555.5L 31 - 45OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Michigan State at Nebraska+12.548.5L 27 - 38OY
Sat 10/11 Michigan State vs UCLA-7.051.5L 13 - 38UN
Sat 10/18 Michigan State at Indiana+26.549.5L 13 - 38OY
Sat 10/25 Michigan State vs Michigan+13.547.5L 20 - 31OY
Sat 11/1 Michigan State at Minnesota+4.544.5L 20 - 23UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Michigan State vs Penn State+7.048.5L 10 - 28UN
Sat 11/22 Michigan State at Iowa+17.543.0L 17 - 20UY
Sat 11/29 Michigan State vs Maryland-4.049.5W 38 - 28OY

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MICH#45 (.2)45% (36)27.548% (17)3.25 (20)19843% (59)1713.67 (75)#39 (.1)42% (70)20.441% (51)44% (102)3.67 (69)31.81.11.3
MSU#98 (.12)42% (77)24.642% (83)2.56 (128)12342% (67)2233.75 (64)#103 (.21)45% (116)29.947% (123)44% (101)3.91 (95)44.910.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MICH#113 (.1)40% (102)41% (101)3 (80)14940% (92)1234.18 (45)#40 (.13)38% (28)38% (18)39% (42)3.48 (36)36.81.51.2
MSU#105 (.13)42% (86)45% (50)2.76 (109)11838% (107)2183.34 (116)#85 (.19)42% (69)39% (25)45% (111)4.06 (98)63.31.60.9



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MICH Offense1327.526.445.3%3.671.1193691981715.655%43%48%43%12%.2
MSU Defense1229.927.845.2%3.910.8 - - - - - 49%49%47%44%14%.21
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MICH Defense1320.424.441.9%3.671.3 - - - - - 46%53%41%44%17%.1
MSU Offense1224.624.841.7%3.751193451232233.847%51%42%42%18%.12

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Michigan1327:1418.746%17%3.731.81.11.35.52.2030.7
Michigan State1230:1118.835%44%5.344.910.84.71.8127.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MICH Offense1355% (31)48% (17)35.3197.85.632 (23).22 (20)3.25 (20)75% (49)7% (23)0.98 (63)
MSU Defense1249% (52)47% (123) - - - - .16 (101)2.87 (65)81% (126)9% (97)0.91 (44)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MICH Defense1346% (20)41% (51) - - - - .04 (30)2.67 (24)61% (10)10% (53)0.81 (7)
MSU Offense1247% (91)42% (83)32.3122.73.816 (60).06 (95)2.56 (128)65% (112)13% (132)0.95 (72)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MICH Offense1343% (107)43% (59)13.822.8171.57.512.59 (106)7 (20).25 (68)1.5 (107)30% (39)32% (44).31 (67)4% (16)1.7 (132)
MSU Defense1249% (84)44% (101) - - - - - - 5 (100).32 (102)1.5 (33)29% (110)30% (76).33 (86)5% (115)2.1 (88)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MICH Defense1353% (117)44% (102) - - - - - - 13 (4).2 (52)1.3 (3)30% (103)32% (96).37 (107)7% (34)2 (64)
MSU Offense1251% (51)42% (67)2031.5222.77.111.120 (50)6 (34).24 (73)1.4 (112)30% (55)30% (78).37 (43)5% (24)2.1 (49)

Michigan's Power Ratings
Michigan's Power Rating: 19.88  #17
Michigan's Offense Rating: 15.47  #39
Michigan's Defense Rating: -4.41  #18
2025 Talent Rating: 1042.00  #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 50%  #16
Michigan's 2025 Expected Record: 9.5 - 3.5
Michigan's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.6  #26
Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.8  #50
Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.5  #12

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan: 19.88   Michigan State: 5.155

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan: 13.6   Michigan State: -3.3




Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: 5.155  #46
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 14.17  #45
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 5.56  #50
2025 Talent Rating: 876.00  #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 14  #33
Michigan State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Michigan State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.3  #84
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.8  #74
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.6  #85

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Michigan Scoring
Offense: 27.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.4
Defense: 20.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.4

Michigan's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Michigan 30
Michigan State 19


Total Points: 49

Based on Last 4 Games
Michigan 31
Michigan State 20

Total Points: 51

Based on Entire Season
Michigan 28
Michigan State 24

Total Points: 52
Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 24.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.8
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.8

Michigan State's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/25Michigan State20Michigan31Michigan -13.5Michigan State47.5Over
202410/26Michigan24Michigan State17Michigan -3.5Michigan39.0Over
202310/21Michigan State0Michigan49Michigan -25.5Michigan47.0Over
202210/29Michigan29Michigan State7Michigan -22Push55.0Under
202110/30Michigan State37Michigan33Michigan -4Michigan State50.5Over
202010/31Michigan24Michigan State27Michigan -25.0Michigan State0
201911/16Michigan44Michigan State10Michigan -13.5Michigan43.5Over
201810/20Michigan State7Michigan21Michigan -7.5Michigan38.5Under
201710/07Michigan10Michigan State14Michigan -12.5Michigan State40.0Under
201610/29Michigan State23Michigan32Michigan -21Michigan State49.5Over
201510/17Michigan23Michigan State27Michigan -7Michigan State42.5Over
201410/25Michigan State35Michigan11Michigan State -15.5Michigan State0
201311/02Michigan State29Michigan6Michigan State -3.5Michigan State0
201210/20Michigan12Michigan State10
201110/15Michigan State28Michigan14
201010/09Michigan17Michigan State34
200910/03Michigan State26Michigan20
200810/25Michigan21Michigan State35
200711/03Michigan State24Michigan28
200610/07Michigan31Michigan State13
200510/01Michigan State31Michigan34
200410/30Michigan45Michigan State37
200311/01Michigan State20Michigan27
200211/02Michigan49Michigan State3
200111/03Michigan State26Michigan24
200010/20Michigan14Michigan State0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Michigan State1187 Overs
Michigan1543 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams14 - 127 - 54 - 33 - 2
Road Teams12 - 145 - 72 - 33 - 4

(#17) MICH at (#46) MSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMICHMSU
Power RatePwr #17 #46
SP+SP+ #26 #84
Perf GradeGrade #21 #94
OffenseOff #47 #65
DefenseDef #17 #107
Spec TeamsST #7 #134
TalentTal #8 #30
Blue ChipsBC% #16 #33
Michigan Notes
(12/10) Sherrone Moore fired for cause. Messy situation
(11/18) RB Justice Haynes out regular season (foot inj)
(11/16) Keep eking by B1G bottom feeders. Overrated
(10/18) Dominated UW up front both sides, Def was great
(10/12) Off is terrible, will not score vs Def w/ a pulse
(9/21) Skill positions on outside both Off & Def are bad
(9/20) Huge win at Neb, Run Off great, Run Def better
(9/14) Underwood unleashed, Run Off awful so far
(9/8) Biff Poggi will be acting HC vs CMU/Neb
(9/8) HC Moore a minus for lack of aggressiveness
(9/7) OL is not as good as thought. WR are awful
(8/24) QB1 Fr. Bryce Underwood is starting QB
Michigan Injury Report
Michigan State Notes
(12/6) Hired Pat Fitzgerald? Sparty gonna regret this one.
(12/6) DC Joe Rossi will remain under HC Fitzgerald
(11/30) HC Smith has been fired after 2 years, 9-15
(11/22) Blew 17-7 lead vs Iowa. 4 str 3 & outs to lose
(11/2) Outplayed Minn, penalties costly, tough loss
(10/27) 3 backdoor covers, otherwise awful team
(10/12) Doesn't feel like HC Smith is working out for Sparty
(10/11) Def may be worst in B1G, dump trucked in conf play
(9/21) Injuries piling up at LB, thin situation
(9/14) Success #'s bad on both sides vs meh so far
(8/30) QB Chiles meh, Run Def great vs WMU
(8/29) RB Makhi Frazier really good, complete back
Michigan State Injury Report
Michigan on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
MICH OffMSU Def
Perf GradePerf #47 #107
SuccessSuc #36 #116
ExplosiveExp #116 #26
PPAPPA #45 #103
PowerPwr #39 #50
SP+SP+ #50 #85
Pts POPPO #75 #95
HavocHav #9 #111
Michigan Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
MICH OffMSU Def
Run GameRun #24 #100
Run SuccessRSuc #17 #123
Run ExplRExp #63 #44
PPAExp #20 #101
Run BlockR Blk #38 -
OL YdsOLY #20 #65
Stuff RateStuff #8 #104
TackleTak -  #51
Michigan Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
MICH OffMSU Def
Pass GamePass #80 #85
Pass SuccessPSuc #59 #101
Pass ExplPExl #107 #33
PPAExp #68 #102
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #49 #104
F7 HavocF7 #23 #97
DB HavocDB #16 #115
Michigan State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatMSU OffMICH Def
Perf GradePerf #65 #17
SuccessSuc #77 #70
ExplosiveExp #96 #7
PPAPPA #98 #39
PowerPwr #45 #18
SP+SP+ #74 #12
Pts POPPO #64 #69
HavocHav #115 #45
Michigan State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
MSU OffMICH Def
Run GameRun #62 #5
Run SuccessRSuc #83 #51
Run ExplRExp #72 #7
PPAExp #95 #30
Run BlockR Blk #33 -
OL YdsOLY #128 #24
Stuff RateStuff #133 #94
TackleTak -  #13
Michigan State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatMSU OffMICH Def
Pass GamePass #91 #52
Pass SuccessPSuc #67 #102
Pass ExplPExl #112 #3
PPAExp #73 #52
Pass Block/RushP Blk #121 #30
F7 HavocF7 #132 #53
DB HavocDB #24 #34
Program Comparison
MSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

MICH 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Down to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 44°
Rematch from Week 9
Michigan 13.5 (47.5)
Michigan won at Michigan State this year (31-20)

Previous Matchups
Michigan beat Michigan State last year (24-17)
Michigan beat Michigan State in 2023 (49-0)
Michigan beat Michigan State in 2022 (29-7)

  
MICH's OC Chip Lindsey (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bryce Underwood17929361%2229967.6
Jadyn Davis020%0010.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Marshall150932106.265
Justice Haynes (Tr)121857107.175
Bryce Underwood7432354.437
Bryson Kuzdzal5624444.422
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Andrew Marsh42641315.369
Donaven McCulley (Tr)35534315.344
Semaj Morgan19214111.332
Marlin Klein20209110.527

View Michigan's Full Roster

MICH's DC Don Martindale (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jimmy Rolder697221
Ernest Hausmann686141
TJ Metcalf (Tr)513003
Brandyn Hillman483003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Derrick Moore29101033
Jaishawn Barham3210454
Jimmy Rolder697221
TJ Guy173220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zeke Berry2800010
Jyaire Hill332105
Jaishawn Barham3210454

MSU's OC Brian Lindgren (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Aidan Chiles12820363%13921036.9
Alessio Milivojevic11117364%12671037.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Makhi Frazier11652024.549
Elijah Tau-Tolliver (Tr)7242825.985
Brandon Tullis6829744.435
Aidan Chiles8122762.864
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Nick Marsh59662611.248
Omari Kelly (Tr)47626213.375
Jack Velling36359310.028
Chrishon Mccray (Tr)24330313.845

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Joe Rossi (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Hall885321
Wayne Matthews III735001
Malik Spencer523215
Alex VanSumeren502221
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Hall885321
Jalen Thompson296381
Quindarius Dunnigan255390
Ru'Quan Buckley132210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Malcolm Bell (Tr)495106
Malik Spencer523215
Chance Rucker70012