Michigan at Michigan State Game Matchup
Michigan logo Michigan Wolverines at Michigan State SpartansMichigan State logo
Saturday, October 25th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Spartan Stadium - East Lansing, MI  (Big Ten)

 
Wolverines (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Sherrone Moore (8 - 5)
Avg Score : 22 - 20 (13 - 20 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.9 - 2.1 (#9)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 3) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 5)
MSU is playing their 4th straight game
MICH is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Michigan -15.5   (SP+ MICH -21.5)
Projected Score: MICH: 28 - MSU: 13 (44)
MICH Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
MICH Travel: 49 miles
Spartans (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 19 - 26 (20 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.1 - 6.9 (#91)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 5) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
 
Michigan's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Michigan vs New Mexico-34.50.0
Sat 9/6 Michigan at Oklahoma+0
Sat 9/13 Michigan vs Central Michigan-37.5
Sat 9/20 Michigan at Nebraska-7
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Michigan vs Wisconsin-16
Sat 10/11 Michigan at USC-8
Sat 10/18 Michigan vs Washington-15.5
Sat 10/25 Michigan at Michigan State-15.5
Sat 11/1 Michigan vs Purdue-36.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Michigan vs Northwestern-21
Sat 11/22 Michigan at Maryland-22
Sat 11/29 Michigan vs Ohio State+7.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Michigan's Schedule
Michigan State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Michigan State vs Western Michigan-17.50.0
Sat 9/6 Michigan State vs Boston College-3
Sat 9/13 Michigan State vs Youngstown State-26.5
Sat 9/20 Michigan State at USC+10.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Michigan State at Nebraska+11
Sat 10/11 Michigan State vs UCLA-3
Sat 10/18 Michigan State at Indiana+12
Sat 10/25 Michigan State vs Michigan+15.5
Sat 11/1 Michigan State at Minnesota+9
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Michigan State vs Penn State+23.5
Sat 11/22 Michigan State at Iowa+11
Sat 11/29 Michigan State vs Maryland-8.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MICH#113 (.1)40% (102)2241% (101)3 (80)14940% (92)1234.18 (45)#40 (.13)38% (28)19.938% (18)39% (42)3.48 (36)36.81.51.2
MSU#105 (.13)42% (86)19.345% (50)2.76 (109)11838% (107)2183.34 (116)#85 (.19)42% (69)26.139% (25)45% (111)4.06 (98)63.31.60.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MICH0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MICH Offense13221340.1%4.181.5152721491234.560%39%41%40%15%.1
MSU Defense1226.124.741.7%4.060.9 - - - - - 50%50%39%45%14%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MICH Defense1319.919.538.3%3.481.2 - - - - - 42%57%38%39%19%.13
MSU Offense1219.320.441.6%3.341.6193371182183.750%50%45%38%18%.13

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Michigan1328:5715.243%71%3.736.81.51.25.62.4230
Michigan State1230:5418.838%52%6.763.31.60.95.51.6126.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MICH Offense1360% (9)41% (101)33.3148.54.518 (78).1 (86)3 (80)84% (7)10% (73)0.91 (91)
MSU Defense1250% (56)39% (25) - - - - .06 (36)2.8 (37)67% (29)10% (64)1.01 (80)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MICH Defense1342% (1)38% (18) - - - - .04 (24)2.72 (24)82% (120)11% (50)0.85 (11)
MSU Offense1250% (74)45% (50)32.4118.43.711 (116).02 (116)2.76 (109)74% (66)12% (112)0.82 (126)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MICH Offense1339% (126)40% (92)13.822.5123.35.5911 (122)12 (85).12 (119)1.4 (131)33% (90)30% (92).26 (96)5% (51)1.7 (133)
MSU Defense1250% (79)45% (111) - - - - - - 9 (76).34 (111)1.7 (101)32% (70)35% (118).43 (111)4% (121)2.1 (74)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MICH Defense1357% (134)39% (42) - - - - - - 11 (52).21 (56)1.6 (71)36% (12)28% (28).27 (54)8% (10)2.2 (109)
MSU Offense1250% (61)38% (107)17.729.5218.17.412.313 (116)13 (103).24 (79)1.6 (57)33% (106)25% (122).18 (113)6% (63)2 (80)

Michigan's Power Ratings
Michigan's Power Rating: 21.11 #14
Michigan's Offense Rating: 20.48 #35
Michigan's Defense Rating: -0.63 #5
2025 Talent Rating: 1024.00 #9
Blue Chip Ratio: 48% #11
Michigan's 2025 Expected Record: 9.9 - 2.1
Michigan's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 21.5 #10
Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.8 #32
Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 10.3 #3

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 896.44
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.24

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan: 21.11   Michigan State: 5.575

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan: 21.5   Michigan State: -0.2




Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: 5.575 #49
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 16.21 #53
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 9.86 #36
2025 Talent Rating: 828.00 #37
Blue Chip Ratio: 12 #34
Michigan State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.1 - 6.9
Michigan State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.2 #64
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.6 #107
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.9 #32

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 896.44
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.24


Michigan Scoring
Offense: 22 PPG
Offense on Road: 13
Defense: 19.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 19.5

Michigan's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Michigan 28
Michigan State 13

Projected Total Points: 44
Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 20.4
Defense: 26.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.7

Michigan State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/26Michigan24Michigan State17MichiganMichigan -3.5Michigan39.0Over
202310/21Michigan State0Michigan49MichiganMichigan -25.5Michigan47.0Over
202210/29Michigan29Michigan State7MichiganMichigan -22Push55.0Under
202110/30Michigan State37Michigan33Michigan StateMichigan -4Michigan State50.5Over
202010/31Michigan24Michigan State27Michigan StateMichigan -25.0Michigan State0
201911/16Michigan44Michigan State10MichiganMichigan -13.5Michigan43.5Over
201810/20Michigan State7Michigan21MichiganMichigan -7.5Michigan38.5Under
201710/07Michigan10Michigan State14Michigan StateMichigan -12.5Michigan State40.0Under
201610/29Michigan State23Michigan32MichiganMichigan -21Michigan State49.5Over
201510/17Michigan23Michigan State27Michigan StateMichigan -7Michigan State42.5Over
201410/25Michigan State35Michigan11Michigan StateMichigan State -15.5Michigan State0
201311/02Michigan State29Michigan6Michigan StateMichigan State -3.5Michigan State0
201210/20Michigan12Michigan State10Michigan
201110/15Michigan State28Michigan14Michigan State
201010/09Michigan17Michigan State34Michigan State
200910/03Michigan State26Michigan20Michigan State
200810/25Michigan21Michigan State35Michigan State
200711/03Michigan State24Michigan28Michigan
200610/07Michigan31Michigan State13Michigan
200510/01Michigan State31Michigan34Michigan
200410/30Michigan45Michigan State37Michigan
200311/01Michigan State20Michigan27Michigan
200211/02Michigan49Michigan State3Michigan
200111/03Michigan State26Michigan24Michigan State
200010/20Michigan14Michigan State0Michigan
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Michigan State1176 Overs
Michigan1443 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams14 - 116 - 54 - 32 - 2
Road Teams11 - 145 - 62 - 23 - 4

(#14) Michigan Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 21.11 #14
Offense Rating: 20.48 #35
Defense Rating: -0.63 #5
Overall SP+ Rating: 21.5 #10
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.8 #32
Defense SP+ Rating: 10.3 #3
Talent Rating: 1024.00 #9
Blue Chip Ratio: 48% #11
Expected Record: 9.9 - 2.1

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 39%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.18 PPO
Poor Run Success 41%
Poor Pass Success 40%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 38%
Good in Scoring Position 3.48 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Good Pass Def Success 39%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Michigan Notes
(5/5) Def F7 still great, but lost top 5 tacklers, leaders
(5/5) HC Moore suspended for CMU/Neb games
(5/2) S Rod Moore a top 10 DB via PFF
(4/27) WRs lacking. Unless Fr are ready, bad unit TY
(4/27) OL 3/5 back. Has talent, overall not sure for '25
(4/4) DE Moore/DT Penny both top 10 PFF, great duo
(3/20) QB1 Keene early, Fr Underwood late?
(3/20) New OC Lindsey not inspiring. We'll see
(3/19) RBs rebuild w/ Haynes (Bama)/Marshall
Michigan     Ratings Matchup     Michigan State
Power #14
#49
Off #35
#53
Def #5
#36
Talent #9
#37
SP+ #10
#64
SP+ Off #32
#107
SP+ Def #3
#32

Previous Matchups
Michigan beat Michigan State last year (24-17)
Michigan beat Michigan State in 2023 (49-0)
Michigan beat Michigan State in 2022 (29-7)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MICH | MSU
Depth Chart: MICH | MSU
Rosters: MICH | MSU
(#49) Michigan State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 5.575 #49
Offense Rating: 16.21 #53
Defense Rating: 9.86 #36
Overall SP+ Rating: -0.2 #64
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.6 #107
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.9 #32
Talent Rating: 828.00 #37
Blue Chip Ratio: 12 #34
Expected Record: 5.1 - 6.9

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.34 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Poor OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.06 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Awful Pass Def Success 45%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Michigan State Notes
(5/21) OL looks pretty bad outside OG Gulbin (Wake)
(5/21) If Chiles improves they have WR/TE weapons
(5/21) Def 14 portal adds, 5 DL & 7 DBs
(5/7) WR Fr Marsh big find LY, sneaky great portal adds
(5/7) OL 2/5 back. Awful LY, 3 portal adds, Moore huge
(5/7) RB - Tullis & Frazier lead, not much exp. 1 portal
(4/4) TE Velling a big target, top 10 TE via PFF
(3/19) Def OK LY, need playmakers/pass rush
(3/19) Year 2 for HC Smith, need to show progress
(3/18) QB Chiles must improve, limit TO's


  
Michigan's OC Chip Lindsey
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Mikey Keene (Tr)27639270%288718117.4
Davis Warren13320764%1198795.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
C.J. Hester (Tr)11952944.424
Justice Haynes (Tr)7944875.785
Jordan Marshall3112003.924
Semaj Morgan63205.313
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Semaj Morgan2713915.131
Fredrick Moore11128111.620
Marlin Klein1310808.333
Peyton O'Leary10102110.222

View Michigan's Full Roster
Michigan's DC Don Martindale
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ernest Hausmann897221
Jaishawn Barham664152
TJ Metcalf (Tr)561007
Zeke Berry373029
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Guy327660
Derrick Moore236442
Cameron Brandt134312
Ernest Hausmann897221
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zeke Berry373029
Jyaire Hill356108
TJ Metcalf (Tr)561007

Michigan State's OC Brian Lindgren
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Aidan Chiles19232459%241513127.5
Alessio Milivojevic010%0010.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Aidan Chiles9623432.426
Nick Marsh42305.811
Makhi Frazier72103.08
Brandon Tullis72002.99
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Omari Kelly (Tr)53869416.471
Chrishon Mccray (Tr)40705917.668
Nick Marsh41649315.877
Jack Velling36411111.434

View Michigan State's Full Roster
Michigan State's DC Joe Rossi
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nikai Martinez513012
Malik Spencer441002
Tracy Revels (Tr)400021
David Santiago (Tr)375423
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Santiago (Tr)375423
Isaac Smith (Tr)314310
Alex VanSumeren163200
Ben Roberts82100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Joshua Eaton (Tr)242115
David Santiago (Tr)375423
Malcolm Bell (Tr)261003