Ohio State at Texas - 2024 Matchup Preview
Ohio State logo (#3)Ohio State Buckeyes vs Texas Longhorns(#1)Texas logo
Friday, January 10th 2025 (7:30 PM EST)
Ohio State -6.5 (51.5) (-258)  Open: 0.0
Ohio State 28 - Texas: 14  (CFP Semifinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic)

 
Buckeyes (14 - 2) (10 - 6 - 0)
Coach Ryan Day (56 - 8)
Avg Score : 36 - 13 (30 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 14 - 2 (#1)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Ohio State -7   (SP+ OSU -7)

Projected Score: OSU: 29 - TEX: 22 (51)
OSU Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
OSU Travel: 1066 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Longhorns (13 - 3) (8 - 8 - 0)
Coach Steve Sarkisian (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 33 - 15 (41 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 13 - 3 (#3)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Ohio State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Ohio State vs Akron-50.558.5W 52 - 6UN
Sat 9/7 Ohio State vs Western Michigan-37.554.5W 56 - 0OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 Ohio State vs Marshall-40.057.0W 49 - 14ON
Sat 9/28 Ohio State at Michigan State-23.548.5W 38 - 7UY
Sat 10/5 Ohio State vs Iowa-17.046.0W 35 - 7UY
Sat 10/12 Ohio State at Oregon-3.554.5L 31 - 32ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26 Ohio State vs Nebraska-25.048.5W 21 - 17UN
Sat 11/2 Ohio State at Penn State-3.047.5W 20 - 13UY
Sat 11/9 Ohio State vs Purdue-37.555.5W 45 - 0UY
Sat 11/16 Ohio State vs Northwestern-28.043.5W 31 - 7UN
Sat 11/23 Ohio State vs Indiana-10.552.5W 38 - 15OY
Sat 11/30 Ohio State vs Michigan-20.541.5L 10 - 13UN
Sat 12/21 Ohio State vs Tennessee-7.547.0W 42 - 17OY
Wed 1/1 Ohio State vs Oregon-2.555.5W 41 - 21OY
Fri 1/10 Ohio State vs Texas-6.551.5W 28 - 14UY
Mon 1/20 Ohio State vs Notre Dame-8.545.5W 34 - 23OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ohio State's Schedule
Texas's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Texas vs Colorado State-35.559.0W 52 - 0UY
Sat 9/7 Texas at Michigan-7.042.0W 31 - 12OY
Sat 9/14 Texas vs UTSA-36.556.5W 56 - 7OY
Sat 9/21 Texas vs UL Monroe-43.554.5W 51 - 3UY
Sat 9/28 Texas vs Mississippi State-37.058.5W 35 - 13UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Texas vs Oklahoma-16.548.5W 34 - 3UY
Sat 10/19 Texas vs Georgia-4.057.0L 15 - 30UN
Sat 10/26 Texas at Vanderbilt-17.050.5W 27 - 24ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9 Texas vs Florida-24.548.5W 49 - 17OY
Sat 11/16 Texas at Arkansas-13.057.5W 20 - 10UN
Sat 11/23 Texas vs Kentucky-18.547.0W 31 - 14UN
Sat 11/30 Texas at Texas A&M-4.549.5W 17 - 7UY
Sat 12/7 Texas vs Georgia-2.550.5L 19 - 22UN
Sat 12/21 Texas vs Clemson-13.549.5W 38 - 24OY
Wed 1/1 Texas vs Arizona State-13.552.5W 39 - 31ON
Fri 1/10 Texas vs Ohio State+6.551.5L 14 - 28UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
OSU#1 (.43)52% (3)35.748% (19)3.37 (15)13756% (1)2114.6 (15)#2 (-.01)36% (7)12.939% (26)34% (8)2.05 (1)31.60.81.1
TEX#39 (.24)46% (27)3349% (16)2.95 (84)15244% (43)2414.03 (54)#3 (-.01)38% (22)15.342% (61)34% (7)2.57 (3)44.31.41.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
OSU#1 (.43)52% (3)48% (19)3.37 (15)13756% (1)2114.6 (15)#2 (-.01)36% (7)39% (26)34% (8)2.05 (1)31.60.81.1
TEX#39 (.24)46% (27)49% (16)2.95 (84)15244% (43)2414.03 (54)#3 (-.01)38% (22)42% (61)34% (7)2.57 (3)44.31.41.8



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
OSU Offense1635.729.751.8%4.60.817347137211549%50%48%56%12%.43
TEX Defense1615.313.538%2.571.8 - - - - - 50%50%42%34%21%-.01
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
OSU Defense1612.917.336.3%2.051.1 - - - - - 53%46%39%34%19%-.01
TEX Offense163340.946.3%4.031.4203931522414.746%54%49%44%16%.24

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Ohio State1624:2716.942%70%3.431.60.81.15.12.4228.8
Texas1626:4219.843%54%5.444.31.41.86.22.5131.4
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
OSU Offense1649% (77)48% (19)27.3136.8528 (25).31 (8)3.37 (15)76% (48)7% (7)1.11 (16)
TEX Defense1650% (59)42% (61) - - - - -.04 (3)2.79 (33)55% (2)14% (8)0.72 (3)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
OSU Defense1653% (90)39% (26) - - - - .01 (15)2.9 (48)67% (33)13% (16)0.87 (20)
TEX Offense1646% (98)49% (16)32.6152.24.725 (41).13 (69)2.95 (84)67% (106)11% (97)0.91 (96)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
OSU Offense1650% (60)56% (1)16.723.4210.6912.631 (6)9 (48).58 (1)1.6 (70)27% (7)37% (12).55 (6)5% (42)2.1 (41)
TEX Defense1650% (79)34% (7) - - - - - - 20 (2).04 (3)1.4 (14)33% (53)28% (35).14 (7)8% (17)1.6 (3)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
OSU Defense1646% (35)34% (8) - - - - - - 9 (76).02 (2)1.5 (28)32% (74)30% (66).16 (13)6% (61)1.7 (6)
TEX Offense1654% (34)44% (43)19.629.5240.98.212.335 (3)12 (85).33 (34)1.7 (28)32% (71)38% (9).51 (7)5% (41)2.1 (57)

Ohio State's Power Ratings
Ohio State's Power Rating: 32.14 #1
Ohio State's Offense Rating: 29.14 #5
Ohio State's Defense Rating: -3.55 #1
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 75% #2
Ohio State's 2024 Expected Record: 14.0 - 2.0
Ohio State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 31.2 #1
Ohio State's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.5 #3
Ohio State's Defense SP+ Rating: 9.2 #1

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Ohio State: 32.14   Texas: 24.73

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ohio State: 31.2   Texas: 24.1




Texas's Power Ratings
Texas's Power Rating: 24.73 #3
Texas's Offense Rating: 23.63 #31
Texas's Defense Rating: -0.40 #3
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 66 #4
Texas's 2024 Expected Record: 13.0 - 3.0
Texas's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.1 #7
Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.6 #13
Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 10.8 #2

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Ohio State Scoring
Offense: 35.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.7
Defense: 12.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 17.3

Ohio State's 2024 Record
Record: 14 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Ohio State 29
Texas 22


Total Points: 51

Texas Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense at Home: 40.9
Defense: 15.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 13.5

Texas's 2024 Record
Record: 13 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202508/30Ohio State14Texas7Ohio StateOhio State -1.5Ohio State46.5Under
202401/10Texas14Ohio State28Ohio StateOhio State -6.5Ohio State51.5Under
200801/05Texas24Ohio State21Texas
200609/09Texas7Ohio State24Ohio State
200509/10Ohio State22Texas25Texas
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas200 Overs
Ohio State322 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 31 - 11 - 00 - 1
Road Teams3 - 21 - 11 - 00 - 1

Ohio State Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2024CFP Nat'l Title Ohio State vs Notre Dame-8.545.5W 34 - 23
2024CFP Semifinal Ohio State vs Texas-6.551.5W 28 - 14
2024CFP Quarterfinal Ohio State vs Oregon-2.555.5W 41 - 21
2024CFP 1st Round Ohio State vs Tennessee-7.547.0W 42 - 17
2023Cotton Bowl Ohio State vs Missouri-4.051.0L 3 - 14
2022CFP Semifinal Ohio State vs Georgia+5.562.0L 41 - 42
2021Rose Bowl Ohio State vs Utah-4.564.5W 48 - 45
2020CFP Nat'l Title Ohio State vs Alabama+9.575.0L 24 - 52
2020CFP Semifinal Ohio State vs Clemson+7.566.5W 49 - 28
2019CFP Semifinal Ohio State vs Clemson+3.063.5L 23 - 29
2018Rose Bowl Ohio State vs Washington-5.555.5W 28 - 23
Texas Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2024CFP Semifinal Texas vs Ohio State+6.551.5L 14 - 28
2024CFP Quarterfinal Texas vs Arizona State-13.552.5W 39 - 31
2024CFP 1st Round Texas vs Clemson-13.549.5W 38 - 24
2023CFP Semifinal Texas vs Washington-3.061.5L 31 - 37
2022Alamo Bowl Texas vs Washington-3.067.0L 20 - 27
2020Alamo Bowl Texas vs Colorado-9.563.5W 55 - 23
2019N/A Texas vs Utah+7.557.0W 38 - 10
2018Sugar Bowl Texas vs Georgia+12.059.0W 28 - 21
  
(#1) Ohio State Info
Power Rating: 32.14 #1
Offense Rating: 29.14 #5
Defense Rating: -3.55 #1
Overall SP+ Rating: 31.2 #1
Offense SP+ Rating: 39.5 #3
Defense SP+ Rating: 9.2 #1
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 75% #2
Expected Record: 14.0 - 2.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
Great Offense Success Rate of 52%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.6 PPO
Great Run Success 48%
Great Pass Success 56%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 36%
Great in Scoring Position 2.05 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Great Pass Def Success 34%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position

Ohio State has played in 9 CFP Playoff Games (6 - 3)
Ohio State has played in 10 Bowls in the last 5 years (6 - 4)
Ohio State has played in 29 Bowls since 2000 (17 - 12)

Ohio State Notes
(12/1) Off awful, Rgame abysmal, Howard 2 Int in UM L
(12/1) 20 mil roster, still can't beat U. Coaching fail
(11/24) Mauled IU, D held to 153 yds. Off was OK
(11/19) Starting C McLaughlin out for season (ACL)
(11/18) Flat start vs NW, Howard OK, Rgame just OK
(11/3) OL was great considering injuries. Rgame beat PSU
(11/2) Def owned Penn St. Howard tough, Rgame alive
(10/26) Backup LT went down in Nebraska game
(10/22) Starting LT Simmons out for season
(10/12) Def torched by Oregon. Judkins/Downs vanished

Ohio State Highlights
Ohio State offense is efficent (#19)
Ohio State offense is explosive (#91)
Ohio State has a top Offensive Line (#69)
Ohio State offense is good in red zone (#18)
Ohio State Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Ohio State has a really good defense (#24)
Ohio State defense does not give up big plays (#9)
Ohio State defense is really good in red zone (#8)
Ohio State has a good run defense (#41)
Ohio State has a good pass defense (#25)
Ohio State Front 7 is disruptive (#48)
Ohio State has a great TO Margin (#54)
Ohio State commits very few Penalties (#16)

Ohio State Deficiencies

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatTEXOSU
OverallOver#5#2
OffenseOff#17#5
DefenseDef#1#2
Special TeamsST#29#10
PassingPass#48#16
RushingRush#18#14
Run BlockRBLK#27#24
Pass BlockPBLK#1#82
Route RunningWR Rt#18#4
TacklingTkl#32#11
Run DefenseR Def#14#3
Pass Rush DefPRush#5#17
Coverage DefCov#1#7

Rematch from Week 1
Ohio State 6.5 (51.5)
Ohio State won at Texas this year (28-14)

Previous Matchups
Ohio State beat Texas last year (28-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in AT&T Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: OSU | TEX
Depth Chart: OSU | TEX
Rosters: OSU | TEX
(#3) Texas Info
Power Rating: 24.73 #3
Offense Rating: 23.63 #31
Defense Rating: -0.40 #3
Overall SP+ Rating: 24.1 #7
Offense SP+ Rating: 36.6 #13
Defense SP+ Rating: 10.8 #2
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 66 #4
Expected Record: 13.0 - 3.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
Good Offense Success Rate of 46%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.03 PPO
Great Run Success 49%
Good Pass Success 44%
Good OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 38%
Great in Scoring Position 2.57 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 42%
Great Pass Def Success 34%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

Texas has played in 4 CFP Playoff Games (2 - 2)
Texas has played in 7 Bowls in the last 5 years (4 - 3)
Texas has played in 23 Bowls since 2000 (15 - 8)

Texas Highlights
Texas is Undefeated away from Home

Texas has Really Good Running Game (#47)
Texas offense is efficent (#86)
Texas Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Texas has a really good defense (#25)
Texas defense does not give up big plays (#2)
Texas defense is really good in red zone (#38)
Texas has a good pass defense (#24)
Texas Front 7 is disruptive (#110)
Texas Secondary is very good (#26)
Texas defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Texas Deficiencies
Texas has a bad TO Margin (#82)
Texas Fumbles a Lot (#42)
Texas Commits a Lot of Penalties (#121)
Texas Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#44)


  
Ohio State's OC Chip Kelly
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Will Howard (Tr)30942373%401035109.5
Devin Brown112055%114105.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Quinshon Judkins (Tr)1941060145.586
TreVeyon Henderson1441016107.166
Will Howard (Tr)10522672.219
James Peoples4919724.018
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremiah Smith7613151517.370
Emeka Egbuka8110111012.568
Carnell Tate52733414.140
TreVeyon Henderson27284110.575

View Ohio State's Full Roster
Ohio State's DC Jim Knowles
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cody Simon11213707
Sonny Styles10011605
Caleb Downs (Tr)818116
Lathan Ransom759112
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
J.T. Tuimoloau61221353
Jack Sawyer599986
Cody Simon11213707
Sonny Styles10011605
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Davison Igbinosun452009
Jordan Hancock482118
Cody Simon11213707

Texas's OC Kyle Flood
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Quinn Ewers29344566%347231127.8
Arch Manning619068%9389210.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Wisner226106454.743
Jaydon Blue13473085.477
Jerrick Gibson7837744.825
Arch Manning2510844.367
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Matthew Golden (Tr)58987917.054
Gunnar Helm60786713.149
Isaiah Bond (Tr)34540515.956
DeAndre Moore Jr.39455711.749

View Texas's Full Roster
Texas's DC Pete Kwiatkowski
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Anthony Hill Jr.11317841
Michael Taaffe7862110
Andrew Mukuba (Tr)694016
Jahdae Barron6731210
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Colin Simmons4814992
Anthony Hill Jr.11317841
Trey Moore (Tr)3611761
Barryn Sorrell43116121
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jahdae Barron6731210
Michael Taaffe7862110
Malik Muhammad361008