Ohio State at Texas - 2024 Matchup Preview

Friday, January 10th 2025 (7:30 PM EST)
Ohio State -6.5 (51.5) (-258) Open: 0.0
Ohio State 28 - Texas: 14 (CFP Semifinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic)

Buckeyes (14 - 2) (10 - 6 - 0)
Coach Ryan Day (56 - 8)
Avg Score : 33 - 9 (31 - 8 on Road)
Record Prediction: 14 - 2 (#1)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Ohio State -7 (SP+ OSU -7)
Projected Score: OSU: 28 - TEX: 21 (49)
OSU Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
OSU Travel: 928 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Longhorns (13 - 3) (8 - 8 - 0)
Coach Steve Sarkisian (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (39 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 13 - 3 (#3)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
OSU Players
TEX Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Ohio State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Ohio State vs Akron	-50.5	58.5	W 52 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/7	Ohio State vs Western Michigan	-37.5	54.5	W 56 - 0	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Ohio State vs Marshall	-40.0	57.0	W 49 - 14	O	N
Sat 9/28	Ohio State at Michigan State	-23.5	48.5	W 38 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Ohio State vs Iowa	-17.0	46.0	W 35 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Ohio State at Oregon	-3.5	54.5	L 31 - 32	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	Ohio State vs Nebraska	-25.0	48.5	W 21 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/2	Ohio State at Penn State	-3.0	47.5	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Ohio State vs Purdue	-37.5	55.5	W 45 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/16	Ohio State vs Northwestern	-28.0	43.5	W 31 - 7	U	N
Sat 11/23	Ohio State vs Indiana	-10.5	52.5	W 38 - 15	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Ohio State vs Michigan	-20.5	41.5	L 10 - 13	U	N
Sat 12/21	Ohio State vs Tennessee	-7.5	47.0	W 42 - 17	O	Y
Wed 1/1	Ohio State vs Oregon	-2.5	55.5	W 41 - 21	O	Y
Fri 1/10	Ohio State vs Texas	-6.5	51.5	W 28 - 14	U	Y
Mon 1/20	Ohio State vs Notre Dame	-8.5	45.5	W 34 - 23	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ohio State's Schedule

Texas's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Texas vs Colorado State	-35.5	59.0	W 52 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Texas at Michigan	-7.0	42.0	W 31 - 12	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Texas vs UTSA	-36.5	56.5	W 56 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Texas vs UL Monroe	-43.5	54.5	W 51 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Texas vs Mississippi State	-37.0	58.5	W 35 - 13	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Texas vs Oklahoma	-16.5	48.5	W 34 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Texas vs Georgia	-4.0	57.0	L 15 - 30	U	N
Sat 10/26	Texas at Vanderbilt	-17.0	50.5	W 27 - 24	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Texas vs Florida	-24.5	48.5	W 49 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Texas at Arkansas	-13.0	57.5	W 20 - 10	U	N
Sat 11/23	Texas vs Kentucky	-18.5	47.0	W 31 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/30	Texas at Texas A&M	-4.5	49.5	W 17 - 7	U	Y
Sat 12/7	Texas vs Georgia	-2.5	50.5	L 19 - 22	U	N
Sat 12/21	Texas vs Clemson	-13.5	49.5	W 38 - 24	O	Y
Wed 1/1	Texas vs Arizona State	-13.5	52.5	W 39 - 31	O	N
Fri 1/10	Texas vs Ohio State	+6.5	51.5	L 14 - 28	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OSU	#14 (.31)	47% (22)	33.4	45% (49)	3.18 (57)	139	49% (12)	269	4.21 (36)	#5 (.03)	36% (11)	9.3	35% (12)	37% (17)	2.69 (5)	44.5	1	0.8
TEX	#33 (.28)	45% (43)	30.5	42% (81)	3.19 (54)	176	48% (16)	266	3.84 (75)	#15 (.1)	36% (14)	20.3	33% (5)	38% (26)	3.43 (38)	47.5	1.1	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TEX		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OSU Offense	13	33.4	30.6	46.6%	4.21	1	21	408	139	269	4.2	48%	51%	45%	49%	14%	.31
TEX Defense	14	20.3	17	35.9%	3.43	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	41%	58%	33%	38%	19%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OSU Defense	13	9.3	8.2	35.8%	2.69	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	35%	37%	15%	.03
TEX Offense	14	30.5	38.8	44.7%	3.84	1.1	21	442	176	266	4.9	49%	51%	42%	48%	14%	.28

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Ohio State	13	29:25	20.9	43%	56%	5.7	44.5	1	0.8	4.8	1.7	3	28.8
Texas	14	29:31	21.4	39%	63%	5.9	47.5	1.1	1.6	5.4	2.1	5	31

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OSU Offense	13	48% (83)	45% (49)	33.2	138.8	4.2	20 (61)	.15 (72)	3.18 (57)	78% (34)	7% (14)	0.84 (126)
TEX Defense	14	41% (4)	33% (5)	-	-	-	-	-.06 (4)	2.45 (5)	54% (2)	11% (37)	0.79 (5)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OSU Defense	13	51% (85)	35% (12)	-	-	-	-	.04 (18)	3.02 (52)	58% (7)	9% (103)	0.98 (56)
TEX Offense	14	49% (80)	42% (81)	35.6	175.6	4.9	26 (30)	.21 (35)	3.19 (54)	64% (121)	8% (33)	1.13 (14)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OSU Offense	13	51% (49)	49% (12)	19.6	30.8	269.1	8.8	13.7	26 (31)	7 (21)	.5 (10)	1.7 (44)	28% (12)	34% (33)	.48 (23)	7% (95)	2 (99)
TEX Defense	14	58% (131)	38% (26)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (9)	.24 (52)	1.7 (92)	36% (20)	28% (31)	.27 (42)	8% (15)	2.1 (87)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OSU Defense	13	49% (62)	37% (17)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.04 (1)	1.4 (2)	33% (51)	26% (21)	.15 (6)	7% (47)	1.8 (13)
TEX Offense	14	51% (50)	48% (16)	20.9	30.9	266.4	8.6	12.7	24 (41)	9 (40)	.35 (38)	1.5 (102)	30% (32)	34% (32)	.45 (32)	5% (46)	2.1 (52)

Ohio State's Power Ratings
Ohio State's Power Rating: 32.14 #1
Ohio State's Offense Rating: 29.14 #5
Ohio State's Defense Rating: -3.55 #1
2024 Talent Rating: 656.00 #3
Blue Chip Ratio: 75% #2
Ohio State's 2024 Expected Record: 14.0 - 2.0
Ohio State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 31.2 #1
Ohio State's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.5 #3
Ohio State's Defense SP+ Rating: 9.2 #1

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 444.83
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Ohio State: 32.14 Texas: 24.73

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ohio State: 31.2 Texas: 24.1

Texas's Power Ratings
Texas's Power Rating: 24.73 #3
Texas's Offense Rating: 23.63 #31
Texas's Defense Rating: -0.40 #3
2024 Talent Rating: 617.00 #6
Blue Chip Ratio: 66 #4
Texas's 2024 Expected Record: 13.0 - 3.0
Texas's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.1 #7
Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.6 #13
Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 10.8 #2

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 511.63
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Ohio State Scoring
Offense: 33.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.6
Defense: 9.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 8.2

Ohio State's 2024 Record
Record: 14 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 9
Record on Road: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Ohio State 28
Texas 21

Projected Total Points: 49

Texas Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.8
Defense: 20.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

Texas's 2024 Record
Record: 13 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 10
Record at home: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	08/30	Ohio State	14	Texas	7	Ohio State -1.5	Ohio State	46.5	Under
2024	01/10	Texas	14	Ohio State	28	Ohio State -6.5	Ohio State	51.5	Under
2008	01/05	Texas	24	Ohio State	21
2006	09/09	Texas	7	Ohio State	24
2005	09/10	Ohio State	22	Texas	25

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Texas	2	0	0 Overs
Ohio State	3	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 3	1 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	3 - 2	1 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 1

Ohio State Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2024	CFP Nat'l Title	Ohio State vs Notre Dame	-8.5	45.5	W 34 - 23
2024	CFP Semifinal	Ohio State vs Texas	-6.5	51.5	W 28 - 14
2024	CFP Quarterfinal	Ohio State vs Oregon	-2.5	55.5	W 41 - 21
2024	CFP 1st Round	Ohio State vs Tennessee	-7.5	47.0	W 42 - 17
2023	Cotton Bowl	Ohio State vs Missouri	-4.0	51.0	L 3 - 14
2022	CFP Semifinal	Ohio State vs Georgia	+5.5	62.0	L 41 - 42
2021	Rose Bowl	Ohio State vs Utah	-4.5	64.5	W 48 - 45
2020	CFP Nat'l Title	Ohio State vs Alabama	+9.5	75.0	L 24 - 52
2020	CFP Semifinal	Ohio State vs Clemson	+7.5	66.5	W 49 - 28
2019	CFP Semifinal	Ohio State vs Clemson	+3.0	63.5	L 23 - 29
2018	Rose Bowl	Ohio State vs Washington	-5.5	55.5	W 28 - 23

Texas Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2024	CFP Semifinal	Texas vs Ohio State	+6.5	51.5	L 14 - 28
2024	CFP Quarterfinal	Texas vs Arizona State	-13.5	52.5	W 39 - 31
2024	CFP 1st Round	Texas vs Clemson	-13.5	49.5	W 38 - 24
2023	CFP Semifinal	Texas vs Washington	-3.0	61.5	L 31 - 37
2022	Alamo Bowl	Texas vs Washington	-3.0	67.0	L 20 - 27
2020	Alamo Bowl	Texas vs Colorado	-9.5	63.5	W 55 - 23
2019	N/A	Texas vs Utah	+7.5	57.0	W 38 - 10
2018	Sugar Bowl	Texas vs Georgia	+12.0	59.0	W 28 - 21

(#1) OSU at (#3) TEX

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	OSU	TEX
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#1	#3
SP+SP+	#1	#7
Perf GradeGrade	#2	#5
OffenseOff	#5	#18
DefenseDef	#2	#1
Spec TeamsST	#11	#33
TalentTal	#3	#6
Blue ChipsBC%	#2	#4

Ohio State Notes(12/17) QB's Noland (Fr) & Brown (Jr) left via portal
(12/1) Off awful, Rgame abysmal, Howard 2 Int in UM L
(12/1) 20 mil roster, still can't beat U. Coaching fail
(11/24) Mauled IU, D held to 153 yds. Off was OK
(11/19) Starting C McLaughlin out for season (ACL)
(11/18) Flat start vs NW, Howard OK, Rgame just OK
(11/3) OL was great considering injuries. Rgame beat PSU
(11/2) Def owned Penn St. Howard tough, Rgame alive
(10/26) Backup LT went down in Nebraska game
(10/22) Starting LT Simmons out for season
(10/12) Def torched by Oregon. Judkins/Downs vanished
(10/6) B2B drubbings (MSU/Iowa). Top #s, Rzone esp
Ohio State Injury Report

Texas Injury Report

Ohio State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	OSU Off	TEX Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#5	#1
SuccessSuc	#22	#14
ExplosiveExp	#78	#94
PPAPPA	#14	#15
PowerPwr	#5	#3
SP+SP+	#3	#2
Pts POPPO	#36	#38
HavocHav	#29	#21

Ohio State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	OSU Off	TEX Def
Run GameRun	#19	#15
Run SuccessRSuc	#49	#5
Run ExplRExp	#126	#5
PPAExp	#72	#4
Run BlockR Blk	#29	-
OL YdsOLY	#57	#5
Stuff RateStuff	#52	#11
TackleTak	-	#35

Ohio State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	OSU Off	TEX Def
Pass GamePass	#18	#1
Pass SuccessPSuc	#12	#26
Pass ExplPExl	#44	#92
PPAExp	#10	#52
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#97	#5
F7 HavocF7	#14	#37
DB HavocDB	#95	#15

Texas on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TEX Off	OSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#18	#2
SuccessSuc	#43	#11
ExplosiveExp	#40	#11
PPAPPA	#33	#5
PowerPwr	#31	#1
SP+SP+	#13	#1
Pts POPPO	#75	#5
HavocHav	#27	#85

Texas Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TEX Off	OSU Def
Run GameRun	#25	#3
Run SuccessRSuc	#81	#12
Run ExplRExp	#14	#56
PPAExp	#35	#18
Run BlockR Blk	#33	-
OL YdsOLY	#54	#52
Stuff RateStuff	#79	#86
TackleTak	-	#12

Texas Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TEX Off	OSU Def
Pass GamePass	#61	#7
Pass SuccessPSuc	#16	#17
Pass ExplPExl	#102	#2
PPAExp	#38	#1
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#1	#18
F7 HavocF7	#33	#103
DB HavocDB	#46	#47

Program Comparison
TEX 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'24 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

OSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'24 Profile: Remains CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in AT&T Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Ohio State 6.5 (51.5)
Ohio State won at Texas this year (28-14)

Previous Matchups
Ohio State beat Texas last year (14-7)
Ohio State beat Texas in 2024 (28-14)

OSU's OC Chip Kelly (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Will Howard (Tr)	309	423	73%	4010	35	10	9.5
Devin Brown	11	20	55%	114	1	0	5.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Quinshon Judkins (Tr)	194	1060	14	5.5	86
TreVeyon Henderson	144	1016	10	7.1	66
Will Howard (Tr)	105	226	7	2.2	19
James Peoples	49	197	2	4.0	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jeremiah Smith	76	1315	15	17.3	70
Emeka Egbuka	81	1011	10	12.5	68
Carnell Tate	52	733	4	14.1	40
TreVeyon Henderson	27	284	1	10.5	75

View Ohio State's Full Roster

OSU's DC Jim Knowles (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cody Simon	112	13	7	0	7
Sonny Styles	100	11	6	0	5
Caleb Downs (Tr)	81	8	1	1	6
Lathan Ransom	75	9	1	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
J.T. Tuimoloau	61	22	13	5	3
Jack Sawyer	59	9	9	8	6
Cody Simon	112	13	7	0	7
Sonny Styles	100	11	6	0	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Davison Igbinosun	45	2	0	0	9
Jordan Hancock	48	2	1	1	8
Cody Simon	112	13	7	0	7

TEX's OC Kyle Flood (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Quinn Ewers	293	445	66%	3472	31	12	7.8
Arch Manning	61	90	68%	938	9	2	10.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tre Wisner	226	1064	5	4.7	43
Jaydon Blue	134	730	8	5.4	77
Jerrick Gibson	78	377	4	4.8	25
Arch Manning	25	108	4	4.3	67

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Matthew Golden (Tr)	58	987	9	17.0	54
Gunnar Helm	60	786	7	13.1	49
Isaiah Bond (Tr)	34	540	5	15.9	56
DeAndre Moore Jr.	39	455	7	11.7	49

View Texas's Full Roster

TEX's DC Pete Kwiatkowski (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Anthony Hill Jr.	113	17	8	4	1
Michael Taaffe	78	6	2	1	10
Andrew Mukuba (Tr)	69	4	0	1	6
Jahdae Barron	67	3	1	2	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Colin Simmons	48	14	9	9	2
Anthony Hill Jr.	113	17	8	4	1
Trey Moore (Tr)	36	11	7	6	1
Barryn Sorrell	43	11	6	12	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jahdae Barron	67	3	1	2	10
Michael Taaffe	78	6	2	1	10
Malik Muhammad	36	1	0	0	8