Texas at Arizona State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Texas Longhorns vs Arizona State Sun Devils

Wednesday, January 1st 2025 (1:00 PM EST)
Texas -13.5 (52.5) (-600) Open: 0.0 | 52.0
Texas 39 - Arizona State: 31 (CFP Quarterfinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl)

Longhorns (13 - 3) (8 - 8 - 0)
Coach Steve Sarkisian (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (20 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 13 - 3 (#3)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Texas -12 (SP+ TEX -14.5)
Projected Score: TEX: 31 - ASU: 19 (50)
TEX Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
TEX Travel: 816 miles, 1 hrs behind

Sun Devils (11 - 3) (12 - 2 - 0)
Coach Kenny Dillingham (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (25 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
TEX Players
ASU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Texas's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Texas vs Colorado State	-35.5	59.0	W 52 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Texas at Michigan	-7.0	42.0	W 31 - 12	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Texas vs UTSA	-36.5	56.5	W 56 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Texas vs UL Monroe	-43.5	54.5	W 51 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Texas vs Mississippi State	-37.0	58.5	W 35 - 13	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Texas vs Oklahoma	-16.5	48.5	W 34 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Texas vs Georgia	-4.0	57.0	L 15 - 30	U	N
Sat 10/26	Texas at Vanderbilt	-17.0	50.5	W 27 - 24	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Texas vs Florida	-24.5	48.5	W 49 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Texas at Arkansas	-13.0	57.5	W 20 - 10	U	N
Sat 11/23	Texas vs Kentucky	-18.5	47.0	W 31 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/30	Texas at Texas A&M	-4.5	49.5	W 17 - 7	U	Y
Sat 12/7	Texas vs Georgia	-2.5	50.5	L 19 - 22	U	N
Sat 12/21	Texas vs Clemson	-13.5	49.5	W 38 - 24	O	Y
Wed 1/1	Texas vs Arizona State	-13.5	52.5	W 39 - 31	O	N
Fri 1/10	Texas vs Ohio State	+6.5	51.5	L 14 - 28	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas's Schedule

Arizona State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Arizona State vs Wyoming	-6.5	47.0	W 48 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Arizona State vs Mississippi State	-6.5	57.5	W 30 - 23	U	Y
Thu 9/12	Arizona State at Texas State	+2.5	58.5	W 31 - 28	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Arizona State at Texas Tech	+4.5	58.5	L 22 - 30	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Arizona State vs Kansas	-2.5	50.0	W 35 - 31	O	Y
Fri 10/11	Arizona State vs Utah	+6.0	46.5	W 27 - 19	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Arizona State at Cincinnati	+5.5	51.0	L 14 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	Arizona State at Oklahoma State	-5.0	57.0	W 42 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Arizona State vs UCF	-2.5	55.5	W 35 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Arizona State at Kansas State	+7.5	51.5	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Arizona State vs BYU	-3.5	49.0	W 28 - 23	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Arizona State at Arizona	-7.5	52.5	W 49 - 7	O	Y
Sat 12/7	Arizona State vs Iowa State	+1.5	51.5	W 45 - 19	O	Y
Wed 1/1	Arizona State vs Texas	+13.5	52.5	L 31 - 39	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TEX	#33 (.28)	45% (43)	30.5	42% (81)	3.19 (54)	176	48% (16)	266	3.84 (75)	#15 (.1)	36% (14)	20.3	33% (5)	38% (26)	3.43 (38)	47.5	1.1	1.6
ASU	#110 (.12)	38% (112)	25.8	44% (57)	3.14 (62)	111	34% (123)	210	3.28 (108)	#112 (.25)	47% (123)	24.5	47% (105)	47% (125)	3.99 (86)	51.8	1.7	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TEX		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ASU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TEX Offense	14	30.5	19.8	44.7%	3.84	1.1	21	442	176	266	4.9	49%	51%	42%	48%	14%	.28
ASU Defense	12	24.5	21.4	46.5%	3.99	1	-	-	-	-	-	42%	58%	47%	47%	16%	.25

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TEX Defense	14	20.3	25.8	35.9%	3.43	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	41%	58%	33%	38%	19%	.1
ASU Offense	12	25.8	24.7	37.7%	3.28	1.7	19	322	111	210	3.6	43%	56%	44%	34%	18%	.12

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Texas	14	29:31	21.4	39%	63%	5.9	47.5	1.1	1.6	5.4	2.1	5	31
Arizona State	12	30:16	18.8	31%	47%	5.8	51.8	1.7	1	5.4	2.2	0	25.1

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TEX Offense	14	49% (80)	42% (81)	35.6	175.6	4.9	26 (30)	.21 (35)	3.19 (54)	64% (121)	8% (33)	1.13 (14)
ASU Defense	12	42% (5)	47% (105)	-	-	-	-	.2 (104)	3.53 (130)	72% (63)	10% (60)	0.99 (65)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TEX Defense	14	41% (4)	33% (5)	-	-	-	-	-.06 (4)	2.45 (5)	54% (2)	11% (37)	0.79 (5)
ASU Offense	12	43% (113)	44% (57)	31.2	111.2	3.6	17 (81)	.2 (42)	3.14 (62)	67% (107)	10% (73)	0.99 (71)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TEX Offense	14	51% (50)	48% (16)	20.9	30.9	266.4	8.6	12.7	24 (41)	9 (40)	.35 (38)	1.5 (102)	30% (32)	34% (32)	.45 (32)	5% (46)	2.1 (52)
ASU Defense	12	58% (129)	47% (125)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (126)	.3 (91)	1.4 (6)	30% (110)	33% (105)	.41 (109)	6% (67)	1.9 (21)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TEX Defense	14	58% (131)	38% (26)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (9)	.24 (52)	1.7 (92)	36% (20)	28% (31)	.27 (42)	8% (15)	2.1 (87)
ASU Offense	12	56% (23)	34% (123)	20.3	36.7	210.3	5.7	10.4	8 (128)	14 (107)	.1 (124)	1.5 (95)	34% (111)	25% (113)	.23 (102)	8% (120)	2.1 (41)

Texas's Power Ratings
Texas's Power Rating: 25.36 #3
Texas's Offense Rating: 23.63 #31
Texas's Defense Rating: -0.40 #3
2024 Talent Rating: 617.00 #6
Blue Chip Ratio: 66% #4
Texas's 2024 Expected Record: 13.0 - 3.0
Texas's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.1 #7
Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.6 #13
Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 10.8 #2

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 511.63
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas: 25.36 Arizona State: 12.705

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas: 24.1 Arizona State: 9.4

Arizona State's Power Ratings
Arizona State's Power Rating: 12.705 #12
Arizona State's Offense Rating: 28.03 #7
Arizona State's Defense Rating: 7.01 #43
2024 Talent Rating: 374.00 #47
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #53
Arizona State's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
Arizona State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.4 #35
Arizona State's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.4 #32
Arizona State's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #26

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 366.75
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Texas Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.8
Defense: 20.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.8

Texas's 2024 Record
Record: 13 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 10
Record on Road: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Texas 31
Arizona State 19

Projected Total Points: 50

Arizona State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.7
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.4

Arizona State's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 12 - 2 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 5
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	01/01	Arizona State	31	Texas	39	Texas -13.5	Arizona State	52.5	Over
2007	12/27	Texas	52	Arizona State	34

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arizona State	0	1	1 Overs
Texas	2	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0

Texas Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2024	CFP Semifinal	Texas vs Ohio State	+6.5	51.5	L 14 - 28
2024	CFP Quarterfinal	Texas vs Arizona State	-13.5	52.5	W 39 - 31
2024	CFP 1st Round	Texas vs Clemson	-13.5	49.5	W 38 - 24
2023	CFP Semifinal	Texas vs Washington	-3.0	61.5	L 31 - 37
2022	Alamo Bowl	Texas vs Washington	-3.0	67.0	L 20 - 27
2020	Alamo Bowl	Texas vs Colorado	-9.5	63.5	W 55 - 23
2019	N/A	Texas vs Utah	+7.5	57.0	W 38 - 10
2018	Sugar Bowl	Texas vs Georgia	+12.0	59.0	W 28 - 21

Arizona State Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2024	CFP Quarterfinal	Arizona State vs Texas	+13.5	52.5	L 31 - 39
2021	Vegas Bowl	Arizona State vs Wisconsin	+8.5	42.5	L 13 - 20
2019	N/A	Arizona State vs Florida State	-3.5	51.5	W 20 - 14
2018	Vegas Bowl	Arizona State vs Fresno State	+6.0	54.0	L 20 - 31

(#3) TEX at (#12) ASU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TEX	ASU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#3	#12
SP+SP+	#7	#35
Perf GradeGrade	#5	#76
OffenseOff	#18	#40
DefenseDef	#1	#98
Spec TeamsST	#33	#86
TalentTal	#6	#47
Blue ChipsBC%	#4	#53

Texas Injury Report

Arizona State Injury Report

Texas on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TEX Off	ASU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#18	#98
SuccessSuc	#43	#123
ExplosiveExp	#40	#30
PPAPPA	#33	#112
PowerPwr	#31	#43
SP+SP+	#13	#26
Pts POPPO	#75	#86
HavocHav	#27	#62

Texas Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TEX Off	ASU Def
Run GameRun	#25	#81
Run SuccessRSuc	#81	#105
Run ExplRExp	#14	#65
PPAExp	#35	#104
Run BlockR Blk	#33	-
OL YdsOLY	#54	#130
Stuff RateStuff	#79	#129
TackleTak	-	#78

Texas Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TEX Off	ASU Def
Pass GamePass	#61	#69
Pass SuccessPSuc	#16	#125
Pass ExplPExl	#102	#6
PPAExp	#38	#91
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#1	#134
F7 HavocF7	#33	#60
DB HavocDB	#46	#67

Arizona State on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	ASU Off	TEX Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#40	#1
SuccessSuc	#112	#14
ExplosiveExp	#90	#94
PPAPPA	#110	#15
PowerPwr	#7	#3
SP+SP+	#32	#2
Pts POPPO	#108	#38
HavocHav	#101	#21

Arizona State Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	ASU Off	TEX Def
Run GameRun	#7	#15
Run SuccessRSuc	#57	#5
Run ExplRExp	#71	#5
PPAExp	#42	#4
Run BlockR Blk	#96	-
OL YdsOLY	#62	#5
Stuff RateStuff	#18	#11
TackleTak	-	#35

Arizona State Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	ASU Off	TEX Def
Pass GamePass	#19	#1
Pass SuccessPSuc	#123	#26
Pass ExplPExl	#95	#92
PPAExp	#124	#52
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#20	#5
F7 HavocF7	#73	#37
DB HavocDB	#120	#15

Program Comparison
ASU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'24 Profile: Up to Average P4

TEX 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'24 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Texas 13.5 (52.5)
Texas won at Arizona State this year (39-31)

Previous Matchups
Texas beat Arizona State in 2024 (39-31)

TEX's OC Kyle Flood (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Quinn Ewers	293	445	66%	3472	31	12	7.8
Arch Manning	61	90	68%	938	9	2	10.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tre Wisner	226	1064	5	4.7	43
Jaydon Blue	134	730	8	5.4	77
Jerrick Gibson	78	377	4	4.8	25
Arch Manning	25	108	4	4.3	67

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Matthew Golden (Tr)	58	987	9	17.0	54
Gunnar Helm	60	786	7	13.1	49
Isaiah Bond (Tr)	34	540	5	15.9	56
DeAndre Moore Jr.	39	455	7	11.7	49

View Texas's Full Roster

TEX's DC Pete Kwiatkowski (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Anthony Hill Jr.	113	17	8	4	1
Michael Taaffe	78	6	2	1	10
Andrew Mukuba (Tr)	69	4	0	1	6
Jahdae Barron	67	3	1	2	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Colin Simmons	48	14	9	9	2
Anthony Hill Jr.	113	17	8	4	1
Trey Moore (Tr)	36	11	7	6	1
Barryn Sorrell	43	11	6	12	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jahdae Barron	67	3	1	2	10
Michael Taaffe	78	6	2	1	10
Malik Muhammad	36	1	0	0	8

ASU's OC Marcus Arroyo (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Sam Leavitt (Tr)	216	350	62%	2885	24	6	8.2
Jeff Sims (Tr)	13	25	52%	168	0	0	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cameron Skattebo	293	1715	21	5.9	53
Sam Leavitt (Tr)	110	443	5	4.0	40
Kyson Brown	73	351	2	4.8	38
DeCarlos Brooks	37	148	1	4.0	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordyn Tyson	75	1101	10	14.7	59
Cameron Skattebo	45	605	3	13.4	66
Xavier Guillory	22	339	5	15.4	61
Chamon Metayer (Tr)	32	306	5	9.6	29

View Arizona State's Full Roster

ASU's DC Brian Ward (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Myles Rowser (Tr)	98	4	1	2	4
Xavion Alford	85	0	0	1	5
Caleb McCullough	76	8	1	1	1
Shamari Simmons	72	9	0	4	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Elijah O'Neal	28	5	4	5	5
Jacob Kongaika (Tr)	10	5	3	1	0
Prince Dorbah	12	4	3	3	1
Clayton Smith	33	6	3	12	4

Pass D	Tack	PRESS	PD
Keith Abney	52	1	9
Laterrance Welch (Tr)	19	1	7
Xavion Alford	85	1	5