San José State at Texas - 2025 Matchup Preview
San José State logo San José State Spartans at Texas Longhorns(#7)Texas logo
Saturday, September 6th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Texas -37.0 (52.5) (0)  Open: -36.0 | 51.0
Texas 38 - San José State: 7

 
Spartans (0 - 2) (1 - 1 - 0)
Coach Ken Niumatalolo (7 - 5)
Avg Score : 11 - 27 (7 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.8 - 6.2 (#84)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 10)
Our Line: Texas -36   (SP+ TEX -31)
Projected Score: SJSU: 5 - TEX: 41 (46)
TEX Win prob: 100% | Cover: 57%
SJSU Travel: 1464 miles, 2 hrs behind
Longhorns (2 - 1) (0 - 3 - 0)
Coach Steve Sarkisian (36 - 16)
Avg Score : 24 - 10 (33 - 9 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.2 - 3.8 (#38)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 4) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
 
San José State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 San José State vs Central Michigan-11.550.5L 14 - 16UN
Sat 9/6 San José State at Texas+37.052.5L 7 - 38UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 San José State vs Idaho-14.5
Sat 9/27 San José State at Stanford+10
Sat 10/4 San José State vs New Mexico-8
Sat 10/11 San José State at Wyoming+6
Sat 10/18 San José State at Utah State-1
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 San José State vs Hawai'i-2.5
Sat 11/8 San José State vs Air Force-6
Sat 11/15 San José State at Nevada-5.5
Sat 11/22 San José State at San Diego State+6
Sat 11/29 San José State vs Fresno State+0.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for San José State's Schedule
Texas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Texas at Ohio State+1.546.5L 7 - 14UN
Sat 9/6 Texas vs San José State-37.052.5W 38 - 7UN
Sat 9/13 Texas vs UTEP-39.552.5W 27 - 10UN
Sat 9/20 Texas vs Sam Houston-40.551.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Texas at Florida-4
Sat 10/11 Texas vs Oklahoma+0
Sat 10/18 Texas at Kentucky-12.5
Sat 10/25 Texas at Mississippi State-7
Sat 11/1 Texas vs Vanderbilt-8.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Texas at Georgia+5
Sat 11/22 Texas vs Arkansas-11
Sat 11/29 Texas vs Texas A&M-3.5

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SJSU#132 (-.02)40% (102)10.544% (70)2.81 (86)8038% (102)2481.4 (132)#83 (.16)42% (81)2744% (93)38% (56)3.13 (55)273.51
TEX#130 (-.01)42% (86)2449% (44)3.25 (40)18232% (122)2003.25 (107)#11 (-.09)33% (25)10.335% (38)31% (24)2.58 (38)811.32
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SJSU#71 (.18)44% (56)41% (98)2.27 (133)8846% (28)3223.6 (96)#27 (.1)41% (57)42% (66)39% (47)3.58 (44)61.52.22.2
TEX#39 (.24)46% (27)49% (16)2.95 (84)15244% (43)2414.03 (54)#3 (-.01)38% (22)42% (61)34% (7)2.57 (3)44.31.41.8



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SJSU Offense210.5739.7%1.43.51832880248336%63%44%38%19%-.02
TEX Defense310.38.533.1%2.582 - - - - - 47%53%35%31%15%-.09
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SJSU Defense2273842%3.131 - - - - - 67%33%44%38%13%.16
TEX Offense32432.541.6%3.251.3193831822004.458%41%49%32%10%-.01

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
San José State228:0017.539%0%3.5273.513.50.5027
Texas331:391929%42%8.3811.323.31.3035.9
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SJSU Offense236% (134)44% (70)26.58031 (127)-.16 (132)2.81 (86)50% (124)7% (40)0.39 (136)
TEX Defense347% (49)35% (38) - - - - -.19 (8)2.11 (16)45% (17)7% (110)0.44 (2)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SJSU Defense267% (135)44% (93) - - - - .08 (76)3.08 (101)63% (43)7% (114)0.78 (30)
TEX Offense358% (23)49% (44)41.7182.34.43 (95).1 (86)3.25 (40)68% (84)6% (16)0.72 (125)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SJSU Offense263% (6)38% (102)22.5432485.8112 (102)3 (92).13 (109)1.3 (117)32% (88)21% (123)-.08 (132)11% (136)1.3 (131)
TEX Defense353% (90)31% (24) - - - - - - 3 (28)- (21)1.2 (14)31% (88)13% (7)-.13 (7)8% (26)1.2 (1)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SJSU Defense233% (3)38% (56) - - - - - - 1 (87).32 (103)1.9 (122)33% (66)14% (9).14 (41)6% (76)2.4 (118)
TEX Offense341% (114)32% (122)16.329.3200.36.812.36 (34)3 (92)-.11 (132)1.5 (78)27% (38)21% (121).13 (111)5% (57)1.8 (100)

San José State's Power Ratings
San José State's Power Rating: -6.26 #96
San José State's Offense Rating: 3.95 #111
San José State's Defense Rating: 10.21 #83
2025 Talent Rating: 504.00 #117
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
San José State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.8 - 6.2
San José State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.8 #111
San José State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.5 #108
San José State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.1 #106

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
San José State: -6.26   Texas: 26.725

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San José State: -11.8   Texas: 18.8




Texas's Power Ratings
Texas's Power Rating: 26.725 #11
Texas's Offense Rating: 15.74 #50
Texas's Defense Rating: -13.92 #1
2025 Talent Rating: 1074.00 #5
Blue Chip Ratio: 65 #6
Texas's 2025 Expected Record: 8.2 - 3.8
Texas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 18.8 #14
Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #48
Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 10.9 #1

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


San José State Scoring
Offense: 10.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 7
Defense: 27 PPG
Defense on Road: 38

San José State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Texas 41
San José State 5


Total Points: 46

Texas Scoring
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.5
Defense: 10.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 8.5

Texas's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/06Texas38San José State7TexasTexas -37.0San José State52.5Under
201709/09Texas56San José State0TexasTexas -26.5Texas63.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas210 Overs
San José State012 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 01 - 11 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 21 - 10 - 01 - 1

(#96) San José State Info
Power Rating: -6.26 #96
Offense Rating: 3.95 #111
Defense Rating: 10.21 #83
Overall SP+ Rating: -11.8 #111
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.5 #108
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.1 #106
Talent Rating: 504.00 #117
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Expected Record: 5.8 - 6.2

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 63%, Run: 36%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 1.4 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Awful OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.13 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 44%
Avg Pass Def Success 38%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

San José State has lost 1 straight
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

San José State Notes
(8/30) Off & esp run game awful vs CMU, bad start
(8/1) Top 10 fastest offense to help OL struggles LY
(7/31) RB Chalk back, better depth. More run TY?
(6/6) Spread & Shred Off = most pass heavy @ 63%
(5/4) QB Eget back, gunslinger fun, depth?
(5/4) WR rebuild, Coleman good. 4 portals added
(5/4) TE Jackson Canaan undersized but productive
(5/4) OL 4/5 back, grades are rough. No portals?
(5/4) Def bad LY, 5 portals, LB Pollard a machine
(5/4) Great job by Niumatalolo & staff with 8 W's

San José State Highlights
San José State commits very few Penalties (#1)

San José State Deficiencies
San José State has a really bad Offense
San José State has a bad TO Margin (#125)
San José State Fumbles a Lot (#128)
San José State Can Not Run the Ball (#134)
San José State offense is really bad (#102)
San José State offense is not Explosive (#134)
San José State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#132)
San José State pass game is really bad (#102)
San José State does not Sack the QB (#130)
San José State has a bad defensive line (#101)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatTEXSJSU
OverallOver#29#109
OffenseOff#66#108
DefenseDef#6#97
Special TeamsST#58#37
PassingPass#56#93
RushingRush#45#102
Run BlockRBLK#59#102
Pass BlockPBLK#54#118
Route RunningWR Rt#74#89
TacklingTkl#24#75
Run DefenseR Def#8#75
Pass Rush DefPRush#5#82
Coverage DefCov#18#115

Rematch from Week 2
Texas -37.0 (52.5)
Texas won vs San José State this year (38-7)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: SJSU | TEX
Depth Chart: SJSU | TEX
Rosters: SJSU | TEX
(#11) Texas Info
Power Rating: 26.725 #11
Offense Rating: 15.74 #50
Defense Rating: -13.92 #1
Overall SP+ Rating: 18.8 #14
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #48
Defense SP+ Rating: 10.9 #1
Talent Rating: 1074.00 #5
Blue Chip Ratio: 65 #6
Expected Record: 8.2 - 3.8

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.25 PPO
Good Run Success 49%
Awful Pass Success 32%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 33%
Good in Scoring Position 2.58 PPO
Good Run Def Success 35%
Good Pass Def Success 31%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Texas has lost 1 straight
Record at home: 2 - 0 (0 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)

Texas Notes
(9/13) Arch awful vs UTEP. Very concerning now
(8/30) Fr CB Graceson Littleton the real deal
(8/30) Arch bad vs OSU, inconsistent. OL dominated
(6/14) Only P4 w/ same HC, OC, DC, S&C for 5+ year
(6/6) WRs lost top 2, lots of talent. Top 10 via PFF?
(5/23) Secondary top 3 in CFB w/ a great CB duo
(5/19) Added QB Caldwell (Troy) post spring
(5/19) DL added 5 via portal, TE Endries (Cal) big add
(5/11) Least exp'd OL in SEC, only 1/5 starters back
(5/2) CB Muhammad, S Taaffe both top 10 via PFF

Texas Highlights
Texas is Undefeated at Home

Texas has a really good defense (#25)
Texas defense does not give up big plays (#2)
Texas has a good pass defense (#24)
Texas Defensive Line is very good (#16)
Texas Secondary is very good (#26)
Texas defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Texas Deficiencies
Texas Commits a Lot of Penalties (#121)
Texas offense is not Explosive (#132)
Texas offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#107)
Texas pass game is really bad (#122)
Texas offense is bad on 3rd Downs


  
San José State's OC Craig Stutzmann
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Walker Eget458553%496235.8
Tama Amisone010%0000.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Floyd Chalk IV208304.211
Jabari Bates104414.413
Lamar Radcliffe123102.68
Tama Amisone52304.610
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Danny Scudero (Tr)16255115.946
Kyri Shoels108708.716
Leland Smith (Tr)250125.039
Jackson Canaan63906.512

View San José State's Full Roster
San José State's DC Derrick Odum
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Pollard200012
Taniela Latu153001
Jalen Apalit-Williams140011
Noah McNeal-Franklin132000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Vili Taufatofua (Tr)82121
Jordan Pollard200012
Justin Stearns50000
Dejon Roney10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Pollard200012
Jalen Apalit-Williams140011
Isiah Revis80001

Texas's OC Kyle Flood
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Arch Manning478555%579636.8
Matthew Caldwell (Tr)2367%22007.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Arch Manning2311234.920
CJ Baxter Jr.2411004.618
Jerrick Gibson2510204.114
Tre Wisner168005.013
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Parker Livingstone8198324.883
Jack Endries (Tr)7106215.136
Ryan Wingo997110.828
DeAndre Moore Jr.63606.017

View Texas's Full Roster
Texas's DC Pete Kwiatkowski
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Michael Taaffe230000
Liona Lefau202001
Anthony Hill Jr.150000
Ty'Anthony Smith121000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Maraad Watson (Tr)92200
Zina Umeozulu31110
Hero Kanu (Tr)72131
Colin Simmons51120
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Malik Muhammad80002
Xavier Filsaime00001
Liona Lefau202001