San José State at Texas - 2025 Matchup Preview
San José State logo   San José State Spartans at Texas Longhorns  Texas logo
Saturday, September 6th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Texas -37.0 (52.5) (0)  Open: -36.0 | 51.0
Texas 38 - San José State: 7

 
Spartans (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Ken Niumatalolo (7 - 5)
Avg Score : 21 - 33 (17 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 10)
Our Line: Texas -31  (SP+ TEX -31)
Projected Score: SJSU: 11 - TEX: 42 (53)
TEX Win prob: 100% | Cover: 57%
SJSU Travel: 1464 miles, 2 hrs behind
Longhorns (10 - 3) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Steve Sarkisian (36 - 16)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (39 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 3.5 (#25)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 4) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
 
San José State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 San José State vs Central Michigan-11.550.5L 14 - 16UN
Sat 9/6 San José State at Texas+37.052.5L 7 - 38UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 San José State vs Idaho-14.551.5W 31 - 28ON
Sat 9/27 San José State at Stanford+3.049.5L 29 - 30OY
Fri 10/3 San José State vs New Mexico-1.558.5W 35 - 28OY
Sat 10/11 San José State at Wyoming-1.550.5L 28 - 35ON
Fri 10/17 San José State at Utah State+3.063.5L 25 - 30UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 San José State vs Hawai'i-2.555.5W 45 - 38OY
Sat 11/8 San José State vs Air Force-6.067.5L 16 - 26UN
Sat 11/15 San José State at Nevada-10.049.5L 10 - 55ON
Sat 11/22 San José State at San Diego State+10.050.5L 3 - 25UN
Sat 11/29 San José State vs Fresno State+3.546.0L 14 - 41ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for San José State's Schedule
Texas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Texas at Ohio State+1.546.5L 7 - 14UN
Sat 9/6 Texas vs San José State-37.052.5W 38 - 7UN
Sat 9/13 Texas vs UTEP-39.552.5W 27 - 10UN
Sat 9/20 Texas vs Sam Houston-39.551.5W 55 - 0OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Texas at Florida-4.542.5L 21 - 29ON
Sat 10/11 Texas vs Oklahoma-2.544.5W 23 - 6UY
Sat 10/18 Texas at Kentucky-12.545.5W 16 - 13UN
Sat 10/25 Texas at Mississippi State-8.548.5W 45 - 38ON
Sat 11/1 Texas vs Vanderbilt-3.548.5W 34 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Texas at Georgia+3.550.5L 10 - 35UN
Sat 11/22 Texas vs Arkansas-10.557.5W 52 - 37OY
Fri 11/28 Texas vs Texas A&M+2.554.5W 27 - 17UY
Wed 12/31 Texas vs Michigan-7.050.0W 41 - 27OY

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SJSU#71 (.18)44% (56)21.441% (98)2.27 (133)8846% (28)3223.6 (96)#27 (.1)41% (57)32.542% (66)39% (47)3.58 (44)61.52.22.2
TEX#39 (.24)46% (27)30.549% (16)2.95 (84)15244% (43)2414.03 (54)#3 (-.01)38% (22)20.342% (61)34% (7)2.57 (3)44.31.41.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SJSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TEX0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SJSU Offense1321.41743.9%3.62.222410883223.637%63%41%46%18%.18
TEX Defense1620.31738%2.571.8 - - - - - 50%50%42%34%21%-.01
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SJSU Defense1332.535.540.8%3.582.2 - - - - - 53%47%42%39%17%.1
TEX Offense1630.538.846.3%4.031.4203931522414.746%54%49%44%16%.24

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
San José State1326:2321.740%53%761.52.22.27.21.9228.5
Texas1626:4219.843%54%5.444.31.41.86.22.5131.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SJSU Offense1337% (131)41% (98)24.687.93.613 (105)-.06 (131)2.27 (133)70% (91)9% (57)0.81 (127)
TEX Defense1650% (59)42% (61) - - - - -.04 (3)2.79 (33)55% (2)14% (8)0.72 (3)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SJSU Defense1353% (94)42% (66) - - - - .03 (21)2.71 (23)77% (96)11% (41)0.86 (16)
TEX Offense1646% (98)49% (16)32.6152.24.725 (41).13 (69)2.95 (84)67% (106)11% (97)0.91 (96)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SJSU Offense1363% (3)46% (28)24.342.3321.87.613.231 (6)16 (124).33 (39)1.6 (74)30% (53)34% (46).38 (49)9% (131)2.1 (65)
TEX Defense1650% (79)34% (7) - - - - - - 20 (2).04 (3)1.4 (14)33% (53)28% (35).14 (7)8% (17)1.6 (3)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SJSU Defense1347% (43)39% (47) - - - - - - 21 (1).19 (48)1.7 (105)34% (36)29% (45).24 (38)6% (56)2.1 (87)
TEX Offense1654% (34)44% (43)19.629.5240.98.212.335 (3)12 (85).33 (34)1.7 (28)32% (71)38% (9).51 (7)5% (41)2.1 (57)

San José State's Power Ratings
San José State's Power Rating: -8.77  #95
San José State's Offense Rating: 10.64  #84
San José State's Defense Rating: 19.41  #103
2025 Talent Rating: 504.00  #117
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
San José State's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
San José State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.3  #118
San José State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.6  #108
San José State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.4  #115

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 500.89
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
San José State: -8.77   Texas: 19.545

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San José State: -14.3   Texas: 16.2




Texas's Power Ratings
Texas's Power Rating: 19.545  #14
Texas's Offense Rating: 19.54  #31
Texas's Defense Rating: 1.65  #14
2025 Talent Rating: 1074.00  #5
Blue Chip Ratio: 65  #6
Texas's 2025 Expected Record: 9.5 - 3.5
Texas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.2  #17
Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.9  #30
Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.9  #18

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


San José State Scoring
Offense: 21.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 17
Defense: 32.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.5

San José State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Texas 42
San José State 11


Projected Total Points: 53
Texas Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.8
Defense: 20.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

Texas's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/06Texas38San José State7Texas -37.0San José State52.5Under
201709/09Texas56San José State0Texas -26.5Texas63.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas210 Overs
San José State012 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 01 - 11 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 21 - 10 - 01 - 1

(#95) SJSU at (#14) TEX
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSJSUTEX
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #95 #14
SP+SP+ #118 #17
Perf GradeGrade #116 #13
OffenseOff #114 #25
DefenseDef #91 #25
Spec TeamsST #44 #41
TalentTal #117 #5
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #6
San José State Notes
(11/21) DC Derrick Odum fired after Nevada blowout
(10/18) Box score W in L @ USU, 534 yds, 8 flags + 1 TO diff
(10/18) Pass Def awful, torched for 300+ in 5 of last 6 games
(10/12) Loss @ Wyoming may end goals. Regressing hard
(9/6) Cannot kick FG, cost them opener vs CMU
(8/30) Off & esp run game awful vs CMU, bad start
(8/1) Top 10 fastest offense to help OL struggles LY
(7/31) RB Chalk back, better depth. More run TY?
(6/6) Spread & Shred Off = most pass heavy @ 63%
(5/4) QB Eget back, gunslinger fun, depth?
(5/4) WR rebuild, Coleman good. 4 portals added
(5/4) TE Jackson Canaan undersized but productive
San José State Injury Report
Texas Notes
(12/18) DC Pete Kwiatkowski fired, Will Muschamp hired
(11/2) Manning getting hot, Run Off awful. Big W vs Vandy
(10/31) QB1 Manning will start vs Vandy, was ?
(10/25) Ryan Niblett best PR in CFB, saving Horns season
(10/18) Off only 179 yds in UK win, OG'd by 200+, lucky W
(10/14) RB2 Jerrick Gibson no longer w/ program
(10/9) RB1 CJ Baxter doubtful for OU game
(10/5) The Run Off is horrific & Arch looks lost. Bad vibes
(9/13) Arch awful vs UTEP. Very concerning now
(8/30) Fr CB Graceson Littleton the real deal
(8/30) Arch bad vs OSU, inconsistent. OL dominated
(6/14) Only P4 w/ same HC, OC, DC, S&C for 5+ year
Texas Injury Report
San José State on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
SJSU OffTEX Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #114 #25
SuccessSuc #56 #22
ExplosiveExp #54 #1
PPAPPA #71 #3
PowerPwr #84 #14
SP+SP+ #108 #18
Pts POPPO #96 #3
HavocHav #110 #4
San José State Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
SJSU OffTEX Def
Run GameRun #76 #22
Run SuccessRSuc #98 #61
Run ExplRExp #127 #3
PPAExp #131 #3
Run BlockR Blk #132 -
OL YdsOLY #133 #33
Stuff RateStuff #134 #31
TackleTak -  #16
San José State Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
SJSU OffTEX Def
Pass GamePass #102 #34
Pass SuccessPSuc #28 #7
Pass ExplPExl #74 #14
PPAExp #39 #3
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #117 #18
F7 HavocF7 #57 #8
DB HavocDB #131 #17
Texas on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatTEX OffSJSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #25 #91
SuccessSuc #27 #57
ExplosiveExp #47 #48
PPAPPA #39 #27
PowerPwr #31 #103
SP+SP+ #30 #115
Pts POPPO #54 #44
HavocHav #77 #47
Texas Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TEX OffSJSU Def
Run GameRun #55 #40
Run SuccessRSuc #16 #66
Run ExplRExp #96 #16
PPAExp #69 #21
Run BlockR Blk #27 -
OL YdsOLY #84 #23
Stuff RateStuff #101 #30
TackleTak -  #107
Texas Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatTEX OffSJSU Def
Pass GamePass #15 #127
Pass SuccessPSuc #43 #47
Pass ExplPExl #28 #105
PPAExp #34 #48
Pass Block/RushP Blk #45 #96
F7 HavocF7 #97 #41
DB HavocDB #41 #56
Program Comparison
TEX 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Remains CFP Hopefuls

SJSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 2
Texas -37.0 (52.5)
Texas won vs San José State this year (38-7)

Previous Matchups
Texas beat San José State last year (38-7)

  
SJSU's OC Craig Stutzmann (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Walker Eget23239359%30581797.8
Tama Amisone265052%205034.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Steve Chavez-Soto8744875.166
Lamar Radcliffe6634015.230
Jabari Bates2719227.187
Tama Amisone3416014.723
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Danny Scudero (Tr)8812971014.772
Kyri Shoels59768213.043
Leland Smith (Tr)43695316.245
Jackson Canaan3331509.544

View San José State's Full Roster

SJSU's DC Derrick Odum (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Pollard1085344
Taniela Latu656113
Noah McNeal-Franklin636132
Jaylen Thomas591006
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Vili Taufatofua (Tr)347471
Jordan Pollard1085344
Gafa Faga476350
Quincy Likio415210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Thomas591006
Jalen Bainer441105
Jordan Pollard1085344

TEX's OC Kyle Flood (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Arch Manning24840461%31632677.8
Matthew Caldwell (Tr)81173%85107.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Wisner13159734.648
Arch Manning92399104.360
Christian Clark5523624.322
CJ Baxter Jr.5419603.618
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ryan Wingo54834715.475
DeAndre Moore Jr.38532414.046
Parker Livingstone29516617.883
Emmett Mosley V (Tr)28408314.640

View Texas's Full Roster

TEX's DC Pete Kwiatkowski (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jelani McDonald804013
Michael Taaffe701101
Anthony Hill Jr.707451
Liona Lefau682003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Colin Simmons431612152
Anthony Hill Jr.707451
Brad Spence (Tr)216320
Ethan Burke407321
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kade Phillips222006
Graceson Littleton463006
Malik Muhammad303114